2026/08/13

どこがピークか分からない

昨夜のはちと試そうとしてたボーダー値のもう少し引き下げを試してなかったので

NumberOfLeaves: 223
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 150
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0~350 = 0点, 351~1000は0.95乗に0~1000点

20回で試してみる。

[Loop 7] NDCG@1 = 0.7837
[Loop 7] NDCG@3 = 0.7878
[Loop 7] NDCG@5 = 0.8010
[Loop 7] NDCG@10 = 0.8546

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9~12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 26.71%
(78.89%)
26.41%
(78.43%)
26.91%
(78.37%)
28.33%
(92.58%)
40.64%
(98.49%)
28.31%
(84.25%)
24.93%
(75.34%)
57.25%
(77.99%)
複勝 58.32%
(84.21%)
57.61%
(82.32%)
58.51%
(85.75%)
65.83%
(89.75%)
73.06%
(91.64%)
64.40%
(86.22%)
54.96%
(82.88%)
89.58%
(83.17%)
枠連 16.00%
(86.35%)
15.83%
(90.48%)
15.50%
(81.17%)
26.26%
(109.90%)
--
(--)
18.17%
(83.93%)
14.26%
(81.68%)
30.89%
(76.82%)
馬連 12.79%
(86.50%)
12.67%
(83.56%)
12.39%
(88.91%)
20.00%
(94.75%)
23.74%
(81.10%)
15.33%
(79.86%)
10.96%
(89.20%)
25.53%
(72.94%)
ワイド 27.41%
(87.35%)
28.18%
(82.78%)
26.12%
(92.07%)
34.17%
(86.75%)
51.14%
(86.71%)
33.13%
(87.38%)
23.36%
(87.39%)
49.09%
(78.97%)
馬単 7.09%
(87.23%)
6.87%
(84.77%)
7.29%
(90.70%)
7.50%
(74.33%)
13.70%
(93.15%)
7.54%
(72.48%)
6.35%
(91.61%)
25.53%
(70.37%)
三連複 6.43%
(74.56%)
7.64%
(77.67%)
5.10%
(71.27%)
7.50%
(76.08%)
18.72%
(76.62%)
9.02%
(69.11%)
4.45%
(76.20%)
16.32%
(69.05%)
三連単 1.42%
(58.35%)
1.66%
(81.25%)
1.28%
(39.11%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
4.11%
(139.95%)
2.10%
(47.29%)
0.95%
(54.68%)
16.32%
(63.72%)
総合 59.54%
(80.35%)
58.79%
(82.49%)
59.78%
(78.40%)
66.67%
(77.31%)
77.63%
(95.38%)
64.77%
(76.32%)
56.16%
(79.87%)
89.90%
(69.26%)

[Loop 9] NDCG@1 = 0.7846
[Loop 9] NDCG@3 = 0.7875
[Loop 9] NDCG@5 = 0.8009
[Loop 9] NDCG@10 = 0.8546

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9~12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 27.24%
(80.58%)
26.88%
(80.31%)
27.52%
(79.99%)
28.33%
(92.50%)
42.92%
(106.30%)
28.18%
(81.77%)
25.50%
(77.87%)
57.86%
(78.73%)
複勝 58.90%
(84.91%)
58.44%
(83.62%)
59.05%
(86.04%)
63.33%
(87.42%)
75.34%
(96.26%)
63.78%
(84.89%)
55.79%
(83.89%)
89.64%
(83.06%)
枠連 16.13%
(84.10%)
16.54%
(90.72%)
15.18%
(76.81%)
25.25%
(105.66%)
--
(--)
17.68%
(78.54%)
14.59%
(80.61%)
30.63%
(77.07%)
馬連 12.68%
(79.84%)
13.14%
(81.89%)
11.85%
(77.37%)
17.50%
(84.67%)
23.74%
(63.84%)
14.96%
(77.11%)
10.92%
(82.19%)
24.92%
(71.79%)
ワイド 27.24%
(89.34%)
28.48%
(88.69%)
25.70%
(90.40%)
30.83%
(83.92%)
52.05%
(87.08%)
32.76%
(85.40%)
23.16%
(90.86%)
49.29%
(79.70%)
馬単 6.77%
(70.64%)
6.93%
(76.77%)
6.56%
(63.88%)
7.50%
(77.08%)
13.24%
(58.90%)
7.54%
(73.60%)
5.93%
(70.71%)
24.92%
(68.63%)
三連複 5.99%
(71.52%)
6.93%
(63.01%)
4.98%
(82.14%)
6.67%
(45.75%)
17.81%
(68.54%)
8.28%
(62.92%)
4.16%
(74.66%)
16.12%
(66.86%)
三連単 1.39%
(47.03%)
1.78%
(67.13%)
1.09%
(29.83%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
4.11%
(47.26%)
1.85%
(37.79%)
0.99%
(50.09%)
16.12%
(61.73%)
総合 60.17%
(75.88%)
59.74%
(78.77%)
60.33%
(73.29%)
64.17%
(71.37%)
79.00%
(75.45%)
64.15%
(72.75%)
57.15%
(76.36%)
90.04%
(67.90%)

[Loop 10] NDCG@1 = 0.7844
[Loop 10] NDCG@3 = 0.7878
[Loop 10] NDCG@5 = 0.8010
[Loop 10] NDCG@10 = 0.8545

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9~12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 27.06%
(80.62%)
26.52%
(79.31%)
27.52%
(80.68%)
28.33%
(98.25%)
40.18%
(98.13%)
28.31%
(83.78%)
25.46%
(77.99%)
57.25%
(78.02%)
複勝 59.02%
(85.50%)
58.97%
(84.58%)
58.69%
(86.22%)
64.17%
(88.58%)
71.23%
(89.54%)
64.65%
(85.80%)
56.04%
(85.03%)
89.84%
(83.71%)
枠連 15.80%
(84.43%)
15.61%
(88.64%)
15.44%
(77.59%)
24.24%
(133.03%)
--
(--)
17.43%
(80.68%)
14.26%
(80.32%)
31.05%
(77.78%)
馬連 12.42%
(81.97%)
12.55%
(82.26%)
11.85%
(79.65%)
18.33%
(109.75%)
23.74%
(64.06%)
14.83%
(78.60%)
10.59%
(84.71%)
25.18%
(71.98%)
ワイド 27.09%
(89.42%)
28.30%
(90.17%)
25.46%
(88.56%)
32.50%
(90.58%)
51.60%
(85.30%)
33.37%
(85.48%)
22.79%
(91.10%)
49.03%
(80.10%)
馬単 6.54%
(73.74%)
6.51%
(75.82%)
6.50%
(68.33%)
7.50%
(118.67%)
14.61%
(68.63%)
7.17%
(75.83%)
5.60%
(73.50%)
25.18%
(68.48%)
三連複 6.11%
(76.08%)
7.10%
(69.60%)
5.04%
(84.08%)
6.67%
(57.42%)
18.72%
(79.91%)
8.41%
(69.33%)
4.20%
(77.98%)
16.03%
(70.19%)
三連単 1.33%
(45.04%)
1.66%
(54.62%)
1.03%
(23.86%)
0.83%
(200.75%)
5.02%
(61.42%)
1.98%
(65.22%)
0.78%
(36.84%)
16.03%
(66.39%)
総合 60.38%
(77.00%)
60.33%
(77.90%)
60.09%
(73.60%)
65.00%
(111.66%)
76.26%
(78.14%)
65.02%
(78.09%)
57.40%
(75.93%)
90.16%
(70.53%)

[Loop 11] NDCG@1 = 0.7833
[Loop 11] NDCG@3 = 0.7884
[Loop 11] NDCG@5 = 0.8011
[Loop 11] NDCG@10 = 0.8544

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9~12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 27.21%
(79.11%)
26.70%
(76.85%)
27.46%
(79.95%)
30.83%
(99.58%)
40.18%
(100.23%)
28.68%
(80.66%)
25.55%
(76.70%)
57.83%
(77.97%)
複勝 58.96%
(84.86%)
58.14%
(82.61%)
59.42%
(87.03%)
64.17%
(86.83%)
73.97%
(93.06%)
63.66%
(84.14%)
56.04%
(84.36%)
90.22%
(83.78%)
枠連 15.61%
(79.31%)
15.76%
(85.74%)
14.80%
(71.63%)
26.26%
(110.00%)
--
(--)
17.31%
(74.13%)
14.05%
(76.01%)
31.44%
(78.70%)
馬連 12.50%
(80.60%)
12.91%
(82.16%)
11.60%
(78.39%)
19.17%
(89.08%)
24.20%
(64.34%)
14.71%
(73.13%)
10.71%
(84.57%)
25.56%
(72.86%)
ワイド 27.26%
(84.65%)
28.36%
(83.94%)
25.76%
(85.71%)
32.50%
(80.00%)
52.05%
(86.30%)
33.37%
(87.05%)
22.99%
(83.70%)
49.49%
(78.85%)
馬単 6.71%
(72.71%)
6.81%
(74.66%)
6.44%
(71.26%)
9.17%
(65.17%)
12.33%
(53.65%)
7.66%
(66.67%)
5.89%
(76.44%)
25.56%
(69.56%)
三連複 6.19%
(65.45%)
7.22%
(68.45%)
5.16%
(64.39%)
5.83%
(37.67%)
18.72%
(76.07%)
8.90%
(68.47%)
4.16%
(63.48%)
16.67%
(69.43%)
三連単 1.33%
(56.14%)
1.78%
(85.25%)
0.97%
(30.36%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
3.65%
(40.00%)
2.10%
(49.25%)
0.87%
(59.90%)
16.67%
(64.34%)
総合 60.03%
(75.30%)
59.50%
(79.84%)
60.21%
(71.09%)
65.00%
(70.17%)
78.54%
(73.38%)
63.91%
(72.94%)
57.07%
(75.64%)
90.59%
(69.61%)

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