ボーダーの癖?

ボーダーを0にする時と500にする時でNDCGがボーダー0の時は高く、ボーダー500の時には低くなるのは、何度も学習させてきて分かってます。今朝出勤前に

NumberOfLeaves: 399
NumberOfIterations: 1500
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 80
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点

で40回スタートしてました。微妙な感じですが7回目にNDCG@1=0.7803 NDCG@3=0.7832

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.87% (82.19%)	27.47% (81.89%)	28.07% (81.91%)	30.83% (90.33%)	35.62% (80.50%)	29.17% (83.62%)	26.74% (81.87%)	58.09% (78.98%)
複勝	58.47% (83.66%)	58.02% (82.78%)	58.63% (84.40%)	62.50% (85.92%)	68.49% (84.84%)	63.66% (84.08%)	55.83% (83.42%)	89.78% (82.63%)
枠連	15.90% (81.41%)	16.18% (88.48%)	15.12% (73.47%)	24.24% (107.17%)	-- (--)	18.54% (81.40%)	14.01% (76.25%)	30.69% (77.15%)
馬連	12.50% (76.87%)	13.14% (79.53%)	11.60% (74.47%)	15.83% (72.25%)	24.66% (65.98%)	15.57% (83.00%)	10.38% (75.80%)	25.44% (73.67%)
ワイド	26.74% (84.81%)	28.24% (88.47%)	25.09% (82.22%)	28.33% (68.92%)	50.23% (81.51%)	32.63% (85.95%)	22.66% (84.73%)	48.97% (79.24%)
馬単	6.57% (73.13%)	6.57% (75.58%)	6.38% (69.43%)	9.17% (89.17%)	13.24% (62.83%)	7.66% (85.70%)	5.60% (69.86%)	25.44% (71.42%)
三連複	6.22% (71.75%)	7.10% (55.24%)	5.29% (88.28%)	6.67% (77.50%)	19.18% (78.13%)	8.41% (71.05%)	4.33% (71.41%)	16.61% (83.00%)
三連単	1.33% (46.97%)	1.72% (54.21%)	0.97% (28.32%)	0.83% (200.75%)	4.11% (49.00%)	2.22% (84.77%)	0.78% (34.18%)	16.61% (75.50%)
総合	59.71% (75.01%)	59.15% (75.50%)	59.90% (72.81%)	65.00% (98.82%)	72.60% (71.83%)	64.40% (82.45%)	56.98% (72.19%)	90.04% (76.47%)

後は18回目にNDCG@1=0.7794 NDCG@3=0.7833

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.61% (79.21%)	27.29% (81.05%)	27.64% (76.51%)	31.67% (90.42%)	38.36% (87.31%)	28.31% (78.00%)	26.41% (78.89%)	58.58% (78.52%)
複勝	58.84% (83.77%)	58.02% (83.11%)	59.30% (84.30%)	64.17% (85.83%)	70.32% (87.21%)	64.03% (84.30%)	56.08% (83.28%)	89.58% (82.07%)
枠連	16.39% (84.10%)	16.47% (88.41%)	16.01% (79.51%)	21.21% (95.76%)	-- (--)	18.05% (79.46%)	14.79% (80.31%)	31.44% (79.58%)
馬連	12.85% (82.76%)	13.20% (81.72%)	12.21% (84.02%)	16.67% (80.00%)	23.74% (62.24%)	15.45% (84.96%)	11.00% (83.88%)	25.64% (74.32%)
ワイド	27.96% (90.02%)	28.77% (92.31%)	26.85% (88.20%)	31.67% (82.83%)	51.60% (83.61%)	33.00% (89.33%)	24.15% (90.83%)	49.12% (77.96%)
馬単	7.03% (77.15%)	6.57% (66.61%)	7.29% (86.06%)	10.00% (103.17%)	14.61% (66.71%)	7.42% (76.39%)	6.22% (78.34%)	25.64% (71.84%)
三連複	6.05% (67.82%)	6.75% (56.05%)	5.29% (80.05%)	6.67% (65.75%)	16.89% (60.18%)	8.41% (62.69%)	4.29% (70.22%)	16.70% (75.42%)
三連単	1.48% (51.70%)	1.66% (46.97%)	1.28% (44.19%)	1.67% (221.25%)	4.11% (47.72%)	2.10% (80.14%)	1.03% (42.58%)	16.70% (68.49%)
総合	60.12% (76.97%)	59.33% (74.24%)	60.63% (77.85%)	64.17% (103.29%)	74.89% (70.71%)	64.52% (79.41%)	57.31% (76.04%)	89.90% (72.45%)

こちらは随分と頑張ってる感じがしますが、でも、もう一押し欲しいんだよね。今回、まあ、ボーダー0は一区切りして、ボーダー500を攻める予定なんだけど、流石に葉を399までしたし、葉の最初も80にあげてるので、モデルサイズが13MB超えにはなってます。自分の感覚的にはやはりボーダー500の方が検証結果的には上かな?

モデルサイズ的にはまたもう少し肥大化しても耐えられそうなので、攻めようかと思うけど、まあ、正攻法的には多分葉を増やすんだと思うので、ここは葉を415にして20回試してみます。20回なら寝る前に条件替えて40回とかも行けるしね。

追記 2026.8.4 5:30

NumberOfLeaves: 447
NumberOfIterations: 1500
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 80
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点

昨夜はこれで40回スタートして寝たんですが、思いのほか良くなかった。唯一16回目のNDCG@1=0.7804 NDCG@3=0.7835に期待したが

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.90% (81.33%)	27.29% (81.18%)	28.13% (80.43%)	33.33% (95.67%)	36.99% (81.64%)	29.05% (84.14%)	26.70% (80.36%)	58.47% (79.10%)
複勝	58.78% (83.62%)	58.50% (83.74%)	58.57% (83.07%)	65.83% (89.33%)	71.23% (86.62%)	63.91% (84.59%)	55.95% (83.02%)	89.70% (82.89%)
枠連	16.65% (85.36%)	16.18% (86.59%)	16.52% (83.68%)	25.25% (94.55%)	-- (--)	18.79% (83.87%)	14.87% (80.44%)	31.34% (79.20%)
馬連	13.20% (83.10%)	13.08% (79.25%)	12.82% (87.02%)	20.00% (83.50%)	24.20% (65.57%)	16.32% (88.07%)	11.17% (83.02%)	25.90% (82.17%)
ワイド	27.21% (83.47%)	28.18% (83.30%)	25.88% (84.36%)	31.67% (73.75%)	50.23% (84.06%)	32.26% (82.90%)	23.44% (83.61%)	49.35% (81.98%)
馬単	6.95% (70.58%)	6.39% (65.21%)	7.11% (74.48%)	12.50% (92.67%)	12.79% (59.77%)	8.16% (74.82%)	6.02% (70.14%)	25.90% (79.74%)
三連複	6.28% (75.46%)	6.99% (57.59%)	5.47% (93.54%)	7.50% (79.00%)	18.72% (75.43%)	8.41% (62.40%)	4.45% (79.81%)	16.85% (74.42%)
三連単	1.48% (45.64%)	1.66% (45.38%)	1.34% (45.16%)	0.83% (56.08%)	4.57% (52.60%)	2.35% (52.26%)	0.91% (42.81%)	16.85% (69.37%)
総合	60.00% (75.94%)	59.62% (72.49%)	59.96% (78.94%)	65.83% (82.81%)	74.43% (72.24%)	64.40% (76.63%)	57.23% (75.40%)	90.07% (74.59%)

これでは全然ダメだし、その前15回目のNDCG@1=0.7784 NDCG@3=0.7831

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.90% (80.76%)	26.88% (78.98%)	28.61% (81.65%)	32.50% (93.42%)	38.36% (86.39%)	29.17% (79.63%)	26.53% (80.62%)	58.32% (78.57%)
複勝	58.84% (83.85%)	58.02% (82.42%)	59.23% (85.23%)	65.00% (85.08%)	72.60% (89.41%)	63.78% (83.63%)	55.95% (83.42%)	89.73% (82.89%)
枠連	16.35% (85.06%)	16.11% (88.18%)	16.20% (81.33%)	22.22% (99.80%)	-- (--)	19.04% (87.52%)	14.42% (78.84%)	31.83% (79.55%)
馬連	12.91% (84.09%)	13.14% (82.02%)	12.39% (86.81%)	16.67% (75.92%)	23.74% (61.32%)	16.32% (91.73%)	10.80% (83.60%)	25.88% (74.58%)
ワイド	27.03% (86.17%)	28.30% (84.59%)	25.64% (89.13%)	28.33% (68.00%)	49.32% (79.73%)	32.26% (85.27%)	23.28% (87.06%)	49.23% (79.26%)
馬単	6.69% (71.72%)	6.51% (67.68%)	6.74% (74.90%)	8.33% (85.00%)	12.79% (54.47%)	8.41% (87.29%)	5.56% (68.09%)	25.88% (71.70%)
三連複	6.02% (63.57%)	6.81% (50.91%)	5.16% (76.70%)	6.67% (61.58%)	18.26% (65.98%)	8.28% (58.07%)	4.16% (65.18%)	16.56% (78.49%)
三連単	1.30% (35.80%)	1.54% (34.95%)	1.15% (39.28%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.65% (39.91%)	2.35% (54.75%)	0.74% (29.11%)	16.56% (71.45%)
総合	60.00% (73.72%)	59.21% (70.86%)	60.45% (76.85%)	65.00% (70.46%)	76.26% (68.17%)	64.40% (78.49%)	57.07% (71.99%)	90.04% (74.30%)

やはりこれでは更にダメだ。むやみに葉を増やしてもダメな事は分かった。これらは既に15MB超えてるし^^;

目指すべきもの

サボってはないですよ(笑) 今週末も学習させながらコーディングもしてます。まあ、AIとじゃれてるってのもあるが^^; 先日書いたEarlyStoppingRoundの現状バージョンでは実装不可ってのをAIではなく人間が挑んだらどうかって事で今週末やってるんだけど、まあ、結局AIのサポートも受けないと出来ないので「じゃれてる」って事になる(笑) これ、実際にはそれ程重要な事でもない気もしてるが、もし実装できればそれはそれでね。でも、結局は諦める事に^^;

多分、実装するのに必要なスキルがGeminiにもCopilotにも、更には自分にも無いのが原因な気もするし、そもそもML.NET側のバグかもしれませんが、ここはそれ以上の追及はしない事にしました。

で、ランキング学習ですが、モデルのダイエットも兼ねてイテレーション数を減らしました。これね、EarlyStoppingRoundが実装出来れば、また違った感じに出来たかもですが、実装出来なかったものを期待しても仕方がないので人力で変更(笑)

NumberOfLeaves: 335
NumberOfIterations: 1500
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 60
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～0 = 0点, 1～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点

これならモデルは11.8MB程度。NDCG@1=0.7815 NDCG@3=0.7857

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.55% (81.67%)	27.35% (79.93%)	27.52% (81.68%)	30.83% (105.92%)	38.81% (96.48%)	29.30% (82.06%)	25.96% (80.20%)	57.37% (77.80%)
複勝	59.25% (84.84%)	58.61% (83.02%)	59.42% (86.32%)	65.83% (90.17%)	72.15% (90.23%)	64.28% (84.92%)	56.41% (84.33%)	89.41% (82.12%)
枠連	16.16% (84.76%)	16.11% (92.95%)	15.69% (76.75%)	24.24% (95.35%)	-- (--)	17.92% (81.04%)	14.54% (80.62%)	31.64% (81.19%)
馬連	12.45% (79.42%)	12.79% (85.97%)	11.73% (73.04%)	17.50% (74.75%)	23.29% (63.20%)	14.96% (81.72%)	10.63% (80.12%)	25.79% (73.91%)
ワイド	27.38% (87.86%)	28.36% (92.94%)	26.12% (83.69%)	30.83% (73.50%)	49.77% (82.65%)	33.25% (84.89%)	23.40% (89.32%)	49.18% (76.86%)
馬単	6.74% (75.54%)	7.28% (88.57%)	6.14% (63.86%)	7.50% (52.33%)	12.79% (60.09%)	8.03% (88.05%)	5.77% (72.76%)	25.79% (71.82%)
三連複	5.93% (58.39%)	6.87% (59.60%)	5.04% (59.33%)	5.00% (28.50%)	18.72% (75.16%)	8.03% (67.86%)	4.08% (53.72%)	16.06% (70.26%)
三連単	1.33% (60.44%)	1.60% (85.24%)	1.15% (39.39%)	0.00% (0.00%)	4.11% (47.53%)	1.73% (74.83%)	0.95% (56.80%)	16.06% (67.16%)
総合	60.55% (76.50%)	59.80% (83.33%)	60.87% (70.47%)	66.67% (64.39%)	77.17% (73.62%)	64.65% (80.67%)	57.68% (74.73%)	89.81% (71.32%)

相変わらずのあと一歩なモデルなのは変わらないけど、ダイエットしてるのでもう少し攻められる。NDCG@1=0.7820 NDCG@3=0.7854

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.24% (81.13%)	27.29% (82.55%)	26.79% (77.65%)	32.50% (108.92%)	38.81% (91.96%)	28.18% (83.20%)	25.88% (79.46%)	56.93% (77.32%)
複勝	58.90% (84.20%)	58.61% (83.71%)	58.75% (84.50%)	65.00% (87.08%)	71.69% (87.53%)	63.41% (84.78%)	56.24% (83.71%)	89.52% (82.18%)
枠連	16.13% (83.83%)	16.04% (86.99%)	15.50% (79.60%)	27.27% (106.16%)	-- (--)	17.80% (77.00%)	14.54% (80.79%)	30.86% (77.79%)
馬連	12.56% (77.46%)	12.79% (79.80%)	11.66% (73.48%)	21.67% (99.08%)	25.11% (76.76%)	15.20% (76.35%)	10.55% (77.89%)	24.75% (69.30%)
ワイド	27.06% (85.95%)	28.24% (88.86%)	25.27% (82.50%)	35.00% (92.50%)	50.68% (83.33%)	33.37% (84.97%)	22.83% (86.52%)	48.65% (76.99%)
馬単	6.63% (67.83%)	6.81% (73.76%)	5.95% (59.51%)	13.33% (98.42%)	13.24% (81.28%)	7.54% (59.34%)	5.73% (69.44%)	24.75% (66.90%)
三連複	5.88% (65.02%)	6.81% (67.37%)	4.80% (62.58%)	7.50% (65.50%)	16.89% (64.25%)	8.16% (74.55%)	4.12% (61.92%)	16.15% (65.54%)
三連単	1.48% (68.58%)	1.84% (95.44%)	1.15% (44.36%)	0.83% (22.67%)	4.11% (136.53%)	1.85% (54.04%)	1.11% (67.29%)	16.15% (59.60%)
総合	60.26% (76.65%)	59.92% (82.21%)	60.21% (70.47%)	65.83% (84.57%)	75.34% (88.81%)	63.78% (74.28%)	57.73% (75.88%)	89.78% (66.10%)

NDCG的には随分と上がってるのは、やはりボーダーを0にしたからなんだとは思うけど、検証結果が付いてこない。

NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 1500
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 70
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～0 = 0点, 1～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点

葉の最小を増やして3回目にNDCG@1=0.7821 NDCG@3=0.7862

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.47% (81.67%)	27.53% (83.87%)	26.97% (77.59%)	33.33% (106.50%)	40.18% (100.14%)	29.30% (85.14%)	25.71% (78.84%)	56.87% (76.86%)
複勝	59.39% (85.35%)	59.03% (84.45%)	59.42% (86.25%)	64.17% (85.50%)	72.15% (89.82%)	64.28% (85.44%)	56.61% (84.91%)	89.78% (82.14%)
枠連	15.77% (81.52%)	16.18% (90.06%)	14.87% (72.92%)	24.24% (96.67%)	-- (--)	18.05% (81.74%)	14.01% (76.27%)	30.89% (77.19%)
馬連	12.27% (78.84%)	12.73% (83.10%)	11.36% (74.08%)	18.33% (84.00%)	22.83% (61.96%)	14.96% (82.47%)	10.42% (79.15%)	25.01% (68.71%)
ワイド	27.41% (84.63%)	29.07% (87.19%)	25.52% (82.90%)	30.00% (72.33%)	51.60% (86.26%)	33.37% (87.10%)	23.24% (83.66%)	48.36% (76.42%)
馬単	6.31% (68.37%)	6.39% (76.10%)	5.89% (60.24%)	10.83% (71.08%)	12.33% (56.58%)	7.54% (81.73%)	5.36% (64.98%)	25.01% (66.39%)
三連複	6.02% (64.56%)	6.93% (58.54%)	4.98% (69.06%)	7.50% (87.50%)	18.72% (76.35%)	7.91% (65.86%)	4.24% (63.06%)	16.27% (69.04%)
三連単	1.22% (43.79%)	1.48% (63.64%)	0.91% (21.74%)	1.67% (67.08%)	3.65% (38.49%)	1.98% (97.54%)	0.74% (26.36%)	16.27% (63.96%)
総合	60.43% (73.48%)	60.21% (78.12%)	60.33% (68.07%)	65.00% (83.55%)	75.80% (72.80%)	64.77% (83.38%)	57.60% (69.65%)	90.10% (68.35%)

そろそろ今は10回でパラメーター変えてるけど、回数増やす段階なのかも?

追記 2026.8.3 5:48
昨夜40回スタートさせて寝ました。

NumberOfLeaves: 399
NumberOfIterations: 1500
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 80
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～0 = 0点, 1～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点

16回目のNDCG@1=0.7829 NDCG@3=0.7863

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.09% (79.08%)	26.52% (78.95%)	27.40% (77.35%)	30.83% (104.67%)	39.27% (94.84%)	29.05% (84.41%)	25.34% (75.88%)	57.66% (78.07%)
複勝	59.48% (85.44%)	59.09% (84.49%)	59.72% (86.60%)	61.67% (82.83%)	72.60% (89.59%)	63.91% (84.54%)	56.82% (85.36%)	89.67% (82.85%)
枠連	15.93% (81.69%)	15.83% (85.42%)	15.50% (77.05%)	24.24% (102.42%)	-- (--)	17.80% (78.78%)	14.30% (77.48%)	31.21% (78.45%)
馬連	12.27% (76.84%)	12.43% (75.16%)	11.73% (78.43%)	17.50% (78.75%)	22.83% (62.97%)	14.83% (76.58%)	10.47% (78.18%)	25.38% (73.11%)
ワイド	26.66% (83.03%)	27.95% (83.48%)	25.03% (82.92%)	30.83% (78.33%)	49.32% (81.60%)	32.63% (87.17%)	22.62% (81.78%)	48.71% (77.82%)
馬単	6.25% (64.27%)	5.98% (61.09%)	6.44% (68.64%)	7.50% (49.17%)	12.33% (58.31%)	7.29% (61.72%)	5.36% (65.66%)	25.38% (70.63%)
三連複	6.11% (62.79%)	7.22% (62.24%)	4.92% (63.78%)	6.67% (57.00%)	18.26% (72.47%)	8.28% (71.90%)	4.29% (58.88%)	16.03% (67.55%)
三連単	1.36% (48.76%)	1.66% (62.39%)	1.15% (38.32%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.65% (42.24%)	1.98% (43.75%)	0.95% (51.02%)	16.03% (62.12%)
総合	60.64% (72.62%)	60.27% (73.91%)	60.87% (71.61%)	62.50% (68.40%)	77.17% (71.72%)	64.40% (73.60%)	57.89% (71.78%)	90.01% (68.38%)

NDCG的に高いと思ったけど、結果は微妙なままorz

AIに騙される

ここ数日はGeminiに騙されて無駄な時間を費やし、昨夜、CopilotにGeminiに騙されたけどお前は出来る?って訊くと自信満々に言うので、仕事終えて帰宅して、ではお願いって感じでコード提示してもらうと、まあ、想定内でGeminiとは大差ない。で、まあ、問い詰めるとサラッと謝罪する始末(笑)

じゃあ、ああっ、その過程でやってたのはEarlyStoppingRoundの導入なんだが、結局どちらもこれの実装はまだ完璧じゃないから利用出来ないって事でした。そこで、ここまでの最適パラメーターを見せてどうすれば良いかを尋ねると

NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～0 = 0点, 1～1000は1.5乗に0～1000点

を試してみればって事で、3回目でNDCG@1=0.7824 NDCG@3=0.7872

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.35% (80.25%)	27.29% (81.60%)	27.10% (77.28%)	31.67% (101.92%)	40.64% (99.36%)	29.17% (83.76%)	25.55% (77.35%)	57.60% (78.62%)
複勝	59.39% (85.70%)	59.09% (84.51%)	59.23% (86.63%)	65.83% (89.58%)	73.06% (91.96%)	64.65% (86.08%)	56.41% (85.00%)	89.61% (82.51%)
枠連	16.29% (86.35%)	16.68% (93.95%)	15.31% (78.28%)	26.26% (106.57%)	-- (--)	17.80% (78.60%)	14.75% (83.46%)	31.21% (77.77%)
馬連	12.82% (82.86%)	13.32% (85.94%)	11.85% (78.49%)	19.17% (99.42%)	26.48% (83.70%)	14.83% (76.61%)	10.92% (84.87%)	25.27% (70.07%)
ワイド	27.73% (87.22%)	29.19% (87.29%)	25.82% (87.26%)	33.33% (85.58%)	50.68% (82.79%)	32.39% (81.48%)	24.10% (89.53%)	49.06% (76.98%)
馬単	6.66% (69.26%)	6.81% (70.12%)	6.20% (66.33%)	10.83% (97.33%)	14.16% (64.70%)	7.54% (64.09%)	5.69% (71.39%)	25.27% (67.88%)
三連複	6.08% (63.37%)	7.10% (63.74%)	4.86% (61.37%)	8.33% (85.83%)	19.63% (86.71%)	8.41% (75.36%)	4.08% (57.27%)	16.12% (64.42%)
三連単	1.51% (56.85%)	1.84% (68.04%)	1.15% (44.25%)	1.67% (72.08%)	5.02% (56.35%)	1.98% (52.34%)	1.03% (58.39%)	16.12% (58.62%)
総合	60.49% (76.35%)	60.39% (79.09%)	60.15% (72.45%)	66.67% (91.97%)	77.63% (80.80%)	65.14% (74.79%)	57.40% (75.91%)	90.01% (65.79%)

これまでのボーダー500より、ボーダー0にするとNDCGの値が良くなるのは理解してるけど、複勝だけはちょっと頑張ってる。18回目のNDCG@1=0.7829 NDCG@3=0.7867

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.73% (80.96%)	27.24% (80.04%)	27.89% (80.21%)	32.50% (104.33%)	37.44% (93.42%)	29.17% (80.49%)	26.37% (80.00%)	57.60% (78.22%)
複勝	59.07% (84.68%)	58.85% (83.96%)	58.75% (84.98%)	66.67% (90.75%)	73.97% (92.60%)	63.66% (83.77%)	56.20% (84.27%)	89.67% (83.05%)
枠連	16.03% (83.18%)	15.61% (86.64%)	15.88% (79.14%)	24.24% (98.18%)	-- (--)	17.80% (76.30%)	14.42% (80.20%)	31.05% (78.20%)
馬連	12.56% (81.99%)	12.49% (79.22%)	12.21% (85.05%)	18.33% (78.83%)	23.29% (69.36%)	15.08% (77.91%)	10.75% (84.49%)	25.35% (71.42%)
ワイド	27.47% (86.09%)	28.06% (83.47%)	26.43% (88.83%)	33.33% (85.25%)	51.14% (93.97%)	32.88% (83.16%)	23.53% (86.35%)	49.32% (78.07%)
馬単	6.86% (78.33%)	6.75% (78.32%)	6.87% (79.87%)	8.33% (57.42%)	11.87% (54.29%)	8.41% (86.74%)	5.89% (77.70%)	25.35% (68.80%)
三連複	6.05% (62.14%)	6.81% (59.24%)	5.22% (66.31%)	6.67% (45.75%)	17.81% (75.80%)	8.41% (77.75%)	4.20% (55.71%)	16.44% (70.21%)
三連単	1.36% (61.43%)	1.66% (79.55%)	1.09% (45.66%)	0.83% (22.67%)	2.28% (23.33%)	2.35% (87.06%)	0.95% (56.32%)	16.44% (64.98%)
総合	60.17% (77.27%)	59.98% (78.64%)	59.84% (76.24%)	67.50% (72.33%)	78.54% (71.83%)	64.03% (81.65%)	57.23% (75.63%)	90.01% (69.71%)

これもダメかぁ。

でまあ、Gainsを工夫しろって事でコードで

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	25.62% (77.20%)	25.04% (75.55%)	26.18% (78.92%)	25.83% (76.92%)	33.79% (73.70%)	28.18% (81.66%)	24.02% (76.03%)	55.77% (76.63%)
複勝	55.54% (83.92%)	55.65% (83.08%)	54.86% (84.27%)	63.33% (91.08%)	68.49% (88.26%)	59.33% (81.98%)	53.11% (84.18%)	87.73% (82.03%)
枠連	15.38% (89.32%)	14.27% (84.13%)	16.07% (92.76%)	20.20% (108.38%)	-- (--)	16.44% (77.81%)	14.05% (87.48%)	28.88% (76.96%)
馬連	11.61% (92.01%)	11.07% (77.84%)	11.91% (107.61%)	15.00% (77.67%)	23.29% (111.23%)	12.98% (73.28%)	10.09% (96.53%)	23.79% (78.95%)
ワイド	24.72% (85.69%)	24.75% (79.01%)	24.18% (92.62%)	31.67% (84.58%)	47.03% (97.17%)	29.17% (78.73%)	21.22% (86.97%)	45.56% (81.76%)
馬単	6.14% (71.47%)	5.62% (58.18%)	6.62% (85.97%)	6.67% (59.67%)	11.42% (87.03%)	7.05% (59.56%)	5.36% (74.04%)	23.79% (73.98%)
三連複	5.50% (87.77%)	6.69% (79.99%)	4.50% (101.08%)	2.50% (14.75%)	15.53% (199.45%)	7.17% (72.16%)	4.04% (82.89%)	15.69% (77.74%)
三連単	1.33% (90.34%)	1.48% (46.63%)	1.28% (141.79%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.65% (41.42%)	1.11% (47.76%)	1.19% (108.95%)	15.69% (75.39%)
総合	57.11% (84.65%)	57.37% (72.82%)	56.32% (98.16%)	64.17% (63.14%)	73.97% (99.75%)	60.82% (71.62%)	54.35% (87.14%)	87.99% (76.59%)

まあ、結果的に不採用なコードとなる^^;

既に手詰まり一歩手前

ここまでパラメーターを色々と変えて試すもこれといったものが得られない。先日ゲリラ雷雨で中断してたパターンを昨晩50回やったけど、結局あの2回目超えるものは出なかった。これ、単に運が悪いだけかもですが、まあ、そんなものです。次の一手は乗数をチョイ上げてみた。40回でスタート。

NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.82乗に0～1000点

1回目でNDCG@1=0.7800 NDCG@3=0.7831

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.61% (77.87%)	26.70% (77.25%)	28.19% (77.19%)	32.50% (95.92%)	37.90% (84.16%)	28.55% (76.66%)	26.37% (77.70%)	58.52% (78.53%)
複勝	58.70% (83.49%)	58.14% (82.92%)	58.75% (83.51%)	65.83% (91.33%)	70.32% (84.93%)	63.41% (83.44%)	56.08% (83.38%)	89.49% (83.08%)
枠連	17.07% (90.52%)	17.03% (95.58%)	16.84% (86.45%)	21.21% (83.03%)	-- (--)	18.67% (85.65%)	15.45% (86.39%)	31.89% (78.75%)
馬連	13.37% (86.98%)	13.56% (83.95%)	13.00% (91.73%)	15.83% (64.50%)	24.66% (65.84%)	15.82% (87.47%)	11.54% (88.73%)	26.40% (75.04%)
ワイド	28.05% (87.35%)	28.83% (84.34%)	27.10% (90.83%)	30.00% (81.92%)	51.60% (83.93%)	33.00% (85.12%)	24.27% (88.40%)	49.84% (80.63%)
馬単	7.44% (84.03%)	7.16% (76.49%)	7.59% (93.62%)	9.17% (58.58%)	13.70% (63.74%)	8.28% (86.24%)	6.59% (85.12%)	26.40% (72.51%)
三連複	6.28% (72.49%)	6.81% (49.44%)	5.65% (96.16%)	7.50% (72.08%)	19.18% (69.41%)	8.78% (70.06%)	4.29% (73.57%)	17.02% (76.78%)
三連単	1.24% (44.93%)	1.36% (47.99%)	1.22% (45.07%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.65% (33.52%)	1.98% (60.41%)	0.78% (40.80%)	17.02% (68.59%)
総合	60.09% (78.29%)	59.56% (74.30%)	60.15% (83.05%)	66.67% (68.09%)	73.97% (69.36%)	64.03% (79.38%)	57.52% (78.01%)	89.84% (72.92%)

なんか出だしだけで決まるのかも?って思えたりもしますが、まあ、期待して明日の朝まで放置かな^^

3回目でNDCG@1=0.7809 NDCG@3=0.7835

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.70% (79.81%)	27.06% (82.02%)	27.95% (75.58%)	33.33% (106.92%)	36.53% (78.81%)	28.18% (82.11%)	26.74% (79.14%)	58.15% (77.84%)
複勝	59.36% (85.24%)	58.50% (83.82%)	59.78% (86.31%)	65.83% (90.50%)	70.78% (85.07%)	63.78% (85.48%)	56.86% (85.18%)	89.35% (82.51%)
枠連	16.90% (87.83%)	16.75% (92.75%)	16.58% (82.13%)	24.24% (108.59%)	-- (--)	18.05% (78.49%)	15.45% (85.37%)	31.73% (77.31%)
馬連	13.05% (85.02%)	13.20% (85.69%)	12.64% (84.36%)	16.67% (84.75%)	23.29% (62.19%)	15.20% (83.19%)	11.41% (87.70%)	25.99% (73.68%)
ワイド	27.73% (86.09%)	28.42% (85.33%)	26.79% (87.26%)	30.83% (80.75%)	49.77% (82.74%)	32.39% (86.03%)	24.19% (86.42%)	49.55% (80.05%)
馬単	6.63% (74.16%)	6.51% (77.17%)	6.44% (68.72%)	10.83% (106.33%)	10.96% (46.62%)	7.05% (72.48%)	6.10% (77.20%)	25.99% (70.85%)
三連複	6.40% (72.63%)	7.40% (61.82%)	5.29% (82.28%)	7.50% (92.42%)	18.26% (60.87%)	8.78% (69.44%)	4.53% (74.75%)	16.85% (73.81%)
三連単	1.42% (61.01%)	1.72% (77.84%)	1.09% (29.47%)	1.67% (256.83%)	3.20% (33.74%)	1.85% (82.94%)	1.11% (56.16%)	16.85% (69.20%)
総合	60.69% (78.85%)	59.92% (80.55%)	61.00% (74.47%)	67.50% (116.05%)	74.89% (64.29%)	64.40% (80.02%)	58.18% (78.99%)	89.64% (72.51%)

さてと、これ以上を期待して寝ます。

追記 2026.7.29 20:30
昨夜はあの後もあまり良い感じなのは出ずに17回目のNDCG@1=0.7800 NDCG@3=0.7837

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	28.42% (84.23%)	27.95% (85.71%)	28.61% (81.18%)	32.50% (105.33%)	37.90% (85.39%)	30.04% (86.38%)	27.03% (83.42%)	58.21% (77.71%)
複勝	59.25% (84.98%)	58.85% (84.59%)	59.30% (85.01%)	64.17% (90.00%)	71.23% (88.26%)	64.89% (86.67%)	56.28% (84.12%)	89.55% (82.48%)
枠連	16.22% (83.36%)	16.39% (90.37%)	15.69% (76.08%)	22.22% (99.49%)	-- (--)	18.05% (77.43%)	14.59% (80.05%)	31.80% (79.06%)
馬連	12.74% (84.02%)	13.14% (86.04%)	12.03% (82.17%)	16.67% (80.92%)	25.57% (70.23%)	15.33% (79.52%)	10.71% (86.77%)	25.85% (73.39%)
ワイド	27.29% (87.90%)	28.66% (90.59%)	25.76% (86.09%)	29.17% (74.75%)	53.88% (89.91%)	32.01% (81.90%)	23.32% (89.71%)	49.32% (79.48%)
馬単	6.69% (74.35%)	6.81% (76.64%)	6.44% (71.42%)	8.33% (82.33%)	13.70% (72.56%)	7.66% (79.44%)	5.73% (72.82%)	25.85% (70.72%)
三連複	6.16% (72.58%)	7.46% (65.86%)	4.80% (80.95%)	6.67% (52.33%)	18.72% (62.05%)	8.41% (62.79%)	4.29% (76.79%)	16.56% (72.27%)
三連単	1.30% (56.54%)	1.66% (44.55%)	1.03% (72.96%)	0.00% (0.00%)	4.11% (45.62%)	1.98% (48.38%)	0.82% (60.24%)	16.56% (67.09%)
総合	60.49% (78.43%)	60.27% (77.78%)	60.33% (79.50%)	65.83% (72.56%)	74.89% (73.43%)	65.51% (75.32%)	57.52% (79.24%)	89.84% (71.35%)

26回目のNDCG@1=0.7794 NDCG@3=0.7837

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	28.13% (81.92%)	27.24% (80.66%)	28.49% (81.67%)	35.83% (103.08%)	37.90% (83.29%)	30.53% (87.37%)	26.45% (79.98%)	58.70% (78.66%)
複勝	59.10% (84.52%)	58.50% (83.29%)	59.11% (85.27%)	67.50% (91.75%)	70.78% (86.16%)	64.77% (86.06%)	56.16% (83.86%)	89.41% (82.48%)
枠連	16.22% (85.88%)	16.04% (90.72%)	16.14% (81.18%)	20.20% (91.62%)	-- (--)	17.43% (81.43%)	14.79% (81.91%)	31.77% (79.50%)
馬連	12.68% (81.37%)	12.91% (80.33%)	12.21% (83.33%)	15.83% (69.25%)	25.11% (66.35%)	14.83% (83.54%)	10.84% (82.01%)	25.82% (73.76%)
ワイド	27.12% (86.03%)	28.36% (83.06%)	25.64% (89.76%)	30.00% (76.50%)	50.68% (82.01%)	32.39% (83.36%)	23.24% (87.28%)	49.49% (78.55%)
馬単	6.71% (75.44%)	6.69% (75.49%)	6.50% (74.00%)	10.00% (94.42%)	12.33% (53.56%)	8.16% (89.83%)	5.73% (72.62%)	25.82% (71.19%)
三連複	5.99% (65.93%)	6.99% (58.69%)	4.92% (73.88%)	6.67% (58.67%)	16.89% (63.88%)	8.53% (72.21%)	4.16% (64.02%)	17.13% (78.95%)
三連単	1.13% (51.55%)	1.36% (60.14%)	0.91% (31.85%)	0.83% (200.75%)	2.28% (21.00%)	1.85% (108.18%)	0.78% (35.42%)	17.13% (71.77%)
総合	60.26% (76.45%)	59.62% (76.25%)	60.39% (75.08%)	67.50% (98.40%)	74.43% (65.18%)	65.27% (86.50%)	57.31% (73.39%)	89.81% (74.32%)

あともう一息なのはどれも変わらない。

追記 2026.7.29 21:26
チョイ上げの後はチョイ下げ。出勤前に40回スタート。

NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.78乗に0～1000点

こちらは微妙で29回目にNDCG@1=0.7803 NDCG@3=0.7834

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	28.22% (82.02%)	27.77% (85.56%)	28.13% (76.07%)	35.83% (113.83%)	40.18% (93.93%)	29.67% (87.06%)	26.66% (79.27%)	58.47% (79.10%)
複勝	59.04% (84.27%)	58.56% (84.21%)	59.11% (84.09%)	65.00% (87.67%)	70.78% (87.17%)	64.15% (86.22%)	56.28% (83.37%)	89.58% (81.93%)
枠連	16.39% (83.82%)	16.54% (91.75%)	16.01% (76.63%)	20.20% (85.15%)	-- (--)	17.31% (72.37%)	15.04% (82.32%)	31.38% (79.17%)
馬連	12.94% (82.53%)	13.20% (79.72%)	12.45% (86.63%)	15.83% (65.67%)	25.11% (64.98%)	14.96% (76.21%)	11.17% (86.22%)	25.79% (74.28%)
ワイド	27.47% (84.71%)	28.48% (82.56%)	26.37% (87.47%)	28.33% (77.25%)	50.23% (81.51%)	31.27% (79.32%)	24.15% (86.80%)	49.09% (76.46%)
馬単	6.89% (73.81%)	6.45% (69.93%)	7.11% (78.18%)	10.00% (68.42%)	11.87% (50.55%)	7.79% (73.92%)	6.14% (75.87%)	25.79% (72.00%)
三連複	6.19% (66.40%)	7.28% (58.05%)	4.92% (72.61%)	8.33% (98.75%)	19.63% (83.20%)	8.65% (72.78%)	4.16% (62.75%)	16.73% (75.73%)
三連単	1.45% (43.64%)	1.60% (47.60%)	1.40% (42.75%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.65% (38.22%)	2.47% (56.80%)	0.91% (39.74%)	16.73% (67.97%)
総合	60.26% (75.03%)	59.86% (74.57%)	60.33% (75.55%)	65.00% (74.36%)	73.97% (71.36%)	64.65% (75.58%)	57.56% (74.54%)	89.87% (72.15%)

37回目にNDCG@1=0.7798 NDCG@3=0.7835

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.96% (80.64%)	27.12% (80.92%)	28.49% (79.31%)	32.50% (95.00%)	37.44% (87.49%)	29.79% (86.07%)	26.49% (78.22%)	58.78% (79.55%)
複勝	58.99% (83.74%)	58.26% (82.76%)	59.42% (84.75%)	63.33% (83.58%)	69.41% (84.57%)	65.14% (86.30%)	56.00% (82.81%)	89.87% (83.21%)
枠連	16.74% (88.22%)	16.96% (93.02%)	16.45% (84.49%)	18.18% (79.39%)	-- (--)	18.17% (78.75%)	15.20% (85.78%)	31.51% (79.04%)
馬連	13.05% (84.78%)	13.38% (82.56%)	12.70% (88.94%)	13.33% (59.00%)	25.11% (65.48%)	15.33% (81.72%)	11.21% (87.54%)	26.22% (77.13%)
ワイド	27.44% (83.27%)	28.12% (79.76%)	26.73% (88.01%)	27.50% (67.75%)	50.23% (80.41%)	32.76% (82.82%)	23.61% (83.68%)	49.58% (81.11%)
馬単	7.06% (78.07%)	6.75% (74.90%)	7.23% (80.20%)	9.17% (93.42%)	13.24% (60.50%)	7.79% (71.12%)	6.26% (81.97%)	26.22% (74.52%)
三連複	6.54% (83.16%)	7.22% (72.06%)	5.71% (93.61%)	8.33% (96.00%)	18.26% (65.43%)	8.53% (76.67%)	4.82% (86.92%)	17.05% (76.64%)
三連単	1.30% (83.45%)	1.48% (116.44%)	1.15% (41.04%)	0.83% (200.75%)	3.65% (36.99%)	1.98% (91.27%)	0.87% (85.04%)	17.05% (71.50%)
総合	60.41% (83.10%)	59.80% (85.14%)	60.69% (80.02%)	65.00% (97.25%)	73.06% (68.70%)	66.01% (81.84%)	57.40% (83.99%)	90.13% (74.85%)

38回目はNDCG@1=0.7785 NDCG@3=0.7838

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	28.08% (83.19%)	27.53% (82.80%)	28.19% (81.62%)	34.17% (110.08%)	36.07% (79.68%)	30.16% (88.13%)	26.66% (81.85%)	58.38% (78.53%)
複勝	59.04% (85.05%)	58.44% (84.07%)	59.36% (85.96%)	63.33% (86.50%)	69.86% (87.21%)	63.78% (84.82%)	56.49% (84.94%)	89.38% (82.68%)
枠連	16.90% (89.73%)	16.75% (95.18%)	16.71% (84.05%)	22.22% (102.42%)	-- (--)	18.42% (82.36%)	15.33% (86.49%)	32.25% (82.46%)
馬連	13.17% (88.36%)	13.56% (92.26%)	12.52% (85.18%)	16.67% (77.08%)	24.20% (74.20%)	15.45% (84.81%)	11.41% (90.82%)	26.37% (78.32%)
ワイド	27.18% (84.79%)	28.12% (82.97%)	26.00% (87.24%)	30.00% (76.83%)	50.23% (83.93%)	32.26% (82.82%)	23.40% (85.53%)	49.44% (79.90%)
馬単	7.06% (78.87%)	6.81% (76.47%)	7.11% (80.05%)	10.00% (96.33%)	12.33% (63.15%)	7.79% (76.61%)	6.35% (81.04%)	26.37% (75.48%)
三連複	6.37% (75.54%)	6.99% (59.19%)	5.59% (91.39%)	8.33% (88.25%)	16.44% (54.93%)	8.90% (70.44%)	4.61% (79.09%)	16.53% (74.55%)
三連単	1.39% (49.42%)	1.54% (44.23%)	1.28% (43.71%)	0.83% (200.75%)	3.65% (48.90%)	1.98% (68.11%)	0.99% (43.23%)	16.53% (70.89%)
総合	60.32% (79.23%)	59.68% (76.77%)	60.75% (79.88%)	63.33% (104.83%)	73.52% (70.29%)	64.52% (79.76%)	57.73% (79.12%)	89.70% (74.57%)

次はどれを試すべきか...

モデルサイズ

イテレーション数を2,500にするとモデルサイズが19MBとなりギリなサイズ。

NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 2500
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点

40回試して40回目にNDCG@10.7800 NDCG@3=0.7840

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	28.39% (81.37%)	27.83% (82.88%)	28.68% (78.88%)	32.50% (94.25%)	36.07% (78.54%)	30.16% (85.50%)	27.11% (80.24%)	58.29% (78.05%)
複勝	59.39% (84.34%)	59.03% (84.01%)	59.11% (84.20%)	68.33% (90.75%)	71.23% (86.35%)	64.89% (85.67%)	56.49% (83.71%)	89.64% (83.14%)
枠連	16.77% (89.09%)	16.82% (98.36%)	16.52% (80.44%)	20.20% (94.65%)	-- (--)	17.80% (83.39%)	15.37% (85.34%)	31.44% (78.54%)
馬連	13.11% (88.48%)	13.44% (90.01%)	12.76% (88.63%)	13.33% (64.83%)	26.03% (72.51%)	14.71% (85.13%)	11.41% (91.04%)	25.99% (80.74%)
ワイド	27.70% (87.61%)	29.07% (87.87%)	26.25% (88.58%)	28.33% (70.67%)	49.77% (80.18%)	32.26% (84.78%)	24.19% (89.23%)	49.35% (81.30%)
馬単	7.41% (89.03%)	7.28% (89.39%)	7.59% (89.89%)	6.67% (72.17%)	12.33% (56.71%)	8.28% (96.58%)	6.67% (89.43%)	25.99% (78.73%)
三連複	6.37% (73.77%)	7.46% (59.40%)	5.22% (89.62%)	6.67% (58.67%)	18.26% (62.65%)	9.02% (69.49%)	4.41% (76.20%)	16.30% (69.14%)
三連単	1.39% (74.72%)	1.66% (46.94%)	1.15% (94.03%)	0.83% (200.75%)	4.57% (48.95%)	2.22% (79.41%)	0.82% (75.48%)	16.30% (64.41%)
総合	60.72% (83.48%)	60.51% (79.47%)	60.39% (86.82%)	68.33% (93.31%)	74.89% (69.41%)	65.51% (83.74%)	57.85% (83.83%)	89.90% (71.36%)

このもう少し良い奴がイテレーション数2,000で出るパターンを探さなきゃです。

ゲリラ雷雨でPC飛んだ

やられたけど、まあ、これも仕方ない事なのでね。

NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.75乗に0～1000点

継続するしかないのでまた20回。7回目にNDCG@1=0.7800 NDCG@3=0.7837

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.67% (79.35%)	26.47% (77.19%)	28.43% (80.13%)	34.17% (98.83%)	36.07% (78.08%)	29.05% (77.26%)	26.45% (80.16%)	58.81% (78.98%)
複勝	58.73% (83.21%)	57.79% (81.73%)	59.48% (84.78%)	61.67% (82.50%)	68.95% (83.70%)	64.52% (84.45%)	55.87% (82.75%)	89.44% (82.82%)
枠連	15.80% (78.04%)	15.54% (82.02%)	15.57% (73.01%)	23.23% (101.41%)	-- (--)	17.55% (76.07%)	14.22% (73.75%)	31.60% (77.45%)
馬連	12.53% (77.28%)	12.73% (76.29%)	11.97% (77.55%)	17.50% (87.33%)	23.29% (59.18%)	15.08% (82.08%)	10.71% (77.31%)	26.08% (74.51%)
ワイド	27.41% (84.11%)	28.30% (83.21%)	26.12% (84.83%)	32.50% (86.83%)	47.95% (78.45%)	33.50% (88.69%)	23.53% (83.09%)	49.61% (80.64%)
馬単	6.63% (68.18%)	5.92% (59.62%)	6.99% (73.87%)	11.67% (110.58%)	10.96% (45.71%)	7.79% (71.61%)	5.85% (69.06%)	26.08% (71.67%)
三連複	6.31% (72.37%)	7.22% (64.72%)	5.22% (79.37%)	8.33% (84.17%)	16.89% (59.50%)	8.41% (67.06%)	4.66% (75.31%)	16.85% (71.91%)
三連単	1.13% (39.04%)	1.30% (51.60%)	1.03% (29.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.20% (29.32%)	1.48% (49.60%)	0.82% (36.40%)	16.85% (67.15%)
総合	59.80% (72.62%)	58.91% (71.84%)	60.57% (72.82%)	61.67% (81.01%)	72.15% (61.99%)	64.89% (74.60%)	56.98% (72.23%)	89.78% (71.62%)

どれもこのレベル止まり。13回目のNDCG@1=0.7797 NDCG@3=0.7838

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.90% (80.96%)	27.89% (83.82%)	27.58% (77.04%)	32.50% (94.67%)	38.81% (91.00%)	29.30% (85.01%)	26.45% (78.71%)	58.29% (78.79%)
複勝	58.76% (84.32%)	58.56% (83.78%)	58.75% (85.13%)	61.67% (80.83%)	71.23% (88.08%)	64.03% (85.40%)	55.87% (83.62%)	89.26% (82.57%)
枠連	16.26% (84.68%)	16.04% (89.26%)	16.01% (79.22%)	23.23% (106.16%)	-- (--)	17.92% (82.60%)	14.67% (80.00%)	31.57% (79.41%)
馬連	12.94% (84.81%)	13.20% (82.77%)	12.27% (86.80%)	18.33% (86.25%)	25.11% (66.99%)	15.20% (85.38%)	11.08% (86.23%)	26.02% (76.88%)
ワイド	27.32% (87.48%)	28.12% (83.75%)	26.18% (91.77%)	31.67% (80.92%)	49.32% (79.09%)	32.39% (86.96%)	23.65% (88.41%)	49.87% (80.37%)
馬単	6.63% (72.79%)	6.45% (69.86%)	6.44% (72.85%)	11.67% (113.25%)	12.33% (55.34%)	7.42% (82.63%)	5.85% (71.08%)	26.02% (73.88%)
三連複	6.05% (71.27%)	7.05% (60.34%)	5.10% (85.43%)	5.00% (30.83%)	17.81% (63.56%)	8.16% (71.05%)	4.29% (72.04%)	16.76% (77.42%)
三連単	1.27% (38.48%)	1.66% (50.76%)	0.97% (28.68%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.65% (33.01%)	1.73% (42.53%)	0.91% (37.62%)	16.76% (70.97%)
総合	60.06% (75.47%)	59.92% (75.25%)	60.02% (75.85%)	62.50% (73.40%)	74.89% (68.15%)	64.65% (77.69%)	57.19% (74.71%)	89.61% (74.45%)

まあ、指数的にも大差ないので結果的にも大差ないのは当然かな。

特徴量の抽出率

まあ、これって以前は固定のままで随分と学習させてたんだけど、

NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点

20回と思って2回目でいきなりNDCG@1=0.7811 NDCG@3=0.7840

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.87% (80.31%)	27.41% (82.18%)	28.13% (77.67%)	30.83% (90.08%)	39.27% (89.50%)	29.05% (82.87%)	26.45% (78.62%)	58.21% (78.21%)
複勝	59.22% (85.04%)	58.97% (84.44%)	59.23% (85.68%)	62.50% (84.83%)	71.69% (89.13%)	64.65% (85.53%)	56.28% (84.52%)	89.75% (82.99%)
枠連	16.06% (83.12%)	16.18% (87.59%)	15.63% (78.96%)	21.21% (85.76%)	-- (--)	18.17% (78.20%)	14.34% (79.49%)	31.60% (77.23%)
馬連	12.68% (81.79%)	13.03% (79.93%)	12.15% (84.91%)	15.00% (65.17%)	25.57% (69.36%)	15.33% (82.87%)	10.63% (82.55%)	25.88% (75.09%)
ワイド	26.98% (83.73%)	28.00% (82.42%)	25.70% (85.87%)	30.00% (72.92%)	49.77% (83.33%)	33.37% (88.95%)	22.79% (82.03%)	49.32% (80.62%)
馬単	6.71% (68.11%)	6.28% (64.29%)	6.99% (72.32%)	9.17% (64.25%)	14.61% (69.04%)	7.79% (76.71%)	5.64% (65.16%)	25.88% (72.21%)
三連複	6.34% (77.46%)	7.34% (69.48%)	5.35% (87.29%)	5.83% (54.75%)	17.81% (60.09%)	8.78% (67.97%)	4.49% (82.18%)	16.99% (79.34%)
三連単	1.48% (55.01%)	2.01% (75.01%)	1.03% (38.49%)	0.00% (0.00%)	4.57% (50.09%)	2.35% (63.61%)	0.91% (52.58%)	16.99% (74.16%)
総合	60.43% (76.74%)	60.33% (77.97%)	60.39% (76.39%)	62.50% (64.25%)	74.89% (72.94%)	65.27% (78.34%)	57.52% (75.89%)	90.07% (75.76%)

なんか拍子抜けする程期待外れ(笑) まあ、まだ沢山残ってるので今後に期待。

あと少しが

昨晩は

NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点

10回目にNDCG@1=0.7794 NDCG@3=0.7830

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	28.13% (81.70%)	27.83% (83.13%)	28.25% (79.59%)	30.83% (90.67%)	37.44% (84.84%)	29.54% (80.00%)	26.82% (81.99%)	58.38% (78.36%)
複勝	59.10% (84.43%)	59.44% (84.91%)	58.44% (83.81%)	63.33% (86.08%)	72.60% (90.46%)	63.66% (83.03%)	56.37% (84.35%)	89.84% (82.98%)
枠連	16.45% (88.01%)	16.82% (97.18%)	15.88% (80.20%)	20.20% (81.82%)	-- (--)	17.92% (80.83%)	14.92% (84.82%)	31.15% (78.22%)
馬連	13.14% (87.42%)	13.74% (90.29%)	12.39% (86.37%)	15.00% (61.50%)	25.11% (69.13%)	15.20% (82.99%)	11.37% (90.55%)	25.96% (74.59%)
ワイド	27.21% (84.98%)	28.12% (84.16%)	26.31% (87.44%)	26.67% (62.83%)	50.68% (85.62%)	31.40% (80.82%)	23.69% (86.32%)	49.78% (79.06%)
馬単	7.09% (80.80%)	6.87% (81.53%)	7.11% (80.79%)	10.00% (70.75%)	11.87% (57.40%)	8.28% (83.96%)	6.26% (81.87%)	25.96% (72.33%)
三連複	6.19% (59.29%)	6.93% (53.03%)	5.29% (64.05%)	8.33% (82.00%)	19.18% (70.46%)	8.28% (59.72%)	4.33% (58.13%)	16.50% (80.59%)
三連単	1.39% (48.96%)	1.66% (51.04%)	1.22% (50.40%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.65% (38.26%)	1.98% (42.48%)	0.99% (52.08%)	16.50% (74.32%)
総合	60.38% (76.80%)	60.81% (77.76%)	59.66% (76.56%)	64.17% (66.62%)	76.71% (70.88%)	64.52% (74.23%)	57.52% (77.51%)	90.19% (75.89%)

38回目にNDCG@1=0.7790 NDCG@3=0.7835

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	28.08% (83.19%)	27.53% (82.80%)	28.19% (81.62%)	34.17% (110.08%)	36.07% (79.68%)	30.16% (88.13%)	26.66% (81.85%)	58.38% (78.53%)
複勝	59.04% (85.05%)	58.44% (84.07%)	59.36% (85.96%)	63.33% (86.50%)	69.86% (87.21%)	63.78% (84.82%)	56.49% (84.94%)	89.38% (82.68%)
枠連	16.90% (89.73%)	16.75% (95.18%)	16.71% (84.05%)	22.22% (102.42%)	-- (--)	18.42% (82.36%)	15.33% (86.49%)	32.25% (82.46%)
馬連	13.17% (88.36%)	13.56% (92.26%)	12.52% (85.18%)	16.67% (77.08%)	24.20% (74.20%)	15.45% (84.81%)	11.41% (90.82%)	26.37% (78.32%)
ワイド	27.18% (84.79%)	28.12% (82.97%)	26.00% (87.24%)	30.00% (76.83%)	50.23% (83.93%)	32.26% (82.82%)	23.40% (85.53%)	49.44% (79.90%)
馬単	7.06% (78.87%)	6.81% (76.47%)	7.11% (80.05%)	10.00% (96.33%)	12.33% (63.15%)	7.79% (76.61%)	6.35% (81.04%)	26.37% (75.48%)
三連複	6.37% (75.54%)	6.99% (59.19%)	5.59% (91.39%)	8.33% (88.25%)	16.44% (54.93%)	8.90% (70.44%)	4.61% (79.09%)	16.53% (74.55%)
三連単	1.39% (49.42%)	1.54% (44.23%)	1.28% (43.71%)	0.83% (200.75%)	3.65% (48.90%)	1.98% (68.11%)	0.99% (43.23%)	16.53% (70.89%)
総合	60.32% (79.23%)	59.68% (76.77%)	60.75% (79.88%)	63.33% (104.83%)	73.52% (70.29%)	64.52% (79.76%)	57.73% (79.12%)	89.70% (74.57%)

イテレーション数2,000ではなのか、モデルサイズ自体はまだ15MB程度なのでもう少し葉を増やすべきかなぁ。これ、40回やるのに6時間程掛かる。

追記 2026.7.26 9:07
モデルファイル整理してて見つけた21回目のNDCG@1=0.7782 NDCG@3=0.7836

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	28.42% (82.05%)	28.00% (83.27%)	28.55% (79.11%)	32.50% (105.08%)	38.36% (85.16%)	30.41% (88.15%)	26.86% (79.73%)	58.44% (78.26%)
複勝	59.45% (84.61%)	59.38% (84.53%)	58.93% (84.26%)	67.50% (90.58%)	72.60% (89.36%)	65.02% (86.35%)	56.41% (83.60%)	89.61% (82.78%)
枠連	16.65% (86.98%)	17.03% (96.02%)	15.88% (77.63%)	23.23% (107.07%)	-- (--)	17.92% (84.18%)	15.16% (82.40%)	31.83% (79.08%)
馬連	13.17% (84.70%)	13.32% (84.88%)	12.70% (84.82%)	17.50% (80.42%)	26.03% (71.69%)	15.33% (87.75%)	11.29% (84.85%)	26.54% (76.99%)
ワイド	27.09% (85.80%)	28.48% (89.42%)	25.39% (82.62%)	30.83% (78.42%)	51.14% (83.84%)	32.01% (82.08%)	23.28% (87.22%)	49.55% (80.09%)
馬単	7.29% (82.21%)	6.81% (75.26%)	7.59% (88.18%)	10.00% (98.17%)	14.61% (68.54%)	8.53% (97.92%)	6.22% (78.21%)	26.54% (74.20%)
三連複	6.51% (77.43%)	6.99% (57.99%)	5.95% (98.04%)	7.50% (68.50%)	19.18% (72.97%)	8.03% (58.50%)	4.86% (84.15%)	16.82% (72.83%)
三連単	1.39% (48.46%)	1.48% (52.96%)	1.40% (47.38%)	0.00% (0.00%)	4.11% (52.10%)	1.48% (34.92%)	1.11% (52.65%)	16.82% (68.66%)
総合	60.69% (78.92%)	60.92% (77.66%)	59.84% (80.27%)	69.17% (77.89%)	76.71% (74.81%)	65.88% (77.48%)	57.52% (79.10%)	89.93% (72.91%)

これも単複の的中率は良いけどって感じだな^^;

モデルのサイズ

昨夜試した学習はイテレーション数2,000にしました。ここまで採用したのは3,000でしたが、モデルサイズが16MBでした。葉の数増やして細かくフィットされてみる為にイテレーション数を減らし葉を増やす。どの程度影響してるか把握はしてないけど分割数も減らす。で、昨夜は率は0.015でした。これだと13MB。

で、今試しているのは

NumberOfLeaves: 335
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 31
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点

なんですが、葉をさらに増やして率は0.01に。これだとほぼ15MBに近くなります。15回目でNDCG@1=0.7792 NDCG@3=0.7831

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	28.19% (81.12%)	28.18% (83.61%)	28.13% (78.41%)	29.17% (83.08%)	38.36% (85.71%)	29.30% (83.20%)	26.91% (80.01%)	57.97% (76.82%)
複勝	59.25% (84.19%)	59.15% (84.25%)	59.05% (84.28%)	63.33% (82.25%)	72.15% (88.68%)	63.91% (83.99%)	56.53% (83.86%)	89.58% (82.45%)
枠連	17.20% (91.22%)	17.10% (98.08%)	16.77% (83.53%)	25.25% (115.96%)	-- (--)	19.16% (83.76%)	15.45% (87.92%)	31.25% (76.44%)
馬連	13.43% (86.48%)	13.62% (88.19%)	12.88% (84.61%)	18.33% (87.92%)	25.57% (69.36%)	15.57% (83.91%)	11.62% (88.88%)	25.59% (71.78%)
ワイド	27.70% (87.24%)	28.60% (84.49%)	26.49% (90.47%)	31.67% (81.42%)	51.14% (82.74%)	32.88% (86.21%)	23.86% (87.99%)	49.23% (78.49%)
馬単	7.29% (79.09%)	7.10% (77.99%)	7.23% (78.21%)	10.83% (106.67%)	14.16% (66.62%)	8.53% (79.68%)	6.26% (80.02%)	25.59% (68.85%)
三連複	6.11% (69.57%)	6.87% (54.32%)	5.22% (85.29%)	7.50% (68.50%)	18.26% (65.89%)	8.28% (64.73%)	4.29% (71.51%)	17.05% (73.01%)
三連単	1.45% (54.97%)	1.84% (75.58%)	1.15% (37.83%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.65% (36.03%)	2.22% (54.89%)	0.99% (56.70%)	17.05% (68.31%)
総合	60.38% (79.07%)	60.45% (80.45%)	60.09% (77.80%)	63.33% (77.38%)	75.34% (70.72%)	64.77% (77.55%)	57.56% (79.61%)	89.87% (71.43%)

まあまだのこり20回以上あるので良いものが出る事を期待したいです。ワイドが頑張ってる感じがします。なんか工夫次第で行ける範囲なきもする。

期待値で絞って攻めるのもありかも。これ、クラス別を作りこむの忘れてたのでこの後追加してみます。

追記 2026.7.25 20:34
21回目のNDCG@1=0.7799 NDCG@3=0.7828

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	28.45% (83.55%)	27.77% (81.64%)	28.86% (83.94%)	32.50% (105.08%)	41.10% (94.79%)	29.54% (82.98%)	26.95% (82.73%)	58.38% (78.69%)
複勝	59.16% (84.58%)	58.85% (83.69%)	59.05% (85.02%)	65.00% (91.00%)	72.15% (89.63%)	64.03% (84.10%)	56.37% (84.28%)	89.70% (83.06%)
枠連	15.96% (85.98%)	16.04% (93.53%)	15.37% (78.35%)	24.24% (99.90%)	-- (--)	18.17% (83.05%)	14.22% (81.50%)	31.44% (78.80%)
馬連	12.79% (83.87%)	13.08% (86.83%)	12.09% (80.90%)	18.33% (83.08%)	23.74% (61.64%)	15.45% (86.60%)	10.92% (84.97%)	25.93% (80.49%)
ワイド	27.61% (88.42%)	28.72% (85.54%)	26.00% (91.66%)	34.17% (84.42%)	49.77% (80.32%)	32.51% (83.77%)	23.98% (90.70%)	49.73% (81.11%)
馬単	6.98% (76.81%)	6.81% (79.00%)	6.93% (75.03%)	10.00% (70.50%)	13.24% (60.14%)	7.91% (81.42%)	6.10% (76.78%)	25.93% (78.38%)
三連複	6.08% (68.47%)	6.63% (51.05%)	5.47% (86.93%)	6.67% (60.50%)	16.89% (54.89%)	8.53% (65.34%)	4.29% (70.75%)	16.96% (79.24%)
三連単	1.27% (33.22%)	1.48% (38.68%)	1.15% (30.04%)	0.00% (0.00%)	4.11% (45.48%)	1.85% (42.48%)	0.82% (29.03%)	16.96% (73.30%)
総合	60.26% (75.47%)	60.09% (74.60%)	60.09% (76.47%)	65.00% (73.74%)	75.34% (69.56%)	64.77% (76.22%)	57.40% (75.09%)	90.04% (76.57%)

これはどうなんだろうって感じのモデルが最適なのか、24回目のNDCG@1=0.7779 NDCG@3=0.7832

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	28.02% (81.60%)	27.77% (83.04%)	28.01% (79.29%)	31.67% (93.08%)	35.62% (79.50%)	29.30% (83.61%)	26.91% (81.12%)	58.52% (78.78%)
複勝	59.28% (84.75%)	58.67% (83.57%)	59.54% (85.88%)	64.17% (85.92%)	70.32% (86.80%)	65.51% (87.24%)	56.20% (83.74%)	89.29% (82.66%)
枠連	16.35% (87.24%)	17.25% (98.55%)	15.25% (77.03%)	21.21% (88.48%)	-- (--)	18.42% (83.83%)	14.63% (82.84%)	31.31% (78.14%)
馬連	12.88% (83.62%)	13.91% (90.11%)	11.66% (78.54%)	15.00% (61.92%)	25.11% (68.54%)	15.33% (83.50%)	10.96% (85.02%)	26.05% (74.98%)
ワイド	27.24% (84.06%)	29.31% (85.88%)	24.97% (83.49%)	29.17% (66.42%)	51.14% (83.93%)	33.00% (84.03%)	23.16% (84.09%)	49.52% (79.86%)
馬単	6.98% (76.44%)	7.10% (81.28%)	6.68% (72.64%)	9.17% (60.50%)	13.24% (60.73%)	8.03% (76.70%)	6.06% (77.78%)	26.05% (71.85%)
三連複	6.22% (67.93%)	6.87% (53.17%)	5.41% (81.77%)	8.33% (85.83%)	18.26% (69.18%)	8.90% (70.44%)	4.24% (66.98%)	16.53% (74.02%)
三連単	1.30% (41.31%)	1.60% (57.77%)	1.09% (27.44%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.65% (34.20%)	1.85% (44.39%)	0.91% (40.93%)	16.53% (67.39%)
総合	60.67% (75.71%)	60.33% (78.76%)	60.75% (73.24%)	64.17% (67.31%)	75.34% (68.98%)	66.50% (76.72%)	57.40% (75.31%)	89.58% (71.93%)

これはダメだorz これはちと葉の数がマイナスになってるかも^^;