ここ最近のパラメーターで相対タイム学習に挑んでますが、
NumberOfLeaves: 31
NumberOfIterations: 1,500
LearningRate: 0.050
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 20
SubsampleFraction: 0.500
FeatureFraction: 0.980
L2Regularization: 0.500
これで10回学習させて\(R^{2}\) 0.2288だと
| 2,610R | 1点 | 芝(1,278R) | ダート(1,243R) | 障害(89R) | 8頭以下(157R) | 9～12頭(665R) | 13頭以上(1,788R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 23.60% (76.21%) |
23.71% (79.50%) |
23.89% (74.22%) |
17.98% (56.74%) |
31.85% (67.39%) |
26.02% (69.91%) |
21.98% (79.32%) |
52.80% (76.59%) |
| 複勝 | 55.02% (81.02%) |
53.91% (80.20%) |
56.32% (82.34%) |
52.81% (74.16%) |
64.33% (86.69%) |
60.60% (82.24%) |
52.13% (80.06%) |
88.35% (80.94%) |
| 枠連 | 12.48% (68.05%) |
11.86% (64.13%) |
13.12% (72.68%) |
11.39% (52.91%) |
-- (--) |
13.83% (69.47%) |
11.24% (63.53%) |
28.58% (75.07%) |
| 馬連 | 9.27% (60.49%) |
9.15% (60.52%) |
9.49% (61.49%) |
7.87% (46.29%) |
20.38% (99.04%) |
11.28% (69.32%) |
7.55% (53.83%) |
22.22% (73.03%) |
| ワイド | 23.26% (72.21%) |
22.22% (66.60%) |
24.54% (78.30%) |
20.22% (67.53%) |
37.58% (70.06%) |
27.97% (80.86%) |
20.25% (69.18%) |
45.06% (76.93%) |
| 馬単 | 4.83% (53.25%) |
4.46% (55.09%) |
5.23% (52.27%) |
4.49% (40.45%) |
10.83% (88.22%) |
6.32% (57.53%) |
3.75% (48.59%) |
22.22% (70.93%) |
| 三連複 | 6.25% (76.38%) |
5.95% (82.28%) |
6.60% (72.81%) |
5.62% (41.69%) |
11.46% (64.90%) |
6.62% (62.47%) |
5.65% (82.57%) |
15.36% (69.27%) |
| 三連単 | 1.46% (93.93%) |
1.10% (109.68%) |
1.77% (78.67%) |
2.25% (80.90%) |
2.55% (102.04%) |
1.80% (50.11%) |
1.23% (109.52%) |
15.36% (64.91%) |
| 総合 | 56.21% (72.75%) |
54.77% (74.95%) |
57.76% (71.59%) |
55.06% (57.65%) |
66.24% (82.62%) |
61.50% (67.74%) |
53.36% (73.32%) |
88.54% (69.50%) |
これを更に精度上げるにはってGeminiにぶつけると、
NumberOfLeaves: 63
NumberOfIterations: 3,000
LearningRate: 0.010
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 20
SubsampleFraction: 0.500
FeatureFraction: 0.800
L2Regularization: 0.500
これを試すと\(R^{2}\) 0.2339
| 2,610R | 1点 | 芝(1,278R) | ダート(1,243R) | 障害(89R) | 8頭以下(157R) | 9～12頭(665R) | 13頭以上(1,788R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 23.56% (77.59%) |
23.47% (82.89%) |
24.05% (73.68%) |
17.98% (56.07%) |
31.85% (68.22%) |
25.56% (68.45%) |
22.09% (81.81%) |
53.75% (78.08%) |
| 複勝 | 55.13% (80.39%) |
53.99% (80.43%) |
56.07% (80.26%) |
58.43% (81.80%) |
63.69% (84.08%) |
60.00% (80.48%) |
52.57% (80.04%) |
88.28% (80.70%) |
| 枠連 | 13.03% (71.22%) |
11.76% (67.45%) |
14.23% (75.50%) |
12.66% (59.11%) |
-- (--) |
13.53% (68.15%) |
12.08% (68.18%) |
29.17% (75.76%) |
| 馬連 | 9.50% (65.75%) |
9.08% (64.98%) |
9.98% (67.47%) |
8.99% (52.81%) |
19.11% (99.75%) |
11.13% (66.66%) |
8.05% (62.43%) |
23.45% (72.81%) |
| ワイド | 23.64% (74.45%) |
22.07% (65.40%) |
25.34% (84.42%) |
22.47% (65.28%) |
36.94% (70.96%) |
27.07% (75.61%) |
21.20% (74.33%) |
45.79% (76.73%) |
| 馬単 | 5.25% (69.81%) |
5.09% (79.67%) |
5.47% (61.31%) |
4.49% (46.85%) |
10.83% (92.61%) |
6.62% (64.06%) |
4.25% (69.94%) |
23.45% (72.62%) |
| 三連複 | 6.32% (75.02%) |
6.03% (66.40%) |
6.76% (87.28%) |
4.49% (27.64%) |
12.74% (66.82%) |
6.62% (72.09%) |
5.65% (76.83%) |
15.94% (73.48%) |
| 三連単 | 1.42% (56.84%) |
1.41% (58.73%) |
1.45% (56.76%) |
1.12% (30.67%) |
2.55% (105.73%) |
2.26% (73.25%) |
1.01% (46.44%) |
15.94% (67.97%) |
| 総合 | 56.36% (71.39%) |
55.16% (70.81%) |
57.28% (73.32%) |
60.67% (52.44%) |
66.24% (84.02%) |
60.60% (71.09%) |
53.91% (70.00%) |
88.51% (71.66%) |
なんだけど、微妙な検証結果。