何の前触れもなくJRA-VANはメンテ明けでJV-Linkの64bit化をアナウンスしてます(笑) こりゃ良いのか悪いのかなんですが、実は盆休みに本腰入れて「さらだ64」に取り組もうかと思ってましたが、逆に良かった。無駄が省けそうなんで、この連休使って可能な限り64bit化をします。が、予定ではさらだ64はWinUI3で行く予定だったのでその辺りの調整は必要です。
でも、JV-Link Version 5.0.0はウェルカムです^^
2026/08/04
2026/08/03
ボーダーの癖?
ボーダーを0にする時と500にする時でNDCGがボーダー0の時は高く、ボーダー500の時には低くなるのは、何度も学習させてきて分かってます。今朝出勤前に
NumberOfLeaves: 399
NumberOfIterations: 1500
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 80
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点
で40回スタートしてました。微妙な感じですが7回目にNDCG@1=0.7803 NDCG@3=0.7832
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.87% (82.19%) |
27.47% (81.89%) |
28.07% (81.91%) |
30.83% (90.33%) |
35.62% (80.50%) |
29.17% (83.62%) |
26.74% (81.87%) |
58.09% (78.98%) |
| 複勝 | 58.47% (83.66%) |
58.02% (82.78%) |
58.63% (84.40%) |
62.50% (85.92%) |
68.49% (84.84%) |
63.66% (84.08%) |
55.83% (83.42%) |
89.78% (82.63%) |
| 枠連 | 15.90% (81.41%) |
16.18% (88.48%) |
15.12% (73.47%) |
24.24% (107.17%) |
-- (--) |
18.54% (81.40%) |
14.01% (76.25%) |
30.69% (77.15%) |
| 馬連 | 12.50% (76.87%) |
13.14% (79.53%) |
11.60% (74.47%) |
15.83% (72.25%) |
24.66% (65.98%) |
15.57% (83.00%) |
10.38% (75.80%) |
25.44% (73.67%) |
| ワイド | 26.74% (84.81%) |
28.24% (88.47%) |
25.09% (82.22%) |
28.33% (68.92%) |
50.23% (81.51%) |
32.63% (85.95%) |
22.66% (84.73%) |
48.97% (79.24%) |
| 馬単 | 6.57% (73.13%) |
6.57% (75.58%) |
6.38% (69.43%) |
9.17% (89.17%) |
13.24% (62.83%) |
7.66% (85.70%) |
5.60% (69.86%) |
25.44% (71.42%) |
| 三連複 | 6.22% (71.75%) |
7.10% (55.24%) |
5.29% (88.28%) |
6.67% (77.50%) |
19.18% (78.13%) |
8.41% (71.05%) |
4.33% (71.41%) |
16.61% (83.00%) |
| 三連単 | 1.33% (46.97%) |
1.72% (54.21%) |
0.97% (28.32%) |
0.83% (200.75%) |
4.11% (49.00%) |
2.22% (84.77%) |
0.78% (34.18%) |
16.61% (75.50%) |
| 総合 | 59.71% (75.01%) |
59.15% (75.50%) |
59.90% (72.81%) |
65.00% (98.82%) |
72.60% (71.83%) |
64.40% (82.45%) |
56.98% (72.19%) |
90.04% (76.47%) |
後は18回目にNDCG@1=0.7794 NDCG@3=0.7833
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.61% (79.21%) |
27.29% (81.05%) |
27.64% (76.51%) |
31.67% (90.42%) |
38.36% (87.31%) |
28.31% (78.00%) |
26.41% (78.89%) |
58.58% (78.52%) |
| 複勝 | 58.84% (83.77%) |
58.02% (83.11%) |
59.30% (84.30%) |
64.17% (85.83%) |
70.32% (87.21%) |
64.03% (84.30%) |
56.08% (83.28%) |
89.58% (82.07%) |
| 枠連 | 16.39% (84.10%) |
16.47% (88.41%) |
16.01% (79.51%) |
21.21% (95.76%) |
-- (--) |
18.05% (79.46%) |
14.79% (80.31%) |
31.44% (79.58%) |
| 馬連 | 12.85% (82.76%) |
13.20% (81.72%) |
12.21% (84.02%) |
16.67% (80.00%) |
23.74% (62.24%) |
15.45% (84.96%) |
11.00% (83.88%) |
25.64% (74.32%) |
| ワイド | 27.96% (90.02%) |
28.77% (92.31%) |
26.85% (88.20%) |
31.67% (82.83%) |
51.60% (83.61%) |
33.00% (89.33%) |
24.15% (90.83%) |
49.12% (77.96%) |
| 馬単 | 7.03% (77.15%) |
6.57% (66.61%) |
7.29% (86.06%) |
10.00% (103.17%) |
14.61% (66.71%) |
7.42% (76.39%) |
6.22% (78.34%) |
25.64% (71.84%) |
| 三連複 | 6.05% (67.82%) |
6.75% (56.05%) |
5.29% (80.05%) |
6.67% (65.75%) |
16.89% (60.18%) |
8.41% (62.69%) |
4.29% (70.22%) |
16.70% (75.42%) |
| 三連単 | 1.48% (51.70%) |
1.66% (46.97%) |
1.28% (44.19%) |
1.67% (221.25%) |
4.11% (47.72%) |
2.10% (80.14%) |
1.03% (42.58%) |
16.70% (68.49%) |
| 総合 | 60.12% (76.97%) |
59.33% (74.24%) |
60.63% (77.85%) |
64.17% (103.29%) |
74.89% (70.71%) |
64.52% (79.41%) |
57.31% (76.04%) |
89.90% (72.45%) |
こちらは随分と頑張ってる感じがしますが、でも、もう一押し欲しいんだよね。今回、まあ、ボーダー0は一区切りして、ボーダー500を攻める予定なんだけど、流石に葉を399までしたし、葉の最初も80にあげてるので、モデルサイズが13MB超えにはなってます。自分の感覚的にはやはりボーダー500の方が検証結果的には上かな?
モデルサイズ的にはまたもう少し肥大化しても耐えられそうなので、攻めようかと思うけど、まあ、正攻法的には多分葉を増やすんだと思うので、ここは葉を415にして20回試してみます。20回なら寝る前に条件替えて40回とかも行けるしね。
追記 2026.8.4 5:30
NumberOfLeaves: 447
NumberOfIterations: 1500
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 80
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点
昨夜はこれで40回スタートして寝たんですが、思いのほか良くなかった。唯一16回目のNDCG@1=0.7804 NDCG@3=0.7835に期待したが
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.90% (81.33%) |
27.29% (81.18%) |
28.13% (80.43%) |
33.33% (95.67%) |
36.99% (81.64%) |
29.05% (84.14%) |
26.70% (80.36%) |
58.47% (79.10%) |
| 複勝 | 58.78% (83.62%) |
58.50% (83.74%) |
58.57% (83.07%) |
65.83% (89.33%) |
71.23% (86.62%) |
63.91% (84.59%) |
55.95% (83.02%) |
89.70% (82.89%) |
| 枠連 | 16.65% (85.36%) |
16.18% (86.59%) |
16.52% (83.68%) |
25.25% (94.55%) |
-- (--) |
18.79% (83.87%) |
14.87% (80.44%) |
31.34% (79.20%) |
| 馬連 | 13.20% (83.10%) |
13.08% (79.25%) |
12.82% (87.02%) |
20.00% (83.50%) |
24.20% (65.57%) |
16.32% (88.07%) |
11.17% (83.02%) |
25.90% (82.17%) |
| ワイド | 27.21% (83.47%) |
28.18% (83.30%) |
25.88% (84.36%) |
31.67% (73.75%) |
50.23% (84.06%) |
32.26% (82.90%) |
23.44% (83.61%) |
49.35% (81.98%) |
| 馬単 | 6.95% (70.58%) |
6.39% (65.21%) |
7.11% (74.48%) |
12.50% (92.67%) |
12.79% (59.77%) |
8.16% (74.82%) |
6.02% (70.14%) |
25.90% (79.74%) |
| 三連複 | 6.28% (75.46%) |
6.99% (57.59%) |
5.47% (93.54%) |
7.50% (79.00%) |
18.72% (75.43%) |
8.41% (62.40%) |
4.45% (79.81%) |
16.85% (74.42%) |
| 三連単 | 1.48% (45.64%) |
1.66% (45.38%) |
1.34% (45.16%) |
0.83% (56.08%) |
4.57% (52.60%) |
2.35% (52.26%) |
0.91% (42.81%) |
16.85% (69.37%) |
| 総合 | 60.00% (75.94%) |
59.62% (72.49%) |
59.96% (78.94%) |
65.83% (82.81%) |
74.43% (72.24%) |
64.40% (76.63%) |
57.23% (75.40%) |
90.07% (74.59%) |
これでは全然ダメだし、その前15回目のNDCG@1=0.7784 NDCG@3=0.7831
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.90% (80.76%) |
26.88% (78.98%) |
28.61% (81.65%) |
32.50% (93.42%) |
38.36% (86.39%) |
29.17% (79.63%) |
26.53% (80.62%) |
58.32% (78.57%) |
| 複勝 | 58.84% (83.85%) |
58.02% (82.42%) |
59.23% (85.23%) |
65.00% (85.08%) |
72.60% (89.41%) |
63.78% (83.63%) |
55.95% (83.42%) |
89.73% (82.89%) |
| 枠連 | 16.35% (85.06%) |
16.11% (88.18%) |
16.20% (81.33%) |
22.22% (99.80%) |
-- (--) |
19.04% (87.52%) |
14.42% (78.84%) |
31.83% (79.55%) |
| 馬連 | 12.91% (84.09%) |
13.14% (82.02%) |
12.39% (86.81%) |
16.67% (75.92%) |
23.74% (61.32%) |
16.32% (91.73%) |
10.80% (83.60%) |
25.88% (74.58%) |
| ワイド | 27.03% (86.17%) |
28.30% (84.59%) |
25.64% (89.13%) |
28.33% (68.00%) |
49.32% (79.73%) |
32.26% (85.27%) |
23.28% (87.06%) |
49.23% (79.26%) |
| 馬単 | 6.69% (71.72%) |
6.51% (67.68%) |
6.74% (74.90%) |
8.33% (85.00%) |
12.79% (54.47%) |
8.41% (87.29%) |
5.56% (68.09%) |
25.88% (71.70%) |
| 三連複 | 6.02% (63.57%) |
6.81% (50.91%) |
5.16% (76.70%) |
6.67% (61.58%) |
18.26% (65.98%) |
8.28% (58.07%) |
4.16% (65.18%) |
16.56% (78.49%) |
| 三連単 | 1.30% (35.80%) |
1.54% (34.95%) |
1.15% (39.28%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.65% (39.91%) |
2.35% (54.75%) |
0.74% (29.11%) |
16.56% (71.45%) |
| 総合 | 60.00% (73.72%) |
59.21% (70.86%) |
60.45% (76.85%) |
65.00% (70.46%) |
76.26% (68.17%) |
64.40% (78.49%) |
57.07% (71.99%) |
90.04% (74.30%) |
やはりこれでは更にダメだ。むやみに葉を増やしてもダメな事は分かった。これらは既に15MB超えてるし^^;
追記 2026.8.4 18:32
今朝出勤前に
NumberOfLeaves: 399
NumberOfIterations: 1500
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 63
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 80
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点
これで40回スタートしてました。これは選択ミスかも? 32回目にNDCG@1=0.7797 NDCG@3=0.7834
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 28.51% (84.20%) |
27.83% (83.81%) |
28.68% (83.10%) |
35.83% (104.67%) |
37.44% (80.87%) |
31.03% (90.35%) |
26.86% (82.45%) |
58.47% (78.87%) |
| 複勝 | 59.42% (85.22%) |
58.73% (83.93%) |
59.60% (86.14%) |
66.67% (90.83%) |
70.32% (85.53%) |
65.14% (86.21%) |
56.53% (84.87%) |
89.93% (83.28%) |
| 枠連 | 16.52% (85.71%) |
16.11% (87.01%) |
16.45% (83.44%) |
23.23% (103.13%) |
-- (--) |
18.67% (82.62%) |
14.75% (81.30%) |
31.67% (80.38%) |
| 馬連 | 13.00% (81.82%) |
12.85% (77.72%) |
12.82% (85.69%) |
17.50% (86.42%) |
23.29% (59.50%) |
16.07% (88.31%) |
11.04% (81.67%) |
25.79% (74.53%) |
| ワイド | 27.50% (87.44%) |
27.95% (87.83%) |
26.91% (88.09%) |
29.17% (72.83%) |
49.77% (85.66%) |
33.50% (87.53%) |
23.49% (87.56%) |
49.32% (80.06%) |
| 馬単 | 6.98% (77.50%) |
6.57% (76.41%) |
7.11% (76.52%) |
10.83% (106.17%) |
12.33% (50.64%) |
8.53% (95.35%) |
5.97% (73.97%) |
25.79% (72.23%) |
| 三連複 | 6.08% (70.36%) |
6.87% (56.04%) |
5.22% (84.99%) |
6.67% (71.33%) |
16.89% (64.61%) |
8.41% (65.46%) |
4.33% (72.51%) |
16.99% (76.38%) |
| 三連単 | 1.30% (36.44%) |
1.60% (43.39%) |
1.09% (31.96%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.20% (26.21%) |
2.10% (50.31%) |
0.87% (32.74%) |
16.99% (71.45%) |
| 総合 | 60.67% (75.95%) |
60.09% (74.25%) |
60.75% (77.46%) |
67.50% (78.89%) |
74.43% (64.72%) |
65.76% (80.77%) |
57.73% (74.63%) |
90.25% (74.33%) |
唯一使えそうかなって所でしたが、ダメだな。
2026/08/02
目指すべきもの
サボってはないですよ(笑) 今週末も学習させながらコーディングもしてます。まあ、AIとじゃれてるってのもあるが^^; 先日書いたEarlyStoppingRoundの現状バージョンでは実装不可ってのをAIではなく人間が挑んだらどうかって事で今週末やってるんだけど、まあ、結局AIのサポートも受けないと出来ないので「じゃれてる」って事になる(笑) これ、実際にはそれ程重要な事でもない気もしてるが、もし実装できればそれはそれでね。でも、結局は諦める事に^^;
多分、実装するのに必要なスキルがGeminiにもCopilotにも、更には自分にも無いのが原因な気もするし、そもそもML.NET側のバグかもしれませんが、ここはそれ以上の追及はしない事にしました。
で、ランキング学習ですが、モデルのダイエットも兼ねてイテレーション数を減らしました。これね、EarlyStoppingRoundが実装出来れば、また違った感じに出来たかもですが、実装出来なかったものを期待しても仕方がないので人力で変更(笑)
NumberOfLeaves: 335
NumberOfIterations: 1500
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 60
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～0 = 0点, 1～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点
これならモデルは11.8MB程度。NDCG@1=0.7815 NDCG@3=0.7857
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.55% (81.67%) |
27.35% (79.93%) |
27.52% (81.68%) |
30.83% (105.92%) |
38.81% (96.48%) |
29.30% (82.06%) |
25.96% (80.20%) |
57.37% (77.80%) |
| 複勝 | 59.25% (84.84%) |
58.61% (83.02%) |
59.42% (86.32%) |
65.83% (90.17%) |
72.15% (90.23%) |
64.28% (84.92%) |
56.41% (84.33%) |
89.41% (82.12%) |
| 枠連 | 16.16% (84.76%) |
16.11% (92.95%) |
15.69% (76.75%) |
24.24% (95.35%) |
-- (--) |
17.92% (81.04%) |
14.54% (80.62%) |
31.64% (81.19%) |
| 馬連 | 12.45% (79.42%) |
12.79% (85.97%) |
11.73% (73.04%) |
17.50% (74.75%) |
23.29% (63.20%) |
14.96% (81.72%) |
10.63% (80.12%) |
25.79% (73.91%) |
| ワイド | 27.38% (87.86%) |
28.36% (92.94%) |
26.12% (83.69%) |
30.83% (73.50%) |
49.77% (82.65%) |
33.25% (84.89%) |
23.40% (89.32%) |
49.18% (76.86%) |
| 馬単 | 6.74% (75.54%) |
7.28% (88.57%) |
6.14% (63.86%) |
7.50% (52.33%) |
12.79% (60.09%) |
8.03% (88.05%) |
5.77% (72.76%) |
25.79% (71.82%) |
| 三連複 | 5.93% (58.39%) |
6.87% (59.60%) |
5.04% (59.33%) |
5.00% (28.50%) |
18.72% (75.16%) |
8.03% (67.86%) |
4.08% (53.72%) |
16.06% (70.26%) |
| 三連単 | 1.33% (60.44%) |
1.60% (85.24%) |
1.15% (39.39%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
4.11% (47.53%) |
1.73% (74.83%) |
0.95% (56.80%) |
16.06% (67.16%) |
| 総合 | 60.55% (76.50%) |
59.80% (83.33%) |
60.87% (70.47%) |
66.67% (64.39%) |
77.17% (73.62%) |
64.65% (80.67%) |
57.68% (74.73%) |
89.81% (71.32%) |
相変わらずのあと一歩なモデルなのは変わらないけど、ダイエットしてるのでもう少し攻められる。NDCG@1=0.7820 NDCG@3=0.7854
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.24% (81.13%) |
27.29% (82.55%) |
26.79% (77.65%) |
32.50% (108.92%) |
38.81% (91.96%) |
28.18% (83.20%) |
25.88% (79.46%) |
56.93% (77.32%) |
| 複勝 | 58.90% (84.20%) |
58.61% (83.71%) |
58.75% (84.50%) |
65.00% (87.08%) |
71.69% (87.53%) |
63.41% (84.78%) |
56.24% (83.71%) |
89.52% (82.18%) |
| 枠連 | 16.13% (83.83%) |
16.04% (86.99%) |
15.50% (79.60%) |
27.27% (106.16%) |
-- (--) |
17.80% (77.00%) |
14.54% (80.79%) |
30.86% (77.79%) |
| 馬連 | 12.56% (77.46%) |
12.79% (79.80%) |
11.66% (73.48%) |
21.67% (99.08%) |
25.11% (76.76%) |
15.20% (76.35%) |
10.55% (77.89%) |
24.75% (69.30%) |
| ワイド | 27.06% (85.95%) |
28.24% (88.86%) |
25.27% (82.50%) |
35.00% (92.50%) |
50.68% (83.33%) |
33.37% (84.97%) |
22.83% (86.52%) |
48.65% (76.99%) |
| 馬単 | 6.63% (67.83%) |
6.81% (73.76%) |
5.95% (59.51%) |
13.33% (98.42%) |
13.24% (81.28%) |
7.54% (59.34%) |
5.73% (69.44%) |
24.75% (66.90%) |
| 三連複 | 5.88% (65.02%) |
6.81% (67.37%) |
4.80% (62.58%) |
7.50% (65.50%) |
16.89% (64.25%) |
8.16% (74.55%) |
4.12% (61.92%) |
16.15% (65.54%) |
| 三連単 | 1.48% (68.58%) |
1.84% (95.44%) |
1.15% (44.36%) |
0.83% (22.67%) |
4.11% (136.53%) |
1.85% (54.04%) |
1.11% (67.29%) |
16.15% (59.60%) |
| 総合 | 60.26% (76.65%) |
59.92% (82.21%) |
60.21% (70.47%) |
65.83% (84.57%) |
75.34% (88.81%) |
63.78% (74.28%) |
57.73% (75.88%) |
89.78% (66.10%) |
NDCG的には随分と上がってるのは、やはりボーダーを0にしたからなんだとは思うけど、検証結果が付いてこない。
NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 1500
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 70
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～0 = 0点, 1～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点
葉の最小を増やして3回目にNDCG@1=0.7821 NDCG@3=0.7862
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.47% (81.67%) |
27.53% (83.87%) |
26.97% (77.59%) |
33.33% (106.50%) |
40.18% (100.14%) |
29.30% (85.14%) |
25.71% (78.84%) |
56.87% (76.86%) |
| 複勝 | 59.39% (85.35%) |
59.03% (84.45%) |
59.42% (86.25%) |
64.17% (85.50%) |
72.15% (89.82%) |
64.28% (85.44%) |
56.61% (84.91%) |
89.78% (82.14%) |
| 枠連 | 15.77% (81.52%) |
16.18% (90.06%) |
14.87% (72.92%) |
24.24% (96.67%) |
-- (--) |
18.05% (81.74%) |
14.01% (76.27%) |
30.89% (77.19%) |
| 馬連 | 12.27% (78.84%) |
12.73% (83.10%) |
11.36% (74.08%) |
18.33% (84.00%) |
22.83% (61.96%) |
14.96% (82.47%) |
10.42% (79.15%) |
25.01% (68.71%) |
| ワイド | 27.41% (84.63%) |
29.07% (87.19%) |
25.52% (82.90%) |
30.00% (72.33%) |
51.60% (86.26%) |
33.37% (87.10%) |
23.24% (83.66%) |
48.36% (76.42%) |
| 馬単 | 6.31% (68.37%) |
6.39% (76.10%) |
5.89% (60.24%) |
10.83% (71.08%) |
12.33% (56.58%) |
7.54% (81.73%) |
5.36% (64.98%) |
25.01% (66.39%) |
| 三連複 | 6.02% (64.56%) |
6.93% (58.54%) |
4.98% (69.06%) |
7.50% (87.50%) |
18.72% (76.35%) |
7.91% (65.86%) |
4.24% (63.06%) |
16.27% (69.04%) |
| 三連単 | 1.22% (43.79%) |
1.48% (63.64%) |
0.91% (21.74%) |
1.67% (67.08%) |
3.65% (38.49%) |
1.98% (97.54%) |
0.74% (26.36%) |
16.27% (63.96%) |
| 総合 | 60.43% (73.48%) |
60.21% (78.12%) |
60.33% (68.07%) |
65.00% (83.55%) |
75.80% (72.80%) |
64.77% (83.38%) |
57.60% (69.65%) |
90.10% (68.35%) |
そろそろ今は10回でパラメーター変えてるけど、回数増やす段階なのかも?
追記 2026.8.3 5:48
昨夜40回スタートさせて寝ました。
NumberOfLeaves: 399
NumberOfIterations: 1500
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 80
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～0 = 0点, 1～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点
16回目のNDCG@1=0.7829 NDCG@3=0.7863
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.09% (79.08%) |
26.52% (78.95%) |
27.40% (77.35%) |
30.83% (104.67%) |
39.27% (94.84%) |
29.05% (84.41%) |
25.34% (75.88%) |
57.66% (78.07%) |
| 複勝 | 59.48% (85.44%) |
59.09% (84.49%) |
59.72% (86.60%) |
61.67% (82.83%) |
72.60% (89.59%) |
63.91% (84.54%) |
56.82% (85.36%) |
89.67% (82.85%) |
| 枠連 | 15.93% (81.69%) |
15.83% (85.42%) |
15.50% (77.05%) |
24.24% (102.42%) |
-- (--) |
17.80% (78.78%) |
14.30% (77.48%) |
31.21% (78.45%) |
| 馬連 | 12.27% (76.84%) |
12.43% (75.16%) |
11.73% (78.43%) |
17.50% (78.75%) |
22.83% (62.97%) |
14.83% (76.58%) |
10.47% (78.18%) |
25.38% (73.11%) |
| ワイド | 26.66% (83.03%) |
27.95% (83.48%) |
25.03% (82.92%) |
30.83% (78.33%) |
49.32% (81.60%) |
32.63% (87.17%) |
22.62% (81.78%) |
48.71% (77.82%) |
| 馬単 | 6.25% (64.27%) |
5.98% (61.09%) |
6.44% (68.64%) |
7.50% (49.17%) |
12.33% (58.31%) |
7.29% (61.72%) |
5.36% (65.66%) |
25.38% (70.63%) |
| 三連複 | 6.11% (62.79%) |
7.22% (62.24%) |
4.92% (63.78%) |
6.67% (57.00%) |
18.26% (72.47%) |
8.28% (71.90%) |
4.29% (58.88%) |
16.03% (67.55%) |
| 三連単 | 1.36% (48.76%) |
1.66% (62.39%) |
1.15% (38.32%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.65% (42.24%) |
1.98% (43.75%) |
0.95% (51.02%) |
16.03% (62.12%) |
| 総合 | 60.64% (72.62%) |
60.27% (73.91%) |
60.87% (71.61%) |
62.50% (68.40%) |
77.17% (71.72%) |
64.40% (73.60%) |
57.89% (71.78%) |
90.01% (68.38%) |
NDCG的に高いと思ったけど、結果は微妙なままorz
2026/08/01
AIに騙される
ここ数日はGeminiに騙されて無駄な時間を費やし、昨夜、CopilotにGeminiに騙されたけどお前は出来る?って訊くと自信満々に言うので、仕事終えて帰宅して、ではお願いって感じでコード提示してもらうと、まあ、想定内でGeminiとは大差ない。で、まあ、問い詰めるとサラッと謝罪する始末(笑)
じゃあ、ああっ、その過程でやってたのはEarlyStoppingRoundの導入なんだが、結局どちらもこれの実装はまだ完璧じゃないから利用出来ないって事でした。そこで、ここまでの最適パラメーターを見せてどうすれば良いかを尋ねると
NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～0 = 0点, 1～1000は1.5乗に0～1000点
を試してみればって事で、3回目でNDCG@1=0.7824 NDCG@3=0.7872
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.35% (80.25%) |
27.29% (81.60%) |
27.10% (77.28%) |
31.67% (101.92%) |
40.64% (99.36%) |
29.17% (83.76%) |
25.55% (77.35%) |
57.60% (78.62%) |
| 複勝 | 59.39% (85.70%) |
59.09% (84.51%) |
59.23% (86.63%) |
65.83% (89.58%) |
73.06% (91.96%) |
64.65% (86.08%) |
56.41% (85.00%) |
89.61% (82.51%) |
| 枠連 | 16.29% (86.35%) |
16.68% (93.95%) |
15.31% (78.28%) |
26.26% (106.57%) |
-- (--) |
17.80% (78.60%) |
14.75% (83.46%) |
31.21% (77.77%) |
| 馬連 | 12.82% (82.86%) |
13.32% (85.94%) |
11.85% (78.49%) |
19.17% (99.42%) |
26.48% (83.70%) |
14.83% (76.61%) |
10.92% (84.87%) |
25.27% (70.07%) |
| ワイド | 27.73% (87.22%) |
29.19% (87.29%) |
25.82% (87.26%) |
33.33% (85.58%) |
50.68% (82.79%) |
32.39% (81.48%) |
24.10% (89.53%) |
49.06% (76.98%) |
| 馬単 | 6.66% (69.26%) |
6.81% (70.12%) |
6.20% (66.33%) |
10.83% (97.33%) |
14.16% (64.70%) |
7.54% (64.09%) |
5.69% (71.39%) |
25.27% (67.88%) |
| 三連複 | 6.08% (63.37%) |
7.10% (63.74%) |
4.86% (61.37%) |
8.33% (85.83%) |
19.63% (86.71%) |
8.41% (75.36%) |
4.08% (57.27%) |
16.12% (64.42%) |
| 三連単 | 1.51% (56.85%) |
1.84% (68.04%) |
1.15% (44.25%) |
1.67% (72.08%) |
5.02% (56.35%) |
1.98% (52.34%) |
1.03% (58.39%) |
16.12% (58.62%) |
| 総合 | 60.49% (76.35%) |
60.39% (79.09%) |
60.15% (72.45%) |
66.67% (91.97%) |
77.63% (80.80%) |
65.14% (74.79%) |
57.40% (75.91%) |
90.01% (65.79%) |
これまでのボーダー500より、ボーダー0にするとNDCGの値が良くなるのは理解してるけど、複勝だけはちょっと頑張ってる。18回目のNDCG@1=0.7829 NDCG@3=0.7867
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.73% (80.96%) |
27.24% (80.04%) |
27.89% (80.21%) |
32.50% (104.33%) |
37.44% (93.42%) |
29.17% (80.49%) |
26.37% (80.00%) |
57.60% (78.22%) |
| 複勝 | 59.07% (84.68%) |
58.85% (83.96%) |
58.75% (84.98%) |
66.67% (90.75%) |
73.97% (92.60%) |
63.66% (83.77%) |
56.20% (84.27%) |
89.67% (83.05%) |
| 枠連 | 16.03% (83.18%) |
15.61% (86.64%) |
15.88% (79.14%) |
24.24% (98.18%) |
-- (--) |
17.80% (76.30%) |
14.42% (80.20%) |
31.05% (78.20%) |
| 馬連 | 12.56% (81.99%) |
12.49% (79.22%) |
12.21% (85.05%) |
18.33% (78.83%) |
23.29% (69.36%) |
15.08% (77.91%) |
10.75% (84.49%) |
25.35% (71.42%) |
| ワイド | 27.47% (86.09%) |
28.06% (83.47%) |
26.43% (88.83%) |
33.33% (85.25%) |
51.14% (93.97%) |
32.88% (83.16%) |
23.53% (86.35%) |
49.32% (78.07%) |
| 馬単 | 6.86% (78.33%) |
6.75% (78.32%) |
6.87% (79.87%) |
8.33% (57.42%) |
11.87% (54.29%) |
8.41% (86.74%) |
5.89% (77.70%) |
25.35% (68.80%) |
| 三連複 | 6.05% (62.14%) |
6.81% (59.24%) |
5.22% (66.31%) |
6.67% (45.75%) |
17.81% (75.80%) |
8.41% (77.75%) |
4.20% (55.71%) |
16.44% (70.21%) |
| 三連単 | 1.36% (61.43%) |
1.66% (79.55%) |
1.09% (45.66%) |
0.83% (22.67%) |
2.28% (23.33%) |
2.35% (87.06%) |
0.95% (56.32%) |
16.44% (64.98%) |
| 総合 | 60.17% (77.27%) |
59.98% (78.64%) |
59.84% (76.24%) |
67.50% (72.33%) |
78.54% (71.83%) |
64.03% (81.65%) |
57.23% (75.63%) |
90.01% (69.71%) |
これもダメかぁ。
でまあ、Gainsを工夫しろって事でコードで
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 25.62% (77.20%) |
25.04% (75.55%) |
26.18% (78.92%) |
25.83% (76.92%) |
33.79% (73.70%) |
28.18% (81.66%) |
24.02% (76.03%) |
55.77% (76.63%) |
| 複勝 | 55.54% (83.92%) |
55.65% (83.08%) |
54.86% (84.27%) |
63.33% (91.08%) |
68.49% (88.26%) |
59.33% (81.98%) |
53.11% (84.18%) |
87.73% (82.03%) |
| 枠連 | 15.38% (89.32%) |
14.27% (84.13%) |
16.07% (92.76%) |
20.20% (108.38%) |
-- (--) |
16.44% (77.81%) |
14.05% (87.48%) |
28.88% (76.96%) |
| 馬連 | 11.61% (92.01%) |
11.07% (77.84%) |
11.91% (107.61%) |
15.00% (77.67%) |
23.29% (111.23%) |
12.98% (73.28%) |
10.09% (96.53%) |
23.79% (78.95%) |
| ワイド | 24.72% (85.69%) |
24.75% (79.01%) |
24.18% (92.62%) |
31.67% (84.58%) |
47.03% (97.17%) |
29.17% (78.73%) |
21.22% (86.97%) |
45.56% (81.76%) |
| 馬単 | 6.14% (71.47%) |
5.62% (58.18%) |
6.62% (85.97%) |
6.67% (59.67%) |
11.42% (87.03%) |
7.05% (59.56%) |
5.36% (74.04%) |
23.79% (73.98%) |
| 三連複 | 5.50% (87.77%) |
6.69% (79.99%) |
4.50% (101.08%) |
2.50% (14.75%) |
15.53% (199.45%) |
7.17% (72.16%) |
4.04% (82.89%) |
15.69% (77.74%) |
| 三連単 | 1.33% (90.34%) |
1.48% (46.63%) |
1.28% (141.79%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.65% (41.42%) |
1.11% (47.76%) |
1.19% (108.95%) |
15.69% (75.39%) |
| 総合 | 57.11% (84.65%) |
57.37% (72.82%) |
56.32% (98.16%) |
64.17% (63.14%) |
73.97% (99.75%) |
60.82% (71.62%) |
54.35% (87.14%) |
87.99% (76.59%) |
まあ、結果的に不採用なコードとなる^^;
2026/07/28
既に手詰まり一歩手前
ここまでパラメーターを色々と変えて試すもこれといったものが得られない。先日ゲリラ雷雨で中断してたパターンを昨晩50回やったけど、結局あの2回目超えるものは出なかった。これ、単に運が悪いだけかもですが、まあ、そんなものです。次の一手は乗数をチョイ上げてみた。40回でスタート。
NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.82乗に0～1000点
1回目でNDCG@1=0.7800 NDCG@3=0.7831
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.61% (77.87%) |
26.70% (77.25%) |
28.19% (77.19%) |
32.50% (95.92%) |
37.90% (84.16%) |
28.55% (76.66%) |
26.37% (77.70%) |
58.52% (78.53%) |
| 複勝 | 58.70% (83.49%) |
58.14% (82.92%) |
58.75% (83.51%) |
65.83% (91.33%) |
70.32% (84.93%) |
63.41% (83.44%) |
56.08% (83.38%) |
89.49% (83.08%) |
| 枠連 | 17.07% (90.52%) |
17.03% (95.58%) |
16.84% (86.45%) |
21.21% (83.03%) |
-- (--) |
18.67% (85.65%) |
15.45% (86.39%) |
31.89% (78.75%) |
| 馬連 | 13.37% (86.98%) |
13.56% (83.95%) |
13.00% (91.73%) |
15.83% (64.50%) |
24.66% (65.84%) |
15.82% (87.47%) |
11.54% (88.73%) |
26.40% (75.04%) |
| ワイド | 28.05% (87.35%) |
28.83% (84.34%) |
27.10% (90.83%) |
30.00% (81.92%) |
51.60% (83.93%) |
33.00% (85.12%) |
24.27% (88.40%) |
49.84% (80.63%) |
| 馬単 | 7.44% (84.03%) |
7.16% (76.49%) |
7.59% (93.62%) |
9.17% (58.58%) |
13.70% (63.74%) |
8.28% (86.24%) |
6.59% (85.12%) |
26.40% (72.51%) |
| 三連複 | 6.28% (72.49%) |
6.81% (49.44%) |
5.65% (96.16%) |
7.50% (72.08%) |
19.18% (69.41%) |
8.78% (70.06%) |
4.29% (73.57%) |
17.02% (76.78%) |
| 三連単 | 1.24% (44.93%) |
1.36% (47.99%) |
1.22% (45.07%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.65% (33.52%) |
1.98% (60.41%) |
0.78% (40.80%) |
17.02% (68.59%) |
| 総合 | 60.09% (78.29%) |
59.56% (74.30%) |
60.15% (83.05%) |
66.67% (68.09%) |
73.97% (69.36%) |
64.03% (79.38%) |
57.52% (78.01%) |
89.84% (72.92%) |
なんか出だしだけで決まるのかも?って思えたりもしますが、まあ、期待して明日の朝まで放置かな^^
3回目でNDCG@1=0.7809 NDCG@3=0.7835
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.70% (79.81%) |
27.06% (82.02%) |
27.95% (75.58%) |
33.33% (106.92%) |
36.53% (78.81%) |
28.18% (82.11%) |
26.74% (79.14%) |
58.15% (77.84%) |
| 複勝 | 59.36% (85.24%) |
58.50% (83.82%) |
59.78% (86.31%) |
65.83% (90.50%) |
70.78% (85.07%) |
63.78% (85.48%) |
56.86% (85.18%) |
89.35% (82.51%) |
| 枠連 | 16.90% (87.83%) |
16.75% (92.75%) |
16.58% (82.13%) |
24.24% (108.59%) |
-- (--) |
18.05% (78.49%) |
15.45% (85.37%) |
31.73% (77.31%) |
| 馬連 | 13.05% (85.02%) |
13.20% (85.69%) |
12.64% (84.36%) |
16.67% (84.75%) |
23.29% (62.19%) |
15.20% (83.19%) |
11.41% (87.70%) |
25.99% (73.68%) |
| ワイド | 27.73% (86.09%) |
28.42% (85.33%) |
26.79% (87.26%) |
30.83% (80.75%) |
49.77% (82.74%) |
32.39% (86.03%) |
24.19% (86.42%) |
49.55% (80.05%) |
| 馬単 | 6.63% (74.16%) |
6.51% (77.17%) |
6.44% (68.72%) |
10.83% (106.33%) |
10.96% (46.62%) |
7.05% (72.48%) |
6.10% (77.20%) |
25.99% (70.85%) |
| 三連複 | 6.40% (72.63%) |
7.40% (61.82%) |
5.29% (82.28%) |
7.50% (92.42%) |
18.26% (60.87%) |
8.78% (69.44%) |
4.53% (74.75%) |
16.85% (73.81%) |
| 三連単 | 1.42% (61.01%) |
1.72% (77.84%) |
1.09% (29.47%) |
1.67% (256.83%) |
3.20% (33.74%) |
1.85% (82.94%) |
1.11% (56.16%) |
16.85% (69.20%) |
| 総合 | 60.69% (78.85%) |
59.92% (80.55%) |
61.00% (74.47%) |
67.50% (116.05%) |
74.89% (64.29%) |
64.40% (80.02%) |
58.18% (78.99%) |
89.64% (72.51%) |
さてと、これ以上を期待して寝ます。
追記 2026.7.29 20:30
昨夜はあの後もあまり良い感じなのは出ずに17回目のNDCG@1=0.7800 NDCG@3=0.7837
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 28.42% (84.23%) |
27.95% (85.71%) |
28.61% (81.18%) |
32.50% (105.33%) |
37.90% (85.39%) |
30.04% (86.38%) |
27.03% (83.42%) |
58.21% (77.71%) |
| 複勝 | 59.25% (84.98%) |
58.85% (84.59%) |
59.30% (85.01%) |
64.17% (90.00%) |
71.23% (88.26%) |
64.89% (86.67%) |
56.28% (84.12%) |
89.55% (82.48%) |
| 枠連 | 16.22% (83.36%) |
16.39% (90.37%) |
15.69% (76.08%) |
22.22% (99.49%) |
-- (--) |
18.05% (77.43%) |
14.59% (80.05%) |
31.80% (79.06%) |
| 馬連 | 12.74% (84.02%) |
13.14% (86.04%) |
12.03% (82.17%) |
16.67% (80.92%) |
25.57% (70.23%) |
15.33% (79.52%) |
10.71% (86.77%) |
25.85% (73.39%) |
| ワイド | 27.29% (87.90%) |
28.66% (90.59%) |
25.76% (86.09%) |
29.17% (74.75%) |
53.88% (89.91%) |
32.01% (81.90%) |
23.32% (89.71%) |
49.32% (79.48%) |
| 馬単 | 6.69% (74.35%) |
6.81% (76.64%) |
6.44% (71.42%) |
8.33% (82.33%) |
13.70% (72.56%) |
7.66% (79.44%) |
5.73% (72.82%) |
25.85% (70.72%) |
| 三連複 | 6.16% (72.58%) |
7.46% (65.86%) |
4.80% (80.95%) |
6.67% (52.33%) |
18.72% (62.05%) |
8.41% (62.79%) |
4.29% (76.79%) |
16.56% (72.27%) |
| 三連単 | 1.30% (56.54%) |
1.66% (44.55%) |
1.03% (72.96%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
4.11% (45.62%) |
1.98% (48.38%) |
0.82% (60.24%) |
16.56% (67.09%) |
| 総合 | 60.49% (78.43%) |
60.27% (77.78%) |
60.33% (79.50%) |
65.83% (72.56%) |
74.89% (73.43%) |
65.51% (75.32%) |
57.52% (79.24%) |
89.84% (71.35%) |
26回目のNDCG@1=0.7794 NDCG@3=0.7837
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 28.13% (81.92%) |
27.24% (80.66%) |
28.49% (81.67%) |
35.83% (103.08%) |
37.90% (83.29%) |
30.53% (87.37%) |
26.45% (79.98%) |
58.70% (78.66%) |
| 複勝 | 59.10% (84.52%) |
58.50% (83.29%) |
59.11% (85.27%) |
67.50% (91.75%) |
70.78% (86.16%) |
64.77% (86.06%) |
56.16% (83.86%) |
89.41% (82.48%) |
| 枠連 | 16.22% (85.88%) |
16.04% (90.72%) |
16.14% (81.18%) |
20.20% (91.62%) |
-- (--) |
17.43% (81.43%) |
14.79% (81.91%) |
31.77% (79.50%) |
| 馬連 | 12.68% (81.37%) |
12.91% (80.33%) |
12.21% (83.33%) |
15.83% (69.25%) |
25.11% (66.35%) |
14.83% (83.54%) |
10.84% (82.01%) |
25.82% (73.76%) |
| ワイド | 27.12% (86.03%) |
28.36% (83.06%) |
25.64% (89.76%) |
30.00% (76.50%) |
50.68% (82.01%) |
32.39% (83.36%) |
23.24% (87.28%) |
49.49% (78.55%) |
| 馬単 | 6.71% (75.44%) |
6.69% (75.49%) |
6.50% (74.00%) |
10.00% (94.42%) |
12.33% (53.56%) |
8.16% (89.83%) |
5.73% (72.62%) |
25.82% (71.19%) |
| 三連複 | 5.99% (65.93%) |
6.99% (58.69%) |
4.92% (73.88%) |
6.67% (58.67%) |
16.89% (63.88%) |
8.53% (72.21%) |
4.16% (64.02%) |
17.13% (78.95%) |
| 三連単 | 1.13% (51.55%) |
1.36% (60.14%) |
0.91% (31.85%) |
0.83% (200.75%) |
2.28% (21.00%) |
1.85% (108.18%) |
0.78% (35.42%) |
17.13% (71.77%) |
| 総合 | 60.26% (76.45%) |
59.62% (76.25%) |
60.39% (75.08%) |
67.50% (98.40%) |
74.43% (65.18%) |
65.27% (86.50%) |
57.31% (73.39%) |
89.81% (74.32%) |
あともう一息なのはどれも変わらない。
追記 2026.7.29 21:26
チョイ上げの後はチョイ下げ。出勤前に40回スタート。
NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.78乗に0～1000点
こちらは微妙で29回目にNDCG@1=0.7803 NDCG@3=0.7834
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 28.22% (82.02%) |
27.77% (85.56%) |
28.13% (76.07%) |
35.83% (113.83%) |
40.18% (93.93%) |
29.67% (87.06%) |
26.66% (79.27%) |
58.47% (79.10%) |
| 複勝 | 59.04% (84.27%) |
58.56% (84.21%) |
59.11% (84.09%) |
65.00% (87.67%) |
70.78% (87.17%) |
64.15% (86.22%) |
56.28% (83.37%) |
89.58% (81.93%) |
| 枠連 | 16.39% (83.82%) |
16.54% (91.75%) |
16.01% (76.63%) |
20.20% (85.15%) |
-- (--) |
17.31% (72.37%) |
15.04% (82.32%) |
31.38% (79.17%) |
| 馬連 | 12.94% (82.53%) |
13.20% (79.72%) |
12.45% (86.63%) |
15.83% (65.67%) |
25.11% (64.98%) |
14.96% (76.21%) |
11.17% (86.22%) |
25.79% (74.28%) |
| ワイド | 27.47% (84.71%) |
28.48% (82.56%) |
26.37% (87.47%) |
28.33% (77.25%) |
50.23% (81.51%) |
31.27% (79.32%) |
24.15% (86.80%) |
49.09% (76.46%) |
| 馬単 | 6.89% (73.81%) |
6.45% (69.93%) |
7.11% (78.18%) |
10.00% (68.42%) |
11.87% (50.55%) |
7.79% (73.92%) |
6.14% (75.87%) |
25.79% (72.00%) |
| 三連複 | 6.19% (66.40%) |
7.28% (58.05%) |
4.92% (72.61%) |
8.33% (98.75%) |
19.63% (83.20%) |
8.65% (72.78%) |
4.16% (62.75%) |
16.73% (75.73%) |
| 三連単 | 1.45% (43.64%) |
1.60% (47.60%) |
1.40% (42.75%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.65% (38.22%) |
2.47% (56.80%) |
0.91% (39.74%) |
16.73% (67.97%) |
| 総合 | 60.26% (75.03%) |
59.86% (74.57%) |
60.33% (75.55%) |
65.00% (74.36%) |
73.97% (71.36%) |
64.65% (75.58%) |
57.56% (74.54%) |
89.87% (72.15%) |
37回目にNDCG@1=0.7798 NDCG@3=0.7835
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.96% (80.64%) |
27.12% (80.92%) |
28.49% (79.31%) |
32.50% (95.00%) |
37.44% (87.49%) |
29.79% (86.07%) |
26.49% (78.22%) |
58.78% (79.55%) |
| 複勝 | 58.99% (83.74%) |
58.26% (82.76%) |
59.42% (84.75%) |
63.33% (83.58%) |
69.41% (84.57%) |
65.14% (86.30%) |
56.00% (82.81%) |
89.87% (83.21%) |
| 枠連 | 16.74% (88.22%) |
16.96% (93.02%) |
16.45% (84.49%) |
18.18% (79.39%) |
-- (--) |
18.17% (78.75%) |
15.20% (85.78%) |
31.51% (79.04%) |
| 馬連 | 13.05% (84.78%) |
13.38% (82.56%) |
12.70% (88.94%) |
13.33% (59.00%) |
25.11% (65.48%) |
15.33% (81.72%) |
11.21% (87.54%) |
26.22% (77.13%) |
| ワイド | 27.44% (83.27%) |
28.12% (79.76%) |
26.73% (88.01%) |
27.50% (67.75%) |
50.23% (80.41%) |
32.76% (82.82%) |
23.61% (83.68%) |
49.58% (81.11%) |
| 馬単 | 7.06% (78.07%) |
6.75% (74.90%) |
7.23% (80.20%) |
9.17% (93.42%) |
13.24% (60.50%) |
7.79% (71.12%) |
6.26% (81.97%) |
26.22% (74.52%) |
| 三連複 | 6.54% (83.16%) |
7.22% (72.06%) |
5.71% (93.61%) |
8.33% (96.00%) |
18.26% (65.43%) |
8.53% (76.67%) |
4.82% (86.92%) |
17.05% (76.64%) |
| 三連単 | 1.30% (83.45%) |
1.48% (116.44%) |
1.15% (41.04%) |
0.83% (200.75%) |
3.65% (36.99%) |
1.98% (91.27%) |
0.87% (85.04%) |
17.05% (71.50%) |
| 総合 | 60.41% (83.10%) |
59.80% (85.14%) |
60.69% (80.02%) |
65.00% (97.25%) |
73.06% (68.70%) |
66.01% (81.84%) |
57.40% (83.99%) |
90.13% (74.85%) |
38回目はNDCG@1=0.7785 NDCG@3=0.7838
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 28.08% (83.19%) |
27.53% (82.80%) |
28.19% (81.62%) |
34.17% (110.08%) |
36.07% (79.68%) |
30.16% (88.13%) |
26.66% (81.85%) |
58.38% (78.53%) |
| 複勝 | 59.04% (85.05%) |
58.44% (84.07%) |
59.36% (85.96%) |
63.33% (86.50%) |
69.86% (87.21%) |
63.78% (84.82%) |
56.49% (84.94%) |
89.38% (82.68%) |
| 枠連 | 16.90% (89.73%) |
16.75% (95.18%) |
16.71% (84.05%) |
22.22% (102.42%) |
-- (--) |
18.42% (82.36%) |
15.33% (86.49%) |
32.25% (82.46%) |
| 馬連 | 13.17% (88.36%) |
13.56% (92.26%) |
12.52% (85.18%) |
16.67% (77.08%) |
24.20% (74.20%) |
15.45% (84.81%) |
11.41% (90.82%) |
26.37% (78.32%) |
| ワイド | 27.18% (84.79%) |
28.12% (82.97%) |
26.00% (87.24%) |
30.00% (76.83%) |
50.23% (83.93%) |
32.26% (82.82%) |
23.40% (85.53%) |
49.44% (79.90%) |
| 馬単 | 7.06% (78.87%) |
6.81% (76.47%) |
7.11% (80.05%) |
10.00% (96.33%) |
12.33% (63.15%) |
7.79% (76.61%) |
6.35% (81.04%) |
26.37% (75.48%) |
| 三連複 | 6.37% (75.54%) |
6.99% (59.19%) |
5.59% (91.39%) |
8.33% (88.25%) |
16.44% (54.93%) |
8.90% (70.44%) |
4.61% (79.09%) |
16.53% (74.55%) |
| 三連単 | 1.39% (49.42%) |
1.54% (44.23%) |
1.28% (43.71%) |
0.83% (200.75%) |
3.65% (48.90%) |
1.98% (68.11%) |
0.99% (43.23%) |
16.53% (70.89%) |
| 総合 | 60.32% (79.23%) |
59.68% (76.77%) |
60.75% (79.88%) |
63.33% (104.83%) |
73.52% (70.29%) |
64.52% (79.76%) |
57.73% (79.12%) |
89.70% (74.57%) |
次はどれを試すべきか...
2026/07/27
モデルサイズ
イテレーション数を2,500にするとモデルサイズが19MBとなりギリなサイズ。
NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 2500
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点
40回試して40回目にNDCG@10.7800 NDCG@3=0.7840
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 28.39% (81.37%) |
27.83% (82.88%) |
28.68% (78.88%) |
32.50% (94.25%) |
36.07% (78.54%) |
30.16% (85.50%) |
27.11% (80.24%) |
58.29% (78.05%) |
| 複勝 | 59.39% (84.34%) |
59.03% (84.01%) |
59.11% (84.20%) |
68.33% (90.75%) |
71.23% (86.35%) |
64.89% (85.67%) |
56.49% (83.71%) |
89.64% (83.14%) |
| 枠連 | 16.77% (89.09%) |
16.82% (98.36%) |
16.52% (80.44%) |
20.20% (94.65%) |
-- (--) |
17.80% (83.39%) |
15.37% (85.34%) |
31.44% (78.54%) |
| 馬連 | 13.11% (88.48%) |
13.44% (90.01%) |
12.76% (88.63%) |
13.33% (64.83%) |
26.03% (72.51%) |
14.71% (85.13%) |
11.41% (91.04%) |
25.99% (80.74%) |
| ワイド | 27.70% (87.61%) |
29.07% (87.87%) |
26.25% (88.58%) |
28.33% (70.67%) |
49.77% (80.18%) |
32.26% (84.78%) |
24.19% (89.23%) |
49.35% (81.30%) |
| 馬単 | 7.41% (89.03%) |
7.28% (89.39%) |
7.59% (89.89%) |
6.67% (72.17%) |
12.33% (56.71%) |
8.28% (96.58%) |
6.67% (89.43%) |
25.99% (78.73%) |
| 三連複 | 6.37% (73.77%) |
7.46% (59.40%) |
5.22% (89.62%) |
6.67% (58.67%) |
18.26% (62.65%) |
9.02% (69.49%) |
4.41% (76.20%) |
16.30% (69.14%) |
| 三連単 | 1.39% (74.72%) |
1.66% (46.94%) |
1.15% (94.03%) |
0.83% (200.75%) |
4.57% (48.95%) |
2.22% (79.41%) |
0.82% (75.48%) |
16.30% (64.41%) |
| 総合 | 60.72% (83.48%) |
60.51% (79.47%) |
60.39% (86.82%) |
68.33% (93.31%) |
74.89% (69.41%) |
65.51% (83.74%) |
57.85% (83.83%) |
89.90% (71.36%) |
このもう少し良い奴がイテレーション数2,000で出るパターンを探さなきゃです。
2026/07/26
ゲリラ雷雨でPC飛んだ
やられたけど、まあ、これも仕方ない事なのでね。
NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.75乗に0～1000点
継続するしかないのでまた20回。7回目にNDCG@1=0.7800 NDCG@3=0.7837
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.67% (79.35%) |
26.47% (77.19%) |
28.43% (80.13%) |
34.17% (98.83%) |
36.07% (78.08%) |
29.05% (77.26%) |
26.45% (80.16%) |
58.81% (78.98%) |
| 複勝 | 58.73% (83.21%) |
57.79% (81.73%) |
59.48% (84.78%) |
61.67% (82.50%) |
68.95% (83.70%) |
64.52% (84.45%) |
55.87% (82.75%) |
89.44% (82.82%) |
| 枠連 | 15.80% (78.04%) |
15.54% (82.02%) |
15.57% (73.01%) |
23.23% (101.41%) |
-- (--) |
17.55% (76.07%) |
14.22% (73.75%) |
31.60% (77.45%) |
| 馬連 | 12.53% (77.28%) |
12.73% (76.29%) |
11.97% (77.55%) |
17.50% (87.33%) |
23.29% (59.18%) |
15.08% (82.08%) |
10.71% (77.31%) |
26.08% (74.51%) |
| ワイド | 27.41% (84.11%) |
28.30% (83.21%) |
26.12% (84.83%) |
32.50% (86.83%) |
47.95% (78.45%) |
33.50% (88.69%) |
23.53% (83.09%) |
49.61% (80.64%) |
| 馬単 | 6.63% (68.18%) |
5.92% (59.62%) |
6.99% (73.87%) |
11.67% (110.58%) |
10.96% (45.71%) |
7.79% (71.61%) |
5.85% (69.06%) |
26.08% (71.67%) |
| 三連複 | 6.31% (72.37%) |
7.22% (64.72%) |
5.22% (79.37%) |
8.33% (84.17%) |
16.89% (59.50%) |
8.41% (67.06%) |
4.66% (75.31%) |
16.85% (71.91%) |
| 三連単 | 1.13% (39.04%) |
1.30% (51.60%) |
1.03% (29.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.20% (29.32%) |
1.48% (49.60%) |
0.82% (36.40%) |
16.85% (67.15%) |
| 総合 | 59.80% (72.62%) |
58.91% (71.84%) |
60.57% (72.82%) |
61.67% (81.01%) |
72.15% (61.99%) |
64.89% (74.60%) |
56.98% (72.23%) |
89.78% (71.62%) |
どれもこのレベル止まり。13回目のNDCG@1=0.7797 NDCG@3=0.7838
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.90% (80.96%) |
27.89% (83.82%) |
27.58% (77.04%) |
32.50% (94.67%) |
38.81% (91.00%) |
29.30% (85.01%) |
26.45% (78.71%) |
58.29% (78.79%) |
| 複勝 | 58.76% (84.32%) |
58.56% (83.78%) |
58.75% (85.13%) |
61.67% (80.83%) |
71.23% (88.08%) |
64.03% (85.40%) |
55.87% (83.62%) |
89.26% (82.57%) |
| 枠連 | 16.26% (84.68%) |
16.04% (89.26%) |
16.01% (79.22%) |
23.23% (106.16%) |
-- (--) |
17.92% (82.60%) |
14.67% (80.00%) |
31.57% (79.41%) |
| 馬連 | 12.94% (84.81%) |
13.20% (82.77%) |
12.27% (86.80%) |
18.33% (86.25%) |
25.11% (66.99%) |
15.20% (85.38%) |
11.08% (86.23%) |
26.02% (76.88%) |
| ワイド | 27.32% (87.48%) |
28.12% (83.75%) |
26.18% (91.77%) |
31.67% (80.92%) |
49.32% (79.09%) |
32.39% (86.96%) |
23.65% (88.41%) |
49.87% (80.37%) |
| 馬単 | 6.63% (72.79%) |
6.45% (69.86%) |
6.44% (72.85%) |
11.67% (113.25%) |
12.33% (55.34%) |
7.42% (82.63%) |
5.85% (71.08%) |
26.02% (73.88%) |
| 三連複 | 6.05% (71.27%) |
7.05% (60.34%) |
5.10% (85.43%) |
5.00% (30.83%) |
17.81% (63.56%) |
8.16% (71.05%) |
4.29% (72.04%) |
16.76% (77.42%) |
| 三連単 | 1.27% (38.48%) |
1.66% (50.76%) |
0.97% (28.68%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.65% (33.01%) |
1.73% (42.53%) |
0.91% (37.62%) |
16.76% (70.97%) |
| 総合 | 60.06% (75.47%) |
59.92% (75.25%) |
60.02% (75.85%) |
62.50% (73.40%) |
74.89% (68.15%) |
64.65% (77.69%) |
57.19% (74.71%) |
89.61% (74.45%) |
まあ、指数的にも大差ないので結果的にも大差ないのは当然かな。
特徴量の抽出率
まあ、これって以前は固定のままで随分と学習させてたんだけど、
NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点
20回と思って2回目でいきなりNDCG@1=0.7811 NDCG@3=0.7840
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.87% (80.31%) |
27.41% (82.18%) |
28.13% (77.67%) |
30.83% (90.08%) |
39.27% (89.50%) |
29.05% (82.87%) |
26.45% (78.62%) |
58.21% (78.21%) |
| 複勝 | 59.22% (85.04%) |
58.97% (84.44%) |
59.23% (85.68%) |
62.50% (84.83%) |
71.69% (89.13%) |
64.65% (85.53%) |
56.28% (84.52%) |
89.75% (82.99%) |
| 枠連 | 16.06% (83.12%) |
16.18% (87.59%) |
15.63% (78.96%) |
21.21% (85.76%) |
-- (--) |
18.17% (78.20%) |
14.34% (79.49%) |
31.60% (77.23%) |
| 馬連 | 12.68% (81.79%) |
13.03% (79.93%) |
12.15% (84.91%) |
15.00% (65.17%) |
25.57% (69.36%) |
15.33% (82.87%) |
10.63% (82.55%) |
25.88% (75.09%) |
| ワイド | 26.98% (83.73%) |
28.00% (82.42%) |
25.70% (85.87%) |
30.00% (72.92%) |
49.77% (83.33%) |
33.37% (88.95%) |
22.79% (82.03%) |
49.32% (80.62%) |
| 馬単 | 6.71% (68.11%) |
6.28% (64.29%) |
6.99% (72.32%) |
9.17% (64.25%) |
14.61% (69.04%) |
7.79% (76.71%) |
5.64% (65.16%) |
25.88% (72.21%) |
| 三連複 | 6.34% (77.46%) |
7.34% (69.48%) |
5.35% (87.29%) |
5.83% (54.75%) |
17.81% (60.09%) |
8.78% (67.97%) |
4.49% (82.18%) |
16.99% (79.34%) |
| 三連単 | 1.48% (55.01%) |
2.01% (75.01%) |
1.03% (38.49%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
4.57% (50.09%) |
2.35% (63.61%) |
0.91% (52.58%) |
16.99% (74.16%) |
| 総合 | 60.43% (76.74%) |
60.33% (77.97%) |
60.39% (76.39%) |
62.50% (64.25%) |
74.89% (72.94%) |
65.27% (78.34%) |
57.52% (75.89%) |
90.07% (75.76%) |
なんか拍子抜けする程期待外れ(笑) まあ、まだ沢山残ってるので今後に期待。
LightGbmRankingTrainer.Options
ランキングトレーナーのオプションを追加しました。さらなる精度向上をGeminiに相談しました。20回で試してます。
NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.7
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点
4回目にNDCG@1=0.7796 NDCG@3=0.7834
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 28.22% (81.20%) |
27.47% (81.52%) |
28.55% (79.77%) |
34.17% (96.25%) |
38.81% (89.59%) |
30.16% (83.09%) |
26.62% (79.81%) |
58.03% (78.06%) |
| 複勝 | 59.10% (84.40%) |
58.97% (83.90%) |
58.99% (85.04%) |
62.50% (82.75%) |
71.69% (89.04%) |
64.89% (85.49%) |
56.04% (83.62%) |
89.46% (82.70%) |
| 枠連 | 16.16% (83.66%) |
16.89% (94.30%) |
15.18% (73.26%) |
21.21% (97.68%) |
-- (--) |
18.05% (80.56%) |
14.50% (79.39%) |
31.12% (77.52%) |
| 馬連 | 12.82% (82.63%) |
13.38% (84.11%) |
11.97% (81.14%) |
16.67% (82.25%) |
25.57% (71.00%) |
15.08% (81.69%) |
10.92% (83.99%) |
25.70% (73.74%) |
| ワイド | 27.93% (86.52%) |
29.01% (84.65%) |
26.49% (88.36%) |
32.50% (87.50%) |
51.14% (84.02%) |
33.25% (86.01%) |
24.06% (86.91%) |
49.49% (79.21%) |
| 馬単 | 6.66% (68.93%) |
6.34% (61.78%) |
6.74% (74.27%) |
10.00% (96.33%) |
13.70% (69.13%) |
7.17% (59.75%) |
5.85% (71.97%) |
25.70% (71.83%) |
| 三連複 | 5.99% (66.26%) |
6.87% (57.77%) |
4.98% (74.23%) |
7.50% (76.25%) |
17.81% (74.43%) |
8.41% (63.71%) |
4.12% (66.37%) |
16.67% (74.23%) |
| 三連単 | 1.27% (37.80%) |
1.72% (48.92%) |
0.91% (29.15%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
5.48% (73.01%) |
1.85% (41.73%) |
0.70% (33.32%) |
16.67% (69.10%) |
| 総合 | 60.26% (73.79%) |
60.39% (74.20%) |
59.96% (73.15%) |
62.50% (76.92%) |
75.80% (78.60%) |
65.51% (72.75%) |
57.11% (73.17%) |
89.84% (72.60%) |
なかなか思うように精度が上がらない。13回目のNDCG@1=0.7795 NDCG@3=0.7831
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 28.08% (81.59%) |
27.29% (80.98%) |
28.43% (80.13%) |
34.17% (110.08%) |
38.36% (88.36%) |
28.92% (82.89%) |
26.86% (80.54%) |
59.07% (79.97%) |
| 複勝 | 59.48% (85.42%) |
59.03% (84.55%) |
59.11% (85.32%) |
70.83% (99.00%) |
70.78% (86.21%) |
65.27% (86.66%) |
56.53% (84.93%) |
89.73% (83.10%) |
| 枠連 | 16.77% (89.63%) |
17.10% (99.23%) |
16.07% (80.32%) |
23.23% (101.11%) |
-- (--) |
17.92% (78.99%) |
15.33% (87.49%) |
31.96% (80.12%) |
| 馬連 | 13.17% (87.17%) |
13.97% (91.47%) |
12.03% (83.54%) |
17.50% (76.42%) |
26.94% (75.07%) |
15.57% (84.82%) |
11.12% (89.04%) |
26.48% (82.58%) |
| ワイド | 27.70% (86.22%) |
29.25% (87.12%) |
25.76% (85.68%) |
32.50% (81.00%) |
53.42% (87.81%) |
32.39% (83.39%) |
23.82% (87.03%) |
50.19% (81.46%) |
| 馬単 | 7.00% (79.85%) |
6.81% (80.08%) |
7.05% (78.80%) |
9.17% (91.08%) |
15.53% (77.21%) |
7.17% (71.26%) |
6.18% (82.95%) |
26.48% (80.58%) |
| 三連複 | 6.02% (55.83%) |
6.93% (52.97%) |
4.92% (56.11%) |
8.33% (92.42%) |
17.81% (66.39%) |
8.28% (63.04%) |
4.20% (52.48%) |
16.85% (69.63%) |
| 三連単 | 1.30% (36.00%) |
1.54% (33.36%) |
1.15% (41.33%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
4.57% (49.68%) |
2.10% (48.76%) |
0.74% (30.51%) |
16.85% (63.76%) |
| 総合 | 60.81% (75.02%) |
60.45% (75.73%) |
60.45% (73.87%) |
70.83% (80.95%) |
74.89% (75.82%) |
65.76% (74.98%) |
57.89% (74.37%) |
90.13% (71.62%) |
なんとなくNDCG@1も高いのが当然良いんだけど、NDCG@3が高い方が良い感じもする。
あと少しが
昨晩は
NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点
10回目にNDCG@1=0.7794 NDCG@3=0.7830
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 28.13% (81.70%) |
27.83% (83.13%) |
28.25% (79.59%) |
30.83% (90.67%) |
37.44% (84.84%) |
29.54% (80.00%) |
26.82% (81.99%) |
58.38% (78.36%) |
| 複勝 | 59.10% (84.43%) |
59.44% (84.91%) |
58.44% (83.81%) |
63.33% (86.08%) |
72.60% (90.46%) |
63.66% (83.03%) |
56.37% (84.35%) |
89.84% (82.98%) |
| 枠連 | 16.45% (88.01%) |
16.82% (97.18%) |
15.88% (80.20%) |
20.20% (81.82%) |
-- (--) |
17.92% (80.83%) |
14.92% (84.82%) |
31.15% (78.22%) |
| 馬連 | 13.14% (87.42%) |
13.74% (90.29%) |
12.39% (86.37%) |
15.00% (61.50%) |
25.11% (69.13%) |
15.20% (82.99%) |
11.37% (90.55%) |
25.96% (74.59%) |
| ワイド | 27.21% (84.98%) |
28.12% (84.16%) |
26.31% (87.44%) |
26.67% (62.83%) |
50.68% (85.62%) |
31.40% (80.82%) |
23.69% (86.32%) |
49.78% (79.06%) |
| 馬単 | 7.09% (80.80%) |
6.87% (81.53%) |
7.11% (80.79%) |
10.00% (70.75%) |
11.87% (57.40%) |
8.28% (83.96%) |
6.26% (81.87%) |
25.96% (72.33%) |
| 三連複 | 6.19% (59.29%) |
6.93% (53.03%) |
5.29% (64.05%) |
8.33% (82.00%) |
19.18% (70.46%) |
8.28% (59.72%) |
4.33% (58.13%) |
16.50% (80.59%) |
| 三連単 | 1.39% (48.96%) |
1.66% (51.04%) |
1.22% (50.40%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.65% (38.26%) |
1.98% (42.48%) |
0.99% (52.08%) |
16.50% (74.32%) |
| 総合 | 60.38% (76.80%) |
60.81% (77.76%) |
59.66% (76.56%) |
64.17% (66.62%) |
76.71% (70.88%) |
64.52% (74.23%) |
57.52% (77.51%) |
90.19% (75.89%) |
38回目にNDCG@1=0.7790 NDCG@3=0.7835
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 28.08% (83.19%) |
27.53% (82.80%) |
28.19% (81.62%) |
34.17% (110.08%) |
36.07% (79.68%) |
30.16% (88.13%) |
26.66% (81.85%) |
58.38% (78.53%) |
| 複勝 | 59.04% (85.05%) |
58.44% (84.07%) |
59.36% (85.96%) |
63.33% (86.50%) |
69.86% (87.21%) |
63.78% (84.82%) |
56.49% (84.94%) |
89.38% (82.68%) |
| 枠連 | 16.90% (89.73%) |
16.75% (95.18%) |
16.71% (84.05%) |
22.22% (102.42%) |
-- (--) |
18.42% (82.36%) |
15.33% (86.49%) |
32.25% (82.46%) |
| 馬連 | 13.17% (88.36%) |
13.56% (92.26%) |
12.52% (85.18%) |
16.67% (77.08%) |
24.20% (74.20%) |
15.45% (84.81%) |
11.41% (90.82%) |
26.37% (78.32%) |
| ワイド | 27.18% (84.79%) |
28.12% (82.97%) |
26.00% (87.24%) |
30.00% (76.83%) |
50.23% (83.93%) |
32.26% (82.82%) |
23.40% (85.53%) |
49.44% (79.90%) |
| 馬単 | 7.06% (78.87%) |
6.81% (76.47%) |
7.11% (80.05%) |
10.00% (96.33%) |
12.33% (63.15%) |
7.79% (76.61%) |
6.35% (81.04%) |
26.37% (75.48%) |
| 三連複 | 6.37% (75.54%) |
6.99% (59.19%) |
5.59% (91.39%) |
8.33% (88.25%) |
16.44% (54.93%) |
8.90% (70.44%) |
4.61% (79.09%) |
16.53% (74.55%) |
| 三連単 | 1.39% (49.42%) |
1.54% (44.23%) |
1.28% (43.71%) |
0.83% (200.75%) |
3.65% (48.90%) |
1.98% (68.11%) |
0.99% (43.23%) |
16.53% (70.89%) |
| 総合 | 60.32% (79.23%) |
59.68% (76.77%) |
60.75% (79.88%) |
63.33% (104.83%) |
73.52% (70.29%) |
64.52% (79.76%) |
57.73% (79.12%) |
89.70% (74.57%) |
イテレーション数2,000ではなのか、モデルサイズ自体はまだ15MB程度なのでもう少し葉を増やすべきかなぁ。これ、40回やるのに6時間程掛かる。
追記 2026.7.26 9:07
モデルファイル整理してて見つけた21回目のNDCG@1=0.7782 NDCG@3=0.7836
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 28.42% (82.05%) |
28.00% (83.27%) |
28.55% (79.11%) |
32.50% (105.08%) |
38.36% (85.16%) |
30.41% (88.15%) |
26.86% (79.73%) |
58.44% (78.26%) |
| 複勝 | 59.45% (84.61%) |
59.38% (84.53%) |
58.93% (84.26%) |
67.50% (90.58%) |
72.60% (89.36%) |
65.02% (86.35%) |
56.41% (83.60%) |
89.61% (82.78%) |
| 枠連 | 16.65% (86.98%) |
17.03% (96.02%) |
15.88% (77.63%) |
23.23% (107.07%) |
-- (--) |
17.92% (84.18%) |
15.16% (82.40%) |
31.83% (79.08%) |
| 馬連 | 13.17% (84.70%) |
13.32% (84.88%) |
12.70% (84.82%) |
17.50% (80.42%) |
26.03% (71.69%) |
15.33% (87.75%) |
11.29% (84.85%) |
26.54% (76.99%) |
| ワイド | 27.09% (85.80%) |
28.48% (89.42%) |
25.39% (82.62%) |
30.83% (78.42%) |
51.14% (83.84%) |
32.01% (82.08%) |
23.28% (87.22%) |
49.55% (80.09%) |
| 馬単 | 7.29% (82.21%) |
6.81% (75.26%) |
7.59% (88.18%) |
10.00% (98.17%) |
14.61% (68.54%) |
8.53% (97.92%) |
6.22% (78.21%) |
26.54% (74.20%) |
| 三連複 | 6.51% (77.43%) |
6.99% (57.99%) |
5.95% (98.04%) |
7.50% (68.50%) |
19.18% (72.97%) |
8.03% (58.50%) |
4.86% (84.15%) |
16.82% (72.83%) |
| 三連単 | 1.39% (48.46%) |
1.48% (52.96%) |
1.40% (47.38%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
4.11% (52.10%) |
1.48% (34.92%) |
1.11% (52.65%) |
16.82% (68.66%) |
| 総合 | 60.69% (78.92%) |
60.92% (77.66%) |
59.84% (80.27%) |
69.17% (77.89%) |
76.71% (74.81%) |
65.88% (77.48%) |
57.52% (79.10%) |
89.93% (72.91%) |
これも単複の的中率は良いけどって感じだな^^;
登録:
投稿 (Atom)