サボってはないですよ(笑) 今週末も学習させながらコーディングもしてます。まあ、AIとじゃれてるってのもあるが^^; 先日書いたEarlyStoppingRoundの現状バージョンでは実装不可ってのをAIではなく人間が挑んだらどうかって事で今週末やってるんだけど、まあ、結局AIのサポートも受けないと出来ないので「じゃれてる」って事になる(笑) これ、実際にはそれ程重要な事でもない気もしてるが、もし実装できればそれはそれでね。でも、結局は諦める事に^^;
多分、実装するのに必要なスキルがGeminiにもCopilotにも、更には自分にも無いのが原因な気もするし、そもそもML.NET側のバグかもしれませんが、ここはそれ以上の追及はしない事にしました。
で、ランキング学習ですが、モデルのダイエットも兼ねてイテレーション数を減らしました。これね、EarlyStoppingRoundが実装出来れば、また違った感じに出来たかもですが、実装出来なかったものを期待しても仕方がないので人力で変更(笑)
NumberOfLeaves: 335
NumberOfIterations: 1500
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 60
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～0 = 0点, 1～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点
これならモデルは11.8MB程度。NDCG@1=0.7815 NDCG@3=0.7857
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.55% (81.67%) |
27.35% (79.93%) |
27.52% (81.68%) |
30.83% (105.92%) |
38.81% (96.48%) |
29.30% (82.06%) |
25.96% (80.20%) |
57.37% (77.80%) |
| 複勝 | 59.25% (84.84%) |
58.61% (83.02%) |
59.42% (86.32%) |
65.83% (90.17%) |
72.15% (90.23%) |
64.28% (84.92%) |
56.41% (84.33%) |
89.41% (82.12%) |
| 枠連 | 16.16% (84.76%) |
16.11% (92.95%) |
15.69% (76.75%) |
24.24% (95.35%) |
-- (--) |
17.92% (81.04%) |
14.54% (80.62%) |
31.64% (81.19%) |
| 馬連 | 12.45% (79.42%) |
12.79% (85.97%) |
11.73% (73.04%) |
17.50% (74.75%) |
23.29% (63.20%) |
14.96% (81.72%) |
10.63% (80.12%) |
25.79% (73.91%) |
| ワイド | 27.38% (87.86%) |
28.36% (92.94%) |
26.12% (83.69%) |
30.83% (73.50%) |
49.77% (82.65%) |
33.25% (84.89%) |
23.40% (89.32%) |
49.18% (76.86%) |
| 馬単 | 6.74% (75.54%) |
7.28% (88.57%) |
6.14% (63.86%) |
7.50% (52.33%) |
12.79% (60.09%) |
8.03% (88.05%) |
5.77% (72.76%) |
25.79% (71.82%) |
| 三連複 | 5.93% (58.39%) |
6.87% (59.60%) |
5.04% (59.33%) |
5.00% (28.50%) |
18.72% (75.16%) |
8.03% (67.86%) |
4.08% (53.72%) |
16.06% (70.26%) |
| 三連単 | 1.33% (60.44%) |
1.60% (85.24%) |
1.15% (39.39%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
4.11% (47.53%) |
1.73% (74.83%) |
0.95% (56.80%) |
16.06% (67.16%) |
| 総合 | 60.55% (76.50%) |
59.80% (83.33%) |
60.87% (70.47%) |
66.67% (64.39%) |
77.17% (73.62%) |
64.65% (80.67%) |
57.68% (74.73%) |
89.81% (71.32%) |
相変わらずのあと一歩なモデルなのは変わらないけど、ダイエットしてるのでもう少し攻められる。NDCG@1=0.7820 NDCG@3=0.7854
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.24% (81.13%) |
27.29% (82.55%) |
26.79% (77.65%) |
32.50% (108.92%) |
38.81% (91.96%) |
28.18% (83.20%) |
25.88% (79.46%) |
56.93% (77.32%) |
| 複勝 | 58.90% (84.20%) |
58.61% (83.71%) |
58.75% (84.50%) |
65.00% (87.08%) |
71.69% (87.53%) |
63.41% (84.78%) |
56.24% (83.71%) |
89.52% (82.18%) |
| 枠連 | 16.13% (83.83%) |
16.04% (86.99%) |
15.50% (79.60%) |
27.27% (106.16%) |
-- (--) |
17.80% (77.00%) |
14.54% (80.79%) |
30.86% (77.79%) |
| 馬連 | 12.56% (77.46%) |
12.79% (79.80%) |
11.66% (73.48%) |
21.67% (99.08%) |
25.11% (76.76%) |
15.20% (76.35%) |
10.55% (77.89%) |
24.75% (69.30%) |
| ワイド | 27.06% (85.95%) |
28.24% (88.86%) |
25.27% (82.50%) |
35.00% (92.50%) |
50.68% (83.33%) |
33.37% (84.97%) |
22.83% (86.52%) |
48.65% (76.99%) |
| 馬単 | 6.63% (67.83%) |
6.81% (73.76%) |
5.95% (59.51%) |
13.33% (98.42%) |
13.24% (81.28%) |
7.54% (59.34%) |
5.73% (69.44%) |
24.75% (66.90%) |
| 三連複 | 5.88% (65.02%) |
6.81% (67.37%) |
4.80% (62.58%) |
7.50% (65.50%) |
16.89% (64.25%) |
8.16% (74.55%) |
4.12% (61.92%) |
16.15% (65.54%) |
| 三連単 | 1.48% (68.58%) |
1.84% (95.44%) |
1.15% (44.36%) |
0.83% (22.67%) |
4.11% (136.53%) |
1.85% (54.04%) |
1.11% (67.29%) |
16.15% (59.60%) |
| 総合 | 60.26% (76.65%) |
59.92% (82.21%) |
60.21% (70.47%) |
65.83% (84.57%) |
75.34% (88.81%) |
63.78% (74.28%) |
57.73% (75.88%) |
89.78% (66.10%) |
NDCG的には随分と上がってるのは、やはりボーダーを0にしたからなんだとは思うけど、検証結果が付いてこない。
NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 1500
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 70
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～0 = 0点, 1～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点
葉の最小を増やして3回目にNDCG@1=0.7821 NDCG@3=0.7862
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.47% (81.67%) |
27.53% (83.87%) |
26.97% (77.59%) |
33.33% (106.50%) |
40.18% (100.14%) |
29.30% (85.14%) |
25.71% (78.84%) |
56.87% (76.86%) |
| 複勝 | 59.39% (85.35%) |
59.03% (84.45%) |
59.42% (86.25%) |
64.17% (85.50%) |
72.15% (89.82%) |
64.28% (85.44%) |
56.61% (84.91%) |
89.78% (82.14%) |
| 枠連 | 15.77% (81.52%) |
16.18% (90.06%) |
14.87% (72.92%) |
24.24% (96.67%) |
-- (--) |
18.05% (81.74%) |
14.01% (76.27%) |
30.89% (77.19%) |
| 馬連 | 12.27% (78.84%) |
12.73% (83.10%) |
11.36% (74.08%) |
18.33% (84.00%) |
22.83% (61.96%) |
14.96% (82.47%) |
10.42% (79.15%) |
25.01% (68.71%) |
| ワイド | 27.41% (84.63%) |
29.07% (87.19%) |
25.52% (82.90%) |
30.00% (72.33%) |
51.60% (86.26%) |
33.37% (87.10%) |
23.24% (83.66%) |
48.36% (76.42%) |
| 馬単 | 6.31% (68.37%) |
6.39% (76.10%) |
5.89% (60.24%) |
10.83% (71.08%) |
12.33% (56.58%) |
7.54% (81.73%) |
5.36% (64.98%) |
25.01% (66.39%) |
| 三連複 | 6.02% (64.56%) |
6.93% (58.54%) |
4.98% (69.06%) |
7.50% (87.50%) |
18.72% (76.35%) |
7.91% (65.86%) |
4.24% (63.06%) |
16.27% (69.04%) |
| 三連単 | 1.22% (43.79%) |
1.48% (63.64%) |
0.91% (21.74%) |
1.67% (67.08%) |
3.65% (38.49%) |
1.98% (97.54%) |
0.74% (26.36%) |
16.27% (63.96%) |
| 総合 | 60.43% (73.48%) |
60.21% (78.12%) |
60.33% (68.07%) |
65.00% (83.55%) |
75.80% (72.80%) |
64.77% (83.38%) |
57.60% (69.65%) |
90.10% (68.35%) |
そろそろ今は10回でパラメーター変えてるけど、回数増やす段階なのかも?
追記 2026.8.3 5:48
昨夜40回スタートさせて寝ました。
NumberOfLeaves: 399
NumberOfIterations: 1500
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 80
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～0 = 0点, 1～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点
16回目のNDCG@1=0.7829 NDCG@3=0.7863
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.09% (79.08%) |
26.52% (78.95%) |
27.40% (77.35%) |
30.83% (104.67%) |
39.27% (94.84%) |
29.05% (84.41%) |
25.34% (75.88%) |
57.66% (78.07%) |
| 複勝 | 59.48% (85.44%) |
59.09% (84.49%) |
59.72% (86.60%) |
61.67% (82.83%) |
72.60% (89.59%) |
63.91% (84.54%) |
56.82% (85.36%) |
89.67% (82.85%) |
| 枠連 | 15.93% (81.69%) |
15.83% (85.42%) |
15.50% (77.05%) |
24.24% (102.42%) |
-- (--) |
17.80% (78.78%) |
14.30% (77.48%) |
31.21% (78.45%) |
| 馬連 | 12.27% (76.84%) |
12.43% (75.16%) |
11.73% (78.43%) |
17.50% (78.75%) |
22.83% (62.97%) |
14.83% (76.58%) |
10.47% (78.18%) |
25.38% (73.11%) |
| ワイド | 26.66% (83.03%) |
27.95% (83.48%) |
25.03% (82.92%) |
30.83% (78.33%) |
49.32% (81.60%) |
32.63% (87.17%) |
22.62% (81.78%) |
48.71% (77.82%) |
| 馬単 | 6.25% (64.27%) |
5.98% (61.09%) |
6.44% (68.64%) |
7.50% (49.17%) |
12.33% (58.31%) |
7.29% (61.72%) |
5.36% (65.66%) |
25.38% (70.63%) |
| 三連複 | 6.11% (62.79%) |
7.22% (62.24%) |
4.92% (63.78%) |
6.67% (57.00%) |
18.26% (72.47%) |
8.28% (71.90%) |
4.29% (58.88%) |
16.03% (67.55%) |
| 三連単 | 1.36% (48.76%) |
1.66% (62.39%) |
1.15% (38.32%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.65% (42.24%) |
1.98% (43.75%) |
0.95% (51.02%) |
16.03% (62.12%) |
| 総合 | 60.64% (72.62%) |
60.27% (73.91%) |
60.87% (71.61%) |
62.50% (68.40%) |
77.17% (71.72%) |
64.40% (73.60%) |
57.89% (71.78%) |
90.01% (68.38%) |
NDCG的に高いと思ったけど、結果は微妙なままorz
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