ボーダーを0にする時と500にする時でNDCGがボーダー0の時は高く、ボーダー500の時には低くなるのは、何度も学習させてきて分かってます。今朝出勤前に
NumberOfLeaves: 399
NumberOfIterations: 1500
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 80
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点
で40回スタートしてました。微妙な感じですが7回目にNDCG@1=0.7803 NDCG@3=0.7832
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.87% (82.19%) |
27.47% (81.89%) |
28.07% (81.91%) |
30.83% (90.33%) |
35.62% (80.50%) |
29.17% (83.62%) |
26.74% (81.87%) |
58.09% (78.98%) |
| 複勝 | 58.47% (83.66%) |
58.02% (82.78%) |
58.63% (84.40%) |
62.50% (85.92%) |
68.49% (84.84%) |
63.66% (84.08%) |
55.83% (83.42%) |
89.78% (82.63%) |
| 枠連 | 15.90% (81.41%) |
16.18% (88.48%) |
15.12% (73.47%) |
24.24% (107.17%) |
-- (--) |
18.54% (81.40%) |
14.01% (76.25%) |
30.69% (77.15%) |
| 馬連 | 12.50% (76.87%) |
13.14% (79.53%) |
11.60% (74.47%) |
15.83% (72.25%) |
24.66% (65.98%) |
15.57% (83.00%) |
10.38% (75.80%) |
25.44% (73.67%) |
| ワイド | 26.74% (84.81%) |
28.24% (88.47%) |
25.09% (82.22%) |
28.33% (68.92%) |
50.23% (81.51%) |
32.63% (85.95%) |
22.66% (84.73%) |
48.97% (79.24%) |
| 馬単 | 6.57% (73.13%) |
6.57% (75.58%) |
6.38% (69.43%) |
9.17% (89.17%) |
13.24% (62.83%) |
7.66% (85.70%) |
5.60% (69.86%) |
25.44% (71.42%) |
| 三連複 | 6.22% (71.75%) |
7.10% (55.24%) |
5.29% (88.28%) |
6.67% (77.50%) |
19.18% (78.13%) |
8.41% (71.05%) |
4.33% (71.41%) |
16.61% (83.00%) |
| 三連単 | 1.33% (46.97%) |
1.72% (54.21%) |
0.97% (28.32%) |
0.83% (200.75%) |
4.11% (49.00%) |
2.22% (84.77%) |
0.78% (34.18%) |
16.61% (75.50%) |
| 総合 | 59.71% (75.01%) |
59.15% (75.50%) |
59.90% (72.81%) |
65.00% (98.82%) |
72.60% (71.83%) |
64.40% (82.45%) |
56.98% (72.19%) |
90.04% (76.47%) |
後は18回目にNDCG@1=0.7794 NDCG@3=0.7833
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.61% (79.21%) |
27.29% (81.05%) |
27.64% (76.51%) |
31.67% (90.42%) |
38.36% (87.31%) |
28.31% (78.00%) |
26.41% (78.89%) |
58.58% (78.52%) |
| 複勝 | 58.84% (83.77%) |
58.02% (83.11%) |
59.30% (84.30%) |
64.17% (85.83%) |
70.32% (87.21%) |
64.03% (84.30%) |
56.08% (83.28%) |
89.58% (82.07%) |
| 枠連 | 16.39% (84.10%) |
16.47% (88.41%) |
16.01% (79.51%) |
21.21% (95.76%) |
-- (--) |
18.05% (79.46%) |
14.79% (80.31%) |
31.44% (79.58%) |
| 馬連 | 12.85% (82.76%) |
13.20% (81.72%) |
12.21% (84.02%) |
16.67% (80.00%) |
23.74% (62.24%) |
15.45% (84.96%) |
11.00% (83.88%) |
25.64% (74.32%) |
| ワイド | 27.96% (90.02%) |
28.77% (92.31%) |
26.85% (88.20%) |
31.67% (82.83%) |
51.60% (83.61%) |
33.00% (89.33%) |
24.15% (90.83%) |
49.12% (77.96%) |
| 馬単 | 7.03% (77.15%) |
6.57% (66.61%) |
7.29% (86.06%) |
10.00% (103.17%) |
14.61% (66.71%) |
7.42% (76.39%) |
6.22% (78.34%) |
25.64% (71.84%) |
| 三連複 | 6.05% (67.82%) |
6.75% (56.05%) |
5.29% (80.05%) |
6.67% (65.75%) |
16.89% (60.18%) |
8.41% (62.69%) |
4.29% (70.22%) |
16.70% (75.42%) |
| 三連単 | 1.48% (51.70%) |
1.66% (46.97%) |
1.28% (44.19%) |
1.67% (221.25%) |
4.11% (47.72%) |
2.10% (80.14%) |
1.03% (42.58%) |
16.70% (68.49%) |
| 総合 | 60.12% (76.97%) |
59.33% (74.24%) |
60.63% (77.85%) |
64.17% (103.29%) |
74.89% (70.71%) |
64.52% (79.41%) |
57.31% (76.04%) |
89.90% (72.45%) |
こちらは随分と頑張ってる感じがしますが、でも、もう一押し欲しいんだよね。今回、まあ、ボーダー0は一区切りして、ボーダー500を攻める予定なんだけど、流石に葉を399までしたし、葉の最初も80にあげてるので、モデルサイズが13MB超えにはなってます。自分の感覚的にはやはりボーダー500の方が検証結果的には上かな?
モデルサイズ的にはまたもう少し肥大化しても耐えられそうなので、攻めようかと思うけど、まあ、正攻法的には多分葉を増やすんだと思うので、ここは葉を415にして20回試してみます。20回なら寝る前に条件替えて40回とかも行けるしね。
追記 2026.8.4 5:30
NumberOfLeaves: 447
NumberOfIterations: 1500
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 80
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点
昨夜はこれで40回スタートして寝たんですが、思いのほか良くなかった。唯一16回目のNDCG@1=0.7804 NDCG@3=0.7835に期待したが
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.90% (81.33%) |
27.29% (81.18%) |
28.13% (80.43%) |
33.33% (95.67%) |
36.99% (81.64%) |
29.05% (84.14%) |
26.70% (80.36%) |
58.47% (79.10%) |
| 複勝 | 58.78% (83.62%) |
58.50% (83.74%) |
58.57% (83.07%) |
65.83% (89.33%) |
71.23% (86.62%) |
63.91% (84.59%) |
55.95% (83.02%) |
89.70% (82.89%) |
| 枠連 | 16.65% (85.36%) |
16.18% (86.59%) |
16.52% (83.68%) |
25.25% (94.55%) |
-- (--) |
18.79% (83.87%) |
14.87% (80.44%) |
31.34% (79.20%) |
| 馬連 | 13.20% (83.10%) |
13.08% (79.25%) |
12.82% (87.02%) |
20.00% (83.50%) |
24.20% (65.57%) |
16.32% (88.07%) |
11.17% (83.02%) |
25.90% (82.17%) |
| ワイド | 27.21% (83.47%) |
28.18% (83.30%) |
25.88% (84.36%) |
31.67% (73.75%) |
50.23% (84.06%) |
32.26% (82.90%) |
23.44% (83.61%) |
49.35% (81.98%) |
| 馬単 | 6.95% (70.58%) |
6.39% (65.21%) |
7.11% (74.48%) |
12.50% (92.67%) |
12.79% (59.77%) |
8.16% (74.82%) |
6.02% (70.14%) |
25.90% (79.74%) |
| 三連複 | 6.28% (75.46%) |
6.99% (57.59%) |
5.47% (93.54%) |
7.50% (79.00%) |
18.72% (75.43%) |
8.41% (62.40%) |
4.45% (79.81%) |
16.85% (74.42%) |
| 三連単 | 1.48% (45.64%) |
1.66% (45.38%) |
1.34% (45.16%) |
0.83% (56.08%) |
4.57% (52.60%) |
2.35% (52.26%) |
0.91% (42.81%) |
16.85% (69.37%) |
| 総合 | 60.00% (75.94%) |
59.62% (72.49%) |
59.96% (78.94%) |
65.83% (82.81%) |
74.43% (72.24%) |
64.40% (76.63%) |
57.23% (75.40%) |
90.07% (74.59%) |
これでは全然ダメだし、その前15回目のNDCG@1=0.7784 NDCG@3=0.7831
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.90% (80.76%) |
26.88% (78.98%) |
28.61% (81.65%) |
32.50% (93.42%) |
38.36% (86.39%) |
29.17% (79.63%) |
26.53% (80.62%) |
58.32% (78.57%) |
| 複勝 | 58.84% (83.85%) |
58.02% (82.42%) |
59.23% (85.23%) |
65.00% (85.08%) |
72.60% (89.41%) |
63.78% (83.63%) |
55.95% (83.42%) |
89.73% (82.89%) |
| 枠連 | 16.35% (85.06%) |
16.11% (88.18%) |
16.20% (81.33%) |
22.22% (99.80%) |
-- (--) |
19.04% (87.52%) |
14.42% (78.84%) |
31.83% (79.55%) |
| 馬連 | 12.91% (84.09%) |
13.14% (82.02%) |
12.39% (86.81%) |
16.67% (75.92%) |
23.74% (61.32%) |
16.32% (91.73%) |
10.80% (83.60%) |
25.88% (74.58%) |
| ワイド | 27.03% (86.17%) |
28.30% (84.59%) |
25.64% (89.13%) |
28.33% (68.00%) |
49.32% (79.73%) |
32.26% (85.27%) |
23.28% (87.06%) |
49.23% (79.26%) |
| 馬単 | 6.69% (71.72%) |
6.51% (67.68%) |
6.74% (74.90%) |
8.33% (85.00%) |
12.79% (54.47%) |
8.41% (87.29%) |
5.56% (68.09%) |
25.88% (71.70%) |
| 三連複 | 6.02% (63.57%) |
6.81% (50.91%) |
5.16% (76.70%) |
6.67% (61.58%) |
18.26% (65.98%) |
8.28% (58.07%) |
4.16% (65.18%) |
16.56% (78.49%) |
| 三連単 | 1.30% (35.80%) |
1.54% (34.95%) |
1.15% (39.28%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.65% (39.91%) |
2.35% (54.75%) |
0.74% (29.11%) |
16.56% (71.45%) |
| 総合 | 60.00% (73.72%) |
59.21% (70.86%) |
60.45% (76.85%) |
65.00% (70.46%) |
76.26% (68.17%) |
64.40% (78.49%) |
57.07% (71.99%) |
90.04% (74.30%) |
やはりこれでは更にダメだ。むやみに葉を増やしてもダメな事は分かった。これらは既に15MB超えてるし^^;
追記 2026.8.4 18:32
今朝出勤前に
NumberOfLeaves: 399
NumberOfIterations: 1500
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 63
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 80
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点
これで40回スタートしてました。これは選択ミスかも? 32回目にNDCG@1=0.7797 NDCG@3=0.7834
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 28.51% (84.20%) |
27.83% (83.81%) |
28.68% (83.10%) |
35.83% (104.67%) |
37.44% (80.87%) |
31.03% (90.35%) |
26.86% (82.45%) |
58.47% (78.87%) |
| 複勝 | 59.42% (85.22%) |
58.73% (83.93%) |
59.60% (86.14%) |
66.67% (90.83%) |
70.32% (85.53%) |
65.14% (86.21%) |
56.53% (84.87%) |
89.93% (83.28%) |
| 枠連 | 16.52% (85.71%) |
16.11% (87.01%) |
16.45% (83.44%) |
23.23% (103.13%) |
-- (--) |
18.67% (82.62%) |
14.75% (81.30%) |
31.67% (80.38%) |
| 馬連 | 13.00% (81.82%) |
12.85% (77.72%) |
12.82% (85.69%) |
17.50% (86.42%) |
23.29% (59.50%) |
16.07% (88.31%) |
11.04% (81.67%) |
25.79% (74.53%) |
| ワイド | 27.50% (87.44%) |
27.95% (87.83%) |
26.91% (88.09%) |
29.17% (72.83%) |
49.77% (85.66%) |
33.50% (87.53%) |
23.49% (87.56%) |
49.32% (80.06%) |
| 馬単 | 6.98% (77.50%) |
6.57% (76.41%) |
7.11% (76.52%) |
10.83% (106.17%) |
12.33% (50.64%) |
8.53% (95.35%) |
5.97% (73.97%) |
25.79% (72.23%) |
| 三連複 | 6.08% (70.36%) |
6.87% (56.04%) |
5.22% (84.99%) |
6.67% (71.33%) |
16.89% (64.61%) |
8.41% (65.46%) |
4.33% (72.51%) |
16.99% (76.38%) |
| 三連単 | 1.30% (36.44%) |
1.60% (43.39%) |
1.09% (31.96%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.20% (26.21%) |
2.10% (50.31%) |
0.87% (32.74%) |
16.99% (71.45%) |
| 総合 | 60.67% (75.95%) |
60.09% (74.25%) |
60.75% (77.46%) |
67.50% (78.89%) |
74.43% (64.72%) |
65.76% (80.77%) |
57.73% (74.63%) |
90.25% (74.33%) |
唯一使えそうかなって所でしたが、ダメだな。
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