2026/09/05

新馬戦は

苦労させられてますが、新馬戦用モデルは今2時間×5回の学習中です。1回目の最適RMSE 1.9148

304R 1点 芝(203R) ダート(101R) 8頭以下(31R) 9～12頭(89R) 13頭以上(184R) 多点
単勝 25.00%
(104.57%)		 27.09%
(119.90%)		 20.79%
(73.76%)		 48.39%
(110.65%)		 21.35%
(75.28%)		 22.83%
(117.72%)		 46.71%
(71.62%)
複勝 54.61%
(97.14%)		 58.13%
(101.23%)		 47.52%
(88.91%)		 80.65%
(115.81%)		 58.43%
(86.07%)		 48.37%
(99.35%)		 83.22%
(76.79%)
枠連 13.04%
(102.57%)		 13.92%
(108.42%)		 11.58%
(92.84%)		 --
(--)		 15.73%
(107.87%)		 10.33%
(88.86%)		 21.74%
(73.38%)
馬連 9.21%
(82.66%)		 10.84%
(92.07%)		 5.94%
(63.76%)		 22.58%
(119.03%)		 13.48%
(94.27%)		 4.89%
(70.92%)		 14.14%
(69.65%)
ワイド 20.07%
(100.03%)		 23.15%
(117.93%)		 13.86%
(64.06%)		 48.39%
(83.55%)		 22.47%
(86.52%)		 14.13%
(109.35%)		 31.58%
(71.17%)
馬単 3.95%
(67.34%)		 4.93%
(65.96%)		 1.98%
(70.10%)		 9.68%
(43.55%)		 6.74%
(120.90%)		 1.63%
(45.43%)		 14.14%
(65.20%)
三連複 2.63%
(70.69%)		 2.96%
(84.14%)		 1.98%
(43.66%)		 6.45%
(21.29%)		 2.25%
(23.71%)		 2.17%
(101.74%)		 7.24%
(55.44%)
三連単 0.33%
(10.39%)		 0.49%
(15.57%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 1.12%
(35.51%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 7.24%
(59.03%)
総合 55.59%
(78.93%)		 58.62%
(87.57%)		 49.50%
(61.91%)		 80.65%
(70.55%)		 58.43%
(78.76%)		 50.00%
(79.17%)		 84.54%
(63.49%)

これはまあまあかな。明日朝にはこれ以上が出ていればなお良しです。

追記 2026.9.5 6:30

今回の2時間×5回では最終的に最適RMSE 1.9069で

304R 1点 芝(203R) ダート(101R) 8頭以下(31R) 9～12頭(89R) 13頭以上(184R) 多点
単勝 24.34%
(84.57%)		 25.62%
(85.96%)		 21.78%
(81.78%)		 38.71%
(88.06%)		 28.09%
(103.15%)		 20.11%
(75.00%)		 48.36%
(74.11%)
複勝 51.97%
(88.26%)		 57.14%
(98.42%)		 41.58%
(67.82%)		 70.97%
(102.90%)		 61.80%
(98.88%)		 44.02%
(80.65%)		 80.26%
(78.37%)
枠連 9.88%
(92.57%)		 12.66%
(123.29%)		 5.26%
(41.47%)		 --
(--)		 8.99%
(86.40%)		 9.24%
(85.49%)		 22.13%
(80.58%)
馬連 8.22%
(89.08%)		 10.84%
(126.31%)		 2.97%
(14.26%)		 35.48%
(185.48%)		 6.74%
(85.28%)		 4.35%
(74.67%)		 16.78%
(67.97%)
ワイド 18.09%
(105.49%)		 22.66%
(100.79%)		 8.91%
(114.95%)		 58.06%
(103.87%)		 11.24%
(51.69%)		 14.67%
(131.79%)		 37.83%
(84.19%)
馬単 4.28%
(67.04%)		 5.42%
(87.88%)		 1.98%
(25.15%)		 12.90%
(55.16%)		 3.37%
(22.13%)		 3.26%
(90.76%)		 16.78%
(66.84%)
三連複 2.63%
(123.72%)		 2.96%
(150.10%)		 1.98%
(70.69%)		 9.68%
(110.00%)		 1.12%
(5.62%)		 2.17%
(183.15%)		 9.87%
(178.98%)
三連単 0.00%
(0.00%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 9.87%
(147.32%)
総合 53.62%
(81.10%)		 58.62%
(95.83%)		 43.56%
(52.09%)		 70.97%
(92.21%)		 61.80%
(56.64%)		 46.74%
(90.19%)		 81.25%
(119.03%)

ただ、これ、的中率的にみると前者。回収率は後者。もう少し時間延ばして回数も増やし、更に上を目指しても良いのかも。

追記 2026.9.6 6:39

3時間×10回なんで30時間掛かる。残り2回あるが中断するかも^^; いや、7回終了して保存2個。つまり5回は同じ結果。数分で8回目も終わるがこれ以上意味ないかもってか、ある可能性はは0%ではないけど、一旦新馬戦は終わりにして次始めたい。ここまでの最適RMSE 1.9055

452R 1点 芝(309R) ダート(143R) 8頭以下(56R) 9～12頭(142R) 13頭以上(254R) 多点
単勝 21.46%
(81.11%)		 23.30%
(85.73%)		 17.48%
(71.12%)		 39.29%
(92.68%)		 22.54%
(95.07%)		 16.93%
(70.75%)		 42.92%
(64.42%)
複勝 50.22%
(84.05%)		 52.10%
(86.44%)		 46.15%
(78.88%)		 71.43%
(98.93%)		 49.30%
(77.32%)		 46.06%
(84.53%)		 81.42%
(79.37%)
枠連 8.97%
(79.10%)		 8.97%
(75.21%)		 8.96%
(85.90%)		 --
(--)		 6.34%
(30.28%)		 9.45%
(97.68%)		 20.92%
(89.48%)
馬連 7.74%
(98.96%)		 9.06%
(84.66%)		 4.90%
(129.86%)		 26.79%
(122.86%)		 5.63%
(24.58%)		 4.72%
(135.28%)		 13.72%
(74.63%)
ワイド 15.49%
(91.37%)		 18.12%
(100.87%)		 9.79%
(70.84%)		 42.86%
(81.07%)		 11.97%
(53.38%)		 11.42%
(114.88%)		 31.42%
(80.74%)
馬単 3.98%
(85.29%)		 4.85%
(55.57%)		 2.10%
(149.51%)		 12.50%
(106.43%)		 2.82%
(17.04%)		 2.76%
(118.78%)		 13.72%
(72.70%)
三連複 2.88%
(111.55%)		 4.21%
(163.17%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 10.71%
(51.25%)		 2.82%
(86.13%)		 1.18%
(139.06%)		 9.96%
(62.51%)
三連単 0.44%
(9.93%)		 0.65%
(14.53%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 3.57%
(80.18%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 9.96%
(67.38%)
総合 51.55%
(80.20%)		 53.40%
(83.53%)		 47.55%
(73.16%)		 71.43%
(90.48%)		 50.00%
(47.98%)		 48.03%
(95.12%)		 82.30%
(70.53%)

ここまで比較する為にも検証は常に2025年でしてきたけど、これは試しに2025.1.1～2026.8.31(20か月)でしてみた。2025年のみだと

304R 1点 芝(203R) ダート(101R) 8頭以下(31R) 9～12頭(89R) 13頭以上(184R) 多点
単勝 23.36%
(87.50%)		 25.62%
(98.13%)		 18.81%
(66.14%)		 41.94%
(101.61%)		 23.60%
(85.06%)		 20.11%
(86.30%)		 44.41%
(66.27%)
複勝 53.95%
(91.25%)		 57.64%
(95.81%)		 46.53%
(82.08%)		 83.87%
(120.97%)		 55.06%
(80.45%)		 48.37%
(91.47%)		 82.89%
(79.07%)
枠連 11.07%
(103.52%)		 11.39%
(101.39%)		 10.53%
(107.05%)		 --
(--)		 7.87%
(38.88%)		 11.41%
(123.53%)		 22.53%
(84.73%)
馬連 9.54%
(130.16%)		 11.33%
(108.28%)		 5.94%
(174.16%)		 38.71%
(116.45%)		 6.74%
(25.06%)		 5.98%
(183.32%)		 13.82%
(68.11%)
ワイド 18.42%
(111.38%)		 21.18%
(118.82%)		 12.87%
(96.44%)		 54.84%
(81.29%)		 13.48%
(51.46%)		 14.67%
(145.43%)		 32.24%
(77.64%)
馬単 4.28%
(107.07%)		 4.93%
(55.02%)		 2.97%
(211.68%)		 12.90%
(63.87%)		 3.37%
(21.12%)		 3.26%
(155.92%)		 13.82%
(63.50%)
三連複 3.29%
(128.29%)		 4.93%
(192.12%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 12.90%
(50.97%)		 3.37%
(23.60%)		 1.63%
(191.96%)		 9.87%
(58.98%)
三連単 0.33%
(4.31%)		 0.49%
(6.45%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 3.23%
(42.26%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 9.87%
(67.82%)
総合 55.59%
(95.26%)		 59.11%
(96.88%)		 48.51%
(92.08%)		 83.87%
(82.49%)		 56.18%
(40.70%)		 50.54%
(122.24%)		 84.21%
(68.60%)

見え方が違うのは当たり前。しかし、これはなかなか強烈なモデルかも?(笑) 最近は他のアプリを全く利用しないので知識無いけど、新馬戦でここまで当てられれば十分なのかな?

on 0 件のコメント:
Labels: , ,

2026/08/30

苦戦してました

厳密には金曜日に仕事から帰宅後に始め、昨日はあらかたコーディング終えてCSV出力と新馬戦と通常用の学習初めて寝ました。今朝には相対タイムのCSV出力もし、ってか、この辺りは特に変えてないので必要は無かったんですが^^; 出来た新馬戦用のモデルの検証して、通常用のモデルの検証って思ったらエラーで検証不能。ここからほぼ今日一日CopilotとGeminiに遊ばれながらどうにかな感じにはなってきました。

まあ、そもそもはML.NET 6.0-previewの仕様変更(?)関連で躓いてる感じではあったんですが、その辺りをどちらのAIも情報不足か的確に対処がなかなか出来ず、強引に自力で動く様にたどり着いた感じです。

ただ、新馬戦用はCSVが小さく、テストってかデバッグも手軽に出来るんですが、通常用はそうも行かずデバッグ実行すら時間が掛かるのが難点ですね。新馬戦用だと学習のトライアルが10秒程度で1つ終わるのに対し、通常用は数分掛かるんです。今回特にこのトライアル毎に学習されていく筈なのに全く同じままだったりしたので、そのテストに新馬戦用では5分もやれば十分なんですが、通常用は10分とかにしても2つ目のトライアルが終わらないとかorz

19日に入院して26日に退院し、まあ、大腸憩室炎発症してから10日以上酒飲んでない。別にドクターストップではないんだが、退院前に主治医に酒はいつから飲んでいいか確認すると、ちょと呆れられて(笑)抗生剤が28日まで出てて、整腸剤が2日までって事で、自己判断で水曜日まで我慢しようかなっとね。普段は酒飲みながら作業してるんだけど、別にアル中って事ではないが作業がってか、集中力が続かない。

新馬戦用はまあね、最適RMSE 1.9377とかが出てますけど、以前には1.6797とかまでいってました。

304R 1点 芝(203R) ダート(101R) 8頭以下(31R) 9～12頭(89R) 13頭以上(184R) 多点
単勝 19.74%
(68.95%)		 21.67%
(78.97%)		 15.84%
(48.81%)		 45.16%
(153.55%)		 20.22%
(67.98%)		 15.22%
(55.16%)		 41.45%
(62.34%)
複勝 44.74%
(78.12%)		 49.26%
(87.64%)		 35.64%
(59.01%)		 67.74%
(106.13%)		 53.93%
(90.56%)		 36.41%
(67.39%)		 80.26%
(70.43%)
枠連 9.49%
(69.33%)		 10.76%
(85.76%)		 7.37%
(42.00%)		 --
(--)		 12.36%
(89.21%)		 7.07%
(52.17%)		 20.95%
(83.58%)
馬連 8.22%
(85.23%)		 9.36%
(108.57%)		 5.94%
(38.32%)		 25.81%
(108.71%)		 10.11%
(80.00%)		 4.35%
(83.80%)		 14.14%
(53.17%)
ワイド 14.80%
(58.68%)		 16.75%
(66.06%)		 10.89%
(43.86%)		 38.71%
(63.55%)		 17.98%
(54.27%)		 9.24%
(60.00%)		 30.92%
(56.32%)
馬単 5.26%
(57.14%)		 6.40%
(64.58%)		 2.97%
(42.18%)		 22.58%
(174.52%)		 5.62%
(86.85%)		 2.17%
(22.99%)		 14.14%
(56.72%)
三連複 1.64%
(28.19%)		 1.97%
(26.95%)		 0.99%
(30.69%)		 6.45%
(132.58%)		 2.25%
(15.28%)		 0.54%
(16.85%)		 8.88%
(47.13%)
三連単 0.99%
(43.91%)		 1.48%
(65.76%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 6.45%
(339.68%)		 1.12%
(31.69%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 8.88%
(46.49%)
総合 45.72%
(61.02%)		 50.25%
(72.67%)		 36.63%
(38.08%)		 67.74%
(154.10%)		 55.06%
(64.48%)		 37.50%
(44.80%)		 81.25%
(53.10%)

ただ、指数的に判断するのが良いのか悪いのかって感じですが、これまだ30分を数回なので今後に期待は出来そう。

通常用は苦戦してます。やっと3時間を1回やりました。最適RMSE 2.1402とかレベルが低すぎですorz これは以前は1.4285とか更にModel Builderでは1.3899とかね。ああっ、ただね、これって今回からは特に比較が出来なくなった。Model BuilderにはCSVデータからランダムに指定比率で学習用と検証用に分けられるけど、今回AutMLでは時系列分割にしてます。

3,151R 1点 芝(1,486R) ダート(1,545R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(188R) 9～12頭(720R) 13頭以上(2,243R) 多点
単勝 17.36%
(74.60%)		 17.16%
(80.01%)		 16.96%
(68.11%)		 25.00%
(91.17%)		 26.60%
(74.95%)		 18.89%
(80.64%)		 16.09%
(72.63%)		 44.56%
(76.53%)
複勝 42.68%
(76.79%)		 44.89%
(80.24%)		 39.81%
(73.02%)		 52.50%
(82.58%)		 57.45%
(81.97%)		 47.92%
(81.86%)		 39.77%
(74.73%)		 80.55%
(79.53%)
枠連 9.26%
(85.57%)		 9.11%
(88.51%)		 8.45%
(78.31%)		 23.23%
(156.97%)		 --
(--)		 10.69%
(87.29%)		 8.25%
(79.91%)		 21.28%
(82.71%)
馬連 6.54%
(71.62%)		 6.93%
(70.85%)		 5.44%
(65.66%)		 15.83%
(158.00%)		 18.62%
(77.29%)		 7.36%
(81.32%)		 5.26%
(68.04%)		 15.77%
(80.75%)
ワイド 15.71%
(84.21%)		 17.83%
(95.48%)		 12.82%
(70.93%)		 26.67%
(115.58%)		 37.77%
(76.49%)		 19.17%
(86.29%)		 12.75%
(84.19%)		 34.37%
(78.62%)
馬単 3.08%
(68.00%)		 3.36%
(65.83%)		 2.59%
(71.08%)		 5.83%
(55.25%)		 10.64%
(75.27%)		 3.33%
(84.21%)		 2.36%
(62.19%)		 15.77%
(79.05%)
三連複 3.21%
(63.81%)		 4.04%
(83.61%)		 2.27%
(43.84%)		 5.00%
(75.83%)		 14.36%
(81.54%)		 3.75%
(87.54%)		 2.10%
(54.71%)		 9.55%
(59.71%)
三連単 0.51%
(27.97%)		 0.61%
(28.99%)		 0.32%
(23.06%)		 1.67%
(78.50%)		 2.66%
(34.26%)		 0.83%
(59.72%)		 0.22%
(17.25%)		 9.55%
(55.44%)
総合 43.86%
(68.86%)		 46.16%
(73.90%)		 40.84%
(61.66%)		 54.17%
(100.50%)		 61.70%
(71.68%)		 48.75%
(81.11%)		 40.79%
(64.21%)		 81.21%
(65.92%)

流石に酷いな^^; まあ、本来普通に24時間とか回してたしね。これ、CSVが1GB超えてるので最低でも3時間以上って奴だから仕方ないね。

on 0 件のコメント:
Labels: , , ,

2026/08/29

今更知るML.NET Version 6.0.0での変更

いや、実の所、詳細は把握してない。しかし、今回のランキング学習での学習用CSVデータの時系列分割って話から全てのモデルに言えるので久しぶりに走破タイムとかのAutoML外部アプリに修正始めたんだが、いきなりデバッグで得体のしれないエラーが出て学習が出来ない事に気付く。

これ、特に何も修正してなくてもって事が分かり、考えられる事は、NuGetでML.NET Version 5.0.0がVersion 6.0.0-previewになった事位。Geminiに相談するとそれは既知のバグってか、仕様変更だとからしい。で、まあしばらくは時間掛かるだろうと思ってたので

NumberOfLeaves: 303
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.008
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 31
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～250 = 0点, 251～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

これ30回スタートさせてました。

[Loop 8] NDCG@1 = 0.7691
[Loop 8] NDCG@3 = 0.7751
[Loop 8] NDCG@5 = 0.7904
[Loop 8] NDCG@10 = 0.8508

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 25.88%
(80.90%)		 24.81%
(77.59%)		 26.43%
(82.04%)		 33.33%
(111.83%)		 35.16%
(89.41%)		 27.56%
(84.77%)		 24.47%
(78.84%)		 54.91%
(76.01%)
複勝 56.79%
(83.27%)		 55.89%
(82.06%)		 57.11%
(84.20%)		 65.00%
(87.67%)		 68.49%
(87.17%)		 61.31%
(84.78%)		 54.22%
(82.42%)		 87.99%
(81.55%)
枠連 14.83%
(78.66%)		 14.05%
(78.76%)		 14.93%
(74.26%)		 24.24%
(147.17%)		 --
(--)		 17.55%
(81.05%)		 12.98%
(72.87%)		 30.14%
(76.21%)
馬連 11.52%
(73.87%)		 11.13%
(73.41%)		 11.36%
(70.97%)		 19.17%
(120.08%)		 22.37%
(70.46%)		 14.34%
(79.30%)		 9.60%
(72.37%)		 24.28%
(71.43%)
ワイド 25.53%
(78.41%)		 25.22%
(74.49%)		 25.21%
(81.15%)		 34.17%
(96.08%)		 48.86%
(92.05%)		 30.78%
(79.39%)		 21.67%
(76.86%)		 46.28%
(76.30%)
馬単 6.37%
(74.85%)		 5.98%
(74.76%)		 6.26%
(67.04%)		 13.33%
(183.33%)		 10.50%
(68.26%)		 8.28%
(96.13%)		 5.36%
(68.36%)		 24.28%
(68.49%)
三連複 5.99%
(67.45%)		 6.51%
(50.80%)		 5.47%
(85.75%)		 5.83%
(50.75%)		 16.89%
(70.32%)		 8.65%
(81.17%)		 4.12%
(62.62%)		 15.17%
(65.86%)
三連単 1.13%
(45.70%)		 1.24%
(41.01%)		 1.09%
(53.85%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 2.28%
(112.05%)		 1.85%
(62.68%)		 0.78%
(34.06%)		 15.17%
(61.95%)
総合 58.06%
(72.81%)		 57.13%
(68.91%)		 58.44%
(74.91%)		 65.83%
(98.55%)		 73.52%
(84.25%)		 61.93%
(81.16%)		 55.38%
(68.55%)		 88.25%
(67.38%)

これは失敗だったかなorz これ以外に良さそうなのが無かった。

でまあ、話し戻すと折角修正したりとかして結局これってモデルの再学習を全てやり直しなんですよね。相対タイムやランキングで特徴量追加とかしてたけど、それらって実は走破タイムにも関連したりするものだったりもしたけど放置してたから入れちゃおうかと思う。って事でまた膨大な作業になりそうで少しテンションダウンしてます。

ああそれと、肝心な話だが、AutoMLでMLContext.Auto().Featurizerを使うと何やら画像とかのを勝手に使おうとして、それ用のONNXファイルか何かが見つからないとかのエラーが出る。

on 0 件のコメント:
Labels: , , ,

2026/08/28

AIは諦めが早い

Geminiに相談しながらパラメーター調整したりして進めてますが、諦めが早い! まだまだだと思うのに、これがパラメーター調整での限界ですねっとか言って試そうとしない^^; まあね、言ってもAIなんて人間の頭脳には到底及ばないレベルなんだよね。ただね、ちょっと膨大なデータを超高速に分析したりとかは進化したので、こちらがサラッと質問すれば膨大なネット上の情報から最適解を言ってくれるのはありがたい部分はある。しかし、ネット上に最適解が無い時に、独自に適当なウソを言う(笑) 誰だよ、そんなAI作って巨万の富を得てる奴!

ちょっと自分のブログ遡り、どんなパラメーター調整してたか確認してちょっと良い感じだった以前の奴を拾ってみた。いや、CSVデータの時系列分割にしてから精度が上がらないから、その突破口のヒントみたいなのをね。

NumberOfLeaves: 303
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.015
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 31
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.80乗に0～1000点

先月辺りに試してたパラメーターで20回やってみると

[Loop 9] NDCG@1 = 0.7651
[Loop 9] NDCG@3 = 0.7722
[Loop 9] NDCG@5 = 0.7877
[Loop 9] NDCG@10 = 0.8481

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 26.37%
(82.84%)		 25.34%
(80.35%)		 27.04%
(84.67%)		 31.67%
(92.75%)		 37.90%
(93.20%)		 28.06%
(87.08%)		 24.76%
(80.49%)		 56.56%
(79.63%)
複勝 57.68%
(84.86%)		 57.61%
(85.25%)		 57.35%
(84.68%)		 63.33%
(81.67%)		 70.78%
(89.68%)		 63.29%
(87.03%)		 54.64%
(83.70%)		 88.57%
(82.66%)
枠連 15.12%
(81.63%)		 14.90%
(89.57%)		 14.99%
(74.68%)		 20.20%
(79.19%)		 --
(--)		 17.43%
(82.68%)		 13.39%
(76.10%)		 30.53%
(78.81%)
馬連 11.90%
(76.44%)		 12.14%
(84.40%)		 11.36%
(68.97%)		 15.83%
(66.83%)		 24.20%
(72.69%)		 14.71%
(85.11%)		 9.85%
(73.89%)		 25.07%
(73.43%)
ワイド 26.14%
(81.68%)		 26.76%
(82.74%)		 25.27%
(81.40%)		 29.17%
(70.58%)		 49.77%
(93.11%)		 32.01%
(87.12%)		 22.04%
(78.84%)		 47.26%
(79.08%)
馬単 6.14%
(69.47%)		 6.04%
(73.82%)		 6.01%
(63.33%)		 9.17%
(92.50%)		 11.42%
(59.59%)		 7.54%
(78.84%)		 5.19%
(67.24%)		 25.07%
(70.89%)
三連複 6.48%
(74.03%)		 6.87%
(62.36%)		 6.20%
(88.21%)		 5.00%
(43.83%)		 18.72%
(79.22%)		 9.52%
(94.92%)		 4.37%
(66.60%)		 15.05%
(71.34%)
三連単 1.39%
(53.58%)		 1.42%
(45.98%)		 1.40%
(64.11%)		 0.83%
(16.00%)		 3.20%
(61.87%)		 2.10%
(70.27%)		 0.99%
(47.26%)		 15.05%
(65.32%)
総合 58.81%
(75.48%)		 58.73%
(75.26%)		 58.51%
(76.27%)		 64.17%
(67.67%)		 75.80%
(78.48%)		 63.91%
(84.13%)		 55.58%
(71.76%)		 88.89%
(70.51%)

相変わらずNDCGは低いが、的中率は昨夜のよりは全然良い。この当時はまだ乗数を上げてた頃ね。遅くなったし、今日は退院後初出勤で疲れてるのでこの位にして。

追記 2026.8.29 5:36

NumberOfLeaves: 303
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 31
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

寝る前にこれ40回スタートしてました。上の逆の乗数0.95です。

[Loop 9] NDCG@1 = 0.7671
[Loop 9] NDCG@3 = 0.7741
[Loop 9] NDCG@5 = 0.7888
[Loop 9] NDCG@10 = 0.8492

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 26.19%
(80.59%)		 25.64%
(78.97%)		 26.12%
(80.90%)		 35.00%
(99.25%)		 36.99%
(93.33%)		 28.80%
(85.03%)		 24.35%
(77.96%)		 55.89%
(77.74%)
複勝 57.51%
(83.91%)		 56.84%
(82.65%)		 57.47%
(84.81%)		 67.50%
(89.33%)		 67.12%
(83.33%)		 63.66%
(86.79%)		 54.59%
(83.00%)		 88.51%
(82.56%)
枠連 15.38%
(85.16%)		 14.83%
(92.41%)		 15.18%
(75.10%)		 26.26%
(141.72%)		 --
(--)		 17.18%
(87.81%)		 13.80%
(78.87%)		 30.86%
(79.77%)
馬連 11.92%
(82.25%)		 11.72%
(84.09%)		 11.66%
(77.94%)		 18.33%
(115.42%)		 22.37%
(60.50%)		 13.60%
(78.81%)		 10.42%
(85.36%)		 25.21%
(75.63%)
ワイド 26.05%
(84.06%)		 26.29%
(88.25%)		 25.33%
(79.53%)		 32.50%
(87.25%)		 47.49%
(88.90%)		 31.40%
(82.18%)		 22.33%
(84.25%)		 47.81%
(77.64%)
馬単 6.40%
(77.17%)		 6.22%
(80.18%)		 6.14%
(70.83%)		 12.50%
(121.67%)		 11.87%
(55.98%)		 6.80%
(79.88%)		 5.77%
(78.17%)		 25.21%
(73.34%)
三連複 5.90%
(61.69%)		 6.51%
(49.56%)		 5.41%
(76.75%)		 4.17%
(25.75%)		 16.89%
(74.38%)		 8.41%
(70.90%)		 4.08%
(57.47%)		 15.34%
(65.36%)
三連単 1.39%
(51.90%)		 1.60%
(42.73%)		 1.28%
(65.10%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 4.11%
(63.93%)		 1.73%
(48.73%)		 1.03%
(51.87%)		 15.34%
(59.50%)
総合 58.73%
(75.71%)		 58.38%
(74.48%)		 58.38%
(76.38%)		 68.33%
(83.78%)		 72.15%
(74.34%)		 64.28%
(77.52%)		 55.67%
(74.62%)		 88.83%
(67.42%)

[Loop 10] NDCG@1 = 0.7681
[Loop 10] NDCG@3 = 0.7739
[Loop 10] NDCG@5 = 0.7890
[Loop 10] NDCG@10 = 0.8495

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 26.40%
(82.71%)		 25.75%
(80.73%)		 26.67%
(83.43%)		 31.67%
(100.58%)		 36.53%
(95.39%)		 27.81%
(85.20%)		 25.01%
(80.73%)		 55.92%
(77.71%)
複勝 57.37%
(84.11%)		 56.60%
(82.90%)		 57.84%
(85.41%)		 61.67%
(83.33%)		 68.49%
(88.86%)		 62.79%
(86.40%)		 54.55%
(82.92%)		 88.45%
(81.80%)
枠連 15.48%
(81.01%)		 15.05%
(84.65%)		 15.44%
(75.17%)		 22.22%
(122.22%)		 --
(--)		 17.06%
(81.57%)		 13.97%
(75.69%)		 30.82%
(79.62%)
馬連 12.07%
(75.50%)		 11.96%
(76.57%)		 11.73%
(71.89%)		 18.33%
(109.83%)		 24.66%
(80.05%)		 14.09%
(81.01%)		 10.26%
(73.25%)		 24.95%
(73.10%)
ワイド 26.37%
(82.12%)		 26.47%
(79.79%)		 25.94%
(84.61%)		 30.83%
(80.67%)		 49.77%
(94.11%)		 31.27%
(84.65%)		 22.62%
(80.19%)		 47.47%
(75.92%)
馬単 6.51%
(74.58%)		 6.57%
(84.18%)		 6.01%
(62.71%)		 12.50%
(102.42%)		 12.33%
(78.49%)		 7.42%
(79.12%)		 5.69%
(72.72%)		 24.95%
(71.48%)
三連複 5.85%
(61.37%)		 6.45%
(47.05%)		 5.16%
(76.40%)		 6.67%
(56.83%)		 18.26%
(75.34%)		 8.78%
(73.09%)		 3.75%
(56.21%)		 15.37%
(65.85%)
三連単 1.24%
(45.88%)		 1.60%
(56.84%)		 0.91%
(33.89%)		 0.83%
(56.08%)		 4.11%
(145.11%)		 2.35%
(62.94%)		 0.62%
(31.24%)		 15.37%
(61.36%)
総合 58.64%
(73.31%)		 58.02%
(73.86%)		 58.87%
(71.67%)		 64.17%
(88.25%)		 73.52%
(93.91%)		 63.66%
(79.25%)		 55.62%
(69.12%)		 88.65%
(67.82%)

40回でも結局この2つが良い感じだけで、残りはもう一つ伸びてない。たまたまなのか、20回位までが良いのか。

[Loop 24] NDCG@1 = 0.7686
[Loop 24] NDCG@3 = 0.7736
[Loop 24] NDCG@5 = 0.7893
[Loop 24] NDCG@10 = 0.8496

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 26.63%
(82.03%)		 25.99%
(80.83%)		 26.79%
(81.38%)		 33.33%
(108.00%)		 38.36%
(98.72%)		 27.81%
(83.70%)		 25.18%
(79.98%)		 56.27%
(78.43%)
複勝 57.74%
(84.33%)		 57.49%
(83.61%)		 57.72%
(85.10%)		 61.67%
(83.83%)		 70.32%
(90.00%)		 62.92%
(85.74%)		 54.88%
(83.35%)		 88.42%
(81.96%)
枠連 15.22%
(80.62%)		 14.62%
(83.60%)		 15.12%
(74.38%)		 25.25%
(137.47%)		 --
(--)		 17.06%
(76.59%)		 13.64%
(76.85%)		 31.38%
(84.45%)
馬連 11.69%
(74.60%)		 11.49%
(77.02%)		 11.42%
(69.61%)		 18.33%
(109.08%)		 23.74%
(77.21%)		 13.72%
(72.18%)		 9.93%
(75.18%)		 25.15%
(76.16%)
ワイド 25.93%
(79.36%)		 26.17%
(79.52%)		 25.27%
(79.25%)		 31.67%
(78.67%)		 48.40%
(82.69%)		 30.53%
(78.70%)		 22.37%
(79.28%)		 47.26%
(77.31%)
馬単 6.37%
(70.22%)		 6.10%
(71.12%)		 6.14%
(65.25%)		 13.33%
(125.83%)		 13.24%
(84.47%)		 7.29%
(70.47%)		 5.44%
(68.85%)		 25.15%
(74.76%)
三連複 6.25%
(67.79%)		 6.69%
(53.24%)		 5.77%
(83.51%)		 6.67%
(56.83%)		 18.26%
(78.31%)		 8.78%
(75.98%)		 4.33%
(64.11%)		 15.11%
(62.55%)
三連単 1.30%
(51.98%)		 1.60%
(56.22%)		 0.97%
(46.17%)		 1.67%
(72.08%)		 3.20%
(122.83%)		 1.61%
(42.35%)		 1.03%
(48.80%)		 15.11%
(57.03%)
総合 59.10%
(73.78%)		 58.97%
(72.92%)		 58.93%
(73.07%)		 63.33%
(95.56%)		 75.34%
(90.61%)		 63.66%
(73.21%)		 56.12%
(72.05%)		 88.77%
(66.39%)

これは今回のNDCG@10で選んだ場合。なんしても、40回だとやはり5時間掛かる。次はイテレーション数少し上げ、学習率下げたいから回数は減らそうかな。

on 0 件のコメント:
Labels: ,

2026/08/27

学習時のCSVデータの使い方

退院後帰宅して早速PCに向かって相変わらずなんですが、Geminiがふと、学習データって一定割合で分割して学習用(train)と検証用(test)に分けて行われるのは知ってました。で、まあ、これって基本8:2とかでランダムに分割されて学習し検証されるんです。しかし、Gemini曰く、時系列の学習データをランダムに分割すると未来のデータを基に過去の予測するパターンも出てチートしてる事が指数に過剰に良く出る事があるから時系列的に過去と未来で学習と検証するべきですって話になり、その修正して再学習させてます。

まあ、取り掛かったのは当然今やってたランキング学習になんですが、これ、実際にはこれまでの回帰モデルにも言える事なので全モデルの学習しなおしになりそうorz

しかし、良いのか悪いのか、予測精度が落ちてる。これまで単勝27%、複勝58%、ワイド27%程度まで的中率が来てたのに、一律に2%程度落ち込んでるのでパラメーター調整からまた始めてます。

NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 5000
LearningRate: 0.007
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 120
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～250 = 0点, 251～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

これを20回でスタートさせて今晩は寝ます。明日は久しぶりに出勤するので早めにね。これ単純に1回15～18分程度掛かるので6時間程度かかる筈で、朝4時頃に終わる予定。

[Loop 1] NDCG@1 = 0.7673
[Loop 1] NDCG@3 = 0.7747
[Loop 1] NDCG@5 = 0.7906
[Loop 1] NDCG@10 = 0.8511

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 25.96%
(80.43%)		 25.46%
(79.42%)		 26.12%
(80.35%)		 30.83%
(95.58%)		 38.81%
(94.98%)		 27.69%
(85.97%)		 24.23%
(77.26%)		 55.46%
(78.15%)
複勝 56.64%
(84.31%)		 56.78%
(83.76%)		 55.95%
(84.77%)		 64.17%
(85.83%)		 72.15%
(90.05%)		 61.93%
(86.29%)		 53.48%
(83.14%)		 88.08%
(82.56%)
枠連 14.63%
(78.57%)		 14.05%
(83.95%)		 14.68%
(71.57%)		 22.22%
(113.23%)		 --
(--)		 16.81%
(81.90%)		 12.98%
(72.47%)		 30.37%
(77.97%)
馬連 11.72%
(78.36%)		 11.66%
(80.31%)		 11.36%
(75.26%)		 17.50%
(93.50%)		 23.74%
(75.66%)		 13.47%
(70.06%)		 10.05%
(81.38%)		 24.60%
(74.14%)
ワイド 25.56%
(80.42%)		 25.93%
(80.65%)		 24.79%
(80.34%)		 30.83%
(78.17%)		 48.86%
(92.47%)		 30.28%
(79.16%)		 21.88%
(79.75%)		 46.74%
(79.53%)
馬単 6.51%
(75.95%)		 6.16%
(72.31%)		 6.68%
(80.58%)		 9.17%
(63.67%)		 11.87%
(76.07%)		 7.17%
(67.64%)		 5.81%
(78.71%)		 24.60%
(70.69%)
三連複 6.31%
(72.07%)		 6.93%
(59.05%)		 5.65%
(86.99%)		 6.67%
(50.58%)		 18.72%
(82.88%)		 9.15%
(75.51%)		 4.24%
(69.95%)		 15.05%
(68.96%)
三連単 1.48%
(73.92%)		 1.72%
(70.46%)		 1.28%
(78.78%)		 0.83%
(56.08%)		 5.02%
(155.75%)		 1.85%
(39.25%)		 1.03%
(78.10%)		 15.05%
(65.91%)
総合 57.71%
(78.00%)		 57.79%
(76.08%)		 57.11%
(79.88%)		 65.00%
(78.83%)		 76.26%
(95.41%)		 62.67%
(73.22%)		 54.39%
(77.59%)		 88.36%
(70.51%)

こんな感じでこれまで以上に低調^^;

追記 2026.8.28 5:32

[Loop 4] NDCG@1 = 0.7695
[Loop 4] NDCG@3 = 0.7752
[Loop 4] NDCG@5 = 0.7906
[Loop 4] NDCG@10 = 0.8513

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 25.67%
(79.83%)		 25.22%
(78.70%)		 25.76%
(79.76%)		 30.83%
(96.67%)		 36.99%
(91.83%)		 27.32%
(83.87%)		 24.10%
(77.40%)		 55.20%
(77.20%)
複勝 56.56%
(83.40%)		 56.72%
(83.78%)		 55.89%
(82.83%)		 63.33%
(85.67%)		 68.49%
(84.84%)		 62.55%
(87.11%)		 53.48%
(82.03%)		 88.57%
(82.10%)
枠連 14.31%
(75.84%)		 13.84%
(80.94%)		 14.17%
(68.08%)		 23.23%
(126.77%)		 --
(--)		 16.32%
(77.65%)		 12.73%
(70.43%)		 30.05%
(78.07%)
馬連 11.26%
(72.29%)		 11.19%
(75.95%)		 10.94%
(66.45%)		 16.67%
(100.83%)		 22.37%
(70.00%)		 13.10%
(76.11%)		 9.64%
(71.22%)		 24.17%
(70.46%)
ワイド 25.27%
(78.95%)		 25.58%
(79.93%)		 24.48%
(77.50%)		 31.67%
(85.08%)		 47.03%
(87.63%)		 30.53%
(83.67%)		 21.55%
(76.60%)		 46.57%
(76.77%)
馬単 5.85%
(62.92%)		 5.51%
(65.67%)		 5.77%
(56.21%)		 11.67%
(116.42%)		 11.42%
(76.39%)		 6.67%
(72.99%)		 5.07%
(58.35%)		 24.17%
(68.33%)
三連複 5.88%
(65.22%)		 6.34%
(54.70%)		 5.41%
(77.12%)		 5.83%
(50.00%)		 17.35%
(78.40%)		 8.53%
(81.61%)		 3.96%
(58.56%)		 15.02%
(65.71%)
三連単 1.19%
(42.81%)		 1.42%
(55.35%)		 0.97%
(28.98%)		 0.83%
(56.08%)		 3.65%
(138.13%)		 1.98%
(50.79%)		 0.70%
(31.55%)		 15.02%
(63.95%)
総合 57.66%
(70.08%)		 57.84%
(71.68%)		 56.93%
(67.11%)		 65.00%
(88.86%)		 73.06%
(89.60%)		 63.29%
(76.72%)		 54.39%
(65.77%)		 88.86%
(68.50%)

あまり伸びなかった。

[Loop 6] NDCG@1 = 0.7685
[Loop 6] NDCG@3 = 0.7751
[Loop 6] NDCG@5 = 0.7908
[Loop 6] NDCG@10 = 0.8512

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 25.90%
(80.56%)		 25.16%
(75.28%)		 26.37%
(84.92%)		 30.00%
(95.00%)		 37.90%
(91.78%)		 27.44%
(79.54%)		 24.31%
(79.88%)		 55.11%
(77.29%)
複勝 56.85%
(84.30%)		 57.08%
(83.58%)		 56.20%
(84.99%)		 62.50%
(84.92%)		 71.23%
(88.68%)		 61.80%
(84.71%)		 53.89%
(83.77%)		 88.25%
(81.98%)
枠連 14.60%
(77.30%)		 13.91%
(80.37%)		 14.74%
(71.65%)		 22.22%
(123.64%)		 --
(--)		 16.44%
(76.61%)		 13.06%
(72.63%)		 30.08%
(77.19%)
馬連 11.64%
(76.90%)		 11.72%
(79.50%)		 11.24%
(72.84%)		 15.83%
(96.08%)		 25.57%
(80.87%)		 13.23%
(72.87%)		 9.85%
(77.89%)		 24.40%
(69.73%)
ワイド 25.24%
(78.13%)		 25.52%
(76.61%)		 24.48%
(78.97%)		 31.67%
(88.00%)		 48.40%
(89.63%)		 30.16%
(78.06%)		 21.51%
(77.12%)		 45.93%
(77.11%)
馬単 6.22%
(70.46%)		 5.86%
(65.17%)		 6.32%
(74.01%)		 10.00%
(96.33%)		 13.70%
(85.75%)		 6.92%
(73.15%)		 5.32%
(68.19%)		 24.40%
(66.98%)
三連複 6.25%
(68.89%)		 6.87%
(59.50%)		 5.53%
(78.76%)		 7.50%
(65.50%)		 17.35%
(77.53%)		 9.77%
(92.06%)		 4.08%
(60.38%)		 15.02%
(64.63%)
三連単 1.39%
(49.79%)		 1.78%
(62.73%)		 0.97%
(24.33%)		 1.67%
(216.75%)		 5.02%
(157.21%)		 2.10%
(74.87%)		 0.82%
(31.73%)		 15.02%
(63.43%)
総合 57.89%
(73.24%)		 58.08%
(72.68%)		 57.17%
(71.31%)		 65.00%
(107.93%)		 75.34%
(95.92%)		 62.55%
(78.98%)		 54.76%
(68.95%)		 88.51%
(67.92%)

NDCG@5の最高値で選択した。にしても全然ダメだな。

on 0 件のコメント:
Labels: , ,

2026/08/22

大腸の憩室炎

今週月曜から盆休み明けで仕事再開して、火曜は筋肉痛が酷く、にしても腹筋の筋肉痛はこれまで無いのにとは思いながら、頑張って残業もして、帰宅して夕食は完食は出来ず、さっさと風呂入って寝る。水曜も午前中の仕事は済ませて、昼休憩でも腹ってか横腹が痛いのは、これ筋肉痛？って思いながら午後の仕事再開するけど、どう考えても筋肉痛に思えなくて、上長にその旨伝えて早退。

病院で症状説明すると消化器内科は午後休診日だからって整形外科に。レントゲン撮って、痛み止めは処方するけど内科も診てもらう？って確認され、当然お願いして、今度はCTとレントゲンでやっとわかったらしく、「入院出来ますか？」って事で1週間程度の入院という事で、本日4日目。来週は退院出来ると信じてますが、PCの無い生活は辛い🥵

on 0 件のコメント:

2026/08/16

脱SafeArray(JVGetsの安全な利用法)

JV-Linkの64bit版対応時にこれまでのJVGets時の対処でSafeArrayを使っている部分がエラーだしたので、その対応色々と試してSafeArray無しで行ける方法を見つけて対応してたんですが、そもそもこれって64bitでなきゃ出来ない訳じゃないだろうって思って32bitでもSafeArray無しで行けるか、ざっくりコード修正してフルセットアップ実行中。

Visual Studioのデバッグモードでフルセットアップ開始して既に3割以上来てますが、じわじわ使用メモリ増えてる感じはしますけど、メモリリークとか例のJVGetsで読み出しの度に解放ってのが出来てないで増えている訳ではなく、単にプロセスが進むにつれて増えてるだけな気がしてます。なので、この方法は問題ないって判断にします。

これ、解放がしっかり出来てないとフルセットアップ中に死ぬのかな?

既に半分以上過ぎた状態でこんなものなんですが、ああ、これSafeArrayの時と比べればわかりやすかったかもだが、もう、また戻して試すのは辛いorz

Copilotにちょっと相談してると、今のやり方はSafeArrayを使わない方式ではなく、「SafeArray を .NET が自動で byte[] に変換する方式」だと言われた(笑) まあ、でも、安全な使い方だって言われたから良いか。

    public static int SafeJVGets(out byte[] bBuff, out string strFileName, int iBuffSize = 105000)
    {
        bBuff = null;
        object objBuff = new byte[0];

        int iReturnCode = SaraD.clsJVLink.JVGets(ref objBuff, iBuffSize, out strFileName);

        if (iReturnCode > 0 && objBuff is byte[] returnedBytes)
        {
            if (returnedBytes.Length == iReturnCode)
            {
                bBuff = returnedBytes;
            }
            else
            {
                bBuff = new byte[iReturnCode];
                Array.Copy(returnedBytes, bBuff, iReturnCode);
            }
        }

        return iReturnCode;
    }

これが実際に使っている今のコードです。

随分時間が掛かったのは、裏でランキング学習が走ってるのとざっくりなコードでまだ余分な部分があるデバッグモードだからなのかは分からないが問題なくフルセットアップ出来るので採用します。これで余分なSafeArray関連のDLL周りの宣言不要になるしスッキリ出来る感じ。

追記 2026.8.16 21:43
やはりちょっと時間掛かってるのでCopilotに確認すると修正案って

    public static int SafeJVGets(out byte[] bBuff, out string strFileName, int iBuffSize = 105000)
    {
        object objBuff = new byte[0];

        int iReturnCode = SaraD.clsJVLink.JVGets(ref objBuff, iBuffSize, out strFileName);

        if (iReturnCode > 0 && objBuff is byte[] returnedBytes)
        {
            // ★高速化ポイント：論理長に揃える（昔の Marshal.Copy と同じ動作）
            if (returnedBytes.Length != iReturnCode)
            {
                // returnedBytes が SafeArray の物理長（例：4096）で来た場合、
                // 昔のコードと同じく「論理長 iReturnCode」に揃える
                bBuff = new byte[iReturnCode];
                Array.Copy(returnedBytes, bBuff, iReturnCode);
            }
            else
            {
                // ★ゼロコピー：物理長が論理長と一致している場合はそのまま使う
                bBuff = returnedBytes;
            }
        }
        else
        {
            // EOF or エラー
            bBuff = null;
        }

ほぼ同じ条件下で

10分弱短縮してるので良しとします。

追記 2026.8.17
昨夜上記の修正を32bit版にも適用してあったけど、疲れて本日帰宅後に試しました。昨日はうらでランキング学習とかも動かしてたけど、本日はそれ無しで素でフルセットアップさせました。

35分弱なら十分ですね^^

on 0 件のコメント:
Labels: , ,

2026/08/15

学習は継続中

やばいなぁ、もうお盆休みも明日までなのに、いや、まあ、64bit対応とかは済んでるけど、未だ学習が目標値に達してない。しかも、昨日散々やってたパラメーターを失念してる。いや、こまめにここにも書いてたけど、あまりにも多いとって昨日は学習はひたすらGeminiとやり取りして済ませてた。こまめにGeminiに報告する事でメモしなくても比較とかしてくれるから便利なんだが、日付変わって「昨日の...」って尋ねても記録してないって(笑)

今朝、ふとJRA-VANの公式回答からJVOpen エラー: -303に対応する(これまでは、こんなエラーがそもそも出ると思ってなかったので考慮してなかった)処理を追加した新たなバージョン(Version 3.4.5)をリリースする作業すませた。それなりのモデルが出てれば添付しようとも思ったが、納得できてないモデル添付しても意味ないので今回は見送った。

ただ、既にこちらは32bit版と64bit版を1つのインストーラーに同胞する方法に決めて、一連の作業は作ったので、今更64bit版が含まれた場合にJRA-VANの変更申請が64bit版のJV-Linkリリースになる、つまり、それまでの間は保留状態って言われても戻すの面倒なので、それまでは変更申請はせずに、サポートサイトで臨時的なリリースのみとなる。

NumberOfLeaves: 223
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 111
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 135
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～250 = 0点, 251～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

今日はMaximumBinCountPerFeatureを少し変えてピークを探ろうかとまずは20回スタート。

そうそうに設定失敗の予感でパラメーター変更。

NumberOfLeaves: 223
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 143
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 135
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～250 = 0点, 251～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

下げてダメなら上げてみます。ダメだったorz

on 0 件のコメント:
Labels: ,

2026/08/14

下地探し

今の自宅、セキスイハイムで建て替えて既に３年目なんだけど、全体的には良好です。自分が面倒ってか時間が取れないってかは、まあ、言い訳なんだけど、石膏ボードの壁に何か付けるとかは、セキスイハイムの説明で針で梁の位置確認してってのは理解してた。当初はその昔からやってた手でコンコンと壁叩いて音の変化からある程度の梁の位置を予測して、もらった針で確認する。

いや、実は１年以上前に梁探しのツールを購入してたけど、これがハズレでした😭 まあ、レビューに正直に書いたら返金して頂いたので痛手は無かったのですが、作業は出来ず。まあ、引き渡しから住み始めて、セキスイハイムの方はなにやら磁石使って位置を楽々見つけてるのは知ってたけど、無料で頂いた針はあるので我慢して放置(壁につけたいけど我慢)。

もう、随分前からamazonのwishlistには入れてたんですが、

シンワ測定(Shinwa Sokutei) 下地探し どこ太 Basic 35mm 石膏ボード用の針式の下地探し マグネット付 79025

これ、1,264円で購入しました。

素人でも簡単にまず、マグネットで反応する場所さがして、更に上下に探すと一定の距離で更に反応する場所があり、その線が梁のある部分と分かる。今回したかったのは55mm間隔で垂直に2つの穴があるエアコンのリモコンフォルダーを壁に付ける事。ただ、確かセキスイハイムの説明ではその位置にはビスがあるのでそこを外してって話は覚えていたので位置決め。念の為に、その位置に針を刺して再確認。

まあ、こんな感じにね。

ただ、そもそもインパクトドライバーもあるんだが、失敗恐れて人力でやったんだが、自室とリビングルームで計4本のビスをしめこむのはかなりきついです。Copilot曰く、ドライバーで最初の数周回しこんで、その後にインパクトドライバーに持ち替えれば失敗も少なく楽に行けますよって話なので、次回からはそうしようかと^^

on 0 件のコメント:
Labels: , ,

2026/08/13

どこがピークか分からない

昨夜のはちと試そうとしてたボーダー値のもう少し引き下げを試してなかったので

NumberOfLeaves: 223
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 150
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～350 = 0点, 351～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

20回で試してみる。

[Loop 7] NDCG@1 = 0.7837
[Loop 7] NDCG@3 = 0.7878
[Loop 7] NDCG@5 = 0.8010
[Loop 7] NDCG@10 = 0.8546

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 26.71%
(78.89%)		 26.41%
(78.43%)		 26.91%
(78.37%)		 28.33%
(92.58%)		 40.64%
(98.49%)		 28.31%
(84.25%)		 24.93%
(75.34%)		 57.25%
(77.99%)
複勝 58.32%
(84.21%)		 57.61%
(82.32%)		 58.51%
(85.75%)		 65.83%
(89.75%)		 73.06%
(91.64%)		 64.40%
(86.22%)		 54.96%
(82.88%)		 89.58%
(83.17%)
枠連 16.00%
(86.35%)		 15.83%
(90.48%)		 15.50%
(81.17%)		 26.26%
(109.90%)		 --
(--)		 18.17%
(83.93%)		 14.26%
(81.68%)		 30.89%
(76.82%)
馬連 12.79%
(86.50%)		 12.67%
(83.56%)		 12.39%
(88.91%)		 20.00%
(94.75%)		 23.74%
(81.10%)		 15.33%
(79.86%)		 10.96%
(89.20%)		 25.53%
(72.94%)
ワイド 27.41%
(87.35%)		 28.18%
(82.78%)		 26.12%
(92.07%)		 34.17%
(86.75%)		 51.14%
(86.71%)		 33.13%
(87.38%)		 23.36%
(87.39%)		 49.09%
(78.97%)
馬単 7.09%
(87.23%)		 6.87%
(84.77%)		 7.29%
(90.70%)		 7.50%
(74.33%)		 13.70%
(93.15%)		 7.54%
(72.48%)		 6.35%
(91.61%)		 25.53%
(70.37%)
三連複 6.43%
(74.56%)		 7.64%
(77.67%)		 5.10%
(71.27%)		 7.50%
(76.08%)		 18.72%
(76.62%)		 9.02%
(69.11%)		 4.45%
(76.20%)		 16.32%
(69.05%)
三連単 1.42%
(58.35%)		 1.66%
(81.25%)		 1.28%
(39.11%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 4.11%
(139.95%)		 2.10%
(47.29%)		 0.95%
(54.68%)		 16.32%
(63.72%)
総合 59.54%
(80.35%)		 58.79%
(82.49%)		 59.78%
(78.40%)		 66.67%
(77.31%)		 77.63%
(95.38%)		 64.77%
(76.32%)		 56.16%
(79.87%)		 89.90%
(69.26%)

[Loop 9] NDCG@1 = 0.7846
[Loop 9] NDCG@3 = 0.7875
[Loop 9] NDCG@5 = 0.8009
[Loop 9] NDCG@10 = 0.8546

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 27.24%
(80.58%)		 26.88%
(80.31%)		 27.52%
(79.99%)		 28.33%
(92.50%)		 42.92%
(106.30%)		 28.18%
(81.77%)		 25.50%
(77.87%)		 57.86%
(78.73%)
複勝 58.90%
(84.91%)		 58.44%
(83.62%)		 59.05%
(86.04%)		 63.33%
(87.42%)		 75.34%
(96.26%)		 63.78%
(84.89%)		 55.79%
(83.89%)		 89.64%
(83.06%)
枠連 16.13%
(84.10%)		 16.54%
(90.72%)		 15.18%
(76.81%)		 25.25%
(105.66%)		 --
(--)		 17.68%
(78.54%)		 14.59%
(80.61%)		 30.63%
(77.07%)
馬連 12.68%
(79.84%)		 13.14%
(81.89%)		 11.85%
(77.37%)		 17.50%
(84.67%)		 23.74%
(63.84%)		 14.96%
(77.11%)		 10.92%
(82.19%)		 24.92%
(71.79%)
ワイド 27.24%
(89.34%)		 28.48%
(88.69%)		 25.70%
(90.40%)		 30.83%
(83.92%)		 52.05%
(87.08%)		 32.76%
(85.40%)		 23.16%
(90.86%)		 49.29%
(79.70%)
馬単 6.77%
(70.64%)		 6.93%
(76.77%)		 6.56%
(63.88%)		 7.50%
(77.08%)		 13.24%
(58.90%)		 7.54%
(73.60%)		 5.93%
(70.71%)		 24.92%
(68.63%)
三連複 5.99%
(71.52%)		 6.93%
(63.01%)		 4.98%
(82.14%)		 6.67%
(45.75%)		 17.81%
(68.54%)		 8.28%
(62.92%)		 4.16%
(74.66%)		 16.12%
(66.86%)
三連単 1.39%
(47.03%)		 1.78%
(67.13%)		 1.09%
(29.83%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 4.11%
(47.26%)		 1.85%
(37.79%)		 0.99%
(50.09%)		 16.12%
(61.73%)
総合 60.17%
(75.88%)		 59.74%
(78.77%)		 60.33%
(73.29%)		 64.17%
(71.37%)		 79.00%
(75.45%)		 64.15%
(72.75%)		 57.15%
(76.36%)		 90.04%
(67.90%)

[Loop 10] NDCG@1 = 0.7844
[Loop 10] NDCG@3 = 0.7878
[Loop 10] NDCG@5 = 0.8010
[Loop 10] NDCG@10 = 0.8545

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 27.06%
(80.62%)		 26.52%
(79.31%)		 27.52%
(80.68%)		 28.33%
(98.25%)		 40.18%
(98.13%)		 28.31%
(83.78%)		 25.46%
(77.99%)		 57.25%
(78.02%)
複勝 59.02%
(85.50%)		 58.97%
(84.58%)		 58.69%
(86.22%)		 64.17%
(88.58%)		 71.23%
(89.54%)		 64.65%
(85.80%)		 56.04%
(85.03%)		 89.84%
(83.71%)
枠連 15.80%
(84.43%)		 15.61%
(88.64%)		 15.44%
(77.59%)		 24.24%
(133.03%)		 --
(--)		 17.43%
(80.68%)		 14.26%
(80.32%)		 31.05%
(77.78%)
馬連 12.42%
(81.97%)		 12.55%
(82.26%)		 11.85%
(79.65%)		 18.33%
(109.75%)		 23.74%
(64.06%)		 14.83%
(78.60%)		 10.59%
(84.71%)		 25.18%
(71.98%)
ワイド 27.09%
(89.42%)		 28.30%
(90.17%)		 25.46%
(88.56%)		 32.50%
(90.58%)		 51.60%
(85.30%)		 33.37%
(85.48%)		 22.79%
(91.10%)		 49.03%
(80.10%)
馬単 6.54%
(73.74%)		 6.51%
(75.82%)		 6.50%
(68.33%)		 7.50%
(118.67%)		 14.61%
(68.63%)		 7.17%
(75.83%)		 5.60%
(73.50%)		 25.18%
(68.48%)
三連複 6.11%
(76.08%)		 7.10%
(69.60%)		 5.04%
(84.08%)		 6.67%
(57.42%)		 18.72%
(79.91%)		 8.41%
(69.33%)		 4.20%
(77.98%)		 16.03%
(70.19%)
三連単 1.33%
(45.04%)		 1.66%
(54.62%)		 1.03%
(23.86%)		 0.83%
(200.75%)		 5.02%
(61.42%)		 1.98%
(65.22%)		 0.78%
(36.84%)		 16.03%
(66.39%)
総合 60.38%
(77.00%)		 60.33%
(77.90%)		 60.09%
(73.60%)		 65.00%
(111.66%)		 76.26%
(78.14%)		 65.02%
(78.09%)		 57.40%
(75.93%)		 90.16%
(70.53%)

[Loop 11] NDCG@1 = 0.7833
[Loop 11] NDCG@3 = 0.7884
[Loop 11] NDCG@5 = 0.8011
[Loop 11] NDCG@10 = 0.8544

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 27.21%
(79.11%)		 26.70%
(76.85%)		 27.46%
(79.95%)		 30.83%
(99.58%)		 40.18%
(100.23%)		 28.68%
(80.66%)		 25.55%
(76.70%)		 57.83%
(77.97%)
複勝 58.96%
(84.86%)		 58.14%
(82.61%)		 59.42%
(87.03%)		 64.17%
(86.83%)		 73.97%
(93.06%)		 63.66%
(84.14%)		 56.04%
(84.36%)		 90.22%
(83.78%)
枠連 15.61%
(79.31%)		 15.76%
(85.74%)		 14.80%
(71.63%)		 26.26%
(110.00%)		 --
(--)		 17.31%
(74.13%)		 14.05%
(76.01%)		 31.44%
(78.70%)
馬連 12.50%
(80.60%)		 12.91%
(82.16%)		 11.60%
(78.39%)		 19.17%
(89.08%)		 24.20%
(64.34%)		 14.71%
(73.13%)		 10.71%
(84.57%)		 25.56%
(72.86%)
ワイド 27.26%
(84.65%)		 28.36%
(83.94%)		 25.76%
(85.71%)		 32.50%
(80.00%)		 52.05%
(86.30%)		 33.37%
(87.05%)		 22.99%
(83.70%)		 49.49%
(78.85%)
馬単 6.71%
(72.71%)		 6.81%
(74.66%)		 6.44%
(71.26%)		 9.17%
(65.17%)		 12.33%
(53.65%)		 7.66%
(66.67%)		 5.89%
(76.44%)		 25.56%
(69.56%)
三連複 6.19%
(65.45%)		 7.22%
(68.45%)		 5.16%
(64.39%)		 5.83%
(37.67%)		 18.72%
(76.07%)		 8.90%
(68.47%)		 4.16%
(63.48%)		 16.67%
(69.43%)
三連単 1.33%
(56.14%)		 1.78%
(85.25%)		 0.97%
(30.36%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 3.65%
(40.00%)		 2.10%
(49.25%)		 0.87%
(59.90%)		 16.67%
(64.34%)
総合 60.03%
(75.30%)		 59.50%
(79.84%)		 60.21%
(71.09%)		 65.00%
(70.17%)		 78.54%
(73.38%)		 63.91%
(72.94%)		 57.07%
(75.64%)		 90.59%
(69.61%)
on 0 件のコメント:
Labels: ,

深く

10回程度で探ってきたけど、ちょっと掘り下げてピークを探す段階に。

NumberOfLeaves: 255
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 100
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～400 = 0点, 401～1000は0.94乗に0～1000点

40回スタートして寝た。

[Loop 32] NDCG@1 = 0.7840
[Loop 32] NDCG@3 = 0.7872
[Loop 32] NDCG@5 = 0.8003
[Loop 32] NDCG@10 = 0.8542

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 27.15%
(79.58%)		 26.47%
(78.15%)		 27.58%
(79.42%)		 30.83%
(101.83%)		 40.64%
(97.35%)		 28.68%
(83.93%)		 25.42%
(76.52%)		 58.18%
(79.13%)
複勝 58.52%
(84.36%)		 58.38%
(83.57%)		 58.32%
(85.07%)		 63.33%
(85.83%)		 71.69%
(89.86%)		 64.03%
(85.59%)		 55.50%
(83.46%)		 89.93%
(83.63%)
枠連 15.74%
(81.58%)		 15.54%
(86.39%)		 15.50%
(77.01%)		 22.22%
(85.86%)		 --
(--)		 17.43%
(75.24%)		 14.17%
(78.52%)		 31.18%
(77.70%)
馬連 12.42%
(81.24%)		 12.43%
(81.60%)		 12.03%
(81.34%)		 17.50%
(74.58%)		 24.20%
(71.96%)		 14.46%
(73.71%)		 10.67%
(84.58%)		 25.73%
(71.47%)
ワイド 27.24%
(87.49%)		 28.00%
(84.38%)		 26.18%
(90.66%)		 30.83%
(87.92%)		 51.14%
(86.76%)		 32.51%
(86.28%)		 23.32%
(87.96%)		 49.90%
(79.98%)
馬単 6.89%
(68.10%)		 6.51%
(65.68%)		 7.17%
(71.59%)		 8.33%
(54.42%)		 13.70%
(67.95%)		 7.91%
(66.51%)		 5.93%
(68.65%)		 25.73%
(69.28%)
三連複 6.14%
(63.50%)		 6.99%
(59.19%)		 5.29%
(69.79%)		 5.83%
(37.67%)		 18.72%
(80.96%)		 8.28%
(63.56%)		 4.29%
(61.90%)		 16.50%
(70.28%)
三連単 1.56%
(51.34%)		 1.89%
(63.42%)		 1.28%
(41.52%)		 0.83%
(16.00%)		 5.94%
(107.08%)		 2.10%
(51.98%)		 0.99%
(46.09%)		 16.50%
(65.68%)
総合 59.74%
(74.55%)		 59.68%
(75.06%)		 59.42%
(74.54%)		 65.00%
(67.61%)		 76.26%
(85.99%)		 64.52%
(73.35%)		 56.65%
(73.46%)		 90.27%
(70.31%)

[Loop 34] NDCG@1 = 0.7831
[Loop 34] NDCG@3 = 0.7877
[Loop 34] NDCG@5 = 0.8007
[Loop 34] NDCG@10 = 0.8543

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 27.44%
(81.67%)		 27.06%
(80.87%)		 27.64%
(81.29%)		 30.00%
(98.17%)		 39.27%
(97.26%)		 30.41%
(89.13%)		 25.38%
(77.78%)		 57.77%
(78.70%)
複勝 58.52%
(83.98%)		 58.26%
(83.36%)		 58.51%
(84.46%)		 62.50%
(86.25%)		 71.23%
(88.36%)		 64.52%
(85.90%)		 55.38%
(82.95%)		 89.87%
(83.23%)
枠連 15.93%
(85.15%)		 15.61%
(90.22%)		 15.76%
(80.50%)		 23.23%
(86.97%)		 --
(--)		 17.18%
(73.87%)		 14.50%
(83.51%)		 31.73%
(80.50%)
馬連 12.47%
(82.18%)		 12.37%
(80.16%)		 12.21%
(84.96%)		 17.50%
(72.33%)		 23.74%
(62.28%)		 14.22%
(72.61%)		 10.88%
(87.16%)		 25.85%
(72.31%)
ワイド 27.29%
(85.52%)		 28.42%
(86.76%)		 25.88%
(85.24%)		 30.83%
(72.00%)		 52.05%
(87.12%)		 31.89%
(84.39%)		 23.53%
(85.75%)		 49.46%
(77.62%)
馬単 6.83%
(77.45%)		 6.51%
(77.45%)		 7.05%
(79.26%)		 8.33%
(52.75%)		 13.24%
(59.50%)		 7.91%
(81.68%)		 5.89%
(77.66%)		 25.85%
(69.91%)
三連複 6.19%
(60.23%)		 6.93%
(54.40%)		 5.41%
(67.07%)		 6.67%
(48.42%)		 18.72%
(76.30%)		 8.28%
(58.42%)		 4.37%
(59.38%)		 16.35%
(68.23%)
三連単 1.36%
(42.09%)		 1.42%
(42.50%)		 1.40%
(44.74%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 5.02%
(57.95%)		 1.85%
(38.95%)		 0.87%
(41.71%)		 16.35%
(62.47%)
総合 59.80%
(74.64%)		 59.62%
(74.13%)		 59.72%
(75.92%)		 63.33%
(64.11%)		 75.34%
(75.54%)		 65.14%
(73.12%)		 56.61%
(74.49%)		 90.25%
(68.63%)
on 0 件のコメント:
Labels: ,

2026/08/12

学習継続

NumberOfLeaves: 223
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 100
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～400 = 0点, 401～1000は0.88乗に0～1000点

今朝もこれで10回スタート。

[Loop 2] NDCG@1 = 0.7834
[Loop 2] NDCG@3 = 0.7877
[Loop 2] NDCG@5 = 0.8005
[Loop 2] NDCG@10 = 0.8545

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 27.18%
(80.87%)		 27.00%
(80.32%)		 27.16%
(80.82%)		 30.00%
(89.17%)		 41.55%
(105.80%)		 27.69%
(78.26%)		 25.71%
(79.48%)		 57.83%
(79.14%)
複勝 58.99%
(84.77%)		 58.91%
(84.54%)		 58.63%
(84.99%)		 65.00%
(85.17%)		 73.06%
(92.05%)		 63.29%
(83.54%)		 56.28%
(84.53%)		 89.90%
(83.59%)
枠連 15.70%
(81.96%)		 15.12%
(83.51%)		 15.76%
(79.62%)		 23.23%
(97.07%)		 --
(--)		 17.06%
(76.95%)		 14.26%
(78.43%)		 31.38%
(79.43%)
馬連 12.42%
(82.45%)		 12.43%
(81.01%)		 11.97%
(83.89%)		 18.33%
(82.75%)		 23.74%
(71.96%)		 14.59%
(77.12%)		 10.67%
(85.17%)		 25.70%
(73.69%)
ワイド 26.89%
(86.77%)		 27.47%
(81.26%)		 26.00%
(93.56%)		 30.83%
(71.33%)		 49.32%
(82.51%)		 33.00%
(88.84%)		 22.83%
(86.47%)		 49.35%
(79.75%)
馬単 6.69%
(77.34%)		 6.57%
(77.15%)		 6.68%
(77.37%)		 8.33%
(79.58%)		 12.79%
(85.48%)		 7.79%
(80.25%)		 5.77%
(75.64%)		 25.70%
(70.56%)
三連複 6.34%
(72.15%)		 7.22%
(61.87%)		 5.35%
(81.93%)		 7.50%
(82.58%)		 19.18%
(77.67%)		 9.02%
(72.58%)		 4.29%
(71.50%)		 16.09%
(69.39%)
三連単 1.36%
(56.62%)		 1.54%
(57.65%)		 1.22%
(45.05%)		 0.83%
(200.75%)		 3.65%
(130.96%)		 2.10%
(75.60%)		 0.91%
(43.58%)		 16.09%
(64.38%)
総合 60.12%
(77.81%)		 60.04%
(75.75%)		 59.78%
(78.40%)		 65.83%
(98.58%)		 77.63%
(92.35%)		 63.66%
(79.14%)		 57.35%
(75.60%)		 90.22%
(69.96%)

[Loop 4] NDCG@1 = 0.7839
[Loop 4] NDCG@3 = 0.7875
[Loop 4] NDCG@5 = 0.8007
[Loop 4] NDCG@10 = 0.8545

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 27.38%
(81.43%)		 26.52%
(77.86%)		 27.95%
(83.15%)		 31.67%
(107.92%)		 39.73%
(96.21%)		 29.42%
(85.18%)		 25.59%
(78.84%)		 57.80%
(79.03%)
複勝 58.58%
(84.48%)		 58.02%
(83.37%)		 58.93%
(85.67%)		 61.67%
(83.67%)		 73.06%
(91.37%)		 63.78%
(85.38%)		 55.54%
(83.56%)		 89.75%
(82.63%)
枠連 15.61%
(79.13%)		 15.83%
(86.08%)		 14.93%
(72.17%)		 23.23%
(91.01%)		 --
(--)		 17.80%
(78.36%)		 13.89%
(74.37%)		 30.86%
(77.59%)
馬連 12.33%
(77.04%)		 12.61%
(76.77%)		 11.60%
(76.82%)		 18.33%
(83.83%)		 22.37%
(57.63%)		 15.20%
(82.48%)		 10.47%
(76.98%)		 25.30%
(70.35%)
ワイド 27.32%
(84.29%)		 28.24%
(82.00%)		 26.00%
(86.24%)		 32.50%
(89.83%)		 51.60%
(85.89%)		 33.13%
(85.30%)		 23.20%
(83.81%)		 49.15%
(78.63%)
馬単 6.83%
(72.89%)		 6.57%
(70.68%)		 6.99%
(76.24%)		 8.33%
(58.17%)		 12.33%
(53.52%)		 7.54%
(73.89%)		 6.10%
(74.31%)		 25.30%
(68.28%)
三連複 6.16%
(67.52%)		 7.40%
(74.52%)		 4.80%
(59.89%)		 7.50%
(73.58%)		 18.26%
(69.50%)		 8.28%
(59.46%)		 4.37%
(70.03%)		 16.18%
(71.79%)
三連単 1.24%
(42.60%)		 1.54%
(58.31%)		 1.03%
(29.59%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 2.74%
(27.81%)		 1.85%
(36.43%)		 0.91%
(46.00%)		 16.18%
(66.24%)
総合 59.86%
(73.60%)		 59.33%
(75.99%)		 60.15%
(71.22%)		 63.33%
(73.11%)		 77.63%
(68.85%)		 64.40%
(73.31%)		 56.74%
(73.49%)		 90.07%
(70.36%)

NumberOfLeaves: 223
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 100
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～400 = 0点, 401～1000は0.89乗に0～1000点

[Loop 2] NDCG@1 = 0.7842
[Loop 2] NDCG@3 = 0.7877
[Loop 2] NDCG@5 = 0.8008
[Loop 2] NDCG@10 = 0.8545

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 27.18%
(79.14%)		 27.06%
(80.30%)		 27.16%
(77.40%)		 29.17%
(86.75%)		 37.90%
(93.06%)		 28.55%
(80.14%)		 25.75%
(77.55%)		 57.60%
(77.81%)
複勝 58.58%
(84.33%)		 58.44%
(83.69%)		 58.32%
(84.87%)		 64.17%
(85.92%)		 71.69%
(88.72%)		 64.15%
(85.38%)		 55.54%
(83.59%)		 89.90%
(83.38%)
枠連 15.67%
(81.35%)		 15.61%
(85.52%)		 15.25%
(74.91%)		 23.23%
(124.34%)		 --
(--)		 17.55%
(79.33%)		 14.05%
(76.86%)		 31.21%
(80.69%)
馬連 12.42%
(80.76%)		 12.55%
(77.32%)		 11.91%
(83.13%)		 17.50%
(96.67%)		 23.74%
(73.70%)		 15.20%
(81.27%)		 10.47%
(81.23%)		 25.62%
(73.06%)
ワイド 27.09%
(84.72%)		 28.00%
(81.87%)		 25.82%
(87.10%)		 31.67%
(92.33%)		 50.68%
(85.62%)		 33.50%
(89.44%)		 22.83%
(83.07%)		 49.52%
(78.86%)
馬単 6.71%
(80.57%)		 6.39%
(74.82%)		 6.99%
(85.74%)		 7.50%
(90.75%)		 12.33%
(72.60%)		 7.91%
(84.19%)		 5.81%
(80.09%)		 25.62%
(70.80%)
三連複 6.05%
(61.91%)		 6.87%
(55.34%)		 5.10%
(67.80%)		 7.50%
(73.58%)		 20.09%
(85.89%)		 8.16%
(75.09%)		 4.08%
(55.35%)		 16.35%
(74.63%)
三連単 1.30%
(55.52%)		 1.42%
(55.49%)		 1.28%
(59.59%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 3.20%
(72.19%)		 2.10%
(73.46%)		 0.87%
(48.03%)		 16.35%
(69.51%)
総合 59.71%
(75.97%)		 59.68%
(74.06%)		 59.36%
(77.58%)		 65.00%
(80.33%)		 76.71%
(81.68%)		 64.52%
(81.04%)		 56.57%
(73.22%)		 90.22%
(72.84%)

NDCGの割に期待外れな検証結果。ここまでくるとダメかなぁっと思えるけど、

NumberOfLeaves: 223
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 100
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～400 = 0点, 401～1000は0.90乗に0～1000点

切り良く0.9乗までは試しておかなきゃとは思うので。

[Loop 3] NDCG@1 = 0.7837
[Loop 3] NDCG@3 = 0.7872
[Loop 3] NDCG@5 = 0.8007
[Loop 3] NDCG@10 = 0.8545

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 26.86%
(78.62%)		 26.41%
(77.75%)		 27.10%
(78.24%)		 30.00%
(95.92%)		 39.73%
(97.90%)		 28.92%
(85.28%)		 25.01%
(74.66%)		 57.63%
(78.64%)
複勝 58.78%
(84.84%)		 58.38%
(84.13%)		 58.81%
(85.35%)		 64.17%
(87.92%)		 70.78%
(87.21%)		 64.28%
(86.61%)		 55.87%
(84.04%)		 89.58%
(82.99%)
枠連 15.93%
(85.00%)		 16.18%
(93.66%)		 15.12%
(75.75%)		 25.25%
(108.69%)		 --
(--)		 17.06%
(76.74%)		 14.54%
(82.36%)		 31.64%
(80.04%)
馬連 12.53%
(83.55%)		 12.97%
(85.90%)		 11.54%
(80.39%)		 20.00%
(94.00%)		 25.11%
(76.07%)		 14.59%
(77.27%)		 10.71%
(86.32%)		 25.99%
(74.16%)
ワイド 27.38%
(88.16%)		 28.60%
(86.34%)		 25.70%
(90.50%)		 33.33%
(81.67%)		 51.14%
(84.20%)		 33.13%
(86.76%)		 23.32%
(88.98%)		 48.86%
(78.19%)
馬単 6.60%
(75.37%)		 6.69%
(76.14%)		 6.26%
(72.69%)		 10.00%
(101.25%)		 14.61%
(88.77%)		 7.42%
(76.30%)		 5.60%
(73.85%)		 25.99%
(71.60%)
三連複 6.34%
(70.85%)		 7.16%
(65.12%)		 5.59%
(79.65%)		 5.00%
(30.83%)		 17.81%
(71.37%)		 8.65%
(69.15%)		 4.53%
(71.38%)		 16.85%
(76.86%)
三連単 1.13%
(38.41%)		 1.18%
(35.81%)		 1.09%
(43.07%)		 0.83%
(11.00%)		 4.11%
(132.10%)		 1.73%
(38.37%)		 0.66%
(29.97%)		 16.85%
(69.90%)
総合 60.20%
(75.47%)		 59.86%
(75.23%)		 60.21%
(75.70%)		 65.00%
(75.69%)		 76.26%
(91.09%)		 64.65%
(74.56%)		 57.27%
(73.94%)		 89.87%
(73.33%)

さて、次のでピークが分かるかな?

NumberOfLeaves: 223
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 100
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～400 = 0点, 401～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

乗数1未満の適正値がどこかね。

[Loop 7] NDCG@1 = 0.7836
[Loop 7] NDCG@3 = 0.7872
[Loop 7] NDCG@5 = 0.8006
[Loop 7] NDCG@10 = 0.8543

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 27.61%
(81.50%)		 27.12%
(80.25%)		 27.70%
(80.34%)		 33.33%
(115.08%)		 38.81%
(92.56%)		 29.30%
(86.27%)		 26.04%
(78.92%)		 57.51%
(78.97%)
複勝 58.55%
(84.16%)		 57.73%
(82.39%)		 58.87%
(85.57%)		 65.83%
(89.75%)		 72.60%
(91.37%)		 63.78%
(84.77%)		 55.54%
(83.30%)		 90.07%
(82.97%)
枠連 16.09%
(83.13%)		 16.11%
(86.69%)		 15.44%
(77.81%)		 26.26%
(116.87%)		 --
(--)		 17.68%
(77.63%)		 14.54%
(79.69%)		 31.38%
(79.93%)
馬連 12.50%
(77.59%)		 12.55%
(75.54%)		 11.91%
(77.82%)		 20.00%
(103.17%)		 22.37%
(58.68%)		 14.71%
(75.08%)		 10.88%
(80.13%)		 25.56%
(73.64%)
ワイド 27.41%
(84.94%)		 28.00%
(82.28%)		 26.31%
(87.32%)		 34.17%
(89.75%)		 50.68%
(83.11%)		 33.25%
(87.68%)		 23.36%
(84.19%)		 49.12%
(76.70%)
馬単 6.77%
(70.36%)		 6.45%
(66.00%)		 6.93%
(71.96%)		 9.17%
(110.00%)		 11.87%
(52.97%)		 7.66%
(76.33%)		 6.02%
(69.95%)		 25.56%
(71.15%)
三連複 5.88%
(59.71%)		 6.69%
(51.97%)		 4.98%
(68.09%)		 6.67%
(53.83%)		 17.81%
(74.93%)		 8.65%
(74.22%)		 3.87%
(53.51%)		 16.32%
(65.00%)
三連単 1.22%
(36.03%)		 1.66%
(51.89%)		 0.85%
(22.38%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 3.65%
(39.68%)		 1.85%
(36.45%)		 0.78%
(35.55%)		 16.32%
(59.98%)
総合 59.88%
(72.03%)		 59.21%
(71.82%)		 60.15%
(71.37%)		 65.83%
(84.09%)		 76.71%
(70.47%)		 64.28%
(74.80%)		 56.90%
(70.65%)		 90.36%
(67.28%)

NumberOfLeaves: 223
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 100
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～400 = 0点, 401～1000は0.93乗に0～1000点

[Loop 3] NDCG@1 = 0.7837
[Loop 3] NDCG@3 = 0.7877
[Loop 3] NDCG@5 = 0.8008
[Loop 3] NDCG@10 = 0.8543

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 27.32%
(79.94%)		 26.41%
(78.00%)		 27.89%
(79.74%)		 32.50%
(109.92%)		 40.18%
(95.48%)		 28.55%
(83.86%)		 25.75%
(77.23%)		 57.63%
(78.09%)
複勝 58.61%
(83.92%)		 57.73%
(82.29%)		 59.17%
(85.36%)		 63.33%
(87.00%)		 71.69%
(90.18%)		 64.03%
(85.35%)		 55.62%
(82.87%)		 89.55%
(83.05%)
枠連 15.51%
(80.30%)		 15.40%
(85.90%)		 15.12%
(74.66%)		 23.23%
(90.51%)		 --
(--)		 16.69%
(68.34%)		 14.13%
(79.20%)		 31.34%
(78.82%)
馬連 12.33%
(77.58%)		 12.37%
(76.23%)		 11.91%
(79.36%)		 17.50%
(72.25%)		 23.74%
(64.06%)		 13.84%
(66.54%)		 10.80%
(82.48%)		 25.76%
(74.01%)
ワイド 26.77%
(85.33%)		 27.71%
(81.14%)		 25.46%
(89.54%)		 31.67%
(86.42%)		 50.68%
(84.61%)		 31.52%
(82.46%)		 23.03%
(86.35%)		 49.87%
(79.09%)
馬単 6.66%
(75.05%)		 6.51%
(72.80%)		 6.74%
(79.25%)		 7.50%
(49.17%)		 13.24%
(67.53%)		 6.80%
(65.35%)		 6.02%
(78.96%)		 25.76%
(71.38%)
三連複 6.08%
(73.29%)		 6.93%
(59.95%)		 5.22%
(87.82%)		 5.83%
(61.67%)		 17.81%
(74.34%)		 8.03%
(67.55%)		 4.37%
(75.11%)		 16.56%
(70.34%)
三連単 1.19%
(38.07%)		 1.48%
(43.85%)		 0.97%
(34.91%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 2.74%
(29.50%)		 1.73%
(34.88%)		 0.87%
(39.91%)		 16.56%
(64.51%)
総合 59.77%
(74.10%)		 58.97%
(72.24%)		 60.21%
(76.34%)		 65.00%
(69.15%)		 76.71%
(72.24%)		 64.52%
(69.29%)		 56.65%
(75.26%)		 89.90%
(70.05%)

[Loop 8] NDCG@1 = 0.7838
[Loop 8] NDCG@3 = 0.7871
[Loop 8] NDCG@5 = 0.8006
[Loop 8] NDCG@10 = 0.8545

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 27.67%
(84.14%)		 27.29%
(82.21%)		 27.76%
(84.42%)		 31.67%
(107.33%)		 42.01%
(107.12%)		 29.91%
(89.94%)		 25.63%
(80.13%)		 57.51%
(77.69%)
複勝 59.10%
(85.45%)		 58.67%
(84.46%)		 58.99%
(85.98%)		 66.67%
(92.08%)		 74.89%
(95.62%)		 65.02%
(87.55%)		 55.71%
(83.84%)		 89.35%
(83.04%)
枠連 15.93%
(85.63%)		 16.32%
(95.73%)		 15.06%
(73.53%)		 24.24%
(134.44%)		 --
(--)		 17.68%
(81.21%)		 14.34%
(81.67%)		 31.80%
(81.34%)
馬連 12.47%
(81.52%)		 12.85%
(86.66%)		 11.60%
(73.92%)		 19.17%
(113.42%)		 23.29%
(64.47%)		 14.59%
(76.96%)		 10.80%
(84.58%)		 26.05%
(75.52%)
ワイド 27.21%
(86.86%)		 28.24%
(85.06%)		 25.70%
(88.57%)		 33.33%
(88.83%)		 50.68%
(84.20%)		 32.51%
(86.67%)		 23.32%
(87.16%)		 49.52%
(79.15%)
馬単 6.60%
(74.90%)		 6.51%
(74.88%)		 6.50%
(70.77%)		 9.17%
(131.83%)		 12.79%
(56.16%)		 7.66%
(80.19%)		 5.69%
(74.83%)		 26.05%
(73.10%)
三連複 6.11%
(67.52%)		 7.28%
(69.59%)		 4.86%
(66.39%)		 6.67%
(53.83%)		 18.72%
(76.16%)		 8.28%
(69.74%)		 4.24%
(66.00%)		 16.79%
(71.06%)
三連単 1.16%
(43.43%)		 1.48%
(61.82%)		 0.91%
(27.73%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 3.65%
(40.78%)		 1.24%
(23.29%)		 0.91%
(50.38%)		 16.79%
(66.26%)
総合 60.23%
(76.05%)		 59.92%
(79.72%)		 60.02%
(71.40%)		 67.50%
(89.23%)		 78.54%
(74.93%)		 65.64%
(74.44%)		 56.78%
(76.07%)		 89.67%
(71.40%)

やれやれ、回収率って突発的な穴を当ててのものもあるのであまりに気しないでいます。それよりもやはり的中率をまず上げたい。特に、全体の足を引っ張っているのが13頭以上のレースなんだけど、これってJRA開催レースの7割とかで、ここで的中率が上がらないと実用的には辛いと思ってます。いや、1点で単勝が4Rに1回、複勝は半分以上、ただ、ワイドがまだ4Rに1回に届いてない状態。

努力が足りないかなぁ^^;

on 0 件のコメント:
Labels: ,
登録: 投稿 (Atom)