続ランキング学習

続きです。

NumberOfLeaves: 319
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 150
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
FeatureFraction: 0.75
L2Regularization: 1.250
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

これ10回予定通りにやりました。

[Loop 8] NDCG@1 = 0.7665
[Loop 8] NDCG@3 = 0.7724
[Loop 8] NDCG@5 = 0.7887
[Loop 8] NDCG@10 = 0.8494

2,610R	1点	芝(1,278R)	ダート(1,243R)	障害(89R)	8頭以下(157R)	9～12頭(665R)	13頭以上(1,788R)	多点
単勝	24.94% (74.44%)	24.65% (77.78%)	25.42% (72.27%)	22.47% (56.74%)	32.48% (70.38%)	27.07% (69.17%)	23.49% (76.75%)	55.56% (76.83%)
複勝	55.44% (78.48%)	53.68% (77.10%)	56.88% (79.77%)	60.67% (80.00%)	64.97% (88.98%)	59.70% (76.62%)	53.02% (78.24%)	89.69% (81.35%)
枠連	14.01% (75.67%)	13.05% (83.13%)	14.48% (66.58%)	20.25% (108.86%)	-- (--)	13.23% (58.69%)	13.48% (77.54%)	30.54% (77.47%)
馬連	10.19% (65.52%)	9.62% (73.24%)	10.54% (56.53%)	13.48% (80.22%)	22.29% (86.18%)	10.68% (57.74%)	8.95% (66.60%)	23.64% (75.49%)
ワイド	24.94% (75.46%)	24.33% (77.77%)	25.66% (73.54%)	23.60% (68.99%)	41.40% (76.62%)	26.62% (70.15%)	22.87% (77.33%)	46.51% (76.86%)
馬単	5.48% (52.07%)	4.62% (48.65%)	6.36% (55.38%)	5.62% (54.72%)	10.83% (63.50%)	6.02% (53.88%)	4.81% (50.39%)	23.64% (73.19%)
三連複	7.20% (113.02%)	6.65% (133.61%)	7.88% (92.81%)	5.62% (99.78%)	14.01% (100.83%)	7.82% (72.72%)	6.38% (129.08%)	16.48% (70.31%)
三連単	1.72% (96.39%)	1.25% (51.86%)	2.25% (146.89%)	1.12% (30.67%)	2.55% (158.34%)	2.26% (56.44%)	1.45% (105.82%)	16.48% (68.26%)
総合	57.36% (78.92%)	56.18% (77.79%)	58.33% (80.56%)	60.67% (71.98%)	68.15% (92.12%)	60.45% (64.43%)	55.26% (82.72%)	89.89% (71.83%)

[Loop 10] NDCG@1 = 0.7661
[Loop 10] NDCG@3 = 0.7726
[Loop 10] NDCG@5 = 0.7887
[Loop 10] NDCG@10 = 0.8493

2,610R	1点	芝(1,278R)	ダート(1,243R)	障害(89R)	8頭以下(157R)	9～12頭(665R)	13頭以上(1,788R)	多点
単勝	24.75% (71.59%)	24.41% (75.14%)	25.02% (68.35%)	25.84% (65.84%)	33.12% (70.38%)	28.12% (74.38%)	22.76% (70.66%)	55.56% (75.80%)
複勝	54.98% (77.95%)	52.74% (77.03%)	56.72% (78.36%)	62.92% (85.39%)	64.33% (93.31%)	60.30% (78.24%)	52.18% (76.49%)	89.66% (80.71%)
枠連	13.97% (79.28%)	12.78% (85.28%)	14.73% (71.96%)	18.99% (105.82%)	-- (--)	12.63% (54.38%)	13.65% (83.88%)	30.45% (78.48%)
馬連	10.11% (66.30%)	9.00% (70.19%)	11.10% (61.61%)	12.36% (75.96%)	20.38% (76.75%)	10.23% (53.47%)	9.17% (70.15%)	23.64% (78.44%)
ワイド	24.52% (74.88%)	22.54% (69.95%)	26.79% (80.83%)	21.35% (62.58%)	40.76% (75.67%)	26.32% (69.32%)	22.43% (76.88%)	46.09% (76.51%)
馬単	5.67% (54.83%)	5.01% (60.81%)	6.36% (49.12%)	5.62% (48.54%)	10.83% (62.80%)	6.32% (56.00%)	4.98% (53.69%)	23.64% (75.88%)
三連複	6.93% (105.48%)	6.10% (124.95%)	7.96% (91.03%)	4.49% (27.64%)	11.46% (51.46%)	7.67% (66.00%)	6.26% (124.90%)	16.32% (71.85%)
三連単	1.49% (68.42%)	0.94% (69.19%)	2.09% (70.34%)	1.12% (30.67%)	1.91% (23.76%)	1.65% (41.28%)	1.40% (82.44%)	16.32% (70.12%)
総合	56.97% (74.78%)	55.24% (78.95%)	58.33% (71.45%)	62.92% (62.19%)	66.88% (64.88%)	60.90% (61.63%)	54.64% (79.89%)	89.89% (73.33%)

これじゃ1.0が最強なのかな?

L2Regularization追加で

既に走破タイム学習や相対タイム学習に導入済みだったけど、ランキング学習のみ入れないのは不自然だし、Geminiが入れるべきだというので実装してみた。

NumberOfLeaves: 319
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 150
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
FeatureFraction: 0.75
L2Regularization: 1.000
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

これ10回試すと

[Loop 9] NDCG@1 = 0.7667
[Loop 9] NDCG@3 = 0.7730
[Loop 9] NDCG@5 = 0.7886
[Loop 9] NDCG@10 = 0.8494

2,610R	1点	芝(1,278R)	ダート(1,243R)	障害(89R)	8頭以下(157R)	9～12頭(665R)	13頭以上(1,788R)	多点
単勝	25.21% (73.46%)	24.96% (75.63%)	25.66% (72.43%)	22.47% (56.74%)	32.48% (68.15%)	27.82% (72.68%)	23.60% (74.22%)	55.48% (75.63%)
複勝	54.90% (77.16%)	52.90% (75.47%)	56.72% (78.90%)	58.43% (77.19%)	63.06% (85.61%)	59.40% (75.92%)	52.52% (76.88%)	89.62% (80.48%)
枠連	14.48% (81.73%)	13.51% (89.50%)	15.16% (74.27%)	17.72% (86.20%)	-- (--)	14.44% (66.24%)	13.65% (82.69%)	30.54% (78.29%)
馬連	10.54% (68.56%)	9.70% (74.37%)	11.26% (62.55%)	12.36% (68.99%)	21.66% (80.00%)	11.73% (64.74%)	9.12% (68.97%)	23.56% (72.53%)
ワイド	24.52% (74.24%)	23.08% (71.63%)	26.07% (76.54%)	23.60% (79.66%)	39.49% (69.43%)	27.82% (73.70%)	21.98% (74.87%)	46.28% (75.56%)
馬単	6.21% (62.91%)	5.56% (64.22%)	6.92% (62.17%)	5.62% (54.49%)	12.74% (72.10%)	7.37% (70.05%)	5.20% (59.45%)	23.56% (70.08%)
三連複	6.90% (105.38%)	6.49% (129.29%)	7.48% (86.37%)	4.49% (27.64%)	12.74% (72.10%)	7.67% (60.32%)	6.10% (125.07%)	16.82% (74.24%)
三連単	2.03% (135.03%)	1.56% (102.03%)	2.57% (176.43%)	1.12% (30.67%)	3.18% (93.82%)	2.56% (126.23%)	1.73% (141.92%)	16.82% (70.31%)
総合	56.90% (84.85%)	55.48% (85.19%)	58.25% (86.28%)	58.43% (59.83%)	66.24% (77.32%)	60.15% (76.23%)	54.87% (88.01%)	89.81% (72.44%)

なんか久しぶりに単勝が25%超えてきた。実はこの前にL2=0.5でも10回試したが、その時は

[Loop 3] NDCG@1 = 0.7667
[Loop 3] NDCG@3 = 0.7733
[Loop 3] NDCG@5 = 0.7887
[Loop 3] NDCG@10 = 0.8495

数値的には上だったのに

2,610R	1点	芝(1,278R)	ダート(1,243R)	障害(89R)	8頭以下(157R)	9～12頭(665R)	13頭以上(1,788R)	多点
単勝	24.29% (71.26%)	23.79% (71.73%)	24.86% (71.43%)	23.60% (62.02%)	33.12% (69.24%)	27.82% (72.86%)	22.20% (70.84%)	55.36% (76.38%)
複勝	54.90% (78.10%)	51.72% (74.89%)	57.76% (81.18%)	60.67% (81.01%)	64.33% (91.72%)	59.55% (76.35%)	52.35% (77.55%)	89.92% (81.82%)
枠連	14.01% (78.64%)	13.05% (90.02%)	14.65% (67.43%)	17.72% (89.62%)	-- (--)	13.83% (62.51%)	13.26% (80.02%)	29.90% (75.53%)
馬連	10.46% (68.40%)	9.94% (79.83%)	10.94% (57.06%)	11.24% (62.58%)	22.29% (83.25%)	11.28% (60.32%)	9.12% (70.10%)	24.02% (79.29%)
ワイド	24.41% (73.16%)	23.24% (74.00%)	25.82% (73.11%)	21.35% (61.80%)	42.04% (79.17%)	27.52% (72.05%)	21.70% (73.05%)	47.05% (78.64%)
馬単	5.48% (52.23%)	4.85% (54.19%)	6.19% (51.23%)	4.49% (37.98%)	12.10% (71.21%)	6.92% (58.57%)	4.36% (48.20%)	24.02% (76.78%)
三連複	7.16% (110.92%)	6.73% (136.72%)	7.80% (90.35%)	4.49% (27.64%)	14.65% (95.29%)	7.67% (65.58%)	6.32% (129.15%)	16.74% (72.09%)
三連単	1.69% (69.59%)	1.25% (59.54%)	2.17% (82.70%)	1.12% (30.67%)	2.55% (111.21%)	1.95% (48.17%)	1.51% (73.90%)	16.74% (70.00%)
総合	56.86% (75.24%)	54.15% (79.93%)	59.37% (71.84%)	60.67% (56.20%)	66.88% (85.87%)	60.15% (64.55%)	54.75% (77.85%)	90.08% (73.53%)

実検証では低かった。って事で、L2=1.5を40回スタートして寝ます(笑)

追記 2026.10.27 5:10

最適はNDCG@1とNDCG@10がトップの

[Loop 21] NDCG@1 = 0.7678
[Loop 21] NDCG@3 = 0.7724
[Loop 21] NDCG@5 = 0.7887
[Loop 21] NDCG@10 = 0.8495

2,610R	1点	芝(1,278R)	ダート(1,243R)	障害(89R)	8頭以下(157R)	9～12頭(665R)	13頭以上(1,788R)	多点
単勝	25.13% (74.70%)	24.33% (74.86%)	25.99% (75.24%)	24.72% (64.83%)	34.39% (74.01%)	27.97% (73.22%)	23.27% (75.31%)	56.13% (77.27%)
複勝	55.75% (79.40%)	53.05% (77.36%)	58.00% (81.20%)	62.92% (83.60%)	66.24% (95.92%)	59.70% (76.48%)	53.36% (79.03%)	90.04% (81.93%)
枠連	14.35% (79.71%)	13.24% (85.97%)	14.90% (71.27%)	21.52% (119.62%)	-- (--)	13.68% (58.84%)	13.76% (82.79%)	31.26% (81.64%)
馬連	10.38% (65.49%)	9.62% (71.72%)	10.86% (57.35%)	14.61% (89.89%)	22.29% (84.97%)	11.43% (58.72%)	8.95% (66.30%)	24.48% (78.60%)
ワイド	24.75% (73.84%)	23.40% (71.42%)	26.23% (75.95%)	23.60% (79.21%)	43.95% (84.90%)	26.92% (71.35%)	22.26% (73.80%)	46.97% (77.46%)
馬単	5.52% (53.33%)	4.93% (54.77%)	5.95% (48.99%)	7.87% (93.48%)	12.10% (80.13%)	6.92% (58.39%)	4.42% (49.10%)	24.48% (75.24%)
三連複	7.32% (110.67%)	6.89% (132.57%)	7.88% (88.94%)	5.62% (99.78%)	14.01% (65.22%)	8.42% (81.08%)	6.32% (125.67%)	16.90% (73.74%)
三連単	1.49% (80.16%)	1.10% (39.16%)	1.93% (125.85%)	1.12% (30.67%)	1.91% (24.14%)	2.26% (60.03%)	1.17% (92.56%)	16.90% (71.26%)
総合	57.59% (77.13%)	55.40% (75.79%)	59.45% (78.14%)	62.92% (82.11%)	68.79% (72.76%)	60.15% (67.27%)	55.65% (80.57%)	90.27% (74.36%)

NDCG@3がトップの

[Loop 32] NDCG@1 = 0.7658
[Loop 32] NDCG@3 = 0.7728
[Loop 32] NDCG@5 = 0.7886
[Loop 32] NDCG@10 = 0.8492

2,610R	1点	芝(1,278R)	ダート(1,243R)	障害(89R)	8頭以下(157R)	9～12頭(665R)	13頭以上(1,788R)	多点
単勝	24.52% (73.82%)	24.41% (77.75%)	24.86% (71.27%)	21.35% (53.03%)	33.76% (72.10%)	27.97% (74.93%)	22.43% (73.56%)	55.52% (75.90%)
複勝	55.02% (78.76%)	52.74% (77.43%)	56.88% (79.93%)	61.80% (81.57%)	64.97% (93.44%)	60.45% (78.45%)	52.13% (77.59%)	89.73% (81.50%)
枠連	14.31% (80.86%)	13.14% (90.30%)	14.99% (70.04%)	20.25% (112.41%)	-- (--)	13.38% (65.20%)	13.81% (81.93%)	30.75% (77.72%)
馬連	10.42% (67.42%)	9.39% (75.13%)	11.18% (58.05%)	14.61% (87.53%)	20.38% (78.41%)	11.28% (65.50%)	9.23% (67.16%)	24.02% (78.20%)
ワイド	24.18% (72.66%)	22.69% (71.90%)	25.66% (73.55%)	24.72% (71.01%)	40.13% (76.11%)	26.92% (71.65%)	21.76% (72.72%)	46.44% (77.01%)
馬単	5.59% (59.30%)	4.93% (58.90%)	6.28% (60.03%)	5.62% (54.72%)	12.10% (73.76%)	6.17% (62.30%)	4.81% (56.91%)	24.02% (75.45%)
三連複	7.09% (107.79%)	6.73% (129.70%)	7.56% (85.84%)	5.62% (99.78%)	14.65% (72.74%)	7.67% (69.56%)	6.21% (125.09%)	16.13% (69.43%)
三連単	1.80% (122.26%)	1.64% (97.79%)	2.01% (153.97%)	1.12% (30.67%)	3.18% (51.59%)	2.41% (111.47%)	1.45% (132.48%)	16.13% (67.15%)
総合	57.13% (82.88%)	55.24% (84.76%)	58.73% (81.66%)	61.80% (73.29%)	67.52% (74.02%)	61.20% (74.89%)	54.70% (85.93%)	89.85% (71.63%)

NDCG@5がトップの

[Loop 6] NDCG@1 = 0.7667
[Loop 6] NDCG@3 = 0.7727
[Loop 6] NDCG@5 = 0.7888
[Loop 6] NDCG@10 = 0.8494

2,610R	1点	芝(1,278R)	ダート(1,243R)	障害(89R)	8頭以下(157R)	9～12頭(665R)	13頭以上(1,788R)	多点
単勝	24.52% (71.32%)	23.63% (72.05%)	25.50% (71.24%)	23.60% (61.91%)	31.21% (64.20%)	26.62% (67.94%)	23.15% (73.20%)	54.90% (75.13%)
複勝	55.25% (77.85%)	52.50% (75.38%)	57.36% (79.61%)	65.17% (88.88%)	61.15% (81.21%)	60.15% (77.16%)	52.91% (77.82%)	89.62% (80.75%)
枠連	14.18% (80.11%)	13.42% (91.68%)	14.56% (67.96%)	18.99% (102.41%)	-- (--)	12.93% (58.48%)	13.81% (83.45%)	30.32% (77.89%)
馬連	10.38% (69.96%)	9.86% (78.51%)	10.86% (61.68%)	11.24% (62.81%)	22.29% (84.46%)	10.38% (55.71%)	9.34% (73.98%)	23.56% (74.22%)
ワイド	24.83% (76.28%)	23.47% (74.26%)	26.39% (79.07%)	22.47% (66.40%)	40.13% (70.76%)	27.22% (72.18%)	22.60% (78.29%)	46.25% (74.94%)
馬単	5.75% (59.02%)	5.16% (63.93%)	6.36% (54.29%)	5.62% (54.72%)	12.74% (74.90%)	6.02% (50.05%)	5.03% (60.97%)	23.56% (71.87%)
三連複	6.74% (103.61%)	6.34% (128.04%)	7.24% (83.50%)	5.62% (33.71%)	12.10% (53.63%)	7.37% (59.62%)	6.04% (124.36%)	16.70% (75.62%)
三連単	1.65% (75.19%)	1.33% (89.41%)	2.01% (63.75%)	1.12% (30.67%)	2.55% (34.33%)	1.95% (45.91%)	1.45% (89.66%)	16.70% (73.78%)
総合	57.20% (76.62%)	55.01% (84.01%)	58.89% (70.15%)	65.17% (62.12%)	64.33% (66.21%)	60.90% (60.88%)	55.20% (82.72%)	89.69% (74.52%)

つまり、どれもL2=1.0を超えない^^; 今晩はL2=1.25あたりを攻めてみるかな。

更に

NumberOfLeaves: 511
NumberOfIterations: 4000
LearningRate: 0.005
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 255
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 150
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
FeatureFraction: 0.75
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

これ20回スタートして寝た。最適は

[Loop 9] NDCG@1 = 0.7667
[Loop 9] NDCG@3 = 0.7735
[Loop 9] NDCG@5 = 0.7895
[Loop 9] NDCG@10 = 0.8498

2,610R	1点	芝(1,278R)	ダート(1,243R)	障害(89R)	8頭以下(157R)	9～12頭(665R)	13頭以上(1,788R)	多点
単勝	24.56% (73.47%)	24.49% (76.02%)	24.94% (72.60%)	20.22% (49.10%)	32.48% (65.54%)	26.92% (68.96%)	22.99% (75.84%)	55.67% (76.39%)
複勝	55.13% (78.55%)	53.05% (77.52%)	56.80% (79.32%)	61.80% (82.47%)	61.15% (77.13%)	60.15% (77.85%)	52.74% (78.93%)	89.73% (81.68%)
枠連	13.76% (73.34%)	12.68% (83.58%)	14.39% (61.96%)	18.99% (102.41%)	-- (--)	13.23% (56.08%)	13.14% (75.45%)	30.20% (75.27%)
馬連	10.15% (63.67%)	9.31% (70.53%)	10.78% (55.27%)	13.48% (82.36%)	21.66% (81.27%)	10.68% (54.83%)	8.95% (65.41%)	23.87% (76.31%)
ワイド	24.44% (73.67%)	23.08% (72.22%)	25.91% (75.54%)	23.60% (68.31%)	42.04% (75.22%)	27.07% (72.27%)	21.92% (74.05%)	47.20% (78.67%)
馬単	5.59% (53.77%)	4.85% (51.88%)	6.44% (56.43%)	4.49% (43.93%)	12.10% (68.47%)	6.62% (59.23%)	4.64% (50.45%)	23.87% (73.75%)
三連複	6.97% (108.15%)	6.73% (136.04%)	7.40% (85.23%)	4.49% (27.64%)	14.01% (105.48%)	7.22% (61.22%)	6.26% (125.83%)	17.43% (81.10%)
三連単	1.69% (103.69%)	1.41% (72.53%)	2.01% (140.97%)	1.12% (30.67%)	3.18% (176.50%)	1.80% (54.14%)	1.51% (115.73%)	17.43% (79.55%)
総合	57.24% (78.60%)	55.71% (79.97%)	58.49% (78.52%)	61.80% (60.27%)	64.97% (92.80%)	60.90% (63.07%)	55.20% (82.71%)	89.96% (78.42%)

後はloop2とloop14辺りが続いた感じかな。流石にこの設定ではモデルも44.5MBと大きくなった。モデルが大きくなった割にはそこまで改善されてないのは残念。まあ、これはこれでサンプルとしてありだが、採用はしないかな。

今日仕事から戻ったらL2追加してるのでそれを試します。

ここまでのパラメーター調査を元に

NumberOfLeaves: 319
NumberOfIterations: 4000
LearningRate: 0.005
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 150
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
FeatureFraction: 0.75
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

これを10回やるのに2時間41分程度。

繰り返し (Loop)	NDCG@1	NDCG@3	NDCG@5	NDCG@10	学習時間
1回目	0.7654	0.7729	0.7888	0.8495	14分38秒
2回目 ★	0.7671	0.7735	0.7894	0.8497	14分29秒
3回目	0.7659	0.7727	0.7892	0.8495	14分16秒
4回目	0.7662	0.7726	0.7886	0.8494	13分33秒
5回目 ★	0.7664	0.7734	0.7890	0.8498	14分03秒
6回目	0.7648	0.7726	0.7889	0.8493	14分17秒
7回目	0.7652	0.7726	0.7888	0.8494	14分51秒
8回目	0.7660	0.7725	0.7887	0.8494	14分53秒
9回目	0.7656	0.7726	0.7886	0.8495	14分25秒
10回目	0.7657	0.7727	0.7887	0.8495	13分39秒

最適は

[Loop 2] NDCG@1 = 0.7671
[Loop 2] NDCG@3 = 0.7735
[Loop 2] NDCG@5 = 0.7894
[Loop 2] NDCG@10 = 0.8497

2,610R	1点	芝(1,278R)	ダート(1,243R)	障害(89R)	8頭以下(157R)	9～12頭(665R)	13頭以上(1,788R)	多点
単勝	24.56% (73.00%)	24.26% (75.58%)	25.18% (72.07%)	20.22% (49.10%)	34.39% (71.97%)	27.07% (70.89%)	22.76% (73.88%)	55.56% (75.75%)
複勝	55.17% (78.20%)	52.74% (76.20%)	57.36% (80.31%)	59.55% (77.64%)	64.97% (87.58%)	58.80% (75.37%)	52.96% (78.43%)	89.73% (81.43%)
枠連	13.97% (77.45%)	13.05% (84.74%)	14.65% (70.49%)	16.46% (81.01%)	-- (--)	13.08% (55.31%)	13.48% (81.14%)	30.58% (77.43%)
馬連	10.04% (64.10%)	9.31% (70.02%)	10.78% (58.64%)	10.11% (55.28%)	21.02% (79.55%)	10.83% (54.89%)	8.78% (66.16%)	24.06% (79.50%)
ワイド	24.41% (74.13%)	23.24% (72.80%)	25.82% (75.42%)	21.35% (75.06%)	40.76% (75.67%)	26.77% (71.47%)	22.09% (74.98%)	46.93% (78.51%)
馬単	5.59% (49.83%)	5.01% (53.15%)	6.36% (47.62%)	3.37% (33.03%)	12.74% (72.80%)	6.77% (58.12%)	4.53% (44.73%)	24.06% (76.44%)
三連複	7.16% (112.95%)	6.65% (135.86%)	7.80% (90.33%)	5.62% (99.78%)	13.38% (88.09%)	8.42% (87.19%)	6.15% (124.71%)	16.70% (73.04%)
三連単	1.61% (58.63%)	1.02% (46.88%)	2.25% (72.72%)	1.12% (30.67%)	1.91% (106.43%)	2.26% (61.49%)	1.34% (53.37%)	16.70% (71.53%)
総合	57.20% (73.49%)	55.40% (76.75%)	58.89% (70.95%)	59.55% (62.44%)	68.15% (83.16%)	59.40% (66.84%)	55.43% (74.67%)	89.89% (74.37%)

少しだけ改善はしてるけど^^; 次点は

[Loop 5] NDCG@1 = 0.7664
[Loop 5] NDCG@3 = 0.7734
[Loop 5] NDCG@5 = 0.7890
[Loop 5] NDCG@10 = 0.8498

2,610R	1点	芝(1,278R)	ダート(1,243R)	障害(89R)	8頭以下(157R)	9～12頭(665R)	13頭以上(1,788R)	多点
単勝	24.83% (72.61%)	24.41% (72.68%)	25.42% (73.66%)	22.47% (56.74%)	33.76% (70.64%)	27.37% (70.72%)	23.10% (73.48%)	55.33% (75.35%)
複勝	55.48% (78.80%)	53.05% (76.58%)	57.52% (80.76%)	61.80% (83.26%)	64.33% (86.56%)	59.40% (75.98%)	53.24% (79.16%)	89.23% (80.76%)
枠連	13.80% (76.32%)	12.68% (85.08%)	14.39% (66.16%)	20.25% (107.47%)	-- (--)	13.38% (57.65%)	13.14% (78.78%)	30.32% (76.02%)
馬連	10.15% (66.19%)	9.47% (73.55%)	10.62% (57.09%)	13.48% (87.53%)	20.38% (78.47%)	10.98% (57.55%)	8.95% (68.32%)	23.87% (78.84%)
ワイド	24.06% (71.93%)	22.77% (69.90%)	25.50% (74.25%)	22.47% (68.76%)	40.13% (74.71%)	26.77% (70.26%)	21.64% (72.31%)	46.78% (77.98%)
馬単	5.67% (58.59%)	5.16% (63.82%)	6.19% (51.88%)	5.62% (77.08%)	12.10% (74.46%)	6.32% (57.56%)	4.87% (57.57%)	23.87% (76.06%)
三連複	7.05% (108.39%)	6.57% (133.58%)	7.72% (88.28%)	4.49% (27.64%)	14.01% (105.48%)	7.97% (65.13%)	6.10% (124.74%)	16.67% (71.57%)
三連単	1.76% (115.96%)	1.49% (106.87%)	2.09% (131.42%)	1.12% (30.67%)	3.18% (176.50%)	1.95% (50.29%)	1.57% (135.07%)	16.67% (67.83%)
総合	57.20% (81.16%)	55.16% (85.26%)	58.97% (78.01%)	61.80% (66.82%)	67.52% (95.26%)	60.00% (63.14%)	55.26% (86.18%)	89.43% (72.15%)

なるほど! 次点ながら流石にNDCG@10が最適なモデルなので三連系が抜群に良い感じだ。

MaximumBinCountPerFeatureの調査

MaximumBinCountPerFeature	NDCG@1	NDCG@3	NDCG@5	NDCG@10	所要時間
31	0.7651	0.7726	0.7886	0.8494	00:08:42
47	0.7652	0.7721	0.7885	0.8492	00:08:59
63	0.7659	0.7723	0.7886	0.8494	00:08:21
79	0.7653	0.7725	0.7884	0.8494	00:08:34
95	0.7646	0.7720	0.7885	0.8493	00:08:24
111	0.7656	0.7729	0.7888	0.8495	00:08:48
127	0.7664	0.7732	0.7890	0.8496	00:09:37

精度アップが微量な割に学習時間が伸びてるので元のままでも良いのではってGeminiは言うが、少しでも精度アップしたいからね。

第87回菊花賞

相変わらず、やる事がいっぱいで予想してる時間も限られてます。昨夜申請したVersion 3.8.0にちょっとしたバグがあり、それも修正しなきゃならなかったり、ランキング学習もはかどらなくて苦戦中。

今回はリリースしたばかりの機能を利用して

この馬番別の着度数を参考に予想してみた^^ 公開したVersion 3.8.0ではこの様に表示されませんm(__)m これはVersion 3.8.1なのでしっかりと表示出来てます。 ラッキー馬番は5番ですね(笑) その相手は最内。最後の1頭はちょっと悩んだんですが、これ、もしかするとシートゥサミットかも? 既に投票済みだし変えれないか^^;

今回追加したこの馬番別の為に表示が若干引っかかる感じになったので、その為の修正もしてます。

追記 2026.10.25 14:38

三連複 1-5-15を100円追加しておいた。

MinimumExampleCountPerLeavesの調査

ランキング学習でのパラメーター調査を行いました。

MinExampleCount	100	110	120	130	140	150	160	170	180	190	200
NDCG@1	0.7658	0.7663	0.7648	0.7660	0.7653	0.7677	0.7661	0.7658	0.7668	0.7656	0.7651
NDCG@3	0.7724	0.7732	0.7723	0.7727	0.7724	0.7732	0.7728	0.7731	0.7728	0.7728	0.7728
NDCG@5	0.7884	0.7889	0.7883	0.7888	0.7888	0.7891	0.7885	0.7886	0.7887	0.7884	0.7885
NDCG@10	0.8492	0.8495	0.8491	0.8496	0.8493	0.8499	0.8495	0.8495	0.8496	0.8494	0.8494

結果としては150が狙い目。なので、これを基に再度MaximumBinCountPerFeatureを調べなおします。

馬番別着度数

さらだ Version 3.8.0の変更申請を昨晩しました。今回標準モードの着度数タグに馬番別を追加しました。例えば、今日の京都1Rですが、ダート1800m 8頭立て。

これ見ても下の

この部分に金額が表示されてない。バグかな? それは後で調べますが、単にこれってコースだけではなく競争条件でも絞ってるので過去に無いんだと思います。

他の記事で書いてますが今のランキング・モデルは当然頭数が少ないと的中率は高いです。ただ、今回搭載した機能で見ると

◎は良いが、○と▲は微妙な馬番(笑) それが分かっているかどうかは別として

この2頭の期待値は高い! つまり、買われてない(笑)

この二人はリーディングTop10内なのにです。

ただね、ここまで見ると三連複・三連単は買いかなぁって思うけど、

と

から印を振り直し

三連複は期待値良いので追加して

としてみた。本来は上2つは買わないのが吉かな?

本日採用のランキング・モデル

RankCK2000_loop3_NDCG7671_7738.zip

新馬戦

183R	1点	芝(129R)	ダート(54R)	8頭以下(28R)	9～12頭(68R)	13頭以上(87R)	多点
単勝	17.49% (61.37%)	19.38% (57.44%)	12.96% (70.74%)	32.14% (60.71%)	23.53% (65.44%)	8.05% (58.39%)	49.73% (82.20%)
複勝	40.98% (68.25%)	41.86% (64.73%)	38.89% (76.67%)	50.00% (62.14%)	45.59% (69.71%)	34.48% (69.08%)	83.61% (76.10%)
枠連	10.88% (137.55%)	13.40% (184.12%)	6.00% (47.20%)	-- (--)	13.24% (76.62%)	8.05% (172.53%)	23.13% (97.89%)
馬連	7.65% (123.66%)	10.08% (167.83%)	1.85% (18.15%)	17.86% (151.07%)	7.35% (54.85%)	4.60% (168.62%)	19.13% (105.37%)
ワイド	15.30% (73.33%)	18.60% (85.97%)	7.41% (43.15%)	35.71% (100.71%)	14.71% (52.65%)	9.20% (80.69%)	33.33% (67.27%)
馬単	4.92% (61.42%)	6.20% (79.69%)	1.85% (17.78%)	14.29% (174.64%)	7.35% (93.38%)	0.00% (0.00%)	19.13% (108.73%)
三連複	2.19% (52.08%)	3.10% (73.88%)	0.00% (0.00%)	10.71% (293.21%)	1.47% (19.41%)	0.00% (0.00%)	7.10% (29.85%)
三連単	1.64% (156.83%)	2.33% (222.48%)	0.00% (0.00%)	7.14% (797.14%)	1.47% (93.82%)	0.00% (0.00%)	7.10% (18.83%)
総合	43.72% (90.66%)	44.96% (114.87%)	40.74% (34.09%)	53.57% (234.23%)	50.00% (65.74%)	35.63% (68.66%)	83.61% (50.53%)

ダートの新馬戦は手を出しちゃいけないって話だな(笑)

新馬戦以外

2,427R	1点	芝(1,149R)	ダート(1,189R)	障害(89R)	8頭以下(129R)	9～12頭(597R)	13頭以上(1,701R)	多点
単勝	25.22% (73.63%)	24.98% (77.08%)	25.57% (71.50%)	23.60% (57.53%)	35.66% (75.43%)	27.30% (70.07%)	23.69% (74.74%)	55.17% (74.91%)
複勝	56.45% (79.81%)	54.66% (79.87%)	58.03% (80.03%)	58.43% (76.18%)	66.67% (91.55%)	61.98% (79.72%)	53.73% (78.95%)	90.03% (82.17%)
枠連	14.22% (73.42%)	13.42% (79.22%)	14.59% (65.45%)	18.99% (114.68%)	-- (--)	13.40% (56.06%)	13.70% (75.32%)	30.71% (76.65%)
馬連	10.47% (63.37%)	9.92% (68.12%)	10.85% (55.66%)	12.36% (105.06%)	24.03% (89.77%)	11.22% (60.80%)	9.17% (62.27%)	24.02% (73.84%)
ワイド	25.38% (74.54%)	24.28% (72.70%)	26.75% (76.38%)	21.35% (73.71%)	44.19% (75.89%)	28.81% (76.28%)	22.75% (73.82%)	47.84% (80.07%)
馬単	5.73% (60.22%)	4.96% (59.25%)	6.39% (56.87%)	6.74% (117.42%)	11.63% (48.91%)	6.53% (60.59%)	5.00% (60.95%)	24.02% (70.71%)
三連複	7.42% (113.28%)	7.31% (144.35%)	7.74% (89.67%)	4.49% (27.64%)	13.95% (62.71%)	8.38% (69.60%)	6.58% (132.45%)	17.63% (81.49%)
三連単	1.57% (105.63%)	1.04% (80.45%)	2.10% (135.58%)	1.12% (30.67%)	1.55% (23.57%)	2.18% (51.89%)	1.35% (130.72%)	17.63% (80.40%)
総合	58.34% (80.57%)	57.09% (82.69%)	59.46% (78.97%)	59.55% (74.80%)	69.77% (66.83%)	62.31% (65.63%)	56.08% (86.15%)	90.19% (78.44%)

惨敗でした😱

進む方向が定まらない

パラメータ / 指標	条件 1	条件 2	条件 3	条件 4	条件 5	条件 6	条件 7
NumberOfLeaves	511	511	511	511	511	511	351
NumberOfIterations	2,000	2,000	2,000	2,000	2,000	2,000	2,000
LearningRate	0.010	0.010	0.010	0.010	0.010	0.010	0.010
MaximumBin	31	47	63	79	95	111	127
MinimumExample	50	50	50	50	50	50	50
SubsampleFraction	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800
FeatureFraction	0.75	0.75	0.75	0.75	0.75	0.75	0.75
ボーダー	500	500	500	500	500	500	500
乗数	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.95
Loop	2	6	9	5	3	5	1
NDCG@1	0.7669	0.7668	0.7664	0.7654	0.7667	0.7662	0.7657
NDCG@3	0.7734	0.7727	0.7729	0.7732	0.7726	0.7734	0.7729
NDCG@5	0.7887	0.7892	0.7888	0.7886	0.7895	0.7888	0.7879
NDCG@10	0.8495	0.8496	0.8494	0.8495	0.8495	0.8496	0.8492

分割数増やす方向はもしかするとイテレーション数2,000ではダメだったかも?

諦めるとかはしたくないので

昨夜も試してたが書く気にもならない結果だった(笑) で、今晩は葉を増やして

NumberOfLeaves: 319
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 31
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
FeatureFraction: 0.75
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

軽く10回試した結果、最適は

[Loop 3] NDCG@1 = 0.7671
[Loop 3] NDCG@3 = 0.7738
[Loop 3] NDCG@5 = 0.7889
[Loop 3] NDCG@10 = 0.8495

2,610R	1点	芝(1,278R)	ダート(1,243R)	障害(89R)	8頭以下(157R)	9～12頭(665R)	13頭以上(1,788R)	多点
単勝	24.67% (72.77%)	24.41% (75.09%)	25.02% (71.46%)	23.60% (57.53%)	35.03% (72.80%)	26.92% (69.59%)	22.93% (73.94%)	54.79% (75.42%)
複勝	55.36% (79.00%)	53.36% (78.34%)	57.20% (79.88%)	58.43% (76.18%)	63.69% (86.31%)	60.30% (78.69%)	52.80% (78.47%)	89.58% (81.74%)
枠連	14.01% (77.43%)	13.42% (88.58%)	14.23% (64.67%)	18.99% (114.68%)	-- (--)	13.38% (58.17%)	13.42% (80.05%)	30.24% (77.99%)
馬連	10.27% (67.60%)	9.94% (78.18%)	10.46% (54.03%)	12.36% (105.06%)	22.93% (100.70%)	10.83% (60.20%)	8.95% (67.44%)	23.68% (76.05%)
ワイド	24.67% (74.45%)	23.71% (74.04%)	25.91% (74.93%)	21.35% (73.71%)	42.68% (80.32%)	27.37% (73.86%)	22.09% (74.16%)	46.82% (79.17%)
馬単	5.67% (60.30%)	5.09% (61.31%)	6.19% (55.17%)	6.74% (117.42%)	12.10% (71.34%)	6.62% (63.94%)	4.75% (57.98%)	23.68% (73.37%)
三連複	7.05% (108.99%)	6.89% (137.24%)	7.40% (85.78%)	4.49% (27.64%)	13.38% (103.82%)	7.67% (64.47%)	6.26% (126.01%)	16.90% (77.87%)
三連単	1.57% (109.22%)	1.17% (94.79%)	2.01% (129.69%)	1.12% (30.67%)	2.55% (161.53%)	2.11% (56.18%)	1.29% (124.36%)	16.90% (76.09%)
総合	57.32% (81.27%)	55.87% (85.90%)	58.65% (77.03%)	59.55% (74.80%)	66.88% (96.69%)	61.05% (65.64%)	55.09% (85.30%)	89.73% (76.49%)

ちょっと精度が上がった^^ 今週末はこの線で進めてみます。

追記 2026.10.23 19:49

NumberOfLeaves: 335
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 31
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
FeatureFraction: 0.75
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

10回ためすと最適は

[Loop 5] NDCG@1 = 0.7672
[Loop 5] NDCG@3 = 0.7726
[Loop 5] NDCG@5 = 0.7891
[Loop 5] NDCG@10 = 0.8496

2,610R	1点	芝(1,278R)	ダート(1,243R)	障害(89R)	8頭以下(157R)	9～12頭(665R)	13頭以上(1,788R)	多点
単勝	24.18% (70.65%)	23.94% (71.84%)	24.62% (71.00%)	21.35% (48.65%)	38.22% (84.39%)	26.62% (68.05%)	22.04% (70.41%)	55.25% (75.39%)
複勝	54.25% (76.81%)	51.88% (75.20%)	56.40% (78.54%)	58.43% (75.96%)	65.61% (88.85%)	58.35% (75.01%)	51.73% (76.43%)	89.50% (81.11%)
枠連	14.40% (79.35%)	13.33% (88.24%)	15.24% (70.78%)	16.46% (84.94%)	-- (--)	13.98% (65.19%)	13.70% (79.96%)	30.24% (77.07%)
馬連	10.50% (68.05%)	9.94% (77.82%)	11.02% (58.21%)	11.24% (65.39%)	21.66% (92.87%)	11.58% (63.76%)	9.12% (67.47%)	24.02% (79.97%)
ワイド	24.52% (73.65%)	23.94% (75.38%)	25.26% (72.77%)	22.47% (61.12%)	40.76% (78.28%)	27.22% (70.80%)	22.09% (74.30%)	46.70% (77.28%)
馬単	6.05% (59.64%)	5.79% (63.75%)	6.36% (56.19%)	5.62% (48.88%)	15.29% (96.94%)	7.52% (61.02%)	4.70% (55.86%)	24.02% (77.59%)
三連複	6.90% (108.30%)	6.89% (136.14%)	7.00% (80.29%)	5.62% (99.78%)	12.74% (85.99%)	7.67% (72.81%)	6.10% (123.46%)	16.59% (78.13%)
三連単	1.53% (93.02%)	1.33% (61.96%)	1.77% (129.42%)	1.12% (30.67%)	3.18% (131.40%)	2.11% (51.80%)	1.17% (104.98%)	16.59% (75.49%)
総合	56.36% (78.68%)	54.30% (81.16%)	58.25% (77.19%)	59.55% (64.13%)	68.79% (94.10%)	58.95% (66.05%)	54.31% (81.61%)	89.54% (76.78%)

これは精度ダウン。

Microsoft Rewards 33回目

ここに書くの忘れてました。昨日またamazonギフトに交換しました。前回から38日程度で大体ここの所のペースですね。40日ペースだと年9回程度って事で5,400円/年です。やり慣れてるので習慣になってて朝のちょっとした時間でやってます。他の買い物を経由とかしてって事ではないので悪くないと思い継続してます。

Microsoft Rewards 紹介リンク

更にランキング学習の続き

NumberOfLeaves: 303
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 31
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
FeatureFraction: 0.75
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

昨夜これを40回スタートして寝た。最適は

[Loop 15] NDCG@1 = 0.7671
[Loop 15] NDCG@3 = 0.7730
[Loop 15] NDCG@5 = 0.7887
[Loop 15] NDCG@10 = 0.8498

2,610R	1点	芝(1,278R)	ダート(1,243R)	障害(89R)	8頭以下(157R)	9～12頭(665R)	13頭以上(1,788R)	多点
単勝	24.37% (73.60%)	23.87% (74.30%)	25.10% (74.60%)	21.35% (49.66%)	33.76% (72.36%)	25.41% (62.20%)	23.15% (77.95%)	54.87% (75.76%)
複勝	55.40% (79.59%)	53.21% (78.12%)	57.36% (81.17%)	59.55% (78.76%)	64.33% (86.43%)	59.55% (76.86%)	53.08% (80.01%)	89.62% (82.11%)
枠連	14.27% (81.66%)	13.05% (88.24%)	15.33% (74.75%)	15.19% (94.43%)	-- (--)	13.23% (61.67%)	13.81% (84.30%)	30.28% (76.86%)
馬連	10.42% (71.71%)	9.70% (76.28%)	11.18% (66.68%)	10.11% (76.40%)	21.02% (88.41%)	11.13% (68.23%)	9.23% (71.54%)	23.72% (79.10%)
ワイド	24.75% (77.06%)	23.94% (76.75%)	25.82% (78.33%)	21.35% (63.82%)	38.85% (76.88%)	27.67% (76.08%)	22.43% (77.44%)	47.24% (79.88%)
馬単	5.86% (63.75%)	5.09% (63.04%)	6.76% (64.47%)	4.49% (63.82%)	10.83% (85.03%)	6.17% (50.68%)	5.31% (66.74%)	23.72% (76.64%)
三連複	6.90% (108.40%)	6.65% (131.21%)	7.24% (85.57%)	5.62% (99.78%)	15.92% (122.04%)	7.37% (66.87%)	5.93% (122.65%)	17.20% (78.74%)
三連単	1.69% (126.79%)	1.25% (96.03%)	2.25% (167.50%)	0.00% (0.00%)	4.46% (214.59%)	1.80% (48.29%)	1.40% (148.28%)	17.20% (75.14%)
総合	57.16% (85.37%)	55.40% (85.44%)	58.73% (86.71%)	60.67% (65.43%)	67.52% (106.53%)	59.70% (63.86%)	55.31% (91.12%)	89.81% (76.72%)

次点で

[Loop 2] NDCG@1 = 0.7666
[Loop 2] NDCG@3 = 0.7735
[Loop 2] NDCG@5 = 0.7890
[Loop 2] NDCG@10 = 0.8500

2,610R	1点	芝(1,278R)	ダート(1,243R)	障害(89R)	8頭以下(157R)	9～12頭(665R)	13頭以上(1,788R)	多点
単勝	24.21% (71.43%)	23.08% (70.05%)	25.50% (74.26%)	22.47% (51.91%)	33.12% (71.53%)	26.47% (68.20%)	22.60% (72.63%)	55.21% (75.31%)
複勝	54.87% (77.79%)	52.11% (75.38%)	57.44% (80.50%)	58.43% (74.72%)	64.33% (84.20%)	58.95% (76.63%)	52.52% (77.66%)	89.54% (82.13%)
枠連	14.18% (82.58%)	13.05% (87.02%)	14.90% (77.11%)	18.99% (103.16%)	-- (--)	14.59% (66.51%)	13.20% (83.71%)	31.01% (78.12%)
馬連	10.15% (67.03%)	9.47% (72.61%)	10.70% (60.72%)	12.36% (75.06%)	22.93% (95.29%)	11.73% (65.16%)	8.45% (65.24%)	23.98% (77.51%)
ワイド	24.02% (72.62%)	23.24% (73.81%)	25.02% (72.44%)	21.35% (58.20%)	41.40% (80.38%)	26.92% (71.35%)	21.42% (72.42%)	47.47% (80.83%)
馬単	5.40% (53.33%)	4.46% (48.68%)	6.36% (58.43%)	5.62% (48.88%)	12.74% (97.13%)	6.92% (60.33%)	4.19% (46.88%)	23.98% (75.17%)
三連複	7.24% (107.98%)	6.96% (134.69%)	7.64% (85.82%)	5.62% (33.71%)	15.29% (102.99%)	8.27% (67.47%)	6.15% (123.48%)	17.20% (76.47%)
三連単	1.61% (90.43%)	1.10% (42.57%)	2.17% (143.92%)	1.12% (30.67%)	5.10% (190.25%)	1.80% (51.62%)	1.23% (96.10%)	17.20% (75.38%)
総合	57.01% (77.84%)	54.69% (75.38%)	59.21% (81.68%)	59.55% (58.92%)	68.15% (103.11%)	60.00% (65.91%)	54.92% (79.76%)	89.85% (76.47%)

次はどう攻めるかだな^^;