2026/11/01

第174回天皇賞(秋)

なんかJRA-VAN Data Lab.開発者コミュニティが大盛況なんだけど、多くはPythonで似た話題が多い気がする^^; AIにでも指示されてな感じがしなくもないけど、何故一夜にしてこんな状況になったのかが不思議だ(笑)

さて、先日リリースしたのはバグがあったので上手く表示されてなかった。

以前から言われていた東京芝2,000mでのコース形態からの外枠不利だけど、確かにデータ的にもはっきりとしてる感じです。で、人気の2頭は内側引いてるので特に問題はなさそうです。堅い決着になる気はするけど、そんなの予想しても全く面白くないので穴的にねらえそうな馬を探す。

脚質的に逃げ・先行が有利なので例えば岩田のホウオウビスケッツは良いんだが、ギリで内枠ではない(笑) まあ、あくまで内枠有利ってだけで、外枠が勝てないとまではいってなのも事実なのはデータ的にも6枠12番のみが過去1着が無いだけで、他は数回ある。

ちょっと大きな夢馬券です。

何時になったら大きいの当てられるかなぁ。

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2026/10/31

本日のモデル

本日使用するモデルは

[Loop 9] NDCG@1 = 0.7667
[Loop 9] NDCG@3 = 0.7730
[Loop 9] NDCG@5 = 0.7886
[Loop 9] NDCG@10 = 0.8494

総合的には

2,610R 1点 芝(1,278R) ダート(1,243R) 障害(89R) 8頭以下(157R) 9～12頭(665R) 13頭以上(1,788R) 多点
単勝 25.21%
(73.46%)		 24.96%
(75.63%)		 25.66%
(72.43%)		 22.47%
(56.74%)		 32.48%
(68.15%)		 27.82%
(72.68%)		 23.60%
(74.22%)		 55.48%
(75.63%)
複勝 54.90%
(77.16%)		 52.90%
(75.47%)		 56.72%
(78.90%)		 58.43%
(77.19%)		 63.06%
(85.61%)		 59.40%
(75.92%)		 52.52%
(76.88%)		 89.62%
(80.48%)
枠連 14.48%
(81.73%)		 13.51%
(89.50%)		 15.16%
(74.27%)		 17.72%
(86.20%)		 --
(--)		 14.44%
(66.24%)		 13.65%
(82.69%)		 30.54%
(78.29%)
馬連 10.54%
(68.56%)		 9.70%
(74.37%)		 11.26%
(62.55%)		 12.36%
(68.99%)		 21.66%
(80.00%)		 11.73%
(64.74%)		 9.12%
(68.97%)		 23.56%
(72.53%)
ワイド 24.52%
(74.24%)		 23.08%
(71.63%)		 26.07%
(76.54%)		 23.60%
(79.66%)		 39.49%
(69.43%)		 27.82%
(73.70%)		 21.98%
(74.87%)		 46.28%
(75.56%)
馬単 6.21%
(62.91%)		 5.56%
(64.22%)		 6.92%
(62.17%)		 5.62%
(54.49%)		 12.74%
(72.10%)		 7.37%
(70.05%)		 5.20%
(59.45%)		 23.56%
(70.08%)
三連複 6.90%
(105.38%)		 6.49%
(129.29%)		 7.48%
(86.37%)		 4.49%
(27.64%)		 12.74%
(72.10%)		 7.67%
(60.32%)		 6.10%
(125.07%)		 16.82%
(74.24%)
三連単 2.03%
(135.03%)		 1.56%
(102.03%)		 2.57%
(176.43%)		 1.12%
(30.67%)		 3.18%
(93.82%)		 2.56%
(126.23%)		 1.73%
(141.92%)		 16.82%
(70.31%)
総合 56.90%
(84.85%)		 55.48%
(85.19%)		 58.25%
(86.28%)		 58.43%
(59.83%)		 66.24%
(77.32%)		 60.15%
(76.23%)		 54.87%
(88.01%)		 89.81%
(72.44%)

新馬戦

183R 1点 芝(129R) ダート(54R) 8頭以下(28R) 9～12頭(68R) 13頭以上(87R) 多点
単勝 16.39%
(50.98%)		 18.60%
(58.60%)		 11.11%
(32.78%)		 28.57%
(55.36%)		 22.06%
(66.47%)		 8.05%
(37.47%)		 48.63%
(79.64%)
複勝 41.53%
(69.78%)		 42.64%
(64.11%)		 38.89%
(83.33%)		 57.14%
(103.57%)		 42.65%
(58.82%)		 35.63%
(67.47%)		 83.61%
(74.68%)
枠連 9.52%
(124.56%)		 13.40%
(178.25%)		 2.00%
(20.40%)		 --
(--)		 10.29%
(62.35%)		 8.05%
(161.72%)		 23.81%
(112.16%)
馬連 7.65%
(115.30%)		 10.85%
(163.57%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 21.43%
(157.86%)		 5.88%
(40.44%)		 4.60%
(160.11%)		 15.85%
(84.17%)
ワイド 13.11%
(60.71%)		 17.05%
(72.71%)		 3.70%
(32.04%)		 35.71%
(95.36%)		 10.29%
(29.26%)		 8.05%
(74.14%)		 28.96%
(56.68%)
馬単 4.37%
(56.67%)		 6.20%
(80.39%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 14.29%
(177.86%)		 5.88%
(79.26%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 15.85%
(84.03%)
三連複 1.64%
(23.61%)		 2.33%
(33.49%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 3.57%
(97.50%)		 2.94%
(23.38%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 7.10%
(25.03%)
三連単 1.64%
(94.75%)		 2.33%
(134.42%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 3.57%
(308.93%)		 2.94%
(127.79%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 7.10%
(17.01%)
総合 43.17%
(73.28%)		 44.96%
(95.63%)		 38.89%
(21.07%)		 57.14%
(142.35%)		 45.59%
(60.97%)		 36.78%
(62.61%)		 83.61%
(44.60%)

新馬戦以外

2,427R 1点 芝(1,149R) ダート(1,189R) 障害(89R) 8頭以下(129R) 9～12頭(597R) 13頭以上(1,701R) 多点
単勝 25.88%
(75.16%)		 25.67%
(77.55%)		 26.32%
(74.23%)		 22.47%
(56.74%)		 33.33%
(70.93%)		 28.48%
(73.38%)		 24.40%
(76.10%)		 56.00%
(75.32%)
複勝 55.91%
(77.72%)		 54.05%
(76.74%)		 57.53%
(78.70%)		 58.43%
(77.19%)		 64.34%
(81.71%)		 61.31%
(77.87%)		 53.38%
(77.36%)		 90.07%
(80.91%)
枠連 14.81%
(78.87%)		 13.52%
(80.82%)		 15.74%
(76.65%)		 17.72%
(86.20%)		 --
(--)		 14.91%
(66.68%)		 13.93%
(78.65%)		 30.99%
(76.01%)
馬連 10.75%
(65.03%)		 9.57%
(64.35%)		 11.77%
(65.39%)		 12.36%
(68.99%)		 21.71%
(63.10%)		 12.40%
(67.50%)		 9.35%
(64.31%)		 24.15%
(71.65%)
ワイド 25.38%
(75.26%)		 23.76%
(71.51%)		 27.08%
(78.56%)		 23.60%
(79.66%)		 40.31%
(63.80%)		 29.82%
(78.76%)		 22.69%
(74.90%)		 47.59%
(76.98%)
馬単 6.35%
(63.38%)		 5.48%
(62.40%)		 7.23%
(65.00%)		 5.62%
(54.49%)		 12.40%
(49.15%)		 7.54%
(68.99%)		 5.47%
(62.49%)		 24.15%
(69.03%)
三連複 7.29%
(111.55%)		 6.96%
(140.04%)		 7.82%
(90.29%)		 4.49%
(27.64%)		 14.73%
(66.59%)		 8.21%
(64.52%)		 6.41%
(131.46%)		 17.55%
(77.95%)
三連単 2.06%
(138.07%)		 1.48%
(98.40%)		 2.69%
(184.44%)		 1.12%
(30.67%)		 3.10%
(47.13%)		 2.51%
(126.05%)		 1.82%
(149.18%)		 17.55%
(74.33%)
総合 57.93%
(85.71%)		 56.66%
(84.03%)		 59.13%
(89.23%)		 58.43%
(59.83%)		 68.22%
(63.20%)		 61.81%
(77.97%)		 55.79%
(89.31%)		 90.28%
(74.53%)

追記 2026.10.31 10:28

さらだには期待値分析機能を実装してるんですが、このモデル

つまり、期待値設定1.0にして買い目絞り込めば黒字化が可能。これ、更に言えば全券種でプラスに牽引してるのは三連系なんです。

まあ、数値的にはそうなんだけど、当たり前に1点買いでは滅多に当たりが来ない(笑) 1点買いだから出費を抑えて当たりが来た時には回収可能って事の様です。

この期待値分析機能なんだけど、今後多点買いまたは、現在の1点買いは1点目の期待値で判断してるけど、期待値が超える最初の1点にするとかも検討中。

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2026/10/29

L2の適正値模索

時刻 L2 Regularization NDCG@1 NDCG@3 NDCG@5 NDCG@10 保存ファイル名
21:29 0.950 0.7568 0.7660 0.7835 0.8458 RankCK2000_loop1_NDCG7568_7660.zip
21:43 0.900 0.7573 0.7662 0.7836 0.8460 RankCK2000_loop1_NDCG7573_7662.zip
21:52 0.850 0.7590 0.7668 0.7833 0.8459 RankCK2000_loop1_NDCG7590_7668.zip
22:01 0.800 0.7580 0.7660 0.7830 0.8459 RankCK2000_loop1_NDCG7580_7660.zip
22:11 0.750 0.7573 0.7661 0.7833 0.8458 RankCK2000_loop1_NDCG7573_7661.zip
22:28 0.700 0.7554 0.7654 0.7825 0.8455 RankCK2000_loop1_NDCG7654_7654.zip
22:57 0.650 0.7555 0.7652 0.7822 0.8457 RankCK2000_loop1_NDCG7555_7652.zip
23:14 0.600 0.7593 0.7663 0.7836 0.8462 RankCK2000_loop1_NDCG7593_7663.zip

L2の調査です。

NDCG@1とNDCG@3だと、L2=0.85で
[Loop 1] NDCG@1 = 0.7590
[Loop 1] NDCG@3 = 0.7668
[Loop 1] NDCG@5 = 0.7833
[Loop 1] NDCG@10 = 0.8459

2,610R 1点 芝(1,278R) ダート(1,243R) 障害(89R) 8頭以下(157R) 9～12頭(665R) 13頭以上(1,788R) 多点
単勝 23.07%
(71.85%)		 23.24%
(75.39%)		 23.33%
(70.54%)		 16.85%
(39.33%)		 31.21%
(68.28%)		 25.41%
(69.55%)		 21.48%
(73.02%)		 54.14%
(77.34%)
複勝 52.72%
(77.66%)		 51.41%
(76.64%)		 53.82%
(78.25%)		 56.18%
(83.93%)		 59.87%
(81.91%)		 58.95%
(79.56%)		 49.78%
(76.57%)		 88.51%
(81.66%)
枠連 12.44%
(71.31%)		 11.67%
(77.23%)		 13.04%
(65.66%)		 13.92%
(74.18%)		 --
(--)		 12.93%
(57.35%)		 11.52%
(72.31%)		 29.30%
(79.08%)
馬連 9.31%
(60.03%)		 8.76%
(60.05%)		 9.90%
(59.59%)		 8.99%
(65.84%)		 19.75%
(85.86%)		 10.53%
(58.11%)		 7.94%
(58.47%)		 22.91%
(79.13%)
ワイド 22.53%
(69.10%)		 21.28%
(67.81%)		 23.89%
(70.94%)		 21.35%
(62.02%)		 38.85%
(85.10%)		 26.47%
(72.41%)		 19.63%
(66.47%)		 45.10%
(79.39%)
馬単 4.87%
(54.73%)		 4.46%
(52.49%)		 5.39%
(59.19%)		 3.37%
(24.72%)		 11.46%
(103.57%)		 5.71%
(54.44%)		 3.97%
(50.55%)		 22.91%
(76.15%)
三連複 6.67%
(114.07%)		 6.73%
(151.46%)		 6.76%
(81.73%)		 4.49%
(28.88%)		 14.65%
(104.39%)		 8.12%
(74.27%)		 5.43%
(129.72%)		 16.09%
(78.57%)
三連単 1.38%
(70.75%)		 1.64%
(79.36%)		 1.21%
(66.97%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 5.73%
(248.54%)		 1.65%
(103.32%)		 0.89%
(43.03%)		 16.09%
(78.29%)
総合 54.60%
(73.72%)		 53.52%
(80.11%)		 55.43%
(69.13%)		 58.43%
(46.98%)		 64.33%
(111.09%)		 59.55%
(71.13%)		 51.90%
(71.27%)		 88.85%
(78.36%)

NDCG@10だと、L2=0.60で
[Loop 1] NDCG@1 = 0.7593
[Loop 1] NDCG@3 = 0.7663
[Loop 1] NDCG@5 = 0.7836
[Loop 1] NDCG@10 = 0.8462

2,610R 1点 芝(1,278R) ダート(1,243R) 障害(89R) 8頭以下(157R) 9～12頭(665R) 13頭以上(1,788R) 多点
単勝 23.07%
(73.48%)		 22.85%
(75.02%)		 23.57%
(73.96%)		 19.10%
(44.61%)		 28.66%
(61.53%)		 24.36%
(65.97%)		 22.09%
(77.32%)		 53.60%
(76.41%)
複勝 53.83%
(80.42%)		 51.80%
(78.90%)		 55.59%
(81.92%)		 58.43%
(81.24%)		 60.51%
(83.82%)		 58.95%
(79.59%)		 51.34%
(80.43%)		 87.93%
(80.70%)
枠連 14.27%
(83.66%)		 14.52%
(96.64%)		 13.97%
(71.52%)		 15.19%
(86.58%)		 --
(--)		 15.34%
(74.81%)		 13.03%
(82.04%)		 29.94%
(79.75%)
馬連 10.31%
(68.75%)		 10.56%
(81.93%)		 10.14%
(55.85%)		 8.99%
(59.78%)		 19.75%
(79.24%)		 12.48%
(71.98%)		 8.67%
(66.63%)		 23.22%
(77.34%)
ワイド 22.68%
(71.44%)		 22.93%
(75.45%)		 23.01%
(69.79%)		 14.61%
(36.97%)		 40.13%
(89.43%)		 26.17%
(66.95%)		 19.85%
(71.54%)		 45.10%
(79.40%)
馬単 5.36%
(70.92%)		 5.87%
(90.44%)		 4.99%
(53.76%)		 3.37%
(30.45%)		 8.92%
(69.04%)		 7.52%
(76.54%)		 4.25%
(69.00%)		 23.22%
(75.68%)
三連複 6.44%
(105.14%)		 6.73%
(134.45%)		 6.28%
(80.55%)		 4.49%
(27.64%)		 14.65%
(108.73%)		 7.52%
(66.41%)		 5.31%
(119.23%)		 15.67%
(69.77%)
三連単 1.03%
(34.59%)		 1.10%
(43.88%)		 1.05%
(27.51%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 2.55%
(145.10%)		 1.80%
(52.29%)		 0.62%
(18.30%)		 15.67%
(65.88%)
総合 55.56%
(73.42%)		 53.68%
(84.36%)		 57.12%
(64.31%)		 60.67%
(45.33%)		 63.06%
(90.98%)		 60.00%
(69.32%)		 53.24%
(73.06%)		 88.28%
(71.25%)
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2026/10/28

イテレーション数上げても

NumberOfLeaves: 319
NumberOfIterations: 4000
LearningRate: 0.005
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 150
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
FeatureFraction: 0.75
L2Regularization: 1.000
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

これ40回スタートして寝たら、朝までに終わらずそのまま出社^^; 10時間21分掛かった模様。NDCG@1的には
[Loop 6] NDCG@1 = 0.7671
[Loop 6] NDCG@3 = 0.7728
[Loop 6] NDCG@5 = 0.7886
[Loop 6] NDCG@10 = 0.8495

2,610R 1点 芝(1,278R) ダート(1,243R) 障害(89R) 8頭以下(157R) 9～12頭(665R) 13頭以上(1,788R) 多点
単勝 24.98%
(73.08%)		 24.10%
(73.09%)		 26.07%
(73.89%)		 22.47%
(61.69%)		 33.12%
(68.79%)		 28.12%
(75.44%)		 23.10%
(72.58%)		 55.94%
(76.52%)
複勝 55.29%
(78.11%)		 52.66%
(75.83%)		 57.60%
(80.10%)		 60.67%
(83.03%)		 64.97%
(93.69%)		 60.30%
(77.64%)		 52.57%
(76.92%)		 89.69%
(81.03%)
枠連 14.14%
(76.32%)		 12.59%
(83.34%)		 15.16%
(67.48%)		 20.25%
(111.77%)		 --
(--)		 12.93%
(57.68%)		 13.76%
(78.76%)		 30.58%
(77.98%)
馬連 10.34%
(65.41%)		 9.15%
(68.67%)		 11.34%
(60.85%)		 13.48%
(82.36%)		 21.66%
(82.04%)		 10.83%
(57.50%)		 9.17%
(66.90%)		 24.02%
(78.68%)
ワイド 24.75%
(74.12%)		 23.40%
(72.07%)		 26.31%
(76.85%)		 22.47%
(65.51%)		 41.40%
(76.82%)		 26.92%
(70.86%)		 22.48%
(75.10%)		 46.67%
(75.99%)
馬単 5.79%
(57.29%)		 4.77%
(51.21%)		 6.92%
(64.50%)		 4.49%
(43.93%)		 12.10%
(73.76%)		 6.47%
(57.47%)		 4.98%
(55.77%)		 24.02%
(75.82%)
三連複 6.82%
(103.07%)		 6.49%
(127.81%)		 7.32%
(83.02%)		 4.49%
(27.64%)		 12.74%
(61.46%)		 7.67%
(61.02%)		 5.98%
(122.35%)		 16.48%
(73.02%)
三連単 1.57%
(86.84%)		 1.02%
(40.21%)		 2.17%
(138.80%)		 1.12%
(30.67%)		 1.91%
(34.33%)		 1.95%
(48.29%)		 1.40%
(105.79%)		 16.48%
(71.11%)
総合 57.32%
(76.78%)		 55.09%
(73.85%)		 59.37%
(80.77%)		 60.67%
(62.64%)		 67.52%
(70.13%)		 60.75%
(63.24%)		 55.15%
(81.77%)		 89.81%
(73.93%)

NDCG@3的には
[Loop 15] NDCG@1 = 0.7662
[Loop 15] NDCG@3 = 0.7732
[Loop 15] NDCG@5 = 0.7890
[Loop 15] NDCG@10 = 0.8495

2,610R 1点 芝(1,278R) ダート(1,243R) 障害(89R) 8頭以下(157R) 9～12頭(665R) 13頭以上(1,788R) 多点
単勝 24.64%
(72.49%)		 23.94%
(73.82%)		 25.50%
(71.91%)		 22.47%
(61.69%)		 33.76%
(71.59%)		 27.67%
(72.87%)		 22.71%
(72.43%)		 55.71%
(76.44%)
複勝 55.52%
(79.21%)		 53.13%
(77.51%)		 57.36%
(80.27%)		 64.04%
(88.88%)		 64.97%
(92.74%)		 60.60%
(78.21%)		 52.80%
(78.39%)		 89.58%
(81.24%)
枠連 13.80%
(78.42%)		 12.78%
(86.65%)		 14.56%
(70.90%)		 16.46%
(77.59%)		 --
(--)		 12.93%
(56.45%)		 13.31%
(81.99%)		 30.54%
(78.45%)
馬連 10.04%
(65.93%)		 9.08%
(71.63%)		 10.94%
(60.37%)		 11.24%
(61.69%)		 20.38%
(78.34%)		 10.38%
(54.14%)		 9.00%
(69.22%)		 23.87%
(78.46%)
ワイド 24.41%
(74.81%)		 22.93%
(71.83%)		 26.07%
(77.67%)		 22.47%
(77.64%)		 40.13%
(74.59%)		 26.92%
(72.15%)		 22.09%
(75.82%)		 46.36%
(76.85%)
馬単 5.59%
(55.80%)		 4.62%
(54.44%)		 6.68%
(58.06%)		 4.49%
(43.93%)		 10.83%
(65.29%)		 6.17%
(53.74%)		 4.92%
(55.74%)		 23.87%
(75.51%)
三連複 7.05%
(106.23%)		 6.57%
(128.47%)		 7.72%
(88.99%)		 4.49%
(27.64%)		 12.74%
(61.46%)		 7.97%
(67.38%)		 6.21%
(124.61%)		 16.70%
(72.75%)
三連単 1.69%
(104.97%)		 1.17%
(79.51%)		 2.25%
(136.45%)		 1.12%
(30.67%)		 1.91%
(34.33%)		 1.95%
(49.41%)		 1.57%
(131.83%)		 16.70%
(71.10%)
総合 57.39%
(79.75%)		 55.40%
(80.37%)		 58.97%
(80.64%)		 64.04%
(58.45%)		 67.52%
(68.33%)		 61.20%
(63.05%)		 55.09%
(86.25%)		 89.77%
(73.93%)

NDCG@5的には
[Loop 22] NDCG@1 = 0.7659
[Loop 22] NDCG@3 = 0.7729
[Loop 22] NDCG@5 = 0.7891
[Loop 22] NDCG@10 = 0.8494

2,610R 1点 芝(1,278R) ダート(1,243R) 障害(89R) 8頭以下(157R) 9～12頭(665R) 13頭以上(1,788R) 多点
単勝 24.71%
(72.18%)		 24.26%
(74.51%)		 25.34%
(70.79%)		 22.47%
(58.20%)		 34.39%
(72.74%)		 27.82%
(73.92%)		 22.71%
(71.49%)		 55.44%
(75.58%)
複勝 55.25%
(78.06%)		 52.74%
(75.65%)		 57.44%
(80.43%)		 60.67%
(79.55%)		 65.61%
(88.28%)		 60.75%
(78.54%)		 52.29%
(76.98%)		 89.46%
(81.28%)
枠連 14.40%
(80.40%)		 13.24%
(87.70%)		 15.16%
(71.92%)		 18.99%
(106.71%)		 --
(--)		 13.23%
(57.68%)		 13.98%
(84.13%)		 30.62%
(79.07%)
馬連 10.23%
(66.46%)		 9.31%
(72.32%)		 10.94%
(59.29%)		 13.48%
(82.36%)		 20.38%
(78.34%)		 11.13%
(58.24%)		 9.00%
(68.47%)		 24.14%
(78.82%)
ワイド 24.18%
(72.84%)		 22.38%
(69.17%)		 26.07%
(77.21%)		 23.60%
(64.61%)		 39.49%
(71.53%)		 27.52%
(70.84%)		 21.59%
(73.70%)		 46.97%
(78.73%)
馬単 5.71%
(58.37%)		 4.85%
(57.32%)		 6.60%
(59.34%)		 5.62%
(59.89%)		 11.46%
(69.62%)		 6.32%
(52.48%)		 4.98%
(59.57%)		 24.14%
(76.00%)
三連複 7.16%
(109.43%)		 6.57%
(128.84%)		 7.88%
(90.17%)		 5.62%
(99.78%)		 14.65%
(84.52%)		 8.12%
(75.67%)		 6.15%
(124.18%)		 16.97%
(76.20%)
三連単 1.69%
(111.90%)		 1.25%
(87.13%)		 2.09%
(139.49%)		 2.25%
(82.13%)		 2.55%
(79.24%)		 1.95%
(49.10%)		 1.51%
(138.12%)		 16.97%
(76.16%)
総合 57.39%
(81.22%)		 55.40%
(81.47%)		 59.21%
(81.14%)		 60.67%
(78.76%)		 68.79%
(77.75%)		 61.35%
(64.56%)		 54.92%
(87.08%)		 89.58%
(76.90%)

NDCG@10的には
[Loop 11] NDCG@1 = 0.7664
[Loop 11] NDCG@3 = 0.7730
[Loop 11] NDCG@5 = 0.7889
[Loop 11] NDCG@10 = 0.8496

2,610R 1点 芝(1,278R) ダート(1,243R) 障害(89R) 8頭以下(157R) 9～12頭(665R) 13頭以上(1,788R) 多点
単勝 24.75%
(73.19%)		 23.71%
(72.44%)		 25.82%
(74.48%)		 24.72%
(65.84%)		 31.85%
(67.52%)		 28.27%
(75.05%)		 22.82%
(72.99%)		 55.71%
(75.91%)
複勝 55.21%
(78.81%)		 52.50%
(76.81%)		 57.60%
(80.83%)		 60.67%
(79.33%)		 63.06%
(90.32%)		 60.30%
(77.56%)		 52.63%
(78.26%)		 90.23%
(81.27%)
枠連 14.14%
(80.09%)		 13.14%
(90.56%)		 14.65%
(68.57%)		 20.25%
(108.10%)		 --
(--)		 12.63%
(57.16%)		 13.87%
(83.91%)		 30.62%
(78.25%)
馬連 10.38%
(67.75%)		 9.62%
(76.93%)		 10.86%
(56.90%)		 14.61%
(87.53%)		 21.02%
(79.55%)		 10.68%
(57.70%)		 9.34%
(70.46%)		 23.64%
(76.27%)
ワイド 24.48%
(74.29%)		 22.85%
(71.17%)		 26.15%
(77.74%)		 24.72%
(71.01%)		 40.76%
(75.54%)		 26.02%
(67.92%)		 22.48%
(76.55%)		 46.36%
(75.87%)
馬単 5.79%
(59.49%)		 5.09%
(61.39%)		 6.36%
(55.99%)		 7.87%
(81.24%)		 12.10%
(80.64%)		 6.62%
(57.50%)		 4.92%
(58.38%)		 23.64%
(73.46%)
三連複 6.97%
(105.36%)		 6.42%
(124.62%)		 7.64%
(85.97%)		 5.62%
(99.78%)		 13.38%
(63.50%)		 7.82%
(68.39%)		 6.10%
(122.79%)		 16.78%
(74.25%)
三連単 1.53%
(97.19%)		 1.10%
(69.31%)		 1.93%
(126.93%)		 2.25%
(82.13%)		 1.27%
(19.36%)		 2.41%
(62.35%)		 1.23%
(116.99%)		 16.78%
(70.12%)
総合 57.13%
(79.52%)		 54.93%
(80.21%)		 59.13%
(78.49%)		 60.67%
(84.03%)		 65.61%
(68.06%)		 60.75%
(65.45%)		 55.03%
(85.04%)		 90.46%
(73.08%)

まあ、結局無駄足だったorz ただ、NDCG@5が回収率には向いてる感じは分かったかも^^;

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2026/10/27

続ランキング学習

続きです。

NumberOfLeaves: 319
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 150
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
FeatureFraction: 0.75
L2Regularization: 1.250
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

これ10回予定通りにやりました。

[Loop 8] NDCG@1 = 0.7665
[Loop 8] NDCG@3 = 0.7724
[Loop 8] NDCG@5 = 0.7887
[Loop 8] NDCG@10 = 0.8494

2,610R 1点 芝(1,278R) ダート(1,243R) 障害(89R) 8頭以下(157R) 9～12頭(665R) 13頭以上(1,788R) 多点
単勝 24.94%
(74.44%)		 24.65%
(77.78%)		 25.42%
(72.27%)		 22.47%
(56.74%)		 32.48%
(70.38%)		 27.07%
(69.17%)		 23.49%
(76.75%)		 55.56%
(76.83%)
複勝 55.44%
(78.48%)		 53.68%
(77.10%)		 56.88%
(79.77%)		 60.67%
(80.00%)		 64.97%
(88.98%)		 59.70%
(76.62%)		 53.02%
(78.24%)		 89.69%
(81.35%)
枠連 14.01%
(75.67%)		 13.05%
(83.13%)		 14.48%
(66.58%)		 20.25%
(108.86%)		 --
(--)		 13.23%
(58.69%)		 13.48%
(77.54%)		 30.54%
(77.47%)
馬連 10.19%
(65.52%)		 9.62%
(73.24%)		 10.54%
(56.53%)		 13.48%
(80.22%)		 22.29%
(86.18%)		 10.68%
(57.74%)		 8.95%
(66.60%)		 23.64%
(75.49%)
ワイド 24.94%
(75.46%)		 24.33%
(77.77%)		 25.66%
(73.54%)		 23.60%
(68.99%)		 41.40%
(76.62%)		 26.62%
(70.15%)		 22.87%
(77.33%)		 46.51%
(76.86%)
馬単 5.48%
(52.07%)		 4.62%
(48.65%)		 6.36%
(55.38%)		 5.62%
(54.72%)		 10.83%
(63.50%)		 6.02%
(53.88%)		 4.81%
(50.39%)		 23.64%
(73.19%)
三連複 7.20%
(113.02%)		 6.65%
(133.61%)		 7.88%
(92.81%)		 5.62%
(99.78%)		 14.01%
(100.83%)		 7.82%
(72.72%)		 6.38%
(129.08%)		 16.48%
(70.31%)
三連単 1.72%
(96.39%)		 1.25%
(51.86%)		 2.25%
(146.89%)		 1.12%
(30.67%)		 2.55%
(158.34%)		 2.26%
(56.44%)		 1.45%
(105.82%)		 16.48%
(68.26%)
総合 57.36%
(78.92%)		 56.18%
(77.79%)		 58.33%
(80.56%)		 60.67%
(71.98%)		 68.15%
(92.12%)		 60.45%
(64.43%)		 55.26%
(82.72%)		 89.89%
(71.83%)

[Loop 10] NDCG@1 = 0.7661
[Loop 10] NDCG@3 = 0.7726
[Loop 10] NDCG@5 = 0.7887
[Loop 10] NDCG@10 = 0.8493

2,610R 1点 芝(1,278R) ダート(1,243R) 障害(89R) 8頭以下(157R) 9～12頭(665R) 13頭以上(1,788R) 多点
単勝 24.75%
(71.59%)		 24.41%
(75.14%)		 25.02%
(68.35%)		 25.84%
(65.84%)		 33.12%
(70.38%)		 28.12%
(74.38%)		 22.76%
(70.66%)		 55.56%
(75.80%)
複勝 54.98%
(77.95%)		 52.74%
(77.03%)		 56.72%
(78.36%)		 62.92%
(85.39%)		 64.33%
(93.31%)		 60.30%
(78.24%)		 52.18%
(76.49%)		 89.66%
(80.71%)
枠連 13.97%
(79.28%)		 12.78%
(85.28%)		 14.73%
(71.96%)		 18.99%
(105.82%)		 --
(--)		 12.63%
(54.38%)		 13.65%
(83.88%)		 30.45%
(78.48%)
馬連 10.11%
(66.30%)		 9.00%
(70.19%)		 11.10%
(61.61%)		 12.36%
(75.96%)		 20.38%
(76.75%)		 10.23%
(53.47%)		 9.17%
(70.15%)		 23.64%
(78.44%)
ワイド 24.52%
(74.88%)		 22.54%
(69.95%)		 26.79%
(80.83%)		 21.35%
(62.58%)		 40.76%
(75.67%)		 26.32%
(69.32%)		 22.43%
(76.88%)		 46.09%
(76.51%)
馬単 5.67%
(54.83%)		 5.01%
(60.81%)		 6.36%
(49.12%)		 5.62%
(48.54%)		 10.83%
(62.80%)		 6.32%
(56.00%)		 4.98%
(53.69%)		 23.64%
(75.88%)
三連複 6.93%
(105.48%)		 6.10%
(124.95%)		 7.96%
(91.03%)		 4.49%
(27.64%)		 11.46%
(51.46%)		 7.67%
(66.00%)		 6.26%
(124.90%)		 16.32%
(71.85%)
三連単 1.49%
(68.42%)		 0.94%
(69.19%)		 2.09%
(70.34%)		 1.12%
(30.67%)		 1.91%
(23.76%)		 1.65%
(41.28%)		 1.40%
(82.44%)		 16.32%
(70.12%)
総合 56.97%
(74.78%)		 55.24%
(78.95%)		 58.33%
(71.45%)		 62.92%
(62.19%)		 66.88%
(64.88%)		 60.90%
(61.63%)		 54.64%
(79.89%)		 89.89%
(73.33%)

これじゃ1.0が最強なのかな?

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2026/10/26

L2Regularization追加で

既に走破タイム学習や相対タイム学習に導入済みだったけど、ランキング学習のみ入れないのは不自然だし、Geminiが入れるべきだというので実装してみた。

NumberOfLeaves: 319
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 150
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
FeatureFraction: 0.75
L2Regularization: 1.000
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

これ10回試すと

[Loop 9] NDCG@1 = 0.7667
[Loop 9] NDCG@3 = 0.7730
[Loop 9] NDCG@5 = 0.7886
[Loop 9] NDCG@10 = 0.8494

2,610R 1点 芝(1,278R) ダート(1,243R) 障害(89R) 8頭以下(157R) 9～12頭(665R) 13頭以上(1,788R) 多点
単勝 25.21%
(73.46%)		 24.96%
(75.63%)		 25.66%
(72.43%)		 22.47%
(56.74%)		 32.48%
(68.15%)		 27.82%
(72.68%)		 23.60%
(74.22%)		 55.48%
(75.63%)
複勝 54.90%
(77.16%)		 52.90%
(75.47%)		 56.72%
(78.90%)		 58.43%
(77.19%)		 63.06%
(85.61%)		 59.40%
(75.92%)		 52.52%
(76.88%)		 89.62%
(80.48%)
枠連 14.48%
(81.73%)		 13.51%
(89.50%)		 15.16%
(74.27%)		 17.72%
(86.20%)		 --
(--)		 14.44%
(66.24%)		 13.65%
(82.69%)		 30.54%
(78.29%)
馬連 10.54%
(68.56%)		 9.70%
(74.37%)		 11.26%
(62.55%)		 12.36%
(68.99%)		 21.66%
(80.00%)		 11.73%
(64.74%)		 9.12%
(68.97%)		 23.56%
(72.53%)
ワイド 24.52%
(74.24%)		 23.08%
(71.63%)		 26.07%
(76.54%)		 23.60%
(79.66%)		 39.49%
(69.43%)		 27.82%
(73.70%)		 21.98%
(74.87%)		 46.28%
(75.56%)
馬単 6.21%
(62.91%)		 5.56%
(64.22%)		 6.92%
(62.17%)		 5.62%
(54.49%)		 12.74%
(72.10%)		 7.37%
(70.05%)		 5.20%
(59.45%)		 23.56%
(70.08%)
三連複 6.90%
(105.38%)		 6.49%
(129.29%)		 7.48%
(86.37%)		 4.49%
(27.64%)		 12.74%
(72.10%)		 7.67%
(60.32%)		 6.10%
(125.07%)		 16.82%
(74.24%)
三連単 2.03%
(135.03%)		 1.56%
(102.03%)		 2.57%
(176.43%)		 1.12%
(30.67%)		 3.18%
(93.82%)		 2.56%
(126.23%)		 1.73%
(141.92%)		 16.82%
(70.31%)
総合 56.90%
(84.85%)		 55.48%
(85.19%)		 58.25%
(86.28%)		 58.43%
(59.83%)		 66.24%
(77.32%)		 60.15%
(76.23%)		 54.87%
(88.01%)		 89.81%
(72.44%)

なんか久しぶりに単勝が25%超えてきた。実はこの前にL2=0.5でも10回試したが、その時は

[Loop 3] NDCG@1 = 0.7667
[Loop 3] NDCG@3 = 0.7733
[Loop 3] NDCG@5 = 0.7887
[Loop 3] NDCG@10 = 0.8495

数値的には上だったのに

2,610R 1点 芝(1,278R) ダート(1,243R) 障害(89R) 8頭以下(157R) 9～12頭(665R) 13頭以上(1,788R) 多点
単勝 24.29%
(71.26%)		 23.79%
(71.73%)		 24.86%
(71.43%)		 23.60%
(62.02%)		 33.12%
(69.24%)		 27.82%
(72.86%)		 22.20%
(70.84%)		 55.36%
(76.38%)
複勝 54.90%
(78.10%)		 51.72%
(74.89%)		 57.76%
(81.18%)		 60.67%
(81.01%)		 64.33%
(91.72%)		 59.55%
(76.35%)		 52.35%
(77.55%)		 89.92%
(81.82%)
枠連 14.01%
(78.64%)		 13.05%
(90.02%)		 14.65%
(67.43%)		 17.72%
(89.62%)		 --
(--)		 13.83%
(62.51%)		 13.26%
(80.02%)		 29.90%
(75.53%)
馬連 10.46%
(68.40%)		 9.94%
(79.83%)		 10.94%
(57.06%)		 11.24%
(62.58%)		 22.29%
(83.25%)		 11.28%
(60.32%)		 9.12%
(70.10%)		 24.02%
(79.29%)
ワイド 24.41%
(73.16%)		 23.24%
(74.00%)		 25.82%
(73.11%)		 21.35%
(61.80%)		 42.04%
(79.17%)		 27.52%
(72.05%)		 21.70%
(73.05%)		 47.05%
(78.64%)
馬単 5.48%
(52.23%)		 4.85%
(54.19%)		 6.19%
(51.23%)		 4.49%
(37.98%)		 12.10%
(71.21%)		 6.92%
(58.57%)		 4.36%
(48.20%)		 24.02%
(76.78%)
三連複 7.16%
(110.92%)		 6.73%
(136.72%)		 7.80%
(90.35%)		 4.49%
(27.64%)		 14.65%
(95.29%)		 7.67%
(65.58%)		 6.32%
(129.15%)		 16.74%
(72.09%)
三連単 1.69%
(69.59%)		 1.25%
(59.54%)		 2.17%
(82.70%)		 1.12%
(30.67%)		 2.55%
(111.21%)		 1.95%
(48.17%)		 1.51%
(73.90%)		 16.74%
(70.00%)
総合 56.86%
(75.24%)		 54.15%
(79.93%)		 59.37%
(71.84%)		 60.67%
(56.20%)		 66.88%
(85.87%)		 60.15%
(64.55%)		 54.75%
(77.85%)		 90.08%
(73.53%)

実検証では低かった。って事で、L2=1.5を40回スタートして寝ます(笑)

追記 2026.10.27 5:10

最適はNDCG@1とNDCG@10がトップの

[Loop 21] NDCG@1 = 0.7678
[Loop 21] NDCG@3 = 0.7724
[Loop 21] NDCG@5 = 0.7887
[Loop 21] NDCG@10 = 0.8495

2,610R 1点 芝(1,278R) ダート(1,243R) 障害(89R) 8頭以下(157R) 9～12頭(665R) 13頭以上(1,788R) 多点
単勝 25.13%
(74.70%)		 24.33%
(74.86%)		 25.99%
(75.24%)		 24.72%
(64.83%)		 34.39%
(74.01%)		 27.97%
(73.22%)		 23.27%
(75.31%)		 56.13%
(77.27%)
複勝 55.75%
(79.40%)		 53.05%
(77.36%)		 58.00%
(81.20%)		 62.92%
(83.60%)		 66.24%
(95.92%)		 59.70%
(76.48%)		 53.36%
(79.03%)		 90.04%
(81.93%)
枠連 14.35%
(79.71%)		 13.24%
(85.97%)		 14.90%
(71.27%)		 21.52%
(119.62%)		 --
(--)		 13.68%
(58.84%)		 13.76%
(82.79%)		 31.26%
(81.64%)
馬連 10.38%
(65.49%)		 9.62%
(71.72%)		 10.86%
(57.35%)		 14.61%
(89.89%)		 22.29%
(84.97%)		 11.43%
(58.72%)		 8.95%
(66.30%)		 24.48%
(78.60%)
ワイド 24.75%
(73.84%)		 23.40%
(71.42%)		 26.23%
(75.95%)		 23.60%
(79.21%)		 43.95%
(84.90%)		 26.92%
(71.35%)		 22.26%
(73.80%)		 46.97%
(77.46%)
馬単 5.52%
(53.33%)		 4.93%
(54.77%)		 5.95%
(48.99%)		 7.87%
(93.48%)		 12.10%
(80.13%)		 6.92%
(58.39%)		 4.42%
(49.10%)		 24.48%
(75.24%)
三連複 7.32%
(110.67%)		 6.89%
(132.57%)		 7.88%
(88.94%)		 5.62%
(99.78%)		 14.01%
(65.22%)		 8.42%
(81.08%)		 6.32%
(125.67%)		 16.90%
(73.74%)
三連単 1.49%
(80.16%)		 1.10%
(39.16%)		 1.93%
(125.85%)		 1.12%
(30.67%)		 1.91%
(24.14%)		 2.26%
(60.03%)		 1.17%
(92.56%)		 16.90%
(71.26%)
総合 57.59%
(77.13%)		 55.40%
(75.79%)		 59.45%
(78.14%)		 62.92%
(82.11%)		 68.79%
(72.76%)		 60.15%
(67.27%)		 55.65%
(80.57%)		 90.27%
(74.36%)

NDCG@3がトップの

[Loop 32] NDCG@1 = 0.7658
[Loop 32] NDCG@3 = 0.7728
[Loop 32] NDCG@5 = 0.7886
[Loop 32] NDCG@10 = 0.8492

2,610R 1点 芝(1,278R) ダート(1,243R) 障害(89R) 8頭以下(157R) 9～12頭(665R) 13頭以上(1,788R) 多点
単勝 24.52%
(73.82%)		 24.41%
(77.75%)		 24.86%
(71.27%)		 21.35%
(53.03%)		 33.76%
(72.10%)		 27.97%
(74.93%)		 22.43%
(73.56%)		 55.52%
(75.90%)
複勝 55.02%
(78.76%)		 52.74%
(77.43%)		 56.88%
(79.93%)		 61.80%
(81.57%)		 64.97%
(93.44%)		 60.45%
(78.45%)		 52.13%
(77.59%)		 89.73%
(81.50%)
枠連 14.31%
(80.86%)		 13.14%
(90.30%)		 14.99%
(70.04%)		 20.25%
(112.41%)		 --
(--)		 13.38%
(65.20%)		 13.81%
(81.93%)		 30.75%
(77.72%)
馬連 10.42%
(67.42%)		 9.39%
(75.13%)		 11.18%
(58.05%)		 14.61%
(87.53%)		 20.38%
(78.41%)		 11.28%
(65.50%)		 9.23%
(67.16%)		 24.02%
(78.20%)
ワイド 24.18%
(72.66%)		 22.69%
(71.90%)		 25.66%
(73.55%)		 24.72%
(71.01%)		 40.13%
(76.11%)		 26.92%
(71.65%)		 21.76%
(72.72%)		 46.44%
(77.01%)
馬単 5.59%
(59.30%)		 4.93%
(58.90%)		 6.28%
(60.03%)		 5.62%
(54.72%)		 12.10%
(73.76%)		 6.17%
(62.30%)		 4.81%
(56.91%)		 24.02%
(75.45%)
三連複 7.09%
(107.79%)		 6.73%
(129.70%)		 7.56%
(85.84%)		 5.62%
(99.78%)		 14.65%
(72.74%)		 7.67%
(69.56%)		 6.21%
(125.09%)		 16.13%
(69.43%)
三連単 1.80%
(122.26%)		 1.64%
(97.79%)		 2.01%
(153.97%)		 1.12%
(30.67%)		 3.18%
(51.59%)		 2.41%
(111.47%)		 1.45%
(132.48%)		 16.13%
(67.15%)
総合 57.13%
(82.88%)		 55.24%
(84.76%)		 58.73%
(81.66%)		 61.80%
(73.29%)		 67.52%
(74.02%)		 61.20%
(74.89%)		 54.70%
(85.93%)		 89.85%
(71.63%)

NDCG@5がトップの

[Loop 6] NDCG@1 = 0.7667
[Loop 6] NDCG@3 = 0.7727
[Loop 6] NDCG@5 = 0.7888
[Loop 6] NDCG@10 = 0.8494

2,610R 1点 芝(1,278R) ダート(1,243R) 障害(89R) 8頭以下(157R) 9～12頭(665R) 13頭以上(1,788R) 多点
単勝 24.52%
(71.32%)		 23.63%
(72.05%)		 25.50%
(71.24%)		 23.60%
(61.91%)		 31.21%
(64.20%)		 26.62%
(67.94%)		 23.15%
(73.20%)		 54.90%
(75.13%)
複勝 55.25%
(77.85%)		 52.50%
(75.38%)		 57.36%
(79.61%)		 65.17%
(88.88%)		 61.15%
(81.21%)		 60.15%
(77.16%)		 52.91%
(77.82%)		 89.62%
(80.75%)
枠連 14.18%
(80.11%)		 13.42%
(91.68%)		 14.56%
(67.96%)		 18.99%
(102.41%)		 --
(--)		 12.93%
(58.48%)		 13.81%
(83.45%)		 30.32%
(77.89%)
馬連 10.38%
(69.96%)		 9.86%
(78.51%)		 10.86%
(61.68%)		 11.24%
(62.81%)		 22.29%
(84.46%)		 10.38%
(55.71%)		 9.34%
(73.98%)		 23.56%
(74.22%)
ワイド 24.83%
(76.28%)		 23.47%
(74.26%)		 26.39%
(79.07%)		 22.47%
(66.40%)		 40.13%
(70.76%)		 27.22%
(72.18%)		 22.60%
(78.29%)		 46.25%
(74.94%)
馬単 5.75%
(59.02%)		 5.16%
(63.93%)		 6.36%
(54.29%)		 5.62%
(54.72%)		 12.74%
(74.90%)		 6.02%
(50.05%)		 5.03%
(60.97%)		 23.56%
(71.87%)
三連複 6.74%
(103.61%)		 6.34%
(128.04%)		 7.24%
(83.50%)		 5.62%
(33.71%)		 12.10%
(53.63%)		 7.37%
(59.62%)		 6.04%
(124.36%)		 16.70%
(75.62%)
三連単 1.65%
(75.19%)		 1.33%
(89.41%)		 2.01%
(63.75%)		 1.12%
(30.67%)		 2.55%
(34.33%)		 1.95%
(45.91%)		 1.45%
(89.66%)		 16.70%
(73.78%)
総合 57.20%
(76.62%)		 55.01%
(84.01%)		 58.89%
(70.15%)		 65.17%
(62.12%)		 64.33%
(66.21%)		 60.90%
(60.88%)		 55.20%
(82.72%)		 89.69%
(74.52%)

つまり、どれもL2=1.0を超えない^^; 今晩はL2=1.25あたりを攻めてみるかな。

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更に

NumberOfLeaves: 511
NumberOfIterations: 4000
LearningRate: 0.005
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 255
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 150
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
FeatureFraction: 0.75
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

これ20回スタートして寝た。最適は

[Loop 9] NDCG@1 = 0.7667
[Loop 9] NDCG@3 = 0.7735
[Loop 9] NDCG@5 = 0.7895
[Loop 9] NDCG@10 = 0.8498

2,610R 1点 芝(1,278R) ダート(1,243R) 障害(89R) 8頭以下(157R) 9～12頭(665R) 13頭以上(1,788R) 多点
単勝 24.56%
(73.47%)		 24.49%
(76.02%)		 24.94%
(72.60%)		 20.22%
(49.10%)		 32.48%
(65.54%)		 26.92%
(68.96%)		 22.99%
(75.84%)		 55.67%
(76.39%)
複勝 55.13%
(78.55%)		 53.05%
(77.52%)		 56.80%
(79.32%)		 61.80%
(82.47%)		 61.15%
(77.13%)		 60.15%
(77.85%)		 52.74%
(78.93%)		 89.73%
(81.68%)
枠連 13.76%
(73.34%)		 12.68%
(83.58%)		 14.39%
(61.96%)		 18.99%
(102.41%)		 --
(--)		 13.23%
(56.08%)		 13.14%
(75.45%)		 30.20%
(75.27%)
馬連 10.15%
(63.67%)		 9.31%
(70.53%)		 10.78%
(55.27%)		 13.48%
(82.36%)		 21.66%
(81.27%)		 10.68%
(54.83%)		 8.95%
(65.41%)		 23.87%
(76.31%)
ワイド 24.44%
(73.67%)		 23.08%
(72.22%)		 25.91%
(75.54%)		 23.60%
(68.31%)		 42.04%
(75.22%)		 27.07%
(72.27%)		 21.92%
(74.05%)		 47.20%
(78.67%)
馬単 5.59%
(53.77%)		 4.85%
(51.88%)		 6.44%
(56.43%)		 4.49%
(43.93%)		 12.10%
(68.47%)		 6.62%
(59.23%)		 4.64%
(50.45%)		 23.87%
(73.75%)
三連複 6.97%
(108.15%)		 6.73%
(136.04%)		 7.40%
(85.23%)		 4.49%
(27.64%)		 14.01%
(105.48%)		 7.22%
(61.22%)		 6.26%
(125.83%)		 17.43%
(81.10%)
三連単 1.69%
(103.69%)		 1.41%
(72.53%)		 2.01%
(140.97%)		 1.12%
(30.67%)		 3.18%
(176.50%)		 1.80%
(54.14%)		 1.51%
(115.73%)		 17.43%
(79.55%)
総合 57.24%
(78.60%)		 55.71%
(79.97%)		 58.49%
(78.52%)		 61.80%
(60.27%)		 64.97%
(92.80%)		 60.90%
(63.07%)		 55.20%
(82.71%)		 89.96%
(78.42%)

後はloop2とloop14辺りが続いた感じかな。流石にこの設定ではモデルも44.5MBと大きくなった。モデルが大きくなった割にはそこまで改善されてないのは残念。まあ、これはこれでサンプルとしてありだが、採用はしないかな。

今日仕事から戻ったらL2追加してるのでそれを試します。

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2026/10/25

ここまでのパラメーター調査を元に

NumberOfLeaves: 319
NumberOfIterations: 4000
LearningRate: 0.005
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 150
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
FeatureFraction: 0.75
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

これを10回やるのに2時間41分程度。

繰り返し (Loop) NDCG@1 NDCG@3 NDCG@5 NDCG@10 学習時間
1回目 0.7654 0.7729 0.7888 0.8495 14分38秒
2回目 ★ 0.7671 0.7735 0.7894 0.8497 14分29秒
3回目 0.7659 0.7727 0.7892 0.8495 14分16秒
4回目 0.7662 0.7726 0.7886 0.8494 13分33秒
5回目 ★ 0.7664 0.7734 0.7890 0.8498 14分03秒
6回目 0.7648 0.7726 0.7889 0.8493 14分17秒
7回目 0.7652 0.7726 0.7888 0.8494 14分51秒
8回目 0.7660 0.7725 0.7887 0.8494 14分53秒
9回目 0.7656 0.7726 0.7886 0.8495 14分25秒
10回目 0.7657 0.7727 0.7887 0.8495 13分39秒

最適は

[Loop 2] NDCG@1 = 0.7671
[Loop 2] NDCG@3 = 0.7735
[Loop 2] NDCG@5 = 0.7894
[Loop 2] NDCG@10 = 0.8497

2,610R 1点 芝(1,278R) ダート(1,243R) 障害(89R) 8頭以下(157R) 9～12頭(665R) 13頭以上(1,788R) 多点
単勝 24.56%
(73.00%)		 24.26%
(75.58%)		 25.18%
(72.07%)		 20.22%
(49.10%)		 34.39%
(71.97%)		 27.07%
(70.89%)		 22.76%
(73.88%)		 55.56%
(75.75%)
複勝 55.17%
(78.20%)		 52.74%
(76.20%)		 57.36%
(80.31%)		 59.55%
(77.64%)		 64.97%
(87.58%)		 58.80%
(75.37%)		 52.96%
(78.43%)		 89.73%
(81.43%)
枠連 13.97%
(77.45%)		 13.05%
(84.74%)		 14.65%
(70.49%)		 16.46%
(81.01%)		 --
(--)		 13.08%
(55.31%)		 13.48%
(81.14%)		 30.58%
(77.43%)
馬連 10.04%
(64.10%)		 9.31%
(70.02%)		 10.78%
(58.64%)		 10.11%
(55.28%)		 21.02%
(79.55%)		 10.83%
(54.89%)		 8.78%
(66.16%)		 24.06%
(79.50%)
ワイド 24.41%
(74.13%)		 23.24%
(72.80%)		 25.82%
(75.42%)		 21.35%
(75.06%)		 40.76%
(75.67%)		 26.77%
(71.47%)		 22.09%
(74.98%)		 46.93%
(78.51%)
馬単 5.59%
(49.83%)		 5.01%
(53.15%)		 6.36%
(47.62%)		 3.37%
(33.03%)		 12.74%
(72.80%)		 6.77%
(58.12%)		 4.53%
(44.73%)		 24.06%
(76.44%)
三連複 7.16%
(112.95%)		 6.65%
(135.86%)		 7.80%
(90.33%)		 5.62%
(99.78%)		 13.38%
(88.09%)		 8.42%
(87.19%)		 6.15%
(124.71%)		 16.70%
(73.04%)
三連単 1.61%
(58.63%)		 1.02%
(46.88%)		 2.25%
(72.72%)		 1.12%
(30.67%)		 1.91%
(106.43%)		 2.26%
(61.49%)		 1.34%
(53.37%)		 16.70%
(71.53%)
総合 57.20%
(73.49%)		 55.40%
(76.75%)		 58.89%
(70.95%)		 59.55%
(62.44%)		 68.15%
(83.16%)		 59.40%
(66.84%)		 55.43%
(74.67%)		 89.89%
(74.37%)

少しだけ改善はしてるけど^^; 次点は

[Loop 5] NDCG@1 = 0.7664
[Loop 5] NDCG@3 = 0.7734
[Loop 5] NDCG@5 = 0.7890
[Loop 5] NDCG@10 = 0.8498

2,610R 1点 芝(1,278R) ダート(1,243R) 障害(89R) 8頭以下(157R) 9～12頭(665R) 13頭以上(1,788R) 多点
単勝 24.83%
(72.61%)		 24.41%
(72.68%)		 25.42%
(73.66%)		 22.47%
(56.74%)		 33.76%
(70.64%)		 27.37%
(70.72%)		 23.10%
(73.48%)		 55.33%
(75.35%)
複勝 55.48%
(78.80%)		 53.05%
(76.58%)		 57.52%
(80.76%)		 61.80%
(83.26%)		 64.33%
(86.56%)		 59.40%
(75.98%)		 53.24%
(79.16%)		 89.23%
(80.76%)
枠連 13.80%
(76.32%)		 12.68%
(85.08%)		 14.39%
(66.16%)		 20.25%
(107.47%)		 --
(--)		 13.38%
(57.65%)		 13.14%
(78.78%)		 30.32%
(76.02%)
馬連 10.15%
(66.19%)		 9.47%
(73.55%)		 10.62%
(57.09%)		 13.48%
(87.53%)		 20.38%
(78.47%)		 10.98%
(57.55%)		 8.95%
(68.32%)		 23.87%
(78.84%)
ワイド 24.06%
(71.93%)		 22.77%
(69.90%)		 25.50%
(74.25%)		 22.47%
(68.76%)		 40.13%
(74.71%)		 26.77%
(70.26%)		 21.64%
(72.31%)		 46.78%
(77.98%)
馬単 5.67%
(58.59%)		 5.16%
(63.82%)		 6.19%
(51.88%)		 5.62%
(77.08%)		 12.10%
(74.46%)		 6.32%
(57.56%)		 4.87%
(57.57%)		 23.87%
(76.06%)
三連複 7.05%
(108.39%)		 6.57%
(133.58%)		 7.72%
(88.28%)		 4.49%
(27.64%)		 14.01%
(105.48%)		 7.97%
(65.13%)		 6.10%
(124.74%)		 16.67%
(71.57%)
三連単 1.76%
(115.96%)		 1.49%
(106.87%)		 2.09%
(131.42%)		 1.12%
(30.67%)		 3.18%
(176.50%)		 1.95%
(50.29%)		 1.57%
(135.07%)		 16.67%
(67.83%)
総合 57.20%
(81.16%)		 55.16%
(85.26%)		 58.97%
(78.01%)		 61.80%
(66.82%)		 67.52%
(95.26%)		 60.00%
(63.14%)		 55.26%
(86.18%)		 89.43%
(72.15%)

なるほど! 次点ながら流石にNDCG@10が最適なモデルなので三連系が抜群に良い感じだ。

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MaximumBinCountPerFeatureの調査

MaximumBinCountPerFeature NDCG@1 NDCG@3 NDCG@5 NDCG@10 所要時間
31 0.7651 0.7726 0.7886 0.8494 00:08:42
47 0.7652 0.7721 0.7885 0.8492 00:08:59
63 0.7659 0.7723 0.7886 0.8494 00:08:21
79 0.7653 0.7725 0.7884 0.8494 00:08:34
95 0.7646 0.7720 0.7885 0.8493 00:08:24
111 0.7656 0.7729 0.7888 0.8495 00:08:48
127 0.7664 0.7732 0.7890 0.8496 00:09:37

精度アップが微量な割に学習時間が伸びてるので元のままでも良いのではってGeminiは言うが、少しでも精度アップしたいからね。

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