学習時のCSVデータの使い方

退院後帰宅して早速PCに向かって相変わらずなんですが、Geminiがふと、学習データって一定割合で分割して学習用(train)と検証用(test)に分けて行われるのは知ってました。で、まあ、これって基本8:2とかでランダムに分割されて学習し検証されるんです。しかし、Gemini曰く、時系列の学習データをランダムに分割すると未来のデータを基に過去の予測するパターンも出てチートしてる事が指数に過剰に良く出る事があるから時系列的に過去と未来で学習と検証するべきですって話になり、その修正して再学習させてます。

まあ、取り掛かったのは当然今やってたランキング学習になんですが、これ、実際にはこれまでの回帰モデルにも言える事なので全モデルの学習しなおしになりそうorz

しかし、良いのか悪いのか、予測精度が落ちてる。これまで単勝27%、複勝58%、ワイド27%程度まで的中率が来てたのに、一律に2%程度落ち込んでるのでパラメーター調整からまた始めてます。

NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 5000
LearningRate: 0.007
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 120
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～250 = 0点, 251～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

これを20回でスタートさせて今晩は寝ます。明日は久しぶりに出勤するので早めにね。これ単純に1回15～18分程度掛かるので6時間程度かかる筈で、朝4時頃に終わる予定。

[Loop 1] NDCG@1 = 0.7673
[Loop 1] NDCG@3 = 0.7747
[Loop 1] NDCG@5 = 0.7906
[Loop 1] NDCG@10 = 0.8511

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	25.96% (80.43%)	25.46% (79.42%)	26.12% (80.35%)	30.83% (95.58%)	38.81% (94.98%)	27.69% (85.97%)	24.23% (77.26%)	55.46% (78.15%)
複勝	56.64% (84.31%)	56.78% (83.76%)	55.95% (84.77%)	64.17% (85.83%)	72.15% (90.05%)	61.93% (86.29%)	53.48% (83.14%)	88.08% (82.56%)
枠連	14.63% (78.57%)	14.05% (83.95%)	14.68% (71.57%)	22.22% (113.23%)	-- (--)	16.81% (81.90%)	12.98% (72.47%)	30.37% (77.97%)
馬連	11.72% (78.36%)	11.66% (80.31%)	11.36% (75.26%)	17.50% (93.50%)	23.74% (75.66%)	13.47% (70.06%)	10.05% (81.38%)	24.60% (74.14%)
ワイド	25.56% (80.42%)	25.93% (80.65%)	24.79% (80.34%)	30.83% (78.17%)	48.86% (92.47%)	30.28% (79.16%)	21.88% (79.75%)	46.74% (79.53%)
馬単	6.51% (75.95%)	6.16% (72.31%)	6.68% (80.58%)	9.17% (63.67%)	11.87% (76.07%)	7.17% (67.64%)	5.81% (78.71%)	24.60% (70.69%)
三連複	6.31% (72.07%)	6.93% (59.05%)	5.65% (86.99%)	6.67% (50.58%)	18.72% (82.88%)	9.15% (75.51%)	4.24% (69.95%)	15.05% (68.96%)
三連単	1.48% (73.92%)	1.72% (70.46%)	1.28% (78.78%)	0.83% (56.08%)	5.02% (155.75%)	1.85% (39.25%)	1.03% (78.10%)	15.05% (65.91%)
総合	57.71% (78.00%)	57.79% (76.08%)	57.11% (79.88%)	65.00% (78.83%)	76.26% (95.41%)	62.67% (73.22%)	54.39% (77.59%)	88.36% (70.51%)

こんな感じでこれまで以上に低調^^;

追記 2026.8.28 5:32

[Loop 4] NDCG@1 = 0.7695
[Loop 4] NDCG@3 = 0.7752
[Loop 4] NDCG@5 = 0.7906
[Loop 4] NDCG@10 = 0.8513

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	25.67% (79.83%)	25.22% (78.70%)	25.76% (79.76%)	30.83% (96.67%)	36.99% (91.83%)	27.32% (83.87%)	24.10% (77.40%)	55.20% (77.20%)
複勝	56.56% (83.40%)	56.72% (83.78%)	55.89% (82.83%)	63.33% (85.67%)	68.49% (84.84%)	62.55% (87.11%)	53.48% (82.03%)	88.57% (82.10%)
枠連	14.31% (75.84%)	13.84% (80.94%)	14.17% (68.08%)	23.23% (126.77%)	-- (--)	16.32% (77.65%)	12.73% (70.43%)	30.05% (78.07%)
馬連	11.26% (72.29%)	11.19% (75.95%)	10.94% (66.45%)	16.67% (100.83%)	22.37% (70.00%)	13.10% (76.11%)	9.64% (71.22%)	24.17% (70.46%)
ワイド	25.27% (78.95%)	25.58% (79.93%)	24.48% (77.50%)	31.67% (85.08%)	47.03% (87.63%)	30.53% (83.67%)	21.55% (76.60%)	46.57% (76.77%)
馬単	5.85% (62.92%)	5.51% (65.67%)	5.77% (56.21%)	11.67% (116.42%)	11.42% (76.39%)	6.67% (72.99%)	5.07% (58.35%)	24.17% (68.33%)
三連複	5.88% (65.22%)	6.34% (54.70%)	5.41% (77.12%)	5.83% (50.00%)	17.35% (78.40%)	8.53% (81.61%)	3.96% (58.56%)	15.02% (65.71%)
三連単	1.19% (42.81%)	1.42% (55.35%)	0.97% (28.98%)	0.83% (56.08%)	3.65% (138.13%)	1.98% (50.79%)	0.70% (31.55%)	15.02% (63.95%)
総合	57.66% (70.08%)	57.84% (71.68%)	56.93% (67.11%)	65.00% (88.86%)	73.06% (89.60%)	63.29% (76.72%)	54.39% (65.77%)	88.86% (68.50%)

あまり伸びなかった。

[Loop 6] NDCG@1 = 0.7685
[Loop 6] NDCG@3 = 0.7751
[Loop 6] NDCG@5 = 0.7908
[Loop 6] NDCG@10 = 0.8512

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	25.90% (80.56%)	25.16% (75.28%)	26.37% (84.92%)	30.00% (95.00%)	37.90% (91.78%)	27.44% (79.54%)	24.31% (79.88%)	55.11% (77.29%)
複勝	56.85% (84.30%)	57.08% (83.58%)	56.20% (84.99%)	62.50% (84.92%)	71.23% (88.68%)	61.80% (84.71%)	53.89% (83.77%)	88.25% (81.98%)
枠連	14.60% (77.30%)	13.91% (80.37%)	14.74% (71.65%)	22.22% (123.64%)	-- (--)	16.44% (76.61%)	13.06% (72.63%)	30.08% (77.19%)
馬連	11.64% (76.90%)	11.72% (79.50%)	11.24% (72.84%)	15.83% (96.08%)	25.57% (80.87%)	13.23% (72.87%)	9.85% (77.89%)	24.40% (69.73%)
ワイド	25.24% (78.13%)	25.52% (76.61%)	24.48% (78.97%)	31.67% (88.00%)	48.40% (89.63%)	30.16% (78.06%)	21.51% (77.12%)	45.93% (77.11%)
馬単	6.22% (70.46%)	5.86% (65.17%)	6.32% (74.01%)	10.00% (96.33%)	13.70% (85.75%)	6.92% (73.15%)	5.32% (68.19%)	24.40% (66.98%)
三連複	6.25% (68.89%)	6.87% (59.50%)	5.53% (78.76%)	7.50% (65.50%)	17.35% (77.53%)	9.77% (92.06%)	4.08% (60.38%)	15.02% (64.63%)
三連単	1.39% (49.79%)	1.78% (62.73%)	0.97% (24.33%)	1.67% (216.75%)	5.02% (157.21%)	2.10% (74.87%)	0.82% (31.73%)	15.02% (63.43%)
総合	57.89% (73.24%)	58.08% (72.68%)	57.17% (71.31%)	65.00% (107.93%)	75.34% (95.92%)	62.55% (78.98%)	54.76% (68.95%)	88.51% (67.92%)

NDCG@5の最高値で選択した。にしても全然ダメだな。

大腸の憩室炎

今週月曜から盆休み明けで仕事再開して、火曜は筋肉痛が酷く、にしても腹筋の筋肉痛はこれまで無いのにとは思いながら、頑張って残業もして、帰宅して夕食は完食は出来ず、さっさと風呂入って寝る。水曜も午前中の仕事は済ませて、昼休憩でも腹ってか横腹が痛いのは、これ筋肉痛？って思いながら午後の仕事再開するけど、どう考えても筋肉痛に思えなくて、上長にその旨伝えて早退。

病院で症状説明すると消化器内科は午後休診日だからって整形外科に。レントゲン撮って、痛み止めは処方するけど内科も診てもらう？って確認され、当然お願いして、今度はCTとレントゲンでやっとわかったらしく、「入院出来ますか？」って事で1週間程度の入院という事で、本日4日目。来週は退院出来ると信じてますが、PCの無い生活は辛い🥵

脱SafeArray(JVGetsの安全な利用法)

JV-Linkの64bit版対応時にこれまでのJVGets時の対処でSafeArrayを使っている部分がエラーだしたので、その対応色々と試してSafeArray無しで行ける方法を見つけて対応してたんですが、そもそもこれって64bitでなきゃ出来ない訳じゃないだろうって思って32bitでもSafeArray無しで行けるか、ざっくりコード修正してフルセットアップ実行中。

Visual Studioのデバッグモードでフルセットアップ開始して既に3割以上来てますが、じわじわ使用メモリ増えてる感じはしますけど、メモリリークとか例のJVGetsで読み出しの度に解放ってのが出来てないで増えている訳ではなく、単にプロセスが進むにつれて増えてるだけな気がしてます。なので、この方法は問題ないって判断にします。

これ、解放がしっかり出来てないとフルセットアップ中に死ぬのかな?

既に半分以上過ぎた状態でこんなものなんですが、ああ、これSafeArrayの時と比べればわかりやすかったかもだが、もう、また戻して試すのは辛いorz

Copilotにちょっと相談してると、今のやり方はSafeArrayを使わない方式ではなく、「SafeArray を .NET が自動で byte[] に変換する方式」だと言われた(笑) まあ、でも、安全な使い方だって言われたから良いか。

    public static int SafeJVGets(out byte[] bBuff, out string strFileName, int iBuffSize = 105000)
    {
        bBuff = null;
        object objBuff = new byte[0];

        int iReturnCode = SaraD.clsJVLink.JVGets(ref objBuff, iBuffSize, out strFileName);

        if (iReturnCode > 0 && objBuff is byte[] returnedBytes)
        {
            if (returnedBytes.Length == iReturnCode)
            {
                bBuff = returnedBytes;
            }
            else
            {
                bBuff = new byte[iReturnCode];
                Array.Copy(returnedBytes, bBuff, iReturnCode);
            }
        }

        return iReturnCode;
    }

これが実際に使っている今のコードです。

随分時間が掛かったのは、裏でランキング学習が走ってるのとざっくりなコードでまだ余分な部分があるデバッグモードだからなのかは分からないが問題なくフルセットアップ出来るので採用します。これで余分なSafeArray関連のDLL周りの宣言不要になるしスッキリ出来る感じ。

追記 2026.8.16 21:43
やはりちょっと時間掛かってるのでCopilotに確認すると修正案って

    public static int SafeJVGets(out byte[] bBuff, out string strFileName, int iBuffSize = 105000)
    {
        object objBuff = new byte[0];

        int iReturnCode = SaraD.clsJVLink.JVGets(ref objBuff, iBuffSize, out strFileName);

        if (iReturnCode > 0 && objBuff is byte[] returnedBytes)
        {
            // ★高速化ポイント：論理長に揃える（昔の Marshal.Copy と同じ動作）
            if (returnedBytes.Length != iReturnCode)
            {
                // returnedBytes が SafeArray の物理長（例：4096）で来た場合、
                // 昔のコードと同じく「論理長 iReturnCode」に揃える
                bBuff = new byte[iReturnCode];
                Array.Copy(returnedBytes, bBuff, iReturnCode);
            }
            else
            {
                // ★ゼロコピー：物理長が論理長と一致している場合はそのまま使う
                bBuff = returnedBytes;
            }
        }
        else
        {
            // EOF or エラー
            bBuff = null;
        }

ほぼ同じ条件下で

10分弱短縮してるので良しとします。

追記 2026.8.17
昨夜上記の修正を32bit版にも適用してあったけど、疲れて本日帰宅後に試しました。昨日はうらでランキング学習とかも動かしてたけど、本日はそれ無しで素でフルセットアップさせました。

35分弱なら十分ですね^^

学習は継続中

やばいなぁ、もうお盆休みも明日までなのに、いや、まあ、64bit対応とかは済んでるけど、未だ学習が目標値に達してない。しかも、昨日散々やってたパラメーターを失念してる。いや、こまめにここにも書いてたけど、あまりにも多いとって昨日は学習はひたすらGeminiとやり取りして済ませてた。こまめにGeminiに報告する事でメモしなくても比較とかしてくれるから便利なんだが、日付変わって「昨日の...」って尋ねても記録してないって(笑)

今朝、ふとJRA-VANの公式回答からJVOpen エラー: -303に対応する(これまでは、こんなエラーがそもそも出ると思ってなかったので考慮してなかった)処理を追加した新たなバージョン(Version 3.4.5)をリリースする作業すませた。それなりのモデルが出てれば添付しようとも思ったが、納得できてないモデル添付しても意味ないので今回は見送った。

ただ、既にこちらは32bit版と64bit版を1つのインストーラーに同胞する方法に決めて、一連の作業は作ったので、今更64bit版が含まれた場合にJRA-VANの変更申請が64bit版のJV-Linkリリースになる、つまり、それまでの間は保留状態って言われても戻すの面倒なので、それまでは変更申請はせずに、サポートサイトで臨時的なリリースのみとなる。

NumberOfLeaves: 223
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 111
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 135
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～250 = 0点, 251～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

今日はMaximumBinCountPerFeatureを少し変えてピークを探ろうかとまずは20回スタート。

そうそうに設定失敗の予感でパラメーター変更。

NumberOfLeaves: 223
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 143
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 135
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～250 = 0点, 251～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

下げてダメなら上げてみます。ダメだったorz

下地探し

今の自宅、セキスイハイムで建て替えて既に３年目なんだけど、全体的には良好です。自分が面倒ってか時間が取れないってかは、まあ、言い訳なんだけど、石膏ボードの壁に何か付けるとかは、セキスイハイムの説明で針で梁の位置確認してってのは理解してた。当初はその昔からやってた手でコンコンと壁叩いて音の変化からある程度の梁の位置を予測して、もらった針で確認する。

いや、実は１年以上前に梁探しのツールを購入してたけど、これがハズレでした😭 まあ、レビューに正直に書いたら返金して頂いたので痛手は無かったのですが、作業は出来ず。まあ、引き渡しから住み始めて、セキスイハイムの方はなにやら磁石使って位置を楽々見つけてるのは知ってたけど、無料で頂いた針はあるので我慢して放置(壁につけたいけど我慢)。

もう、随分前からamazonのwishlistには入れてたんですが、

シンワ測定(Shinwa Sokutei) 下地探し どこ太 Basic 35mm 石膏ボード用の針式の下地探し マグネット付 79025

これ、1,264円で購入しました。

素人でも簡単にまず、マグネットで反応する場所さがして、更に上下に探すと一定の距離で更に反応する場所があり、その線が梁のある部分と分かる。今回したかったのは55mm間隔で垂直に2つの穴があるエアコンのリモコンフォルダーを壁に付ける事。ただ、確かセキスイハイムの説明ではその位置にはビスがあるのでそこを外してって話は覚えていたので位置決め。念の為に、その位置に針を刺して再確認。

まあ、こんな感じにね。

ただ、そもそもインパクトドライバーもあるんだが、失敗恐れて人力でやったんだが、自室とリビングルームで計4本のビスをしめこむのはかなりきついです。Copilot曰く、ドライバーで最初の数周回しこんで、その後にインパクトドライバーに持ち替えれば失敗も少なく楽に行けますよって話なので、次回からはそうしようかと^^

どこがピークか分からない

昨夜のはちと試そうとしてたボーダー値のもう少し引き下げを試してなかったので

NumberOfLeaves: 223
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 150
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～350 = 0点, 351～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

20回で試してみる。

[Loop 7] NDCG@1 = 0.7837
[Loop 7] NDCG@3 = 0.7878
[Loop 7] NDCG@5 = 0.8010
[Loop 7] NDCG@10 = 0.8546

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	26.71% (78.89%)	26.41% (78.43%)	26.91% (78.37%)	28.33% (92.58%)	40.64% (98.49%)	28.31% (84.25%)	24.93% (75.34%)	57.25% (77.99%)
複勝	58.32% (84.21%)	57.61% (82.32%)	58.51% (85.75%)	65.83% (89.75%)	73.06% (91.64%)	64.40% (86.22%)	54.96% (82.88%)	89.58% (83.17%)
枠連	16.00% (86.35%)	15.83% (90.48%)	15.50% (81.17%)	26.26% (109.90%)	-- (--)	18.17% (83.93%)	14.26% (81.68%)	30.89% (76.82%)
馬連	12.79% (86.50%)	12.67% (83.56%)	12.39% (88.91%)	20.00% (94.75%)	23.74% (81.10%)	15.33% (79.86%)	10.96% (89.20%)	25.53% (72.94%)
ワイド	27.41% (87.35%)	28.18% (82.78%)	26.12% (92.07%)	34.17% (86.75%)	51.14% (86.71%)	33.13% (87.38%)	23.36% (87.39%)	49.09% (78.97%)
馬単	7.09% (87.23%)	6.87% (84.77%)	7.29% (90.70%)	7.50% (74.33%)	13.70% (93.15%)	7.54% (72.48%)	6.35% (91.61%)	25.53% (70.37%)
三連複	6.43% (74.56%)	7.64% (77.67%)	5.10% (71.27%)	7.50% (76.08%)	18.72% (76.62%)	9.02% (69.11%)	4.45% (76.20%)	16.32% (69.05%)
三連単	1.42% (58.35%)	1.66% (81.25%)	1.28% (39.11%)	0.00% (0.00%)	4.11% (139.95%)	2.10% (47.29%)	0.95% (54.68%)	16.32% (63.72%)
総合	59.54% (80.35%)	58.79% (82.49%)	59.78% (78.40%)	66.67% (77.31%)	77.63% (95.38%)	64.77% (76.32%)	56.16% (79.87%)	89.90% (69.26%)

[Loop 9] NDCG@1 = 0.7846
[Loop 9] NDCG@3 = 0.7875
[Loop 9] NDCG@5 = 0.8009
[Loop 9] NDCG@10 = 0.8546

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.24% (80.58%)	26.88% (80.31%)	27.52% (79.99%)	28.33% (92.50%)	42.92% (106.30%)	28.18% (81.77%)	25.50% (77.87%)	57.86% (78.73%)
複勝	58.90% (84.91%)	58.44% (83.62%)	59.05% (86.04%)	63.33% (87.42%)	75.34% (96.26%)	63.78% (84.89%)	55.79% (83.89%)	89.64% (83.06%)
枠連	16.13% (84.10%)	16.54% (90.72%)	15.18% (76.81%)	25.25% (105.66%)	-- (--)	17.68% (78.54%)	14.59% (80.61%)	30.63% (77.07%)
馬連	12.68% (79.84%)	13.14% (81.89%)	11.85% (77.37%)	17.50% (84.67%)	23.74% (63.84%)	14.96% (77.11%)	10.92% (82.19%)	24.92% (71.79%)
ワイド	27.24% (89.34%)	28.48% (88.69%)	25.70% (90.40%)	30.83% (83.92%)	52.05% (87.08%)	32.76% (85.40%)	23.16% (90.86%)	49.29% (79.70%)
馬単	6.77% (70.64%)	6.93% (76.77%)	6.56% (63.88%)	7.50% (77.08%)	13.24% (58.90%)	7.54% (73.60%)	5.93% (70.71%)	24.92% (68.63%)
三連複	5.99% (71.52%)	6.93% (63.01%)	4.98% (82.14%)	6.67% (45.75%)	17.81% (68.54%)	8.28% (62.92%)	4.16% (74.66%)	16.12% (66.86%)
三連単	1.39% (47.03%)	1.78% (67.13%)	1.09% (29.83%)	0.00% (0.00%)	4.11% (47.26%)	1.85% (37.79%)	0.99% (50.09%)	16.12% (61.73%)
総合	60.17% (75.88%)	59.74% (78.77%)	60.33% (73.29%)	64.17% (71.37%)	79.00% (75.45%)	64.15% (72.75%)	57.15% (76.36%)	90.04% (67.90%)

[Loop 10] NDCG@1 = 0.7844
[Loop 10] NDCG@3 = 0.7878
[Loop 10] NDCG@5 = 0.8010
[Loop 10] NDCG@10 = 0.8545

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.06% (80.62%)	26.52% (79.31%)	27.52% (80.68%)	28.33% (98.25%)	40.18% (98.13%)	28.31% (83.78%)	25.46% (77.99%)	57.25% (78.02%)
複勝	59.02% (85.50%)	58.97% (84.58%)	58.69% (86.22%)	64.17% (88.58%)	71.23% (89.54%)	64.65% (85.80%)	56.04% (85.03%)	89.84% (83.71%)
枠連	15.80% (84.43%)	15.61% (88.64%)	15.44% (77.59%)	24.24% (133.03%)	-- (--)	17.43% (80.68%)	14.26% (80.32%)	31.05% (77.78%)
馬連	12.42% (81.97%)	12.55% (82.26%)	11.85% (79.65%)	18.33% (109.75%)	23.74% (64.06%)	14.83% (78.60%)	10.59% (84.71%)	25.18% (71.98%)
ワイド	27.09% (89.42%)	28.30% (90.17%)	25.46% (88.56%)	32.50% (90.58%)	51.60% (85.30%)	33.37% (85.48%)	22.79% (91.10%)	49.03% (80.10%)
馬単	6.54% (73.74%)	6.51% (75.82%)	6.50% (68.33%)	7.50% (118.67%)	14.61% (68.63%)	7.17% (75.83%)	5.60% (73.50%)	25.18% (68.48%)
三連複	6.11% (76.08%)	7.10% (69.60%)	5.04% (84.08%)	6.67% (57.42%)	18.72% (79.91%)	8.41% (69.33%)	4.20% (77.98%)	16.03% (70.19%)
三連単	1.33% (45.04%)	1.66% (54.62%)	1.03% (23.86%)	0.83% (200.75%)	5.02% (61.42%)	1.98% (65.22%)	0.78% (36.84%)	16.03% (66.39%)
総合	60.38% (77.00%)	60.33% (77.90%)	60.09% (73.60%)	65.00% (111.66%)	76.26% (78.14%)	65.02% (78.09%)	57.40% (75.93%)	90.16% (70.53%)

[Loop 11] NDCG@1 = 0.7833
[Loop 11] NDCG@3 = 0.7884
[Loop 11] NDCG@5 = 0.8011
[Loop 11] NDCG@10 = 0.8544

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.21% (79.11%)	26.70% (76.85%)	27.46% (79.95%)	30.83% (99.58%)	40.18% (100.23%)	28.68% (80.66%)	25.55% (76.70%)	57.83% (77.97%)
複勝	58.96% (84.86%)	58.14% (82.61%)	59.42% (87.03%)	64.17% (86.83%)	73.97% (93.06%)	63.66% (84.14%)	56.04% (84.36%)	90.22% (83.78%)
枠連	15.61% (79.31%)	15.76% (85.74%)	14.80% (71.63%)	26.26% (110.00%)	-- (--)	17.31% (74.13%)	14.05% (76.01%)	31.44% (78.70%)
馬連	12.50% (80.60%)	12.91% (82.16%)	11.60% (78.39%)	19.17% (89.08%)	24.20% (64.34%)	14.71% (73.13%)	10.71% (84.57%)	25.56% (72.86%)
ワイド	27.26% (84.65%)	28.36% (83.94%)	25.76% (85.71%)	32.50% (80.00%)	52.05% (86.30%)	33.37% (87.05%)	22.99% (83.70%)	49.49% (78.85%)
馬単	6.71% (72.71%)	6.81% (74.66%)	6.44% (71.26%)	9.17% (65.17%)	12.33% (53.65%)	7.66% (66.67%)	5.89% (76.44%)	25.56% (69.56%)
三連複	6.19% (65.45%)	7.22% (68.45%)	5.16% (64.39%)	5.83% (37.67%)	18.72% (76.07%)	8.90% (68.47%)	4.16% (63.48%)	16.67% (69.43%)
三連単	1.33% (56.14%)	1.78% (85.25%)	0.97% (30.36%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.65% (40.00%)	2.10% (49.25%)	0.87% (59.90%)	16.67% (64.34%)
総合	60.03% (75.30%)	59.50% (79.84%)	60.21% (71.09%)	65.00% (70.17%)	78.54% (73.38%)	63.91% (72.94%)	57.07% (75.64%)	90.59% (69.61%)

深く

10回程度で探ってきたけど、ちょっと掘り下げてピークを探す段階に。

NumberOfLeaves: 255
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 100
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～400 = 0点, 401～1000は0.94乗に0～1000点

40回スタートして寝た。

[Loop 32] NDCG@1 = 0.7840
[Loop 32] NDCG@3 = 0.7872
[Loop 32] NDCG@5 = 0.8003
[Loop 32] NDCG@10 = 0.8542

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.15% (79.58%)	26.47% (78.15%)	27.58% (79.42%)	30.83% (101.83%)	40.64% (97.35%)	28.68% (83.93%)	25.42% (76.52%)	58.18% (79.13%)
複勝	58.52% (84.36%)	58.38% (83.57%)	58.32% (85.07%)	63.33% (85.83%)	71.69% (89.86%)	64.03% (85.59%)	55.50% (83.46%)	89.93% (83.63%)
枠連	15.74% (81.58%)	15.54% (86.39%)	15.50% (77.01%)	22.22% (85.86%)	-- (--)	17.43% (75.24%)	14.17% (78.52%)	31.18% (77.70%)
馬連	12.42% (81.24%)	12.43% (81.60%)	12.03% (81.34%)	17.50% (74.58%)	24.20% (71.96%)	14.46% (73.71%)	10.67% (84.58%)	25.73% (71.47%)
ワイド	27.24% (87.49%)	28.00% (84.38%)	26.18% (90.66%)	30.83% (87.92%)	51.14% (86.76%)	32.51% (86.28%)	23.32% (87.96%)	49.90% (79.98%)
馬単	6.89% (68.10%)	6.51% (65.68%)	7.17% (71.59%)	8.33% (54.42%)	13.70% (67.95%)	7.91% (66.51%)	5.93% (68.65%)	25.73% (69.28%)
三連複	6.14% (63.50%)	6.99% (59.19%)	5.29% (69.79%)	5.83% (37.67%)	18.72% (80.96%)	8.28% (63.56%)	4.29% (61.90%)	16.50% (70.28%)
三連単	1.56% (51.34%)	1.89% (63.42%)	1.28% (41.52%)	0.83% (16.00%)	5.94% (107.08%)	2.10% (51.98%)	0.99% (46.09%)	16.50% (65.68%)
総合	59.74% (74.55%)	59.68% (75.06%)	59.42% (74.54%)	65.00% (67.61%)	76.26% (85.99%)	64.52% (73.35%)	56.65% (73.46%)	90.27% (70.31%)

[Loop 34] NDCG@1 = 0.7831
[Loop 34] NDCG@3 = 0.7877
[Loop 34] NDCG@5 = 0.8007
[Loop 34] NDCG@10 = 0.8543

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.44% (81.67%)	27.06% (80.87%)	27.64% (81.29%)	30.00% (98.17%)	39.27% (97.26%)	30.41% (89.13%)	25.38% (77.78%)	57.77% (78.70%)
複勝	58.52% (83.98%)	58.26% (83.36%)	58.51% (84.46%)	62.50% (86.25%)	71.23% (88.36%)	64.52% (85.90%)	55.38% (82.95%)	89.87% (83.23%)
枠連	15.93% (85.15%)	15.61% (90.22%)	15.76% (80.50%)	23.23% (86.97%)	-- (--)	17.18% (73.87%)	14.50% (83.51%)	31.73% (80.50%)
馬連	12.47% (82.18%)	12.37% (80.16%)	12.21% (84.96%)	17.50% (72.33%)	23.74% (62.28%)	14.22% (72.61%)	10.88% (87.16%)	25.85% (72.31%)
ワイド	27.29% (85.52%)	28.42% (86.76%)	25.88% (85.24%)	30.83% (72.00%)	52.05% (87.12%)	31.89% (84.39%)	23.53% (85.75%)	49.46% (77.62%)
馬単	6.83% (77.45%)	6.51% (77.45%)	7.05% (79.26%)	8.33% (52.75%)	13.24% (59.50%)	7.91% (81.68%)	5.89% (77.66%)	25.85% (69.91%)
三連複	6.19% (60.23%)	6.93% (54.40%)	5.41% (67.07%)	6.67% (48.42%)	18.72% (76.30%)	8.28% (58.42%)	4.37% (59.38%)	16.35% (68.23%)
三連単	1.36% (42.09%)	1.42% (42.50%)	1.40% (44.74%)	0.00% (0.00%)	5.02% (57.95%)	1.85% (38.95%)	0.87% (41.71%)	16.35% (62.47%)
総合	59.80% (74.64%)	59.62% (74.13%)	59.72% (75.92%)	63.33% (64.11%)	75.34% (75.54%)	65.14% (73.12%)	56.61% (74.49%)	90.25% (68.63%)

学習継続

NumberOfLeaves: 223
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 100
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～400 = 0点, 401～1000は0.88乗に0～1000点

今朝もこれで10回スタート。

[Loop 2] NDCG@1 = 0.7834
[Loop 2] NDCG@3 = 0.7877
[Loop 2] NDCG@5 = 0.8005
[Loop 2] NDCG@10 = 0.8545

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.18% (80.87%)	27.00% (80.32%)	27.16% (80.82%)	30.00% (89.17%)	41.55% (105.80%)	27.69% (78.26%)	25.71% (79.48%)	57.83% (79.14%)
複勝	58.99% (84.77%)	58.91% (84.54%)	58.63% (84.99%)	65.00% (85.17%)	73.06% (92.05%)	63.29% (83.54%)	56.28% (84.53%)	89.90% (83.59%)
枠連	15.70% (81.96%)	15.12% (83.51%)	15.76% (79.62%)	23.23% (97.07%)	-- (--)	17.06% (76.95%)	14.26% (78.43%)	31.38% (79.43%)
馬連	12.42% (82.45%)	12.43% (81.01%)	11.97% (83.89%)	18.33% (82.75%)	23.74% (71.96%)	14.59% (77.12%)	10.67% (85.17%)	25.70% (73.69%)
ワイド	26.89% (86.77%)	27.47% (81.26%)	26.00% (93.56%)	30.83% (71.33%)	49.32% (82.51%)	33.00% (88.84%)	22.83% (86.47%)	49.35% (79.75%)
馬単	6.69% (77.34%)	6.57% (77.15%)	6.68% (77.37%)	8.33% (79.58%)	12.79% (85.48%)	7.79% (80.25%)	5.77% (75.64%)	25.70% (70.56%)
三連複	6.34% (72.15%)	7.22% (61.87%)	5.35% (81.93%)	7.50% (82.58%)	19.18% (77.67%)	9.02% (72.58%)	4.29% (71.50%)	16.09% (69.39%)
三連単	1.36% (56.62%)	1.54% (57.65%)	1.22% (45.05%)	0.83% (200.75%)	3.65% (130.96%)	2.10% (75.60%)	0.91% (43.58%)	16.09% (64.38%)
総合	60.12% (77.81%)	60.04% (75.75%)	59.78% (78.40%)	65.83% (98.58%)	77.63% (92.35%)	63.66% (79.14%)	57.35% (75.60%)	90.22% (69.96%)

[Loop 4] NDCG@1 = 0.7839
[Loop 4] NDCG@3 = 0.7875
[Loop 4] NDCG@5 = 0.8007
[Loop 4] NDCG@10 = 0.8545

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.38% (81.43%)	26.52% (77.86%)	27.95% (83.15%)	31.67% (107.92%)	39.73% (96.21%)	29.42% (85.18%)	25.59% (78.84%)	57.80% (79.03%)
複勝	58.58% (84.48%)	58.02% (83.37%)	58.93% (85.67%)	61.67% (83.67%)	73.06% (91.37%)	63.78% (85.38%)	55.54% (83.56%)	89.75% (82.63%)
枠連	15.61% (79.13%)	15.83% (86.08%)	14.93% (72.17%)	23.23% (91.01%)	-- (--)	17.80% (78.36%)	13.89% (74.37%)	30.86% (77.59%)
馬連	12.33% (77.04%)	12.61% (76.77%)	11.60% (76.82%)	18.33% (83.83%)	22.37% (57.63%)	15.20% (82.48%)	10.47% (76.98%)	25.30% (70.35%)
ワイド	27.32% (84.29%)	28.24% (82.00%)	26.00% (86.24%)	32.50% (89.83%)	51.60% (85.89%)	33.13% (85.30%)	23.20% (83.81%)	49.15% (78.63%)
馬単	6.83% (72.89%)	6.57% (70.68%)	6.99% (76.24%)	8.33% (58.17%)	12.33% (53.52%)	7.54% (73.89%)	6.10% (74.31%)	25.30% (68.28%)
三連複	6.16% (67.52%)	7.40% (74.52%)	4.80% (59.89%)	7.50% (73.58%)	18.26% (69.50%)	8.28% (59.46%)	4.37% (70.03%)	16.18% (71.79%)
三連単	1.24% (42.60%)	1.54% (58.31%)	1.03% (29.59%)	0.00% (0.00%)	2.74% (27.81%)	1.85% (36.43%)	0.91% (46.00%)	16.18% (66.24%)
総合	59.86% (73.60%)	59.33% (75.99%)	60.15% (71.22%)	63.33% (73.11%)	77.63% (68.85%)	64.40% (73.31%)	56.74% (73.49%)	90.07% (70.36%)

NumberOfLeaves: 223
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 100
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～400 = 0点, 401～1000は0.89乗に0～1000点

[Loop 2] NDCG@1 = 0.7842
[Loop 2] NDCG@3 = 0.7877
[Loop 2] NDCG@5 = 0.8008
[Loop 2] NDCG@10 = 0.8545

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.18% (79.14%)	27.06% (80.30%)	27.16% (77.40%)	29.17% (86.75%)	37.90% (93.06%)	28.55% (80.14%)	25.75% (77.55%)	57.60% (77.81%)
複勝	58.58% (84.33%)	58.44% (83.69%)	58.32% (84.87%)	64.17% (85.92%)	71.69% (88.72%)	64.15% (85.38%)	55.54% (83.59%)	89.90% (83.38%)
枠連	15.67% (81.35%)	15.61% (85.52%)	15.25% (74.91%)	23.23% (124.34%)	-- (--)	17.55% (79.33%)	14.05% (76.86%)	31.21% (80.69%)
馬連	12.42% (80.76%)	12.55% (77.32%)	11.91% (83.13%)	17.50% (96.67%)	23.74% (73.70%)	15.20% (81.27%)	10.47% (81.23%)	25.62% (73.06%)
ワイド	27.09% (84.72%)	28.00% (81.87%)	25.82% (87.10%)	31.67% (92.33%)	50.68% (85.62%)	33.50% (89.44%)	22.83% (83.07%)	49.52% (78.86%)
馬単	6.71% (80.57%)	6.39% (74.82%)	6.99% (85.74%)	7.50% (90.75%)	12.33% (72.60%)	7.91% (84.19%)	5.81% (80.09%)	25.62% (70.80%)
三連複	6.05% (61.91%)	6.87% (55.34%)	5.10% (67.80%)	7.50% (73.58%)	20.09% (85.89%)	8.16% (75.09%)	4.08% (55.35%)	16.35% (74.63%)
三連単	1.30% (55.52%)	1.42% (55.49%)	1.28% (59.59%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.20% (72.19%)	2.10% (73.46%)	0.87% (48.03%)	16.35% (69.51%)
総合	59.71% (75.97%)	59.68% (74.06%)	59.36% (77.58%)	65.00% (80.33%)	76.71% (81.68%)	64.52% (81.04%)	56.57% (73.22%)	90.22% (72.84%)

NDCGの割に期待外れな検証結果。ここまでくるとダメかなぁっと思えるけど、

NumberOfLeaves: 223
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 100
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～400 = 0点, 401～1000は0.90乗に0～1000点

切り良く0.9乗までは試しておかなきゃとは思うので。

[Loop 3] NDCG@1 = 0.7837
[Loop 3] NDCG@3 = 0.7872
[Loop 3] NDCG@5 = 0.8007
[Loop 3] NDCG@10 = 0.8545

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	26.86% (78.62%)	26.41% (77.75%)	27.10% (78.24%)	30.00% (95.92%)	39.73% (97.90%)	28.92% (85.28%)	25.01% (74.66%)	57.63% (78.64%)
複勝	58.78% (84.84%)	58.38% (84.13%)	58.81% (85.35%)	64.17% (87.92%)	70.78% (87.21%)	64.28% (86.61%)	55.87% (84.04%)	89.58% (82.99%)
枠連	15.93% (85.00%)	16.18% (93.66%)	15.12% (75.75%)	25.25% (108.69%)	-- (--)	17.06% (76.74%)	14.54% (82.36%)	31.64% (80.04%)
馬連	12.53% (83.55%)	12.97% (85.90%)	11.54% (80.39%)	20.00% (94.00%)	25.11% (76.07%)	14.59% (77.27%)	10.71% (86.32%)	25.99% (74.16%)
ワイド	27.38% (88.16%)	28.60% (86.34%)	25.70% (90.50%)	33.33% (81.67%)	51.14% (84.20%)	33.13% (86.76%)	23.32% (88.98%)	48.86% (78.19%)
馬単	6.60% (75.37%)	6.69% (76.14%)	6.26% (72.69%)	10.00% (101.25%)	14.61% (88.77%)	7.42% (76.30%)	5.60% (73.85%)	25.99% (71.60%)
三連複	6.34% (70.85%)	7.16% (65.12%)	5.59% (79.65%)	5.00% (30.83%)	17.81% (71.37%)	8.65% (69.15%)	4.53% (71.38%)	16.85% (76.86%)
三連単	1.13% (38.41%)	1.18% (35.81%)	1.09% (43.07%)	0.83% (11.00%)	4.11% (132.10%)	1.73% (38.37%)	0.66% (29.97%)	16.85% (69.90%)
総合	60.20% (75.47%)	59.86% (75.23%)	60.21% (75.70%)	65.00% (75.69%)	76.26% (91.09%)	64.65% (74.56%)	57.27% (73.94%)	89.87% (73.33%)

さて、次のでピークが分かるかな?

NumberOfLeaves: 223
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 100
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～400 = 0点, 401～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点

乗数1未満の適正値がどこかね。

[Loop 7] NDCG@1 = 0.7836
[Loop 7] NDCG@3 = 0.7872
[Loop 7] NDCG@5 = 0.8006
[Loop 7] NDCG@10 = 0.8543

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.61% (81.50%)	27.12% (80.25%)	27.70% (80.34%)	33.33% (115.08%)	38.81% (92.56%)	29.30% (86.27%)	26.04% (78.92%)	57.51% (78.97%)
複勝	58.55% (84.16%)	57.73% (82.39%)	58.87% (85.57%)	65.83% (89.75%)	72.60% (91.37%)	63.78% (84.77%)	55.54% (83.30%)	90.07% (82.97%)
枠連	16.09% (83.13%)	16.11% (86.69%)	15.44% (77.81%)	26.26% (116.87%)	-- (--)	17.68% (77.63%)	14.54% (79.69%)	31.38% (79.93%)
馬連	12.50% (77.59%)	12.55% (75.54%)	11.91% (77.82%)	20.00% (103.17%)	22.37% (58.68%)	14.71% (75.08%)	10.88% (80.13%)	25.56% (73.64%)
ワイド	27.41% (84.94%)	28.00% (82.28%)	26.31% (87.32%)	34.17% (89.75%)	50.68% (83.11%)	33.25% (87.68%)	23.36% (84.19%)	49.12% (76.70%)
馬単	6.77% (70.36%)	6.45% (66.00%)	6.93% (71.96%)	9.17% (110.00%)	11.87% (52.97%)	7.66% (76.33%)	6.02% (69.95%)	25.56% (71.15%)
三連複	5.88% (59.71%)	6.69% (51.97%)	4.98% (68.09%)	6.67% (53.83%)	17.81% (74.93%)	8.65% (74.22%)	3.87% (53.51%)	16.32% (65.00%)
三連単	1.22% (36.03%)	1.66% (51.89%)	0.85% (22.38%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.65% (39.68%)	1.85% (36.45%)	0.78% (35.55%)	16.32% (59.98%)
総合	59.88% (72.03%)	59.21% (71.82%)	60.15% (71.37%)	65.83% (84.09%)	76.71% (70.47%)	64.28% (74.80%)	56.90% (70.65%)	90.36% (67.28%)

NumberOfLeaves: 223
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 100
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～400 = 0点, 401～1000は0.93乗に0～1000点

[Loop 3] NDCG@1 = 0.7837
[Loop 3] NDCG@3 = 0.7877
[Loop 3] NDCG@5 = 0.8008
[Loop 3] NDCG@10 = 0.8543

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.32% (79.94%)	26.41% (78.00%)	27.89% (79.74%)	32.50% (109.92%)	40.18% (95.48%)	28.55% (83.86%)	25.75% (77.23%)	57.63% (78.09%)
複勝	58.61% (83.92%)	57.73% (82.29%)	59.17% (85.36%)	63.33% (87.00%)	71.69% (90.18%)	64.03% (85.35%)	55.62% (82.87%)	89.55% (83.05%)
枠連	15.51% (80.30%)	15.40% (85.90%)	15.12% (74.66%)	23.23% (90.51%)	-- (--)	16.69% (68.34%)	14.13% (79.20%)	31.34% (78.82%)
馬連	12.33% (77.58%)	12.37% (76.23%)	11.91% (79.36%)	17.50% (72.25%)	23.74% (64.06%)	13.84% (66.54%)	10.80% (82.48%)	25.76% (74.01%)
ワイド	26.77% (85.33%)	27.71% (81.14%)	25.46% (89.54%)	31.67% (86.42%)	50.68% (84.61%)	31.52% (82.46%)	23.03% (86.35%)	49.87% (79.09%)
馬単	6.66% (75.05%)	6.51% (72.80%)	6.74% (79.25%)	7.50% (49.17%)	13.24% (67.53%)	6.80% (65.35%)	6.02% (78.96%)	25.76% (71.38%)
三連複	6.08% (73.29%)	6.93% (59.95%)	5.22% (87.82%)	5.83% (61.67%)	17.81% (74.34%)	8.03% (67.55%)	4.37% (75.11%)	16.56% (70.34%)
三連単	1.19% (38.07%)	1.48% (43.85%)	0.97% (34.91%)	0.00% (0.00%)	2.74% (29.50%)	1.73% (34.88%)	0.87% (39.91%)	16.56% (64.51%)
総合	59.77% (74.10%)	58.97% (72.24%)	60.21% (76.34%)	65.00% (69.15%)	76.71% (72.24%)	64.52% (69.29%)	56.65% (75.26%)	89.90% (70.05%)

[Loop 8] NDCG@1 = 0.7838
[Loop 8] NDCG@3 = 0.7871
[Loop 8] NDCG@5 = 0.8006
[Loop 8] NDCG@10 = 0.8545

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.67% (84.14%)	27.29% (82.21%)	27.76% (84.42%)	31.67% (107.33%)	42.01% (107.12%)	29.91% (89.94%)	25.63% (80.13%)	57.51% (77.69%)
複勝	59.10% (85.45%)	58.67% (84.46%)	58.99% (85.98%)	66.67% (92.08%)	74.89% (95.62%)	65.02% (87.55%)	55.71% (83.84%)	89.35% (83.04%)
枠連	15.93% (85.63%)	16.32% (95.73%)	15.06% (73.53%)	24.24% (134.44%)	-- (--)	17.68% (81.21%)	14.34% (81.67%)	31.80% (81.34%)
馬連	12.47% (81.52%)	12.85% (86.66%)	11.60% (73.92%)	19.17% (113.42%)	23.29% (64.47%)	14.59% (76.96%)	10.80% (84.58%)	26.05% (75.52%)
ワイド	27.21% (86.86%)	28.24% (85.06%)	25.70% (88.57%)	33.33% (88.83%)	50.68% (84.20%)	32.51% (86.67%)	23.32% (87.16%)	49.52% (79.15%)
馬単	6.60% (74.90%)	6.51% (74.88%)	6.50% (70.77%)	9.17% (131.83%)	12.79% (56.16%)	7.66% (80.19%)	5.69% (74.83%)	26.05% (73.10%)
三連複	6.11% (67.52%)	7.28% (69.59%)	4.86% (66.39%)	6.67% (53.83%)	18.72% (76.16%)	8.28% (69.74%)	4.24% (66.00%)	16.79% (71.06%)
三連単	1.16% (43.43%)	1.48% (61.82%)	0.91% (27.73%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.65% (40.78%)	1.24% (23.29%)	0.91% (50.38%)	16.79% (66.26%)
総合	60.23% (76.05%)	59.92% (79.72%)	60.02% (71.40%)	67.50% (89.23%)	78.54% (74.93%)	65.64% (74.44%)	56.78% (76.07%)	89.67% (71.40%)

やれやれ、回収率って突発的な穴を当ててのものもあるのであまりに気しないでいます。それよりもやはり的中率をまず上げたい。特に、全体の足を引っ張っているのが13頭以上のレースなんだけど、これってJRA開催レースの7割とかで、ここで的中率が上がらないと実用的には辛いと思ってます。いや、1点で単勝が4Rに1回、複勝は半分以上、ただ、ワイドがまだ4Rに1回に届いてない状態。

努力が足りないかなぁ^^;

そして逆転の発想

学生時代にはxy軸にグラフとかね。2次方程式とかから始まってy=a\(x^{2}\)+bx+cとかでしたっけ? 更に\(x^{2}\)+\(y^{2}\)=\(r^{2}\)が円になるとかね。まあ、そんな遠い記憶から乗数を1未満にすると1以上とは逆のカーブでって事から

NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 80
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1乗に0～1000点

ってしてみてバグ発見(笑) "1乗"ではなく"0.8乗"です。これを試しに10回スタートしてそろそろ終わるけど、これはちょっと変化が大きいね。1回目から違う感じだが、まあ、4回目の

[Loop 4] NDCG@1 = 0.7819
[Loop 4] NDCG@3 = 0.7865
[Loop 4] NDCG@5 = 0.7995
[Loop 4] NDCG@10 = 0.8535

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	28.42% (85.41%)	27.89% (83.57%)	28.80% (86.37%)	30.83% (98.17%)	39.27% (90.82%)	30.16% (87.89%)	26.86% (84.10%)	58.23% (79.45%)
複勝	59.28% (85.95%)	58.56% (84.54%)	59.54% (87.07%)	65.83% (90.42%)	73.52% (93.01%)	64.52% (86.53%)	56.24% (85.12%)	89.73% (83.28%)
枠連	16.00% (83.71%)	15.97% (90.06%)	15.37% (76.25%)	26.26% (111.92%)	-- (--)	17.68% (87.47%)	14.42% (77.15%)	31.38% (79.40%)
馬連	12.71% (81.86%)	12.91% (79.93%)	12.03% (83.17%)	19.17% (91.08%)	25.57% (71.96%)	14.96% (83.21%)	10.80% (82.30%)	25.59% (78.70%)
ワイド	27.26% (87.12%)	28.12% (85.18%)	26.18% (89.95%)	30.00% (75.67%)	52.97% (88.58%)	32.88% (88.65%)	23.07% (86.48%)	49.55% (80.80%)
馬単	7.41% (80.18%)	7.28% (72.72%)	7.47% (87.32%)	8.33% (87.08%)	16.44% (82.33%)	8.03% (75.33%)	6.39% (81.60%)	25.59% (74.89%)
三連複	6.16% (66.10%)	6.93% (56.44%)	5.29% (75.84%)	7.50% (68.33%)	18.72% (70.27%)	8.41% (67.79%)	4.29% (65.16%)	16.38% (73.08%)
三連単	1.45% (37.15%)	1.66% (41.71%)	1.22% (29.93%)	1.67% (72.08%)	5.48% (58.22%)	2.22% (53.20%)	0.82% (29.90%)	16.38% (68.06%)
総合	60.49% (75.83%)	59.98% (73.93%)	60.51% (76.99%)	67.50% (86.28%)	78.08% (79.32%)	65.14% (78.76%)	57.35% (73.98%)	90.04% (73.00%)

[Loop 5] NDCG@1 = 0.7822
[Loop 5] NDCG@3 = 0.7863
[Loop 5] NDCG@5 = 0.7996
[Loop 5] NDCG@10 = 0.8534

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.73% (81.01%)	27.18% (81.66%)	28.07% (79.64%)	30.83% (90.50%)	38.81% (90.96%)	28.43% (78.83%)	26.49% (80.84%)	57.92% (77.09%)
複勝	59.25% (85.32%)	59.21% (85.10%)	58.81% (85.36%)	65.83% (87.92%)	70.78% (88.86%)	64.15% (84.67%)	56.57% (85.22%)	89.55% (82.64%)
枠連	16.16% (81.36%)	15.90% (84.53%)	15.57% (74.19%)	29.29% (150.20%)	-- (--)	18.42% (85.11%)	14.38% (74.95%)	31.31% (76.12%)
馬連	12.56% (76.79%)	12.49% (71.81%)	11.91% (77.87%)	22.50% (132.08%)	24.20% (73.93%)	15.33% (80.77%)	10.59% (75.73%)	25.56% (69.53%)
ワイド	26.74% (83.43%)	27.59% (82.44%)	25.15% (82.52%)	36.67% (109.83%)	49.77% (82.88%)	32.51% (86.50%)	22.74% (82.45%)	49.46% (77.66%)
馬単	7.03% (73.50%)	6.22% (59.46%)	7.59% (82.81%)	10.83% (143.33%)	14.16% (71.51%)	7.66% (73.60%)	6.18% (73.65%)	25.56% (66.74%)
三連複	6.16% (63.42%)	7.16% (64.51%)	5.04% (62.15%)	7.50% (65.58%)	17.35% (61.14%)	8.78% (66.59%)	4.29% (62.57%)	16.64% (73.31%)
三連単	1.33% (42.73%)	1.24% (28.71%)	1.46% (45.60%)	0.83% (200.75%)	4.11% (44.02%)	1.85% (65.24%)	0.91% (35.11%)	16.64% (67.20%)
総合	60.67% (73.34%)	60.69% (69.46%)	60.21% (73.77%)	66.67% (121.91%)	75.80% (73.33%)	64.77% (77.66%)	57.93% (71.31%)	89.90% (70.47%)

う～ん、それでもワイドが伸びないなぁ^^; バグは修正して

NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 80
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は0.70乗に0～1000点

今度はこれを10回スタート。5回目に

[Loop 5] NDCG@1 = 0.7828
[Loop 5] NDCG@3 = 0.7869
[Loop 5] NDCG@5 = 0.8004
[Loop 5] NDCG@10 = 0.8543

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.12% (79.02%)	27.00% (80.12%)	27.22% (77.20%)	27.50% (88.42%)	39.27% (89.00%)	29.05% (84.08%)	25.38% (76.43%)	58.09% (79.14%)
複勝	58.81% (84.22%)	57.90% (82.49%)	59.42% (85.74%)	63.33% (87.92%)	73.06% (89.95%)	64.15% (84.91%)	55.75% (83.48%)	90.19% (83.50%)
枠連	15.25% (79.29%)	15.68% (86.73%)	14.17% (70.78%)	26.26% (108.69%)	-- (--)	16.81% (79.81%)	13.76% (74.08%)	31.44% (80.39%)
馬連	11.92% (76.18%)	12.31% (76.97%)	10.94% (73.81%)	20.00% (97.58%)	22.37% (59.32%)	13.84% (75.34%)	10.34% (77.98%)	25.67% (72.74%)
ワイド	26.45% (80.93%)	27.24% (79.52%)	25.03% (81.66%)	35.00% (90.83%)	49.77% (81.96%)	31.89% (83.82%)	22.54% (79.88%)	49.67% (77.58%)
馬単	6.34% (67.70%)	6.34% (66.03%)	6.20% (68.14%)	8.33% (85.00%)	12.33% (52.56%)	7.29% (73.36%)	5.48% (67.17%)	25.67% (69.99%)
三連複	5.90% (54.91%)	6.81% (52.42%)	4.92% (57.07%)	6.67% (60.42%)	19.18% (63.47%)	7.79% (57.17%)	4.08% (53.39%)	16.73% (75.41%)
三連単	1.01% (29.00%)	1.24% (40.41%)	0.85% (19.40%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.20% (35.07%)	1.11% (22.10%)	0.78% (30.75%)	16.73% (68.68%)
総合	60.00% (68.76%)	59.21% (70.24%)	60.45% (66.70%)	65.00% (76.66%)	77.17% (67.33%)	64.89% (70.07%)	56.82% (67.90%)	90.54% (72.36%)

これも伸びが無い。決断は早めにって事で8回しかやってないけど中断。

NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 80
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は0.85乗に0～1000点

0.7は行き過ぎって事で、これで10回スタート。でまあ、数値的には9回目

[Loop 9] NDCG@1 = 0.7835
[Loop 9] NDCG@3 = 0.7867
[Loop 9] NDCG@5 = 0.8003
[Loop 9] NDCG@10 = 0.8541

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.87% (82.99%)	26.82% (79.03%)	28.98% (86.70%)	27.50% (87.83%)	40.64% (96.35%)	29.05% (85.06%)	26.33% (81.10%)	58.26% (78.77%)
複勝	59.33% (85.68%)	58.50% (83.72%)	60.09% (87.90%)	60.83% (82.92%)	71.69% (88.63%)	63.78% (85.20%)	56.74% (85.58%)	89.84% (83.05%)
枠連	15.61% (80.53%)	15.68% (86.85%)	15.12% (74.14%)	22.22% (92.32%)	-- (--)	17.55% (80.51%)	13.97% (75.43%)	31.54% (78.69%)
馬連	12.04% (76.72%)	12.26% (76.44%)	11.48% (77.08%)	16.67% (75.92%)	22.37% (56.94%)	14.83% (78.05%)	10.18% (78.07%)	25.50% (77.86%)
ワイド	26.40% (81.79%)	27.18% (79.38%)	25.33% (84.67%)	30.00% (76.17%)	50.23% (83.38%)	31.89% (82.98%)	22.41% (81.25%)	49.03% (81.39%)
馬単	6.48% (70.96%)	6.39% (70.33%)	6.50% (71.14%)	7.50% (77.42%)	12.79% (53.61%)	7.66% (75.30%)	5.52% (71.08%)	25.50% (75.00%)
三連複	6.40% (77.60%)	7.64% (80.32%)	4.92% (73.63%)	9.17% (93.83%)	18.26% (68.26%)	9.15% (70.33%)	4.41% (80.87%)	16.30% (81.65%)
三連単	1.30% (66.14%)	1.48% (87.60%)	1.09% (33.15%)	1.67% (216.75%)	4.57% (51.96%)	2.22% (82.22%)	0.70% (62.06%)	16.30% (76.80%)
総合	60.43% (77.77%)	59.80% (80.32%)	61.00% (73.55%)	61.67% (100.58%)	75.80% (71.30%)	64.28% (79.96%)	57.77% (76.93%)	90.16% (77.93%)

なんか結局ダメなので

NumberOfLeaves: 191
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 100
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は0.85乗に0～1000点

Geminiがパラメーター抑えて学習深度変えるって事で、これ10回。

[Loop 7] NDCG@1 = 0.7829
[Loop 7] NDCG@3 = 0.7862
[Loop 7] NDCG@5 = 0.7999
[Loop 7] NDCG@10 = 0.8536

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.73% (81.32%)	27.47% (81.23%)	27.83% (79.92%)	30.00% (101.83%)	42.01% (106.30%)	28.92% (83.34%)	26.04% (78.39%)	57.92% (78.66%)
複勝	59.65% (85.89%)	58.73% (83.71%)	60.15% (87.61%)	65.83% (93.08%)	73.97% (93.15%)	65.27% (87.10%)	56.49% (84.83%)	89.55% (82.40%)
枠連	16.16% (85.03%)	16.96% (94.25%)	14.74% (73.70%)	27.27% (133.94%)	-- (--)	18.42% (86.50%)	14.38% (79.14%)	30.86% (75.89%)
馬連	12.59% (82.11%)	13.08% (82.55%)	11.60% (80.28%)	19.17% (101.08%)	22.83% (58.72%)	15.33% (85.97%)	10.75% (82.94%)	25.47% (72.93%)
ワイド	26.98% (83.93%)	28.12% (83.25%)	25.58% (85.36%)	30.00% (73.75%)	49.77% (82.01%)	33.13% (88.92%)	22.87% (82.44%)	49.49% (77.95%)
馬単	6.83% (78.08%)	6.99% (79.53%)	6.62% (75.15%)	7.50% (97.75%)	13.24% (60.73%)	7.79% (83.73%)	5.93% (77.76%)	25.47% (69.72%)
三連複	6.22% (73.57%)	7.22% (59.64%)	5.16% (88.55%)	6.67% (64.00%)	18.72% (67.72%)	8.53% (76.82%)	4.33% (73.01%)	16.44% (70.45%)
三連単	1.36% (49.15%)	1.72% (58.06%)	1.03% (28.95%)	0.83% (200.75%)	3.65% (39.00%)	2.22% (91.90%)	0.87% (35.81%)	16.44% (63.35%)
総合	60.93% (77.28%)	60.27% (77.43%)	61.12% (74.95%)	67.50% (107.70%)	78.08% (72.52%)	66.13% (85.54%)	57.64% (74.29%)	89.90% (68.99%)

これ、複勝もうちょっとだ(笑) でも、ワイドがねぇ^^; もしかして

[Loop 3] NDCG@1 = 0.7818
[Loop 3] NDCG@3 = 0.7869
[Loop 3] NDCG@5 = 0.7994
[Loop 3] NDCG@10 = 0.8534

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.58% (81.73%)	26.88% (79.55%)	28.01% (82.05%)	31.67% (107.92%)	39.73% (95.53%)	29.17% (85.01%)	25.96% (79.39%)	57.63% (78.74%)
複勝	59.19% (84.96%)	58.67% (84.27%)	59.23% (85.22%)	65.83% (90.92%)	73.06% (91.69%)	64.03% (85.07%)	56.32% (84.31%)	89.41% (83.03%)
枠連	15.80% (82.66%)	16.04% (89.91%)	15.06% (75.15%)	24.24% (99.09%)	-- (--)	17.31% (77.75%)	14.30% (79.06%)	31.99% (82.33%)
馬連	12.21% (79.30%)	12.55% (82.16%)	11.42% (75.60%)	18.33% (89.92%)	22.37% (59.86%)	14.34% (76.81%)	10.59% (81.89%)	26.05% (77.12%)
ワイド	26.86% (86.00%)	27.89% (83.61%)	25.52% (88.92%)	30.83% (79.58%)	50.23% (83.65%)	32.01% (83.67%)	23.03% (86.99%)	49.46% (80.13%)
馬単	6.43% (72.79%)	6.22% (72.47%)	6.50% (71.96%)	8.33% (88.75%)	11.87% (55.16%)	6.92% (66.27%)	5.77% (76.56%)	26.05% (74.61%)
三連複	6.40% (78.44%)	7.28% (68.43%)	5.53% (90.75%)	5.83% (50.58%)	19.18% (76.53%)	8.28% (63.21%)	4.61% (83.69%)	16.67% (72.68%)
三連単	1.22% (50.58%)	1.42% (55.39%)	1.03% (34.70%)	0.83% (200.75%)	2.28% (23.33%)	1.85% (78.48%)	0.91% (43.74%)	16.67% (68.03%)
総合	60.43% (76.98%)	60.09% (76.70%)	60.39% (75.55%)	65.83% (100.98%)	77.17% (69.39%)	64.77% (77.03%)	57.48% (76.95%)	89.75% (72.87%)

でも、最後に来たか?

[Loop 10] NDCG@1 = 0.7827
[Loop 10] NDCG@3 = 0.7870
[Loop 10] NDCG@5 = 0.7999
[Loop 10] NDCG@10 = 0.8536

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.47% (81.41%)	27.06% (79.67%)	27.70% (82.94%)	30.00% (84.92%)	40.18% (94.47%)	28.55% (81.32%)	25.96% (80.26%)	57.22% (75.75%)
複勝	58.81% (84.33%)	58.38% (82.99%)	58.93% (85.78%)	63.33% (83.25%)	74.43% (93.24%)	64.77% (85.98%)	55.42% (82.97%)	89.23% (82.05%)
枠連	16.09% (85.52%)	15.83% (89.66%)	15.88% (80.54%)	23.23% (105.76%)	-- (--)	17.68% (80.59%)	14.54% (81.73%)	31.15% (76.91%)
馬連	12.56% (82.63%)	12.43% (79.93%)	12.27% (84.50%)	18.33% (95.08%)	23.74% (64.61%)	15.20% (83.72%)	10.67% (83.90%)	25.47% (71.26%)
ワイド	27.29% (85.25%)	27.65% (81.94%)	26.67% (89.11%)	30.83% (78.92%)	51.60% (86.53%)	33.00% (86.43%)	23.20% (84.74%)	49.20% (77.14%)
馬単	6.69% (76.54%)	6.28% (76.08%)	6.99% (76.60%)	8.33% (82.33%)	11.87% (54.20%)	7.54% (80.30%)	5.93% (77.31%)	25.47% (68.05%)
三連複	6.11% (64.16%)	6.87% (56.41%)	5.29% (72.61%)	6.67% (57.42%)	17.35% (64.38%)	8.41% (75.48%)	4.33% (60.37%)	16.53% (73.76%)
三連単	1.51% (59.19%)	1.48% (36.28%)	1.58% (72.38%)	0.83% (200.75%)	2.28% (23.33%)	2.35% (86.00%)	1.15% (53.49%)	16.53% (68.69%)
総合	60.12% (77.27%)	59.74% (72.51%)	60.27% (80.56%)	63.33% (98.39%)	78.54% (68.68%)	65.27% (82.48%)	56.74% (75.60%)	89.58% (71.40%)

ちょっと疲れてきた。

追記 2026.8.12 5:25
昨夜は結局

NumberOfLeaves: 191
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 100
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は0.87乗に0～1000点

これ10回スタートして寝た。1回目に

[Loop 1] NDCG@1 = 0.7834
[Loop 1] NDCG@3 = 0.7865
[Loop 1] NDCG@5 = 0.7998
[Loop 1] NDCG@10 = 0.8534

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.93% (83.04%)	27.00% (80.38%)	28.74% (84.71%)	30.00% (97.42%)	41.10% (103.74%)	29.05% (82.20%)	26.37% (81.45%)	58.06% (79.26%)
複勝	59.36% (85.80%)	58.73% (84.31%)	59.78% (87.27%)	62.50% (86.58%)	73.97% (93.01%)	64.65% (86.07%)	56.28% (85.06%)	89.61% (83.21%)
枠連	16.19% (84.74%)	16.54% (92.53%)	15.25% (76.12%)	26.26% (110.81%)	-- (--)	18.67% (85.98%)	14.34% (78.95%)	31.70% (80.57%)
馬連	12.65% (81.83%)	12.85% (80.37%)	11.91% (82.15%)	20.00% (98.00%)	23.74% (65.16%)	15.57% (85.70%)	10.67% (82.04%)	25.88% (72.52%)
ワイド	27.15% (84.91%)	27.95% (83.21%)	25.94% (86.59%)	32.50% (85.92%)	50.68% (84.98%)	33.13% (87.58%)	23.03% (84.02%)	49.64% (80.53%)
馬単	6.69% (71.91%)	6.39% (68.39%)	6.80% (73.92%)	9.17% (94.00%)	12.79% (68.17%)	7.66% (70.62%)	5.81% (72.68%)	25.88% (69.78%)
三連複	6.37% (67.98%)	7.34% (65.61%)	5.22% (69.14%)	8.33% (85.33%)	18.72% (85.80%)	9.02% (82.32%)	4.37% (61.59%)	16.99% (74.79%)
三連単	1.51% (57.42%)	1.78% (61.37%)	1.28% (42.92%)	0.83% (200.75%)	3.20% (35.89%)	2.72% (85.75%)	0.95% (49.92%)	16.99% (69.85%)
総合	60.55% (77.10%)	60.09% (76.69%)	60.87% (75.35%)	62.50% (107.27%)	78.08% (76.68%)	65.39% (83.28%)	57.35% (74.46%)	89.96% (73.03%)

まあ、この先は乗数もう少し上げて、葉も増やしてみるかって感じ。