あなたにひとめぼれ

先日新たな芋焼酎を購入してみました。

コスパ的には5L×4本で12,900円なので単純に1升で1,161円です。なんだ、安くないや(笑) 以前購入したさつま祭は12,100円だったので1,089円でまずまずなコスパではありました。でも、がぶがぶ君の972円がやはり最強ですね。それ以前の博多の華 米焼酎が1,256円なので、どれもそれ以上ではありますが...ってか、やはり最近の物価上昇で痛いorz また、がぶがぶ君に戻らなきゃだなぁ😞

Copilot vs. Gemini

そもそも、ChatGPTは未だに利用した事は無いです。無料でも使えるんだろうけど、態々アクセスするとか、もしかしてアカウントを作成するとかあるかもって考えると面倒は避けたいからなんだけど^^; もう、ここ最近はCopilotに振り回された。その度にGeminiも試したりしたけど、ここ最近、ああっ、基本的にブラウザがEdgeなんだけど、そこか! もしかして、Chromeに乗り換えた方が幸せになれるかな?(笑)

いや、少し前からEdgeの再起動とかでCopilot使う時に毎回ログイン求められて、それでも今使えるアカウントって表示があり、それを選択すれば良かったのだが、それすら面倒だからってCopilotに質問ぶつけて諸々してたら、その使えるアカウントの表示すら出なくなり...こんなのも解決出来ないならGeminiに乗り換えるわってCopilotにぶつけました。

別にMicrosoft信者ではないので、単にスムーズに諸々の作業が出来るのが理想。面倒な事を覚えなおすとか嫌だし。Windowsの再インストールで毎回Chromeも再インストールは面倒だから、これまで多分避けてました。

どうなるかな...

第43回フェブラリーステークス

先月とはがらっと変わり成績が悪いorz

素直に今使っているモデルに乗りました。

GIだから少し手広く攻めてみました。

本来なら本日変更申請が通ってもいいと思うけど、それが通った後に今準備しているバージョンの変更申請もしようかと思ってます。しかし、昨日Visual Studioが飛んだ😫 24時間学習もやってたのに一緒に飛ばされた。今ちょっといじっているのは学習モデル使って予測する処理の改善を試みてます。どの程度変わるかはまだ途中なのでなんともなんですが、上手く行けばレース毎の表示スピードが改善されるはずです。

で、まあ、先日追加した時系列オッズ対応で、

こんな感じに表示されるんですが、5～6分間隔でのオッズと総評数なので各馬の票数はオッズからの逆算なのでたまにマイナスだったりするのは全体のオッズのバランスからの推定票数だからなんですが、例えば6番ラムジェットの2つ目の5,190票ってつまり519,000円投票されてるんですよね。まあ、全国とかで発売開始からスタートしてものの5分間の間に同時にっていうより、単に誰かが大きく買ってるって事をこの時系列オッズで見て、その大口に乗るとかの判断する為に時系列オッズを見る方はしてるのかな? 今回のGIでは既に百万票超えてるので表示幅を対応する為に少々広げました。百万票って100,000,000円超え? 単勝で1億円以上売れるんだというのも、これまではあまり気にした事が無かったなぁ。

通常用モデルのメモ

86400_14142(16.2MB)

1,909R	1点	芝(921R)	ダート(912R)	障害(76R)	8頭以下(139R)	9～12頭(465R)	13頭以上(1305R)	多点
単勝	21.53% (76.62%)	18.46% (68.91%)	24.34% (85.44%)	25.00% (64.21%)	39.57% (109.50%)	24.73% (71.31%)	18.47% (75.01%)	50.24% (77.44%)
複勝	51.23% (84.81%)	46.04% (79.15%)	56.03% (89.79%)	56.58% (93.68%)	67.63% (92.45%)	57.42% (88.99%)	47.28% (82.51%)	86.38% (82.31%)
枠連	11.65% (72.49%)	10.14% (65.77%)	12.53% (77.24%)	18.03% (88.85%)	-- (--)	16.34% (82.80%)	9.20% (63.92%)	25.98% (78.57%)
馬連	9.11% (64.72%)	8.25% (59.34%)	10.09% (71.97%)	7.89% (42.89%)	22.30% (85.61%)	13.12% (86.39%)	6.28% (54.77%)	20.95% (83.28%)
ワイド	20.59% (74.52%)	18.02% (64.16%)	23.14% (86.34%)	21.05% (58.16%)	44.60% (85.76%)	27.10% (89.03%)	15.71% (68.15%)	41.54% (80.72%)
馬単	4.92% (64.62%)	3.80% (57.68%)	6.14% (74.43%)	3.95% (31.05%)	14.39% (77.12%)	7.31% (101.31%)	3.07% (50.21%)	20.95% (88.61%)
三連複	4.82% (51.58%)	4.56% (34.95%)	5.04% (70.90%)	5.26% (21.18%)	13.67% (69.64%)	7.74% (58.58%)	2.84% (47.16%)	13.31% (65.08%)
三連単	0.84% (41.03%)	0.76% (50.17%)	0.99% (35.21%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.60% (43.81%)	1.51% (96.22%)	0.31% (21.07%)	13.31% (58.26%)
総合	52.54% (66.20%)	47.77% (59.89%)	56.91% (73.89%)	57.89% (49.02%)	71.22% (80.55%)	58.71% (84.33%)	48.35% (57.85%)	87.01% (69.23%)

86400_14970(2MB)

1,909R	1点	芝(921R)	ダート(912R)	障害(76R)	8頭以下(139R)	9～12頭(465R)	13頭以上(1305R)	多点
単勝	22.68% (94.89%)	20.41% (91.40%)	24.89% (95.78%)	23.68% (126.58%)	27.34% (64.89%)	25.81% (102.80%)	21.07% (95.27%)	50.65% (80.88%)
複勝	50.81% (87.31%)	47.88% (86.49%)	53.84% (88.94%)	50.00% (77.63%)	61.87% (81.94%)	58.28% (93.59%)	46.97% (85.64%)	86.69% (83.02%)
枠連	11.83% (94.98%)	9.75% (97.50%)	13.69% (96.22%)	11.48% (46.07%)	-- (--)	12.47% (95.55%)	10.80% (88.37%)	26.52% (83.83%)
馬連	8.85% (93.60%)	7.93% (92.68%)	9.87% (94.71%)	7.89% (91.32%)	22.30% (83.96%)	9.46% (91.91%)	7.20% (95.23%)	19.59% (79.48%)
ワイド	20.22% (82.68%)	18.57% (79.48%)	22.15% (87.84%)	17.11% (59.47%)	41.01% (86.12%)	23.87% (81.57%)	16.70% (82.70%)	40.70% (80.27%)
馬単	4.87% (108.25%)	4.56% (105.20%)	5.15% (107.37%)	5.26% (155.66%)	11.51% (62.73%)	4.73% (87.46%)	4.21% (120.50%)	19.59% (77.53%)
三連複	4.71% (52.21%)	5.21% (51.49%)	4.39% (56.66%)	2.63% (7.63%)	15.83% (84.96%)	5.81% (68.24%)	3.14% (43.01%)	13.04% (66.22%)
三連単	1.00% (79.09%)	1.19% (94.15%)	0.88% (70.47%)	0.00% (0.00%)	5.04% (77.84%)	1.08% (144.28%)	0.54% (55.99%)	13.04% (60.07%)
総合	52.59% (86.50%)	49.84% (87.07%)	55.37% (87.19%)	52.63% (71.16%)	68.35% (77.49%)	59.78% (95.67%)	48.35% (83.34%)	86.96% (69.11%)

86400_14255(30MB)

1,909R	1点	芝(921R)	ダート(912R)	障害(76R)	8頭以下(139R)	9～12頭(465R)	13頭以上(1305R)	多点
単勝	19.17% (75.98%)	17.59% (68.84%)	20.29% (80.66%)	25.00% (106.32%)	28.06% (82.52%)	21.29% (72.34%)	17.47% (76.57%)	47.25% (77.68%)
複勝	48.35% (82.16%)	45.17% (80.10%)	50.99% (83.71%)	55.26% (88.55%)	58.99% (78.27%)	55.70% (86.37%)	44.60% (81.07%)	84.02% (81.57%)
枠連	12.84% (100.67%)	12.38% (98.87%)	12.53% (100.51%)	22.95% (125.25%)	-- (--)	15.91% (97.14%)	10.88% (95.13%)	24.79% (80.38%)
馬連	8.54% (86.30%)	7.60% (65.75%)	8.99% (104.87%)	14.47% (112.37%)	15.11% (48.49%)	11.61% (94.49%)	6.74% (87.40%)	19.28% (77.24%)
ワイド	18.86% (83.04%)	16.50% (77.46%)	20.83% (89.25%)	23.68% (76.18%)	33.09% (60.14%)	25.38% (88.49%)	15.02% (83.54%)	37.45% (79.38%)
馬単	4.09% (74.47%)	4.02% (65.55%)	3.95% (86.00%)	6.58% (44.21%)	7.91% (46.04%)	5.16% (69.51%)	3.30% (79.26%)	19.28% (75.72%)
三連複	5.13% (68.56%)	4.89% (70.67%)	5.15% (69.27%)	7.89% (34.61%)	14.39% (70.14%)	8.17% (83.53%)	3.07% (63.07%)	13.57% (94.17%)
三連単	0.84% (27.88%)	0.65% (17.63%)	0.88% (38.57%)	2.63% (23.82%)	2.88% (55.25%)	1.51% (34.92%)	0.38% (22.46%)	13.57% (89.89%)
総合	50.24% (74.49%)	47.34% (67.42%)	52.63% (81.47%)	56.58% (75.18%)	63.31% (62.98%)	57.20% (78.35%)	46.36% (73.56%)	84.39% (85.30%)

86400_14052(91.9MB)

1,909R	1点	芝(921R)	ダート(912R)	障害(76R)	8頭以下(139R)	9～12頭(465R)	13頭以上(1305R)	多点
単勝	21.58% (80.20%)	19.11% (73.12%)	23.68% (87.84%)	26.32% (74.34%)	34.53% (90.86%)	25.59% (87.05%)	18.77% (76.62%)	50.71% (75.85%)
複勝	50.65% (82.37%)	45.93% (76.84%)	54.50% (87.43%)	61.84% (88.55%)	61.15% (81.08%)	61.29% (93.38%)	45.75% (78.58%)	86.17% (82.52%)
枠連	12.54% (87.66%)	9.88% (62.98%)	14.04% (107.46%)	24.59% (114.92%)	-- (--)	15.91% (81.53%)	10.50% (83.93%)	27.35% (82.63%)
馬連	9.85% (76.90%)	7.93% (42.05%)	11.07% (106.97%)	18.42% (138.42%)	23.74% (87.19%)	12.90% (82.26%)	7.28% (73.90%)	22.52% (77.59%)
ワイド	21.42% (78.47%)	17.81% (63.46%)	24.12% (91.34%)	32.89% (105.92%)	45.32% (86.91%)	29.25% (94.88%)	16.09% (71.72%)	41.80% (84.25%)
馬単	5.29% (88.66%)	3.80% (33.53%)	6.36% (140.86%)	10.53% (130.39%)	15.83% (85.76%)	7.53% (109.40%)	3.37% (81.58%)	22.52% (75.12%)
三連複	5.87% (77.99%)	5.32% (58.32%)	6.25% (99.09%)	7.89% (63.29%)	13.67% (64.24%)	8.17% (76.92%)	4.21% (79.84%)	15.14% (114.25%)
三連単	1.10% (51.01%)	1.09% (29.45%)	1.10% (73.08%)	1.32% (47.50%)	5.04% (109.78%)	1.29% (54.47%)	0.61% (43.52%)	15.14% (134.67%)
総合	52.17% (77.76%)	47.88% (54.79%)	55.59% (99.20%)	63.16% (94.92%)	66.19% (86.55%)	62.58% (84.99%)	46.97% (73.71%)	86.64% (109.44%)

86400_14093(145.1MB)

1,909R	1点	芝(921R)	ダート(912R)	障害(76R)	8頭以下(139R)	9～12頭(465R)	13頭以上(1305R)	多点
単勝	21.37% (80.45%)	19.44% (74.22%)	23.03% (87.27%)	25.00% (73.95%)	39.57% (106.33%)	24.30% (83.40%)	18.39% (76.64%)	50.13% (79.30%)
複勝	52.49% (86.77%)	48.53% (82.20%)	55.15% (90.53%)	68.42% (96.97%)	71.22% (93.38%)	59.35% (88.43%)	48.05% (85.47%)	85.75% (83.29%)
枠連	11.53% (72.54%)	9.49% (62.06%)	12.53% (79.70%)	22.95% (101.80%)	-- (--)	15.05% (85.25%)	9.50% (63.12%)	26.46% (79.45%)
馬連	8.80% (68.52%)	7.38% (49.01%)	9.76% (85.36%)	14.47% (102.89%)	20.14% (72.09%)	10.97% (64.84%)	6.82% (69.46%)	21.11% (67.38%)
ワイド	20.95% (88.37%)	19.11% (77.23%)	22.59% (99.12%)	23.68% (94.21%)	40.29% (79.35%)	26.45% (88.88%)	16.93% (89.14%)	41.07% (85.18%)
馬単	4.87% (82.01%)	3.47% (41.11%)	6.03% (119.85%)	7.89% (123.68%)	12.23% (56.12%)	5.59% (54.75%)	3.83% (94.48%)	21.11% (67.33%)
三連複	5.55% (74.34%)	5.54% (76.91%)	5.48% (74.76%)	6.58% (38.16%)	12.23% (52.09%)	9.25% (85.83%)	3.52% (72.61%)	13.25% (70.22%)
三連単	1.15% (64.48%)	0.87% (21.41%)	1.43% (112.63%)	1.32% (8.68%)	2.88% (46.40%)	1.94% (112.00%)	0.69% (49.48%)	13.25% (64.77%)
総合	53.69% (77.25%)	49.84% (60.48%)	56.36% (93.75%)	68.42% (79.49%)	74.10% (72.25%)	60.86% (82.92%)	48.97% (75.05%)	86.17% (69.75%)

他にも沢山あるけど納得いくものは確かにないなorz

終わりが見えない学習

ちょっと一旦リリースはしたものの、納得したモデルは未だ出ないので昨日新馬戦用10時間をして帰宅後確認すると最適RMSE 1.6756だったのでそれ程期待してなくて放置。今朝まあ折角出たのでどんなものかと確認してみると

269R	1点	芝(176R)	ダート(93R)	8頭以下(26R)	9～12頭(74R)	13頭以上(169R)	多点
単勝	19.33% (73.42%)	20.45% (80.80%)	17.20% (59.46%)	26.92% (70.00%)	25.68% (77.70%)	15.38% (72.07%)	46.47% (70.07%)
複勝	47.96% (79.93%)	54.55% (90.85%)	35.48% (59.25%)	61.54% (80.38%)	54.05% (93.38%)	43.20% (73.96%)	81.78% (80.40%)
枠連	10.22% (83.29%)	12.41% (92.04%)	6.82% (69.66%)	-- (--)	6.76% (32.30%)	10.65% (96.75%)	23.11% (78.31%)
馬連	7.43% (103.01%)	9.09% (91.59%)	4.30% (124.62%)	15.38% (37.69%)	5.41% (31.89%)	7.10% (144.20%)	18.22% (83.51%)
ワイド	18.96% (97.70%)	22.73% (85.40%)	11.83% (120.97%)	38.46% (64.23%)	16.22% (51.89%)	17.16% (122.90%)	39.03% (94.92%)
馬単	4.46% (110.89%)	5.11% (106.82%)	3.23% (118.60%)	0.00% (0.00%)	4.05% (36.89%)	5.33% (160.36%)	18.22% (80.07%)
三連複	4.46% (79.93%)	6.25% (115.85%)	1.08% (11.94%)	19.23% (95.77%)	4.05% (83.11%)	2.37% (76.09%)	14.87% (231.01%)
三連単	0.74% (154.31%)	1.14% (235.85%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	1.18% (245.62%)	14.87% (360.30%)
総合	49.07% (98.11%)	55.68% (112.98%)	36.56% (70.57%)	65.38% (49.73%)	54.05% (50.90%)	44.38% (123.99%)	82.16% (232.18%)

予想外に悪くない。的中率はもっと欲しいけど、回収率は頑張ってる! 可能性はあるからひたすら学習継続するしかないなぁ😩

順位予測もして

久しぶりの順位予測の学習する為にShibaTimeCK36000_16720.mlnetとShouhaTimeCK86400_14018.mlnetを使った学習用CSV出力(3時間弱)をし、30分、1時間そして10時間学習させてみてRaceJuniFullCK36000_25588.mlnetを検証してみると

2,106R	1点	芝(1064R)	ダート(969R)	障害(73R)	8頭以下(163R)	9～12頭(526R)	13頭以上(1417R)	多点
単勝	21.94% (81.81%)	20.68% (79.00%)	23.22% (85.81%)	23.29% (69.59%)	36.20% (102.58%)	25.48% (79.77%)	18.98% (80.18%)	50.28% (78.44%)
複勝	50.85% (83.96%)	47.27% (79.78%)	54.28% (88.76%)	57.53% (81.10%)	63.80% (84.85%)	58.56% (89.41%)	46.51% (81.83%)	86.47% (83.14%)
枠連	12.40% (81.71%)	10.39% (71.05%)	13.88% (90.78%)	18.97% (97.93%)	-- (--)	13.50% (70.84%)	11.08% (79.75%)	25.61% (81.03%)
馬連	9.26% (72.71%)	7.42% (48.98%)	11.25% (99.60%)	9.59% (61.64%)	20.86% (69.08%)	10.46% (72.49%)	7.48% (73.20%)	20.32% (83.46%)
ワイド	20.94% (86.18%)	18.61% (73.59%)	23.53% (102.24%)	20.55% (56.44%)	40.49% (78.34%)	25.29% (84.26%)	17.08% (87.79%)	41.26% (84.65%)
馬単	4.89% (80.34%)	4.04% (52.99%)	5.99% (112.04%)	2.74% (58.08%)	10.43% (70.12%)	6.27% (90.00%)	3.74% (77.93%)	20.32% (82.59%)
三連複	4.94% (105.07%)	4.70% (60.67%)	5.06% (158.69%)	6.85% (40.41%)	11.04% (43.62%)	7.22% (69.03%)	3.39% (125.51%)	14.48% (90.63%)
三連単	1.00% (153.13%)	1.03% (86.91%)	1.03% (237.38%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.07% (80.61%)	0.95% (78.08%)	0.78% (189.33%)	14.48% (96.66%)
総合	52.33% (93.30%)	49.25% (69.08%)	55.21% (122.13%)	58.90% (57.10%)	69.33% (75.60%)	59.13% (79.23%)	47.85% (99.44%)	86.75% (90.10%)

もう少し頑張って欲しい気もあるが、このシリーズで行った変更申請してみようと思うので、今は人気予測用の学習用CSVの出力してます。多分これも3時間弱かかると思うので、その後学習させてセットアップファイル作ってとなるかと思います。

Microsoft Rewards 27回目

前回から36日目なので今回はちょっと前回よりは掛かったかな。5,040ポイントをamazon 600円にしました。毎回悩むけど、今回は選択肢に楽天もあったけど、楽天だと期間限定でしかもあまり長くないんだよね。まあ、使うから問題はないけど、なんとなくamazonにしちゃう。ただ、最近のamazonは自社ドライバー(?)なのが微妙に感じてる。更に時間指定不可なのも本当に微妙。いや、ドライバー不足とか負担を考えるとって事は理解するが、出来る方を選択したくはなっちゃうのも事実。

新馬戦用モデルの選定

そろそろ新バージョンの更新申請に向けてモデルの選定をと考えてます。現時点自分が使っている36000_16788は

265R	1点	芝(176R)	ダート(89R)	8頭以下(26R)	9～12頭(73R)	13頭以上(166R)	多点
単勝	20.00% (77.13%)	23.30% (93.41%)	13.48% (44.94%)	30.77% (80.38%)	20.55% (62.88%)	18.07% (82.89%)	45.66% (73.75%)
複勝	47.55% (79.32%)	52.84% (88.41%)	37.08% (61.35%)	61.54% (78.46%)	47.95% (85.21%)	45.18% (76.87%)	81.13% (76.54%)
枠連	9.05% (79.19%)	10.95% (100.58%)	5.95% (44.29%)	-- (--)	6.85% (86.71%)	9.04% (67.29%)	22.17% (70.48%)
馬連	6.79% (122.68%)	8.52% (141.36%)	3.37% (85.73%)	11.54% (52.31%)	4.11% (75.48%)	7.23% (154.46%)	18.11% (87.70%)
ワイド	18.87% (92.23%)	23.86% (106.65%)	8.99% (63.71%)	46.15% (77.31%)	16.44% (70.00%)	15.66% (104.34%)	36.23% (75.85%)
馬単	3.77% (163.74%)	5.68% (246.53%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	2.74% (117.26%)	4.82% (209.82%)	18.11% (84.94%)
三連複	4.15% (110.53%)	4.55% (140.11%)	3.37% (52.02%)	15.38% (92.69%)	4.11% (57.95%)	2.41% (136.45%)	11.70% (102.11%)
三連単	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	11.70% (79.86%)
総合	48.30% (90.84%)	53.98% (115.03%)	37.08% (44.00%)	69.23% (54.45%)	47.95% (69.43%)	45.18% (104.01%)	81.13% (81.52%)

あくまで芝よりなモデルだけど、根本的に三連単は全くダメ。これ、これまでの最適RMSEな36000_16720ですが、

265R	1点	芝(176R)	ダート(89R)	8頭以下(26R)	9～12頭(73R)	13頭以上(166R)	多点
単勝	21.89% (95.62%)	25.00% (114.77%)	15.73% (57.75%)	38.46% (87.31%)	27.40% (93.70%)	16.87% (97.77%)	48.30% (97.08%)
複勝	47.17% (85.43%)	51.70% (84.83%)	38.20% (86.63%)	65.38% (82.69%)	56.16% (83.56%)	40.36% (86.69%)	84.53% (89.06%)
枠連	8.60% (57.10%)	11.68% (81.68%)	3.57% (17.02%)	-- (--)	8.22% (55.34%)	7.83% (51.69%)	21.27% (78.45%)
馬連	5.28% (28.45%)	6.25% (32.61%)	3.37% (20.22%)	7.69% (16.15%)	5.48% (30.96%)	4.82% (29.28%)	18.49% (113.77%)
ワイド	18.49% (108.23%)	21.59% (72.95%)	12.36% (177.98%)	34.62% (61.15%)	21.92% (78.77%)	14.46% (128.55%)	41.89% (103.61%)
馬単	3.40% (35.21%)	4.55% (47.67%)	1.12% (10.56%)	3.85% (13.85%)	5.48% (52.05%)	2.41% (31.14%)	18.49% (125.50%)
三連複	3.77% (63.32%)	5.68% (95.34%)	0.00% (0.00%)	15.38% (55.77%)	4.11% (63.01%)	1.81% (64.64%)	13.21% (63.52%)
三連単	0.75% (152.64%)	1.14% (229.83%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	1.37% (61.23%)	0.60% (216.75%)	13.21% (56.47%)
総合	49.43% (78.70%)	55.11% (95.34%)	38.20% (46.48%)	69.23% (45.27%)	58.90% (64.83%)	42.17% (88.31%)	84.53% (77.71%)

微妙に的中率は良いものの回収率は劣る。参考までに現時点で公開しているモデルが

265R	1点	芝(176R)	ダート(89R)	8頭以下(26R)	9～12頭(73R)	13頭以上(166R)	多点
単勝	17.36% (77.51%)	17.61% (60.06%)	16.85% (112.02%)	34.62% (102.69%)	16.44% (59.45%)	15.06% (81.51%)	45.66% (79.11%)
複勝	44.53% (92.08%)	46.59% (82.33%)	40.45% (111.35%)	57.69% (80.38%)	45.21% (73.97%)	42.17% (101.87%)	83.77% (81.70%)
枠連	8.60% (80.72%)	11.68% (92.19%)	3.57% (62.02%)	-- (--)	8.22% (33.42%)	7.83% (92.77%)	19.00% (60.81%)
馬連	6.04% (67.32%)	7.39% (58.98%)	3.37% (83.82%)	15.38% (58.85%)	8.22% (40.68%)	3.61% (80.36%)	14.72% (60.33%)
ワイド	12.08% (48.98%)	15.91% (56.19%)	4.49% (34.72%)	34.62% (52.69%)	16.44% (51.51%)	6.63% (47.29%)	31.70% (85.72%)
馬単	2.26% (54.34%)	2.84% (25.17%)	1.12% (112.02%)	7.69% (81.92%)	2.74% (23.01%)	1.20% (63.80%)	14.72% (60.62%)
三連複	4.15% (164.57%)	5.68% (170.74%)	1.12% (152.36%)	19.23% (56.15%)	4.11% (32.60%)	1.81% (239.58%)	11.70% (109.02%)
三連単	1.13% (381.28%)	1.14% (33.75%)	1.12% (1,068.54%)	7.69% (228.46%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.60% (572.89%)	11.70% (115.41%)
総合	45.66% (121.70%)	48.30% (71.86%)	40.45% (218.20%)	65.38% (94.45%)	45.21% (39.33%)	42.77% (160.01%)	84.15% (95.84%)

パット見は回収率に目が行くが、的中率は悪く、検証中のログ見てると気が付くけど、年明けてから悪化してる感じ。ただ、前出の2つに比べ、芝・ダートの差がそれ程感じられない。これ、3600_19662だったりします。ああ、これ最初の数字が秒数で後の数字がRMSEです。

悩む中36000_16742は

265R	1点	芝(176R)	ダート(89R)	8頭以下(26R)	9～12頭(73R)	13頭以上(166R)	多点
単勝	20.75% (68.53%)	23.86% (80.23%)	14.61% (45.39%)	42.31% (92.69%)	24.66% (67.26%)	15.66% (65.30%)	47.55% (68.20%)
複勝	50.94% (83.13%)	59.09% (98.64%)	34.83% (52.47%)	76.92% (118.46%)	54.79% (92.88%)	45.18% (73.31%)	84.53% (81.01%)
枠連	9.05% (69.10%)	10.95% (84.89%)	5.95% (43.33%)	-- (--)	8.22% (68.36%)	8.43% (61.93%)	23.53% (74.43%)
馬連	7.17% (84.79%)	9.09% (117.44%)	3.37% (20.22%)	19.23% (72.69%)	8.22% (180.00%)	4.82% (44.82%)	19.25% (71.94%)
ワイド	18.11% (70.79%)	22.73% (86.82%)	8.99% (39.10%)	46.15% (77.31%)	20.55% (88.63%)	12.65% (61.93%)	41.13% (79.67%)
馬単	3.77% (64.64%)	5.11% (91.99%)	1.12% (10.56%)	11.54% (43.46%)	5.48% (180.27%)	1.81% (17.11%)	19.25% (65.11%)
三連複	3.77% (40.11%)	5.11% (47.73%)	1.12% (25.06%)	15.38% (41.15%)	4.11% (55.21%)	1.81% (33.31%)	14.72% (230.01%)
三連単	0.38% (2.79%)	0.57% (4.20%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.85% (28.46%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	14.72% (348.02%)
総合	52.08% (60.30%)	59.66% (76.25%)	37.08% (29.42%)	76.92% (67.75%)	54.79% (91.58%)	46.99% (44.71%)	84.53% (222.12%)

地味だけど的中率は、まあ、特にってか芝しか良くないんだけどね^^; ただ、ふと、ここまでの検証結果見ててダートより芝の方が倍近くレースがある。これ、学習に何らかの影響があっての結果かもです。

偏りは目をつぶって36000_16720で行くのが良いのかなぁと思ってます。

内緒

久しぶりに新しい芋焼酎を購入しました。

濱田酒造 内緒 1.8Lです。3本 8,250円なので2,750円です。濱田酒造は好きな蔵なのですが、この値段でこの味では残念ながらリピ無です。DIAMEの方がはるかに安くて旨いからです。いや、決して悪い訳ではなく、今もストレートで飲んでるんです。ストレートで飲んでも変な癖はなく、香りも芋っぽさがそれ程しない。でも、値段的にこの味ならもっと安いDIAMEを買います。

この所、年末年始もコスパ重視で焼酎を購入してたので、久しぶりにストレートで飲める芋焼酎ではあるので嬉しいですけどね😋

昨夜のモデル

昨夜寝る前に終わった通常用の24時間学習はRMSE 1.4018はこの学習シリーズでは最適でした。

1,781R	1点	芝(862R)	ダート(848R)	障害(71R)	8頭以下(134R)	9～12頭(439R)	13頭以上(1208R)	多点
単勝	22.63% (81.19%)	19.95% (71.97%)	25.24% (92.33%)	23.94% (60.00%)	30.60% (82.39%)	24.83% (74.62%)	20.94% (83.44%)	51.04% (76.68%)
複勝	52.44% (85.49%)	47.45% (79.87%)	56.60% (90.54%)	63.38% (93.38%)	60.45% (78.28%)	59.45% (89.36%)	49.01% (84.88%)	87.14% (84.35%)
枠連	13.39% (86.79%)	11.00% (73.78%)	14.57% (94.97%)	26.79% (134.29%)	-- (--)	17.08% (98.02%)	11.18% (77.04%)	27.55% (83.56%)
馬連	10.33% (85.04%)	8.58% (54.88%)	11.67% (113.79%)	15.49% (107.75%)	23.88% (78.28%)	13.21% (116.15%)	7.78% (74.48%)	21.79% (84.30%)
ワイド	21.79% (82.11%)	19.61% (69.76%)	23.58% (95.04%)	26.76% (77.61%)	43.28% (80.60%)	27.33% (83.85%)	17.38% (81.64%)	42.56% (85.52%)
馬単	5.50% (87.74%)	4.87% (68.20%)	6.01% (111.12%)	7.04% (45.63%)	10.45% (61.72%)	7.74% (131.34%)	4.14% (74.78%)	21.79% (82.32%)
三連複	5.22% (114.70%)	4.64% (52.83%)	5.66% (184.13%)	7.04% (36.62%)	10.45% (30.22%)	7.52% (67.65%)	3.81% (141.17%)	14.43% (87.48%)
三連単	0.90% (116.08%)	0.93% (46.32%)	0.83% (192.45%)	1.41% (50.85%)	2.99% (24.85%)	1.14% (91.59%)	0.58% (135.10%)	14.43% (86.95%)
総合	54.07% (92.48%)	49.30% (64.50%)	58.02% (121.98%)	64.79% (74.18%)	67.16% (62.33%)	60.14% (94.07%)	50.41% (94.07%)	87.70% (85.20%)

確かにポテンシャルはあるかな?相変わらずダート向きで芝は? これ、もう少しやりたいけど、時間的に新馬用をもうちょっとやって一旦新バージョンリリースに向けてまとめたいと思う。

追記 2026.2.10 18:33
連勝は止まりましたorz いや、勝ち続けるのも嬉しいが実際としてはそんなの無理だし、更に今回のは雪の影響での中止や諸々でね。しかも、オッズマスターズがらみで微妙な買い方しちゃったしorz オッズマスターズはあまり意識せずに勝負に徹した方が良いかなぁと思ってます。

今挑んでる学習

3,366R	1点	芝(1,569R)	ダート(1668R)	障害(129R)	8頭以下(195R)	9～12頭(775R)	13頭以上(2396R)	多点
単勝	22.01% (79.89%)	19.06% (71.02%)	24.28% (87.09%)	28.68% (94.81%)	29.23% (70.10%)	24.52% (85.81%)	20.62% (78.78%)	50.89% (79.15%)
複勝	51.75% (84.38%)	47.36% (81.03%)	54.98% (87.08%)	63.57% (90.31%)	59.49% (78.36%)	57.29% (87.41%)	49.33% (83.89%)	86.16% (83.32%)
枠連	12.91% (89.34%)	12.46% (101.55%)	13.02% (80.38%)	16.82% (71.96%)	-- (--)	15.35% (92.49%)	11.35% (82.98%)	26.95% (81.24%)
馬連	9.51% (79.09%)	8.92% (82.76%)	9.89% (77.46%)	11.63% (55.50%)	17.95% (55.08%)	11.74% (88.13%)	8.10% (78.12%)	20.89% (72.89%)
ワイド	21.63% (83.79%)	19.76% (81.64%)	22.78% (84.66%)	29.46% (98.60%)	36.92% (66.97%)	28.26% (92.79%)	18.24% (82.25%)	40.79% (79.53%)
馬単	4.52% (66.57%)	4.08% (69.23%)	4.86% (65.87%)	5.43% (43.26%)	8.21% (33.79%)	5.55% (68.35%)	3.88% (68.66%)	20.89% (70.19%)
三連複	5.29% (69.55%)	4.97% (58.23%)	5.46% (79.70%)	6.98% (76.05%)	13.85% (68.92%)	7.23% (76.23%)	3.96% (67.45%)	13.34% (75.48%)
三連単	0.98% (66.84%)	1.02% (39.66%)	1.02% (97.57%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.08% (80.97%)	1.29% (30.92%)	0.71% (77.30%)	13.34% (72.70%)
総合	53.09% (77.28%)	49.14% (72.57%)	56.00% (82.49%)	63.57% (66.19%)	64.62% (64.89%)	58.45% (77.76%)	50.42% (77.43%)	86.81% (74.55%)

これ、この所試してる学習で得たRMSE 1.4313なんですが、微妙な出来です。何がやばいって、歳を取ったからか、これに使った学習データが何年からだったかの記憶に自信がないorz いや、試しに検証で１年出来る様に2024.12.31までにしたのは覚えてます。スタートは前回2015.1.1にしたのでそれよりも少なくしてるんだけど、2018.1.1にしたか、その前の年にしたのか...

3,366R	1点	芝(1,569R)	ダート(1668R)	障害(129R)	8頭以下(195R)	9～12頭(775R)	13頭以上(2396R)	多点
単勝	22.16% (82.53%)	19.06% (76.89%)	24.28% (85.58%)	32.56% (111.86%)	28.21% (72.77%)	25.16% (89.03%)	20.70% (81.23%)	50.42% (78.82%)
複勝	52.14% (87.60%)	47.55% (84.57%)	55.70% (90.05%)	62.02% (92.79%)	61.03% (88.21%)	56.65% (87.64%)	49.96% (87.54%)	86.07% (83.46%)
枠連	12.32% (77.97%)	11.40% (86.70%)	13.09% (70.83%)	12.15% (76.45%)	-- (--)	13.94% (81.88%)	11.06% (72.05%)	26.42% (75.49%)
馬連	9.24% (72.76%)	8.16% (79.24%)	10.25% (67.94%)	9.30% (56.20%)	19.49% (78.15%)	10.32% (80.36%)	8.06% (69.86%)	20.50% (70.67%)
ワイド	20.74% (82.94%)	18.99% (82.52%)	22.12% (82.84%)	24.03% (89.30%)	35.90% (67.85%)	25.03% (84.63%)	18.11% (83.62%)	41.33% (82.78%)
馬単	4.93% (64.15%)	4.21% (67.41%)	5.52% (62.46%)	6.20% (46.36%)	10.77% (85.03%)	6.19% (75.07%)	4.05% (58.91%)	20.50% (68.84%)
三連複	4.81% (69.20%)	4.27% (68.90%)	5.22% (72.15%)	6.20% (34.81%)	11.79% (70.36%)	6.58% (67.95%)	3.67% (69.52%)	13.22% (78.21%)
三連単	0.89% (72.41%)	0.64% (85.98%)	1.08% (63.03%)	1.55% (28.76%)	3.08% (108.82%)	0.90% (26.17%)	0.71% (84.41%)	13.22% (75.98%)
総合	53.48% (76.17%)	49.14% (78.87%)	56.89% (74.38%)	62.02% (66.86%)	65.13% (81.60%)	57.29% (74.09%)	51.29% (75.89%)	86.57% (75.98%)

次点のRMSE 1.4314がこれ。狙いが悪いのかの判断に困ってます。もう少し粘ってみる価値があるのかがねぇ。このシリーズの新馬戦用はこれまで１回のみしかしてないけど、RMSE 1.7345で、

329R	1点	芝(214R)	ダート(115R)	8頭以下(31R)	9～12頭(91R)	13頭以上(207R)	多点
単勝	19.45% (67.26%)	21.96% (80.05%)	14.78% (43.48%)	32.26% (81.29%)	21.98% (64.62%)	16.43% (66.33%)	44.38% (60.75%)
複勝	51.67% (91.12%)	56.07% (93.50%)	43.48% (86.70%)	74.19% (95.48%)	54.95% (95.05%)	46.86% (88.74%)	83.89% (77.54%)
枠連	10.07% (71.29%)	14.20% (105.68%)	3.67% (17.98%)	-- (--)	10.99% (71.87%)	8.70% (64.15%)	18.35% (52.59%)
馬連	7.90% (72.25%)	11.21% (105.37%)	1.74% (10.61%)	25.81% (80.00%)	9.89% (159.56%)	4.35% (32.71%)	15.20% (44.27%)
ワイド	20.67% (94.92%)	25.23% (83.64%)	12.17% (115.91%)	51.61% (85.81%)	23.08% (89.12%)	14.98% (98.84%)	38.60% (81.04%)
馬単	3.95% (33.13%)	5.61% (45.56%)	0.87% (10.00%)	12.90% (50.00%)	3.30% (24.29%)	2.90% (34.49%)	15.20% (36.49%)
三連複	3.65% (45.65%)	5.61% (70.19%)	0.00% (0.00%)	25.81% (115.48%)	3.30% (34.40%)	0.48% (40.14%)	10.94% (55.08%)
三連単	0.61% (4.77%)	0.93% (7.34%)	0.00% (0.00%)	6.45% (50.65%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	10.94% (40.82%)
総合	52.28% (59.83%)	57.01% (73.06%)	43.48% (35.70%)	77.42% (79.82%)	54.95% (67.36%)	47.34% (53.18%)	84.50% (48.26%)

これはこれで微妙な出来。まあ、１回のみなので、もう少しやれば化けるかも?

何にしても、どうするのが良いのかは手探りなので時間が掛かっても下手な妥協はしたくないね。

追記 2026.2.7 0:24
ちょっと記述に間違いがあったので修正しましたが、結局このシリーズは断念しました。あまり期待出来ない感じがしたのでね。新馬も何度か試したけど1.7333が何度かやって出たのみだし、通常用は1.4313のままorz いや、もう少し根気強く試せば...PCが何台もあれば色んなパターンをとことんも可能だけど、限られた資源なので^^;

4連勝したけど

無事に４連勝出来ました^^

もう少し勝てると思ったけど、欲はダメだよね。しかし、ネックは芝レースが勝負出来ないのが問題かと^^: まあ、その為に学習は続けてますが...現状では良いものが出ないのが辛い。

今年も既に１月が終わる

学習続けて早半年だし、今年もひと月が過ぎます。前回のバージョンアップ公開から５か月になり、変わり過ぎてるので急遽JRA-VAN公式申請は抜きに使いたい方には使えるようにリリースしました。まあ、リリースしたけど既に自分が使っているのは更に変わってますけどね。

開発続ける気力が続く限り、基本的には自分が使い易く、より良いアプリに出来ればと😁