ここまでで最高のランキング学習モデル

何度も試し、何度も特徴量追加して、でも、若干微妙なサイズ、いや、以前の回帰モデルの頃には100MBとかでも行けたけど、ランキングでは違うっポイけど、ここまでで最高なモデルはNDCG@1=0.7833 NDCG@3=0.7878で27.6MBの検証すると

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	25.88% (83.46%)	25.16% (86.02%)	26.37% (81.85%)	29.17% (69.42%)	31.96% (106.94%)	28.18% (81.90%)	24.56% (81.85%)	56.47% (79.20%)
複勝	57.22% (85.87%)	56.36% (86.09%)	57.35% (85.32%)	67.50% (90.42%)	70.78% (100.64%)	60.69% (82.72%)	54.84% (85.59%)	88.83% (83.04%)
枠連	15.28% (87.86%)	13.84% (87.69%)	16.26% (87.95%)	20.20% (88.79%)	-- (--)	16.44% (85.81%)	13.93% (82.97%)	30.56% (80.29%)
馬連	11.52% (76.35%)	10.60% (73.23%)	11.85% (77.19%)	20.00% (108.75%)	21.00% (70.14%)	14.09% (85.90%)	9.81% (73.73%)	24.23% (73.16%)
ワイド	26.08% (89.79%)	25.99% (85.10%)	25.58% (94.72%)	34.17% (88.08%)	48.40% (105.80%)	30.66% (82.50%)	22.54% (90.77%)	47.21% (80.20%)
馬単	6.60% (80.97%)	5.57% (71.91%)	7.41% (89.34%)	10.00% (93.75%)	10.96% (62.24%)	7.54% (85.50%)	5.89% (81.15%)	24.23% (71.07%)
三連複	5.70% (70.45%)	6.10% (61.61%)	5.22% (79.38%)	6.67% (72.33%)	14.16% (73.24%)	8.41% (71.45%)	4.04% (69.86%)	16.32% (76.72%)
三連単	1.16% (43.68%)	0.83% (33.93%)	1.46% (49.79%)	1.67% (96.92%)	0.91% (12.83%)	1.85% (56.51%)	0.95% (42.18%)	16.32% (72.25%)
総合	58.67% (77.16%)	57.79% (72.89%)	58.87% (80.65%)	68.33% (88.55%)	76.26% (75.98%)	61.31% (79.04%)	56.20% (76.01%)	89.18% (74.53%)

それでもまだ精度が足りないorz これ、ここから更に伸ばすのは辛いのかな? これまでで、指数的には最高でも検証は最高ではないんだよね。

追記 2026.6.21 12:20
サッカー始まる前にNDCG@1=0.7841 NDCG@3=0.7875が出た。これ、イテレーション数3,500、葉255、率0.01、分割数63、葉の最小50、ボーダー300、乗数1.0でしたが、

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	25.35% (80.52%)	24.75% (84.26%)	25.88% (77.83%)	26.67% (64.67%)	32.88% (106.89%)	26.08% (73.36%)	24.43% (80.52%)	55.75% (77.58%)
複勝	57.25% (85.37%)	56.07% (83.88%)	58.08% (87.05%)	62.50% (83.08%)	70.78% (98.17%)	59.33% (80.02%)	55.34% (85.99%)	88.77% (83.08%)
枠連	15.28% (88.38%)	14.48% (97.87%)	15.44% (79.71%)	24.24% (91.21%)	-- (--)	16.19% (81.64%)	14.01% (85.02%)	30.24% (78.75%)
馬連	11.29% (79.66%)	10.78% (81.30%)	11.12% (76.52%)	20.83% (99.67%)	21.92% (73.65%)	13.60% (80.37%)	9.56% (79.96%)	23.85% (70.98%)
ワイド	25.70% (89.66%)	25.99% (85.53%)	24.85% (94.61%)	33.33% (79.92%)	48.86% (99.36%)	29.30% (79.84%)	22.41% (92.06%)	47.24% (78.57%)
馬単	6.11% (75.02%)	5.39% (72.73%)	6.50% (77.36%)	10.83% (75.08%)	10.50% (65.62%)	6.92% (79.79%)	5.44% (74.27%)	23.85% (68.41%)
三連複	5.47% (61.56%)	5.92% (60.57%)	5.16% (65.67%)	3.33% (19.08%)	12.79% (46.48%)	7.66% (71.67%)	4.08% (59.55%)	16.32% (77.36%)
三連単	1.07% (55.08%)	0.83% (32.61%)	1.28% (80.70%)	1.67% (19.92%)	0.91% (11.14%)	1.73% (53.04%)	0.87% (59.72%)	16.32% (72.58%)
総合	58.64% (76.75%)	57.55% (74.36%)	59.42% (79.93%)	63.33% (66.03%)	75.80% (71.62%)	59.95% (74.97%)	56.65% (77.14%)	89.12% (74.01%)

これでも少し的中率が低い。

追記 2026.6.21 17:13
ちょっと前に終わったモデルはNDCG@1=0.7824 NDCG@3=0.7877なんだが、そもそも、このNDCGなんだけど、これ、@5と@10まで表示させてます。

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	25.38% (80.10%)	24.87% (82.92%)	25.64% (77.95%)	29.17% (69.83%)	31.96% (97.63%)	27.32% (77.06%)	24.15% (79.53%)	55.46% (77.49%)
複勝	57.31% (85.87%)	56.60% (85.66%)	57.90% (86.61%)	59.17% (78.75%)	70.78% (100.23%)	59.09% (80.36%)	55.50% (86.42%)	88.63% (82.76%)
枠連	15.06% (89.09%)	14.55% (100.43%)	15.18% (79.39%)	20.20% (81.92%)	-- (--)	16.32% (87.34%)	13.68% (84.02%)	29.66% (77.15%)
馬連	11.29% (81.84%)	10.78% (81.82%)	11.24% (80.72%)	19.17% (97.42%)	20.55% (68.49%)	13.72% (81.17%)	9.64% (83.26%)	23.68% (72.60%)
ワイド	25.82% (90.01%)	25.70% (84.61%)	25.70% (97.20%)	29.17% (67.33%)	45.21% (94.47%)	29.79% (79.48%)	22.74% (93.11%)	46.57% (79.01%)
馬単	6.14% (75.80%)	5.51% (72.76%)	6.44% (77.36%)	10.83% (97.00%)	10.96% (64.84%)	7.17% (83.55%)	5.36% (74.20%)	23.68% (69.46%)
三連複	5.70% (77.81%)	5.98% (53.35%)	5.41% (105.26%)	5.83% (45.75%)	13.24% (65.53%)	8.03% (71.26%)	4.24% (81.10%)	16.09% (73.01%)
三連単	1.07% (70.74%)	0.83% (47.82%)	1.28% (97.96%)	1.67% (19.92%)	0.91% (15.57%)	1.61% (83.11%)	0.91% (71.59%)	16.09% (68.95%)
総合	58.58% (81.30%)	57.84% (75.66%)	59.30% (87.85%)	59.17% (69.47%)	74.89% (72.39%)	59.95% (80.42%)	56.65% (81.65%)	88.89% (72.00%)

まだまだなのは変わらないけど、微妙な精度アップ。まあ、基本的に@3までが馬券に絡む精度指数なので気にしてます。今回@1が下がったものの、@3がアップ。なので多分トータルでの回収率が上がった要因なんだと思う。にしても、こりゃ難解だわ^^;

追記 2026.6.21 17:47
ちょっと検証中ですが、先程出たモデルはNDCG@1=0.7845 NDCG@3=0.7879で、更にNDCG@5=0.8019 NDCG@10=0.8556となんか期待しちゃう感じなんですが、

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	25.18% (78.46%)	24.22% (77.94%)	26.00% (79.99%)	27.50% (64.67%)	32.42% (100.18%)	26.33% (76.91%)	24.15% (77.01%)	55.77% (78.10%)
複勝	56.93% (85.08%)	55.95% (84.09%)	57.59% (86.35%)	61.67% (81.67%)	69.86% (96.76%)	59.21% (81.26%)	55.01% (85.30%)	88.91% (82.79%)
枠連	15.15% (88.78%)	13.98% (91.29%)	15.88% (87.31%)	20.20% (76.46%)	-- (--)	15.95% (76.21%)	13.93% (87.34%)	30.21% (79.17%)
馬連	11.32% (77.55%)	10.89% (78.97%)	11.18% (74.94%)	19.17% (93.50%)	21.46% (70.27%)	13.47% (73.46%)	9.68% (79.58%)	23.85% (71.92%)
ワイド	25.82% (88.82%)	26.23% (86.70%)	24.91% (91.84%)	32.50% (77.25%)	50.23% (106.26%)	30.04% (82.60%)	22.21% (89.32%)	46.63% (77.67%)
馬単	6.11% (71.90%)	5.39% (63.29%)	6.50% (79.06%)	10.83% (94.83%)	11.42% (69.95%)	6.67% (61.92%)	5.44% (75.40%)	23.85% (69.30%)
三連複	5.62% (66.65%)	6.28% (66.39%)	4.92% (69.50%)	5.83% (31.08%)	15.98% (83.47%)	7.66% (69.18%)	4.00% (64.28%)	15.95% (73.92%)
三連単	1.04% (42.94%)	0.95% (20.91%)	1.09% (67.22%)	1.67% (19.92%)	2.28% (29.36%)	1.24% (21.29%)	0.87% (51.38%)	15.95% (68.21%)
総合	58.29% (74.83%)	57.49% (70.77%)	58.81% (79.48%)	62.50% (67.22%)	76.26% (79.47%)	59.95% (67.85%)	56.12% (76.20%)	89.23% (71.71%)

あららっ^^; なんか裏切られた感じだ(笑)

追記 2026.6.22 21:40
イテレーション数3,500、葉255、率0.015、分割数127、葉の最小50、ボーダー0、乗数1.0で学習させてNDCG@1=0.7850 NDCG@3=0.7889でしたが、

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	25.21% (81.48%)	24.57% (85.45%)	25.64% (78.28%)	28.33% (69.33%)	33.79% (103.93%)	26.08% (74.66%)	24.15% (81.72%)	55.63% (79.23%)
複勝	57.37% (86.96%)	56.25% (86.61%)	58.08% (87.36%)	63.33% (86.42%)	70.32% (97.63%)	58.59% (81.16%)	55.79% (87.93%)	88.31% (82.89%)
枠連	15.18% (90.56%)	13.91% (92.78%)	15.76% (88.13%)	24.24% (97.47%)	-- (--)	16.81% (82.19%)	13.68% (87.60%)	29.92% (80.77%)
馬連	11.35% (79.21%)	10.83% (76.70%)	11.24% (80.30%)	20.00% (99.50%)	23.29% (88.04%)	13.72% (76.49%)	9.48% (79.32%)	23.56% (74.04%)
ワイド	25.79% (89.70%)	25.81% (82.81%)	25.21% (97.21%)	33.33% (83.75%)	48.86% (102.60%)	29.17% (75.38%)	22.58% (93.31%)	47.03% (79.90%)
馬単	5.99% (75.75%)	5.68% (77.66%)	5.83% (70.70%)	12.50% (118.00%)	12.79% (109.36%)	6.80% (68.16%)	5.11% (75.24%)	23.56% (71.45%)
三連複	5.33% (61.36%)	5.98% (65.36%)	4.62% (59.40%)	5.83% (31.83%)	14.61% (74.11%)	6.80% (53.30%)	4.00% (62.89%)	15.60% (75.73%)
三連単	1.01% (30.52%)	0.95% (25.48%)	1.03% (36.45%)	1.67% (19.92%)	2.28% (34.02%)	1.48% (26.71%)	0.74% (31.47%)	15.60% (69.22%)
総合	58.70% (74.22%)	57.43% (73.71%)	59.54% (74.66%)	65.00% (75.29%)	75.34% (87.10%)	59.58% (67.26%)	56.90% (74.94%)	88.71% (73.05%)

このモデル20MBなんですが、他の処理諸々した後ではOOM。さらだを一旦終了して再度起動して検証したら出来た。つまり、少しダイエットが必要。更に、ボーダー0にしたからなのか微妙にワイド以降の馬券の的中率が微減。

大事な事を忘れてた

モデルの指数は書いてるけど、どう設定してそれが得られたか書いてないので更に攻めるにしてもどんな設定試してたのか覚えてないorz まあ、イテレーション数5,000なのはモデルのファイル名で分かるけど、それ以外は全く不明ではあるが、それでもまあ、葉255、率は0.01～0.02の間を攻めてたと思うし、分割数は63辺りをやってたかと思うので、今晩も残業後だけど少し試そうかと、イテレーション数5,000、葉271、率0.01、分割数47、葉の最小50、ボーダー500でNDCG@1=0.7817 NDCG@3=0.7861 NDCG@5=0.7993 NDCG@10=0.8533とちょっと詳しく書いてみた。これはログに

=== LightGBM Ranking 学習開始 === (開始時刻: 2026-06-16 20:48:19)
=== データ読み込み開始 ===
=== Train/Test 分割 ===
=== パイプライン構築 ===
=== 学習開始 === 2026-06-16 20:48:19
NumberOfLeaves: 271
NumberOfIterations: 5000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000はリニアに0～1000点
=== 学習完了 === 2026-06-16 20:59:52(00:11:33.1451069)
=== 評価（自前NDCG計算）開始 === 2026-06-16 20:59:52
NDCG@1 = 0.7817
NDCG@3 = 0.7861
NDCG@5 = 0.7993
NDCG@10 = 0.8533
=== 評価完了 === 2026-06-16 21:02:02 (00:02:09.5755349)
=== モデル保存 ===
保存完了: D:\SaraD\ML\RankCK5000_NDCG7817_7861.zip
=== LightGBM Ranking 学習完了 === (終了時刻: 2026-06-16 21:02:04 所要時間: 00:13:45.4878322)

って感じに表示するようにしてます。

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.29% (79.17%)	26.70% (79.31%)	27.58% (78.40%)	31.67% (87.75%)	36.07% (83.01%)	29.17% (82.79%)	25.88% (77.62%)	58.52% (78.99%)
複勝	59.07% (85.01%)	58.97% (84.99%)	58.57% (84.69%)	67.50% (89.67%)	69.86% (86.62%)	63.54% (84.40%)	56.61% (85.07%)	89.35% (83.06%)
枠連	16.16% (84.99%)	16.68% (96.00%)	15.12% (73.81%)	25.25% (106.06%)	-- (--)	17.68% (78.42%)	14.63% (81.79%)	31.57% (80.40%)
馬連	12.50% (80.53%)	12.91% (85.23%)	11.54% (74.09%)	20.00% (102.50%)	22.83% (62.05%)	14.34% (72.47%)	10.96% (84.88%)	26.02% (74.89%)
ワイド	27.61% (86.56%)	28.77% (88.08%)	25.76% (83.35%)	36.67% (109.08%)	50.23% (83.20%)	32.88% (85.18%)	23.82% (87.32%)	49.55% (81.07%)
馬単	6.77% (68.71%)	6.69% (75.93%)	6.50% (59.17%)	11.67% (98.08%)	12.33% (60.37%)	7.91% (65.82%)	5.89% (70.43%)	26.02% (72.02%)
三連複	6.51% (85.52%)	7.34% (79.24%)	5.47% (91.65%)	9.17% (89.83%)	16.89% (68.36%)	8.78% (71.46%)	4.82% (91.76%)	17.28% (86.01%)
三連単	1.27% (67.95%)	1.54% (110.85%)	1.09% (28.88%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.20% (39.45%)	1.98% (45.28%)	0.87% (78.08%)	17.28% (79.91%)
総合	60.41% (79.73%)	60.51% (87.27%)	59.72% (71.75%)	68.33% (84.91%)	74.43% (69.01%)	64.40% (73.23%)	57.81% (82.12%)	89.67% (79.36%)

これも微妙だ^^; 葉255に戻して率0.008、分割数63に戻す。NDCG@1=0.7813 NDCG@3=0.7853 NDCG@5=0.7986 NDCG@10=0.8530と全てダウンでダメダメなのは承知なんだが、何故こんな選択してみたかは、実は多分メモリギリギリなのが分かってるからで、案の定、連続で検証しようとするとOOMです。一旦アプリ閉じて再起動すれば検証出来てるけど、それは好ましい事じゃないんだよね。もっと軽いモデルで精度を上げなきゃと思うから多分新たな特徴量を検討しなきゃダメかも。

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.79% (81.50%)	27.59% (82.29%)	27.64% (79.09%)	32.50% (103.42%)	36.99% (85.30%)	29.67% (83.52%)	26.33% (80.48%)	58.03% (76.23%)
複勝	59.02% (84.74%)	58.79% (84.33%)	58.81% (84.80%)	65.00% (89.67%)	71.69% (89.63%)	64.03% (84.68%)	56.20% (84.32%)	89.29% (82.74%)
枠連	16.39% (87.16%)	16.82% (98.02%)	15.57% (76.39%)	23.23% (103.84%)	-- (--)	17.80% (81.09%)	14.87% (83.65%)	30.82% (74.48%)
馬連	12.62% (80.25%)	13.08% (83.86%)	11.73% (75.30%)	18.33% (97.25%)	22.83% (58.13%)	15.08% (82.22%)	10.88% (81.59%)	25.56% (70.09%)
ワイド	27.29% (84.85%)	28.72% (86.32%)	25.58% (83.59%)	30.83% (81.33%)	49.32% (80.73%)	32.14% (82.00%)	23.69% (86.17%)	50.07% (79.02%)
馬単	6.83% (79.21%)	6.93% (83.96%)	6.44% (71.10%)	10.83% (123.50%)	11.42% (48.77%)	8.16% (88.34%)	5.97% (78.91%)	25.56% (66.79%)
三連複	6.05% (70.41%)	7.05% (67.29%)	4.98% (74.17%)	6.67% (62.83%)	19.18% (68.26%)	8.53% (69.33%)	4.04% (70.97%)	17.05% (79.87%)
三連単	1.24% (66.10%)	1.42% (98.03%)	1.15% (38.15%)	0.00% (0.00%)	2.74% (33.56%)	1.85% (35.97%)	0.91% (79.08%)	17.05% (74.33%)
総合	60.23% (79.17%)	60.04% (85.25%)	60.02% (72.80%)	65.83% (82.26%)	75.80% (66.34%)	64.52% (75.90%)	57.40% (80.64%)	89.61% (74.53%)

まあ、落ちてはいるけど覚悟の上で、どっちのモデルもリリースには不向きなのは分かった。

Out of Memory回避

以前からJV-Linkの32bit縛りに悩まされていたのは、せっかく出た高評価のモデルも予測として32bitアプリでロードするとOut of Memory(OOM)となり悔しい思いをしてきました。その為に一時はさらだ64も作成して、確かに64bit環境では問題なくモデルが使える事も確認してます。ただ、64bit環境で予測しても、リアルタイムでオッズ等が取れないもどかしさとかで、最近は一旦さらだ64は凍結し、さらだでの高精度狙えるモデルを色々と試してたどり着いたランキング学習がOOMで使えないのをGeminiに相談すると、32bitアプリはデフォルトでは最大2GBの壁となっているのを

<PropertyGroup>
  ...
  <LargeAddressAware>true</LargeAddressAware>
</PropertyGroup>

をプロジェクトに追加すれば最大4GBに出来ると教えてもらい試したら、それまでOOMで検証不能だったモデルも可能に! NDCG@1=0.7803 NDCG@3=0.7847のモデル(26.9MB)は

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.93% (79.89%)	27.18% (80.79%)	28.31% (76.99%)	33.33% (107.00%)	36.53% (86.44%)	30.04% (87.12%)	26.45% (76.89%)	58.61% (78.61%)
複勝	59.59% (85.44%)	59.56% (85.75%)	59.11% (84.67%)	66.67% (91.75%)	71.69% (89.54%)	65.51% (87.32%)	56.53% (84.45%)	89.90% (83.93%)
枠連	15.70% (82.59%)	16.04% (91.42%)	14.93% (73.15%)	23.23% (106.87%)	-- (--)	16.93% (75.72%)	14.30% (79.63%)	31.86% (82.52%)
馬連	12.45% (81.67%)	12.79% (84.80%)	11.66% (76.86%)	18.33% (103.58%)	24.20% (66.67%)	14.09% (75.01%)	10.84% (85.25%)	26.43% (83.64%)
ワイド	27.81% (91.24%)	28.72% (93.82%)	26.43% (88.11%)	34.17% (98.00%)	51.60% (85.39%)	32.51% (85.46%)	24.10% (93.70%)	50.22% (82.54%)
馬単	6.92% (75.90%)	6.63% (72.36%)	6.99% (76.51%)	10.00% (117.42%)	13.70% (66.94%)	7.42% (82.41%)	6.14% (74.54%)	26.43% (79.71%)
三連複	6.40% (77.99%)	7.46% (71.28%)	5.16% (84.06%)	8.33% (89.08%)	17.35% (63.97%)	9.27% (77.56%)	4.45% (79.39%)	16.93% (74.88%)
三連単	1.27% (41.59%)	1.42% (34.52%)	1.15% (37.23%)	0.83% (200.75%)	3.65% (47.58%)	1.73% (61.84%)	0.91% (34.29%)	16.93% (67.69%)
総合	60.78% (76.96%)	61.16% (76.53%)	59.90% (74.71%)	67.50% (114.47%)	77.17% (72.36%)	66.13% (79.06%)	57.52% (76.02%)	90.22% (74.12%)

あと一歩精度上がれば目標に届く所まで来てます。障害は得意らしい(笑)

追記 2026.6.15 13:38
ここまでの最高モデルはNDCG@1=0.7824 NDCG@3=0.7868で

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	26.43% (74.86%)	26.64% (76.36%)	26.06% (72.83%)	28.33% (81.67%)	38.36% (89.00%)	26.58% (70.22%)	25.30% (75.13%)	57.08% (76.74%)
複勝	58.15% (83.58%)	58.50% (83.67%)	57.05% (82.77%)	68.33% (93.42%)	74.43% (93.93%)	61.68% (80.54%)	55.50% (83.66%)	89.52% (82.84%)
枠連	15.18% (78.76%)	15.54% (86.27%)	14.29% (70.34%)	24.24% (105.66%)	-- (--)	16.07% (66.63%)	13.93% (77.80%)	30.63% (78.43%)
馬連	12.07% (80.13%)	12.37% (83.82%)	11.18% (74.76%)	20.00% (101.83%)	22.37% (69.13%)	13.72% (67.64%)	10.59% (85.29%)	25.27% (72.41%)
ワイド	26.37% (85.93%)	27.59% (84.02%)	24.67% (87.79%)	32.50% (87.33%)	49.32% (83.38%)	30.16% (75.72%)	23.03% (89.57%)	48.89% (78.89%)
馬単	6.74% (77.59%)	6.75% (76.01%)	6.38% (75.44%)	11.67% (129.25%)	12.33% (64.02%)	7.17% (60.90%)	6.10% (84.38%)	25.27% (68.95%)
三連複	5.76% (68.63%)	6.39% (57.73%)	4.92% (77.06%)	8.33% (106.50%)	15.07% (64.98%)	7.66% (67.24%)	4.29% (69.42%)	16.38% (72.01%)
三連単	1.27% (71.32%)	1.42% (54.99%)	1.15% (78.64%)	0.83% (200.75%)	1.83% (14.11%)	1.73% (59.00%)	1.07% (80.59%)	16.38% (65.24%)
総合	59.33% (77.58%)	59.68% (75.13%)	58.26% (77.49%)	69.17% (113.47%)	79.00% (68.36%)	62.18% (68.49%)	56.61% (80.73%)	89.78% (70.02%)

なんですが、微妙に前者に負けてますね(笑) このモデルもOOMで検証出来てなかったのですが、今やっと見れた^^ これ、一昨日(6/13)に出来てたモデルです。

追記 2026.6.15 22:43
NDCG@1=0.7817 NDCG@3=0.7854はちょっと軽め(14MB)のモデルですが

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.32% (79.23%)	26.52% (78.03%)	27.70% (78.55%)	33.33% (105.25%)	36.53% (80.41%)	29.30% (84.09%)	25.83% (77.50%)	58.06% (77.19%)
複勝	59.07% (85.04%)	58.56% (83.94%)	59.17% (85.80%)	65.00% (90.08%)	71.23% (88.77%)	65.14% (86.77%)	55.95% (84.13%)	89.58% (81.88%)
枠連	16.06% (85.24%)	16.54% (94.27%)	15.06% (75.11%)	25.25% (117.68%)	-- (--)	17.92% (87.22%)	14.42% (79.17%)	31.25% (78.15%)
馬連	12.24% (77.50%)	12.31% (78.03%)	11.60% (74.29%)	20.00% (114.17%)	23.29% (61.23%)	14.59% (86.53%)	10.47% (75.96%)	25.50% (69.97%)
ワイド	26.98% (84.08%)	27.77% (82.49%)	25.64% (84.84%)	34.17% (96.17%)	49.77% (80.37%)	33.13% (91.32%)	22.87% (82.00%)	49.09% (75.96%)
馬単	6.60% (73.40%)	6.45% (75.78%)	6.38% (66.88%)	11.67% (129.25%)	11.87% (51.46%)	7.79% (94.80%)	5.73% (68.25%)	25.50% (67.10%)
三連複	6.22% (61.37%)	7.28% (62.63%)	5.16% (60.86%)	5.83% (50.58%)	17.35% (64.25%)	9.27% (76.56%)	4.20% (56.04%)	16.58% (73.87%)
三連単	1.10% (35.58%)	1.42% (41.32%)	0.79% (17.64%)	0.83% (200.75%)	3.20% (35.07%)	1.85% (72.86%)	0.66% (23.20%)	16.58% (69.29%)
総合	60.23% (72.51%)	60.09% (74.15%)	59.96% (67.96%)	65.83% (112.89%)	74.43% (65.94%)	65.76% (85.02%)	57.11% (68.28%)	89.93% (71.57%)

これももう少しだ^^;

第67宝塚記念

ランキング学習があと少し精度アップさせたいのでもう少しと思いやってた所、ちょっと大掛かりな変更が必要になり時間が掛かってます。焦っても仕方ないので地道に進めてます。ざっくりな話として単勝27%複勝58%程度までは来てるので目標に届くと嬉しい。

ちょっとそんなので疲れたりしててあまり予想は乗り気じゃないが、グランプリだし自力予想してみました。

穴しか狙わないので(笑)

学習モデルにばかり時間取られて他のバグ潰しとかが若干滞ってます^^; 更にそもそも相対タイムも中途半端な感じなってしまったのは辛いですが、ある程度の成果は出ているかと思うので精度が更に期待出来るランキングに最善尽くしてみます。

しっかりとランキング学習

ここまでは、ざっくりと学習が動けばって感じの学習でした。これまでの回帰学習では当たり前のカテゴリ変数の扱いなんかを考慮してみた。イテレーション数3,000、葉255、率0.015、分割数127、葉の最小50、ボーダー500でNDCG@1=0.7789 NDCG@3=.7843となり

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.55% (79.98%)	27.06% (79.05%)	27.89% (79.30%)	30.00% (102.42%)	36.07% (78.26%)	27.69% (76.42%)	26.74% (81.32%)	57.45% (75.59%)
複勝	59.25% (84.40%)	58.85% (83.57%)	58.87% (84.19%)	70.00% (98.83%)	73.52% (91.69%)	63.91% (83.73%)	56.41% (83.96%)	89.67% (83.07%)
枠連	16.16% (88.23%)	16.75% (101.23%)	15.18% (75.71%)	23.23% (102.42%)	-- (--)	18.29% (86.32%)	14.42% (83.28%)	31.34% (78.95%)
馬連	12.62% (85.04%)	13.32% (94.66%)	11.54% (75.12%)	17.50% (85.67%)	23.74% (68.54%)	15.20% (87.70%)	10.75% (85.64%)	25.53% (73.76%)
ワイド	27.64% (87.94%)	28.77% (87.50%)	26.18% (88.71%)	31.67% (83.50%)	51.60% (84.06%)	32.14% (84.23%)	23.98% (89.52%)	49.46% (79.56%)
馬単	6.66% (72.51%)	6.69% (71.44%)	6.62% (72.67%)	6.67% (85.25%)	12.33% (62.42%)	7.17% (81.83%)	5.97% (70.31%)	25.53% (70.05%)
三連複	6.19% (65.65%)	7.28% (67.05%)	5.04% (64.96%)	6.67% (55.33%)	19.18% (77.35%)	7.91% (62.62%)	4.45% (65.60%)	16.47% (70.38%)
三連単	1.33% (51.03%)	1.72% (66.56%)	1.03% (38.82%)	0.00% (0.00%)	2.74% (25.62%)	1.98% (47.61%)	0.99% (54.47%)	16.47% (66.49%)
総合	60.46% (76.69%)	60.27% (80.96%)	59.96% (72.42%)	70.00% (76.10%)	78.08% (69.71%)	64.52% (76.31%)	57.52% (76.76%)	90.01% (70.74%)

これをどうやってNDCG@1をこれまで最高だった0.7824超えや更に0.8以上に持っていくか。少しいじってNDCG@1=0.7778 NDCG@3=0.7970で

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.29% (80.37%)	27.18% (79.54%)	27.40% (80.39%)	27.50% (91.83%)	38.81% (90.09%)	26.95% (73.71%)	26.37% (81.72%)	57.77% (77.58%)
複勝	58.58% (84.31%)	58.67% (84.38%)	58.14% (83.96%)	63.33% (88.33%)	72.15% (89.04%)	63.41% (83.49%)	55.75% (84.16%)	89.70% (82.71%)
枠連	16.13% (84.40%)	16.04% (92.75%)	15.69% (75.57%)	24.24% (105.96%)	-- (--)	16.93% (77.34%)	14.83% (81.39%)	30.82% (77.04%)
馬連	12.36% (81.55%)	12.37% (83.90%)	11.91% (78.05%)	18.33% (96.33%)	22.37% (58.45%)	14.09% (76.18%)	10.88% (85.42%)	25.47% (72.26%)
ワイド	26.74% (83.37%)	27.47% (81.88%)	25.64% (85.46%)	31.67% (75.83%)	47.95% (79.04%)	31.64% (83.45%)	23.20% (83.74%)	49.29% (77.10%)
馬単	6.95% (87.37%)	6.93% (86.23%)	6.87% (87.05%)	8.33% (107.83%)	12.33% (53.29%)	6.30% (66.25%)	6.67% (97.49%)	25.47% (70.36%)
三連複	6.25% (59.12%)	7.16% (56.64%)	5.22% (59.50%)	7.50% (88.92%)	19.63% (79.18%)	7.91% (65.27%)	4.49% (55.26%)	16.27% (73.85%)
三連単	1.42% (52.89%)	1.66% (60.84%)	1.22% (46.49%)	0.83% (28.75%)	3.65% (37.03%)	1.48% (38.34%)	1.19% (59.17%)	16.27% (68.67%)
総合	59.80% (76.57%)	59.86% (77.96%)	59.30% (74.55%)	65.83% (85.02%)	75.80% (69.45%)	64.28% (70.50%)	56.86% (78.54%)	90.01% (71.90%)

これはダメな修正だったorz 元に戻してイテレーション数5,000、葉255、率0.01、分割数127、葉の最小50、ボーダー500でNDCG@1=0.7795 NDCG@3=0.7845でOOM! 分割数63にするとNDCG@1=0.7805 NDCG@3=0.7847とかになるけど、やはりOOM。イテレーション数3,000に落とせばNDCG@1=0.7787 NDCG@3=0.7840で

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.50% (79.37%)	26.88% (78.62%)	27.76% (78.89%)	32.50% (96.58%)	38.81% (88.58%)	29.30% (82.94%)	25.88% (77.35%)	57.40% (76.15%)
複勝	59.16% (84.37%)	58.73% (83.78%)	58.81% (84.14%)	70.00% (95.92%)	71.23% (87.53%)	65.02% (85.91%)	56.12% (83.58%)	89.38% (82.77%)
枠連	15.83% (83.65%)	16.25% (93.43%)	15.18% (75.41%)	20.20% (75.56%)	-- (--)	17.68% (78.73%)	14.22% (79.98%)	31.31% (77.61%)
馬連	12.62% (82.15%)	13.08% (87.43%)	11.91% (77.83%)	15.83% (67.08%)	25.57% (74.79%)	14.96% (81.04%)	10.67% (83.19%)	25.73% (71.42%)
ワイド	27.81% (91.67%)	28.83% (94.68%)	26.61% (89.20%)	30.00% (83.17%)	51.14% (84.47%)	33.75% (90.25%)	23.73% (92.80%)	50.22% (79.93%)
馬単	6.89% (74.28%)	6.93% (75.68%)	6.80% (74.68%)	7.50% (49.17%)	15.07% (76.76%)	7.66% (76.14%)	5.89% (73.44%)	25.73% (67.97%)
三連複	6.11% (74.37%)	6.99% (58.84%)	5.10% (91.42%)	7.50% (59.17%)	18.72% (70.32%)	7.79% (64.45%)	4.41% (78.04%)	16.85% (74.44%)
三連単	1.39% (44.12%)	1.66% (58.04%)	1.22% (33.06%)	0.00% (0.00%)	4.11% (64.61%)	1.85% (42.69%)	0.99% (42.75%)	16.85% (70.26%)
総合	60.46% (76.65%)	60.15% (78.50%)	60.02% (75.58%)	70.83% (65.61%)	76.26% (78.15%)	65.76% (75.27%)	57.27% (76.39%)	89.67% (72.51%)

まあ、これもJV-Linkの32bit縛りの宿命だな。

ちょっと勘違いとかもあり、それらを修正してイテレーション数3,000、葉255、率0.018、分割数63、葉の最小50、ボーダー500でNDCG@1=0.7778 NDCG@3=0.7836となりOOMって最悪です。

その後のランキング予測

継続は力なりってひたすら続けてます。イテレーション数3,000、葉255、率0.015でNDCG@1=0.7798 NDCG@3=0.7862のモデルは

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	26.86% (78.15%)	26.52% (77.47%)	27.10% (77.83%)	28.33% (92.08%)	37.90% (88.63%)	27.94% (78.88%)	25.50% (76.96%)	57.02% (76.73%)
複勝	58.81% (84.73%)	58.38% (83.68%)	58.38% (84.79%)	70.83% (98.75%)	70.32% (88.31%)	63.41% (84.14%)	56.24% (84.61%)	89.64% (82.82%)
枠連	16.16% (86.69%)	15.83% (90.48%)	15.57% (80.98%)	30.30% (123.64%)	-- (--)	17.92% (77.50%)	14.54% (84.26%)	30.92% (80.31%)
馬連	12.50% (84.08%)	12.37% (85.44%)	11.91% (80.52%)	22.50% (113.92%)	20.09% (59.59%)	15.08% (76.58%)	10.96% (88.80%)	25.47% (73.73%)
ワイド	27.24% (86.20%)	27.53% (83.01%)	26.25% (88.95%)	36.67% (93.42%)	46.58% (77.99%)	32.88% (83.20%)	23.61% (87.94%)	48.83% (79.51%)
馬単	6.74% (76.75%)	6.28% (68.85%)	6.93% (83.40%)	10.83% (96.83%)	10.05% (61.37%)	7.66% (68.41%)	6.14% (80.92%)	25.47% (71.05%)
三連複	6.05% (71.01%)	6.99% (66.61%)	5.10% (76.10%)	5.83% (63.08%)	18.72% (76.53%)	7.17% (59.09%)	4.53% (74.48%)	16.38% (69.47%)
三連単	1.22% (45.12%)	1.42% (55.67%)	0.97% (34.76%)	1.67% (38.67%)	1.83% (13.93%)	1.98% (45.28%)	0.91% (47.88%)	16.38% (64.12%)
総合	60.00% (76.45%)	59.56% (76.10%)	59.60% (75.89%)	71.67% (89.30%)	73.97% (66.62%)	63.91% (71.63%)	57.44% (78.23%)	89.99% (69.74%)

これが限界かは不明だけど、もう少し精度上げたい。Copilotはもう限界で、ギブアップさせた。イテレーション数3,000、葉255、率0.012でNDCG@1=0.7810 NDCG@3=0.7861のモデルは

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.09% (81.61%)	26.64% (78.90%)	27.28% (83.09%)	30.83% (99.50%)	36.07% (86.62%)	27.81% (79.67%)	26.04% (81.81%)	56.82% (76.39%)
複勝	58.29% (84.26%)	57.73% (82.79%)	58.02% (84.81%)	70.00% (97.42%)	72.15% (90.73%)	62.42% (84.18%)	55.67% (83.70%)	89.73% (83.36%)
枠連	16.06% (87.13%)	16.04% (93.80%)	15.37% (79.36%)	27.27% (115.45%)	-- (--)	18.05% (81.57%)	14.38% (83.45%)	31.12% (79.57%)
馬連	12.39% (80.45%)	12.31% (83.55%)	11.79% (75.02%)	21.67% (111.17%)	21.92% (68.04%)	14.96% (79.48%)	10.67% (81.89%)	25.56% (72.29%)
ワイド	26.74% (86.70%)	27.18% (86.43%)	25.52% (85.54%)	37.50% (106.42%)	49.77% (81.64%)	32.01% (81.63%)	22.91% (88.85%)	49.06% (78.84%)
馬単	7.09% (81.46%)	7.10% (86.39%)	6.74% (74.71%)	11.67% (104.75%)	12.33% (77.53%)	8.03% (73.15%)	6.30% (84.59%)	25.56% (68.90%)
三連複	5.90% (61.94%)	7.05% (60.56%)	4.74% (64.39%)	5.83% (47.83%)	18.72% (82.01%)	7.42% (60.95%)	4.24% (60.46%)	16.41% (69.09%)
三連単	1.22% (54.29%)	1.60% (67.51%)	0.85% (40.59%)	0.83% (56.08%)	2.74% (112.74%)	1.73% (36.30%)	0.91% (55.01%)	16.41% (64.06%)
総合	59.54% (77.09%)	58.85% (79.70%)	59.36% (73.41%)	71.67% (91.81%)	75.34% (85.62%)	63.04% (72.12%)	56.94% (77.47%)	90.01% (69.25%)

少し精度が上がった。しかし、何が良いって、まあ、相対タイムよりは確実に精度は上で、これ、学習時間が非常に短い。AutoMLでは何時間も学習させてたけど、イテレーション数10,000とかでも30分掛からない。ただ、AutoMLではモニター機能があるので学習中のログが表示出来るけど、ランキング学習ではひたすら待つ(笑)

学習時のオプションを追加してイテレーション5,000、葉255、率0.015でNDCG@1=0.7824 NDCG@3=0.7868のモデルは残念ながらOOM(Out of Memory)。イテレーション数3,500、葉175、率0.01でNDCG@1=0.7812 NDCG@3=0.7862のモデルは

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	26.92% (78.56%)	26.52% (78.58%)	27.16% (77.32%)	29.17% (95.17%)	37.90% (92.47%)	28.31% (82.24%)	25.46% (76.08%)	56.70% (77.24%)
複勝	58.35% (83.43%)	58.67% (83.61%)	57.53% (82.72%)	65.00% (90.58%)	74.89% (95.07%)	63.29% (83.98%)	55.21% (82.19%)	89.46% (83.46%)
枠連	16.06% (85.70%)	16.18% (92.04%)	15.25% (78.93%)	27.27% (103.03%)	-- (--)	17.55% (76.76%)	14.54% (83.24%)	30.86% (77.74%)
馬連	12.36% (74.97%)	12.43% (76.20%)	11.66% (72.45%)	20.83% (92.00%)	22.83% (71.28%)	14.59% (72.45%)	10.67% (76.14%)	25.15% (71.15%)
ワイド	27.06% (85.33%)	28.24% (83.91%)	25.21% (86.53%)	35.83% (88.83%)	50.68% (85.02%)	32.14% (82.97%)	23.24% (86.14%)	49.00% (79.25%)
馬単	6.69% (70.54%)	6.28% (63.92%)	6.80% (77.03%)	10.83% (74.67%)	11.87% (79.13%)	7.29% (59.69%)	6.02% (73.38%)	25.15% (69.00%)
三連複	5.93% (67.47%)	6.81% (63.17%)	4.92% (71.86%)	7.50% (67.75%)	15.98% (61.92%)	8.41% (78.69%)	4.20% (64.23%)	16.18% (66.09%)
三連単	1.39% (65.56%)	1.66% (56.86%)	1.09% (74.39%)	1.67% (67.08%)	3.20% (124.47%)	1.85% (36.46%)	1.07% (69.95%)	16.18% (59.89%)
総合	59.54% (76.32%)	59.86% (74.42%)	58.75% (77.65%)	65.83% (84.48%)	78.54% (87.05%)	63.78% (71.65%)	56.41% (76.42%)	89.81% (66.87%)

これじゃ精度が落ちたorz でNモデルはOOM。ちょっとオプション増やしてイテレーション数3.500、葉255、率0.01、分割数111、葉の最小50だとNDCG@1=0.7815 NDCG@3=0.7858のモデルは

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.06% (80.47%)	27.12% (79.40%)	26.85% (80.06%)	29.17% (101.00%)	40.18% (98.81%)	27.19% (75.19%)	25.83% (80.57%)	56.85% (77.53%)
複勝	58.73% (84.67%)	58.61% (84.06%)	58.14% (84.49%)	68.33% (95.83%)	73.97% (94.38%)	62.30% (82.05%)	56.16% (84.67%)	89.52% (83.36%)
枠連	15.70% (85.17%)	16.11% (92.68%)	14.68% (76.87%)	26.26% (110.30%)	-- (--)	17.55% (78.54%)	14.09% (81.98%)	31.25% (79.81%)
馬連	12.19% (81.42%)	12.73% (87.41%)	11.12% (73.85%)	19.17% (101.00%)	21.92% (70.50%)	14.96% (81.52%)	10.38% (82.37%)	25.38% (78.77%)
ワイド	27.15% (88.37%)	28.54% (89.37%)	25.27% (87.30%)	33.33% (89.08%)	48.40% (81.37%)	33.00% (87.18%)	23.28% (89.40%)	49.09% (80.89%)
馬単	6.66% (76.91%)	6.87% (81.64%)	6.32% (72.32%)	8.33% (73.17%)	12.33% (82.88%)	7.42% (67.03%)	5.89% (79.66%)	25.38% (75.77%)
三連複	5.99% (73.21%)	6.99% (61.69%)	4.92% (85.65%)	6.67% (64.75%)	17.35% (72.05%)	8.41% (76.18%)	4.16% (72.32%)	16.64% (73.68%)
三連単	1.30% (49.74%)	1.60% (67.31%)	1.09% (35.34%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.20% (119.09%)	1.48% (27.54%)	1.07% (50.88%)	16.64% (67.69%)
総合	59.88% (77.39%)	59.68% (80.19%)	59.48% (74.47%)	68.33% (78.70%)	77.17% (88.44%)	62.79% (71.91%)	57.35% (77.73%)	89.87% (72.89%)

微妙な変化かなぁ。Geminiの助言で評価部分の変更してみた。イテレーション数3.500、葉255、率0.01、分割数127、葉の最小50だとNDCG@1=0.7777 NDCG@3=0.7836と評価自体も落ちてモデルは

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.35% (80.41%)	26.94% (78.50%)	27.76% (81.54%)	27.50% (91.75%)	33.79% (75.11%)	29.17% (81.42%)	26.16% (80.55%)	57.89% (76.61%)
複勝	58.64% (83.74%)	58.44% (83.41%)	58.38% (83.58%)	65.00% (90.42%)	69.41% (86.03%)	63.78% (83.50%)	55.95% (83.61%)	89.46% (82.18%)
枠連	16.22% (84.51%)	16.32% (89.38%)	15.69% (79.20%)	23.23% (99.60%)	-- (--)	17.18% (73.97%)	14.87% (82.66%)	31.93% (80.30%)
馬連	12.42% (79.36%)	12.37% (76.60%)	12.03% (81.54%)	18.33% (88.17%)	22.37% (61.00%)	14.34% (74.59%)	10.88% (82.60%)	25.96% (73.46%)
ワイド	27.26% (88.33%)	27.83% (88.06%)	26.37% (89.24%)	31.67% (79.67%)	47.95% (78.54%)	32.51% (83.82%)	23.65% (90.72%)	49.35% (78.84%)
馬単	6.40% (70.44%)	6.16% (66.72%)	6.62% (73.59%)	6.67% (79.50%)	11.42% (58.49%)	6.80% (68.07%)	5.81% (72.30%)	25.96% (70.83%)
三連複	6.19% (72.52%)	6.63% (58.27%)	5.59% (85.94%)	8.33% (88.92%)	18.72% (66.30%)	7.91% (69.07%)	4.49% (74.23%)	17.02% (70.09%)
三連単	1.27% (34.32%)	1.36% (35.89%)	1.28% (35.21%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.65% (41.78%)	1.73% (39.21%)	0.91% (32.01%)	17.02% (64.16%)
総合	59.91% (74.06%)	59.80% (71.74%)	59.54% (76.22%)	66.67% (76.75%)	74.89% (66.75%)	64.40% (71.71%)	57.07% (74.84%)	89.75% (69.68%)

当然ながら下げてる感じだけど、微妙な変化で単勝27.35%や枠連、馬連、ワイド、三連複は微増だけど回収率が下がってる。更に評価部を変えてみた所、NDCG@1=0.7789 NDCG@3=0.7843となり、

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.81% (80.32%)	27.53% (80.14%)	27.89% (79.21%)	30.83% (98.17%)	37.44% (87.21%)	29.17% (81.17%)	26.49% (79.42%)	57.48% (75.65%)
複勝	59.83% (85.39%)	59.92% (85.53%)	59.30% (84.90%)	65.83% (90.17%)	73.06% (92.24%)	64.89% (85.77%)	56.94% (84.65%)	89.81% (82.87%)
枠連	16.71% (89.15%)	16.89% (97.10%)	15.95% (80.53%)	26.26% (112.93%)	-- (--)	18.05% (82.99%)	15.20% (85.54%)	31.28% (78.30%)
馬連	13.00% (85.52%)	13.32% (89.44%)	12.15% (80.61%)	20.00% (97.67%)	24.20% (70.27%)	15.08% (82.73%)	11.29% (87.82%)	25.59% (71.88%)
ワイド	27.96% (92.89%)	28.60% (93.57%)	26.91% (91.95%)	33.33% (96.17%)	50.23% (83.06%)	32.26% (84.87%)	24.52% (96.45%)	49.67% (79.13%)
馬単	7.03% (79.00%)	6.75% (77.00%)	7.11% (78.63%)	10.00% (112.33%)	13.24% (76.26%)	7.54% (82.66%)	6.30% (78.03%)	25.59% (68.44%)
三連複	6.19% (75.31%)	7.22% (62.40%)	5.10% (90.72%)	6.67% (45.75%)	19.63% (83.52%)	7.66% (64.50%)	4.49% (78.18%)	16.73% (76.21%)
三連単	1.27% (39.51%)	1.66% (51.78%)	0.97% (29.81%)	0.00% (0.00%)	2.28% (21.19%)	1.85% (45.90%)	0.99% (39.04%)	16.73% (71.93%)
総合	61.13% (78.24%)	61.34% (79.25%)	60.51% (77.03%)	66.67% (80.95%)	77.63% (73.39%)	65.64% (76.32%)	58.14% (78.64%)	90.10% (73.53%)

複勝が59.83は目標の6割にあと少し!評価部のボーダー(400)を変えてNDCG@1=0.7789 NDCG@3=0.7855となると、

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.35% (79.44%)	27.18% (79.07%)	27.46% (78.23%)	28.33% (101.17%)	36.07% (81.42%)	28.68% (81.30%)	26.12% (78.64%)	57.08% (74.68%)
複勝	59.42% (85.35%)	59.38% (84.72%)	58.93% (85.29%)	66.67% (95.00%)	73.06% (91.96%)	63.78% (84.38%)	56.74% (85.08%)	89.49% (82.47%)
枠連	16.06% (86.02%)	15.97% (91.75%)	15.63% (80.02%)	24.24% (99.80%)	-- (--)	17.06% (76.74%)	14.71% (83.65%)	30.92% (75.61%)
馬連	12.45% (80.53%)	12.37% (81.22%)	11.97% (78.70%)	20.00% (95.92%)	21.92% (62.10%)	14.46% (75.64%)	10.92% (83.82%)	25.41% (68.87%)
ワイド	26.98% (87.83%)	27.59% (89.10%)	26.00% (87.31%)	31.67% (76.92%)	46.12% (75.57%)	31.40% (79.21%)	23.77% (91.80%)	49.61% (77.85%)
馬単	7.06% (80.30%)	7.05% (81.92%)	6.87% (77.75%)	10.00% (92.50%)	11.87% (60.91%)	8.03% (81.27%)	6.30% (81.73%)	25.41% (65.45%)
三連複	6.05% (60.61%)	7.10% (61.34%)	4.86% (58.39%)	7.50% (80.92%)	16.89% (70.46%)	7.54% (59.32%)	4.57% (60.16%)	16.67% (72.16%)
三連単	1.36% (38.18%)	1.66% (42.77%)	1.09% (32.16%)	0.83% (56.08%)	4.11% (45.84%)	1.48% (26.95%)	1.07% (41.23%)	16.67% (67.43%)
総合	60.46% (74.63%)	60.45% (76.16%)	59.96% (72.19%)	67.50% (87.01%)	77.17% (69.75%)	64.28% (70.60%)	57.68% (75.76%)	89.78% (70.11%)

これでは逆効果なのでボーダー(600)変えてNDCG@1=0.7774 NDCG@3=0.7819はもっとダメかな?

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.93% (81.85%)	27.47% (80.65%)	28.07% (82.16%)	32.50% (94.58%)	38.36% (85.25%)	30.78% (88.32%)	26.04% (79.39%)	57.74% (76.76%)
複勝	59.28% (84.42%)	58.73% (83.60%)	59.05% (84.44%)	70.00% (95.58%)	70.78% (86.58%)	65.51% (86.42%)	56.16% (83.56%)	89.64% (83.32%)
枠連	16.16% (82.14%)	16.47% (90.69%)	15.31% (72.59%)	25.25% (112.22%)	-- (--)	17.55% (75.33%)	14.67% (79.20%)	31.31% (77.05%)
馬連	12.33% (78.48%)	12.67% (81.98%)	11.42% (72.29%)	20.00% (114.17%)	23.29% (61.64%)	14.59% (79.01%)	10.59% (79.83%)	25.85% (73.76%)
ワイド	27.09% (84.34%)	28.06% (84.19%)	25.64% (84.26%)	33.33% (87.50%)	49.32% (80.50%)	32.14% (83.00%)	23.40% (85.13%)	49.93% (80.21%)
馬単	6.86% (73.91%)	6.69% (70.11%)	6.80% (74.79%)	10.00% (115.33%)	14.16% (66.58%)	7.79% (82.32%)	5.89% (71.76%)	25.85% (71.22%)
三連複	6.08% (66.49%)	6.81% (56.56%)	5.10% (74.69%)	9.17% (93.83%)	19.18% (71.74%)	7.79% (62.92%)	4.33% (67.21%)	16.90% (73.93%)
三連単	1.51% (36.87%)	1.78% (41.30%)	1.22% (31.75%)	1.67% (44.75%)	5.02% (56.76%)	2.10% (49.72%)	0.99% (30.79%)	16.90% (69.50%)
総合	60.43% (73.44%)	60.09% (73.27%)	60.09% (72.12%)	70.00% (94.36%)	74.89% (72.72%)	66.25% (75.88%)	57.19% (72.11%)	89.90% (72.70%)

それでも検証的にはそんなに悪くなった訳じゃない。ボーダー(550)にするとNDCG@1=0.7782 NDCG@3=0.7829で

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.61% (78.89%)	27.00% (78.46%)	27.95% (78.27%)	31.67% (93.42%)	36.99% (85.53%)	28.80% (78.49%)	26.37% (78.42%)	57.92% (77.30%)
複勝	58.70% (83.50%)	58.20% (82.68%)	58.75% (84.08%)	65.00% (87.08%)	72.60% (90.37%)	63.29% (82.03%)	55.91% (83.37%)	89.55% (82.77%)
枠連	15.87% (82.98%)	16.32% (92.95%)	14.99% (72.69%)	23.23% (104.85%)	-- (--)	17.18% (78.76%)	14.42% (79.12%)	31.18% (77.01%)
馬連	12.27% (80.76%)	12.67% (84.65%)	11.42% (75.29%)	18.33% (101.08%)	21.92% (60.18%)	14.34% (79.04%)	10.71% (83.19%)	25.82% (73.47%)
ワイド	27.38% (89.91%)	28.48% (94.23%)	25.88% (85.77%)	32.50% (85.92%)	46.58% (74.47%)	33.00% (87.53%)	23.77% (92.10%)	49.67% (79.86%)
馬単	6.71% (76.38%)	6.69% (82.20%)	6.50% (67.27%)	10.00% (119.42%)	10.50% (51.42%)	7.79% (80.57%)	6.02% (77.24%)	25.82% (71.63%)
三連複	6.37% (68.93%)	7.10% (66.18%)	5.53% (72.48%)	7.50% (59.17%)	18.26% (65.66%)	7.91% (66.98%)	4.78% (69.88%)	17.05% (73.10%)
三連単	1.36% (44.88%)	1.54% (52.05%)	1.22% (39.62%)	0.83% (16.00%)	3.20% (39.45%)	1.85% (41.97%)	1.03% (46.34%)	17.05% (68.05%)
総合	59.80% (75.68%)	59.50% (78.88%)	59.72% (71.93%)	65.00% (82.89%)	76.71% (66.73%)	63.91% (74.42%)	56.90% (76.21%)	89.84% (71.92%)

微妙だ。

WEBカメラ

今の住まいになってから固定電話は契約してないので、まあ、基本通話するのはスマホではあるけど、こちらから掛ける場合、何かとハンズフリーが良いし、スマホでカレンダーとか確認したりもあるのでPCから発信する事が多いのですが、多いと言っても滅多に使わないのも確かです。

少し前にOSのクリーンインストールしてからはここまで利用した事は無かったのですが、歯科定期健診の予約の為にRakuten Link立ち上げて試すもマイクが繋がってないよって感じで発信出来ない。え?って事でこれまで利用していたMicrosoft LifeCam HD-3000を見ると確かに本来はパイロットランプが点灯してたと思うが、消えてる。まあね、これ2013年に2千円未満で購入してます。13年程度利用してれば故障しても不思議ではないです。で、新たなWEBカメラを探すにあたり、滅多にWEBカメラとして使う事はないのでなんでも良い気もしたけど、それでも何かでZoomとか使わなきゃならない事もあるかもだし、そもそも、もう随分前からWindowsでもHelloとかの生体認証はあったりするが、ハードが無かった訳で、先日のOSのクリーンインストールでも、自動ログイン設定で悩んだりもした事もあり、Windows Hello対応で探し、コスト的にもギリなELECOM UCAM-CF20FBBKを楽天で7,660円で購入してみた。2021年発売でメーカー的には既に終売品ですが、何年か壊れずに使えれば良いかなっと。

ユーザーマニュアルは付属せず、ネットで確認して設定すれば、まあ、Windows10とかではドライバーが必要だったりもしたようだけど、Windows 11では特に自動認識してくれて、顔認証設定は当たり前ですが、Windowsの設定から行いました。特に問題なく行けたので良かった。

第76回安田記念

ちと友人の来客とかがあり、時間がないです。まだ勝率は相対予測用のままなので今回のランキングに変更中で判定が真逆なので無視して下さい。

出来たばっかりのランキング予測に丸乗りで

何も考えずに参加(笑)

ランキング学習の初フライト

気合い入れてコーディングしてきましたが、なんとか検証出来る所まで来ました。

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	0.93% (39.29%)	0.77% (22.89%)	1.15% (58.99%)	0.00% (0.00%)	1.83% (11.83%)	1.24% (32.87%)	0.74% (43.91%)	5.30% (50.12%)
複勝	4.11% (41.77%)	4.03% (38.35%)	3.83% (43.00%)	9.17% (72.92%)	6.85% (26.12%)	6.06% (45.75%)	3.21% (41.85%)	19.33% (56.03%)
枠連	1.40% (46.26%)	1.77% (48.20%)	1.14% (47.43%)	0.00% (0.00%)	-- (--)	1.11% (40.06%)	1.40% (45.39%)	3.57% (45.95%)
馬連	0.03% (4.57%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.06% (9.59%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.12% (19.51%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.43% (25.44%)
ワイド	0.26% (6.58%)	0.41% (11.24%)	0.12% (2.28%)	0.00% (0.00%)	1.37% (16.12%)	0.25% (4.64%)	0.16% (6.37%)	1.68% (27.69%)
馬単	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.43% (28.34%)
三連複	0.06% (12.41%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.12% (26.04%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.25% (52.99%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.26% (29.22%)
三連単	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.26% (22.90%)
総合	5.21% (18.48%)	5.39% (14.38%)	4.74% (23.28%)	9.17% (9.32%)	7.76% (7.72%)	6.80% (24.48%)	4.45% (17.19%)	21.22% (29.47%)

で、まあ、単に学習もやっとエラー無く実行出来、検証も出来る所まで持ってくるのが精一杯でしたので、ここからこのモデルの実際の調整になります。しかし、こんなに外せるのかって程酷い予測結果ですね。これ、例えば、18頭立ての単勝って何も考えずに5.5%程度の確率はあるのに0.93%とか狙って外さないと出来ないレベル(笑)

あくまでも参考程度な話ですが、これ500回学習させてNDCG@1=0.7539、NDCG@3=0.7628ってモデルです。

にしても、やはり変だなって事でコードをチェックしてたら決定的なミスがorz 検証部分もそうなんですが、基本的には相対タイム関連を元に派生させる感じでやってたのでやってしまいました。相対タイム予測は予測はタイムなので小さい方が早いので小さい順に順位決めてますが、今回のランキングは数値が大きい方が強いって事で大きい順にしなきゃなのが逆に。どおりで狙って外してるレベルなんですね(笑)

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	24.17% (74.54%)	22.44% (72.05%)	25.70% (76.70%)	27.50% (80.00%)	34.70% (90.50%)	24.85% (73.86%)	22.99% (73.33%)	53.02% (75.61%)
複勝	54.04% (81.66%)	51.81% (78.04%)	55.53% (84.99%)	65.00% (86.83%)	61.64% (79.00%)	57.35% (79.36%)	52.25% (82.66%)	86.34% (81.40%)
枠連	14.05% (76.78%)	13.13% (78.56%)	14.36% (74.49%)	22.22% (87.78%)	-- (--)	14.59% (66.42%)	12.98% (75.36%)	28.88% (78.27%)
馬連	10.88% (74.87%)	10.24% (73.73%)	11.06% (75.90%)	17.50% (76.67%)	21.00% (77.85%)	11.62% (61.97%)	9.72% (78.90%)	22.75% (73.07%)
ワイド	23.94% (76.33%)	23.51% (77.51%)	23.94% (75.66%)	30.00% (68.83%)	43.38% (80.37%)	27.44% (70.63%)	21.01% (77.87%)	44.43% (76.12%)
馬単	5.76% (74.28%)	5.03% (68.57%)	6.20% (79.87%)	10.00% (78.00%)	11.87% (92.92%)	5.69% (55.44%)	5.23% (78.88%)	22.75% (69.29%)
三連複	5.33% (62.21%)	5.51% (48.82%)	5.22% (78.59%)	4.17% (25.92%)	14.61% (74.70%)	6.80% (61.59%)	4.00% (61.28%)	15.02% (72.48%)
三連単	0.93% (50.89%)	0.95% (37.02%)	0.91% (67.19%)	0.83% (22.67%)	2.28% (121.96%)	1.36% (38.58%)	0.66% (48.58%)	15.02% (70.61%)
総合	55.20% (71.37%)	52.93% (66.54%)	56.68% (76.69%)	66.67% (65.35%)	66.21% (88.19%)	58.22% (63.48%)	53.19% (72.11%)	86.63% (72.46%)

こちらが修正した結果です。これなら、ここから学習を進めれば改善の余地がありそうです。

追記 2026.6.7 10:54
2000回にしてNDCG@1=0.7536、NDCG@3=0.7643でしたが、

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	24.63% (75.91%)	23.21% (73.31%)	25.76% (76.85%)	29.17% (99.67%)	35.62% (91.64%)	25.83% (77.53%)	23.24% (73.95%)	53.34% (76.80%)
複勝	54.65% (82.57%)	52.63% (78.89%)	55.71% (85.39%)	68.33% (95.67%)	61.64% (79.27%)	59.33% (82.60%)	52.45% (82.86%)	86.08% (81.27%)
枠連	14.28% (81.49%)	13.34% (86.09%)	14.61% (77.27%)	22.22% (83.13%)	-- (--)	14.96% (77.47%)	13.14% (77.66%)	28.88% (77.72%)
馬連	11.11% (94.45%)	10.54% (112.09%)	11.30% (78.11%)	16.67% (70.42%)	20.09% (61.46%)	11.87% (65.96%)	10.05% (106.93%)	23.07% (76.53%)
ワイド	24.23% (81.99%)	23.80% (87.91%)	24.42% (77.48%)	27.50% (60.58%)	43.38% (85.98%)	27.56% (72.13%)	21.38% (84.92%)	44.34% (77.46%)
馬単	6.31% (79.01%)	5.86% (74.66%)	6.68% (85.04%)	7.50% (57.58%)	12.79% (77.95%)	6.67% (63.07%)	5.60% (84.42%)	23.07% (73.43%)
三連複	5.59% (67.55%)	5.98% (67.66%)	5.29% (70.46%)	4.17% (25.92%)	13.70% (67.53%)	6.80% (63.24%)	4.45% (68.98%)	14.70% (68.27%)
三連単	1.33% (66.18%)	1.42% (82.86%)	1.28% (52.24%)	0.83% (22.67%)	1.83% (42.10%)	1.85% (79.26%)	1.11% (64.00%)	14.70% (66.14%)
総合	55.86% (78.61%)	53.88% (82.87%)	56.93% (75.35%)	69.17% (64.04%)	66.21% (72.28%)	60.20% (72.65%)	53.48% (80.47%)	86.34% (70.75%)

ほんのり改善って感じかな。