Geminiに相談しながらパラメーター調整したりして進めてますが、諦めが早い! まだまだだと思うのに、これがパラメーター調整での限界ですねっとか言って試そうとしない^^; まあね、言ってもAIなんて人間の頭脳には到底及ばないレベルなんだよね。ただね、ちょっと膨大なデータを超高速に分析したりとかは進化したので、こちらがサラッと質問すれば膨大なネット上の情報から最適解を言ってくれるのはありがたい部分はある。しかし、ネット上に最適解が無い時に、独自に適当なウソを言う(笑) 誰だよ、そんなAI作って巨万の富を得てる奴!
ちょっと自分のブログ遡り、どんなパラメーター調整してたか確認してちょっと良い感じだった以前の奴を拾ってみた。いや、CSVデータの時系列分割にしてから精度が上がらないから、その突破口のヒントみたいなのをね。
NumberOfLeaves: 303
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.015
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 31
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.80乗に0～1000点
先月辺りに試してたパラメーターで20回やってみると
[Loop 9] NDCG@1 = 0.7651
[Loop 9] NDCG@3 = 0.7722
[Loop 9] NDCG@5 = 0.7877
[Loop 9] NDCG@10 = 0.8481
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 26.37% (82.84%) |
25.34% (80.35%) |
27.04% (84.67%) |
31.67% (92.75%) |
37.90% (93.20%) |
28.06% (87.08%) |
24.76% (80.49%) |
56.56% (79.63%) |
| 複勝 | 57.68% (84.86%) |
57.61% (85.25%) |
57.35% (84.68%) |
63.33% (81.67%) |
70.78% (89.68%) |
63.29% (87.03%) |
54.64% (83.70%) |
88.57% (82.66%) |
| 枠連 | 15.12% (81.63%) |
14.90% (89.57%) |
14.99% (74.68%) |
20.20% (79.19%) |
-- (--) |
17.43% (82.68%) |
13.39% (76.10%) |
30.53% (78.81%) |
| 馬連 | 11.90% (76.44%) |
12.14% (84.40%) |
11.36% (68.97%) |
15.83% (66.83%) |
24.20% (72.69%) |
14.71% (85.11%) |
9.85% (73.89%) |
25.07% (73.43%) |
| ワイド | 26.14% (81.68%) |
26.76% (82.74%) |
25.27% (81.40%) |
29.17% (70.58%) |
49.77% (93.11%) |
32.01% (87.12%) |
22.04% (78.84%) |
47.26% (79.08%) |
| 馬単 | 6.14% (69.47%) |
6.04% (73.82%) |
6.01% (63.33%) |
9.17% (92.50%) |
11.42% (59.59%) |
7.54% (78.84%) |
5.19% (67.24%) |
25.07% (70.89%) |
| 三連複 | 6.48% (74.03%) |
6.87% (62.36%) |
6.20% (88.21%) |
5.00% (43.83%) |
18.72% (79.22%) |
9.52% (94.92%) |
4.37% (66.60%) |
15.05% (71.34%) |
| 三連単 | 1.39% (53.58%) |
1.42% (45.98%) |
1.40% (64.11%) |
0.83% (16.00%) |
3.20% (61.87%) |
2.10% (70.27%) |
0.99% (47.26%) |
15.05% (65.32%) |
| 総合 | 58.81% (75.48%) |
58.73% (75.26%) |
58.51% (76.27%) |
64.17% (67.67%) |
75.80% (78.48%) |
63.91% (84.13%) |
55.58% (71.76%) |
88.89% (70.51%) |
相変わらずNDCGは低いが、的中率は昨夜のよりは全然良い。この当時はまだ乗数を上げてた頃ね。遅くなったし、今日は退院後初出勤で疲れてるのでこの位にして。
追記 2026.8.29 5:36
NumberOfLeaves: 303
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 31
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点
寝る前にこれ40回スタートしてました。上の逆の乗数0.95です。
[Loop 9] NDCG@1 = 0.7671
[Loop 9] NDCG@3 = 0.7741
[Loop 9] NDCG@5 = 0.7888
[Loop 9] NDCG@10 = 0.8492
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 26.19% (80.59%) |
25.64% (78.97%) |
26.12% (80.90%) |
35.00% (99.25%) |
36.99% (93.33%) |
28.80% (85.03%) |
24.35% (77.96%) |
55.89% (77.74%) |
| 複勝 | 57.51% (83.91%) |
56.84% (82.65%) |
57.47% (84.81%) |
67.50% (89.33%) |
67.12% (83.33%) |
63.66% (86.79%) |
54.59% (83.00%) |
88.51% (82.56%) |
| 枠連 | 15.38% (85.16%) |
14.83% (92.41%) |
15.18% (75.10%) |
26.26% (141.72%) |
-- (--) |
17.18% (87.81%) |
13.80% (78.87%) |
30.86% (79.77%) |
| 馬連 | 11.92% (82.25%) |
11.72% (84.09%) |
11.66% (77.94%) |
18.33% (115.42%) |
22.37% (60.50%) |
13.60% (78.81%) |
10.42% (85.36%) |
25.21% (75.63%) |
| ワイド | 26.05% (84.06%) |
26.29% (88.25%) |
25.33% (79.53%) |
32.50% (87.25%) |
47.49% (88.90%) |
31.40% (82.18%) |
22.33% (84.25%) |
47.81% (77.64%) |
| 馬単 | 6.40% (77.17%) |
6.22% (80.18%) |
6.14% (70.83%) |
12.50% (121.67%) |
11.87% (55.98%) |
6.80% (79.88%) |
5.77% (78.17%) |
25.21% (73.34%) |
| 三連複 | 5.90% (61.69%) |
6.51% (49.56%) |
5.41% (76.75%) |
4.17% (25.75%) |
16.89% (74.38%) |
8.41% (70.90%) |
4.08% (57.47%) |
15.34% (65.36%) |
| 三連単 | 1.39% (51.90%) |
1.60% (42.73%) |
1.28% (65.10%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
4.11% (63.93%) |
1.73% (48.73%) |
1.03% (51.87%) |
15.34% (59.50%) |
| 総合 | 58.73% (75.71%) |
58.38% (74.48%) |
58.38% (76.38%) |
68.33% (83.78%) |
72.15% (74.34%) |
64.28% (77.52%) |
55.67% (74.62%) |
88.83% (67.42%) |
[Loop 10] NDCG@1 = 0.7681
[Loop 10] NDCG@3 = 0.7739
[Loop 10] NDCG@5 = 0.7890
[Loop 10] NDCG@10 = 0.8495
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 26.40% (82.71%) |
25.75% (80.73%) |
26.67% (83.43%) |
31.67% (100.58%) |
36.53% (95.39%) |
27.81% (85.20%) |
25.01% (80.73%) |
55.92% (77.71%) |
| 複勝 | 57.37% (84.11%) |
56.60% (82.90%) |
57.84% (85.41%) |
61.67% (83.33%) |
68.49% (88.86%) |
62.79% (86.40%) |
54.55% (82.92%) |
88.45% (81.80%) |
| 枠連 | 15.48% (81.01%) |
15.05% (84.65%) |
15.44% (75.17%) |
22.22% (122.22%) |
-- (--) |
17.06% (81.57%) |
13.97% (75.69%) |
30.82% (79.62%) |
| 馬連 | 12.07% (75.50%) |
11.96% (76.57%) |
11.73% (71.89%) |
18.33% (109.83%) |
24.66% (80.05%) |
14.09% (81.01%) |
10.26% (73.25%) |
24.95% (73.10%) |
| ワイド | 26.37% (82.12%) |
26.47% (79.79%) |
25.94% (84.61%) |
30.83% (80.67%) |
49.77% (94.11%) |
31.27% (84.65%) |
22.62% (80.19%) |
47.47% (75.92%) |
| 馬単 | 6.51% (74.58%) |
6.57% (84.18%) |
6.01% (62.71%) |
12.50% (102.42%) |
12.33% (78.49%) |
7.42% (79.12%) |
5.69% (72.72%) |
24.95% (71.48%) |
| 三連複 | 5.85% (61.37%) |
6.45% (47.05%) |
5.16% (76.40%) |
6.67% (56.83%) |
18.26% (75.34%) |
8.78% (73.09%) |
3.75% (56.21%) |
15.37% (65.85%) |
| 三連単 | 1.24% (45.88%) |
1.60% (56.84%) |
0.91% (33.89%) |
0.83% (56.08%) |
4.11% (145.11%) |
2.35% (62.94%) |
0.62% (31.24%) |
15.37% (61.36%) |
| 総合 | 58.64% (73.31%) |
58.02% (73.86%) |
58.87% (71.67%) |
64.17% (88.25%) |
73.52% (93.91%) |
63.66% (79.25%) |
55.62% (69.12%) |
88.65% (67.82%) |
40回でも結局この2つが良い感じだけで、残りはもう一つ伸びてない。たまたまなのか、20回位までが良いのか。
[Loop 24] NDCG@1 = 0.7686
[Loop 24] NDCG@3 = 0.7736
[Loop 24] NDCG@5 = 0.7893
[Loop 24] NDCG@10 = 0.8496
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 26.63% (82.03%) |
25.99% (80.83%) |
26.79% (81.38%) |
33.33% (108.00%) |
38.36% (98.72%) |
27.81% (83.70%) |
25.18% (79.98%) |
56.27% (78.43%) |
| 複勝 | 57.74% (84.33%) |
57.49% (83.61%) |
57.72% (85.10%) |
61.67% (83.83%) |
70.32% (90.00%) |
62.92% (85.74%) |
54.88% (83.35%) |
88.42% (81.96%) |
| 枠連 | 15.22% (80.62%) |
14.62% (83.60%) |
15.12% (74.38%) |
25.25% (137.47%) |
-- (--) |
17.06% (76.59%) |
13.64% (76.85%) |
31.38% (84.45%) |
| 馬連 | 11.69% (74.60%) |
11.49% (77.02%) |
11.42% (69.61%) |
18.33% (109.08%) |
23.74% (77.21%) |
13.72% (72.18%) |
9.93% (75.18%) |
25.15% (76.16%) |
| ワイド | 25.93% (79.36%) |
26.17% (79.52%) |
25.27% (79.25%) |
31.67% (78.67%) |
48.40% (82.69%) |
30.53% (78.70%) |
22.37% (79.28%) |
47.26% (77.31%) |
| 馬単 | 6.37% (70.22%) |
6.10% (71.12%) |
6.14% (65.25%) |
13.33% (125.83%) |
13.24% (84.47%) |
7.29% (70.47%) |
5.44% (68.85%) |
25.15% (74.76%) |
| 三連複 | 6.25% (67.79%) |
6.69% (53.24%) |
5.77% (83.51%) |
6.67% (56.83%) |
18.26% (78.31%) |
8.78% (75.98%) |
4.33% (64.11%) |
15.11% (62.55%) |
| 三連単 | 1.30% (51.98%) |
1.60% (56.22%) |
0.97% (46.17%) |
1.67% (72.08%) |
3.20% (122.83%) |
1.61% (42.35%) |
1.03% (48.80%) |
15.11% (57.03%) |
| 総合 | 59.10% (73.78%) |
58.97% (72.92%) |
58.93% (73.07%) |
63.33% (95.56%) |
75.34% (90.61%) |
63.66% (73.21%) |
56.12% (72.05%) |
88.77% (66.39%) |
これは今回のNDCG@10で選んだ場合。なんしても、40回だとやはり5時間掛かる。次はイテレーション数少し上げ、学習率下げたいから回数は減らそうかな。
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