相変わらずのMicrosoftクオリティ

先週末はアプリの新たな機能実装してたのでリリース準備してました。既に随分前にアプリのプラットフォームは.NET10に移行してました。Visual Studioのデバッグでは全く問題なく普通にリリースビルドの発行してインストーラー準備。まあ、念の為のそのリリースビルドをこちらの環境で試すとアプリ事吹っ飛ぶorz 慌ててリリース中止して原因追及。

今回もAIに頼ってましたが、今回の原因はAIではなく、Microsoftです。まあ、別に驚きませんけどね。もう何十年もMicrosoftにはやられてますからね。驚くのは、Visual Studioでデバッグ時には問題ない。いたる所にtry...catchとかで即死は防止してると思ったが、そんのものともせずに吹っ飛びました。原因追及時にはCopilotに参戦してもらい、原因特定には大昔からの1行毎にPrint(笑) まあ、この時代ではMessageBoxでって事で原因は特定。その対処としてCopilotは.NET10でのリリースビルド作成時のVisual Studioのバグだと。確かにコードは一切変えずに.NET9にしてリリースビルド作成すれば全く問題なく走る。

ああ、そういえば、少し前にMicrosoftの開発チーム(?)とかから俺の開発状態をモニターしたい的な案内があったがスルーしてる。そうだ、また、クレーム入れようかな(笑) これまでにも何度か入れてますけど、決して良い反応は無いのがMicrosoftクオリティだからね。何度も助けてあげてるのに、そんなのも無視だし。

何にしても、最悪なのが今回ユーザー様方には多大な迷惑をかけている事。.NET10に移行するってランタイム入れてもらってるのに、時代に逆行して古いプラットフォームを再度インストールしてもらうお願いをする。まあ、一般ユーザー様方は俺みたいに何度もOSのクリーンインストールとかしなければ、古いのも残ってるかもだけど^^;

でもさ、アプリが吹っ飛ぶ様な状況が起きるものを正式リリースしてるのもどうなのかなぁって思います。いや、俺もバグ含んだアプリを何度もリリースしてるので偉そうな事は言えないけどね。

自分自身も気を引き締めてバグでユーザー様に迷惑かけない様に努めますm(__)m

何の為に競馬するの?

本当に単純な話として、なんで馬券買うの? これってスタンスの違いはあるとは思うけど、基本的にギャンブルで、純粋な競馬ファンも居るのは分かりますが金儲けです。永遠の課題の不労収入的に期待しますよね(笑)

まあ、その為のツールとして少しでも手助けになるかも的にアプリの開発してますけど、確実に儲けられるってなると簡単ではないです(笑) 仮にそんなアプリか出来たとして、リリースするの?って疑問はあるし、世の中にある競馬予想アプリでそんなアプリは存在しない?

これ、仮にあなたがそのアプリの作者だとして、確実に利益の出るアプリを開発したとして、それをあえてリリースしますか? まあ確かに、リリースする方もおられるかもですが、それはまれな話じゃないかと思います。

では、自分のアプリは? 当たり前ですが、100%勝てるものではないのでリリースしてます。でも、もしかすると100%勝てるかもなので、それにたどり着ける方はラッキー! ってのは、そもそも、自力で機械学習させて、そんなモデルに巡り合う方だとか(これはあくまでも運も含めてなので)、対応方法を独自に考えた方には可能だと。

ここ最近はモデルの学習は休憩してます。代わりにどうすれば勝てるかを検証出来る機能の実装作業してました。ちょっと前に期待値を導入してます。モデルの予測からの勝率求めて、そのオッズから得られるのですが、当たり前ですが、オッズは未知! でも、ある程度のオッズから投票するかしないかの判断すれば...

ちょっとこの辺りを攻めてみる機能追加してます^^

当然の話ではあるが

パソコン歴48年とかなると、まあ、色々とあるんだが^^; スタンドアローンからネット、まあインターネットもなんだが、モデム使ってリモートアクセスとかパソコン通信的なのも踏まえて現在に至ると、何本もLANケーブルは所持してた。貧乏性ってか、まあ、安易に繋がるじゃん的に所持してるケーブルを使い、二股したいとかだと、数十年前にもらったルーターをハブとして利用。

頻繁にネットのストリーミングは利用してるけど、速度低下からの画質が気になってたんです。まあ、当然と言えば当然の話だが、LANケーブルにも規格がある。スイッチングハブを20年も前のルーターでは規格外れorz

って事で、今回は

• エレコム EHC-LG05M-B スイッチングハブ5ポート 1,980円
• エレコム LANケーブル CAT6A 2m 578円
• エレコム LANケーブル CAT6A 1m 493円×2

を計3,744円で全てアマギフでもらう事にしました。

これが新しくするとどの程度になるのかなんですが、明日到着予定なので追記します。

追記 2026.7.12 13:11
アマゾン配送は静かにポスト投函してくれてて2時間程気が付かず、更にスマホにも出てるがコーディングしてて全く気にしてなかった。

まあ、上りが微妙だが、基本は下りが良ければ良いわけで、確かGMOはIPv6接続だったと思うからって言い方は違うかなぁとは思うが、何んしてもIPv6の下りがかなり改善されたのが吉と出るんじゃないかと。IPv4も少し改善してるし、全体的にこれなら動画視聴中に画質が落ちたりは避けられると良いかなっとね。

乗数の微調整

二乗からどうするか? 実は2.5乗は試したけど、あまり良い感じではなかったです。で、今回試したのは1.8乗でNDCG@1=0.7796 NDCG@3=0.7833で

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	28.36% (82.42%)	27.95% (84.28%)	28.49% (79.53%)	32.50% (95.92%)	37.90% (85.84%)	29.67% (85.09%)	27.07% (81.22%)	58.18% (77.92%)
複勝	59.39% (84.75%)	59.33% (84.77%)	58.87% (84.37%)	67.50% (89.50%)	71.23% (88.13%)	65.27% (86.35%)	56.37% (83.91%)	89.81% (82.64%)
枠連	16.26% (83.16%)	16.68% (90.13%)	15.25% (74.79%)	26.26% (116.97%)	-- (--)	19.16% (83.82%)	14.26% (77.66%)	30.86% (75.73%)
馬連	12.76% (80.97%)	13.03% (79.01%)	11.91% (80.29%)	20.83% (117.83%)	22.83% (61.96%)	16.19% (87.18%)	10.71% (80.61%)	25.67% (72.02%)
ワイド	27.09% (83.62%)	27.95% (80.17%)	25.76% (86.91%)	33.33% (87.00%)	50.23% (83.97%)	32.63% (80.56%)	23.16% (84.61%)	48.97% (78.26%)
馬単	6.89% (76.29%)	6.39% (65.90%)	7.11% (82.86%)	10.83% (132.25%)	12.79% (60.18%)	7.54% (75.20%)	6.14% (78.10%)	25.67% (69.64%)
三連複	6.37% (62.34%)	7.10% (58.73%)	5.53% (64.13%)	7.50% (88.58%)	19.18% (71.51%)	8.28% (59.67%)	4.57% (62.40%)	16.70% (78.23%)
三連単	1.53% (54.67%)	1.66% (46.32%)	1.46% (63.13%)	0.83% (56.08%)	3.65% (41.37%)	2.22% (45.36%)	1.11% (58.97%)	16.70% (70.99%)
総合	60.78% (75.93%)	61.16% (73.32%)	59.90% (77.01%)	67.50% (97.59%)	76.26% (70.42%)	66.13% (75.40%)	57.60% (75.93%)	90.04% (73.33%)

ちょっと時間節約で20回しかやってないけど、ダメか^^; 20回やるのに3時間20分程度です。次点としてはNDCG@1=0.7802 NDCG@3=0.7832で

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.84% (79.19%)	27.35% (79.55%)	27.95% (77.54%)	33.33% (96.67%)	39.27% (90.05%)	28.55% (75.36%)	26.58% (79.48%)	58.18% (77.50%)
複勝	58.90% (83.73%)	58.85% (83.93%)	58.44% (83.31%)	65.83% (86.67%)	72.60% (91.28%)	64.15% (83.51%)	55.91% (83.12%)	89.35% (82.76%)
枠連	15.93% (83.25%)	15.68% (90.38%)	15.76% (75.91%)	22.22% (98.48%)	-- (--)	17.18% (77.24%)	14.50% (79.97%)	31.70% (78.88%)
馬連	12.71% (82.58%)	12.73% (83.62%)	12.15% (79.44%)	20.00% (110.83%)	24.20% (68.04%)	14.59% (78.50%)	11.04% (85.25%)	26.37% (76.91%)
ワイド	27.29% (85.46%)	28.30% (84.67%)	25.88% (85.95%)	32.50% (89.75%)	50.68% (84.16%)	31.52% (81.25%)	23.77% (86.98%)	49.32% (80.55%)
馬単	6.74% (73.34%)	6.16% (65.83%)	7.05% (77.28%)	10.83% (124.83%)	11.87% (53.20%)	6.43% (58.47%)	6.39% (80.11%)	26.37% (74.48%)
三連複	6.48% (67.50%)	7.34% (66.22%)	5.47% (67.76%)	8.33% (82.00%)	17.81% (60.96%)	8.78% (71.97%)	4.70% (66.60%)	17.02% (77.05%)
三連単	1.33% (49.85%)	1.60% (57.76%)	1.15% (45.37%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.65% (40.18%)	1.61% (41.29%)	1.03% (53.58%)	17.02% (71.54%)
総合	59.94% (75.51%)	59.98% (76.20%)	59.48% (74.06%)	65.83% (85.88%)	75.80% (69.69%)	64.89% (70.95%)	56.86% (76.89%)	89.61% (74.69%)

これは全然ダメだ(笑)

二乗のボーダー500

40回スタートしてまず出たのはNDCG@1=0.7768 NDCG@3=0.7826でリニアより落ちるのはリニアから変更可能にして試した時に経験してたので想定内ですが

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.70% (78.72%)	26.82% (78.90%)	28.37% (77.62%)	30.83% (91.17%)	36.07% (78.13%)	28.31% (75.96%)	26.74% (79.70%)	58.23% (77.41%)
複勝	58.84% (83.87%)	58.44% (83.11%)	59.05% (84.79%)	61.67% (81.92%)	68.95% (83.97%)	63.66% (83.54%)	56.32% (83.97%)	89.81% (82.44%)
枠連	16.09% (82.81%)	16.39% (92.40%)	15.50% (74.11%)	21.21% (84.65%)	-- (--)	17.80% (76.84%)	14.50% (79.55%)	31.15% (75.54%)
馬連	12.74% (81.30%)	13.32% (84.55%)	11.91% (79.23%)	15.83% (63.92%)	24.66% (69.59%)	14.96% (79.54%)	10.92% (82.94%)	25.88% (69.85%)
ワイド	26.80% (82.54%)	28.00% (81.50%)	25.52% (84.65%)	27.50% (68.25%)	49.32% (79.77%)	31.64% (81.68%)	23.16% (83.08%)	49.03% (77.85%)
馬単	6.80% (69.88%)	6.39% (65.84%)	7.11% (75.15%)	8.33% (54.42%)	13.24% (63.97%)	7.05% (59.65%)	6.14% (73.82%)	25.88% (67.41%)
三連複	6.45% (61.76%)	7.40% (57.44%)	5.41% (66.56%)	7.50% (56.67%)	18.72% (64.47%)	9.15% (73.34%)	4.45% (57.65%)	17.02% (77.32%)
三連単	1.45% (47.39%)	1.48% (37.35%)	1.52% (61.15%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.65% (42.97%)	2.22% (60.57%)	0.99% (43.40%)	17.02% (70.30%)
総合	60.03% (73.41%)	59.74% (72.22%)	60.15% (75.41%)	62.50% (62.13%)	73.52% (68.98%)	64.28% (73.89%)	57.40% (73.01%)	90.07% (72.42%)

初回としてはこんなものかなぁ。確かに曲線にする事で上位入賞に重み付け出来ているのかも。

今日は勤務先の定例会で外出なので帰宅後に残りをチェックします。良いものが出ればそれを添付して次期リリースします。変更は単純に前回追加した特徴量を無視して学習させる変更だけですが、これが致命的悪影響で単勝的中率で2～3%ダウンしてるので、今晩か明日朝にする予定です。

追記 2026.7.5 7:51
NDCG@1=0.7795 NDCG@3=0.7832が

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	28.45% (84.64%)	27.41% (84.03%)	29.22% (83.66%)	32.50% (106.67%)	35.62% (78.77%)	29.91% (86.66%)	27.32% (84.50%)	58.35% (77.63%)
複勝	59.68% (85.75%)	59.21% (85.41%)	59.90% (85.83%)	63.33% (89.42%)	70.32% (87.40%)	64.40% (85.67%)	57.15% (85.62%)	89.52% (82.57%)
枠連	16.00% (82.11%)	16.47% (90.87%)	15.25% (73.94%)	21.21% (87.27%)	-- (--)	17.18% (75.74%)	14.59% (79.02%)	31.21% (77.55%)
馬連	12.65% (81.45%)	13.03% (83.90%)	11.97% (79.78%)	16.67% (69.75%)	23.74% (61.42%)	14.71% (78.68%)	10.96% (84.18%)	25.85% (73.79%)
ワイド	27.15% (87.40%)	28.42% (89.50%)	25.70% (86.00%)	29.17% (76.92%)	48.40% (78.31%)	32.51% (84.26%)	23.44% (89.26%)	49.70% (80.68%)
馬単	7.18% (77.90%)	6.87% (74.82%)	7.23% (81.28%)	10.83% (74.92%)	13.24% (59.59%)	8.16% (74.00%)	6.30% (80.85%)	25.85% (70.97%)
三連複	6.51% (78.05%)	7.40% (58.88%)	5.35% (95.43%)	10.00% (109.58%)	18.26% (64.84%)	8.90% (73.28%)	4.66% (80.83%)	17.19% (81.15%)
三連単	1.62% (71.76%)	1.84% (53.82%)	1.40% (90.14%)	1.67% (72.08%)	4.57% (47.40%)	2.47% (66.14%)	1.07% (75.83%)	17.19% (73.70%)
総合	60.78% (81.12%)	60.57% (77.37%)	60.81% (84.56%)	63.33% (85.79%)	74.43% (68.25%)	65.02% (78.05%)	58.14% (82.51%)	89.84% (75.40%)

あと一息なんだけど、NDCG@1=0.7796 NDCG@3=0.7826だと

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.61% (80.99%)	27.47% (83.90%)	27.40% (76.95%)	32.50% (95.33%)	36.07% (84.75%)	29.17% (82.14%)	26.33% (80.26%)	58.84% (78.55%)
複勝	59.02% (84.27%)	59.15% (85.07%)	58.32% (83.06%)	66.67% (89.58%)	70.32% (87.40%)	64.77% (85.53%)	56.08% (83.57%)	89.73% (82.97%)
枠連	16.97% (89.62%)	17.46% (98.67%)	16.14% (80.43%)	23.23% (106.97%)	-- (--)	18.79% (83.21%)	15.29% (86.07%)	31.54% (78.66%)
馬連	13.31% (87.59%)	13.80% (89.70%)	12.33% (84.26%)	20.00% (103.50%)	24.20% (63.29%)	16.07% (88.01%)	11.41% (89.65%)	26.08% (73.51%)
ワイド	27.70% (85.59%)	28.72% (84.16%)	26.25% (87.07%)	33.33% (85.50%)	49.77% (80.46%)	32.88% (84.75%)	23.98% (86.33%)	50.04% (79.88%)
馬単	6.89% (80.54%)	6.51% (76.26%)	6.87% (80.55%)	12.50% (140.67%)	10.50% (50.27%)	7.91% (81.62%)	6.22% (82.91%)	26.08% (71.24%)
三連複	6.57% (69.12%)	7.40% (60.92%)	5.59% (76.89%)	8.33% (77.83%)	18.26% (62.92%)	9.02% (68.62%)	4.70% (69.84%)	16.85% (83.76%)
三連単	1.45% (63.85%)	1.72% (55.23%)	1.15% (61.22%)	1.67% (221.25%)	3.20% (39.45%)	2.35% (79.63%)	0.99% (60.79%)	16.85% (77.02%)
総合	60.41% (80.07%)	60.69% (78.83%)	59.66% (78.79%)	66.67% (115.26%)	74.89% (66.93%)	65.51% (81.69%)	57.40% (79.93%)	89.96% (77.37%)

やはりちょっと落ちるなぁ^^;

NDCG

ランキング学習になってNDCGって使ってますが、これ、Normalized Discounted Cumulative Gainなんだけど、@1は1着、@3は3着までって感じで@5は掲示板にのるって意味合いなんだと思ってます。で、まあ、基本@1が高い方が良いとは思うけど、自分の元々の馬券スタイルはワイドから三連系なんです。つまり、@3重視でモデルを見た方が良いのではって事です。

そうすると、ボーダー500で40回の中でNDCG@1=0.7825 NDCG@3=0.7862は

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.90% (80.26%)	27.00% (77.49%)	28.55% (81.56%)	31.67% (101.50%)	36.99% (86.21%)	29.42% (80.48%)	26.58% (79.65%)	57.48% (76.72%)
複勝	58.84% (83.64%)	58.38% (82.31%)	58.99% (84.88%)	63.33% (85.25%)	70.32% (85.84%)	64.52% (84.44%)	55.91% (83.17%)	89.35% (82.44%)
枠連	16.42% (87.05%)	16.61% (94.06%)	15.88% (80.17%)	22.22% (96.67%)	-- (--)	17.43% (77.12%)	15.04% (84.83%)	30.89% (76.52%)
馬連	12.68% (80.10%)	13.14% (86.17%)	11.91% (73.83%)	16.67% (80.58%)	24.20% (66.35%)	14.59% (80.52%)	11.00% (81.19%)	25.62% (71.86%)
ワイド	27.24% (84.62%)	28.30% (84.93%)	25.88% (84.54%)	30.83% (81.42%)	51.14% (84.93%)	32.88% (86.59%)	23.20% (83.93%)	49.23% (77.70%)
馬単	6.98% (76.89%)	6.69% (79.89%)	7.11% (72.84%)	9.17% (90.25%)	11.87% (58.86%)	7.79% (82.01%)	6.26% (76.81%)	25.62% (69.75%)
三連複	6.16% (63.63%)	6.99% (57.60%)	5.29% (68.98%)	6.67% (75.25%)	19.63% (82.88%)	8.03% (67.39%)	4.33% (60.64%)	16.79% (81.17%)
三連単	1.36% (48.43%)	1.54% (46.07%)	1.22% (39.75%)	0.83% (200.75%)	4.11% (55.43%)	1.98% (69.12%)	0.91% (40.91%)	16.79% (77.90%)
総合	60.12% (75.42%)	59.74% (75.68%)	60.21% (73.28%)	64.17% (101.57%)	74.89% (74.36%)	65.27% (78.46%)	57.07% (73.89%)	89.70% (76.91%)

@3とは言っても、単勝もまあまあかな。ボーダー0で40回の中で2つあり、NDCG@1=0.7826 NDCG@3=0.7880は

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.03% (79.78%)	26.70% (79.33%)	27.10% (78.99%)	30.83% (96.92%)	38.81% (95.34%)	28.80% (83.10%)	25.38% (77.27%)	56.50% (76.62%)
複勝	58.58% (84.35%)	59.15% (85.14%)	57.47% (83.16%)	65.83% (89.58%)	71.23% (89.77%)	64.15% (86.34%)	55.58% (83.20%)	89.49% (82.97%)
枠連	15.48% (84.64%)	15.83% (94.14%)	14.55% (74.78%)	25.25% (106.36%)	-- (--)	16.69% (74.12%)	14.09% (82.78%)	30.24% (76.03%)
馬連	12.10% (79.59%)	12.61% (85.14%)	11.00% (72.72%)	20.00% (95.75%)	24.66% (74.16%)	14.09% (74.39%)	10.30% (81.82%)	24.95% (69.52%)
ワイド	26.98% (87.81%)	28.00% (83.88%)	25.46% (92.22%)	33.33% (82.42%)	51.14% (85.25%)	32.14% (83.23%)	23.07% (89.56%)	48.74% (77.92%)
馬単	6.31% (67.88%)	6.51% (73.90%)	5.77% (61.01%)	10.83% (77.50%)	14.16% (82.79%)	7.05% (60.22%)	5.36% (69.09%)	24.95% (66.69%)
三連複	5.90% (62.33%)	6.81% (57.98%)	4.86% (65.59%)	7.50% (79.00%)	18.26% (88.08%)	8.16% (65.76%)	4.04% (58.87%)	15.89% (69.00%)
三連単	1.27% (58.29%)	1.60% (63.65%)	0.97% (52.96%)	0.83% (56.08%)	5.02% (145.07%)	1.48% (33.54%)	0.87% (58.71%)	15.89% (62.81%)
総合	59.80% (75.46%)	60.45% (77.55%)	58.63% (72.67%)	66.67% (84.98%)	75.80% (94.35%)	64.65% (70.09%)	56.74% (75.16%)	89.73% (67.93%)

これは微妙に良くないか^^; もう1つは直前に上げたNDCG@1=0.7840 NDCG@3=0.7880で同じく微妙に良くない。

って事で、まずはボーダー500から攻めてみるかな。

CustomGains

ランキング学習に着順を予測させるのにその評価としてCustomGainsを使ってるんだけど、単純に例えば18頭立ての1着～18着に値を設定して学習させるのに1着が当然最大で18着が最低になる必要がある。最初は1着=18点～18着=1点的な単純なところから、これだと同じ1着でも、何頭立てかで差が出るので工夫始めて1着=100点～18着=0点的なに変え、現状はその10倍で、1着=1,000点にしたり、ボーダーで例えば、500にすると半分で、10着～18着は0点、1着～9着に1～1,000点を割り振る。更にこれを乗数で、1.0ならリニア、それ以上なら弧を描く感じにするって具合です。

昨夜から本日でイテレーション数3,000、葉271、率0.01、分割数47、葉の最小50、乗数1.0という条件で、ボーダーのみ0か500で40回学習させてみました。500では、NDCG@1=0.7831 NDCG@3=0.7859が

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.41% (78.69%)	27.18% (79.88%)	27.28% (76.25%)	32.50% (95.50%)	38.36% (90.87%)	30.04% (83.46%)	25.55% (76.00%)	57.66% (76.25%)
複勝	59.13% (84.28%)	58.97% (84.03%)	58.87% (84.39%)	65.00% (86.25%)	72.60% (90.91%)	65.27% (86.70%)	55.87% (82.87%)	89.49% (81.82%)
枠連	16.19% (84.84%)	16.61% (94.90%)	15.25% (73.89%)	25.25% (115.86%)	-- (--)	18.91% (86.75%)	14.26% (78.82%)	30.99% (77.16%)
馬連	12.71% (78.54%)	13.44% (85.81%)	11.48% (70.30%)	19.17% (89.17%)	25.11% (66.35%)	15.57% (83.82%)	10.63% (77.87%)	25.30% (70.47%)
ワイド	27.70% (89.74%)	28.95% (92.34%)	26.12% (87.78%)	31.67% (80.17%)	51.60% (84.66%)	33.25% (87.97%)	23.69% (90.79%)	49.03% (77.13%)
馬単	6.92% (70.47%)	6.87% (70.24%)	6.68% (68.07%)	10.83% (106.67%)	13.24% (60.32%)	8.53% (84.30%)	5.81% (66.78%)	25.30% (68.05%)
三連複	6.08% (58.46%)	7.16% (57.94%)	4.86% (57.79%)	7.50% (74.83%)	18.72% (67.53%)	8.03% (57.81%)	4.29% (57.85%)	16.67% (72.16%)
三連単	1.45% (55.38%)	1.89% (76.19%)	1.03% (23.44%)	0.83% (200.75%)	3.20% (34.25%)	2.47% (97.11%)	0.95% (43.38%)	16.67% (68.22%)
総合	60.35% (74.92%)	60.33% (79.85%)	59.96% (67.70%)	65.83% (105.93%)	76.26% (70.70%)	66.13% (83.49%)	56.98% (71.80%)	89.90% (71.01%)

ボーダー0だとNDCG@1=0.7840 NDCG@3=0.7880で

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	26.89% (78.58%)	26.70% (79.14%)	26.91% (76.94%)	29.17% (93.00%)	37.44% (88.45%)	28.92% (83.97%)	25.26% (75.89%)	57.05% (76.95%)
複勝	58.58% (84.61%)	58.91% (84.64%)	57.96% (84.65%)	62.50% (83.67%)	70.32% (86.35%)	63.41% (84.99%)	55.91% (84.33%)	89.61% (82.32%)
枠連	15.87% (87.71%)	16.04% (95.05%)	14.99% (79.26%)	27.27% (117.47%)	-- (--)	17.06% (76.00%)	14.46% (86.04%)	30.50% (76.45%)
馬連	12.33% (81.60%)	12.91% (90.22%)	11.12% (71.56%)	20.83% (97.92%)	23.29% (68.77%)	14.34% (74.15%)	10.67% (85.24%)	24.98% (69.09%)
ワイド	26.98% (86.42%)	28.18% (85.32%)	25.15% (87.46%)	35.00% (87.67%)	51.14% (84.93%)	32.26% (82.50%)	23.03% (87.86%)	48.25% (76.69%)
馬単	6.48% (70.34%)	6.69% (80.09%)	5.89% (57.50%)	11.67% (109.25%)	12.79% (78.72%)	7.42% (69.37%)	5.60% (69.91%)	24.98% (66.19%)
三連複	6.05% (62.19%)	6.99% (55.35%)	4.98% (68.75%)	7.50% (68.50%)	19.63% (81.05%)	8.28% (69.68%)	4.08% (57.99%)	15.89% (73.60%)
三連単	1.45% (61.80%)	1.66% (75.58%)	1.22% (46.43%)	1.67% (78.75%)	4.57% (145.34%)	1.85% (48.22%)	1.03% (58.79%)	15.89% (67.54%)
総合	59.88% (76.50%)	60.27% (80.37%)	59.23% (71.53%)	63.33% (91.46%)	74.43% (90.52%)	63.78% (73.61%)	57.27% (75.76%)	89.99% (70.49%)

って感じで、指数的には上でも的中率的には下がってるけど、回収率は...微妙に良いのか悪いのか。ただ、このNDCG@1=0.7840って今回の40回で3つ出てます。NDCG@1=0.7840 NDCG@3=0.7877って事で@3が違ってますが、

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.47% (81.98%)	26.94% (80.30%)	27.70% (82.35%)	31.67% (100.75%)	40.18% (95.84%)	28.31% (80.61%)	26.04% (81.19%)	56.82% (78.11%)
複勝	59.39% (86.25%)	59.44% (85.28%)	58.87% (87.02%)	65.83% (89.33%)	73.97% (92.51%)	64.03% (85.23%)	56.53% (86.02%)	89.84% (83.29%)
枠連	15.77% (84.33%)	15.61% (90.16%)	15.12% (76.91%)	28.28% (119.19%)	-- (--)	17.18% (76.33%)	14.30% (81.64%)	30.73% (79.09%)
馬連	12.13% (78.07%)	12.20% (79.19%)	11.36% (74.56%)	21.67% (110.42%)	22.83% (66.35%)	14.22% (73.63%)	10.47% (80.61%)	25.04% (73.50%)
ワイド	27.38% (87.37%)	28.48% (84.84%)	25.82% (90.16%)	33.33% (84.67%)	52.05% (87.12%)	32.39% (82.22%)	23.49% (89.11%)	48.63% (78.94%)
馬単	6.60% (69.54%)	6.57% (74.89%)	6.14% (59.91%)	13.33% (126.17%)	13.24% (75.75%)	7.17% (59.86%)	5.81% (72.20%)	25.04% (70.88%)
三連複	6.08% (64.78%)	6.81% (59.95%)	5.22% (68.79%)	7.50% (77.75%)	17.81% (72.05%)	8.41% (74.97%)	4.24% (60.73%)	15.77% (75.10%)
三連単	1.42% (68.11%)	1.72% (84.50%)	1.03% (49.72%)	2.50% (89.75%)	4.11% (132.42%)	1.85% (46.49%)	1.03% (69.52%)	15.77% (69.96%)
総合	60.67% (77.46%)	60.81% (79.67%)	60.09% (73.66%)	66.67% (99.32%)	78.08% (88.86%)	64.65% (72.42%)	57.77% (77.63%)	90.10% (73.07%)

更にNDCG@1=0.7840 NDCG@3=0.7879だと

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	26.80% (78.25%)	26.58% (78.88%)	26.79% (76.42%)	30.00% (94.33%)	37.90% (87.76%)	28.06% (79.85%)	25.38% (76.85%)	56.73% (76.95%)
複勝	58.81% (84.77%)	58.85% (84.22%)	58.26% (85.01%)	65.83% (89.33%)	72.15% (90.41%)	63.04% (83.63%)	56.20% (84.64%)	89.41% (82.84%)
枠連	15.96% (86.59%)	16.18% (95.84%)	15.06% (76.45%)	27.27% (115.96%)	-- (--)	16.44% (70.09%)	14.79% (86.59%)	30.79% (77.77%)
馬連	12.71% (81.55%)	12.91% (85.16%)	11.85% (76.18%)	21.67% (104.50%)	24.20% (73.33%)	13.84% (65.97%)	11.29% (87.49%)	25.21% (71.42%)
ワイド	27.35% (89.19%)	28.54% (92.45%)	25.58% (86.01%)	35.00% (86.92%)	51.60% (85.25%)	31.89% (81.24%)	23.65% (92.20%)	48.71% (78.06%)
馬単	6.71% (72.77%)	6.93% (81.94%)	6.20% (62.90%)	10.83% (79.08%)	11.42% (46.71%)	6.80% (52.40%)	6.26% (81.92%)	25.21% (68.64%)
三連複	6.08% (66.08%)	7.16% (67.89%)	4.98% (64.82%)	5.83% (57.92%)	16.89% (68.95%)	8.53% (71.35%)	4.29% (64.07%)	15.95% (70.47%)
三連単	1.36% (61.66%)	1.66% (83.01%)	1.15% (44.23%)	0.00% (0.00%)	2.28% (19.63%)	1.98% (50.40%)	1.07% (69.20%)	15.95% (65.00%)
総合	60.00% (77.48%)	60.09% (83.42%)	59.42% (71.48%)	66.67% (77.67%)	76.71% (67.44%)	63.54% (69.36%)	57.31% (80.37%)	89.67% (69.61%)

同じ@1でも、@3で左右されますね。

最後に追加した特徴量

なかなか伸び悩んでたので、最後に追加した特徴量

• GroupZ_PrevRank1
• GroupZ_PrevRank2
• GroupZ_PrevRank3
• GroupZ_PrevRaceAto3F1
• GroupZ_PrevRaceAto3F2
• GroupRank_HirachiShokin
• GroupRank_ShogaiShokin

これ全て無視させて学習する。イテレーション数3,500、葉271、率0.01、分割数47、葉の最小50、ボーダー500、乗数1.0でNDCG@1=0.7812 NDCG@3=0.7852というモデルを検証すると

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.99% (81.57%)	27.53% (81.50%)	28.07% (80.67%)	33.33% (94.83%)	38.36% (89.68%)	29.67% (83.02%)	26.49% (80.35%)	57.74% (76.26%)
複勝	59.28% (84.42%)	59.33% (84.80%)	58.75% (83.92%)	65.83% (86.00%)	72.15% (89.91%)	65.51% (86.59%)	56.04% (83.20%)	89.81% (82.79%)
枠連	16.03% (85.06%)	16.11% (92.07%)	15.25% (76.60%)	27.27% (119.90%)	-- (--)	17.06% (75.03%)	14.67% (83.01%)	31.15% (78.54%)
馬連	12.33% (80.53%)	12.43% (81.18%)	11.60% (77.45%)	20.83% (113.58%)	23.74% (61.64%)	14.09% (76.90%)	10.71% (83.44%)	25.88% (72.37%)
ワイド	27.18% (88.56%)	27.89% (89.38%)	25.88% (87.47%)	35.00% (92.00%)	50.68% (84.16%)	31.27% (82.65%)	23.69% (90.93%)	49.44% (77.77%)
馬単	6.98% (77.91%)	6.51% (74.20%)	6.99% (76.76%)	13.33% (145.83%)	12.79% (63.33%)	7.79% (79.04%)	6.18% (78.85%)	25.88% (69.50%)
三連複	5.90% (64.65%)	6.63% (52.29%)	4.98% (74.72%)	8.33% (100.67%)	16.44% (61.28%)	8.65% (64.61%)	4.04% (64.97%)	16.44% (78.87%)
三連単	1.45% (44.68%)	1.42% (39.19%)	1.46% (43.07%)	1.67% (144.08%)	2.74% (32.47%)	2.22% (49.88%)	1.07% (44.05%)	16.44% (74.70%)
総合	60.69% (75.80%)	60.98% (73.95%)	59.96% (75.07%)	66.67% (111.94%)	76.26% (68.92%)	66.13% (74.71%)	57.48% (76.10%)	90.13% (75.24%)

って感じに、以前のあと一息って感じに戻った^^

追記 2026.7.2 21:49
ちょっと下にあるモデルと比較する為にイテレーション数3,000にしてみると、NDCG@1=0.7808 NDCG@3=0.7854とまあ１発で出たものなのでもう少し良いものもでるとは思うが、

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.32% (78.54%)	26.76% (79.43%)	27.52% (76.57%)	32.50% (93.08%)	33.79% (79.73%)	28.80% (79.38%)	26.25% (78.15%)	58.00% (77.98%)
複勝	58.47% (83.55%)	58.20% (83.11%)	58.44% (84.17%)	62.50% (81.25%)	69.86% (85.43%)	64.03% (84.31%)	55.58% (83.12%)	89.46% (82.90%)
枠連	16.09% (85.08%)	16.32% (91.42%)	15.18% (77.27%)	27.27% (119.09%)	-- (--)	18.42% (84.85%)	14.30% (79.77%)	30.76% (75.42%)
馬連	12.50% (77.99%)	12.73% (81.50%)	11.66% (72.47%)	20.83% (104.17%)	23.74% (63.79%)	15.45% (86.56%)	10.51% (76.41%)	25.59% (71.58%)
ワイド	27.32% (87.25%)	28.66% (91.89%)	25.39% (82.34%)	35.00% (89.25%)	49.32% (79.13%)	33.37% (86.89%)	23.32% (88.10%)	49.38% (80.20%)
馬単	6.74% (73.11%)	6.45% (74.17%)	6.62% (69.33%)	12.50% (110.08%)	10.96% (51.60%)	7.79% (72.26%)	6.02% (75.34%)	25.59% (69.73%)
三連複	6.28% (63.82%)	7.16% (60.02%)	5.16% (63.04%)	9.17% (128.17%)	19.18% (72.60%)	8.78% (72.04%)	4.29% (60.29%)	16.73% (69.19%)
三連単	1.24% (40.33%)	1.36% (38.26%)	1.15% (30.77%)	0.83% (200.75%)	3.20% (39.27%)	2.10% (68.80%)	0.78% (30.94%)	16.73% (64.37%)
総合	59.86% (73.55%)	59.80% (74.63%)	59.66% (69.45%)	63.33% (115.65%)	73.97% (67.36%)	64.89% (79.39%)	56.90% (71.52%)	89.81% (69.41%)

流石にちょっと落ちた感じはするもそこまで悪いとも言えないね。しかも、下のよりはいい感じなので、やはり最後に追加した特徴量がほぼ無意味だった訳だ。

追記 2026.7.2 23:21
ボーダー0にしてNDCG@1=0.7834 NDCG@3=0.7871は

3,455R	1点	芝(1,689R)	ダート(1,646R)	障害(120R)	8頭以下(219R)	9～12頭(809R)	13頭以上(2,427R)	多点
単勝	27.50% (82.57%)	27.24% (81.34%)	27.46% (82.07%)	31.67% (106.67%)	40.64% (99.00%)	28.80% (83.34%)	25.88% (80.83%)	56.61% (76.15%)
複勝	59.25% (85.69%)	59.27% (84.65%)	58.69% (86.40%)	66.67% (90.42%)	73.97% (91.74%)	64.03% (85.61%)	56.32% (85.17%)	89.58% (83.13%)
枠連	15.87% (84.57%)	16.11% (91.32%)	14.93% (76.22%)	27.27% (121.31%)	-- (--)	17.43% (79.36%)	14.34% (80.94%)	30.82% (78.84%)
馬連	12.24% (79.40%)	12.37% (80.21%)	11.48% (76.66%)	20.83% (105.50%)	22.83% (59.86%)	14.96% (83.02%)	10.38% (79.95%)	25.12% (70.49%)
ワイド	27.35% (86.92%)	27.95% (83.04%)	26.12% (90.60%)	35.83% (91.17%)	49.77% (81.51%)	33.13% (85.35%)	23.40% (87.94%)	48.80% (79.22%)
馬単	6.54% (70.44%)	6.57% (70.50%)	6.08% (66.09%)	12.50% (129.33%)	12.33% (52.56%)	7.91% (77.33%)	5.56% (69.76%)	25.12% (67.54%)
三連複	6.16% (66.24%)	7.10% (63.13%)	5.10% (68.60%)	7.50% (77.75%)	18.72% (83.24%)	8.03% (64.78%)	4.41% (65.20%)	15.80% (69.31%)
三連単	1.30% (65.71%)	1.66% (83.00%)	0.97% (48.68%)	0.83% (56.08%)	3.20% (32.15%)	1.85% (78.70%)	0.95% (64.41%)	15.80% (65.93%)
総合	60.38% (77.60%)	60.45% (79.40%)	59.78% (74.41%)	67.50% (96.74%)	77.17% (71.44%)	64.40% (79.69%)	57.52% (76.77%)	89.90% (69.87%)

っとやはり、ボーダー0にすると指数的にはかなり上がるけど、検証的にはそれ程でもないんだよね。イテレーション数が500低いとかなりダイエットが出来るので、この線で行ければとは思うけど、ダメかなぁ。3,000だと18MB、3,500だと20MBなんだけど^^;

Microsoft Rewards 30回目

前回5月16日なので、47日目ですが先月末の何時だったか貯まったので交換しようとすると在庫切れorz 今回はMicrosoft側の在庫不足で月が替わるのを待っての申請でした。今回もamazonの600円にしましたけどね。楽天も在庫切れだったけど、これ、単にMicrosoft Rewardsの利用者が増えての現象かもね。まあ、継続します。