NumberOfLeaves: 223
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 100
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～400 = 0点, 401～1000は0.88乗に0～1000点
今朝もこれで10回スタート。
[Loop 2] NDCG@1 = 0.7834
[Loop 2] NDCG@3 = 0.7877
[Loop 2] NDCG@5 = 0.8005
[Loop 2] NDCG@10 = 0.8545
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.18% (80.87%) |
27.00% (80.32%) |
27.16% (80.82%) |
30.00% (89.17%) |
41.55% (105.80%) |
27.69% (78.26%) |
25.71% (79.48%) |
57.83% (79.14%) |
| 複勝 | 58.99% (84.77%) |
58.91% (84.54%) |
58.63% (84.99%) |
65.00% (85.17%) |
73.06% (92.05%) |
63.29% (83.54%) |
56.28% (84.53%) |
89.90% (83.59%) |
| 枠連 | 15.70% (81.96%) |
15.12% (83.51%) |
15.76% (79.62%) |
23.23% (97.07%) |
-- (--) |
17.06% (76.95%) |
14.26% (78.43%) |
31.38% (79.43%) |
| 馬連 | 12.42% (82.45%) |
12.43% (81.01%) |
11.97% (83.89%) |
18.33% (82.75%) |
23.74% (71.96%) |
14.59% (77.12%) |
10.67% (85.17%) |
25.70% (73.69%) |
| ワイド | 26.89% (86.77%) |
27.47% (81.26%) |
26.00% (93.56%) |
30.83% (71.33%) |
49.32% (82.51%) |
33.00% (88.84%) |
22.83% (86.47%) |
49.35% (79.75%) |
| 馬単 | 6.69% (77.34%) |
6.57% (77.15%) |
6.68% (77.37%) |
8.33% (79.58%) |
12.79% (85.48%) |
7.79% (80.25%) |
5.77% (75.64%) |
25.70% (70.56%) |
| 三連複 | 6.34% (72.15%) |
7.22% (61.87%) |
5.35% (81.93%) |
7.50% (82.58%) |
19.18% (77.67%) |
9.02% (72.58%) |
4.29% (71.50%) |
16.09% (69.39%) |
| 三連単 | 1.36% (56.62%) |
1.54% (57.65%) |
1.22% (45.05%) |
0.83% (200.75%) |
3.65% (130.96%) |
2.10% (75.60%) |
0.91% (43.58%) |
16.09% (64.38%) |
| 総合 | 60.12% (77.81%) |
60.04% (75.75%) |
59.78% (78.40%) |
65.83% (98.58%) |
77.63% (92.35%) |
63.66% (79.14%) |
57.35% (75.60%) |
90.22% (69.96%) |
[Loop 4] NDCG@1 = 0.7839
[Loop 4] NDCG@3 = 0.7875
[Loop 4] NDCG@5 = 0.8007
[Loop 4] NDCG@10 = 0.8545
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.38% (81.43%) |
26.52% (77.86%) |
27.95% (83.15%) |
31.67% (107.92%) |
39.73% (96.21%) |
29.42% (85.18%) |
25.59% (78.84%) |
57.80% (79.03%) |
| 複勝 | 58.58% (84.48%) |
58.02% (83.37%) |
58.93% (85.67%) |
61.67% (83.67%) |
73.06% (91.37%) |
63.78% (85.38%) |
55.54% (83.56%) |
89.75% (82.63%) |
| 枠連 | 15.61% (79.13%) |
15.83% (86.08%) |
14.93% (72.17%) |
23.23% (91.01%) |
-- (--) |
17.80% (78.36%) |
13.89% (74.37%) |
30.86% (77.59%) |
| 馬連 | 12.33% (77.04%) |
12.61% (76.77%) |
11.60% (76.82%) |
18.33% (83.83%) |
22.37% (57.63%) |
15.20% (82.48%) |
10.47% (76.98%) |
25.30% (70.35%) |
| ワイド | 27.32% (84.29%) |
28.24% (82.00%) |
26.00% (86.24%) |
32.50% (89.83%) |
51.60% (85.89%) |
33.13% (85.30%) |
23.20% (83.81%) |
49.15% (78.63%) |
| 馬単 | 6.83% (72.89%) |
6.57% (70.68%) |
6.99% (76.24%) |
8.33% (58.17%) |
12.33% (53.52%) |
7.54% (73.89%) |
6.10% (74.31%) |
25.30% (68.28%) |
| 三連複 | 6.16% (67.52%) |
7.40% (74.52%) |
4.80% (59.89%) |
7.50% (73.58%) |
18.26% (69.50%) |
8.28% (59.46%) |
4.37% (70.03%) |
16.18% (71.79%) |
| 三連単 | 1.24% (42.60%) |
1.54% (58.31%) |
1.03% (29.59%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
2.74% (27.81%) |
1.85% (36.43%) |
0.91% (46.00%) |
16.18% (66.24%) |
| 総合 | 59.86% (73.60%) |
59.33% (75.99%) |
60.15% (71.22%) |
63.33% (73.11%) |
77.63% (68.85%) |
64.40% (73.31%) |
56.74% (73.49%) |
90.07% (70.36%) |
NumberOfLeaves: 223
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 100
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～400 = 0点, 401～1000は0.89乗に0～1000点
[Loop 2] NDCG@1 = 0.7842
[Loop 2] NDCG@3 = 0.7877
[Loop 2] NDCG@5 = 0.8008
[Loop 2] NDCG@10 = 0.8545
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.18% (79.14%) |
27.06% (80.30%) |
27.16% (77.40%) |
29.17% (86.75%) |
37.90% (93.06%) |
28.55% (80.14%) |
25.75% (77.55%) |
57.60% (77.81%) |
| 複勝 | 58.58% (84.33%) |
58.44% (83.69%) |
58.32% (84.87%) |
64.17% (85.92%) |
71.69% (88.72%) |
64.15% (85.38%) |
55.54% (83.59%) |
89.90% (83.38%) |
| 枠連 | 15.67% (81.35%) |
15.61% (85.52%) |
15.25% (74.91%) |
23.23% (124.34%) |
-- (--) |
17.55% (79.33%) |
14.05% (76.86%) |
31.21% (80.69%) |
| 馬連 | 12.42% (80.76%) |
12.55% (77.32%) |
11.91% (83.13%) |
17.50% (96.67%) |
23.74% (73.70%) |
15.20% (81.27%) |
10.47% (81.23%) |
25.62% (73.06%) |
| ワイド | 27.09% (84.72%) |
28.00% (81.87%) |
25.82% (87.10%) |
31.67% (92.33%) |
50.68% (85.62%) |
33.50% (89.44%) |
22.83% (83.07%) |
49.52% (78.86%) |
| 馬単 | 6.71% (80.57%) |
6.39% (74.82%) |
6.99% (85.74%) |
7.50% (90.75%) |
12.33% (72.60%) |
7.91% (84.19%) |
5.81% (80.09%) |
25.62% (70.80%) |
| 三連複 | 6.05% (61.91%) |
6.87% (55.34%) |
5.10% (67.80%) |
7.50% (73.58%) |
20.09% (85.89%) |
8.16% (75.09%) |
4.08% (55.35%) |
16.35% (74.63%) |
| 三連単 | 1.30% (55.52%) |
1.42% (55.49%) |
1.28% (59.59%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.20% (72.19%) |
2.10% (73.46%) |
0.87% (48.03%) |
16.35% (69.51%) |
| 総合 | 59.71% (75.97%) |
59.68% (74.06%) |
59.36% (77.58%) |
65.00% (80.33%) |
76.71% (81.68%) |
64.52% (81.04%) |
56.57% (73.22%) |
90.22% (72.84%) |
NDCGの割に期待外れな検証結果。ここまでくるとダメかなぁっと思えるけど、
NumberOfLeaves: 223
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 100
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～400 = 0点, 401～1000は0.90乗に0～1000点
切り良く0.9乗までは試しておかなきゃとは思うので。
[Loop 3] NDCG@1 = 0.7837
[Loop 3] NDCG@3 = 0.7872
[Loop 3] NDCG@5 = 0.8007
[Loop 3] NDCG@10 = 0.8545
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 26.86% (78.62%) |
26.41% (77.75%) |
27.10% (78.24%) |
30.00% (95.92%) |
39.73% (97.90%) |
28.92% (85.28%) |
25.01% (74.66%) |
57.63% (78.64%) |
| 複勝 | 58.78% (84.84%) |
58.38% (84.13%) |
58.81% (85.35%) |
64.17% (87.92%) |
70.78% (87.21%) |
64.28% (86.61%) |
55.87% (84.04%) |
89.58% (82.99%) |
| 枠連 | 15.93% (85.00%) |
16.18% (93.66%) |
15.12% (75.75%) |
25.25% (108.69%) |
-- (--) |
17.06% (76.74%) |
14.54% (82.36%) |
31.64% (80.04%) |
| 馬連 | 12.53% (83.55%) |
12.97% (85.90%) |
11.54% (80.39%) |
20.00% (94.00%) |
25.11% (76.07%) |
14.59% (77.27%) |
10.71% (86.32%) |
25.99% (74.16%) |
| ワイド | 27.38% (88.16%) |
28.60% (86.34%) |
25.70% (90.50%) |
33.33% (81.67%) |
51.14% (84.20%) |
33.13% (86.76%) |
23.32% (88.98%) |
48.86% (78.19%) |
| 馬単 | 6.60% (75.37%) |
6.69% (76.14%) |
6.26% (72.69%) |
10.00% (101.25%) |
14.61% (88.77%) |
7.42% (76.30%) |
5.60% (73.85%) |
25.99% (71.60%) |
| 三連複 | 6.34% (70.85%) |
7.16% (65.12%) |
5.59% (79.65%) |
5.00% (30.83%) |
17.81% (71.37%) |
8.65% (69.15%) |
4.53% (71.38%) |
16.85% (76.86%) |
| 三連単 | 1.13% (38.41%) |
1.18% (35.81%) |
1.09% (43.07%) |
0.83% (11.00%) |
4.11% (132.10%) |
1.73% (38.37%) |
0.66% (29.97%) |
16.85% (69.90%) |
| 総合 | 60.20% (75.47%) |
59.86% (75.23%) |
60.21% (75.70%) |
65.00% (75.69%) |
76.26% (91.09%) |
64.65% (74.56%) |
57.27% (73.94%) |
89.87% (73.33%) |
さて、次のでピークが分かるかな?
NumberOfLeaves: 223
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 100
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～400 = 0点, 401～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点
乗数1未満の適正値がどこかね。
[Loop 7] NDCG@1 = 0.7836
[Loop 7] NDCG@3 = 0.7872
[Loop 7] NDCG@5 = 0.8006
[Loop 7] NDCG@10 = 0.8543
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.61% (81.50%) |
27.12% (80.25%) |
27.70% (80.34%) |
33.33% (115.08%) |
38.81% (92.56%) |
29.30% (86.27%) |
26.04% (78.92%) |
57.51% (78.97%) |
| 複勝 | 58.55% (84.16%) |
57.73% (82.39%) |
58.87% (85.57%) |
65.83% (89.75%) |
72.60% (91.37%) |
63.78% (84.77%) |
55.54% (83.30%) |
90.07% (82.97%) |
| 枠連 | 16.09% (83.13%) |
16.11% (86.69%) |
15.44% (77.81%) |
26.26% (116.87%) |
-- (--) |
17.68% (77.63%) |
14.54% (79.69%) |
31.38% (79.93%) |
| 馬連 | 12.50% (77.59%) |
12.55% (75.54%) |
11.91% (77.82%) |
20.00% (103.17%) |
22.37% (58.68%) |
14.71% (75.08%) |
10.88% (80.13%) |
25.56% (73.64%) |
| ワイド | 27.41% (84.94%) |
28.00% (82.28%) |
26.31% (87.32%) |
34.17% (89.75%) |
50.68% (83.11%) |
33.25% (87.68%) |
23.36% (84.19%) |
49.12% (76.70%) |
| 馬単 | 6.77% (70.36%) |
6.45% (66.00%) |
6.93% (71.96%) |
9.17% (110.00%) |
11.87% (52.97%) |
7.66% (76.33%) |
6.02% (69.95%) |
25.56% (71.15%) |
| 三連複 | 5.88% (59.71%) |
6.69% (51.97%) |
4.98% (68.09%) |
6.67% (53.83%) |
17.81% (74.93%) |
8.65% (74.22%) |
3.87% (53.51%) |
16.32% (65.00%) |
| 三連単 | 1.22% (36.03%) |
1.66% (51.89%) |
0.85% (22.38%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.65% (39.68%) |
1.85% (36.45%) |
0.78% (35.55%) |
16.32% (59.98%) |
| 総合 | 59.88% (72.03%) |
59.21% (71.82%) |
60.15% (71.37%) |
65.83% (84.09%) |
76.71% (70.47%) |
64.28% (74.80%) |
56.90% (70.65%) |
90.36% (67.28%) |
NumberOfLeaves: 223
NumberOfIterations: 3000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 127
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 100
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～400 = 0点, 401～1000は0.93乗に0～1000点
[Loop 3] NDCG@1 = 0.7837
[Loop 3] NDCG@3 = 0.7877
[Loop 3] NDCG@5 = 0.8008
[Loop 3] NDCG@10 = 0.8543
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.32% (79.94%) |
26.41% (78.00%) |
27.89% (79.74%) |
32.50% (109.92%) |
40.18% (95.48%) |
28.55% (83.86%) |
25.75% (77.23%) |
57.63% (78.09%) |
| 複勝 | 58.61% (83.92%) |
57.73% (82.29%) |
59.17% (85.36%) |
63.33% (87.00%) |
71.69% (90.18%) |
64.03% (85.35%) |
55.62% (82.87%) |
89.55% (83.05%) |
| 枠連 | 15.51% (80.30%) |
15.40% (85.90%) |
15.12% (74.66%) |
23.23% (90.51%) |
-- (--) |
16.69% (68.34%) |
14.13% (79.20%) |
31.34% (78.82%) |
| 馬連 | 12.33% (77.58%) |
12.37% (76.23%) |
11.91% (79.36%) |
17.50% (72.25%) |
23.74% (64.06%) |
13.84% (66.54%) |
10.80% (82.48%) |
25.76% (74.01%) |
| ワイド | 26.77% (85.33%) |
27.71% (81.14%) |
25.46% (89.54%) |
31.67% (86.42%) |
50.68% (84.61%) |
31.52% (82.46%) |
23.03% (86.35%) |
49.87% (79.09%) |
| 馬単 | 6.66% (75.05%) |
6.51% (72.80%) |
6.74% (79.25%) |
7.50% (49.17%) |
13.24% (67.53%) |
6.80% (65.35%) |
6.02% (78.96%) |
25.76% (71.38%) |
| 三連複 | 6.08% (73.29%) |
6.93% (59.95%) |
5.22% (87.82%) |
5.83% (61.67%) |
17.81% (74.34%) |
8.03% (67.55%) |
4.37% (75.11%) |
16.56% (70.34%) |
| 三連単 | 1.19% (38.07%) |
1.48% (43.85%) |
0.97% (34.91%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
2.74% (29.50%) |
1.73% (34.88%) |
0.87% (39.91%) |
16.56% (64.51%) |
| 総合 | 59.77% (74.10%) |
58.97% (72.24%) |
60.21% (76.34%) |
65.00% (69.15%) |
76.71% (72.24%) |
64.52% (69.29%) |
56.65% (75.26%) |
89.90% (70.05%) |
[Loop 8] NDCG@1 = 0.7838
[Loop 8] NDCG@3 = 0.7871
[Loop 8] NDCG@5 = 0.8006
[Loop 8] NDCG@10 = 0.8545
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.67% (84.14%) |
27.29% (82.21%) |
27.76% (84.42%) |
31.67% (107.33%) |
42.01% (107.12%) |
29.91% (89.94%) |
25.63% (80.13%) |
57.51% (77.69%) |
| 複勝 | 59.10% (85.45%) |
58.67% (84.46%) |
58.99% (85.98%) |
66.67% (92.08%) |
74.89% (95.62%) |
65.02% (87.55%) |
55.71% (83.84%) |
89.35% (83.04%) |
| 枠連 | 15.93% (85.63%) |
16.32% (95.73%) |
15.06% (73.53%) |
24.24% (134.44%) |
-- (--) |
17.68% (81.21%) |
14.34% (81.67%) |
31.80% (81.34%) |
| 馬連 | 12.47% (81.52%) |
12.85% (86.66%) |
11.60% (73.92%) |
19.17% (113.42%) |
23.29% (64.47%) |
14.59% (76.96%) |
10.80% (84.58%) |
26.05% (75.52%) |
| ワイド | 27.21% (86.86%) |
28.24% (85.06%) |
25.70% (88.57%) |
33.33% (88.83%) |
50.68% (84.20%) |
32.51% (86.67%) |
23.32% (87.16%) |
49.52% (79.15%) |
| 馬単 | 6.60% (74.90%) |
6.51% (74.88%) |
6.50% (70.77%) |
9.17% (131.83%) |
12.79% (56.16%) |
7.66% (80.19%) |
5.69% (74.83%) |
26.05% (73.10%) |
| 三連複 | 6.11% (67.52%) |
7.28% (69.59%) |
4.86% (66.39%) |
6.67% (53.83%) |
18.72% (76.16%) |
8.28% (69.74%) |
4.24% (66.00%) |
16.79% (71.06%) |
| 三連単 | 1.16% (43.43%) |
1.48% (61.82%) |
0.91% (27.73%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.65% (40.78%) |
1.24% (23.29%) |
0.91% (50.38%) |
16.79% (66.26%) |
| 総合 | 60.23% (76.05%) |
59.92% (79.72%) |
60.02% (71.40%) |
67.50% (89.23%) |
78.54% (74.93%) |
65.64% (74.44%) |
56.78% (76.07%) |
89.67% (71.40%) |
やれやれ、回収率って突発的な穴を当ててのものもあるのであまりに気しないでいます。それよりもやはり的中率をまず上げたい。特に、全体の足を引っ張っているのが13頭以上のレースなんだけど、これってJRA開催レースの7割とかで、ここで的中率が上がらないと実用的には辛いと思ってます。いや、1点で単勝が4Rに1回、複勝は半分以上、ただ、ワイドがまだ4Rに1回に届いてない状態。
努力が足りないかなぁ^^;
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