ランキング学習になってNDCGって使ってますが、これ、Normalized Discounted Cumulative Gainなんだけど、@1は1着、@3は3着までって感じで@5は掲示板にのるって意味合いなんだと思ってます。で、まあ、基本@1が高い方が良いとは思うけど、自分の元々の馬券スタイルはワイドから三連系なんです。つまり、@3重視でモデルを見た方が良いのではって事です。
そうすると、ボーダー500で40回の中でNDCG@1=0.7825 NDCG@3=0.7862は
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.90% (80.26%) |
27.00% (77.49%) |
28.55% (81.56%) |
31.67% (101.50%) |
36.99% (86.21%) |
29.42% (80.48%) |
26.58% (79.65%) |
57.48% (76.72%) |
| 複勝 | 58.84% (83.64%) |
58.38% (82.31%) |
58.99% (84.88%) |
63.33% (85.25%) |
70.32% (85.84%) |
64.52% (84.44%) |
55.91% (83.17%) |
89.35% (82.44%) |
| 枠連 | 16.42% (87.05%) |
16.61% (94.06%) |
15.88% (80.17%) |
22.22% (96.67%) |
-- (--) |
17.43% (77.12%) |
15.04% (84.83%) |
30.89% (76.52%) |
| 馬連 | 12.68% (80.10%) |
13.14% (86.17%) |
11.91% (73.83%) |
16.67% (80.58%) |
24.20% (66.35%) |
14.59% (80.52%) |
11.00% (81.19%) |
25.62% (71.86%) |
| ワイド | 27.24% (84.62%) |
28.30% (84.93%) |
25.88% (84.54%) |
30.83% (81.42%) |
51.14% (84.93%) |
32.88% (86.59%) |
23.20% (83.93%) |
49.23% (77.70%) |
| 馬単 | 6.98% (76.89%) |
6.69% (79.89%) |
7.11% (72.84%) |
9.17% (90.25%) |
11.87% (58.86%) |
7.79% (82.01%) |
6.26% (76.81%) |
25.62% (69.75%) |
| 三連複 | 6.16% (63.63%) |
6.99% (57.60%) |
5.29% (68.98%) |
6.67% (75.25%) |
19.63% (82.88%) |
8.03% (67.39%) |
4.33% (60.64%) |
16.79% (81.17%) |
| 三連単 | 1.36% (48.43%) |
1.54% (46.07%) |
1.22% (39.75%) |
0.83% (200.75%) |
4.11% (55.43%) |
1.98% (69.12%) |
0.91% (40.91%) |
16.79% (77.90%) |
| 総合 | 60.12% (75.42%) |
59.74% (75.68%) |
60.21% (73.28%) |
64.17% (101.57%) |
74.89% (74.36%) |
65.27% (78.46%) |
57.07% (73.89%) |
89.70% (76.91%) |
@3とは言っても、単勝もまあまあかな。ボーダー0で40回の中で2つあり、NDCG@1=0.7826 NDCG@3=0.7880は
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.03% (79.78%) |
26.70% (79.33%) |
27.10% (78.99%) |
30.83% (96.92%) |
38.81% (95.34%) |
28.80% (83.10%) |
25.38% (77.27%) |
56.50% (76.62%) |
| 複勝 | 58.58% (84.35%) |
59.15% (85.14%) |
57.47% (83.16%) |
65.83% (89.58%) |
71.23% (89.77%) |
64.15% (86.34%) |
55.58% (83.20%) |
89.49% (82.97%) |
| 枠連 | 15.48% (84.64%) |
15.83% (94.14%) |
14.55% (74.78%) |
25.25% (106.36%) |
-- (--) |
16.69% (74.12%) |
14.09% (82.78%) |
30.24% (76.03%) |
| 馬連 | 12.10% (79.59%) |
12.61% (85.14%) |
11.00% (72.72%) |
20.00% (95.75%) |
24.66% (74.16%) |
14.09% (74.39%) |
10.30% (81.82%) |
24.95% (69.52%) |
| ワイド | 26.98% (87.81%) |
28.00% (83.88%) |
25.46% (92.22%) |
33.33% (82.42%) |
51.14% (85.25%) |
32.14% (83.23%) |
23.07% (89.56%) |
48.74% (77.92%) |
| 馬単 | 6.31% (67.88%) |
6.51% (73.90%) |
5.77% (61.01%) |
10.83% (77.50%) |
14.16% (82.79%) |
7.05% (60.22%) |
5.36% (69.09%) |
24.95% (66.69%) |
| 三連複 | 5.90% (62.33%) |
6.81% (57.98%) |
4.86% (65.59%) |
7.50% (79.00%) |
18.26% (88.08%) |
8.16% (65.76%) |
4.04% (58.87%) |
15.89% (69.00%) |
| 三連単 | 1.27% (58.29%) |
1.60% (63.65%) |
0.97% (52.96%) |
0.83% (56.08%) |
5.02% (145.07%) |
1.48% (33.54%) |
0.87% (58.71%) |
15.89% (62.81%) |
| 総合 | 59.80% (75.46%) |
60.45% (77.55%) |
58.63% (72.67%) |
66.67% (84.98%) |
75.80% (94.35%) |
64.65% (70.09%) |
56.74% (75.16%) |
89.73% (67.93%) |
これは微妙に良くないか^^; もう1つは直前に上げたNDCG@1=0.7840 NDCG@3=0.7880で同じく微妙に良くない。
って事で、まずはボーダー500から攻めてみるかな。
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