2026/07/05

乗数の微調整

二乗からどうするか? 実は2.5乗は試したけど、あまり良い感じではなかったです。で、今回試したのは1.8乗でNDCG@1=0.7796 NDCG@3=0.7833で

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9~12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 28.36%
(82.42%)
27.95%
(84.28%)
28.49%
(79.53%)
32.50%
(95.92%)
37.90%
(85.84%)
29.67%
(85.09%)
27.07%
(81.22%)
58.18%
(77.92%)
複勝 59.39%
(84.75%)
59.33%
(84.77%)
58.87%
(84.37%)
67.50%
(89.50%)
71.23%
(88.13%)
65.27%
(86.35%)
56.37%
(83.91%)
89.81%
(82.64%)
枠連 16.26%
(83.16%)
16.68%
(90.13%)
15.25%
(74.79%)
26.26%
(116.97%)
--
(--)
19.16%
(83.82%)
14.26%
(77.66%)
30.86%
(75.73%)
馬連 12.76%
(80.97%)
13.03%
(79.01%)
11.91%
(80.29%)
20.83%
(117.83%)
22.83%
(61.96%)
16.19%
(87.18%)
10.71%
(80.61%)
25.67%
(72.02%)
ワイド 27.09%
(83.62%)
27.95%
(80.17%)
25.76%
(86.91%)
33.33%
(87.00%)
50.23%
(83.97%)
32.63%
(80.56%)
23.16%
(84.61%)
48.97%
(78.26%)
馬単 6.89%
(76.29%)
6.39%
(65.90%)
7.11%
(82.86%)
10.83%
(132.25%)
12.79%
(60.18%)
7.54%
(75.20%)
6.14%
(78.10%)
25.67%
(69.64%)
三連複 6.37%
(62.34%)
7.10%
(58.73%)
5.53%
(64.13%)
7.50%
(88.58%)
19.18%
(71.51%)
8.28%
(59.67%)
4.57%
(62.40%)
16.70%
(78.23%)
三連単 1.53%
(54.67%)
1.66%
(46.32%)
1.46%
(63.13%)
0.83%
(56.08%)
3.65%
(41.37%)
2.22%
(45.36%)
1.11%
(58.97%)
16.70%
(70.99%)
総合 60.78%
(75.93%)
61.16%
(73.32%)
59.90%
(77.01%)
67.50%
(97.59%)
76.26%
(70.42%)
66.13%
(75.40%)
57.60%
(75.93%)
90.04%
(73.33%)

ちょっと時間節約で20回しかやってないけど、ダメか^^; 20回やるのに3時間20分程度です。次点としてはNDCG@1=0.7802 NDCG@3=0.7832で

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9~12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 27.84%
(79.19%)
27.35%
(79.55%)
27.95%
(77.54%)
33.33%
(96.67%)
39.27%
(90.05%)
28.55%
(75.36%)
26.58%
(79.48%)
58.18%
(77.50%)
複勝 58.90%
(83.73%)
58.85%
(83.93%)
58.44%
(83.31%)
65.83%
(86.67%)
72.60%
(91.28%)
64.15%
(83.51%)
55.91%
(83.12%)
89.35%
(82.76%)
枠連 15.93%
(83.25%)
15.68%
(90.38%)
15.76%
(75.91%)
22.22%
(98.48%)
--
(--)
17.18%
(77.24%)
14.50%
(79.97%)
31.70%
(78.88%)
馬連 12.71%
(82.58%)
12.73%
(83.62%)
12.15%
(79.44%)
20.00%
(110.83%)
24.20%
(68.04%)
14.59%
(78.50%)
11.04%
(85.25%)
26.37%
(76.91%)
ワイド 27.29%
(85.46%)
28.30%
(84.67%)
25.88%
(85.95%)
32.50%
(89.75%)
50.68%
(84.16%)
31.52%
(81.25%)
23.77%
(86.98%)
49.32%
(80.55%)
馬単 6.74%
(73.34%)
6.16%
(65.83%)
7.05%
(77.28%)
10.83%
(124.83%)
11.87%
(53.20%)
6.43%
(58.47%)
6.39%
(80.11%)
26.37%
(74.48%)
三連複 6.48%
(67.50%)
7.34%
(66.22%)
5.47%
(67.76%)
8.33%
(82.00%)
17.81%
(60.96%)
8.78%
(71.97%)
4.70%
(66.60%)
17.02%
(77.05%)
三連単 1.33%
(49.85%)
1.60%
(57.76%)
1.15%
(45.37%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
3.65%
(40.18%)
1.61%
(41.29%)
1.03%
(53.58%)
17.02%
(71.54%)
総合 59.94%
(75.51%)
59.98%
(76.20%)
59.48%
(74.06%)
65.83%
(85.88%)
75.80%
(69.69%)
64.89%
(70.95%)
56.86%
(76.89%)
89.61%
(74.69%)

これは全然ダメだ(笑)

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