ここまでパラメーターを色々と変えて試すもこれといったものが得られない。先日ゲリラ雷雨で中断してたパターンを昨晩50回やったけど、結局あの2回目超えるものは出なかった。これ、単に運が悪いだけかもですが、まあ、そんなものです。次の一手は乗数をチョイ上げてみた。40回でスタート。
NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.82乗に0～1000点
1回目でNDCG@1=0.7800 NDCG@3=0.7831
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.61% (77.87%) |
26.70% (77.25%) |
28.19% (77.19%) |
32.50% (95.92%) |
37.90% (84.16%) |
28.55% (76.66%) |
26.37% (77.70%) |
58.52% (78.53%) |
| 複勝 | 58.70% (83.49%) |
58.14% (82.92%) |
58.75% (83.51%) |
65.83% (91.33%) |
70.32% (84.93%) |
63.41% (83.44%) |
56.08% (83.38%) |
89.49% (83.08%) |
| 枠連 | 17.07% (90.52%) |
17.03% (95.58%) |
16.84% (86.45%) |
21.21% (83.03%) |
-- (--) |
18.67% (85.65%) |
15.45% (86.39%) |
31.89% (78.75%) |
| 馬連 | 13.37% (86.98%) |
13.56% (83.95%) |
13.00% (91.73%) |
15.83% (64.50%) |
24.66% (65.84%) |
15.82% (87.47%) |
11.54% (88.73%) |
26.40% (75.04%) |
| ワイド | 28.05% (87.35%) |
28.83% (84.34%) |
27.10% (90.83%) |
30.00% (81.92%) |
51.60% (83.93%) |
33.00% (85.12%) |
24.27% (88.40%) |
49.84% (80.63%) |
| 馬単 | 7.44% (84.03%) |
7.16% (76.49%) |
7.59% (93.62%) |
9.17% (58.58%) |
13.70% (63.74%) |
8.28% (86.24%) |
6.59% (85.12%) |
26.40% (72.51%) |
| 三連複 | 6.28% (72.49%) |
6.81% (49.44%) |
5.65% (96.16%) |
7.50% (72.08%) |
19.18% (69.41%) |
8.78% (70.06%) |
4.29% (73.57%) |
17.02% (76.78%) |
| 三連単 | 1.24% (44.93%) |
1.36% (47.99%) |
1.22% (45.07%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.65% (33.52%) |
1.98% (60.41%) |
0.78% (40.80%) |
17.02% (68.59%) |
| 総合 | 60.09% (78.29%) |
59.56% (74.30%) |
60.15% (83.05%) |
66.67% (68.09%) |
73.97% (69.36%) |
64.03% (79.38%) |
57.52% (78.01%) |
89.84% (72.92%) |
なんか出だしだけで決まるのかも?って思えたりもしますが、まあ、期待して明日の朝まで放置かな^^
3回目でNDCG@1=0.7809 NDCG@3=0.7835
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.70% (79.81%) |
27.06% (82.02%) |
27.95% (75.58%) |
33.33% (106.92%) |
36.53% (78.81%) |
28.18% (82.11%) |
26.74% (79.14%) |
58.15% (77.84%) |
| 複勝 | 59.36% (85.24%) |
58.50% (83.82%) |
59.78% (86.31%) |
65.83% (90.50%) |
70.78% (85.07%) |
63.78% (85.48%) |
56.86% (85.18%) |
89.35% (82.51%) |
| 枠連 | 16.90% (87.83%) |
16.75% (92.75%) |
16.58% (82.13%) |
24.24% (108.59%) |
-- (--) |
18.05% (78.49%) |
15.45% (85.37%) |
31.73% (77.31%) |
| 馬連 | 13.05% (85.02%) |
13.20% (85.69%) |
12.64% (84.36%) |
16.67% (84.75%) |
23.29% (62.19%) |
15.20% (83.19%) |
11.41% (87.70%) |
25.99% (73.68%) |
| ワイド | 27.73% (86.09%) |
28.42% (85.33%) |
26.79% (87.26%) |
30.83% (80.75%) |
49.77% (82.74%) |
32.39% (86.03%) |
24.19% (86.42%) |
49.55% (80.05%) |
| 馬単 | 6.63% (74.16%) |
6.51% (77.17%) |
6.44% (68.72%) |
10.83% (106.33%) |
10.96% (46.62%) |
7.05% (72.48%) |
6.10% (77.20%) |
25.99% (70.85%) |
| 三連複 | 6.40% (72.63%) |
7.40% (61.82%) |
5.29% (82.28%) |
7.50% (92.42%) |
18.26% (60.87%) |
8.78% (69.44%) |
4.53% (74.75%) |
16.85% (73.81%) |
| 三連単 | 1.42% (61.01%) |
1.72% (77.84%) |
1.09% (29.47%) |
1.67% (256.83%) |
3.20% (33.74%) |
1.85% (82.94%) |
1.11% (56.16%) |
16.85% (69.20%) |
| 総合 | 60.69% (78.85%) |
59.92% (80.55%) |
61.00% (74.47%) |
67.50% (116.05%) |
74.89% (64.29%) |
64.40% (80.02%) |
58.18% (78.99%) |
89.64% (72.51%) |
さてと、これ以上を期待して寝ます。
追記 2026.7.29 20:30
昨夜はあの後もあまり良い感じなのは出ずに17回目のNDCG@1=0.7800 NDCG@3=0.7837
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 28.42% (84.23%) |
27.95% (85.71%) |
28.61% (81.18%) |
32.50% (105.33%) |
37.90% (85.39%) |
30.04% (86.38%) |
27.03% (83.42%) |
58.21% (77.71%) |
| 複勝 | 59.25% (84.98%) |
58.85% (84.59%) |
59.30% (85.01%) |
64.17% (90.00%) |
71.23% (88.26%) |
64.89% (86.67%) |
56.28% (84.12%) |
89.55% (82.48%) |
| 枠連 | 16.22% (83.36%) |
16.39% (90.37%) |
15.69% (76.08%) |
22.22% (99.49%) |
-- (--) |
18.05% (77.43%) |
14.59% (80.05%) |
31.80% (79.06%) |
| 馬連 | 12.74% (84.02%) |
13.14% (86.04%) |
12.03% (82.17%) |
16.67% (80.92%) |
25.57% (70.23%) |
15.33% (79.52%) |
10.71% (86.77%) |
25.85% (73.39%) |
| ワイド | 27.29% (87.90%) |
28.66% (90.59%) |
25.76% (86.09%) |
29.17% (74.75%) |
53.88% (89.91%) |
32.01% (81.90%) |
23.32% (89.71%) |
49.32% (79.48%) |
| 馬単 | 6.69% (74.35%) |
6.81% (76.64%) |
6.44% (71.42%) |
8.33% (82.33%) |
13.70% (72.56%) |
7.66% (79.44%) |
5.73% (72.82%) |
25.85% (70.72%) |
| 三連複 | 6.16% (72.58%) |
7.46% (65.86%) |
4.80% (80.95%) |
6.67% (52.33%) |
18.72% (62.05%) |
8.41% (62.79%) |
4.29% (76.79%) |
16.56% (72.27%) |
| 三連単 | 1.30% (56.54%) |
1.66% (44.55%) |
1.03% (72.96%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
4.11% (45.62%) |
1.98% (48.38%) |
0.82% (60.24%) |
16.56% (67.09%) |
| 総合 | 60.49% (78.43%) |
60.27% (77.78%) |
60.33% (79.50%) |
65.83% (72.56%) |
74.89% (73.43%) |
65.51% (75.32%) |
57.52% (79.24%) |
89.84% (71.35%) |
26回目のNDCG@1=0.7794 NDCG@3=0.7837
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 28.13% (81.92%) |
27.24% (80.66%) |
28.49% (81.67%) |
35.83% (103.08%) |
37.90% (83.29%) |
30.53% (87.37%) |
26.45% (79.98%) |
58.70% (78.66%) |
| 複勝 | 59.10% (84.52%) |
58.50% (83.29%) |
59.11% (85.27%) |
67.50% (91.75%) |
70.78% (86.16%) |
64.77% (86.06%) |
56.16% (83.86%) |
89.41% (82.48%) |
| 枠連 | 16.22% (85.88%) |
16.04% (90.72%) |
16.14% (81.18%) |
20.20% (91.62%) |
-- (--) |
17.43% (81.43%) |
14.79% (81.91%) |
31.77% (79.50%) |
| 馬連 | 12.68% (81.37%) |
12.91% (80.33%) |
12.21% (83.33%) |
15.83% (69.25%) |
25.11% (66.35%) |
14.83% (83.54%) |
10.84% (82.01%) |
25.82% (73.76%) |
| ワイド | 27.12% (86.03%) |
28.36% (83.06%) |
25.64% (89.76%) |
30.00% (76.50%) |
50.68% (82.01%) |
32.39% (83.36%) |
23.24% (87.28%) |
49.49% (78.55%) |
| 馬単 | 6.71% (75.44%) |
6.69% (75.49%) |
6.50% (74.00%) |
10.00% (94.42%) |
12.33% (53.56%) |
8.16% (89.83%) |
5.73% (72.62%) |
25.82% (71.19%) |
| 三連複 | 5.99% (65.93%) |
6.99% (58.69%) |
4.92% (73.88%) |
6.67% (58.67%) |
16.89% (63.88%) |
8.53% (72.21%) |
4.16% (64.02%) |
17.13% (78.95%) |
| 三連単 | 1.13% (51.55%) |
1.36% (60.14%) |
0.91% (31.85%) |
0.83% (200.75%) |
2.28% (21.00%) |
1.85% (108.18%) |
0.78% (35.42%) |
17.13% (71.77%) |
| 総合 | 60.26% (76.45%) |
59.62% (76.25%) |
60.39% (75.08%) |
67.50% (98.40%) |
74.43% (65.18%) |
65.27% (86.50%) |
57.31% (73.39%) |
89.81% (74.32%) |
あともう一息なのはどれも変わらない。
追記 2026.7.29 21:26
チョイ上げの後はチョイ下げ。出勤前に40回スタート。
NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.78乗に0～1000点
こちらは微妙で29回目にNDCG@1=0.7803 NDCG@3=0.7834
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 28.22% (82.02%) |
27.77% (85.56%) |
28.13% (76.07%) |
35.83% (113.83%) |
40.18% (93.93%) |
29.67% (87.06%) |
26.66% (79.27%) |
58.47% (79.10%) |
| 複勝 | 59.04% (84.27%) |
58.56% (84.21%) |
59.11% (84.09%) |
65.00% (87.67%) |
70.78% (87.17%) |
64.15% (86.22%) |
56.28% (83.37%) |
89.58% (81.93%) |
| 枠連 | 16.39% (83.82%) |
16.54% (91.75%) |
16.01% (76.63%) |
20.20% (85.15%) |
-- (--) |
17.31% (72.37%) |
15.04% (82.32%) |
31.38% (79.17%) |
| 馬連 | 12.94% (82.53%) |
13.20% (79.72%) |
12.45% (86.63%) |
15.83% (65.67%) |
25.11% (64.98%) |
14.96% (76.21%) |
11.17% (86.22%) |
25.79% (74.28%) |
| ワイド | 27.47% (84.71%) |
28.48% (82.56%) |
26.37% (87.47%) |
28.33% (77.25%) |
50.23% (81.51%) |
31.27% (79.32%) |
24.15% (86.80%) |
49.09% (76.46%) |
| 馬単 | 6.89% (73.81%) |
6.45% (69.93%) |
7.11% (78.18%) |
10.00% (68.42%) |
11.87% (50.55%) |
7.79% (73.92%) |
6.14% (75.87%) |
25.79% (72.00%) |
| 三連複 | 6.19% (66.40%) |
7.28% (58.05%) |
4.92% (72.61%) |
8.33% (98.75%) |
19.63% (83.20%) |
8.65% (72.78%) |
4.16% (62.75%) |
16.73% (75.73%) |
| 三連単 | 1.45% (43.64%) |
1.60% (47.60%) |
1.40% (42.75%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.65% (38.22%) |
2.47% (56.80%) |
0.91% (39.74%) |
16.73% (67.97%) |
| 総合 | 60.26% (75.03%) |
59.86% (74.57%) |
60.33% (75.55%) |
65.00% (74.36%) |
73.97% (71.36%) |
64.65% (75.58%) |
57.56% (74.54%) |
89.87% (72.15%) |
37回目にNDCG@1=0.7798 NDCG@3=0.7835
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.96% (80.64%) |
27.12% (80.92%) |
28.49% (79.31%) |
32.50% (95.00%) |
37.44% (87.49%) |
29.79% (86.07%) |
26.49% (78.22%) |
58.78% (79.55%) |
| 複勝 | 58.99% (83.74%) |
58.26% (82.76%) |
59.42% (84.75%) |
63.33% (83.58%) |
69.41% (84.57%) |
65.14% (86.30%) |
56.00% (82.81%) |
89.87% (83.21%) |
| 枠連 | 16.74% (88.22%) |
16.96% (93.02%) |
16.45% (84.49%) |
18.18% (79.39%) |
-- (--) |
18.17% (78.75%) |
15.20% (85.78%) |
31.51% (79.04%) |
| 馬連 | 13.05% (84.78%) |
13.38% (82.56%) |
12.70% (88.94%) |
13.33% (59.00%) |
25.11% (65.48%) |
15.33% (81.72%) |
11.21% (87.54%) |
26.22% (77.13%) |
| ワイド | 27.44% (83.27%) |
28.12% (79.76%) |
26.73% (88.01%) |
27.50% (67.75%) |
50.23% (80.41%) |
32.76% (82.82%) |
23.61% (83.68%) |
49.58% (81.11%) |
| 馬単 | 7.06% (78.07%) |
6.75% (74.90%) |
7.23% (80.20%) |
9.17% (93.42%) |
13.24% (60.50%) |
7.79% (71.12%) |
6.26% (81.97%) |
26.22% (74.52%) |
| 三連複 | 6.54% (83.16%) |
7.22% (72.06%) |
5.71% (93.61%) |
8.33% (96.00%) |
18.26% (65.43%) |
8.53% (76.67%) |
4.82% (86.92%) |
17.05% (76.64%) |
| 三連単 | 1.30% (83.45%) |
1.48% (116.44%) |
1.15% (41.04%) |
0.83% (200.75%) |
3.65% (36.99%) |
1.98% (91.27%) |
0.87% (85.04%) |
17.05% (71.50%) |
| 総合 | 60.41% (83.10%) |
59.80% (85.14%) |
60.69% (80.02%) |
65.00% (97.25%) |
73.06% (68.70%) |
66.01% (81.84%) |
57.40% (83.99%) |
90.13% (74.85%) |
38回目はNDCG@1=0.7785 NDCG@3=0.7838
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 28.08% (83.19%) |
27.53% (82.80%) |
28.19% (81.62%) |
34.17% (110.08%) |
36.07% (79.68%) |
30.16% (88.13%) |
26.66% (81.85%) |
58.38% (78.53%) |
| 複勝 | 59.04% (85.05%) |
58.44% (84.07%) |
59.36% (85.96%) |
63.33% (86.50%) |
69.86% (87.21%) |
63.78% (84.82%) |
56.49% (84.94%) |
89.38% (82.68%) |
| 枠連 | 16.90% (89.73%) |
16.75% (95.18%) |
16.71% (84.05%) |
22.22% (102.42%) |
-- (--) |
18.42% (82.36%) |
15.33% (86.49%) |
32.25% (82.46%) |
| 馬連 | 13.17% (88.36%) |
13.56% (92.26%) |
12.52% (85.18%) |
16.67% (77.08%) |
24.20% (74.20%) |
15.45% (84.81%) |
11.41% (90.82%) |
26.37% (78.32%) |
| ワイド | 27.18% (84.79%) |
28.12% (82.97%) |
26.00% (87.24%) |
30.00% (76.83%) |
50.23% (83.93%) |
32.26% (82.82%) |
23.40% (85.53%) |
49.44% (79.90%) |
| 馬単 | 7.06% (78.87%) |
6.81% (76.47%) |
7.11% (80.05%) |
10.00% (96.33%) |
12.33% (63.15%) |
7.79% (76.61%) |
6.35% (81.04%) |
26.37% (75.48%) |
| 三連複 | 6.37% (75.54%) |
6.99% (59.19%) |
5.59% (91.39%) |
8.33% (88.25%) |
16.44% (54.93%) |
8.90% (70.44%) |
4.61% (79.09%) |
16.53% (74.55%) |
| 三連単 | 1.39% (49.42%) |
1.54% (44.23%) |
1.28% (43.71%) |
0.83% (200.75%) |
3.65% (48.90%) |
1.98% (68.11%) |
0.99% (43.23%) |
16.53% (70.89%) |
| 総合 | 60.32% (79.23%) |
59.68% (76.77%) |
60.75% (79.88%) |
63.33% (104.83%) |
73.52% (70.29%) |
64.52% (79.76%) |
57.73% (79.12%) |
89.70% (74.57%) |
次はどれを試すべきか...
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