2026/07/04

二乗のボーダー500

40回スタートしてまず出たのはNDCG@1=0.7768 NDCG@3=0.7826でリニアより落ちるのはリニアから変更可能にして試した時に経験してたので想定内ですが

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9~12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 27.70%
(78.72%)
26.82%
(78.90%)
28.37%
(77.62%)
30.83%
(91.17%)
36.07%
(78.13%)
28.31%
(75.96%)
26.74%
(79.70%)
58.23%
(77.41%)
複勝 58.84%
(83.87%)
58.44%
(83.11%)
59.05%
(84.79%)
61.67%
(81.92%)
68.95%
(83.97%)
63.66%
(83.54%)
56.32%
(83.97%)
89.81%
(82.44%)
枠連 16.09%
(82.81%)
16.39%
(92.40%)
15.50%
(74.11%)
21.21%
(84.65%)
--
(--)
17.80%
(76.84%)
14.50%
(79.55%)
31.15%
(75.54%)
馬連 12.74%
(81.30%)
13.32%
(84.55%)
11.91%
(79.23%)
15.83%
(63.92%)
24.66%
(69.59%)
14.96%
(79.54%)
10.92%
(82.94%)
25.88%
(69.85%)
ワイド 26.80%
(82.54%)
28.00%
(81.50%)
25.52%
(84.65%)
27.50%
(68.25%)
49.32%
(79.77%)
31.64%
(81.68%)
23.16%
(83.08%)
49.03%
(77.85%)
馬単 6.80%
(69.88%)
6.39%
(65.84%)
7.11%
(75.15%)
8.33%
(54.42%)
13.24%
(63.97%)
7.05%
(59.65%)
6.14%
(73.82%)
25.88%
(67.41%)
三連複 6.45%
(61.76%)
7.40%
(57.44%)
5.41%
(66.56%)
7.50%
(56.67%)
18.72%
(64.47%)
9.15%
(73.34%)
4.45%
(57.65%)
17.02%
(77.32%)
三連単 1.45%
(47.39%)
1.48%
(37.35%)
1.52%
(61.15%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
3.65%
(42.97%)
2.22%
(60.57%)
0.99%
(43.40%)
17.02%
(70.30%)
総合 60.03%
(73.41%)
59.74%
(72.22%)
60.15%
(75.41%)
62.50%
(62.13%)
73.52%
(68.98%)
64.28%
(73.89%)
57.40%
(73.01%)
90.07%
(72.42%)

初回としてはこんなものかなぁ。確かに曲線にする事で上位入賞に重み付け出来ているのかも。

今日は勤務先の定例会で外出なので帰宅後に残りをチェックします。良いものが出ればそれを添付して次期リリースします。変更は単純に前回追加した特徴量を無視して学習させる変更だけですが、これが致命的悪影響で単勝的中率で2~3%ダウンしてるので、今晩か明日朝にする予定です。

追記 2026.7.5 7:51
NDCG@1=0.7795 NDCG@3=0.7832が

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9~12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 28.45%
(84.64%)
27.41%
(84.03%)
29.22%
(83.66%)
32.50%
(106.67%)
35.62%
(78.77%)
29.91%
(86.66%)
27.32%
(84.50%)
58.35%
(77.63%)
複勝 59.68%
(85.75%)
59.21%
(85.41%)
59.90%
(85.83%)
63.33%
(89.42%)
70.32%
(87.40%)
64.40%
(85.67%)
57.15%
(85.62%)
89.52%
(82.57%)
枠連 16.00%
(82.11%)
16.47%
(90.87%)
15.25%
(73.94%)
21.21%
(87.27%)
--
(--)
17.18%
(75.74%)
14.59%
(79.02%)
31.21%
(77.55%)
馬連 12.65%
(81.45%)
13.03%
(83.90%)
11.97%
(79.78%)
16.67%
(69.75%)
23.74%
(61.42%)
14.71%
(78.68%)
10.96%
(84.18%)
25.85%
(73.79%)
ワイド 27.15%
(87.40%)
28.42%
(89.50%)
25.70%
(86.00%)
29.17%
(76.92%)
48.40%
(78.31%)
32.51%
(84.26%)
23.44%
(89.26%)
49.70%
(80.68%)
馬単 7.18%
(77.90%)
6.87%
(74.82%)
7.23%
(81.28%)
10.83%
(74.92%)
13.24%
(59.59%)
8.16%
(74.00%)
6.30%
(80.85%)
25.85%
(70.97%)
三連複 6.51%
(78.05%)
7.40%
(58.88%)
5.35%
(95.43%)
10.00%
(109.58%)
18.26%
(64.84%)
8.90%
(73.28%)
4.66%
(80.83%)
17.19%
(81.15%)
三連単 1.62%
(71.76%)
1.84%
(53.82%)
1.40%
(90.14%)
1.67%
(72.08%)
4.57%
(47.40%)
2.47%
(66.14%)
1.07%
(75.83%)
17.19%
(73.70%)
総合 60.78%
(81.12%)
60.57%
(77.37%)
60.81%
(84.56%)
63.33%
(85.79%)
74.43%
(68.25%)
65.02%
(78.05%)
58.14%
(82.51%)
89.84%
(75.40%)

あと一息なんだけど、NDCG@1=0.7796 NDCG@3=0.7826だと

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9~12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 27.61%
(80.99%)
27.47%
(83.90%)
27.40%
(76.95%)
32.50%
(95.33%)
36.07%
(84.75%)
29.17%
(82.14%)
26.33%
(80.26%)
58.84%
(78.55%)
複勝 59.02%
(84.27%)
59.15%
(85.07%)
58.32%
(83.06%)
66.67%
(89.58%)
70.32%
(87.40%)
64.77%
(85.53%)
56.08%
(83.57%)
89.73%
(82.97%)
枠連 16.97%
(89.62%)
17.46%
(98.67%)
16.14%
(80.43%)
23.23%
(106.97%)
--
(--)
18.79%
(83.21%)
15.29%
(86.07%)
31.54%
(78.66%)
馬連 13.31%
(87.59%)
13.80%
(89.70%)
12.33%
(84.26%)
20.00%
(103.50%)
24.20%
(63.29%)
16.07%
(88.01%)
11.41%
(89.65%)
26.08%
(73.51%)
ワイド 27.70%
(85.59%)
28.72%
(84.16%)
26.25%
(87.07%)
33.33%
(85.50%)
49.77%
(80.46%)
32.88%
(84.75%)
23.98%
(86.33%)
50.04%
(79.88%)
馬単 6.89%
(80.54%)
6.51%
(76.26%)
6.87%
(80.55%)
12.50%
(140.67%)
10.50%
(50.27%)
7.91%
(81.62%)
6.22%
(82.91%)
26.08%
(71.24%)
三連複 6.57%
(69.12%)
7.40%
(60.92%)
5.59%
(76.89%)
8.33%
(77.83%)
18.26%
(62.92%)
9.02%
(68.62%)
4.70%
(69.84%)
16.85%
(83.76%)
三連単 1.45%
(63.85%)
1.72%
(55.23%)
1.15%
(61.22%)
1.67%
(221.25%)
3.20%
(39.45%)
2.35%
(79.63%)
0.99%
(60.79%)
16.85%
(77.02%)
総合 60.41%
(80.07%)
60.69%
(78.83%)
59.66%
(78.79%)
66.67%
(115.26%)
74.89%
(66.93%)
65.51%
(81.69%)
57.40%
(79.93%)
89.96%
(77.37%)

やはりちょっと落ちるなぁ^^;

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