なかなか伸び悩んでたので、最後に追加した特徴量
- GroupZ_PrevRank1
- GroupZ_PrevRank2
- GroupZ_PrevRank3
- GroupZ_PrevRaceAto3F1
- GroupZ_PrevRaceAto3F2
- GroupRank_HirachiShokin
- GroupRank_ShogaiShokin
これ全て無視させて学習する。イテレーション数3,500、葉271、率0.01、分割数47、葉の最小50、ボーダー500、乗数1.0でNDCG@1=0.7812 NDCG@3=0.7852というモデルを検証すると
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.99% (81.57%) |
27.53% (81.50%) |
28.07% (80.67%) |
33.33% (94.83%) |
38.36% (89.68%) |
29.67% (83.02%) |
26.49% (80.35%) |
57.74% (76.26%) |
| 複勝 | 59.28% (84.42%) |
59.33% (84.80%) |
58.75% (83.92%) |
65.83% (86.00%) |
72.15% (89.91%) |
65.51% (86.59%) |
56.04% (83.20%) |
89.81% (82.79%) |
| 枠連 | 16.03% (85.06%) |
16.11% (92.07%) |
15.25% (76.60%) |
27.27% (119.90%) |
-- (--) |
17.06% (75.03%) |
14.67% (83.01%) |
31.15% (78.54%) |
| 馬連 | 12.33% (80.53%) |
12.43% (81.18%) |
11.60% (77.45%) |
20.83% (113.58%) |
23.74% (61.64%) |
14.09% (76.90%) |
10.71% (83.44%) |
25.88% (72.37%) |
| ワイド | 27.18% (88.56%) |
27.89% (89.38%) |
25.88% (87.47%) |
35.00% (92.00%) |
50.68% (84.16%) |
31.27% (82.65%) |
23.69% (90.93%) |
49.44% (77.77%) |
| 馬単 | 6.98% (77.91%) |
6.51% (74.20%) |
6.99% (76.76%) |
13.33% (145.83%) |
12.79% (63.33%) |
7.79% (79.04%) |
6.18% (78.85%) |
25.88% (69.50%) |
| 三連複 | 5.90% (64.65%) |
6.63% (52.29%) |
4.98% (74.72%) |
8.33% (100.67%) |
16.44% (61.28%) |
8.65% (64.61%) |
4.04% (64.97%) |
16.44% (78.87%) |
| 三連単 | 1.45% (44.68%) |
1.42% (39.19%) |
1.46% (43.07%) |
1.67% (144.08%) |
2.74% (32.47%) |
2.22% (49.88%) |
1.07% (44.05%) |
16.44% (74.70%) |
| 総合 | 60.69% (75.80%) |
60.98% (73.95%) |
59.96% (75.07%) |
66.67% (111.94%) |
76.26% (68.92%) |
66.13% (74.71%) |
57.48% (76.10%) |
90.13% (75.24%) |
って感じに、以前のあと一息って感じに戻った^^
追記 2026.7.2 21:49
ちょっと下にあるモデルと比較する為にイテレーション数3,000にしてみると、NDCG@1=0.7808 NDCG@3=0.7854とまあ１発で出たものなのでもう少し良いものもでるとは思うが、
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.32% (78.54%) |
26.76% (79.43%) |
27.52% (76.57%) |
32.50% (93.08%) |
33.79% (79.73%) |
28.80% (79.38%) |
26.25% (78.15%) |
58.00% (77.98%) |
| 複勝 | 58.47% (83.55%) |
58.20% (83.11%) |
58.44% (84.17%) |
62.50% (81.25%) |
69.86% (85.43%) |
64.03% (84.31%) |
55.58% (83.12%) |
89.46% (82.90%) |
| 枠連 | 16.09% (85.08%) |
16.32% (91.42%) |
15.18% (77.27%) |
27.27% (119.09%) |
-- (--) |
18.42% (84.85%) |
14.30% (79.77%) |
30.76% (75.42%) |
| 馬連 | 12.50% (77.99%) |
12.73% (81.50%) |
11.66% (72.47%) |
20.83% (104.17%) |
23.74% (63.79%) |
15.45% (86.56%) |
10.51% (76.41%) |
25.59% (71.58%) |
| ワイド | 27.32% (87.25%) |
28.66% (91.89%) |
25.39% (82.34%) |
35.00% (89.25%) |
49.32% (79.13%) |
33.37% (86.89%) |
23.32% (88.10%) |
49.38% (80.20%) |
| 馬単 | 6.74% (73.11%) |
6.45% (74.17%) |
6.62% (69.33%) |
12.50% (110.08%) |
10.96% (51.60%) |
7.79% (72.26%) |
6.02% (75.34%) |
25.59% (69.73%) |
| 三連複 | 6.28% (63.82%) |
7.16% (60.02%) |
5.16% (63.04%) |
9.17% (128.17%) |
19.18% (72.60%) |
8.78% (72.04%) |
4.29% (60.29%) |
16.73% (69.19%) |
| 三連単 | 1.24% (40.33%) |
1.36% (38.26%) |
1.15% (30.77%) |
0.83% (200.75%) |
3.20% (39.27%) |
2.10% (68.80%) |
0.78% (30.94%) |
16.73% (64.37%) |
| 総合 | 59.86% (73.55%) |
59.80% (74.63%) |
59.66% (69.45%) |
63.33% (115.65%) |
73.97% (67.36%) |
64.89% (79.39%) |
56.90% (71.52%) |
89.81% (69.41%) |
流石にちょっと落ちた感じはするもそこまで悪いとも言えないね。しかも、下のよりはいい感じなので、やはり最後に追加した特徴量がほぼ無意味だった訳だ。
追記 2026.7.2 23:21
ボーダー0にしてNDCG@1=0.7834 NDCG@3=0.7871は
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.50% (82.57%) |
27.24% (81.34%) |
27.46% (82.07%) |
31.67% (106.67%) |
40.64% (99.00%) |
28.80% (83.34%) |
25.88% (80.83%) |
56.61% (76.15%) |
| 複勝 | 59.25% (85.69%) |
59.27% (84.65%) |
58.69% (86.40%) |
66.67% (90.42%) |
73.97% (91.74%) |
64.03% (85.61%) |
56.32% (85.17%) |
89.58% (83.13%) |
| 枠連 | 15.87% (84.57%) |
16.11% (91.32%) |
14.93% (76.22%) |
27.27% (121.31%) |
-- (--) |
17.43% (79.36%) |
14.34% (80.94%) |
30.82% (78.84%) |
| 馬連 | 12.24% (79.40%) |
12.37% (80.21%) |
11.48% (76.66%) |
20.83% (105.50%) |
22.83% (59.86%) |
14.96% (83.02%) |
10.38% (79.95%) |
25.12% (70.49%) |
| ワイド | 27.35% (86.92%) |
27.95% (83.04%) |
26.12% (90.60%) |
35.83% (91.17%) |
49.77% (81.51%) |
33.13% (85.35%) |
23.40% (87.94%) |
48.80% (79.22%) |
| 馬単 | 6.54% (70.44%) |
6.57% (70.50%) |
6.08% (66.09%) |
12.50% (129.33%) |
12.33% (52.56%) |
7.91% (77.33%) |
5.56% (69.76%) |
25.12% (67.54%) |
| 三連複 | 6.16% (66.24%) |
7.10% (63.13%) |
5.10% (68.60%) |
7.50% (77.75%) |
18.72% (83.24%) |
8.03% (64.78%) |
4.41% (65.20%) |
15.80% (69.31%) |
| 三連単 | 1.30% (65.71%) |
1.66% (83.00%) |
0.97% (48.68%) |
0.83% (56.08%) |
3.20% (32.15%) |
1.85% (78.70%) |
0.95% (64.41%) |
15.80% (65.93%) |
| 総合 | 60.38% (77.60%) |
60.45% (79.40%) |
59.78% (74.41%) |
67.50% (96.74%) |
77.17% (71.44%) |
64.40% (79.69%) |
57.52% (76.77%) |
89.90% (69.87%) |
っとやはり、ボーダー0にすると指数的にはかなり上がるけど、検証的にはそれ程でもないんだよね。イテレーション数が500低いとかなりダイエットが出来るので、この線で行ければとは思うけど、ダメかなぁ。3,000だと18MB、3,500だと20MBなんだけど^^;
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