昨夜試した学習はイテレーション数2,000にしました。ここまで採用したのは3,000でしたが、モデルサイズが16MBでした。葉の数増やして細かくフィットされてみる為にイテレーション数を減らし葉を増やす。どの程度影響してるか把握はしてないけど分割数も減らす。で、昨夜は率は0.015でした。これだと13MB。
で、今試しているのは
NumberOfLeaves: 335
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 31
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点
なんですが、葉をさらに増やして率は0.01に。これだとほぼ15MBに近くなります。15回目でNDCG@1=0.7792 NDCG@3=0.7831
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 28.19% (81.12%) |
28.18% (83.61%) |
28.13% (78.41%) |
29.17% (83.08%) |
38.36% (85.71%) |
29.30% (83.20%) |
26.91% (80.01%) |
57.97% (76.82%) |
| 複勝 | 59.25% (84.19%) |
59.15% (84.25%) |
59.05% (84.28%) |
63.33% (82.25%) |
72.15% (88.68%) |
63.91% (83.99%) |
56.53% (83.86%) |
89.58% (82.45%) |
| 枠連 | 17.20% (91.22%) |
17.10% (98.08%) |
16.77% (83.53%) |
25.25% (115.96%) |
-- (--) |
19.16% (83.76%) |
15.45% (87.92%) |
31.25% (76.44%) |
| 馬連 | 13.43% (86.48%) |
13.62% (88.19%) |
12.88% (84.61%) |
18.33% (87.92%) |
25.57% (69.36%) |
15.57% (83.91%) |
11.62% (88.88%) |
25.59% (71.78%) |
| ワイド | 27.70% (87.24%) |
28.60% (84.49%) |
26.49% (90.47%) |
31.67% (81.42%) |
51.14% (82.74%) |
32.88% (86.21%) |
23.86% (87.99%) |
49.23% (78.49%) |
| 馬単 | 7.29% (79.09%) |
7.10% (77.99%) |
7.23% (78.21%) |
10.83% (106.67%) |
14.16% (66.62%) |
8.53% (79.68%) |
6.26% (80.02%) |
25.59% (68.85%) |
| 三連複 | 6.11% (69.57%) |
6.87% (54.32%) |
5.22% (85.29%) |
7.50% (68.50%) |
18.26% (65.89%) |
8.28% (64.73%) |
4.29% (71.51%) |
17.05% (73.01%) |
| 三連単 | 1.45% (54.97%) |
1.84% (75.58%) |
1.15% (37.83%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.65% (36.03%) |
2.22% (54.89%) |
0.99% (56.70%) |
17.05% (68.31%) |
| 総合 | 60.38% (79.07%) |
60.45% (80.45%) |
60.09% (77.80%) |
63.33% (77.38%) |
75.34% (70.72%) |
64.77% (77.55%) |
57.56% (79.61%) |
89.87% (71.43%) |
まあまだのこり20回以上あるので良いものが出る事を期待したいです。ワイドが頑張ってる感じがします。なんか工夫次第で行ける範囲なきもする。
期待値で絞って攻めるのもありかも。これ、クラス別を作りこむの忘れてたのでこの後追加してみます。
追記 2026.7.25 20:34
21回目のNDCG@1=0.7799 NDCG@3=0.7828
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 28.45% (83.55%) |
27.77% (81.64%) |
28.86% (83.94%) |
32.50% (105.08%) |
41.10% (94.79%) |
29.54% (82.98%) |
26.95% (82.73%) |
58.38% (78.69%) |
| 複勝 | 59.16% (84.58%) |
58.85% (83.69%) |
59.05% (85.02%) |
65.00% (91.00%) |
72.15% (89.63%) |
64.03% (84.10%) |
56.37% (84.28%) |
89.70% (83.06%) |
| 枠連 | 15.96% (85.98%) |
16.04% (93.53%) |
15.37% (78.35%) |
24.24% (99.90%) |
-- (--) |
18.17% (83.05%) |
14.22% (81.50%) |
31.44% (78.80%) |
| 馬連 | 12.79% (83.87%) |
13.08% (86.83%) |
12.09% (80.90%) |
18.33% (83.08%) |
23.74% (61.64%) |
15.45% (86.60%) |
10.92% (84.97%) |
25.93% (80.49%) |
| ワイド | 27.61% (88.42%) |
28.72% (85.54%) |
26.00% (91.66%) |
34.17% (84.42%) |
49.77% (80.32%) |
32.51% (83.77%) |
23.98% (90.70%) |
49.73% (81.11%) |
| 馬単 | 6.98% (76.81%) |
6.81% (79.00%) |
6.93% (75.03%) |
10.00% (70.50%) |
13.24% (60.14%) |
7.91% (81.42%) |
6.10% (76.78%) |
25.93% (78.38%) |
| 三連複 | 6.08% (68.47%) |
6.63% (51.05%) |
5.47% (86.93%) |
6.67% (60.50%) |
16.89% (54.89%) |
8.53% (65.34%) |
4.29% (70.75%) |
16.96% (79.24%) |
| 三連単 | 1.27% (33.22%) |
1.48% (38.68%) |
1.15% (30.04%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
4.11% (45.48%) |
1.85% (42.48%) |
0.82% (29.03%) |
16.96% (73.30%) |
| 総合 | 60.26% (75.47%) |
60.09% (74.60%) |
60.09% (76.47%) |
65.00% (73.74%) |
75.34% (69.56%) |
64.77% (76.22%) |
57.40% (75.09%) |
90.04% (76.57%) |
これはどうなんだろうって感じのモデルが最適なのか、24回目のNDCG@1=0.7779 NDCG@3=0.7832
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 28.02% (81.60%) |
27.77% (83.04%) |
28.01% (79.29%) |
31.67% (93.08%) |
35.62% (79.50%) |
29.30% (83.61%) |
26.91% (81.12%) |
58.52% (78.78%) |
| 複勝 | 59.28% (84.75%) |
58.67% (83.57%) |
59.54% (85.88%) |
64.17% (85.92%) |
70.32% (86.80%) |
65.51% (87.24%) |
56.20% (83.74%) |
89.29% (82.66%) |
| 枠連 | 16.35% (87.24%) |
17.25% (98.55%) |
15.25% (77.03%) |
21.21% (88.48%) |
-- (--) |
18.42% (83.83%) |
14.63% (82.84%) |
31.31% (78.14%) |
| 馬連 | 12.88% (83.62%) |
13.91% (90.11%) |
11.66% (78.54%) |
15.00% (61.92%) |
25.11% (68.54%) |
15.33% (83.50%) |
10.96% (85.02%) |
26.05% (74.98%) |
| ワイド | 27.24% (84.06%) |
29.31% (85.88%) |
24.97% (83.49%) |
29.17% (66.42%) |
51.14% (83.93%) |
33.00% (84.03%) |
23.16% (84.09%) |
49.52% (79.86%) |
| 馬単 | 6.98% (76.44%) |
7.10% (81.28%) |
6.68% (72.64%) |
9.17% (60.50%) |
13.24% (60.73%) |
8.03% (76.70%) |
6.06% (77.78%) |
26.05% (71.85%) |
| 三連複 | 6.22% (67.93%) |
6.87% (53.17%) |
5.41% (81.77%) |
8.33% (85.83%) |
18.26% (69.18%) |
8.90% (70.44%) |
4.24% (66.98%) |
16.53% (74.02%) |
| 三連単 | 1.30% (41.31%) |
1.60% (57.77%) |
1.09% (27.44%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.65% (34.20%) |
1.85% (44.39%) |
0.91% (40.93%) |
16.53% (67.39%) |
| 総合 | 60.67% (75.71%) |
60.33% (78.76%) |
60.75% (73.24%) |
64.17% (67.31%) |
75.34% (68.98%) |
66.50% (76.72%) |
57.40% (75.31%) |
89.58% (71.93%) |
これはダメだorz これはちと葉の数がマイナスになってるかも^^;
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