本日使用するモデルは
[Loop 9] NDCG@1 = 0.7667
[Loop 9] NDCG@3 = 0.7730
[Loop 9] NDCG@5 = 0.7886
[Loop 9] NDCG@10 = 0.8494
総合的には
| 2,610R | 1点 | 芝(1,278R) | ダート(1,243R) | 障害(89R) | 8頭以下(157R) | 9～12頭(665R) | 13頭以上(1,788R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 25.21% (73.46%) |
24.96% (75.63%) |
25.66% (72.43%) |
22.47% (56.74%) |
32.48% (68.15%) |
27.82% (72.68%) |
23.60% (74.22%) |
55.48% (75.63%) |
| 複勝 | 54.90% (77.16%) |
52.90% (75.47%) |
56.72% (78.90%) |
58.43% (77.19%) |
63.06% (85.61%) |
59.40% (75.92%) |
52.52% (76.88%) |
89.62% (80.48%) |
| 枠連 | 14.48% (81.73%) |
13.51% (89.50%) |
15.16% (74.27%) |
17.72% (86.20%) |
-- (--) |
14.44% (66.24%) |
13.65% (82.69%) |
30.54% (78.29%) |
| 馬連 | 10.54% (68.56%) |
9.70% (74.37%) |
11.26% (62.55%) |
12.36% (68.99%) |
21.66% (80.00%) |
11.73% (64.74%) |
9.12% (68.97%) |
23.56% (72.53%) |
| ワイド | 24.52% (74.24%) |
23.08% (71.63%) |
26.07% (76.54%) |
23.60% (79.66%) |
39.49% (69.43%) |
27.82% (73.70%) |
21.98% (74.87%) |
46.28% (75.56%) |
| 馬単 | 6.21% (62.91%) |
5.56% (64.22%) |
6.92% (62.17%) |
5.62% (54.49%) |
12.74% (72.10%) |
7.37% (70.05%) |
5.20% (59.45%) |
23.56% (70.08%) |
| 三連複 | 6.90% (105.38%) |
6.49% (129.29%) |
7.48% (86.37%) |
4.49% (27.64%) |
12.74% (72.10%) |
7.67% (60.32%) |
6.10% (125.07%) |
16.82% (74.24%) |
| 三連単 | 2.03% (135.03%) |
1.56% (102.03%) |
2.57% (176.43%) |
1.12% (30.67%) |
3.18% (93.82%) |
2.56% (126.23%) |
1.73% (141.92%) |
16.82% (70.31%) |
| 総合 | 56.90% (84.85%) |
55.48% (85.19%) |
58.25% (86.28%) |
58.43% (59.83%) |
66.24% (77.32%) |
60.15% (76.23%) |
54.87% (88.01%) |
89.81% (72.44%) |
新馬戦
| 183R | 1点 | 芝(129R) | ダート(54R) | 8頭以下(28R) | 9～12頭(68R) | 13頭以上(87R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 16.39% (50.98%) |
18.60% (58.60%) |
11.11% (32.78%) |
28.57% (55.36%) |
22.06% (66.47%) |
8.05% (37.47%) |
48.63% (79.64%) |
| 複勝 | 41.53% (69.78%) |
42.64% (64.11%) |
38.89% (83.33%) |
57.14% (103.57%) |
42.65% (58.82%) |
35.63% (67.47%) |
83.61% (74.68%) |
| 枠連 | 9.52% (124.56%) |
13.40% (178.25%) |
2.00% (20.40%) |
-- (--) |
10.29% (62.35%) |
8.05% (161.72%) |
23.81% (112.16%) |
| 馬連 | 7.65% (115.30%) |
10.85% (163.57%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
21.43% (157.86%) |
5.88% (40.44%) |
4.60% (160.11%) |
15.85% (84.17%) |
| ワイド | 13.11% (60.71%) |
17.05% (72.71%) |
3.70% (32.04%) |
35.71% (95.36%) |
10.29% (29.26%) |
8.05% (74.14%) |
28.96% (56.68%) |
| 馬単 | 4.37% (56.67%) |
6.20% (80.39%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
14.29% (177.86%) |
5.88% (79.26%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
15.85% (84.03%) |
| 三連複 | 1.64% (23.61%) |
2.33% (33.49%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.57% (97.50%) |
2.94% (23.38%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
7.10% (25.03%) |
| 三連単 | 1.64% (94.75%) |
2.33% (134.42%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.57% (308.93%) |
2.94% (127.79%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
7.10% (17.01%) |
| 総合 | 43.17% (73.28%) |
44.96% (95.63%) |
38.89% (21.07%) |
57.14% (142.35%) |
45.59% (60.97%) |
36.78% (62.61%) |
83.61% (44.60%) |
新馬戦以外
| 2,427R | 1点 | 芝(1,149R) | ダート(1,189R) | 障害(89R) | 8頭以下(129R) | 9～12頭(597R) | 13頭以上(1,701R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 25.88% (75.16%) |
25.67% (77.55%) |
26.32% (74.23%) |
22.47% (56.74%) |
33.33% (70.93%) |
28.48% (73.38%) |
24.40% (76.10%) |
56.00% (75.32%) |
| 複勝 | 55.91% (77.72%) |
54.05% (76.74%) |
57.53% (78.70%) |
58.43% (77.19%) |
64.34% (81.71%) |
61.31% (77.87%) |
53.38% (77.36%) |
90.07% (80.91%) |
| 枠連 | 14.81% (78.87%) |
13.52% (80.82%) |
15.74% (76.65%) |
17.72% (86.20%) |
-- (--) |
14.91% (66.68%) |
13.93% (78.65%) |
30.99% (76.01%) |
| 馬連 | 10.75% (65.03%) |
9.57% (64.35%) |
11.77% (65.39%) |
12.36% (68.99%) |
21.71% (63.10%) |
12.40% (67.50%) |
9.35% (64.31%) |
24.15% (71.65%) |
| ワイド | 25.38% (75.26%) |
23.76% (71.51%) |
27.08% (78.56%) |
23.60% (79.66%) |
40.31% (63.80%) |
29.82% (78.76%) |
22.69% (74.90%) |
47.59% (76.98%) |
| 馬単 | 6.35% (63.38%) |
5.48% (62.40%) |
7.23% (65.00%) |
5.62% (54.49%) |
12.40% (49.15%) |
7.54% (68.99%) |
5.47% (62.49%) |
24.15% (69.03%) |
| 三連複 | 7.29% (111.55%) |
6.96% (140.04%) |
7.82% (90.29%) |
4.49% (27.64%) |
14.73% (66.59%) |
8.21% (64.52%) |
6.41% (131.46%) |
17.55% (77.95%) |
| 三連単 | 2.06% (138.07%) |
1.48% (98.40%) |
2.69% (184.44%) |
1.12% (30.67%) |
3.10% (47.13%) |
2.51% (126.05%) |
1.82% (149.18%) |
17.55% (74.33%) |
| 総合 | 57.93% (85.71%) |
56.66% (84.03%) |
59.13% (89.23%) |
58.43% (59.83%) |
68.22% (63.20%) |
61.81% (77.97%) |
55.79% (89.31%) |
90.28% (74.53%) |
追記 2026.10.31 10:28
さらだには期待値分析機能を実装してるんですが、このモデル
つまり、期待値設定1.0にして買い目絞り込めば黒字化が可能。これ、更に言えば全券種でプラスに牽引してるのは三連系なんです。
まあ、数値的にはそうなんだけど、当たり前に1点買いでは滅多に当たりが来ない(笑) 1点買いだから出費を抑えて当たりが来た時には回収可能って事の様です。
この期待値分析機能なんだけど、今後多点買いまたは、現在の1点買いは1点目の期待値で判断してるけど、期待値が超える最初の1点にするとかも検討中。
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