８月終わりにここに書いてたランキングモデルはここ最近のより精度が良かった記憶なので試してみた。当時と違うのは、学習データ期間が2024年までだったのが2025年までに増えた。
NumberOfLeaves: 303
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 31
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
FeatureFraction: 0.75
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は0.95乗に0～1000点
その時は40回と書かれてるが取敢えず10回やると
[Loop 10] NDCG@1 = 0.7672
[Loop 10] NDCG@3 = 0.7727
[Loop 10] NDCG@5 = 0.7883
[Loop 10] NDCG@10 = 0.8493
| 2,610R | 1点 | 芝(1,278R) | ダート(1,243R) | 障害(89R) | 8頭以下(157R) | 9～12頭(665R) | 13頭以上(1,788R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 24.10% (70.65%) |
23.16% (69.30%) |
25.18% (73.40%) |
22.47% (51.57%) |
33.12% (68.85%) |
25.86% (65.44%) |
22.65% (72.75%) |
55.33% (77.05%) |
| 複勝 | 55.25% (78.93%) |
52.66% (76.79%) |
57.52% (81.01%) |
60.67% (80.56%) |
64.33% (88.22%) |
59.55% (77.43%) |
52.85% (78.67%) |
89.62% (81.15%) |
| 枠連 | 14.18% (80.48%) |
12.87% (87.11%) |
15.41% (75.39%) |
13.92% (65.19%) |
-- (--) |
14.14% (63.01%) |
13.37% (82.25%) |
30.96% (78.89%) |
| 馬連 | 10.19% (69.37%) |
9.31% (76.52%) |
11.18% (63.56%) |
8.99% (47.98%) |
21.02% (90.64%) |
11.43% (61.92%) |
8.78% (70.27%) |
23.91% (73.31%) |
| ワイド | 24.87% (76.23%) |
23.94% (75.76%) |
26.15% (77.35%) |
20.22% (67.30%) |
41.40% (77.58%) |
28.42% (77.26%) |
22.09% (75.72%) |
46.82% (75.20%) |
| 馬単 | 5.82% (60.96%) |
4.69% (56.32%) |
6.92% (65.99%) |
6.74% (57.30%) |
11.46% (63.63%) |
6.92% (55.13%) |
4.92% (62.89%) |
23.91% (72.16%) |
| 三連複 | 6.82% (73.74%) |
6.34% (66.03%) |
7.48% (84.97%) |
4.49% (27.64%) |
13.38% (63.82%) |
7.37% (61.74%) |
6.04% (79.07%) |
16.55% (74.96%) |
| 三連単 | 1.61% (102.80%) |
1.02% (74.78%) |
2.25% (136.78%) |
1.12% (30.67%) |
2.55% (30.13%) |
1.80% (44.33%) |
1.45% (130.93%) |
16.55% (73.43%) |
| 総合 | 57.13% (76.60%) |
54.85% (72.56%) |
59.13% (82.35%) |
61.80% (53.36%) |
66.88% (68.98%) |
60.45% (63.28%) |
55.03% (81.57%) |
89.77% (74.49%) |
やはり的中率はここ最近のモデルより良い。配収率は負けてますけど^^; まっ、試しに10回だし、イテレーション数も2,000と抑えた感じなので、ここ最近の3,000で40回スタートさせてみるかな。
一応今回のNDCG@3的には
[Loop 7] NDCG@1 = 0.7666
[Loop 7] NDCG@3 = 0.7730
[Loop 7] NDCG@5 = 0.7888
[Loop 7] NDCG@10 = 0.8495
| 2,610R | 1点 | 芝(1,278R) | ダート(1,243R) | 障害(89R) | 8頭以下(157R) | 9～12頭(665R) | 13頭以上(1,788R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 24.52% (72.59%) |
24.26% (73.83%) |
24.78% (72.15%) |
24.72% (60.90%) |
31.85% (67.71%) |
27.07% (67.61%) |
22.93% (74.87%) |
55.33% (76.32%) |
| 複勝 | 55.63% (79.28%) |
53.68% (78.33%) |
57.36% (80.37%) |
59.55% (77.87%) |
64.33% (89.43%) |
60.75% (79.20%) |
52.96% (78.42%) |
89.73% (82.01%) |
| 枠連 | 13.93% (75.20%) |
12.87% (86.37%) |
14.73% (64.72%) |
16.46% (78.10%) |
-- (--) |
12.93% (56.21%) |
13.48% (77.85%) |
30.66% (76.85%) |
| 馬連 | 10.08% (63.41%) |
9.39% (72.80%) |
10.78% (54.50%) |
10.11% (52.92%) |
20.38% (90.57%) |
10.68% (55.14%) |
8.95% (64.09%) |
24.21% (79.66%) |
| ワイド | 24.06% (72.49%) |
23.24% (73.30%) |
24.94% (71.17%) |
23.60% (79.44%) |
38.85% (71.40%) |
27.22% (73.29%) |
21.59% (72.29%) |
47.39% (78.65%) |
| 馬単 | 5.67% (54.59%) |
5.16% (59.07%) |
6.11% (50.23%) |
6.74% (51.24%) |
12.10% (91.08%) |
6.77% (54.35%) |
4.70% (51.48%) |
24.21% (77.17%) |
| 三連複 | 6.93% (103.52%) |
6.96% (135.84%) |
7.00% (70.56%) |
5.62% (99.78%) |
14.65% (102.55%) |
7.82% (71.52%) |
5.93% (115.51%) |
16.32% (69.37%) |
| 三連単 | 1.38% (60.31%) |
1.17% (60.16%) |
1.61% (62.57%) |
1.12% (30.67%) |
2.55% (146.75%) |
1.95% (45.53%) |
1.06% (58.21%) |
16.32% (66.71%) |
| 総合 | 57.51% (72.64%) |
56.18% (79.84%) |
58.73% (65.79%) |
59.55% (66.20%) |
67.52% (94.21%) |
61.20% (62.86%) |
55.26% (74.09%) |
89.81% (71.83%) |
なんとも言えない(笑)
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