2025/10/21

autoMLにちょっと期待して

1ヶ月程Model Builderで学習させてましたが、あまりにも良いものがってか期待するものが出なくて、まあ、そもそも自力でautoMLでの学習も可能にしてますので、ちょっと試してます。

これってそもそも自分が楽出来る様に工夫もしてるので、Model Builderとは違って学習時間と回数が指定出来るのでModel Builderの様に1度終わってまたって感じではなく、例えば、新馬戦用だと学習データサイズ的(24.3MB)に10分でも良いわけですが、30分を数回しても期待薄だったので1時間を何度かってか、結構な回数をやって、ここまでの最適RMSE 1.9944で

135R 1点 芝(101R) ダート(34R) 8頭以下(21R) 9~12頭(47R) 13頭以上(67R) 多点
単勝 21.48%
(59.33%)
22.77%
(64.95%)
17.65%
(42.65%)
38.10%
(103.33%)
23.40%
(50.00%)
14.93%
(52.09%)
51.85%
(83.28%)
複勝 45.93%
(74.00%)
49.50%
(81.58%)
35.29%
(51.47%)
66.67%
(89.05%)
57.45%
(95.11%)
31.34%
(54.48%)
83.70%
(80.15%)
枠連 6.80%
(39.61%)
5.48%
(21.37%)
10.00%
(84.00%)
--
(--)
4.26%
(17.66%)
7.46%
(48.51%)
20.39%
(53.20%)
馬連 6.67%
(30.44%)
7.92%
(36.53%)
2.94%
(12.35%)
23.81%
(108.10%)
4.26%
(19.57%)
2.99%
(13.73%)
17.78%
(50.40%)
ワイド 14.81%
(55.41%)
16.83%
(53.66%)
8.82%
(60.59%)
38.10%
(68.10%)
14.89%
(55.53%)
7.46%
(51.34%)
40.00%
(83.41%)
馬単 3.70%
(22.15%)
4.95%
(29.60%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
14.29%
(82.86%)
2.13%
(13.40%)
1.49%
(9.25%)
17.78%
(51.57%)
三連複 4.44%
(57.70%)
5.94%
(77.13%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
19.05%
(94.29%)
2.13%
(51.28%)
1.49%
(50.75%)
13.33%
(42.87%)
三連単 1.48%
(27.04%)
1.98%
(36.14%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
9.52%
(173.81%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
13.33%
(33.43%)
総合 46.67%
(45.90%)
50.50%
(51.15%)
35.29%
(30.60%)
66.67%
(102.79%)
57.45%
(37.82%)
32.84%
(35.02%)
83.70%
(47.55%)

まだまだ実戦向きではないかと思います。通常用(1.4GB)は3時間以上って事で4時間にしてみて20回程を今やってます。既に11回終わった時点の最適RMSEは1.4165で

945R 1点 芝(490R) ダート(419R) 障害(36R) 8頭以下(98R) 9~12頭(257R) 13頭以上(590R) 多点
単勝 21.90%
(76.23%)
22.04%
(82.82%)
21.00%
(69.81%)
30.56%
(61.39%)
41.84%
(102.55%)
20.23%
(56.69%)
19.32%
(80.37%)
49.63%
(78.72%)
複勝 53.23%
(88.85%)
54.08%
(92.67%)
51.55%
(84.73%)
61.11%
(84.72%)
73.47%
(102.86%)
59.14%
(92.37%)
47.29%
(84.98%)
85.08%
(83.14%)
枠連 11.87%
(87.53%)
11.52%
(83.40%)
11.46%
(88.75%)
23.08%
(130.00%)
--
(--)
14.79%
(85.88%)
9.49%
(80.08%)
26.26%
(87.63%)
馬連 9.63%
(91.86%)
10.00%
(78.20%)
8.59%
(101.15%)
16.67%
(169.72%)
23.47%
(90.82%)
11.67%
(81.60%)
6.44%
(96.51%)
22.22%
(89.05%)
ワイド 19.79%
(78.85%)
20.00%
(74.49%)
18.62%
(83.05%)
30.56%
(89.17%)
32.65%
(56.02%)
24.51%
(69.81%)
15.59%
(86.58%)
42.43%
(86.23%)
馬単 4.34%
(69.51%)
4.49%
(51.82%)
3.58%
(86.35%)
11.11%
(114.44%)
11.22%
(70.61%)
4.67%
(56.65%)
3.05%
(74.93%)
22.22%
(83.87%)
三連複 5.40%
(85.58%)
5.10%
(44.51%)
5.73%
(137.42%)
5.56%
(41.11%)
11.22%
(44.29%)
7.00%
(79.65%)
3.73%
(95.02%)
15.03%
(98.84%)
三連単 1.16%
(167.56%)
1.02%
(56.55%)
1.19%
(303.53%)
2.78%
(95.83%)
3.06%
(47.55%)
0.78%
(93.70%)
1.02%
(219.66%)
15.03%
(89.88%)
総合 54.71%
(93.36%)
55.71%
(70.19%)
52.98%
(119.67%)
61.11%
(97.16%)
74.49%
(73.53%)
59.92%
(77.04%)
49.15%
(102.27%)
85.93%
(88.37%)

こちらも当然まだまだだね。

追記 2025.10.22 18:44
少し前に帰宅後に終わってた学習はRMSE 1.4023でしたが、

945R 1点 芝(490R) ダート(419R) 障害(36R) 8頭以下(98R) 9~12頭(257R) 13頭以上(590R) 多点
単勝 23.49%
(76.67%)
23.88%
(79.27%)
22.43%
(75.23%)
30.56%
(58.06%)
45.92%
(109.39%)
22.57%
(63.81%)
20.17%
(76.83%)
53.12%
(83.63%)
複勝 51.75%
(77.92%)
51.43%
(78.73%)
51.55%
(77.18%)
58.33%
(75.28%)
69.39%
(91.43%)
57.20%
(78.29%)
46.44%
(75.51%)
87.30%
(83.66%)
枠連 13.13%
(82.47%)
12.30%
(74.69%)
13.28%
(88.85%)
23.08%
(102.69%)
--
(--)
17.90%
(107.47%)
9.83%
(63.90%)
27.78%
(82.79%)
馬連 9.63%
(76.53%)
8.78%
(61.22%)
9.79%
(93.56%)
19.44%
(86.67%)
22.45%
(67.86%)
12.06%
(96.19%)
6.44%
(69.41%)
24.66%
(112.01%)
ワイド 20.85%
(71.57%)
19.39%
(62.04%)
21.48%
(82.63%)
33.33%
(72.50%)
39.80%
(71.43%)
25.68%
(75.76%)
15.59%
(69.76%)
44.55%
(92.08%)
馬単 5.29%
(72.46%)
4.08%
(41.29%)
5.73%
(104.73%)
16.67%
(121.11%)
16.33%
(91.94%)
5.84%
(89.96%)
3.22%
(61.59%)
24.66%
(105.34%)
三連複 6.46%
(98.69%)
5.92%
(68.47%)
6.68%
(135.27%)
11.11%
(84.17%)
14.29%
(83.57%)
8.17%
(96.03%)
4.41%
(102.36%)
17.35%
(80.78%)
三連単 1.16%
(40.02%)
1.02%
(10.37%)
0.95%
(68.33%)
5.56%
(114.17%)
6.12%
(70.00%)
0.78%
(15.99%)
0.51%
(45.51%)
17.35%
(75.53%)
総合 53.65%
(74.38%)
53.67%
(59.08%)
52.98%
(90.74%)
61.11%
(88.85%)
73.47%
(83.66%)
60.31%
(77.94%)
47.46%
(70.61%)
87.51%
(84.31%)

進展は感じますが、も少し欲しいですね。

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