苦労させられてますが、新馬戦用モデルは今2時間×5回の学習中です。1回目の最適RMSE 1.9148
| 304R | 1点 | 芝(203R) | ダート(101R) | 8頭以下(31R) | 9～12頭(89R) | 13頭以上(184R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 25.00% (104.57%) |
27.09% (119.90%) |
20.79% (73.76%) |
48.39% (110.65%) |
21.35% (75.28%) |
22.83% (117.72%) |
46.71% (71.62%) |
| 複勝 | 54.61% (97.14%) |
58.13% (101.23%) |
47.52% (88.91%) |
80.65% (115.81%) |
58.43% (86.07%) |
48.37% (99.35%) |
83.22% (76.79%) |
| 枠連 | 13.04% (102.57%) |
13.92% (108.42%) |
11.58% (92.84%) |
-- (--) |
15.73% (107.87%) |
10.33% (88.86%) |
21.74% (73.38%) |
| 馬連 | 9.21% (82.66%) |
10.84% (92.07%) |
5.94% (63.76%) |
22.58% (119.03%) |
13.48% (94.27%) |
4.89% (70.92%) |
14.14% (69.65%) |
| ワイド | 20.07% (100.03%) |
23.15% (117.93%) |
13.86% (64.06%) |
48.39% (83.55%) |
22.47% (86.52%) |
14.13% (109.35%) |
31.58% (71.17%) |
| 馬単 | 3.95% (67.34%) |
4.93% (65.96%) |
1.98% (70.10%) |
9.68% (43.55%) |
6.74% (120.90%) |
1.63% (45.43%) |
14.14% (65.20%) |
| 三連複 | 2.63% (70.69%) |
2.96% (84.14%) |
1.98% (43.66%) |
6.45% (21.29%) |
2.25% (23.71%) |
2.17% (101.74%) |
7.24% (55.44%) |
| 三連単 | 0.33% (10.39%) |
0.49% (15.57%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
1.12% (35.51%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
7.24% (59.03%) |
| 総合 | 55.59% (78.93%) |
58.62% (87.57%) |
49.50% (61.91%) |
80.65% (70.55%) |
58.43% (78.76%) |
50.00% (79.17%) |
84.54% (63.49%) |
これはまあまあかな。明日朝にはこれ以上が出ていればなお良しです。
追記 2026.9.5 6:30
今回の2時間×5回では最終的に最適RMSE 1.9069で
| 304R | 1点 | 芝(203R) | ダート(101R) | 8頭以下(31R) | 9～12頭(89R) | 13頭以上(184R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 24.34% (84.57%) |
25.62% (85.96%) |
21.78% (81.78%) |
38.71% (88.06%) |
28.09% (103.15%) |
20.11% (75.00%) |
48.36% (74.11%) |
| 複勝 | 51.97% (88.26%) |
57.14% (98.42%) |
41.58% (67.82%) |
70.97% (102.90%) |
61.80% (98.88%) |
44.02% (80.65%) |
80.26% (78.37%) |
| 枠連 | 9.88% (92.57%) |
12.66% (123.29%) |
5.26% (41.47%) |
-- (--) |
8.99% (86.40%) |
9.24% (85.49%) |
22.13% (80.58%) |
| 馬連 | 8.22% (89.08%) |
10.84% (126.31%) |
2.97% (14.26%) |
35.48% (185.48%) |
6.74% (85.28%) |
4.35% (74.67%) |
16.78% (67.97%) |
| ワイド | 18.09% (105.49%) |
22.66% (100.79%) |
8.91% (114.95%) |
58.06% (103.87%) |
11.24% (51.69%) |
14.67% (131.79%) |
37.83% (84.19%) |
| 馬単 | 4.28% (67.04%) |
5.42% (87.88%) |
1.98% (25.15%) |
12.90% (55.16%) |
3.37% (22.13%) |
3.26% (90.76%) |
16.78% (66.84%) |
| 三連複 | 2.63% (123.72%) |
2.96% (150.10%) |
1.98% (70.69%) |
9.68% (110.00%) |
1.12% (5.62%) |
2.17% (183.15%) |
9.87% (178.98%) |
| 三連単 | 0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
9.87% (147.32%) |
| 総合 | 53.62% (81.10%) |
58.62% (95.83%) |
43.56% (52.09%) |
70.97% (92.21%) |
61.80% (56.64%) |
46.74% (90.19%) |
81.25% (119.03%) |
ただ、これ、的中率的にみると前者。回収率は後者。もう少し時間延ばして回数も増やし、更に上を目指しても良いのかも。
追記 2026.9.6 6:39
3時間×10回なんで30時間掛かる。残り2回あるが中断するかも^^; いや、7回終了して保存2個。つまり5回は同じ結果。数分で8回目も終わるがこれ以上意味ないかもってか、ある可能性はは0%ではないけど、一旦新馬戦は終わりにして次始めたい。ここまでの最適RMSE 1.9055
| 452R | 1点 | 芝(309R) | ダート(143R) | 8頭以下(56R) | 9～12頭(142R) | 13頭以上(254R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 21.46% (81.11%) |
23.30% (85.73%) |
17.48% (71.12%) |
39.29% (92.68%) |
22.54% (95.07%) |
16.93% (70.75%) |
42.92% (64.42%) |
| 複勝 | 50.22% (84.05%) |
52.10% (86.44%) |
46.15% (78.88%) |
71.43% (98.93%) |
49.30% (77.32%) |
46.06% (84.53%) |
81.42% (79.37%) |
| 枠連 | 8.97% (79.10%) |
8.97% (75.21%) |
8.96% (85.90%) |
-- (--) |
6.34% (30.28%) |
9.45% (97.68%) |
20.92% (89.48%) |
| 馬連 | 7.74% (98.96%) |
9.06% (84.66%) |
4.90% (129.86%) |
26.79% (122.86%) |
5.63% (24.58%) |
4.72% (135.28%) |
13.72% (74.63%) |
| ワイド | 15.49% (91.37%) |
18.12% (100.87%) |
9.79% (70.84%) |
42.86% (81.07%) |
11.97% (53.38%) |
11.42% (114.88%) |
31.42% (80.74%) |
| 馬単 | 3.98% (85.29%) |
4.85% (55.57%) |
2.10% (149.51%) |
12.50% (106.43%) |
2.82% (17.04%) |
2.76% (118.78%) |
13.72% (72.70%) |
| 三連複 | 2.88% (111.55%) |
4.21% (163.17%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
10.71% (51.25%) |
2.82% (86.13%) |
1.18% (139.06%) |
9.96% (62.51%) |
| 三連単 | 0.44% (9.93%) |
0.65% (14.53%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.57% (80.18%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
9.96% (67.38%) |
| 総合 | 51.55% (80.20%) |
53.40% (83.53%) |
47.55% (73.16%) |
71.43% (90.48%) |
50.00% (47.98%) |
48.03% (95.12%) |
82.30% (70.53%) |
ここまで比較する為にも検証は常に2025年でしてきたけど、これは試しに2025.1.1～2026.8.31(20か月)でしてみた。2025年のみだと
| 304R | 1点 | 芝(203R) | ダート(101R) | 8頭以下(31R) | 9～12頭(89R) | 13頭以上(184R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 23.36% (87.50%) |
25.62% (98.13%) |
18.81% (66.14%) |
41.94% (101.61%) |
23.60% (85.06%) |
20.11% (86.30%) |
44.41% (66.27%) |
| 複勝 | 53.95% (91.25%) |
57.64% (95.81%) |
46.53% (82.08%) |
83.87% (120.97%) |
55.06% (80.45%) |
48.37% (91.47%) |
82.89% (79.07%) |
| 枠連 | 11.07% (103.52%) |
11.39% (101.39%) |
10.53% (107.05%) |
-- (--) |
7.87% (38.88%) |
11.41% (123.53%) |
22.53% (84.73%) |
| 馬連 | 9.54% (130.16%) |
11.33% (108.28%) |
5.94% (174.16%) |
38.71% (116.45%) |
6.74% (25.06%) |
5.98% (183.32%) |
13.82% (68.11%) |
| ワイド | 18.42% (111.38%) |
21.18% (118.82%) |
12.87% (96.44%) |
54.84% (81.29%) |
13.48% (51.46%) |
14.67% (145.43%) |
32.24% (77.64%) |
| 馬単 | 4.28% (107.07%) |
4.93% (55.02%) |
2.97% (211.68%) |
12.90% (63.87%) |
3.37% (21.12%) |
3.26% (155.92%) |
13.82% (63.50%) |
| 三連複 | 3.29% (128.29%) |
4.93% (192.12%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
12.90% (50.97%) |
3.37% (23.60%) |
1.63% (191.96%) |
9.87% (58.98%) |
| 三連単 | 0.33% (4.31%) |
0.49% (6.45%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.23% (42.26%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
9.87% (67.82%) |
| 総合 | 55.59% (95.26%) |
59.11% (96.88%) |
48.51% (92.08%) |
83.87% (82.49%) |
56.18% (40.70%) |
50.54% (122.24%) |
84.21% (68.60%) |
見え方が違うのは当たり前。しかし、これはなかなか強烈なモデルかも?(笑) 最近は他のアプリを全く利用しないので知識無いけど、新馬戦でここまで当てられれば十分なのかな?
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