2026/09/18

一旦、新馬戦の学習

通常用走破タイム学習がもう一つ進まないので、2004年~2025年の学習CSVデータ使った新馬戦用走破タイム学習を今朝出勤前にスタート10,800秒×10回にして、ここまで3回終わり、最適RMSE 2.0317は

148R 1点 芝(106R) ダート(42R) 8頭以下(25R) 9~12頭(53R) 13頭以上(70R) 多点
単勝 20.27%
(81.76%)
24.53%
(73.21%)
9.52%
(103.33%)
24.00%
(48.40%)
28.30%
(106.04%)
12.86%
(75.29%)
45.95%
(88.36%)
複勝 37.84%
(61.35%)
38.68%
(58.21%)
35.71%
(69.29%)
40.00%
(62.40%)
37.74%
(59.25%)
37.14%
(62.57%)
80.41%
(76.28%)
枠連 6.96%
(81.74%)
7.89%
(106.05%)
5.13%
(34.36%)
--
(--)
3.77%
(66.23%)
8.57%
(84.14%)
14.78%
(42.80%)
馬連 3.38%
(50.27%)
2.83%
(53.02%)
4.76%
(43.33%)
8.00%
(22.80%)
1.89%
(18.49%)
2.86%
(84.14%)
14.19%
(35.32%)
ワイド 9.46%
(67.70%)
10.38%
(82.83%)
7.14%
(29.52%)
20.00%
(46.40%)
9.43%
(108.30%)
5.71%
(44.57%)
28.38%
(67.82%)
馬単 1.35%
(49.12%)
1.89%
(68.58%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
4.00%
(14.40%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
1.43%
(98.71%)
14.19%
(27.04%)
三連複 1.35%
(9.80%)
1.89%
(13.68%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
4.00%
(25.20%)
1.89%
(15.47%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
6.76%
(36.49%)
三連単 0.00%
(0.00%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
6.76%
(36.80%)
総合 40.54%
(49.31%)
42.45%
(55.15%)
35.71%
(34.98%)
40.00%
(31.37%)
39.62%
(46.72%)
41.43%
(56.18%)
81.76%
(43.34%)

これまでは、普通に2.0未満だったが、なかなかそこまで行かない^^; なんでこんなに悪いってくらい酷い感じです。通常用でもそんな感じがしてるけど、なんだろ? 2025年まで増やした学習データは何かAIを悩ませるものがあるのかな? これさ、例えば2004年~2024年の学習CSVデータで学習させた最適RMSE 1.9055だと、

148R 1点 芝(106R) ダート(42R) 8頭以下(25R) 9~12頭(53R) 13頭以上(70R) 多点
単勝 17.57%
(67.97%)
18.87%
(61.98%)
14.29%
(83.10%)
36.00%
(81.60%)
20.75%
(111.89%)
8.57%
(29.86%)
39.86%
(60.63%)
複勝 42.57%
(69.26%)
41.51%
(68.49%)
45.24%
(71.19%)
56.00%
(71.60%)
39.62%
(72.08%)
40.00%
(66.29%)
78.38%
(79.98%)
枠連 4.35%
(25.39%)
3.95%
(20.79%)
5.13%
(34.36%)
--
(--)
3.77%
(15.85%)
4.29%
(29.71%)
17.39%
(100.16%)
馬連 4.05%
(34.86%)
4.72%
(39.43%)
2.38%
(23.33%)
12.00%
(130.80%)
3.77%
(23.77%)
1.43%
(9.00%)
13.51%
(88.02%)
ワイド 9.46%
(50.27%)
12.26%
(66.51%)
2.38%
(9.29%)
28.00%
(80.80%)
9.43%
(56.60%)
2.86%
(34.57%)
29.73%
(87.09%)
馬単 3.38%
(40.54%)
4.72%
(56.60%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
12.00%
(159.20%)
1.89%
(10.19%)
1.43%
(21.14%)
13.51%
(91.59%)
三連複 2.03%
(77.16%)
2.83%
(107.74%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
8.00%
(51.60%)
1.89%
(191.13%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
10.14%
(69.76%)
三連単 0.68%
(21.49%)
0.94%
(30.00%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
4.00%
(127.20%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
10.14%
(66.48%)
総合 43.24%
(49.03%)
42.45%
(57.75%)
45.24%
(27.60%)
56.00%
(100.40%)
39.62%
(60.19%)
41.43%
(23.82%)
78.38%
(74.49%)

やはり、RMSE値だけでは判断出来ない何かがあるのかな^^; 明朝にはある程度終わってるので、そこまでにどの程度のモデルが出るかかなぁ。

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