2026/09/26

昨夜学習させた新馬戦用モデル

昨夜寝る前に3時間×2回の新馬戦用走破タイム学習では2回とも同じRMSE 2.0408で

171R 1点 芝(120R) ダート(51R) 8頭以下(27R) 9~12頭(65R) 13頭以上(79R) 多点
単勝 25.73%
(110.64%)
28.33%
(124.50%)
19.61%
(78.04%)
33.33%
(75.56%)
30.77%
(125.85%)
18.99%
(110.13%)
47.37%
(71.15%)
複勝 55.56%
(106.08%)
55.00%
(102.00%)
56.86%
(115.69%)
62.96%
(102.96%)
58.46%
(100.62%)
50.63%
(111.65%)
81.87%
(87.43%)
枠連 11.76%
(165.37%)
13.48%
(230.11%)
8.51%
(42.77%)
--
(--)
13.85%
(153.54%)
8.86%
(158.35%)
28.68%
(110.32%)
馬連 8.19%
(130.64%)
10.00%
(177.42%)
3.92%
(20.59%)
22.22%
(142.59%)
6.15%
(125.08%)
5.06%
(131.14%)
19.88%
(92.44%)
ワイド 18.71%
(156.14%)
21.67%
(170.75%)
11.76%
(121.76%)
40.74%
(111.85%)
20.00%
(224.62%)
10.13%
(114.94%)
38.60%
(116.47%)
馬単 4.68%
(213.80%)
5.83%
(299.42%)
1.96%
(12.35%)
11.11%
(32.22%)
3.08%
(213.69%)
3.80%
(275.95%)
19.88%
(84.48%)
三連複 5.85%
(121.93%)
5.83%
(93.08%)
5.88%
(189.80%)
11.11%
(223.70%)
6.15%
(65.38%)
3.80%
(133.67%)
11.11%
(63.11%)
三連単 0.58%
(7.54%)
0.83%
(10.75%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
3.70%
(47.78%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
11.11%
(43.13%)
総合 57.89%
(125.50%)
57.50%
(148.36%)
58.82%
(72.92%)
62.96%
(105.24%)
63.08%
(126.10%)
51.90%
(129.48%)
81.87%
(65.15%)

これ、まあ、想定内なんだが、学習データは2004年~2025年に変え、検証は当然のその後の今年初めから先週末、あっ、今回は末じゃないか、火曜日まで代替開催あったんだった^^;

175R 1点 芝(123R) ダート(52R) 8頭以下(28R) 9~12頭(66R) 13頭以上(81R) 多点
単勝 25.14%
(108.11%)
27.64%
(121.46%)
19.23%
(76.54%)
32.14%
(72.86%)
30.30%
(123.94%)
18.52%
(107.41%)
48.00%
(71.89%)
複勝 55.43%
(105.09%)
55.28%
(101.54%)
55.77%
(113.46%)
64.29%
(103.57%)
59.09%
(101.06%)
49.38%
(108.89%)
82.29%
(87.18%)
枠連 11.51%
(161.80%)
13.19%
(225.05%)
8.33%
(41.88%)
--
(--)
13.64%
(151.21%)
8.64%
(154.44%)
28.06%
(107.75%)
馬連 8.00%
(127.66%)
9.76%
(173.09%)
3.85%
(20.19%)
21.43%
(137.50%)
6.06%
(123.18%)
4.94%
(127.90%)
20.00%
(91.37%)
ワイド 18.86%
(154.23%)
21.95%
(168.94%)
11.54%
(119.42%)
39.29%
(107.86%)
21.21%
(225.61%)
9.88%
(112.10%)
38.86%
(114.90%)
馬単 4.57%
(208.91%)
5.69%
(292.11%)
1.92%
(12.12%)
10.71%
(31.07%)
3.03%
(210.45%)
3.70%
(269.14%)
20.00%
(83.90%)
三連複 5.71%
(119.14%)
5.69%
(90.81%)
5.77%
(186.15%)
10.71%
(215.71%)
6.06%
(64.39%)
3.70%
(130.37%)
10.86%
(61.67%)
三連単 0.57%
(7.37%)
0.81%
(10.49%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
3.57%
(46.07%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
0.00%
(0.00%)
10.86%
(42.14%)
総合 57.71%
(123.04%)
57.72%
(145.35%)
57.69%
(71.50%)
64.29%
(102.09%)
63.64%
(124.98%)
50.62%
(126.28%)
82.29%
(64.21%)

それ程変わらないが、話を正確にね(笑) いや、以前2004年~2024年学習させて2025年で検証したら異常に回収率が良かったって事で、更に2026年になると回収率が落ちてたのを踏まえ、では、なるべく直近まで学習させた後が成績良いんならって事で今回やった訳です。まあ、実戦でどうなるかなんだけど^^;

0 件のコメント:

コメントを投稿