以前通常用走破タイム学習では最適RMSE 1.4程度まで、Model Builderに至っては1.4未満も出てたので、出来ればその辺りを目指いしたんだが、学習させている
NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 5000
LearningRate: 0.008
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 120
ではRMSE 1.6016～1.6054です。モデルサイズは120MBとまあ大きい部類。まだ10回のうち半分ですが、1回20分程度掛かるしここは中断してWindows Upateもある事だし、再起動してパラメーターを見直してみます。ああ、一応って検証始めたんだが嫌な予感(笑) そもそもモデルが大きいと遅いし、検証開始時は特にスローなんですが、多点買いで三連単２百万馬券当ててる。RMSE以上になんか滅茶苦茶当ててる感じだ。先日のバグった時みたいにエグイ結果が出そうだ。まあ、確かに狙った学習ではあるが過学習って事なのか、何かリークしてるのか、まあ、結果を待つか。
| 3,151R | 1点 | 芝(1,486R) | ダート(1,545R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(188R) | 9～12頭(720R) | 13頭以上(2,243R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 32.34% (175.07%) |
27.79% (185.02%) |
36.38% (167.83%) |
36.67% (145.00%) |
38.83% (137.82%) |
32.36% (141.36%) |
31.79% (189.01%) |
61.38% (136.94%) |
| 複勝 | 64.90% (132.59%) |
60.70% (133.13%) |
68.48% (133.77%) |
70.83% (110.75%) |
65.96% (104.73%) |
70.83% (127.76%) |
62.91% (136.47%) |
91.08% (126.12%) |
| 枠連 | 23.37% (255.22%) |
19.58% (238.20%) |
26.23% (268.36%) |
28.28% (274.04%) |
-- (--) |
23.61% (205.25%) |
21.89% (256.01%) |
39.80% (182.09%) |
| 馬連 | 18.85% (361.52%) |
15.88% (307.00%) |
21.55% (414.48%) |
20.83% (354.83%) |
20.74% (127.98%) |
22.08% (258.71%) |
17.65% (414.10%) |
34.21% (281.49%) |
| ワイド | 35.39% (259.36%) |
31.70% (237.21%) |
38.96% (283.07%) |
35.00% (228.42%) |
40.43% (105.64%) |
40.83% (218.93%) |
33.21% (285.23%) |
57.03% (245.03%) |
| 馬単 | 12.28% (434.78%) |
9.42% (389.99%) |
14.95% (487.49%) |
13.33% (310.75%) |
14.36% (163.19%) |
13.06% (258.21%) |
11.86% (514.22%) |
34.21% (273.98%) |
| 三連複 | 12.60% (726.10%) |
10.70% (641.74%) |
14.30% (839.50%) |
14.17% (310.67%) |
15.96% (190.05%) |
14.86% (321.61%) |
11.59% (900.86%) |
25.77% (542.78%) |
| 三連単 | 4.67% (1,070.35%) |
3.50% (1,019.75%) |
5.70% (1,141.87%) |
5.83% (776.17%) |
4.26% (289.36%) |
6.25% (562.17%) |
4.19% (1,298.94%) |
25.77% (561.52%) |
| 総合 | 66.30% (429.09%) |
61.84% (397.15%) |
70.23% (468.11%) |
70.83% (314.72%) |
69.68% (159.83%) |
71.11% (261.75%) |
64.47% (499.36%) |
91.43% (414.66%) |
う～ん、やはりリークしてるんだろか? そんな手違いした覚えないんだけどなぁ^^; でも、明らかに2025年は飛びぬけた回収率。的中率的にはまあ良い事は良いが、リークしてる感じとまでは行かないと思うけど。
| 2,222R | 1点 | 芝(1,051R) | ダート(1,091R) | 障害(80R) | 8頭以下(106R) | 9～12頭(538R) | 13頭以上(1,578R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 17.24% (68.06%) |
14.18% (64.76%) |
19.71% (70.36%) |
23.75% (80.00%) |
22.64% (54.62%) |
19.89% (65.09%) |
15.97% (69.97%) |
43.97% (80.47%) |
| 複勝 | 46.08% (85.18%) |
40.25% (80.23%) |
50.60% (89.58%) |
61.25% (90.38%) |
54.72% (88.96%) |
50.00% (79.46%) |
44.17% (86.88%) |
82.00% (82.67%) |
| 枠連 | 8.84% (71.26%) |
7.15% (70.29%) |
9.78% (67.25%) |
16.22% (139.86%) |
-- (--) |
10.59% (75.20%) |
7.73% (65.86%) |
22.11% (75.74%) |
| 馬連 | 5.36% (56.69%) |
4.47% (55.08%) |
5.96% (55.70%) |
8.75% (91.37%) |
10.38% (34.34%) |
7.25% (67.42%) |
4.37% (54.54%) |
14.76% (63.27%) |
| ワイド | 16.07% (78.52%) |
13.51% (72.80%) |
17.87% (80.03%) |
25.00% (133.13%) |
28.30% (64.34%) |
21.56% (76.69%) |
13.37% (80.10%) |
35.37% (78.41%) |
| 馬単 | 2.66% (45.85%) |
1.71% (34.72%) |
3.30% (50.23%) |
6.25% (132.25%) |
5.66% (44.91%) |
3.72% (61.34%) |
2.09% (40.63%) |
14.76% (60.65%) |
| 三連複 | 3.20% (79.00%) |
2.76% (86.96%) |
3.48% (68.73%) |
5.00% (114.50%) |
8.49% (73.21%) |
4.83% (63.25%) |
2.28% (84.76%) |
10.80% (88.16%) |
| 三連単 | 0.36% (28.18%) |
0.10% (7.98%) |
0.55% (29.56%) |
1.25% (274.75%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.37% (50.45%) |
0.38% (22.48%) |
10.80% (112.22%) |
| 総合 | 47.39% (64.01%) |
41.58% (58.91%) |
51.79% (63.91%) |
63.75% (131.96%) |
61.32% (51.48%) |
50.93% (67.36%) |
45.25% (63.15%) |
82.54% (93.04%) |
ここまで同じモデルで違うとねぇ。ただね、Geminiとかに質問しても、確かに学習した年に近い程精度が良い事がって話なんだよ。だとすれば、これ、本当に直前までを学習させて実戦に行けば期待出来るのかな?
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