継続は力なりってひたすら続けてます。イテレーション数3,000、葉255、率0.015でNDCG@1=0.7798 NDCG@3=0.7862のモデルは
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 26.86% (78.15%) |
26.52% (77.47%) |
27.10% (77.83%) |
28.33% (92.08%) |
37.90% (88.63%) |
27.94% (78.88%) |
25.50% (76.96%) |
57.02% (76.73%) |
| 複勝 | 58.81% (84.73%) |
58.38% (83.68%) |
58.38% (84.79%) |
70.83% (98.75%) |
70.32% (88.31%) |
63.41% (84.14%) |
56.24% (84.61%) |
89.64% (82.82%) |
| 枠連 | 16.16% (86.69%) |
15.83% (90.48%) |
15.57% (80.98%) |
30.30% (123.64%) |
-- (--) |
17.92% (77.50%) |
14.54% (84.26%) |
30.92% (80.31%) |
| 馬連 | 12.50% (84.08%) |
12.37% (85.44%) |
11.91% (80.52%) |
22.50% (113.92%) |
20.09% (59.59%) |
15.08% (76.58%) |
10.96% (88.80%) |
25.47% (73.73%) |
| ワイド | 27.24% (86.20%) |
27.53% (83.01%) |
26.25% (88.95%) |
36.67% (93.42%) |
46.58% (77.99%) |
32.88% (83.20%) |
23.61% (87.94%) |
48.83% (79.51%) |
| 馬単 | 6.74% (76.75%) |
6.28% (68.85%) |
6.93% (83.40%) |
10.83% (96.83%) |
10.05% (61.37%) |
7.66% (68.41%) |
6.14% (80.92%) |
25.47% (71.05%) |
| 三連複 | 6.05% (71.01%) |
6.99% (66.61%) |
5.10% (76.10%) |
5.83% (63.08%) |
18.72% (76.53%) |
7.17% (59.09%) |
4.53% (74.48%) |
16.38% (69.47%) |
| 三連単 | 1.22% (45.12%) |
1.42% (55.67%) |
0.97% (34.76%) |
1.67% (38.67%) |
1.83% (13.93%) |
1.98% (45.28%) |
0.91% (47.88%) |
16.38% (64.12%) |
| 総合 | 60.00% (76.45%) |
59.56% (76.10%) |
59.60% (75.89%) |
71.67% (89.30%) |
73.97% (66.62%) |
63.91% (71.63%) |
57.44% (78.23%) |
89.99% (69.74%) |
これが限界かは不明だけど、もう少し精度上げたい。Copilotはもう限界で、ギブアップさせた。イテレーション数3,000、葉255、率0.012でNDCG@1=0.7810 NDCG@3=0.7861のモデルは
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.09% (81.61%) |
26.64% (78.90%) |
27.28% (83.09%) |
30.83% (99.50%) |
36.07% (86.62%) |
27.81% (79.67%) |
26.04% (81.81%) |
56.82% (76.39%) |
| 複勝 | 58.29% (84.26%) |
57.73% (82.79%) |
58.02% (84.81%) |
70.00% (97.42%) |
72.15% (90.73%) |
62.42% (84.18%) |
55.67% (83.70%) |
89.73% (83.36%) |
| 枠連 | 16.06% (87.13%) |
16.04% (93.80%) |
15.37% (79.36%) |
27.27% (115.45%) |
-- (--) |
18.05% (81.57%) |
14.38% (83.45%) |
31.12% (79.57%) |
| 馬連 | 12.39% (80.45%) |
12.31% (83.55%) |
11.79% (75.02%) |
21.67% (111.17%) |
21.92% (68.04%) |
14.96% (79.48%) |
10.67% (81.89%) |
25.56% (72.29%) |
| ワイド | 26.74% (86.70%) |
27.18% (86.43%) |
25.52% (85.54%) |
37.50% (106.42%) |
49.77% (81.64%) |
32.01% (81.63%) |
22.91% (88.85%) |
49.06% (78.84%) |
| 馬単 | 7.09% (81.46%) |
7.10% (86.39%) |
6.74% (74.71%) |
11.67% (104.75%) |
12.33% (77.53%) |
8.03% (73.15%) |
6.30% (84.59%) |
25.56% (68.90%) |
| 三連複 | 5.90% (61.94%) |
7.05% (60.56%) |
4.74% (64.39%) |
5.83% (47.83%) |
18.72% (82.01%) |
7.42% (60.95%) |
4.24% (60.46%) |
16.41% (69.09%) |
| 三連単 | 1.22% (54.29%) |
1.60% (67.51%) |
0.85% (40.59%) |
0.83% (56.08%) |
2.74% (112.74%) |
1.73% (36.30%) |
0.91% (55.01%) |
16.41% (64.06%) |
| 総合 | 59.54% (77.09%) |
58.85% (79.70%) |
59.36% (73.41%) |
71.67% (91.81%) |
75.34% (85.62%) |
63.04% (72.12%) |
56.94% (77.47%) |
90.01% (69.25%) |
少し精度が上がった。しかし、何が良いって、まあ、相対タイムよりは確実に精度は上で、これ、学習時間が非常に短い。AutoMLでは何時間も学習させてたけど、イテレーション数10,000とかでも30分掛からない。ただ、AutoMLではモニター機能があるので学習中のログが表示出来るけど、ランキング学習ではひたすら待つ(笑)
学習時のオプションを追加してイテレーション5,000、葉255、率0.015でNDCG@1=0.7824 NDCG@3=0.7868のモデルは残念ながらOOM(Out of Memory)。イテレーション数3,500、葉175、率0.01でNDCG@1=0.7812 NDCG@3=0.7862のモデルは
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 26.92% (78.56%) |
26.52% (78.58%) |
27.16% (77.32%) |
29.17% (95.17%) |
37.90% (92.47%) |
28.31% (82.24%) |
25.46% (76.08%) |
56.70% (77.24%) |
| 複勝 | 58.35% (83.43%) |
58.67% (83.61%) |
57.53% (82.72%) |
65.00% (90.58%) |
74.89% (95.07%) |
63.29% (83.98%) |
55.21% (82.19%) |
89.46% (83.46%) |
| 枠連 | 16.06% (85.70%) |
16.18% (92.04%) |
15.25% (78.93%) |
27.27% (103.03%) |
-- (--) |
17.55% (76.76%) |
14.54% (83.24%) |
30.86% (77.74%) |
| 馬連 | 12.36% (74.97%) |
12.43% (76.20%) |
11.66% (72.45%) |
20.83% (92.00%) |
22.83% (71.28%) |
14.59% (72.45%) |
10.67% (76.14%) |
25.15% (71.15%) |
| ワイド | 27.06% (85.33%) |
28.24% (83.91%) |
25.21% (86.53%) |
35.83% (88.83%) |
50.68% (85.02%) |
32.14% (82.97%) |
23.24% (86.14%) |
49.00% (79.25%) |
| 馬単 | 6.69% (70.54%) |
6.28% (63.92%) |
6.80% (77.03%) |
10.83% (74.67%) |
11.87% (79.13%) |
7.29% (59.69%) |
6.02% (73.38%) |
25.15% (69.00%) |
| 三連複 | 5.93% (67.47%) |
6.81% (63.17%) |
4.92% (71.86%) |
7.50% (67.75%) |
15.98% (61.92%) |
8.41% (78.69%) |
4.20% (64.23%) |
16.18% (66.09%) |
| 三連単 | 1.39% (65.56%) |
1.66% (56.86%) |
1.09% (74.39%) |
1.67% (67.08%) |
3.20% (124.47%) |
1.85% (36.46%) |
1.07% (69.95%) |
16.18% (59.89%) |
| 総合 | 59.54% (76.32%) |
59.86% (74.42%) |
58.75% (77.65%) |
65.83% (84.48%) |
78.54% (87.05%) |
63.78% (71.65%) |
56.41% (76.42%) |
89.81% (66.87%) |
これじゃ精度が落ちたorz でNモデルはOOM。ちょっとオプション増やしてイテレーション数3.500、葉255、率0.01、分割数111、葉の最小50だとNDCG@1=0.7815 NDCG@3=0.7858のモデルは
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.06% (80.47%) |
27.12% (79.40%) |
26.85% (80.06%) |
29.17% (101.00%) |
40.18% (98.81%) |
27.19% (75.19%) |
25.83% (80.57%) |
56.85% (77.53%) |
| 複勝 | 58.73% (84.67%) |
58.61% (84.06%) |
58.14% (84.49%) |
68.33% (95.83%) |
73.97% (94.38%) |
62.30% (82.05%) |
56.16% (84.67%) |
89.52% (83.36%) |
| 枠連 | 15.70% (85.17%) |
16.11% (92.68%) |
14.68% (76.87%) |
26.26% (110.30%) |
-- (--) |
17.55% (78.54%) |
14.09% (81.98%) |
31.25% (79.81%) |
| 馬連 | 12.19% (81.42%) |
12.73% (87.41%) |
11.12% (73.85%) |
19.17% (101.00%) |
21.92% (70.50%) |
14.96% (81.52%) |
10.38% (82.37%) |
25.38% (78.77%) |
| ワイド | 27.15% (88.37%) |
28.54% (89.37%) |
25.27% (87.30%) |
33.33% (89.08%) |
48.40% (81.37%) |
33.00% (87.18%) |
23.28% (89.40%) |
49.09% (80.89%) |
| 馬単 | 6.66% (76.91%) |
6.87% (81.64%) |
6.32% (72.32%) |
8.33% (73.17%) |
12.33% (82.88%) |
7.42% (67.03%) |
5.89% (79.66%) |
25.38% (75.77%) |
| 三連複 | 5.99% (73.21%) |
6.99% (61.69%) |
4.92% (85.65%) |
6.67% (64.75%) |
17.35% (72.05%) |
8.41% (76.18%) |
4.16% (72.32%) |
16.64% (73.68%) |
| 三連単 | 1.30% (49.74%) |
1.60% (67.31%) |
1.09% (35.34%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.20% (119.09%) |
1.48% (27.54%) |
1.07% (50.88%) |
16.64% (67.69%) |
| 総合 | 59.88% (77.39%) |
59.68% (80.19%) |
59.48% (74.47%) |
68.33% (78.70%) |
77.17% (88.44%) |
62.79% (71.91%) |
57.35% (77.73%) |
89.87% (72.89%) |
微妙な変化かなぁ。Geminiの助言で評価部分の変更してみた。イテレーション数3.500、葉255、率0.01、分割数127、葉の最小50だとNDCG@1=0.7777 NDCG@3=0.7836と評価自体も落ちてモデルは
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.35% (80.41%) |
26.94% (78.50%) |
27.76% (81.54%) |
27.50% (91.75%) |
33.79% (75.11%) |
29.17% (81.42%) |
26.16% (80.55%) |
57.89% (76.61%) |
| 複勝 | 58.64% (83.74%) |
58.44% (83.41%) |
58.38% (83.58%) |
65.00% (90.42%) |
69.41% (86.03%) |
63.78% (83.50%) |
55.95% (83.61%) |
89.46% (82.18%) |
| 枠連 | 16.22% (84.51%) |
16.32% (89.38%) |
15.69% (79.20%) |
23.23% (99.60%) |
-- (--) |
17.18% (73.97%) |
14.87% (82.66%) |
31.93% (80.30%) |
| 馬連 | 12.42% (79.36%) |
12.37% (76.60%) |
12.03% (81.54%) |
18.33% (88.17%) |
22.37% (61.00%) |
14.34% (74.59%) |
10.88% (82.60%) |
25.96% (73.46%) |
| ワイド | 27.26% (88.33%) |
27.83% (88.06%) |
26.37% (89.24%) |
31.67% (79.67%) |
47.95% (78.54%) |
32.51% (83.82%) |
23.65% (90.72%) |
49.35% (78.84%) |
| 馬単 | 6.40% (70.44%) |
6.16% (66.72%) |
6.62% (73.59%) |
6.67% (79.50%) |
11.42% (58.49%) |
6.80% (68.07%) |
5.81% (72.30%) |
25.96% (70.83%) |
| 三連複 | 6.19% (72.52%) |
6.63% (58.27%) |
5.59% (85.94%) |
8.33% (88.92%) |
18.72% (66.30%) |
7.91% (69.07%) |
4.49% (74.23%) |
17.02% (70.09%) |
| 三連単 | 1.27% (34.32%) |
1.36% (35.89%) |
1.28% (35.21%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.65% (41.78%) |
1.73% (39.21%) |
0.91% (32.01%) |
17.02% (64.16%) |
| 総合 | 59.91% (74.06%) |
59.80% (71.74%) |
59.54% (76.22%) |
66.67% (76.75%) |
74.89% (66.75%) |
64.40% (71.71%) |
57.07% (74.84%) |
89.75% (69.68%) |
当然ながら下げてる感じだけど、微妙な変化で単勝27.35%や枠連、馬連、ワイド、三連複は微増だけど回収率が下がってる。更に評価部を変えてみた所、NDCG@1=0.7789 NDCG@3=0.7843となり、
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.81% (80.32%) |
27.53% (80.14%) |
27.89% (79.21%) |
30.83% (98.17%) |
37.44% (87.21%) |
29.17% (81.17%) |
26.49% (79.42%) |
57.48% (75.65%) |
| 複勝 | 59.83% (85.39%) |
59.92% (85.53%) |
59.30% (84.90%) |
65.83% (90.17%) |
73.06% (92.24%) |
64.89% (85.77%) |
56.94% (84.65%) |
89.81% (82.87%) |
| 枠連 | 16.71% (89.15%) |
16.89% (97.10%) |
15.95% (80.53%) |
26.26% (112.93%) |
-- (--) |
18.05% (82.99%) |
15.20% (85.54%) |
31.28% (78.30%) |
| 馬連 | 13.00% (85.52%) |
13.32% (89.44%) |
12.15% (80.61%) |
20.00% (97.67%) |
24.20% (70.27%) |
15.08% (82.73%) |
11.29% (87.82%) |
25.59% (71.88%) |
| ワイド | 27.96% (92.89%) |
28.60% (93.57%) |
26.91% (91.95%) |
33.33% (96.17%) |
50.23% (83.06%) |
32.26% (84.87%) |
24.52% (96.45%) |
49.67% (79.13%) |
| 馬単 | 7.03% (79.00%) |
6.75% (77.00%) |
7.11% (78.63%) |
10.00% (112.33%) |
13.24% (76.26%) |
7.54% (82.66%) |
6.30% (78.03%) |
25.59% (68.44%) |
| 三連複 | 6.19% (75.31%) |
7.22% (62.40%) |
5.10% (90.72%) |
6.67% (45.75%) |
19.63% (83.52%) |
7.66% (64.50%) |
4.49% (78.18%) |
16.73% (76.21%) |
| 三連単 | 1.27% (39.51%) |
1.66% (51.78%) |
0.97% (29.81%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
2.28% (21.19%) |
1.85% (45.90%) |
0.99% (39.04%) |
16.73% (71.93%) |
| 総合 | 61.13% (78.24%) |
61.34% (79.25%) |
60.51% (77.03%) |
66.67% (80.95%) |
77.63% (73.39%) |
65.64% (76.32%) |
58.14% (78.64%) |
90.10% (73.53%) |
複勝が59.83は目標の6割にあと少し!評価部のボーダー(400)を変えてNDCG@1=0.7789 NDCG@3=0.7855となると、
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.35% (79.44%) |
27.18% (79.07%) |
27.46% (78.23%) |
28.33% (101.17%) |
36.07% (81.42%) |
28.68% (81.30%) |
26.12% (78.64%) |
57.08% (74.68%) |
| 複勝 | 59.42% (85.35%) |
59.38% (84.72%) |
58.93% (85.29%) |
66.67% (95.00%) |
73.06% (91.96%) |
63.78% (84.38%) |
56.74% (85.08%) |
89.49% (82.47%) |
| 枠連 | 16.06% (86.02%) |
15.97% (91.75%) |
15.63% (80.02%) |
24.24% (99.80%) |
-- (--) |
17.06% (76.74%) |
14.71% (83.65%) |
30.92% (75.61%) |
| 馬連 | 12.45% (80.53%) |
12.37% (81.22%) |
11.97% (78.70%) |
20.00% (95.92%) |
21.92% (62.10%) |
14.46% (75.64%) |
10.92% (83.82%) |
25.41% (68.87%) |
| ワイド | 26.98% (87.83%) |
27.59% (89.10%) |
26.00% (87.31%) |
31.67% (76.92%) |
46.12% (75.57%) |
31.40% (79.21%) |
23.77% (91.80%) |
49.61% (77.85%) |
| 馬単 | 7.06% (80.30%) |
7.05% (81.92%) |
6.87% (77.75%) |
10.00% (92.50%) |
11.87% (60.91%) |
8.03% (81.27%) |
6.30% (81.73%) |
25.41% (65.45%) |
| 三連複 | 6.05% (60.61%) |
7.10% (61.34%) |
4.86% (58.39%) |
7.50% (80.92%) |
16.89% (70.46%) |
7.54% (59.32%) |
4.57% (60.16%) |
16.67% (72.16%) |
| 三連単 | 1.36% (38.18%) |
1.66% (42.77%) |
1.09% (32.16%) |
0.83% (56.08%) |
4.11% (45.84%) |
1.48% (26.95%) |
1.07% (41.23%) |
16.67% (67.43%) |
| 総合 | 60.46% (74.63%) |
60.45% (76.16%) |
59.96% (72.19%) |
67.50% (87.01%) |
77.17% (69.75%) |
64.28% (70.60%) |
57.68% (75.76%) |
89.78% (70.11%) |
これでは逆効果なのでボーダー(600)変えてNDCG@1=0.7774 NDCG@3=0.7819はもっとダメかな?
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.93% (81.85%) |
27.47% (80.65%) |
28.07% (82.16%) |
32.50% (94.58%) |
38.36% (85.25%) |
30.78% (88.32%) |
26.04% (79.39%) |
57.74% (76.76%) |
| 複勝 | 59.28% (84.42%) |
58.73% (83.60%) |
59.05% (84.44%) |
70.00% (95.58%) |
70.78% (86.58%) |
65.51% (86.42%) |
56.16% (83.56%) |
89.64% (83.32%) |
| 枠連 | 16.16% (82.14%) |
16.47% (90.69%) |
15.31% (72.59%) |
25.25% (112.22%) |
-- (--) |
17.55% (75.33%) |
14.67% (79.20%) |
31.31% (77.05%) |
| 馬連 | 12.33% (78.48%) |
12.67% (81.98%) |
11.42% (72.29%) |
20.00% (114.17%) |
23.29% (61.64%) |
14.59% (79.01%) |
10.59% (79.83%) |
25.85% (73.76%) |
| ワイド | 27.09% (84.34%) |
28.06% (84.19%) |
25.64% (84.26%) |
33.33% (87.50%) |
49.32% (80.50%) |
32.14% (83.00%) |
23.40% (85.13%) |
49.93% (80.21%) |
| 馬単 | 6.86% (73.91%) |
6.69% (70.11%) |
6.80% (74.79%) |
10.00% (115.33%) |
14.16% (66.58%) |
7.79% (82.32%) |
5.89% (71.76%) |
25.85% (71.22%) |
| 三連複 | 6.08% (66.49%) |
6.81% (56.56%) |
5.10% (74.69%) |
9.17% (93.83%) |
19.18% (71.74%) |
7.79% (62.92%) |
4.33% (67.21%) |
16.90% (73.93%) |
| 三連単 | 1.51% (36.87%) |
1.78% (41.30%) |
1.22% (31.75%) |
1.67% (44.75%) |
5.02% (56.76%) |
2.10% (49.72%) |
0.99% (30.79%) |
16.90% (69.50%) |
| 総合 | 60.43% (73.44%) |
60.09% (73.27%) |
60.09% (72.12%) |
70.00% (94.36%) |
74.89% (72.72%) |
66.25% (75.88%) |
57.19% (72.11%) |
89.90% (72.70%) |
それでも検証的にはそんなに悪くなった訳じゃない。ボーダー(550)にするとNDCG@1=0.7782 NDCG@3=0.7829で
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 27.61% (78.89%) |
27.00% (78.46%) |
27.95% (78.27%) |
31.67% (93.42%) |
36.99% (85.53%) |
28.80% (78.49%) |
26.37% (78.42%) |
57.92% (77.30%) |
| 複勝 | 58.70% (83.50%) |
58.20% (82.68%) |
58.75% (84.08%) |
65.00% (87.08%) |
72.60% (90.37%) |
63.29% (82.03%) |
55.91% (83.37%) |
89.55% (82.77%) |
| 枠連 | 15.87% (82.98%) |
16.32% (92.95%) |
14.99% (72.69%) |
23.23% (104.85%) |
-- (--) |
17.18% (78.76%) |
14.42% (79.12%) |
31.18% (77.01%) |
| 馬連 | 12.27% (80.76%) |
12.67% (84.65%) |
11.42% (75.29%) |
18.33% (101.08%) |
21.92% (60.18%) |
14.34% (79.04%) |
10.71% (83.19%) |
25.82% (73.47%) |
| ワイド | 27.38% (89.91%) |
28.48% (94.23%) |
25.88% (85.77%) |
32.50% (85.92%) |
46.58% (74.47%) |
33.00% (87.53%) |
23.77% (92.10%) |
49.67% (79.86%) |
| 馬単 | 6.71% (76.38%) |
6.69% (82.20%) |
6.50% (67.27%) |
10.00% (119.42%) |
10.50% (51.42%) |
7.79% (80.57%) |
6.02% (77.24%) |
25.82% (71.63%) |
| 三連複 | 6.37% (68.93%) |
7.10% (66.18%) |
5.53% (72.48%) |
7.50% (59.17%) |
18.26% (65.66%) |
7.91% (66.98%) |
4.78% (69.88%) |
17.05% (73.10%) |
| 三連単 | 1.36% (44.88%) |
1.54% (52.05%) |
1.22% (39.62%) |
0.83% (16.00%) |
3.20% (39.45%) |
1.85% (41.97%) |
1.03% (46.34%) |
17.05% (68.05%) |
| 総合 | 59.80% (75.68%) |
59.50% (78.88%) |
59.72% (71.93%) |
65.00% (82.89%) |
76.71% (66.73%) |
63.91% (74.42%) |
56.90% (76.21%) |
89.84% (71.92%) |
微妙だ。
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