何度も試し、何度も特徴量追加して、でも、若干微妙なサイズ、いや、以前の回帰モデルの頃には100MBとかでも行けたけど、ランキングでは違うっポイけど、ここまでで最高なモデルはNDCG@1=0.7833 NDCG@3=0.7878で27.6MBの検証すると
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 25.88% (83.46%) |
25.16% (86.02%) |
26.37% (81.85%) |
29.17% (69.42%) |
31.96% (106.94%) |
28.18% (81.90%) |
24.56% (81.85%) |
56.47% (79.20%) |
| 複勝 | 57.22% (85.87%) |
56.36% (86.09%) |
57.35% (85.32%) |
67.50% (90.42%) |
70.78% (100.64%) |
60.69% (82.72%) |
54.84% (85.59%) |
88.83% (83.04%) |
| 枠連 | 15.28% (87.86%) |
13.84% (87.69%) |
16.26% (87.95%) |
20.20% (88.79%) |
-- (--) |
16.44% (85.81%) |
13.93% (82.97%) |
30.56% (80.29%) |
| 馬連 | 11.52% (76.35%) |
10.60% (73.23%) |
11.85% (77.19%) |
20.00% (108.75%) |
21.00% (70.14%) |
14.09% (85.90%) |
9.81% (73.73%) |
24.23% (73.16%) |
| ワイド | 26.08% (89.79%) |
25.99% (85.10%) |
25.58% (94.72%) |
34.17% (88.08%) |
48.40% (105.80%) |
30.66% (82.50%) |
22.54% (90.77%) |
47.21% (80.20%) |
| 馬単 | 6.60% (80.97%) |
5.57% (71.91%) |
7.41% (89.34%) |
10.00% (93.75%) |
10.96% (62.24%) |
7.54% (85.50%) |
5.89% (81.15%) |
24.23% (71.07%) |
| 三連複 | 5.70% (70.45%) |
6.10% (61.61%) |
5.22% (79.38%) |
6.67% (72.33%) |
14.16% (73.24%) |
8.41% (71.45%) |
4.04% (69.86%) |
16.32% (76.72%) |
| 三連単 | 1.16% (43.68%) |
0.83% (33.93%) |
1.46% (49.79%) |
1.67% (96.92%) |
0.91% (12.83%) |
1.85% (56.51%) |
0.95% (42.18%) |
16.32% (72.25%) |
| 総合 | 58.67% (77.16%) |
57.79% (72.89%) |
58.87% (80.65%) |
68.33% (88.55%) |
76.26% (75.98%) |
61.31% (79.04%) |
56.20% (76.01%) |
89.18% (74.53%) |
それでもまだ精度が足りないorz これ、ここから更に伸ばすのは辛いのかな? これまでで、指数的には最高でも検証は最高ではないんだよね。
追記 2026.6.21 12:20
サッカー始まる前にNDCG@1=0.7841 NDCG@3=0.7875が出た。これ、イテレーション数3,500、葉255、率0.01、分割数63、葉の最小50、ボーダー300、乗数1.0でしたが、
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 25.35% (80.52%) |
24.75% (84.26%) |
25.88% (77.83%) |
26.67% (64.67%) |
32.88% (106.89%) |
26.08% (73.36%) |
24.43% (80.52%) |
55.75% (77.58%) |
| 複勝 | 57.25% (85.37%) |
56.07% (83.88%) |
58.08% (87.05%) |
62.50% (83.08%) |
70.78% (98.17%) |
59.33% (80.02%) |
55.34% (85.99%) |
88.77% (83.08%) |
| 枠連 | 15.28% (88.38%) |
14.48% (97.87%) |
15.44% (79.71%) |
24.24% (91.21%) |
-- (--) |
16.19% (81.64%) |
14.01% (85.02%) |
30.24% (78.75%) |
| 馬連 | 11.29% (79.66%) |
10.78% (81.30%) |
11.12% (76.52%) |
20.83% (99.67%) |
21.92% (73.65%) |
13.60% (80.37%) |
9.56% (79.96%) |
23.85% (70.98%) |
| ワイド | 25.70% (89.66%) |
25.99% (85.53%) |
24.85% (94.61%) |
33.33% (79.92%) |
48.86% (99.36%) |
29.30% (79.84%) |
22.41% (92.06%) |
47.24% (78.57%) |
| 馬単 | 6.11% (75.02%) |
5.39% (72.73%) |
6.50% (77.36%) |
10.83% (75.08%) |
10.50% (65.62%) |
6.92% (79.79%) |
5.44% (74.27%) |
23.85% (68.41%) |
| 三連複 | 5.47% (61.56%) |
5.92% (60.57%) |
5.16% (65.67%) |
3.33% (19.08%) |
12.79% (46.48%) |
7.66% (71.67%) |
4.08% (59.55%) |
16.32% (77.36%) |
| 三連単 | 1.07% (55.08%) |
0.83% (32.61%) |
1.28% (80.70%) |
1.67% (19.92%) |
0.91% (11.14%) |
1.73% (53.04%) |
0.87% (59.72%) |
16.32% (72.58%) |
| 総合 | 58.64% (76.75%) |
57.55% (74.36%) |
59.42% (79.93%) |
63.33% (66.03%) |
75.80% (71.62%) |
59.95% (74.97%) |
56.65% (77.14%) |
89.12% (74.01%) |
これでも少し的中率が低い。
追記 2026.6.21 17:13
ちょっと前に終わったモデルはNDCG@1=0.7824 NDCG@3=0.7877なんだが、そもそも、このNDCGなんだけど、これ、@5と@10まで表示させてます。
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 25.38% (80.10%) |
24.87% (82.92%) |
25.64% (77.95%) |
29.17% (69.83%) |
31.96% (97.63%) |
27.32% (77.06%) |
24.15% (79.53%) |
55.46% (77.49%) |
| 複勝 | 57.31% (85.87%) |
56.60% (85.66%) |
57.90% (86.61%) |
59.17% (78.75%) |
70.78% (100.23%) |
59.09% (80.36%) |
55.50% (86.42%) |
88.63% (82.76%) |
| 枠連 | 15.06% (89.09%) |
14.55% (100.43%) |
15.18% (79.39%) |
20.20% (81.92%) |
-- (--) |
16.32% (87.34%) |
13.68% (84.02%) |
29.66% (77.15%) |
| 馬連 | 11.29% (81.84%) |
10.78% (81.82%) |
11.24% (80.72%) |
19.17% (97.42%) |
20.55% (68.49%) |
13.72% (81.17%) |
9.64% (83.26%) |
23.68% (72.60%) |
| ワイド | 25.82% (90.01%) |
25.70% (84.61%) |
25.70% (97.20%) |
29.17% (67.33%) |
45.21% (94.47%) |
29.79% (79.48%) |
22.74% (93.11%) |
46.57% (79.01%) |
| 馬単 | 6.14% (75.80%) |
5.51% (72.76%) |
6.44% (77.36%) |
10.83% (97.00%) |
10.96% (64.84%) |
7.17% (83.55%) |
5.36% (74.20%) |
23.68% (69.46%) |
| 三連複 | 5.70% (77.81%) |
5.98% (53.35%) |
5.41% (105.26%) |
5.83% (45.75%) |
13.24% (65.53%) |
8.03% (71.26%) |
4.24% (81.10%) |
16.09% (73.01%) |
| 三連単 | 1.07% (70.74%) |
0.83% (47.82%) |
1.28% (97.96%) |
1.67% (19.92%) |
0.91% (15.57%) |
1.61% (83.11%) |
0.91% (71.59%) |
16.09% (68.95%) |
| 総合 | 58.58% (81.30%) |
57.84% (75.66%) |
59.30% (87.85%) |
59.17% (69.47%) |
74.89% (72.39%) |
59.95% (80.42%) |
56.65% (81.65%) |
88.89% (72.00%) |
まだまだなのは変わらないけど、微妙な精度アップ。まあ、基本的に@3までが馬券に絡む精度指数なので気にしてます。今回@1が下がったものの、@3がアップ。なので多分トータルでの回収率が上がった要因なんだと思う。にしても、こりゃ難解だわ^^;
追記 2026.6.21 17:47
ちょっと検証中ですが、先程出たモデルはNDCG@1=0.7845 NDCG@3=0.7879で、更にNDCG@5=0.8019 NDCG@10=0.8556となんか期待しちゃう感じなんですが、
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 25.18% (78.46%) |
24.22% (77.94%) |
26.00% (79.99%) |
27.50% (64.67%) |
32.42% (100.18%) |
26.33% (76.91%) |
24.15% (77.01%) |
55.77% (78.10%) |
| 複勝 | 56.93% (85.08%) |
55.95% (84.09%) |
57.59% (86.35%) |
61.67% (81.67%) |
69.86% (96.76%) |
59.21% (81.26%) |
55.01% (85.30%) |
88.91% (82.79%) |
| 枠連 | 15.15% (88.78%) |
13.98% (91.29%) |
15.88% (87.31%) |
20.20% (76.46%) |
-- (--) |
15.95% (76.21%) |
13.93% (87.34%) |
30.21% (79.17%) |
| 馬連 | 11.32% (77.55%) |
10.89% (78.97%) |
11.18% (74.94%) |
19.17% (93.50%) |
21.46% (70.27%) |
13.47% (73.46%) |
9.68% (79.58%) |
23.85% (71.92%) |
| ワイド | 25.82% (88.82%) |
26.23% (86.70%) |
24.91% (91.84%) |
32.50% (77.25%) |
50.23% (106.26%) |
30.04% (82.60%) |
22.21% (89.32%) |
46.63% (77.67%) |
| 馬単 | 6.11% (71.90%) |
5.39% (63.29%) |
6.50% (79.06%) |
10.83% (94.83%) |
11.42% (69.95%) |
6.67% (61.92%) |
5.44% (75.40%) |
23.85% (69.30%) |
| 三連複 | 5.62% (66.65%) |
6.28% (66.39%) |
4.92% (69.50%) |
5.83% (31.08%) |
15.98% (83.47%) |
7.66% (69.18%) |
4.00% (64.28%) |
15.95% (73.92%) |
| 三連単 | 1.04% (42.94%) |
0.95% (20.91%) |
1.09% (67.22%) |
1.67% (19.92%) |
2.28% (29.36%) |
1.24% (21.29%) |
0.87% (51.38%) |
15.95% (68.21%) |
| 総合 | 58.29% (74.83%) |
57.49% (70.77%) |
58.81% (79.48%) |
62.50% (67.22%) |
76.26% (79.47%) |
59.95% (67.85%) |
56.12% (76.20%) |
89.23% (71.71%) |
あららっ^^; なんか裏切られた感じだ(笑)
追記 2026.6.22 21:40
イテレーション数3,500、葉255、率0.015、分割数127、葉の最小50、ボーダー0、乗数1.0で学習させてNDCG@1=0.7850 NDCG@3=0.7889でしたが、
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 25.21% (81.48%) |
24.57% (85.45%) |
25.64% (78.28%) |
28.33% (69.33%) |
33.79% (103.93%) |
26.08% (74.66%) |
24.15% (81.72%) |
55.63% (79.23%) |
| 複勝 | 57.37% (86.96%) |
56.25% (86.61%) |
58.08% (87.36%) |
63.33% (86.42%) |
70.32% (97.63%) |
58.59% (81.16%) |
55.79% (87.93%) |
88.31% (82.89%) |
| 枠連 | 15.18% (90.56%) |
13.91% (92.78%) |
15.76% (88.13%) |
24.24% (97.47%) |
-- (--) |
16.81% (82.19%) |
13.68% (87.60%) |
29.92% (80.77%) |
| 馬連 | 11.35% (79.21%) |
10.83% (76.70%) |
11.24% (80.30%) |
20.00% (99.50%) |
23.29% (88.04%) |
13.72% (76.49%) |
9.48% (79.32%) |
23.56% (74.04%) |
| ワイド | 25.79% (89.70%) |
25.81% (82.81%) |
25.21% (97.21%) |
33.33% (83.75%) |
48.86% (102.60%) |
29.17% (75.38%) |
22.58% (93.31%) |
47.03% (79.90%) |
| 馬単 | 5.99% (75.75%) |
5.68% (77.66%) |
5.83% (70.70%) |
12.50% (118.00%) |
12.79% (109.36%) |
6.80% (68.16%) |
5.11% (75.24%) |
23.56% (71.45%) |
| 三連複 | 5.33% (61.36%) |
5.98% (65.36%) |
4.62% (59.40%) |
5.83% (31.83%) |
14.61% (74.11%) |
6.80% (53.30%) |
4.00% (62.89%) |
15.60% (75.73%) |
| 三連単 | 1.01% (30.52%) |
0.95% (25.48%) |
1.03% (36.45%) |
1.67% (19.92%) |
2.28% (34.02%) |
1.48% (26.71%) |
0.74% (31.47%) |
15.60% (69.22%) |
| 総合 | 58.70% (74.22%) |
57.43% (73.71%) |
59.54% (74.66%) |
65.00% (75.29%) |
75.34% (87.10%) |
59.58% (67.26%) |
56.90% (74.94%) |
88.71% (73.05%) |
このモデル20MBなんですが、他の処理諸々した後ではOOM。さらだを一旦終了して再度起動して検証したら出来た。つまり、少しダイエットが必要。更に、ボーダー0にしたからなのか微妙にワイド以降の馬券の的中率が微減。
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