一時は複勝率6割目前まで来てたのに、新たな特徴量追加したからなのか遠のいてしまった。情報が多過ぎて把握しきれてないってか、頭が付いて行ってないorz ちょっと良さそうなモデルが出てもOOMで使えなかったり、32bitというJV-Linkの足枷が... 今やってる学習はそのモデルサイズを抑えてイテレーション数3,000、葉271、率0.008、分割数47、葉の最小50、ボーダー500、乗数1.0で、NDCG@1=0.7825 NDCG@3=0.7861というモデルは
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 25.76% (81.12%) |
24.57% (81.04%) |
26.67% (81.65%) |
30.00% (75.00%) |
30.14% (95.11%) |
27.19% (80.46%) |
24.89% (80.08%) |
56.79% (78.50%) |
| 複勝 | 57.48% (84.91%) |
56.13% (83.51%) |
58.44% (86.35%) |
63.33% (84.67%) |
69.41% (95.98%) |
60.44% (82.41%) |
55.42% (84.74%) |
88.65% (82.42%) |
| 枠連 | 15.61% (90.97%) |
15.40% (101.43%) |
15.50% (82.78%) |
20.20% (72.22%) |
-- (--) |
16.69% (86.13%) |
14.26% (86.81%) |
30.47% (81.33%) |
| 馬連 | 11.75% (81.79%) |
11.72% (86.31%) |
11.36% (78.10%) |
17.50% (68.92%) |
22.37% (76.89%) |
14.09% (84.54%) |
10.01% (81.32%) |
24.40% (74.64%) |
| ワイド | 25.99% (88.89%) |
26.58% (86.48%) |
25.09% (92.57%) |
30.00% (72.25%) |
48.40% (99.45%) |
30.66% (84.02%) |
22.41% (89.56%) |
47.32% (79.18%) |
| 馬単 | 6.34% (80.72%) |
5.92% (81.44%) |
6.38% (79.40%) |
11.67% (88.75%) |
8.22% (62.05%) |
7.66% (90.91%) |
5.73% (79.01%) |
24.40% (71.91%) |
| 三連複 | 5.93% (70.74%) |
6.69% (62.47%) |
5.10% (78.40%) |
6.67% (82.17%) |
15.53% (67.31%) |
7.54% (66.82%) |
4.53% (72.36%) |
16.58% (71.67%) |
| 三連単 | 1.24% (55.63%) |
1.36% (56.97%) |
1.15% (57.67%) |
0.83% (8.92%) |
2.28% (41.05%) |
1.36% (34.76%) |
1.11% (63.91%) |
16.58% (67.14%) |
| 総合 | 58.81% (79.19%) |
57.49% (79.50%) |
59.78% (79.60%) |
64.17% (69.04%) |
73.97% (76.84%) |
61.19% (76.26%) |
56.65% (79.72%) |
88.91% (71.69%) |
やはりここ最近のレベルにとどまってる。この打開策として、そもそも追加した特徴量を無視させるか、新たな特徴量を追加するか。
追記 2026.6.28 8:38
CustomGainsでボーダーを入れた方がってAIの提案から入れてるのですが、どうも何度か色々試してるけど、0～1000をボーダー無しにした方が精度が高いモデルが出る感じ。上記のボーダーのみ0に変えた学習でNDCG@1=0.7837 NDCG@3=0.7878だと
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 25.30% (80.47%) |
24.57% (82.66%) |
25.64% (78.44%) |
30.83% (77.67%) |
33.33% (101.00%) |
27.07% (77.63%) |
23.98% (79.57%) |
55.31% (77.46%) |
| 複勝 | 57.02% (84.88%) |
56.07% (84.42%) |
57.72% (85.61%) |
60.83% (81.33%) |
70.32% (97.35%) |
59.70% (80.52%) |
54.92% (85.20%) |
88.60% (82.19%) |
| 枠連 | 14.99% (86.24%) |
14.76% (96.04%) |
14.99% (78.48%) |
18.18% (70.20%) |
-- (--) |
16.19% (77.35%) |
13.64% (83.73%) |
29.62% (81.34%) |
| 馬連 | 11.29% (77.26%) |
11.19% (80.10%) |
11.12% (75.38%) |
15.00% (63.08%) |
21.46% (65.80%) |
13.84% (74.59%) |
9.52% (79.19%) |
23.15% (71.77%) |
| ワイド | 26.02% (88.25%) |
26.94% (86.29%) |
24.91% (91.82%) |
28.33% (66.83%) |
48.40% (85.25%) |
30.78% (81.21%) |
22.41% (90.87%) |
46.11% (77.35%) |
| 馬単 | 6.08% (73.91%) |
5.51% (66.52%) |
6.44% (81.90%) |
9.17% (68.25%) |
10.50% (64.47%) |
6.92% (61.83%) |
5.40% (78.79%) |
23.15% (69.87%) |
| 三連複 | 5.59% (65.01%) |
6.34% (56.25%) |
4.80% (76.42%) |
5.83% (31.92%) |
15.07% (67.81%) |
7.66% (59.06%) |
4.04% (66.74%) |
15.77% (69.57%) |
| 三連単 | 1.04% (55.27%) |
0.83% (22.68%) |
1.15% (90.19%) |
2.50% (34.92%) |
0.91% (16.67%) |
1.36% (24.34%) |
0.95% (69.06%) |
15.77% (65.10%) |
| 総合 | 58.35% (76.28%) |
57.43% (71.36%) |
58.99% (82.30%) |
62.50% (61.59%) |
75.80% (71.19%) |
60.44% (67.07%) |
56.08% (79.15%) |
88.91% (69.89%) |
ってあれ? 指標は高くても実際には悪いな^^; ちょっと似たモデルでNDCG@1=0.7837 NDCG@3=0.7879だと
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 25.47% (80.81%) |
24.45% (81.73%) |
26.25% (80.55%) |
29.17% (71.42%) |
32.88% (100.09%) |
26.45% (73.16%) |
24.47% (81.62%) |
55.02% (76.83%) |
| 複勝 | 57.66% (85.89%) |
56.78% (85.16%) |
58.26% (86.85%) |
61.67% (83.00%) |
70.78% (97.72%) |
60.44% (81.11%) |
55.54% (86.42%) |
88.39% (82.24%) |
| 枠連 | 14.63% (87.34%) |
14.34% (103.80%) |
14.49% (72.78%) |
21.21% (84.44%) |
-- (--) |
15.33% (76.91%) |
13.47% (85.27%) |
29.36% (77.24%) |
| 馬連 | 10.88% (79.47%) |
10.89% (89.62%) |
10.33% (68.91%) |
18.33% (81.50%) |
20.09% (63.56%) |
12.98% (75.24%) |
9.35% (82.32%) |
23.04% (69.40%) |
| ワイド | 25.67% (88.30%) |
26.70% (90.57%) |
24.30% (87.50%) |
30.00% (67.33%) |
47.49% (95.02%) |
29.54% (81.26%) |
22.41% (90.05%) |
46.48% (77.71%) |
| 馬単 | 5.88% (79.08%) |
5.27% (79.59%) |
6.08% (77.08%) |
11.67% (99.50%) |
9.59% (60.87%) |
6.30% (70.36%) |
5.40% (83.63%) |
23.04% (66.81%) |
| 三連複 | 5.73% (62.67%) |
6.51% (55.93%) |
4.98% (72.00%) |
5.00% (29.50%) |
16.44% (93.01%) |
7.79% (56.51%) |
4.08% (61.98%) |
15.60% (67.09%) |
| 三連単 | 1.04% (62.21%) |
0.95% (28.79%) |
1.03% (95.19%) |
2.50% (80.33%) |
1.37% (30.09%) |
0.99% (21.82%) |
1.03% (78.58%) |
15.60% (61.21%) |
| 総合 | 58.99% (78.10%) |
58.26% (76.33%) |
59.48% (80.15%) |
62.50% (74.41%) |
76.71% (77.20%) |
61.06% (67.05%) |
56.70% (81.23%) |
88.71% (67.01%) |
@3が0.0001違うだけだけど、確かに違いはある。NDCG@1=0.7844 NDCG@3=0.7882のモデルは
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 25.15% (80.00%) |
24.69% (83.06%) |
25.39% (77.68%) |
28.33% (68.75%) |
32.42% (100.59%) |
25.46% (72.41%) |
24.39% (80.67%) |
55.02% (76.87%) |
| 複勝 | 57.45% (85.23%) |
56.60% (85.04%) |
58.02% (85.61%) |
61.67% (82.67%) |
70.78% (98.31%) |
59.83% (80.96%) |
55.46% (85.47%) |
88.28% (81.77%) |
| 枠連 | 15.06% (88.43%) |
14.62% (101.26%) |
14.87% (76.22%) |
24.24% (100.00%) |
-- (--) |
16.19% (77.44%) |
13.72% (86.49%) |
29.72% (79.03%) |
| 馬連 | 11.35% (81.81%) |
11.25% (91.90%) |
10.75% (70.61%) |
20.83% (93.25%) |
21.00% (64.47%) |
13.72% (77.56%) |
9.68% (84.78%) |
23.30% (71.32%) |
| ワイド | 26.22% (89.27%) |
27.18% (93.62%) |
24.73% (85.71%) |
33.33% (77.00%) |
47.49% (93.52%) |
31.15% (83.60%) |
22.66% (90.78%) |
46.11% (75.42%) |
| 馬単 | 5.93% (78.44%) |
5.27% (81.91%) |
6.14% (73.80%) |
12.50% (93.25%) |
9.59% (61.69%) |
6.06% (63.03%) |
5.56% (85.09%) |
23.30% (68.97%) |
| 三連複 | 5.44% (59.71%) |
6.39% (51.90%) |
4.43% (69.74%) |
5.83% (31.92%) |
15.53% (79.00%) |
7.66% (54.15%) |
3.79% (59.82%) |
16.01% (70.33%) |
| 三連単 | 1.01% (37.28%) |
0.95% (31.27%) |
0.97% (43.63%) |
2.50% (34.92%) |
1.83% (27.81%) |
1.36% (22.14%) |
0.82% (43.19%) |
16.01% (66.15%) |
| 総合 | 58.70% (74.84%) |
57.84% (76.99%) |
59.23% (72.86%) |
63.33% (72.11%) |
76.26% (75.06%) |
60.44% (66.41%) |
56.53% (77.04%) |
88.65% (70.03%) |
単勝が妙に落ちてるけど、ワイドは良い感じ。ワイドも可能なら3割狙いたいね。このモデルを新馬戦のみにしぼると
| 304R | 1点 | 芝(203R) | ダート(101R) | 障害(0R) | 8頭以下(31R) | 9～12頭(89R) | 13頭以上(184R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 24.34% (74.11%) |
28.08% (81.23%) |
16.83% (59.80%) |
-- (--) |
38.71% (85.16%) |
29.21% (98.99%) |
19.57% (60.22%) |
49.01% (60.41%) |
| 複勝 | 58.22% (86.84%) |
62.07% (85.37%) |
50.50% (89.80%) |
-- (--) |
83.87% (100.97%) |
59.55% (78.76%) |
53.26% (88.37%) |
86.84% (81.68%) |
| 枠連 | 14.62% (86.13%) |
17.72% (103.54%) |
9.47% (57.16%) |
-- (--) |
-- (--) |
19.10% (89.55%) |
10.87% (75.11%) |
25.69% (66.35%) |
| 馬連 | 9.21% (78.26%) |
11.33% (75.32%) |
4.95% (84.16%) |
-- (--) |
6.45% (11.61%) |
19.10% (96.63%) |
4.89% (80.60%) |
18.09% (54.78%) |
| ワイド | 24.01% (107.63%) |
28.57% (91.63%) |
14.85% (139.80%) |
-- (--) |
51.61% (82.26%) |
28.09% (80.11%) |
17.39% (125.22%) |
42.43% (77.57%) |
| 馬単 | 4.28% (45.72%) |
5.91% (62.81%) |
0.99% (11.39%) |
-- (--) |
3.23% (11.29%) |
8.99% (98.09%) |
2.17% (26.20%) |
18.09% (48.96%) |
| 三連複 | 2.63% (17.07%) |
3.45% (19.21%) |
0.99% (12.77%) |
-- (--) |
9.68% (30.00%) |
2.25% (10.22%) |
1.63% (18.21%) |
12.83% (60.41%) |
| 三連単 | 0.33% (7.80%) |
0.49% (11.67%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
-- (--) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.54% (12.88%) |
12.83% (51.52%) |
| 総合 | 59.54% (62.45%) |
63.55% (65.29%) |
51.49% (56.86%) |
-- (--) |
87.10% (45.90%) |
59.55% (69.04%) |
54.89% (60.85%) |
87.50% (56.90%) |
ワイドが頑張ってるのが分かる^^
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