気合い入れてコーディングしてきましたが、なんとか検証出来る所まで来ました。
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 0.93% (39.29%) |
0.77% (22.89%) |
1.15% (58.99%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
1.83% (11.83%) |
1.24% (32.87%) |
0.74% (43.91%) |
5.30% (50.12%) |
| 複勝 | 4.11% (41.77%) |
4.03% (38.35%) |
3.83% (43.00%) |
9.17% (72.92%) |
6.85% (26.12%) |
6.06% (45.75%) |
3.21% (41.85%) |
19.33% (56.03%) |
| 枠連 | 1.40% (46.26%) |
1.77% (48.20%) |
1.14% (47.43%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
-- (--) |
1.11% (40.06%) |
1.40% (45.39%) |
3.57% (45.95%) |
| 馬連 | 0.03% (4.57%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.06% (9.59%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.12% (19.51%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.43% (25.44%) |
| ワイド | 0.26% (6.58%) |
0.41% (11.24%) |
0.12% (2.28%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
1.37% (16.12%) |
0.25% (4.64%) |
0.16% (6.37%) |
1.68% (27.69%) |
| 馬単 | 0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.43% (28.34%) |
| 三連複 | 0.06% (12.41%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.12% (26.04%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.25% (52.99%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.26% (29.22%) |
| 三連単 | 0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.26% (22.90%) |
| 総合 | 5.21% (18.48%) |
5.39% (14.38%) |
4.74% (23.28%) |
9.17% (9.32%) |
7.76% (7.72%) |
6.80% (24.48%) |
4.45% (17.19%) |
21.22% (29.47%) |
で、まあ、単に学習もやっとエラー無く実行出来、検証も出来る所まで持ってくるのが精一杯でしたので、ここからこのモデルの実際の調整になります。しかし、こんなに外せるのかって程酷い予測結果ですね。これ、例えば、18頭立ての単勝って何も考えずに5.5%程度の確率はあるのに0.93%とか狙って外さないと出来ないレベル(笑)
あくまでも参考程度な話ですが、これ500回学習させてNDCG@1=0.7539、NDCG@3=0.7628ってモデルです。
にしても、やはり変だなって事でコードをチェックしてたら決定的なミスがorz 検証部分もそうなんですが、基本的には相対タイム関連を元に派生させる感じでやってたのでやってしまいました。相対タイム予測は予測はタイムなので小さい方が早いので小さい順に順位決めてますが、今回のランキングは数値が大きい方が強いって事で大きい順にしなきゃなのが逆に。どおりで狙って外してるレベルなんですね(笑)
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 24.17% (74.54%) |
22.44% (72.05%) |
25.70% (76.70%) |
27.50% (80.00%) |
34.70% (90.50%) |
24.85% (73.86%) |
22.99% (73.33%) |
53.02% (75.61%) |
| 複勝 | 54.04% (81.66%) |
51.81% (78.04%) |
55.53% (84.99%) |
65.00% (86.83%) |
61.64% (79.00%) |
57.35% (79.36%) |
52.25% (82.66%) |
86.34% (81.40%) |
| 枠連 | 14.05% (76.78%) |
13.13% (78.56%) |
14.36% (74.49%) |
22.22% (87.78%) |
-- (--) |
14.59% (66.42%) |
12.98% (75.36%) |
28.88% (78.27%) |
| 馬連 | 10.88% (74.87%) |
10.24% (73.73%) |
11.06% (75.90%) |
17.50% (76.67%) |
21.00% (77.85%) |
11.62% (61.97%) |
9.72% (78.90%) |
22.75% (73.07%) |
| ワイド | 23.94% (76.33%) |
23.51% (77.51%) |
23.94% (75.66%) |
30.00% (68.83%) |
43.38% (80.37%) |
27.44% (70.63%) |
21.01% (77.87%) |
44.43% (76.12%) |
| 馬単 | 5.76% (74.28%) |
5.03% (68.57%) |
6.20% (79.87%) |
10.00% (78.00%) |
11.87% (92.92%) |
5.69% (55.44%) |
5.23% (78.88%) |
22.75% (69.29%) |
| 三連複 | 5.33% (62.21%) |
5.51% (48.82%) |
5.22% (78.59%) |
4.17% (25.92%) |
14.61% (74.70%) |
6.80% (61.59%) |
4.00% (61.28%) |
15.02% (72.48%) |
| 三連単 | 0.93% (50.89%) |
0.95% (37.02%) |
0.91% (67.19%) |
0.83% (22.67%) |
2.28% (121.96%) |
1.36% (38.58%) |
0.66% (48.58%) |
15.02% (70.61%) |
| 総合 | 55.20% (71.37%) |
52.93% (66.54%) |
56.68% (76.69%) |
66.67% (65.35%) |
66.21% (88.19%) |
58.22% (63.48%) |
53.19% (72.11%) |
86.63% (72.46%) |
こちらが修正した結果です。これなら、ここから学習を進めれば改善の余地がありそうです。
追記 2026.6.7 10:54
2000回にしてNDCG@1=0.7536、NDCG@3=0.7643でしたが、
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 24.63% (75.91%) |
23.21% (73.31%) |
25.76% (76.85%) |
29.17% (99.67%) |
35.62% (91.64%) |
25.83% (77.53%) |
23.24% (73.95%) |
53.34% (76.80%) |
| 複勝 | 54.65% (82.57%) |
52.63% (78.89%) |
55.71% (85.39%) |
68.33% (95.67%) |
61.64% (79.27%) |
59.33% (82.60%) |
52.45% (82.86%) |
86.08% (81.27%) |
| 枠連 | 14.28% (81.49%) |
13.34% (86.09%) |
14.61% (77.27%) |
22.22% (83.13%) |
-- (--) |
14.96% (77.47%) |
13.14% (77.66%) |
28.88% (77.72%) |
| 馬連 | 11.11% (94.45%) |
10.54% (112.09%) |
11.30% (78.11%) |
16.67% (70.42%) |
20.09% (61.46%) |
11.87% (65.96%) |
10.05% (106.93%) |
23.07% (76.53%) |
| ワイド | 24.23% (81.99%) |
23.80% (87.91%) |
24.42% (77.48%) |
27.50% (60.58%) |
43.38% (85.98%) |
27.56% (72.13%) |
21.38% (84.92%) |
44.34% (77.46%) |
| 馬単 | 6.31% (79.01%) |
5.86% (74.66%) |
6.68% (85.04%) |
7.50% (57.58%) |
12.79% (77.95%) |
6.67% (63.07%) |
5.60% (84.42%) |
23.07% (73.43%) |
| 三連複 | 5.59% (67.55%) |
5.98% (67.66%) |
5.29% (70.46%) |
4.17% (25.92%) |
13.70% (67.53%) |
6.80% (63.24%) |
4.45% (68.98%) |
14.70% (68.27%) |
| 三連単 | 1.33% (66.18%) |
1.42% (82.86%) |
1.28% (52.24%) |
0.83% (22.67%) |
1.83% (42.10%) |
1.85% (79.26%) |
1.11% (64.00%) |
14.70% (66.14%) |
| 総合 | 55.86% (78.61%) |
53.88% (82.87%) |
56.93% (75.35%) |
69.17% (64.04%) |
66.21% (72.28%) |
60.20% (72.65%) |
53.48% (80.47%) |
86.34% (70.75%) |
ほんのり改善って感じかな。
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