2025/11/30

なぜかRMSEが良くならない

今12時間学習の5回目の終わり近くなんですが、この学習で現在RMSE 1.4531とかで

1,233R 1点 芝(632R) ダート(552R) 障害(49R) 8頭以下(114R) 9~12頭(315R) 13頭以上(804R) 多点
単勝 20.92%
(76.53%)
19.15%
(72.41%)
21.92%
(79.76%)
32.65%
(93.27%)
28.95%
(64.56%)
22.86%
(80.44%)
19.03%
(76.69%)
47.04%
(73.48%)
複勝 48.91%
(82.27%)
45.73%
(82.56%)
51.27%
(80.09%)
63.27%
(103.06%)
56.14%
(73.07%)
57.78%
(91.84%)
44.40%
(79.83%)
84.02%
(84.24%)
枠連 11.13%
(82.90%)
9.27%
(72.49%)
11.43%
(87.09%)
32.43%
(167.03%)
--
(--)
13.33%
(75.17%)
9.45%
(79.84%)
23.11%
(80.07%)
馬連 8.84%
(77.91%)
7.91%
(60.17%)
8.70%
(86.81%)
22.45%
(206.33%)
18.42%
(65.00%)
11.11%
(66.57%)
6.59%
(84.18%)
18.82%
(80.38%)
ワイド 17.68%
(69.34%)
16.14%
(54.37%)
18.30%
(83.73%)
30.61%
(100.41%)
35.09%
(68.07%)
23.81%
(75.30%)
12.81%
(67.19%)
38.52%
(88.32%)
馬単 4.87%
(83.67%)
5.22%
(78.43%)
3.99%
(86.90%)
10.20%
(114.90%)
10.53%
(59.04%)
6.67%
(77.17%)
3.36%
(89.71%)
18.82%
(75.03%)
三連複 4.46%
(97.92%)
4.11%
(111.22%)
4.35%
(81.38%)
10.20%
(112.86%)
10.53%
(47.81%)
7.30%
(108.95%)
2.49%
(100.71%)
12.65%
(80.16%)
三連単 1.54%
(173.62%)
1.74%
(282.63%)
1.27%
(54.84%)
2.04%
(105.71%)
1.75%
(25.26%)
3.17%
(257.65%)
0.87%
(161.73%)
12.65%
(63.99%)
総合 50.12%
(93.20%)
46.99%
(102.53%)
52.54%
(80.02%)
63.27%
(124.13%)
58.77%
(57.54%)
58.10%
(104.14%)
45.77%
(92.48%)
84.59%
(71.86%)

単複の的中率はまだまだですが、意外と三連系が当たってる感じなのは良い感じ。障害レースは得意なのかも。

今回の学習1回目のRMSE 1.4721は巨大なモデルで248.9MBです。

1,233R 1点 芝(632R) ダート(552R) 障害(49R) 8頭以下(114R) 9~12頭(315R) 13頭以上(804R) 多点
単勝 20.60%
(78.14%)
18.67%
(68.34%)
22.28%
(89.24%)
26.53%
(79.59%)
29.82%
(62.63%)
19.37%
(58.57%)
19.78%
(88.01%)
49.23%
(81.06%)
複勝 47.36%
(82.73%)
45.25%
(87.06%)
49.09%
(78.24%)
55.10%
(77.35%)
57.02%
(70.09%)
52.38%
(83.14%)
44.03%
(84.35%)
84.59%
(83.01%)
枠連 11.98%
(91.77%)
9.66%
(73.59%)
13.76%
(110.99%)
18.92%
(72.97%)
--
(--)
14.60%
(69.49%)
10.07%
(93.77%)
22.83%
(71.98%)
馬連 8.11%
(71.16%)
7.12%
(50.68%)
8.88%
(95.98%)
12.24%
(55.71%)
14.91%
(52.63%)
9.52%
(42.98%)
6.59%
(84.83%)
18.73%
(64.94%)
ワイド 18.49%
(83.30%)
16.61%
(73.13%)
20.29%
(96.63%)
22.45%
(64.29%)
34.21%
(71.23%)
21.90%
(67.65%)
14.93%
(91.14%)
37.15%
(76.74%)
馬単 4.70%
(83.64%)
3.96%
(49.38%)
5.43%
(125.36%)
6.12%
(55.51%)
8.77%
(62.28%)
4.44%
(40.19%)
4.23%
(103.69%)
18.73%
(61.85%)
三連複 4.06%
(60.43%)
3.64%
(45.71%)
4.53%
(80.96%)
4.08%
(18.98%)
12.28%
(57.02%)
5.40%
(54.76%)
2.36%
(63.13%)
12.17%
(70.04%)
三連単 1.14%
(78.24%)
0.95%
(41.95%)
1.27%
(121.72%)
2.04%
(56.53%)
0.88%
(5.53%)
1.90%
(106.60%)
0.87%
(77.44%)
12.17%
(66.69%)
総合 49.47%
(78.44%)
47.63%
(60.92%)
50.91%
(99.80%)
57.14%
(59.71%)
64.04%
(54.49%)
54.29%
(65.42%)
45.52%
(85.80%)
85.08%
(69.05%)

これでは全く話にならない。ここまで4回の中でこれが一番なRMSEってのが辛い。5回目はこのまま行くと↑のになるかとは思うが、その後の5回で更に良いものが出てくれないと心折れそう。

自分が組んだAutoMLですが、学習時間を長くすると無駄に長いトライアルがあったり、エラーで終わるものも多い気がする。この後、更に長時間学習に挑むべきか...

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