昨夜一晩PC休ませたので今朝から順位予測フルCKのLightGBMでの100回行ってました。通常用とは違い結構早めに進んでました。現時点で残り2回なので終わったら寝る感じかなぁ。ここまでの最適RMSE 3.6783はこれまでのものとは大分良さそうだと思ったんですが
| 503R | 1点 | 芝(244R) | ダート(238R) | 障害(21R) | 8頭以下(51R) | 9～12頭(149R) | 13頭以上(303R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 25.05% (92.45%) |
22.54% (80.66%) |
26.47% (98.40%) |
38.10% (161.90%) |
31.37% (101.96%) |
32.89% (76.64%) |
20.13% (98.61%) |
53.68% (86.48%) |
| 複勝 | 51.49% (83.26%) |
47.95% (79.67%) |
54.20% (84.87%) |
61.90% (106.67%) |
58.82% (77.06%) |
63.09% (85.44%) |
44.55% (83.23%) |
87.28% (82.66%) |
| 枠連 | 10.28% (68.86%) |
8.67% (63.72%) |
11.71% (75.41%) |
10.00% (24.00%) |
-- (--) |
12.75% (59.46%) |
8.25% (68.02%) |
26.87% (90.56%) |
| 馬連 | 6.76% (47.93%) |
5.74% (57.42%) |
7.56% (39.75%) |
9.52% (30.48%) |
15.69% (57.84%) |
8.05% (41.34%) |
4.62% (49.50%) |
20.68% (74.33%) |
| ワイド | 17.69% (67.61%) |
15.98% (54.39%) |
19.33% (80.76%) |
19.05% (72.38%) |
41.18% (100.20%) |
23.49% (68.66%) |
10.89% (61.62%) |
40.16% (93.72%) |
| 馬単 | 4.37% (55.45%) |
3.28% (67.42%) |
5.04% (44.08%) |
9.52% (45.24%) |
9.80% (55.29%) |
5.37% (38.05%) |
2.97% (64.03%) |
20.68% (67.91%) |
| 三連複 | 5.57% (58.73%) |
6.15% (63.57%) |
3.78% (37.90%) |
19.05% (238.57%) |
19.61% (128.24%) |
7.38% (50.54%) |
2.31% (51.06%) |
13.92% (73.68%) |
| 三連単 | 1.39% (70.44%) |
1.23% (97.66%) |
0.84% (35.97%) |
9.52% (144.76%) |
3.92% (28.63%) |
1.34% (21.68%) |
0.99% (101.45%) |
13.92% (68.34%) |
| 総合 | 52.88% (68.08%) |
49.18% (70.74%) |
55.46% (62.03%) |
66.67% (108.54%) |
64.71% (78.46%) |
63.76% (55.23%) |
45.54% (72.19%) |
87.28% (73.78%) |
微妙にもう一息な感じ。大体100回ではもう一つで、200回でやっと良い感じのモデル出てきてる感じがするので追加100回開始して寝る事になりそうです。
追記 2024.11.18 21:45
時点のRMSE 3.6809だと
| 503R | 1点 | 芝(244R) | ダート(238R) | 障害(21R) | 8頭以下(51R) | 9～12頭(149R) | 13頭以上(303R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 26.04% (90.52%) |
25.82% (80.25%) |
25.21% (94.75%) |
38.10% (161.90%) |
37.25% (112.16%) |
34.90% (92.62%) |
19.80% (85.84%) |
55.07% (91.94%) |
| 複勝 | 52.09% (86.10%) |
51.23% (84.43%) |
53.36% (88.91%) |
47.62% (73.81%) |
60.78% (77.65%) |
62.42% (85.37%) |
45.54% (87.89%) |
87.08% (84.52%) |
| 枠連 | 10.51% (71.19%) |
8.67% (68.88%) |
12.16% (75.36%) |
10.00% (24.00%) |
-- (--) |
14.77% (72.15%) |
7.59% (65.08%) |
24.53% (70.73%) |
| 馬連 | 6.76% (49.76%) |
6.15% (55.33%) |
7.14% (45.76%) |
9.52% (30.48%) |
11.76% (42.94%) |
8.72% (44.50%) |
4.95% (53.50%) |
21.07% (71.19%) |
| ワイド | 19.48% (82.76%) |
19.26% (71.84%) |
19.33% (91.51%) |
23.81% (110.48%) |
41.18% (99.22%) |
24.83% (70.00%) |
13.20% (86.27%) |
41.55% (94.25%) |
| 馬単 | 3.98% (61.23%) |
3.69% (70.37%) |
3.78% (53.28%) |
9.52% (45.24%) |
7.84% (67.65%) |
4.70% (49.66%) |
2.97% (65.84%) |
21.07% (67.04%) |
| 三連複 | 6.56% (65.01%) |
6.97% (67.99%) |
5.04% (46.64%) |
19.05% (238.57%) |
21.57% (133.73%) |
8.72% (60.20%) |
2.97% (55.81%) |
13.92% (55.03%) |
| 三連単 | 0.99% (45.96%) |
0.82% (79.84%) |
0.42% (2.52%) |
9.52% (144.76%) |
5.88% (108.04%) |
0.67% (14.63%) |
0.33% (50.92%) |
13.92% (57.95%) |
| 総合 | 53.08% (69.03%) |
52.46% (72.45%) |
54.20% (62.23%) |
47.62% (109.24%) |
64.71% (91.62%) |
63.09% (61.14%) |
46.20% (68.89%) |
87.08% (66.29%) |
なんか微妙にマシ? この辺りがRMSEだよりだと見逃す良い感じのモデルなんですよね^^;
追記 2024.11.19
追加で確か200回程でスタートしてた記憶なんですが、記憶があいまいです。っ何にしてもここまでの最適RMSE 3.6749が出たんですが、
| 503R | 1点 | 芝(244R) | ダート(238R) | 障害(21R) | 8頭以下(51R) | 9～12頭(149R) | 13頭以上(303R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 25.45% (103.16%) |
25.00% (119.02%) |
24.79% (82.69%) |
38.10% (150.95%) |
33.33% (101.96%) |
33.56% (85.77%) |
20.13% (111.91%) |
54.47% (94.59%) |
| 複勝 | 52.29% (88.87%) |
51.64% (96.64%) |
52.94% (81.93%) |
52.38% (77.14%) |
60.78% (76.86%) |
63.09% (86.58%) |
45.54% (92.01%) |
87.28% (83.06%) |
| 枠連 | 11.92% (76.03%) |
8.67% (55.82%) |
14.86% (96.22%) |
10.00% (24.00%) |
-- (--) |
16.78% (90.94%) |
8.58% (62.67%) |
26.17% (93.35%) |
| 馬連 | 8.15% (58.39%) |
6.56% (49.88%) |
9.66% (69.58%) |
9.52% (30.48%) |
13.73% (50.59%) |
12.08% (86.98%) |
5.28% (45.64%) |
20.28% (84.22%) |
| ワイド | 19.68% (119.82%) |
17.21% (128.61%) |
21.85% (112.56%) |
23.81% (100.00%) |
39.22% (95.29%) |
26.85% (85.84%) |
12.87% (140.66%) |
38.57% (93.62%) |
| 馬単 | 4.37% (63.18%) |
3.28% (60.08%) |
5.04% (67.94%) |
9.52% (45.24%) |
7.84% (50.20%) |
6.04% (81.68%) |
2.97% (56.27%) |
20.28% (82.21%) |
| 三連複 | 7.16% (101.75%) |
7.38% (78.44%) |
5.88% (113.57%) |
19.05% (238.57%) |
21.57% (174.12%) |
10.07% (100.47%) |
3.30% (90.20%) |
14.12% (59.71%) |
| 三連単 | 1.19% (100.42%) |
0.41% (30.12%) |
1.26% (168.57%) |
9.52% (144.76%) |
3.92% (28.63%) |
2.01% (279.87%) |
0.33% (24.26%) |
14.12% (63.84%) |
| 総合 | 53.28% (89.20%) |
52.46% (77.87%) |
54.20% (99.16%) |
52.38% (106.82%) |
62.75% (82.52%) |
63.09% (112.27%) |
46.86% (77.95%) |
87.48% (73.44%) |
大分良い感じに来てますね。ただ、気が付いたらアプリ死んでたorzまだ80回とか残ってた気がするけど...今回、Edgeも単に稼働してたんですが、何度かウィンドウサイズが勝手に変わってた。LightGBMアプリで特にそんな事してるとは思えないけど、どこか挙動が変なのかもしれないです。
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