相変わらずイマイチなので学習データを9月末までにして新馬戦CKの最適RMSE 1.6161を得て10月で検証すると
| 42R | 1点 | 芝(27R) | ダート(15R) | 8頭以下(0R) | 9～12頭(6R) | 13頭以上(36R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 23.81% (89.29%) |
18.52% (92.22%) |
33.33% (84.00%) |
-- (--) |
16.67% (23.33%) |
25.00% (100.28%) |
61.90% (79.84%) |
| 複勝 | 50.00% (97.62%) |
44.44% (98.89%) |
60.00% (95.33%) |
-- (--) |
16.67% (18.33%) |
55.56% (110.83%) |
83.33% (68.97%) |
| 枠連 | 7.14% (66.67%) |
11.11% (103.70%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
-- (--) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
8.33% (77.78%) |
7.14% (53.83%) |
| 馬連 | 4.76% (77.86%) |
7.41% (121.11%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
-- (--) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
5.56% (90.83%) |
16.67% (61.11%) |
| ワイド | 9.52% (46.90%) |
11.11% (64.81%) |
6.67% (14.67%) |
-- (--) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
11.11% (54.72%) |
30.95% (67.38%) |
| 馬単 | 2.38% (126.90%) |
3.70% (197.41%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
-- (--) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
2.78% (148.06%) |
16.67% (65.75%) |
| 三連複 | 2.38% (161.90%) |
3.70% (251.85%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
-- (--) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
2.78% (188.89%) |
7.14% (56.73%) |
| 三連単 | 2.38% (965.00%) |
3.70% (1,501.11%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
-- (--) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
2.78% (1,125.83%) |
7.14% (60.27%) |
| 総合 | 50.00% (204.02%) |
44.44% (303.89%) |
60.00% (24.25%) |
-- (--) |
16.67% (5.21%) |
55.56% (237.15%) |
83.33% (62.50%) |
こんなでした。まっ、たまたま大きいのヒットしてるので回収率は良い感じなんですが、的中率もほどほどかな? 通常用CKの最適RMSE 1.3893がここまでの出てますが、まだ途中でこの後もっと良いものが出るかもですが、
| 246R | 1点 | 芝(111R) | ダート(123R) | 障害(12R) | 8頭以下(35R) | 9～12頭(95R) | 13頭以上(116R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 21.54% (56.38%) |
23.42% (64.23%) |
19.51% (49.92%) |
25.00% (50.00%) |
22.86% (46.86%) |
28.42% (61.89%) |
15.52% (54.74%) |
48.78% (63.66%) |
| 複勝 | 50.81% (69.27%) |
49.55% (70.45%) |
52.03% (69.02%) |
50.00% (60.83%) |
57.14% (64.86%) |
54.74% (69.89%) |
45.69% (70.09%) |
85.37% (74.77%) |
| 枠連 | 17.68% (92.88%) |
17.50% (107.50%) |
18.02% (86.04%) |
14.29% (34.29%) |
-- (--) |
20.00% (98.00%) |
13.79% (78.28%) |
29.80% (72.45%) |
| 馬連 | 13.41% (72.07%) |
13.51% (86.22%) |
13.01% (62.11%) |
16.67% (43.33%) |
28.57% (100.86%) |
14.74% (87.16%) |
7.76% (51.03%) |
23.17% (65.93%) |
| ワイド | 25.61% (77.60%) |
23.42% (61.98%) |
27.64% (93.09%) |
25.00% (63.33%) |
40.00% (67.43%) |
30.53% (80.32%) |
17.24% (78.45%) |
42.68% (70.07%) |
| 馬単 | 5.69% (60.49%) |
4.50% (64.50%) |
6.50% (58.62%) |
8.33% (42.50%) |
11.43% (90.00%) |
7.37% (73.89%) |
2.59% (40.60%) |
23.17% (59.61%) |
| 三連複 | 5.69% (80.33%) |
6.31% (96.49%) |
4.88% (67.56%) |
8.33% (61.67%) |
17.14% (58.29%) |
6.32% (93.37%) |
1.72% (76.29%) |
13.01% (48.42%) |
| 三連単 | 2.44% (118.94%) |
2.70% (193.24%) |
1.63% (45.77%) |
8.33% (181.67%) |
5.71% (93.14%) |
3.16% (82.21%) |
0.86% (156.81%) |
13.01% (43.03%) |
| 総合 | 53.25% (78.14%) |
54.05% (92.56%) |
52.85% (66.28%) |
50.00% (69.01%) |
60.00% (74.49%) |
56.84% (80.84%) |
48.28% (75.79%) |
85.37% (53.29%) |
時間的にそろそろ本日分の購入しなきゃなので行ってみます😉
追記 2024.11.4
日付変わって朝方まで掛かった様ですがまあ終わってました。最適RMSE 1.3759は6月末までの1.3677には及ばないものの
| 246R | 1点 | 芝(111R) | ダート(123R) | 障害(12R) | 8頭以下(35R) | 9～12頭(95R) | 13頭以上(116R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 23.98% (71.87%) |
25.23% (96.31%) |
21.14% (48.21%) |
41.67% (88.33%) |
28.57% (63.71%) |
27.37% (58.42%) |
19.83% (85.34%) |
51.22% (68.85%) |
| 複勝 | 54.47% (84.55%) |
54.05% (93.69%) |
54.47% (77.15%) |
58.33% (75.83%) |
68.57% (90.29%) |
56.84% (74.53%) |
48.28% (91.03%) |
90.24% (81.02%) |
| 枠連 | 15.66% (94.14%) |
15.00% (122.37%) |
16.22% (77.57%) |
14.29% (34.29%) |
-- (--) |
15.79% (65.05%) |
13.79% (107.41%) |
31.82% (78.69%) |
| 馬連 | 13.41% (95.24%) |
14.41% (150.72%) |
12.20% (50.24%) |
16.67% (43.33%) |
28.57% (115.71%) |
12.63% (53.68%) |
9.48% (123.10%) |
25.61% (69.32%) |
| ワイド | 24.80% (78.41%) |
24.32% (92.61%) |
26.02% (70.81%) |
16.67% (25.00%) |
45.71% (89.71%) |
25.26% (56.95%) |
18.10% (92.59%) |
45.12% (77.15%) |
| 馬単 | 8.54% (108.25%) |
8.11% (168.65%) |
8.13% (57.97%) |
16.67% (65.00%) |
14.29% (44.00%) |
8.42% (60.84%) |
6.90% (166.47%) |
25.61% (62.76%) |
| 三連複 | 5.69% (56.42%) |
5.41% (21.53%) |
5.69% (87.40%) |
8.33% (61.67%) |
14.29% (47.71%) |
7.37% (62.74%) |
1.72% (53.88%) |
14.63% (49.04%) |
| 三連単 | 2.03% (43.66%) |
2.70% (23.69%) |
0.81% (48.21%) |
8.33% (181.67%) |
5.71% (53.14%) |
3.16% (93.47%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
14.63% (55.23%) |
| 総合 | 55.28% (78.69%) |
54.95% (95.25%) |
55.28% (64.54%) |
58.33% (73.96%) |
68.57% (72.04%) |
56.84% (65.71%) |
50.00% (89.98%) |
90.24% (61.45%) |
どうかな?ワイドや三連単なんかが少し上のやつより低いのが気になるけど、こいつで順位用CSV出力して試してみます。
追記 2024.11.5 14:38
夜勤明け帰宅後順位予測フルCKの学習50回トライしてました。8時頃スタートして最適RMSE 3.7124は10時位に出てまして、50回終わったのは少し前なのでほぼ後半は無駄でした。検証期間変えると比較しづらいですが、2024.10.1～2024.11.3にしちゃいました。
| 359R | 1点 | 芝(173R) | ダート(171R) | 障害(15R) | 8頭以下(46R) | 9～12頭(120R) | 13頭以上(193R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 23.12% (71.78%) |
21.97% (73.29%) |
23.39% (71.93%) |
33.33% (52.67%) |
17.39% (27.17%) |
32.50% (81.17%) |
18.65% (76.58%) |
51.53% (77.78%) |
| 複勝 | 54.60% (86.60%) |
49.71% (78.67%) |
58.48% (91.99%) |
66.67% (116.67%) |
54.35% (71.30%) |
64.17% (90.33%) |
48.70% (87.93%) |
87.19% (80.35%) |
| 枠連 | 9.76% (59.63%) |
8.89% (62.74%) |
9.03% (49.42%) |
42.86% (225.71%) |
-- (--) |
10.83% (39.58%) |
8.29% (67.15%) |
25.93% (76.36%) |
| 馬連 | 8.64% (65.01%) |
8.67% (97.05%) |
7.02% (27.95%) |
26.67% (118.00%) |
17.39% (50.43%) |
10.00% (39.67%) |
5.70% (84.25%) |
23.40% (87.19%) |
| ワイド | 21.73% (76.63%) |
22.54% (88.27%) |
19.30% (62.11%) |
40.00% (108.00%) |
45.65% (80.00%) |
26.67% (66.67%) |
12.95% (82.02%) |
41.23% (80.84%) |
| 馬単 | 3.90% (26.85%) |
3.47% (33.12%) |
2.34% (8.42%) |
26.67% (164.67%) |
10.87% (32.17%) |
5.00% (31.92%) |
1.55% (22.44%) |
23.40% (81.28%) |
| 三連複 | 5.85% (73.90%) |
6.36% (63.41%) |
5.26% (86.67%) |
6.67% (49.33%) |
15.22% (51.30%) |
8.33% (116.92%) |
2.07% (52.54%) |
14.48% (68.45%) |
| 三連単 | 0.84% (11.20%) |
1.16% (10.64%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
6.67% (145.33%) |
2.17% (10.87%) |
1.67% (29.33%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
14.48% (66.34%) |
| 総合 | 56.55% (58.94%) |
51.45% (63.42%) |
60.82% (49.82%) |
66.67% (115.18%) |
58.70% (46.18%) |
65.00% (61.95%) |
50.78% (59.11%) |
87.47% (72.63%) |
この辺りが現状の限界?障害レースは相変わらず良い成績なんですが、これはやはり頭数が限られている事が多く、コースも限られてるからなんだろうか?多分頭数的に9～12頭になる事が多いから単複の的中率は近いのかな?
もしかしたら、新馬戦からもう少しじっくりと育てる必要もあるかもなのでもう少しやりこみます。
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