ノイズを削るって話と、精度を上げるって話。そんな中でちょっとJRA-VANの闇というか、まあ、時代の仕業なんだけど、そんなのを目の当たりにしてちょっと余分な時間を掛けてしまった。もうあまり気が進まない特徴量の追加なんですが、そろそろ今回を一旦区切りとしてってか、そもそもGWが本日までなので、朝から晩までコーディングな生活は終わりです。
まあ、そんなギリギリのGW最終日に新たな特徴量追加してCSV出力、まずはAutoMLで6時間学習して得た\(R^{2}\)値は0.2543で、
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 26.11% (78.16%) |
24.99% (76.18%) |
26.97% (79.00%) |
30.00% (94.58%) |
34.70% (79.73%) |
28.06% (77.38%) |
24.68% (78.28%) |
55.66% (76.40%) |
| 複勝 | 58.12% (83.90%) |
57.67% (83.90%) |
57.90% (82.89%) |
67.50% (97.75%) |
70.78% (90.82%) |
63.29% (84.97%) |
55.25% (82.92%) |
88.57% (81.08%) |
| 枠連 | 14.05% (74.37%) |
12.85% (73.46%) |
14.42% (72.90%) |
25.25% (110.81%) |
-- (--) |
16.44% (76.71%) |
12.36% (68.88%) |
30.14% (77.34%) |
| 馬連 | 11.00% (68.10%) |
10.18% (62.04%) |
11.42% (73.83%) |
16.67% (74.92%) |
22.83% (72.51%) |
13.23% (69.79%) |
9.19% (67.14%) |
23.88% (68.25%) |
| ワイド | 25.33% (78.87%) |
25.10% (75.91%) |
25.15% (81.42%) |
30.83% (85.67%) |
45.21% (83.20%) |
30.04% (77.53%) |
21.96% (78.93%) |
46.80% (76.69%) |
| 馬単 | 6.11% (68.47%) |
5.39% (59.09%) |
6.50% (76.47%) |
10.83% (90.67%) |
10.96% (72.37%) |
7.05% (69.59%) |
5.36% (67.74%) |
23.88% (65.52%) |
| 三連複 | 6.22% (72.57%) |
7.10% (76.59%) |
5.47% (70.10%) |
4.17% (49.92%) |
16.44% (71.42%) |
8.28% (75.13%) |
4.61% (71.83%) |
16.58% (68.21%) |
| 三連単 | 1.74% (95.18%) |
1.95% (116.29%) |
1.58% (78.37%) |
0.83% (28.75%) |
4.11% (160.68%) |
2.60% (120.27%) |
1.24% (80.91%) |
16.58% (65.00%) |
| 総合 | 59.28% (77.50%) |
58.97% (78.03%) |
58.87% (76.89%) |
69.17% (78.42%) |
74.89% (90.10%) |
64.40% (81.42%) |
56.16% (74.58%) |
88.86% (68.59%) |
昨年を検証してみるとかなり頑張ってはいるんですが、もう一つ上に行ききれない。今はModel Builderで24時間学習させてるので、明日仕事終わった後の結果待ちです。
追記 2026.5.6 20:02
Model Builderの24時間学習で得たのは\(R^{2}\)値0.2651で、
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 23.13% (80.47%) |
22.20% (75.14%) |
24.18% (86.76%) |
21.67% (69.33%) |
31.51% (80.50%) |
25.46% (90.14%) |
21.59% (77.25%) |
51.61% (75.55%) |
| 複勝 | 54.15% (86.83%) |
54.35% (86.29%) |
53.58% (87.33%) |
59.17% (87.50%) |
68.04% (90.91%) |
60.07% (92.22%) |
50.93% (84.66%) |
87.26% (81.26%) |
| 枠連 | 12.30% (75.10%) |
11.50% (70.97%) |
12.45% (75.77%) |
21.21% (123.33%) |
-- (--) |
13.97% (70.52%) |
10.96% (71.86%) |
26.64% (79.08%) |
| 馬連 | 9.09% (61.55%) |
8.29% (53.17%) |
9.54% (67.01%) |
14.17% (104.67%) |
16.89% (56.12%) |
10.75% (62.56%) |
7.83% (61.71%) |
20.69% (69.63%) |
| ワイド | 22.17% (80.09%) |
22.20% (74.79%) |
21.63% (84.06%) |
29.17% (100.17%) |
41.55% (80.55%) |
27.19% (82.01%) |
18.75% (79.41%) |
42.00% (76.43%) |
| 馬単 | 4.37% (53.58%) |
3.67% (41.27%) |
5.04% (60.76%) |
5.00% (128.42%) |
6.85% (37.53%) |
4.94% (61.03%) |
3.96% (52.55%) |
20.69% (67.70%) |
| 三連複 | 5.56% (67.63%) |
6.57% (71.80%) |
4.50% (56.82%) |
5.83% (157.25%) |
18.26% (97.03%) |
7.79% (86.60%) |
3.67% (58.65%) |
14.65% (63.61%) |
| 三連単 | 1.10% (75.90%) |
1.07% (56.85%) |
1.15% (53.07%) |
0.83% (657.25%) |
2.28% (34.61%) |
1.48% (146.45%) |
0.87% (56.11%) |
14.65% (60.59%) |
| 総合 | 55.22% (72.61%) |
55.60% (66.19%) |
54.43% (71.42%) |
60.83% (179.72%) |
73.06% (68.18%) |
60.82% (86.44%) |
51.75% (67.78%) |
87.55% (66.42%) |
という感じ。妙に障害が得意?(笑)
追記 2026.5.8 18:47
過去走には1～4コーナーの順位を入れてます。Copilot曰く、これもノイズなので例えば3コーナーのみとか、4コーナーのみを試してみてって事で、AutoMLで4コーナーのみを試すと\(R^{2}\)値が0.2604とかで最高値になるもモデルファイルが86.3MBでロード時にエラーになる使えない奴だったけど、Model Builderで同様の学習させるとこちらは逆に\(R^{2}\)値が0.2589と落ち込んで
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 24.11% (82.15%) |
22.32% (75.90%) |
26.00% (89.96%) |
23.33% (62.92%) |
33.79% (90.41%) |
25.96% (85.78%) |
22.62% (80.19%) |
52.56% (77.37%) |
| 複勝 | 55.14% (85.97%) |
54.77% (85.35%) |
55.22% (86.76%) |
59.17% (84.00%) |
67.12% (89.45%) |
60.82% (90.23%) |
52.16% (84.24%) |
87.15% (82.44%) |
| 枠連 | 12.26% (71.10%) |
11.07% (68.42%) |
12.90% (72.69%) |
19.19% (84.04%) |
-- (--) |
14.09% (64.03%) |
10.88% (68.95%) |
26.74% (73.56%) |
| 馬連 | 9.46% (59.30%) |
8.70% (57.16%) |
9.84% (60.47%) |
15.00% (73.50%) |
21.46% (70.41%) |
11.12% (57.70%) |
7.83% (58.83%) |
21.13% (66.52%) |
| ワイド | 22.95% (81.59%) |
23.62% (82.99%) |
21.93% (79.90%) |
27.50% (85.17%) |
46.58% (88.81%) |
27.56% (78.41%) |
19.28% (82.00%) |
43.79% (81.04%) |
| 馬単 | 4.52% (49.22%) |
3.43% (38.52%) |
5.53% (60.40%) |
5.83% (46.58%) |
9.13% (54.11%) |
4.82% (50.48%) |
4.00% (48.36%) |
21.13% (64.34%) |
| 三連複 | 6.05% (70.07%) |
6.63% (57.52%) |
5.41% (74.63%) |
6.67% (184.25%) |
19.18% (87.17%) |
9.02% (95.72%) |
3.87% (59.98%) |
14.85% (66.43%) |
| 三連単 | 1.39% (55.93%) |
1.42% (46.56%) |
1.40% (68.92%) |
0.83% (9.58%) |
4.11% (86.71%) |
1.98% (68.86%) |
0.95% (48.84%) |
14.85% (62.15%) |
| 総合 | 56.41% (69.39%) |
56.07% (63.96%) |
56.44% (74.22%) |
60.83% (78.64%) |
73.06% (81.01%) |
61.56% (73.90%) |
53.19% (66.42%) |
87.53% (67.00%) |
となり数値とはうらはらに的中率は微々たるものだけど上がってますね。もう少しなにかが必要なのかもですが、出来る事は試していきます。
追記 2026.5.9 5:34
AutoMLで6時間またやってみると今回は\(R^{2}\)値は0.2579と低いけど、15.3MBなので
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 25.99% (77.15%) |
24.63% (73.13%) |
27.04% (80.51%) |
30.83% (87.58%) |
37.44% (86.99%) |
26.58% (72.56%) |
24.76% (77.79%) |
56.85% (77.55%) |
| 複勝 | 58.55% (84.36%) |
58.26% (84.85%) |
58.14% (83.57%) |
68.33% (88.42%) |
73.52% (92.88%) |
62.18% (82.18%) |
56.00% (84.32%) |
88.94% (82.32%) |
| 枠連 | 14.54% (76.72%) |
13.84% (76.11%) |
14.49% (75.58%) |
25.25% (103.54%) |
-- (--) |
16.07% (70.06%) |
13.10% (74.07%) |
30.63% (77.17%) |
| 馬連 | 11.32% (72.21%) |
10.66% (64.61%) |
11.48% (79.32%) |
18.33% (81.83%) |
21.46% (71.46%) |
12.98% (63.13%) |
9.85% (75.31%) |
25.04% (73.78%) |
| ワイド | 25.59% (79.15%) |
25.70% (76.91%) |
24.97% (81.20%) |
32.50% (82.67%) |
47.49% (87.99%) |
30.28% (78.79%) |
22.04% (78.48%) |
47.90% (79.95%) |
| 馬単 | 5.76% (66.34%) |
5.03% (53.56%) |
6.20% (78.46%) |
10.00% (79.83%) |
11.87% (77.49%) |
5.56% (43.42%) |
5.27% (72.97%) |
25.04% (71.96%) |
| 三連複 | 6.54% (74.03%) |
7.34% (79.52%) |
5.71% (68.30%) |
6.67% (75.25%) |
18.26% (71.92%) |
8.90% (83.21%) |
4.70% (71.16%) |
16.56% (73.38%) |
| 三連単 | 1.42% (59.84%) |
1.42% (55.89%) |
1.40% (62.51%) |
1.67% (78.75%) |
3.20% (44.38%) |
1.98% (62.48%) |
1.07% (60.35%) |
16.56% (72.78%) |
| 総合 | 59.62% (73.68%) |
59.44% (70.45%) |
59.11% (76.18%) |
69.17% (84.31%) |
78.08% (76.16%) |
63.04% (69.48%) |
56.82% (74.31%) |
89.18% (74.35%) |
と的中率が微増でした。これ、何回か回す必要がありそうです。が、一旦またModel Builderで24時間スタート。
追記 2026.5.10 6:44
やはりModel Builderには向かない様で\(R2{2}\)値は0.2571と更に低く、
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 23.59% (81.22%) |
22.91% (80.48%) |
23.82% (81.71%) |
30.00% (85.08%) |
32.88% (90.46%) |
26.82% (94.18%) |
21.67% (76.07%) |
52.01% (76.77%) |
| 複勝 | 54.21% (86.06%) |
54.71% (87.38%) |
53.10% (84.27%) |
62.50% (92.17%) |
66.67% (89.54%) |
60.07% (91.55%) |
51.13% (83.92%) |
86.95% (82.99%) |
| 枠連 | 12.30% (76.58%) |
11.50% (79.92%) |
12.64% (73.81%) |
18.18% (72.93%) |
-- (--) |
14.46% (72.37%) |
10.80% (73.12%) |
26.18% (76.96%) |
| 馬連 | 9.09% (62.79%) |
8.64% (63.30%) |
9.36% (62.55%) |
11.67% (58.92%) |
20.09% (72.42%) |
10.75% (62.46%) |
7.54% (62.03%) |
21.13% (74.27%) |
| ワイド | 22.14% (82.02%) |
22.74% (83.40%) |
21.26% (81.40%) |
25.83% (71.08%) |
44.75% (91.92%) |
26.95% (82.21%) |
18.50% (81.07%) |
43.15% (84.19%) |
| 馬単 | 4.69% (59.27%) |
4.20% (55.69%) |
5.10% (63.48%) |
5.83% (51.92%) |
10.05% (67.76%) |
5.32% (62.32%) |
4.00% (57.49%) |
21.13% (71.50%) |
| 三連複 | 5.85% (70.83%) |
6.99% (67.83%) |
4.74% (70.16%) |
5.00% (122.25%) |
21.46% (99.09%) |
8.03% (79.32%) |
3.71% (65.45%) |
14.79% (69.70%) |
| 三連単 | 1.04% (67.41%) |
1.12% (47.50%) |
0.97% (88.66%) |
0.83% (56.08%) |
4.11% (78.04%) |
1.36% (50.90%) |
0.66% (71.95%) |
14.79% (63.96%) |
| 総合 | 55.60% (73.23%) |
56.19% (70.49%) |
54.37% (75.77%) |
64.17% (76.38%) |
72.15% (84.17%) |
61.19% (74.41%) |
52.25% (71.39%) |
87.18% (69.90%) |
Model Builderでは元のままの方が無難と感じました。で、AutoMLで6時間×10回をスタートさせました。
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