またもAIに踊らされてる?(笑) AutoMLやModel Builderの限界?に達したかは別として、精度アップに苦労してるので別のアプローチに挑みました。またPython絡みです。まあ、現在のデータサイエンスの中核なのは間違いないのかもですが、AutoMLやModel Builderとは違うアプローチで最適なLightGBMのパラメータを探すもの? Optunaとかいうものを試し、そのパラメータ使ってLightGBMのモデルを作成して検証してみると
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 24.98% (74.49%) |
23.74% (70.17%) |
26.37% (79.27%) |
23.33% (69.67%) |
35.16% (84.38%) |
26.82% (75.62%) |
23.44% (73.21%) |
54.70% (76.27%) |
| 複勝 | 56.93% (82.66%) |
55.77% (81.05%) |
57.59% (83.87%) |
64.17% (88.58%) |
67.58% (84.84%) |
61.93% (82.29%) |
54.31% (82.58%) |
88.08% (81.13%) |
| 枠連 | 13.53% (70.96%) |
12.56% (68.74%) |
13.66% (70.17%) |
25.25% (115.25%) |
-- (--) |
16.07% (74.36%) |
11.83% (65.32%) |
29.04% (75.23%) |
| 馬連 | 10.33% (62.09%) |
9.71% (54.96%) |
10.45% (67.31%) |
17.50% (90.83%) |
23.29% (70.32%) |
12.73% (68.03%) |
8.36% (59.37%) |
23.53% (71.11%) |
| ワイド | 24.31% (75.44%) |
23.68% (68.80%) |
24.61% (82.36%) |
29.17% (73.83%) |
47.03% (85.39%) |
29.05% (77.35%) |
20.68% (73.90%) |
45.82% (76.78%) |
| 馬単 | 5.50% (58.72%) |
4.97% (48.41%) |
5.83% (67.15%) |
8.33% (88.33%) |
14.16% (88.58%) |
6.18% (55.55%) |
4.49% (57.09%) |
23.53% (69.60%) |
| 三連複 | 6.14% (85.96%) |
6.63% (61.22%) |
5.65% (113.10%) |
5.83% (61.83%) |
15.07% (61.42%) |
9.02% (86.51%) |
4.37% (87.99%) |
16.03% (68.44%) |
| 三連単 | 1.48% (48.13%) |
1.78% (48.33%) |
1.22% (49.78%) |
0.83% (22.67%) |
5.02% (85.89%) |
2.22% (57.97%) |
0.91% (41.44%) |
16.03% (65.94%) |
| 総合 | 58.35% (69.79%) |
57.31% (62.58%) |
58.75% (76.66%) |
67.50% (75.51%) |
73.52% (80.12%) |
63.04% (72.21%) |
55.42% (67.61%) |
88.39% (69.65%) |
こんな感じでした。これRMSEとか\(R^{2}\)値とか不明なんだけど^^; ざっくりとした話、50回が1時間程度で終わって得たパラメータ使ってモデル作成自体は1分程度。次は200回または500回。200回で4時間程度、500回は10時間程度なんだが、ダービーデイにこんな事してるとはorz
追記 2026.5.31 12:13
200回で得たパラメータ使って作成したモデルの検証は
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 25.50% (76.73%) |
24.51% (75.65%) |
26.31% (77.11%) |
28.33% (86.67%) |
36.53% (88.22%) |
27.94% (82.37%) |
23.69% (73.82%) |
55.02% (77.50%) |
| 複勝 | 57.08% (82.30%) |
55.77% (80.96%) |
58.14% (83.84%) |
60.83% (80.00%) |
68.95% (84.38%) |
61.31% (81.97%) |
54.59% (82.22%) |
88.31% (81.92%) |
| 枠連 | 13.76% (76.47%) |
12.78% (70.54%) |
13.85% (77.16%) |
26.26% (149.90%) |
-- (--) |
16.56% (77.80%) |
11.95% (71.17%) |
29.79% (78.76%) |
| 馬連 | 10.56% (67.75%) |
9.83% (56.97%) |
10.81% (75.95%) |
17.50% (107.08%) |
22.83% (71.55%) |
13.35% (73.13%) |
8.53% (65.62%) |
23.76% (73.56%) |
| ワイド | 24.31% (75.79%) |
23.86% (71.06%) |
24.18% (79.82%) |
32.50% (87.08%) |
46.58% (84.38%) |
30.16% (79.09%) |
20.35% (73.92%) |
46.89% (77.18%) |
| 馬単 | 5.64% (65.11%) |
5.03% (54.04%) |
5.95% (73.54%) |
10.00% (105.25%) |
12.79% (81.32%) |
7.05% (69.46%) |
4.53% (62.20%) |
23.76% (70.63%) |
| 三連複 | 5.76% (61.08%) |
6.45% (58.09%) |
4.98% (62.32%) |
6.67% (86.17%) |
15.53% (58.49%) |
8.78% (85.97%) |
3.87% (53.02%) |
16.32% (68.41%) |
| 三連単 | 1.19% (48.00%) |
1.42% (57.93%) |
1.03% (41.32%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.20% (30.18%) |
1.98% (88.89%) |
0.74% (35.98%) |
16.32% (66.14%) |
| 総合 | 58.38% (69.05%) |
57.31% (65.55%) |
59.11% (71.35%) |
63.33% (86.38%) |
74.43% (71.22%) |
61.93% (79.83%) |
55.75% (64.74%) |
88.54% (70.35%) |
確かに改善はしたかもだが、これではまだAutoMLを超えてないorz
追記 2026.5.31 22:13
500回で得たパラメータ使って作成したモデルの検証は
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 25.15% (75.90%) |
24.33% (73.64%) |
25.88% (77.84%) |
26.67% (81.33%) |
36.07% (92.56%) |
27.19% (76.55%) |
23.49% (74.19%) |
55.14% (76.69%) |
| 複勝 | 56.79% (82.29%) |
55.12% (79.72%) |
57.65% (84.11%) |
68.33% (93.42%) |
67.58% (83.79%) |
61.19% (81.25%) |
54.35% (82.50%) |
88.48% (81.27%) |
| 枠連 | 14.05% (76.90%) |
12.99% (74.23%) |
14.23% (74.88%) |
26.26% (146.97%) |
-- (--) |
16.69% (78.78%) |
12.28% (71.39%) |
29.23% (75.81%) |
| 馬連 | 10.74% (68.62%) |
9.89% (61.27%) |
11.12% (73.53%) |
17.50% (104.58%) |
21.92% (63.20%) |
12.98% (68.74%) |
8.98% (69.06%) |
23.53% (69.27%) |
| ワイド | 24.40% (75.32%) |
23.62% (69.53%) |
24.73% (80.54%) |
30.83% (85.17%) |
47.03% (86.16%) |
28.92% (73.62%) |
20.85% (74.91%) |
46.48% (75.74%) |
| 馬単 | 5.62% (62.07%) |
4.91% (46.65%) |
6.20% (76.47%) |
7.50% (81.50%) |
11.87% (70.37%) |
6.92% (60.04%) |
4.61% (61.99%) |
23.53% (68.64%) |
| 三連複 | 5.82% (62.30%) |
6.39% (50.95%) |
5.35% (74.18%) |
4.17% (59.00%) |
15.53% (61.92%) |
8.53% (66.75%) |
4.04% (60.85%) |
16.32% (67.70%) |
| 三連単 | 1.42% (49.77%) |
1.60% (51.82%) |
1.34% (51.30%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
4.57% (57.58%) |
2.72% (110.58%) |
0.70% (28.80%) |
16.32% (65.54%) |
| 総合 | 57.95% (69.04%) |
56.54% (63.25%) |
58.51% (74.10%) |
70.00% (80.03%) |
73.06% (73.65%) |
62.18% (77.04%) |
55.17% (65.46%) |
88.71% (69.16%) |
これも結局微妙なもので結果論的に言えば今週末も無駄な時間を過ごしたorz
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