随分と時間掛けて何度も何度もやってはいるのですが、思うなモデルが出ないです。RMSEの値だけが全てではないのですが、一応の目安だし、これまでの新馬戦では1.9636だったのですが、今回は1.9632
| 61R | 1点 | 芝(52R) | ダート(9R) | 8頭以下(17R) | 9～12頭(24R) | 13頭以上(20R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 14.75% (64.43%) |
15.38% (45.96%) |
11.11% (171.11%) |
17.65% (57.65%) |
20.83% (103.33%) |
5.00% (23.50%) |
54.10% (106.72%) |
| 複勝 | 47.54% (78.69%) |
48.08% (79.42%) |
44.44% (74.44%) |
47.06% (69.41%) |
54.17% (77.50%) |
40.00% (88.00%) |
90.16% (79.29%) |
| 枠連 | 0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
-- (--) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
10.81% (39.16%) |
| 馬連 | 3.28% (19.51%) |
3.85% (22.88%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
11.76% (70.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
11.48% (51.69%) |
| ワイド | 14.75% (50.16%) |
15.38% (35.77%) |
11.11% (133.33%) |
23.53% (44.71%) |
20.83% (95.83%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
39.34% (73.44%) |
| 馬単 | 3.28% (34.92%) |
3.85% (40.96%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
11.76% (125.29%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
11.48% (52.79%) |
| 三連複 | 6.56% (90.16%) |
5.77% (26.15%) |
11.11% (460.00%) |
11.76% (32.35%) |
8.33% (206.25%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
9.84% (34.51%) |
| 三連単 | 3.28% (97.38%) |
3.85% (114.23%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
11.76% (349.41%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
9.84% (45.14%) |
| 総合 | 47.54% (57.22%) |
48.08% (48.22%) |
44.44% (107.86%) |
47.06% (106.97%) |
54.17% (60.36%) |
40.00% (13.94%) |
90.16% (53.19%) |
決して納得はしてませんが、学習時間を変えたり、何度もトライしたりでこれが最適RMSEでした。これ、意外とライトなモデルで52.7MBです。悩むのは、RMSE 1.9662ながらヘビー級なモデルで210MBな
| 61R | 1点 | 芝(52R) | ダート(9R) | 8頭以下(17R) | 9～12頭(24R) | 13頭以上(20R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 24.59% (119.51%) |
25.00% (65.00%) |
22.22% (434.44%) |
35.29% (96.47%) |
20.83% (92.50%) |
20.00% (171.50%) |
60.66% (115.03%) |
| 複勝 | 54.10% (92.13%) |
53.85% (86.54%) |
55.56% (124.44%) |
58.82% (81.76%) |
45.83% (65.00%) |
60.00% (133.50%) |
90.16% (78.96%) |
| 枠連 | 8.11% (48.38%) |
10.00% (59.67%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
-- (--) |
8.33% (37.50%) |
5.00% (44.50%) |
18.92% (48.67%) |
| 馬連 | 8.20% (43.44%) |
9.62% (50.96%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
17.65% (80.00%) |
8.33% (53.75%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
19.67% (103.66%) |
| ワイド | 16.39% (33.93%) |
19.23% (39.81%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
29.41% (51.18%) |
20.83% (50.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
39.34% (67.70%) |
| 馬単 | 4.92% (44.92%) |
5.77% (52.69%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
11.76% (125.29%) |
4.17% (25.42%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
19.67% (101.48%) |
| 三連複 | 4.92% (22.30%) |
5.77% (26.15%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
11.76% (32.35%) |
4.17% (33.75%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
14.75% (122.34%) |
| 三連単 | 3.28% (97.38%) |
3.85% (114.23%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
11.76% (349.41%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
14.75% (169.40%) |
| 総合 | 54.10% (63.49%) |
53.85% (62.01%) |
55.56% (71.86%) |
58.82% (116.64%) |
45.83% (44.74%) |
60.00% (43.69%) |
90.16% (132.93%) |
とインパクトのある結果なんですが、これ、多分さらだではメモリ不足的なエラーで使えないかも^^; この検証はさらだ64でしてるので問題ないのですけどね。
通常用ではこれまでRMSE 1.3887とかでしたが、1.4未満が出ませんorz 先程終わったものがやっと1.4125で
| 515R | 1点 | 芝(280R) | ダート(217R) | 障害(18R) | 8頭以下(51R) | 9～12頭(148R) | 13頭以上(316R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 21.17% (76.52%) |
19.29% (72.14%) |
23.96% (85.35%) |
16.67% (38.33%) |
39.22% (91.57%) |
21.62% (74.93%) |
18.04% (74.84%) |
48.93% (75.59%) |
| 複勝 | 49.13% (81.86%) |
49.29% (83.96%) |
49.77% (81.43%) |
38.89% (54.44%) |
70.59% (97.45%) |
58.78% (99.32%) |
41.14% (71.17%) |
86.80% (85.55%) |
| 枠連 | 11.34% (87.94%) |
13.24% (109.59%) |
9.95% (69.60%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
-- (--) |
13.51% (65.68%) |
9.18% (89.46%) |
25.23% (90.30%) |
| 馬連 | 8.74% (65.59%) |
11.43% (79.32%) |
5.99% (53.32%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
27.45% (97.84%) |
8.78% (49.32%) |
5.70% (68.01%) |
20.78% (74.04%) |
| ワイド | 20.39% (71.96%) |
22.86% (74.00%) |
18.43% (73.78%) |
5.56% (18.33%) |
47.06% (93.73%) |
22.97% (73.58%) |
14.87% (67.69%) |
40.19% (88.60%) |
| 馬単 | 4.85% (66.37%) |
6.43% (77.32%) |
3.23% (57.74%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
17.65% (98.24%) |
3.38% (29.05%) |
3.48% (78.70%) |
20.78% (73.19%) |
| 三連複 | 6.80% (109.36%) |
8.21% (129.46%) |
5.07% (90.00%) |
5.56% (30.00%) |
17.65% (107.06%) |
6.76% (42.97%) |
5.06% (140.82%) |
14.37% (85.49%) |
| 三連単 | 0.97% (53.32%) |
1.43% (91.71%) |
0.46% (8.20%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.92% (39.22%) |
0.68% (6.22%) |
0.63% (77.66%) |
14.37% (92.14%) |
| 総合 | 51.46% (76.38%) |
51.79% (89.13%) |
52.07% (64.88%) |
38.89% (18.41%) |
72.55% (89.30%) |
62.16% (55.14%) |
43.04% (83.54%) |
87.18% (86.37%) |
この程度では本当に妥協したくないです。複勝率が50%超えないのが本当に納得がいかないですね。何となくなイメージとして単勝25%と複勝50%は超えたいかなぁってね。先週木曜日に仕事から戻った際に学習させてたのを忘れていてPCの電源ボタン押してしまった為にRMSEが不明なモデルなんですが
| 515R | 1点 | 芝(280R) | ダート(217R) | 障害(18R) | 8頭以下(51R) | 9～12頭(148R) | 13頭以上(316R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 20.00% (65.40%) |
18.57% (60.93%) |
22.58% (74.47%) |
11.11% (25.56%) |
39.22% (97.45%) |
16.22% (46.42%) |
18.67% (69.11%) |
49.13% (71.00%) |
| 複勝 | 50.49% (84.08%) |
51.43% (87.43%) |
49.77% (80.88%) |
44.44% (70.56%) |
66.67% (91.37%) |
56.08% (88.65%) |
45.25% (80.76%) |
84.08% (80.96%) |
| 枠連 | 11.81% (84.35%) |
12.79% (89.41%) |
10.95% (82.34%) |
8.33% (25.83%) |
-- (--) |
16.89% (84.39%) |
8.23% (75.79%) |
23.84% (88.18%) |
| 馬連 | 8.74% (85.59%) |
11.07% (83.64%) |
6.45% (95.21%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
23.53% (100.98%) |
10.81% (64.05%) |
5.38% (93.20%) |
20.97% (81.23%) |
| ワイド | 18.64% (71.15%) |
19.64% (59.25%) |
17.97% (89.40%) |
11.11% (36.11%) |
47.06% (92.94%) |
20.27% (54.32%) |
13.29% (75.51%) |
39.81% (86.56%) |
| 馬単 | 4.47% (61.65%) |
6.07% (75.57%) |
2.76% (48.80%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
21.57% (143.92%) |
2.03% (17.77%) |
2.85% (68.92%) |
20.97% (73.84%) |
| 三連複 | 5.24% (84.56%) |
6.43% (98.04%) |
3.69% (71.71%) |
5.56% (30.00%) |
13.73% (48.04%) |
6.08% (32.16%) |
3.48% (115.00%) |
15.53% (102.97%) |
| 三連単 | 0.78% (30.25%) |
0.71% (3.93%) |
0.92% (66.73%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.92% (39.22%) |
0.68% (5.95%) |
0.32% (40.19%) |
15.53% (107.40%) |
| 総合 | 52.82% (70.60%) |
53.93% (69.22%) |
52.07% (76.13%) |
44.44% (23.41%) |
70.59% (87.70%) |
60.14% (49.21%) |
46.52% (77.31%) |
84.47% (95.12%) |
こちらはそれでも複勝50%には届いてたりとかするので、やはり、もう少しだけトライしてみます。さらだの次期バージョンは2.3.7をリリースしようかと思っています。なんとか良いモデルが出る事に期待してみます。
追記 2025.8.31 16:31
ちょっと見落としてた。今回の学習でRMSE 1.3997ってのが出てたのですが、
| 515R | 1点 | 芝(280R) | ダート(217R) | 障害(18R) | 8頭以下(51R) | 9～12頭(148R) | 13頭以上(316R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 21.94% (75.51%) |
20.00% (62.43%) |
25.35% (95.44%) |
11.11% (38.89%) |
37.25% (79.02%) |
20.95% (62.64%) |
19.94% (80.98%) |
52.62% (81.51%) |
| 複勝 | 52.04% (85.01%) |
51.43% (84.79%) |
52.53% (86.04%) |
55.56% (76.11%) |
62.75% (85.10%) |
58.11% (86.55%) |
47.47% (84.27%) |
86.41% (82.66%) |
| 枠連 | 14.81% (118.01%) |
17.81% (151.32%) |
10.95% (79.60%) |
25.00% (153.33%) |
-- (--) |
21.62% (128.24%) |
10.13% (101.27%) |
23.38% (79.62%) |
| 馬連 | 11.26% (109.94%) |
13.57% (131.43%) |
8.29% (76.13%) |
11.11% (183.33%) |
19.61% (71.76%) |
15.54% (109.19%) |
7.91% (116.46%) |
20.78% (70.19%) |
| ワイド | 22.52% (93.86%) |
22.86% (89.39%) |
21.66% (96.87%) |
27.78% (127.22%) |
45.10% (88.63%) |
29.05% (105.07%) |
15.82% (89.46%) |
41.36% (79.22%) |
| 馬単 | 5.63% (113.51%) |
6.79% (142.64%) |
4.15% (74.01%) |
5.56% (136.67%) |
15.69% (89.61%) |
4.73% (90.54%) |
4.43% (128.13%) |
20.78% (69.70%) |
| 三連複 | 5.63% (91.18%) |
6.07% (95.00%) |
5.07% (91.34%) |
5.56% (30.00%) |
15.69% (69.22%) |
6.08% (55.74%) |
3.80% (111.33%) |
14.95% (85.67%) |
| 三連単 | 0.97% (129.81%) |
1.43% (193.39%) |
0.46% (58.53%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.92% (12.16%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.95% (209.59%) |
14.95% (73.77%) |
| 総合 | 53.01% (101.78%) |
52.50% (117.89%) |
53.46% (82.27%) |
55.56% (90.58%) |
62.75% (70.78%) |
60.81% (79.75%) |
47.78% (115.19%) |
86.80% (75.68%) |
さすがに1.4未満だしまずまずなのが出てたけど微妙かなぁ。これ112MBなのでさらだで使えるのかも分からないけど、まあ、もう少しやってみます。
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