ここの所取り組んでいた作業で、やっとその成果が確認出来る所まで来ました。学習し始めた時にはRMSEで異常な位低い値で何か間違えてたかって感じでしたが、それは単にこれまでの走破タイム予測と今回の相対タイム予測では単位というかスケールの違いからって話と、評価指数として今回の学習にはRMSEは不向きでR2(R二乗)の方がって事で、数日前に得たR2が0.20236ってモデルを検証してみる事にしました。
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 24.02% (73.77%) |
22.62% (72.50%) |
25.64% (75.87%) |
21.67% (62.75%) |
31.05% (67.81%) |
25.59% (71.67%) |
22.87% (75.01%) |
54.41% (77.27%) |
| 複勝 | 55.60% (82.30%) |
54.41% (82.02%) |
56.38% (82.79%) |
61.67% (79.67%) |
66.67% (83.38%) |
59.70% (79.70%) |
53.23% (83.07%) |
88.74% (81.70%) |
| 枠連 | 13.85% (78.71%) |
13.13% (78.99%) |
14.04% (76.93%) |
21.21% (102.93%) |
-- (--) |
16.19% (73.73%) |
12.20% (75.37%) |
28.46% (75.95%) |
| 馬連 | 10.54% (74.04%) |
9.83% (64.34%) |
11.00% (84.02%) |
14.17% (73.67%) |
22.83% (68.13%) |
12.36% (64.54%) |
8.82% (77.74%) |
22.63% (69.79%) |
| ワイド | 24.31% (78.97%) |
23.98% (76.47%) |
24.42% (81.91%) |
27.50% (73.83%) |
49.32% (91.42%) |
27.81% (70.94%) |
20.89% (80.53%) |
45.90% (74.49%) |
| 馬単 | 5.56% (76.16%) |
5.21% (61.61%) |
5.95% (93.82%) |
5.00% (38.92%) |
10.96% (50.09%) |
6.06% (53.78%) |
4.90% (85.98%) |
22.63% (68.88%) |
| 三連複 | 5.47% (52.80%) |
6.28% (49.05%) |
4.74% (57.46%) |
4.17% (41.83%) |
15.07% (67.12%) |
7.66% (54.94%) |
3.87% (50.80%) |
15.57% (65.68%) |
| 三連単 | 1.13% (31.77%) |
1.36% (29.53%) |
0.85% (33.05%) |
1.67% (45.75%) |
2.28% (22.74%) |
2.22% (61.53%) |
0.66% (22.66%) |
15.57% (59.30%) |
| 総合 | 56.90% (68.43%) |
55.95% (64.00%) |
57.41% (73.21%) |
63.33% (64.07%) |
72.60% (64.38%) |
60.57% (66.36%) |
54.26% (68.89%) |
89.03% (65.96%) |
これは的中率的には随分とい感じなんですが、まあ、欲を言えばもう少しって感じですね。ああ、これ、学習データが2004年～2024年なので2025年の1年通しての検証結果です。
回収率的に言えば、何も考えずに買い続けて儲けが出るのは障害の枠連のみと、寂しい結果なんですが、元々ワイドが基本だった馬券スタイルなので、そのワイドがやっとこのレベルまで的中率が上がった事が、今後に期待出来るかなぁと思ってます。
まだまだ始めたばかりの新たな学習モデルなので、ここから更に精度が上げられればと期待して、更に進めてみます。
追記 2026.4.24 18:50
更にCopilotにアドバイス頂きながら改良して得たR2が0.2514ってモデルで検証すると
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 25.04% (75.10%) |
23.74% (69.83%) |
25.82% (78.77%) |
32.50% (98.92%) |
35.62% (82.92%) |
27.56% (77.13%) |
23.24% (73.71%) |
55.86% (77.36%) |
| 複勝 | 56.85% (83.03%) |
55.18% (79.86%) |
58.02% (86.07%) |
64.17% (85.83%) |
70.32% (88.36%) |
61.56% (82.50%) |
54.06% (82.72%) |
89.09% (81.58%) |
| 枠連 | 13.21% (71.87%) |
12.63% (68.67%) |
13.02% (73.04%) |
24.24% (98.59%) |
-- (--) |
16.32% (68.21%) |
11.33% (68.52%) |
29.23% (76.79%) |
| 馬連 | 10.27% (64.71%) |
9.77% (57.81%) |
10.33% (71.25%) |
16.67% (72.08%) |
23.74% (75.11%) |
13.47% (70.98%) |
7.99% (61.68%) |
23.56% (68.88%) |
| ワイド | 23.88% (73.80%) |
24.10% (72.10%) |
23.09% (75.65%) |
31.67% (72.42%) |
51.60% (103.97%) |
30.28% (78.55%) |
19.24% (69.49%) |
46.45% (74.89%) |
| 馬単 | 5.59% (64.72%) |
5.33% (61.75%) |
5.53% (65.81%) |
10.00% (91.50%) |
14.61% (82.01%) |
7.29% (78.42%) |
4.20% (58.59%) |
23.56% (66.42%) |
| 三連複 | 5.99% (77.25%) |
6.93% (72.99%) |
5.16% (84.20%) |
4.17% (41.83%) |
15.53% (79.41%) |
8.28% (69.42%) |
4.37% (79.66%) |
16.56% (72.36%) |
| 三連単 | 1.39% (80.25%) |
1.36% (64.52%) |
1.46% (97.84%) |
0.83% (60.42%) |
2.28% (28.31%) |
2.60% (126.07%) |
0.91% (69.67%) |
16.56% (65.89%) |
| 総合 | 58.03% (73.87%) |
56.78% (68.44%) |
58.81% (79.11%) |
65.00% (77.23%) |
75.80% (77.16%) |
61.93% (81.41%) |
55.13% (70.51%) |
89.49% (69.47%) |
って感じで、確実に改善してきてますね。ただ、じぶんの好みのワイドの的中率が1点だと下がったのが少し気にはなるけど、まだまだ、これからだと期待して進めます。
追記 2026.4.25
幻になるR2 0.2554なモデルが今日出たんですが、実質記念に検証しただけで既に最新バージョンでは更新続けてたので使えません(笑)
| 3,455R | 1点 | 芝(1,689R) | ダート(1,646R) | 障害(120R) | 8頭以下(219R) | 9～12頭(809R) | 13頭以上(2,427R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 26.28% (78.71%) |
25.75% (78.00%) |
26.73% (80.26%) |
27.50% (67.50%) |
35.62% (82.88%) |
27.44% (74.14%) |
25.05% (79.86%) |
55.98% (76.74%) |
| 複勝 | 58.00% (83.30%) |
57.49% (83.27%) |
57.96% (83.08%) |
65.83% (86.67%) |
71.23% (89.73%) |
62.30% (82.60%) |
55.38% (82.95%) |
88.65% (80.59%) |
| 枠連 | 14.54% (76.89%) |
14.34% (77.91%) |
13.98% (73.60%) |
26.26% (114.75%) |
-- (--) |
17.68% (77.70%) |
12.57% (71.75%) |
30.27% (78.53%) |
| 馬連 | 11.20% (70.70%) |
10.95% (67.67%) |
10.87% (72.45%) |
19.17% (89.25%) |
22.83% (74.89%) |
14.34% (70.90%) |
9.11% (70.25%) |
24.17% (71.74%) |
| ワイド | 25.99% (82.35%) |
26.29% (80.62%) |
25.27% (84.03%) |
31.67% (83.58%) |
50.23% (98.36%) |
32.26% (90.43%) |
21.71% (78.21%) |
47.00% (74.81%) |
| 馬単 | 5.96% (71.12%) |
5.68% (69.28%) |
5.83% (70.81%) |
11.67% (101.33%) |
13.24% (86.16%) |
7.42% (64.10%) |
4.82% (72.11%) |
24.17% (70.27%) |
| 三連複 | 5.99% (64.30%) |
7.10% (70.89%) |
5.10% (61.04%) |
2.50% (16.08%) |
16.44% (81.83%) |
7.66% (56.92%) |
4.49% (65.18%) |
16.56% (68.83%) |
| 三連単 | 1.22% (30.13%) |
1.48% (37.36%) |
0.91% (21.77%) |
1.67% (43.17%) |
4.11% (59.82%) |
1.85% (39.63%) |
0.74% (24.29%) |
16.56% (64.64%) |
| 総合 | 59.42% (69.59%) |
59.03% (70.47%) |
59.23% (68.35%) |
67.50% (74.41%) |
76.71% (81.95%) |
63.29% (69.55%) |
56.57% (68.07%) |
89.00% (69.20%) |
これ以上のものがこの後のバージョンで出てくれる事に期待してます。
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