そろそろ新バージョンの更新申請に向けてモデルの選定をと考えてます。現時点自分が使っている36000_16788は
| 265R | 1点 | 芝(176R) | ダート(89R) | 8頭以下(26R) | 9～12頭(73R) | 13頭以上(166R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 20.00% (77.13%) |
23.30% (93.41%) |
13.48% (44.94%) |
30.77% (80.38%) |
20.55% (62.88%) |
18.07% (82.89%) |
45.66% (73.75%) |
| 複勝 | 47.55% (79.32%) |
52.84% (88.41%) |
37.08% (61.35%) |
61.54% (78.46%) |
47.95% (85.21%) |
45.18% (76.87%) |
81.13% (76.54%) |
| 枠連 | 9.05% (79.19%) |
10.95% (100.58%) |
5.95% (44.29%) |
-- (--) |
6.85% (86.71%) |
9.04% (67.29%) |
22.17% (70.48%) |
| 馬連 | 6.79% (122.68%) |
8.52% (141.36%) |
3.37% (85.73%) |
11.54% (52.31%) |
4.11% (75.48%) |
7.23% (154.46%) |
18.11% (87.70%) |
| ワイド | 18.87% (92.23%) |
23.86% (106.65%) |
8.99% (63.71%) |
46.15% (77.31%) |
16.44% (70.00%) |
15.66% (104.34%) |
36.23% (75.85%) |
| 馬単 | 3.77% (163.74%) |
5.68% (246.53%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
2.74% (117.26%) |
4.82% (209.82%) |
18.11% (84.94%) |
| 三連複 | 4.15% (110.53%) |
4.55% (140.11%) |
3.37% (52.02%) |
15.38% (92.69%) |
4.11% (57.95%) |
2.41% (136.45%) |
11.70% (102.11%) |
| 三連単 | 0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
11.70% (79.86%) |
| 総合 | 48.30% (90.84%) |
53.98% (115.03%) |
37.08% (44.00%) |
69.23% (54.45%) |
47.95% (69.43%) |
45.18% (104.01%) |
81.13% (81.52%) |
あくまで芝よりなモデルだけど、根本的に三連単は全くダメ。これ、これまでの最適RMSEな36000_16720ですが、
| 265R | 1点 | 芝(176R) | ダート(89R) | 8頭以下(26R) | 9～12頭(73R) | 13頭以上(166R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 21.89% (95.62%) |
25.00% (114.77%) |
15.73% (57.75%) |
38.46% (87.31%) |
27.40% (93.70%) |
16.87% (97.77%) |
48.30% (97.08%) |
| 複勝 | 47.17% (85.43%) |
51.70% (84.83%) |
38.20% (86.63%) |
65.38% (82.69%) |
56.16% (83.56%) |
40.36% (86.69%) |
84.53% (89.06%) |
| 枠連 | 8.60% (57.10%) |
11.68% (81.68%) |
3.57% (17.02%) |
-- (--) |
8.22% (55.34%) |
7.83% (51.69%) |
21.27% (78.45%) |
| 馬連 | 5.28% (28.45%) |
6.25% (32.61%) |
3.37% (20.22%) |
7.69% (16.15%) |
5.48% (30.96%) |
4.82% (29.28%) |
18.49% (113.77%) |
| ワイド | 18.49% (108.23%) |
21.59% (72.95%) |
12.36% (177.98%) |
34.62% (61.15%) |
21.92% (78.77%) |
14.46% (128.55%) |
41.89% (103.61%) |
| 馬単 | 3.40% (35.21%) |
4.55% (47.67%) |
1.12% (10.56%) |
3.85% (13.85%) |
5.48% (52.05%) |
2.41% (31.14%) |
18.49% (125.50%) |
| 三連複 | 3.77% (63.32%) |
5.68% (95.34%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
15.38% (55.77%) |
4.11% (63.01%) |
1.81% (64.64%) |
13.21% (63.52%) |
| 三連単 | 0.75% (152.64%) |
1.14% (229.83%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
1.37% (61.23%) |
0.60% (216.75%) |
13.21% (56.47%) |
| 総合 | 49.43% (78.70%) |
55.11% (95.34%) |
38.20% (46.48%) |
69.23% (45.27%) |
58.90% (64.83%) |
42.17% (88.31%) |
84.53% (77.71%) |
微妙に的中率は良いものの回収率は劣る。参考までに現時点で公開しているモデルが
| 265R | 1点 | 芝(176R) | ダート(89R) | 8頭以下(26R) | 9～12頭(73R) | 13頭以上(166R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 17.36% (77.51%) |
17.61% (60.06%) |
16.85% (112.02%) |
34.62% (102.69%) |
16.44% (59.45%) |
15.06% (81.51%) |
45.66% (79.11%) |
| 複勝 | 44.53% (92.08%) |
46.59% (82.33%) |
40.45% (111.35%) |
57.69% (80.38%) |
45.21% (73.97%) |
42.17% (101.87%) |
83.77% (81.70%) |
| 枠連 | 8.60% (80.72%) |
11.68% (92.19%) |
3.57% (62.02%) |
-- (--) |
8.22% (33.42%) |
7.83% (92.77%) |
19.00% (60.81%) |
| 馬連 | 6.04% (67.32%) |
7.39% (58.98%) |
3.37% (83.82%) |
15.38% (58.85%) |
8.22% (40.68%) |
3.61% (80.36%) |
14.72% (60.33%) |
| ワイド | 12.08% (48.98%) |
15.91% (56.19%) |
4.49% (34.72%) |
34.62% (52.69%) |
16.44% (51.51%) |
6.63% (47.29%) |
31.70% (85.72%) |
| 馬単 | 2.26% (54.34%) |
2.84% (25.17%) |
1.12% (112.02%) |
7.69% (81.92%) |
2.74% (23.01%) |
1.20% (63.80%) |
14.72% (60.62%) |
| 三連複 | 4.15% (164.57%) |
5.68% (170.74%) |
1.12% (152.36%) |
19.23% (56.15%) |
4.11% (32.60%) |
1.81% (239.58%) |
11.70% (109.02%) |
| 三連単 | 1.13% (381.28%) |
1.14% (33.75%) |
1.12% (1,068.54%) |
7.69% (228.46%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.60% (572.89%) |
11.70% (115.41%) |
| 総合 | 45.66% (121.70%) |
48.30% (71.86%) |
40.45% (218.20%) |
65.38% (94.45%) |
45.21% (39.33%) |
42.77% (160.01%) |
84.15% (95.84%) |
パット見は回収率に目が行くが、的中率は悪く、検証中のログ見てると気が付くけど、年明けてから悪化してる感じ。ただ、前出の2つに比べ、芝・ダートの差がそれ程感じられない。これ、3600_19662だったりします。ああ、これ最初の数字が秒数で後の数字がRMSEです。
悩む中36000_16742は
| 265R | 1点 | 芝(176R) | ダート(89R) | 8頭以下(26R) | 9～12頭(73R) | 13頭以上(166R) | 多点 |
| 単勝 | 20.75% (68.53%) |
23.86% (80.23%) |
14.61% (45.39%) |
42.31% (92.69%) |
24.66% (67.26%) |
15.66% (65.30%) |
47.55% (68.20%) |
| 複勝 | 50.94% (83.13%) |
59.09% (98.64%) |
34.83% (52.47%) |
76.92% (118.46%) |
54.79% (92.88%) |
45.18% (73.31%) |
84.53% (81.01%) |
| 枠連 | 9.05% (69.10%) |
10.95% (84.89%) |
5.95% (43.33%) |
-- (--) |
8.22% (68.36%) |
8.43% (61.93%) |
23.53% (74.43%) |
| 馬連 | 7.17% (84.79%) |
9.09% (117.44%) |
3.37% (20.22%) |
19.23% (72.69%) |
8.22% (180.00%) |
4.82% (44.82%) |
19.25% (71.94%) |
| ワイド | 18.11% (70.79%) |
22.73% (86.82%) |
8.99% (39.10%) |
46.15% (77.31%) |
20.55% (88.63%) |
12.65% (61.93%) |
41.13% (79.67%) |
| 馬単 | 3.77% (64.64%) |
5.11% (91.99%) |
1.12% (10.56%) |
11.54% (43.46%) |
5.48% (180.27%) |
1.81% (17.11%) |
19.25% (65.11%) |
| 三連複 | 3.77% (40.11%) |
5.11% (47.73%) |
1.12% (25.06%) |
15.38% (41.15%) |
4.11% (55.21%) |
1.81% (33.31%) |
14.72% (230.01%) |
| 三連単 | 0.38% (2.79%) |
0.57% (4.20%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
3.85% (28.46%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
0.00% (0.00%) |
14.72% (348.02%) |
| 総合 | 52.08% (60.30%) |
59.66% (76.25%) |
37.08% (29.42%) |
76.92% (67.75%) |
54.79% (91.58%) |
46.99% (44.71%) |
84.53% (222.12%) |
地味だけど的中率は、まあ、特にってか芝しか良くないんだけどね^^; ただ、ふと、ここまでの検証結果見ててダートより芝の方が倍近くレースがある。これ、学習に何らかの影響があっての結果かもです。
偏りは目をつぶって36000_16720で行くのが良いのかなぁと思ってます。
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