納得出来るまで

限られた時間で作業してます。今晩もこれから夜勤です。

ひたすらLightGBMで突き進んでみてます。新馬戦CKは200回以上はやりました。最適RMSEは1.6057で

52R	1点	芝(34R)	ダート(18R)	8頭以下(0R)	9～12頭(9R)	13頭以上(43R)	多点
単勝	30.77% (79.23%)	35.29% (97.06%)	22.22% (45.56%)	-- (--)	44.44% (86.67%)	27.91% (77.67%)	57.69% (72.69%)
複勝	48.08% (69.81%)	52.94% (76.18%)	38.89% (57.78%)	-- (--)	44.44% (51.11%)	48.84% (73.72%)	86.54% (64.81%)
枠連	7.69% (64.62%)	8.82% (69.12%)	5.56% (56.11%)	-- (--)	0.00% (0.00%)	9.30% (78.14%)	25.00% (81.60%)
馬連	5.77% (125.96%)	8.82% (192.65%)	0.00% (0.00%)	-- (--)	0.00% (0.00%)	6.98% (152.33%)	13.46% (61.73%)
ワイド	7.69% (43.27%)	8.82% (55.00%)	5.56% (21.11%)	-- (--)	0.00% (0.00%)	9.30% (52.33%)	21.15% (43.14%)
馬単	1.92% (135.96%)	2.94% (207.94%)	0.00% (0.00%)	-- (--)	0.00% (0.00%)	2.33% (164.42%)	13.46% (53.62%)
三連複	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	-- (--)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	1.92% (9.76%)
三連単	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	-- (--)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	1.92% (4.17%)
総合	50.00% (64.86%)	52.94% (87.24%)	44.44% (22.57%)	-- (--)	44.44% (17.22%)	51.16% (74.83%)	86.54% (28.99%)

1.6の壁を突き抜けてほしいけど、取敢えず通常用CKに作業進めてます。新馬戦は1回1分程度だし、360回でも6時間って計算ですが、通常用CKは大体1時間/回なんです。いや、かなりの回数してました。で、今回の新馬戦CKの後に100回スタートさせて今30回目辺りです。つまり24時間はゆうに超えてます。こちらは途中ですが最適RMSE 1.3732が出てますが、これまでのだと1.3677ってのもあるので微妙ですが

307R	1点	芝(139R)	ダート(153R)	障害(15R)	8頭以下(46R)	9～12頭(111R)	13頭以上(150R)	多点
単勝	22.48% (64.85%)	23.74% (68.13%)	20.26% (50.59%)	33.33% (180.00%)	32.61% (107.17%)	30.63% (77.84%)	13.33% (42.27%)	51.79% (76.93%)
複勝	50.49% (73.91%)	52.52% (79.42%)	48.37% (66.93%)	53.33% (94.00%)	63.04% (83.70%)	59.46% (84.23%)	40.00% (63.27%)	86.97% (78.74%)
枠連	16.33% (100.37%)	18.81% (138.71%)	14.60% (75.47%)	14.29% (34.29%)	-- (--)	18.92% (106.04%)	12.67% (85.47%)	25.31% (63.62%)
馬連	11.40% (90.26%)	12.23% (95.18%)	9.80% (70.26%)	20.00% (248.67%)	21.74% (157.83%)	14.41% (94.23%)	6.00% (66.60%)	21.50% (57.58%)
ワイド	25.08% (93.88%)	28.06% (121.51%)	22.22% (68.63%)	26.67% (95.33%)	52.17% (129.78%)	30.63% (85.50%)	12.67% (89.07%)	41.69% (79.69%)
馬単	6.84% (85.08%)	6.47% (70.29%)	5.88% (35.62%)	20.00% (726.67%)	15.22% (305.43%)	9.01% (59.37%)	2.67% (36.53%)	21.50% (58.59%)
三連複	7.17% (90.23%)	9.35% (98.92%)	5.23% (86.34%)	6.67% (49.33%)	13.04% (30.43%)	9.01% (72.43%)	4.00% (121.73%)	16.94% (68.40%)
三連単	1.30% (19.80%)	1.44% (14.32%)	0.65% (12.48%)	6.67% (145.33%)	2.17% (14.13%)	2.70% (48.92%)	0.00% (0.00%)	16.94% (70.03%)
総合	52.77% (76.70%)	54.68% (83.94%)	50.98% (58.06%)	53.33% (208.30%)	67.39% (118.35%)	60.36% (78.57%)	42.67% (63.12%)	86.97% (68.97%)

100回終わるまでに良いものが出て欲しいですが、まっ、それはまだ70時間後って今週末終わってるorz ここらで良い馬券当てて軍資金出来たらPC新調して最新最強CPUでガンガン学習させたらもう少し良いものが...とかねぇ(笑)

Microsoft Rewards 16回目

以前は出来てなかった自動引き換えですが、今回は行けました。44日での達成です。前回と全く同じでした。このペースだと8回/年貰える感じなので3,200円分のamazonギフト券になるのでまあ継続しない手はないですね。

9月末までの学習データで

相変わらずイマイチなので学習データを9月末までにして新馬戦CKの最適RMSE 1.6161を得て10月で検証すると

42R	1点	芝(27R)	ダート(15R)	8頭以下(0R)	9～12頭(6R)	13頭以上(36R)	多点
単勝	23.81% (89.29%)	18.52% (92.22%)	33.33% (84.00%)	-- (--)	16.67% (23.33%)	25.00% (100.28%)	61.90% (79.84%)
複勝	50.00% (97.62%)	44.44% (98.89%)	60.00% (95.33%)	-- (--)	16.67% (18.33%)	55.56% (110.83%)	83.33% (68.97%)
枠連	7.14% (66.67%)	11.11% (103.70%)	0.00% (0.00%)	-- (--)	0.00% (0.00%)	8.33% (77.78%)	7.14% (53.83%)
馬連	4.76% (77.86%)	7.41% (121.11%)	0.00% (0.00%)	-- (--)	0.00% (0.00%)	5.56% (90.83%)	16.67% (61.11%)
ワイド	9.52% (46.90%)	11.11% (64.81%)	6.67% (14.67%)	-- (--)	0.00% (0.00%)	11.11% (54.72%)	30.95% (67.38%)
馬単	2.38% (126.90%)	3.70% (197.41%)	0.00% (0.00%)	-- (--)	0.00% (0.00%)	2.78% (148.06%)	16.67% (65.75%)
三連複	2.38% (161.90%)	3.70% (251.85%)	0.00% (0.00%)	-- (--)	0.00% (0.00%)	2.78% (188.89%)	7.14% (56.73%)
三連単	2.38% (965.00%)	3.70% (1,501.11%)	0.00% (0.00%)	-- (--)	0.00% (0.00%)	2.78% (1,125.83%)	7.14% (60.27%)
総合	50.00% (204.02%)	44.44% (303.89%)	60.00% (24.25%)	-- (--)	16.67% (5.21%)	55.56% (237.15%)	83.33% (62.50%)

こんなでした。まっ、たまたま大きいのヒットしてるので回収率は良い感じなんですが、的中率もほどほどかな? 通常用CKの最適RMSE 1.3893がここまでの出てますが、まだ途中でこの後もっと良いものが出るかもですが、

246R	1点	芝(111R)	ダート(123R)	障害(12R)	8頭以下(35R)	9～12頭(95R)	13頭以上(116R)	多点
単勝	21.54% (56.38%)	23.42% (64.23%)	19.51% (49.92%)	25.00% (50.00%)	22.86% (46.86%)	28.42% (61.89%)	15.52% (54.74%)	48.78% (63.66%)
複勝	50.81% (69.27%)	49.55% (70.45%)	52.03% (69.02%)	50.00% (60.83%)	57.14% (64.86%)	54.74% (69.89%)	45.69% (70.09%)	85.37% (74.77%)
枠連	17.68% (92.88%)	17.50% (107.50%)	18.02% (86.04%)	14.29% (34.29%)	-- (--)	20.00% (98.00%)	13.79% (78.28%)	29.80% (72.45%)
馬連	13.41% (72.07%)	13.51% (86.22%)	13.01% (62.11%)	16.67% (43.33%)	28.57% (100.86%)	14.74% (87.16%)	7.76% (51.03%)	23.17% (65.93%)
ワイド	25.61% (77.60%)	23.42% (61.98%)	27.64% (93.09%)	25.00% (63.33%)	40.00% (67.43%)	30.53% (80.32%)	17.24% (78.45%)	42.68% (70.07%)
馬単	5.69% (60.49%)	4.50% (64.50%)	6.50% (58.62%)	8.33% (42.50%)	11.43% (90.00%)	7.37% (73.89%)	2.59% (40.60%)	23.17% (59.61%)
三連複	5.69% (80.33%)	6.31% (96.49%)	4.88% (67.56%)	8.33% (61.67%)	17.14% (58.29%)	6.32% (93.37%)	1.72% (76.29%)	13.01% (48.42%)
三連単	2.44% (118.94%)	2.70% (193.24%)	1.63% (45.77%)	8.33% (181.67%)	5.71% (93.14%)	3.16% (82.21%)	0.86% (156.81%)	13.01% (43.03%)
総合	53.25% (78.14%)	54.05% (92.56%)	52.85% (66.28%)	50.00% (69.01%)	60.00% (74.49%)	56.84% (80.84%)	48.28% (75.79%)	85.37% (53.29%)

時間的にそろそろ本日分の購入しなきゃなので行ってみます😉

追記 2024.11.4
日付変わって朝方まで掛かった様ですがまあ終わってました。最適RMSE 1.3759は6月末までの1.3677には及ばないものの

246R	1点	芝(111R)	ダート(123R)	障害(12R)	8頭以下(35R)	9～12頭(95R)	13頭以上(116R)	多点
単勝	23.98% (71.87%)	25.23% (96.31%)	21.14% (48.21%)	41.67% (88.33%)	28.57% (63.71%)	27.37% (58.42%)	19.83% (85.34%)	51.22% (68.85%)
複勝	54.47% (84.55%)	54.05% (93.69%)	54.47% (77.15%)	58.33% (75.83%)	68.57% (90.29%)	56.84% (74.53%)	48.28% (91.03%)	90.24% (81.02%)
枠連	15.66% (94.14%)	15.00% (122.37%)	16.22% (77.57%)	14.29% (34.29%)	-- (--)	15.79% (65.05%)	13.79% (107.41%)	31.82% (78.69%)
馬連	13.41% (95.24%)	14.41% (150.72%)	12.20% (50.24%)	16.67% (43.33%)	28.57% (115.71%)	12.63% (53.68%)	9.48% (123.10%)	25.61% (69.32%)
ワイド	24.80% (78.41%)	24.32% (92.61%)	26.02% (70.81%)	16.67% (25.00%)	45.71% (89.71%)	25.26% (56.95%)	18.10% (92.59%)	45.12% (77.15%)
馬単	8.54% (108.25%)	8.11% (168.65%)	8.13% (57.97%)	16.67% (65.00%)	14.29% (44.00%)	8.42% (60.84%)	6.90% (166.47%)	25.61% (62.76%)
三連複	5.69% (56.42%)	5.41% (21.53%)	5.69% (87.40%)	8.33% (61.67%)	14.29% (47.71%)	7.37% (62.74%)	1.72% (53.88%)	14.63% (49.04%)
三連単	2.03% (43.66%)	2.70% (23.69%)	0.81% (48.21%)	8.33% (181.67%)	5.71% (53.14%)	3.16% (93.47%)	0.00% (0.00%)	14.63% (55.23%)
総合	55.28% (78.69%)	54.95% (95.25%)	55.28% (64.54%)	58.33% (73.96%)	68.57% (72.04%)	56.84% (65.71%)	50.00% (89.98%)	90.24% (61.45%)

どうかな?ワイドや三連単なんかが少し上のやつより低いのが気になるけど、こいつで順位用CSV出力して試してみます。

追記 2024.11.5 14:38
夜勤明け帰宅後順位予測フルCKの学習50回トライしてました。8時頃スタートして最適RMSE　 3.7124は10時位に出てまして、50回終わったのは少し前なのでほぼ後半は無駄でした。検証期間変えると比較しづらいですが、2024.10.1～2024.11.3にしちゃいました。

359R	1点	芝(173R)	ダート(171R)	障害(15R)	8頭以下(46R)	9～12頭(120R)	13頭以上(193R)	多点
単勝	23.12% (71.78%)	21.97% (73.29%)	23.39% (71.93%)	33.33% (52.67%)	17.39% (27.17%)	32.50% (81.17%)	18.65% (76.58%)	51.53% (77.78%)
複勝	54.60% (86.60%)	49.71% (78.67%)	58.48% (91.99%)	66.67% (116.67%)	54.35% (71.30%)	64.17% (90.33%)	48.70% (87.93%)	87.19% (80.35%)
枠連	9.76% (59.63%)	8.89% (62.74%)	9.03% (49.42%)	42.86% (225.71%)	-- (--)	10.83% (39.58%)	8.29% (67.15%)	25.93% (76.36%)
馬連	8.64% (65.01%)	8.67% (97.05%)	7.02% (27.95%)	26.67% (118.00%)	17.39% (50.43%)	10.00% (39.67%)	5.70% (84.25%)	23.40% (87.19%)
ワイド	21.73% (76.63%)	22.54% (88.27%)	19.30% (62.11%)	40.00% (108.00%)	45.65% (80.00%)	26.67% (66.67%)	12.95% (82.02%)	41.23% (80.84%)
馬単	3.90% (26.85%)	3.47% (33.12%)	2.34% (8.42%)	26.67% (164.67%)	10.87% (32.17%)	5.00% (31.92%)	1.55% (22.44%)	23.40% (81.28%)
三連複	5.85% (73.90%)	6.36% (63.41%)	5.26% (86.67%)	6.67% (49.33%)	15.22% (51.30%)	8.33% (116.92%)	2.07% (52.54%)	14.48% (68.45%)
三連単	0.84% (11.20%)	1.16% (10.64%)	0.00% (0.00%)	6.67% (145.33%)	2.17% (10.87%)	1.67% (29.33%)	0.00% (0.00%)	14.48% (66.34%)
総合	56.55% (58.94%)	51.45% (63.42%)	60.82% (49.82%)	66.67% (115.18%)	58.70% (46.18%)	65.00% (61.95%)	50.78% (59.11%)	87.47% (72.63%)

この辺りが現状の限界?障害レースは相変わらず良い成績なんですが、これはやはり頭数が限られている事が多く、コースも限られてるからなんだろうか?多分頭数的に9～12頭になる事が多いから単複の的中率は近いのかな?

もしかしたら、新馬戦からもう少しじっくりと育てる必要もあるかもなのでもう少しやりこみます。