2026/07/27

モデルサイズ

イテレーション数を2,500にするとモデルサイズが19MBとなりギリなサイズ。

NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 2500
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点

40回試して40回目にNDCG@10.7800 NDCG@3=0.7840

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 28.39%
(81.37%)		 27.83%
(82.88%)		 28.68%
(78.88%)		 32.50%
(94.25%)		 36.07%
(78.54%)		 30.16%
(85.50%)		 27.11%
(80.24%)		 58.29%
(78.05%)
複勝 59.39%
(84.34%)		 59.03%
(84.01%)		 59.11%
(84.20%)		 68.33%
(90.75%)		 71.23%
(86.35%)		 64.89%
(85.67%)		 56.49%
(83.71%)		 89.64%
(83.14%)
枠連 16.77%
(89.09%)		 16.82%
(98.36%)		 16.52%
(80.44%)		 20.20%
(94.65%)		 --
(--)		 17.80%
(83.39%)		 15.37%
(85.34%)		 31.44%
(78.54%)
馬連 13.11%
(88.48%)		 13.44%
(90.01%)		 12.76%
(88.63%)		 13.33%
(64.83%)		 26.03%
(72.51%)		 14.71%
(85.13%)		 11.41%
(91.04%)		 25.99%
(80.74%)
ワイド 27.70%
(87.61%)		 29.07%
(87.87%)		 26.25%
(88.58%)		 28.33%
(70.67%)		 49.77%
(80.18%)		 32.26%
(84.78%)		 24.19%
(89.23%)		 49.35%
(81.30%)
馬単 7.41%
(89.03%)		 7.28%
(89.39%)		 7.59%
(89.89%)		 6.67%
(72.17%)		 12.33%
(56.71%)		 8.28%
(96.58%)		 6.67%
(89.43%)		 25.99%
(78.73%)
三連複 6.37%
(73.77%)		 7.46%
(59.40%)		 5.22%
(89.62%)		 6.67%
(58.67%)		 18.26%
(62.65%)		 9.02%
(69.49%)		 4.41%
(76.20%)		 16.30%
(69.14%)
三連単 1.39%
(74.72%)		 1.66%
(46.94%)		 1.15%
(94.03%)		 0.83%
(200.75%)		 4.57%
(48.95%)		 2.22%
(79.41%)		 0.82%
(75.48%)		 16.30%
(64.41%)
総合 60.72%
(83.48%)		 60.51%
(79.47%)		 60.39%
(86.82%)		 68.33%
(93.31%)		 74.89%
(69.41%)		 65.51%
(83.74%)		 57.85%
(83.83%)		 89.90%
(71.36%)

このもう少し良い奴がイテレーション数2,000で出るパターンを探さなきゃです。

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2026/07/26

ゲリラ雷雨でPC飛んだ

やられたけど、まあ、これも仕方ない事なのでね。

NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.75乗に0～1000点

継続するしかないのでまた20回。7回目にNDCG@1=0.7800 NDCG@3=0.7837

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 27.67%
(79.35%)		 26.47%
(77.19%)		 28.43%
(80.13%)		 34.17%
(98.83%)		 36.07%
(78.08%)		 29.05%
(77.26%)		 26.45%
(80.16%)		 58.81%
(78.98%)
複勝 58.73%
(83.21%)		 57.79%
(81.73%)		 59.48%
(84.78%)		 61.67%
(82.50%)		 68.95%
(83.70%)		 64.52%
(84.45%)		 55.87%
(82.75%)		 89.44%
(82.82%)
枠連 15.80%
(78.04%)		 15.54%
(82.02%)		 15.57%
(73.01%)		 23.23%
(101.41%)		 --
(--)		 17.55%
(76.07%)		 14.22%
(73.75%)		 31.60%
(77.45%)
馬連 12.53%
(77.28%)		 12.73%
(76.29%)		 11.97%
(77.55%)		 17.50%
(87.33%)		 23.29%
(59.18%)		 15.08%
(82.08%)		 10.71%
(77.31%)		 26.08%
(74.51%)
ワイド 27.41%
(84.11%)		 28.30%
(83.21%)		 26.12%
(84.83%)		 32.50%
(86.83%)		 47.95%
(78.45%)		 33.50%
(88.69%)		 23.53%
(83.09%)		 49.61%
(80.64%)
馬単 6.63%
(68.18%)		 5.92%
(59.62%)		 6.99%
(73.87%)		 11.67%
(110.58%)		 10.96%
(45.71%)		 7.79%
(71.61%)		 5.85%
(69.06%)		 26.08%
(71.67%)
三連複 6.31%
(72.37%)		 7.22%
(64.72%)		 5.22%
(79.37%)		 8.33%
(84.17%)		 16.89%
(59.50%)		 8.41%
(67.06%)		 4.66%
(75.31%)		 16.85%
(71.91%)
三連単 1.13%
(39.04%)		 1.30%
(51.60%)		 1.03%
(29.00%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 3.20%
(29.32%)		 1.48%
(49.60%)		 0.82%
(36.40%)		 16.85%
(67.15%)
総合 59.80%
(72.62%)		 58.91%
(71.84%)		 60.57%
(72.82%)		 61.67%
(81.01%)		 72.15%
(61.99%)		 64.89%
(74.60%)		 56.98%
(72.23%)		 89.78%
(71.62%)

どれもこのレベル止まり。13回目のNDCG@1=0.7797 NDCG@3=0.7838

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 27.90%
(80.96%)		 27.89%
(83.82%)		 27.58%
(77.04%)		 32.50%
(94.67%)		 38.81%
(91.00%)		 29.30%
(85.01%)		 26.45%
(78.71%)		 58.29%
(78.79%)
複勝 58.76%
(84.32%)		 58.56%
(83.78%)		 58.75%
(85.13%)		 61.67%
(80.83%)		 71.23%
(88.08%)		 64.03%
(85.40%)		 55.87%
(83.62%)		 89.26%
(82.57%)
枠連 16.26%
(84.68%)		 16.04%
(89.26%)		 16.01%
(79.22%)		 23.23%
(106.16%)		 --
(--)		 17.92%
(82.60%)		 14.67%
(80.00%)		 31.57%
(79.41%)
馬連 12.94%
(84.81%)		 13.20%
(82.77%)		 12.27%
(86.80%)		 18.33%
(86.25%)		 25.11%
(66.99%)		 15.20%
(85.38%)		 11.08%
(86.23%)		 26.02%
(76.88%)
ワイド 27.32%
(87.48%)		 28.12%
(83.75%)		 26.18%
(91.77%)		 31.67%
(80.92%)		 49.32%
(79.09%)		 32.39%
(86.96%)		 23.65%
(88.41%)		 49.87%
(80.37%)
馬単 6.63%
(72.79%)		 6.45%
(69.86%)		 6.44%
(72.85%)		 11.67%
(113.25%)		 12.33%
(55.34%)		 7.42%
(82.63%)		 5.85%
(71.08%)		 26.02%
(73.88%)
三連複 6.05%
(71.27%)		 7.05%
(60.34%)		 5.10%
(85.43%)		 5.00%
(30.83%)		 17.81%
(63.56%)		 8.16%
(71.05%)		 4.29%
(72.04%)		 16.76%
(77.42%)
三連単 1.27%
(38.48%)		 1.66%
(50.76%)		 0.97%
(28.68%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 3.65%
(33.01%)		 1.73%
(42.53%)		 0.91%
(37.62%)		 16.76%
(70.97%)
総合 60.06%
(75.47%)		 59.92%
(75.25%)		 60.02%
(75.85%)		 62.50%
(73.40%)		 74.89%
(68.15%)		 64.65%
(77.69%)		 57.19%
(74.71%)		 89.61%
(74.45%)

まあ、指数的にも大差ないので結果的にも大差ないのは当然かな。

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特徴量の抽出率

まあ、これって以前は固定のままで随分と学習させてたんだけど、

NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.75
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点

20回と思って2回目でいきなりNDCG@1=0.7811 NDCG@3=0.7840

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 27.87%
(80.31%)		 27.41%
(82.18%)		 28.13%
(77.67%)		 30.83%
(90.08%)		 39.27%
(89.50%)		 29.05%
(82.87%)		 26.45%
(78.62%)		 58.21%
(78.21%)
複勝 59.22%
(85.04%)		 58.97%
(84.44%)		 59.23%
(85.68%)		 62.50%
(84.83%)		 71.69%
(89.13%)		 64.65%
(85.53%)		 56.28%
(84.52%)		 89.75%
(82.99%)
枠連 16.06%
(83.12%)		 16.18%
(87.59%)		 15.63%
(78.96%)		 21.21%
(85.76%)		 --
(--)		 18.17%
(78.20%)		 14.34%
(79.49%)		 31.60%
(77.23%)
馬連 12.68%
(81.79%)		 13.03%
(79.93%)		 12.15%
(84.91%)		 15.00%
(65.17%)		 25.57%
(69.36%)		 15.33%
(82.87%)		 10.63%
(82.55%)		 25.88%
(75.09%)
ワイド 26.98%
(83.73%)		 28.00%
(82.42%)		 25.70%
(85.87%)		 30.00%
(72.92%)		 49.77%
(83.33%)		 33.37%
(88.95%)		 22.79%
(82.03%)		 49.32%
(80.62%)
馬単 6.71%
(68.11%)		 6.28%
(64.29%)		 6.99%
(72.32%)		 9.17%
(64.25%)		 14.61%
(69.04%)		 7.79%
(76.71%)		 5.64%
(65.16%)		 25.88%
(72.21%)
三連複 6.34%
(77.46%)		 7.34%
(69.48%)		 5.35%
(87.29%)		 5.83%
(54.75%)		 17.81%
(60.09%)		 8.78%
(67.97%)		 4.49%
(82.18%)		 16.99%
(79.34%)
三連単 1.48%
(55.01%)		 2.01%
(75.01%)		 1.03%
(38.49%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 4.57%
(50.09%)		 2.35%
(63.61%)		 0.91%
(52.58%)		 16.99%
(74.16%)
総合 60.43%
(76.74%)		 60.33%
(77.97%)		 60.39%
(76.39%)		 62.50%
(64.25%)		 74.89%
(72.94%)		 65.27%
(78.34%)		 57.52%
(75.89%)		 90.07%
(75.76%)

なんか拍子抜けする程期待外れ(笑) まあ、まだ沢山残ってるので今後に期待。

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LightGbmRankingTrainer.Options

ランキングトレーナーのオプションを追加しました。さらなる精度向上をGeminiに相談しました。20回で試してます。

NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
FeatureFraction: 0.7
SubsampleFraction: 0.8
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点

4回目にNDCG@1=0.7796 NDCG@3=0.7834

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 28.22%
(81.20%)		 27.47%
(81.52%)		 28.55%
(79.77%)		 34.17%
(96.25%)		 38.81%
(89.59%)		 30.16%
(83.09%)		 26.62%
(79.81%)		 58.03%
(78.06%)
複勝 59.10%
(84.40%)		 58.97%
(83.90%)		 58.99%
(85.04%)		 62.50%
(82.75%)		 71.69%
(89.04%)		 64.89%
(85.49%)		 56.04%
(83.62%)		 89.46%
(82.70%)
枠連 16.16%
(83.66%)		 16.89%
(94.30%)		 15.18%
(73.26%)		 21.21%
(97.68%)		 --
(--)		 18.05%
(80.56%)		 14.50%
(79.39%)		 31.12%
(77.52%)
馬連 12.82%
(82.63%)		 13.38%
(84.11%)		 11.97%
(81.14%)		 16.67%
(82.25%)		 25.57%
(71.00%)		 15.08%
(81.69%)		 10.92%
(83.99%)		 25.70%
(73.74%)
ワイド 27.93%
(86.52%)		 29.01%
(84.65%)		 26.49%
(88.36%)		 32.50%
(87.50%)		 51.14%
(84.02%)		 33.25%
(86.01%)		 24.06%
(86.91%)		 49.49%
(79.21%)
馬単 6.66%
(68.93%)		 6.34%
(61.78%)		 6.74%
(74.27%)		 10.00%
(96.33%)		 13.70%
(69.13%)		 7.17%
(59.75%)		 5.85%
(71.97%)		 25.70%
(71.83%)
三連複 5.99%
(66.26%)		 6.87%
(57.77%)		 4.98%
(74.23%)		 7.50%
(76.25%)		 17.81%
(74.43%)		 8.41%
(63.71%)		 4.12%
(66.37%)		 16.67%
(74.23%)
三連単 1.27%
(37.80%)		 1.72%
(48.92%)		 0.91%
(29.15%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 5.48%
(73.01%)		 1.85%
(41.73%)		 0.70%
(33.32%)		 16.67%
(69.10%)
総合 60.26%
(73.79%)		 60.39%
(74.20%)		 59.96%
(73.15%)		 62.50%
(76.92%)		 75.80%
(78.60%)		 65.51%
(72.75%)		 57.11%
(73.17%)		 89.84%
(72.60%)

なかなか思うように精度が上がらない。13回目のNDCG@1=0.7795 NDCG@3=0.7831

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 28.08%
(81.59%)		 27.29%
(80.98%)		 28.43%
(80.13%)		 34.17%
(110.08%)		 38.36%
(88.36%)		 28.92%
(82.89%)		 26.86%
(80.54%)		 59.07%
(79.97%)
複勝 59.48%
(85.42%)		 59.03%
(84.55%)		 59.11%
(85.32%)		 70.83%
(99.00%)		 70.78%
(86.21%)		 65.27%
(86.66%)		 56.53%
(84.93%)		 89.73%
(83.10%)
枠連 16.77%
(89.63%)		 17.10%
(99.23%)		 16.07%
(80.32%)		 23.23%
(101.11%)		 --
(--)		 17.92%
(78.99%)		 15.33%
(87.49%)		 31.96%
(80.12%)
馬連 13.17%
(87.17%)		 13.97%
(91.47%)		 12.03%
(83.54%)		 17.50%
(76.42%)		 26.94%
(75.07%)		 15.57%
(84.82%)		 11.12%
(89.04%)		 26.48%
(82.58%)
ワイド 27.70%
(86.22%)		 29.25%
(87.12%)		 25.76%
(85.68%)		 32.50%
(81.00%)		 53.42%
(87.81%)		 32.39%
(83.39%)		 23.82%
(87.03%)		 50.19%
(81.46%)
馬単 7.00%
(79.85%)		 6.81%
(80.08%)		 7.05%
(78.80%)		 9.17%
(91.08%)		 15.53%
(77.21%)		 7.17%
(71.26%)		 6.18%
(82.95%)		 26.48%
(80.58%)
三連複 6.02%
(55.83%)		 6.93%
(52.97%)		 4.92%
(56.11%)		 8.33%
(92.42%)		 17.81%
(66.39%)		 8.28%
(63.04%)		 4.20%
(52.48%)		 16.85%
(69.63%)
三連単 1.30%
(36.00%)		 1.54%
(33.36%)		 1.15%
(41.33%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 4.57%
(49.68%)		 2.10%
(48.76%)		 0.74%
(30.51%)		 16.85%
(63.76%)
総合 60.81%
(75.02%)		 60.45%
(75.73%)		 60.45%
(73.87%)		 70.83%
(80.95%)		 74.89%
(75.82%)		 65.76%
(74.98%)		 57.89%
(74.37%)		 90.13%
(71.62%)

なんとなくNDCG@1も高いのが当然良いんだけど、NDCG@3が高い方が良い感じもする。

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あと少しが

昨晩は

NumberOfLeaves: 351
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 47
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点

10回目にNDCG@1=0.7794 NDCG@3=0.7830

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 28.13%
(81.70%)		 27.83%
(83.13%)		 28.25%
(79.59%)		 30.83%
(90.67%)		 37.44%
(84.84%)		 29.54%
(80.00%)		 26.82%
(81.99%)		 58.38%
(78.36%)
複勝 59.10%
(84.43%)		 59.44%
(84.91%)		 58.44%
(83.81%)		 63.33%
(86.08%)		 72.60%
(90.46%)		 63.66%
(83.03%)		 56.37%
(84.35%)		 89.84%
(82.98%)
枠連 16.45%
(88.01%)		 16.82%
(97.18%)		 15.88%
(80.20%)		 20.20%
(81.82%)		 --
(--)		 17.92%
(80.83%)		 14.92%
(84.82%)		 31.15%
(78.22%)
馬連 13.14%
(87.42%)		 13.74%
(90.29%)		 12.39%
(86.37%)		 15.00%
(61.50%)		 25.11%
(69.13%)		 15.20%
(82.99%)		 11.37%
(90.55%)		 25.96%
(74.59%)
ワイド 27.21%
(84.98%)		 28.12%
(84.16%)		 26.31%
(87.44%)		 26.67%
(62.83%)		 50.68%
(85.62%)		 31.40%
(80.82%)		 23.69%
(86.32%)		 49.78%
(79.06%)
馬単 7.09%
(80.80%)		 6.87%
(81.53%)		 7.11%
(80.79%)		 10.00%
(70.75%)		 11.87%
(57.40%)		 8.28%
(83.96%)		 6.26%
(81.87%)		 25.96%
(72.33%)
三連複 6.19%
(59.29%)		 6.93%
(53.03%)		 5.29%
(64.05%)		 8.33%
(82.00%)		 19.18%
(70.46%)		 8.28%
(59.72%)		 4.33%
(58.13%)		 16.50%
(80.59%)
三連単 1.39%
(48.96%)		 1.66%
(51.04%)		 1.22%
(50.40%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 3.65%
(38.26%)		 1.98%
(42.48%)		 0.99%
(52.08%)		 16.50%
(74.32%)
総合 60.38%
(76.80%)		 60.81%
(77.76%)		 59.66%
(76.56%)		 64.17%
(66.62%)		 76.71%
(70.88%)		 64.52%
(74.23%)		 57.52%
(77.51%)		 90.19%
(75.89%)

38回目にNDCG@1=0.7790 NDCG@3=0.7835

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 28.08%
(83.19%)		 27.53%
(82.80%)		 28.19%
(81.62%)		 34.17%
(110.08%)		 36.07%
(79.68%)		 30.16%
(88.13%)		 26.66%
(81.85%)		 58.38%
(78.53%)
複勝 59.04%
(85.05%)		 58.44%
(84.07%)		 59.36%
(85.96%)		 63.33%
(86.50%)		 69.86%
(87.21%)		 63.78%
(84.82%)		 56.49%
(84.94%)		 89.38%
(82.68%)
枠連 16.90%
(89.73%)		 16.75%
(95.18%)		 16.71%
(84.05%)		 22.22%
(102.42%)		 --
(--)		 18.42%
(82.36%)		 15.33%
(86.49%)		 32.25%
(82.46%)
馬連 13.17%
(88.36%)		 13.56%
(92.26%)		 12.52%
(85.18%)		 16.67%
(77.08%)		 24.20%
(74.20%)		 15.45%
(84.81%)		 11.41%
(90.82%)		 26.37%
(78.32%)
ワイド 27.18%
(84.79%)		 28.12%
(82.97%)		 26.00%
(87.24%)		 30.00%
(76.83%)		 50.23%
(83.93%)		 32.26%
(82.82%)		 23.40%
(85.53%)		 49.44%
(79.90%)
馬単 7.06%
(78.87%)		 6.81%
(76.47%)		 7.11%
(80.05%)		 10.00%
(96.33%)		 12.33%
(63.15%)		 7.79%
(76.61%)		 6.35%
(81.04%)		 26.37%
(75.48%)
三連複 6.37%
(75.54%)		 6.99%
(59.19%)		 5.59%
(91.39%)		 8.33%
(88.25%)		 16.44%
(54.93%)		 8.90%
(70.44%)		 4.61%
(79.09%)		 16.53%
(74.55%)
三連単 1.39%
(49.42%)		 1.54%
(44.23%)		 1.28%
(43.71%)		 0.83%
(200.75%)		 3.65%
(48.90%)		 1.98%
(68.11%)		 0.99%
(43.23%)		 16.53%
(70.89%)
総合 60.32%
(79.23%)		 59.68%
(76.77%)		 60.75%
(79.88%)		 63.33%
(104.83%)		 73.52%
(70.29%)		 64.52%
(79.76%)		 57.73%
(79.12%)		 89.70%
(74.57%)

イテレーション数2,000ではなのか、モデルサイズ自体はまだ15MB程度なのでもう少し葉を増やすべきかなぁ。これ、40回やるのに6時間程掛かる。

追記 2026.7.26 9:07
モデルファイル整理してて見つけた21回目のNDCG@1=0.7782 NDCG@3=0.7836

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 28.42%
(82.05%)		 28.00%
(83.27%)		 28.55%
(79.11%)		 32.50%
(105.08%)		 38.36%
(85.16%)		 30.41%
(88.15%)		 26.86%
(79.73%)		 58.44%
(78.26%)
複勝 59.45%
(84.61%)		 59.38%
(84.53%)		 58.93%
(84.26%)		 67.50%
(90.58%)		 72.60%
(89.36%)		 65.02%
(86.35%)		 56.41%
(83.60%)		 89.61%
(82.78%)
枠連 16.65%
(86.98%)		 17.03%
(96.02%)		 15.88%
(77.63%)		 23.23%
(107.07%)		 --
(--)		 17.92%
(84.18%)		 15.16%
(82.40%)		 31.83%
(79.08%)
馬連 13.17%
(84.70%)		 13.32%
(84.88%)		 12.70%
(84.82%)		 17.50%
(80.42%)		 26.03%
(71.69%)		 15.33%
(87.75%)		 11.29%
(84.85%)		 26.54%
(76.99%)
ワイド 27.09%
(85.80%)		 28.48%
(89.42%)		 25.39%
(82.62%)		 30.83%
(78.42%)		 51.14%
(83.84%)		 32.01%
(82.08%)		 23.28%
(87.22%)		 49.55%
(80.09%)
馬単 7.29%
(82.21%)		 6.81%
(75.26%)		 7.59%
(88.18%)		 10.00%
(98.17%)		 14.61%
(68.54%)		 8.53%
(97.92%)		 6.22%
(78.21%)		 26.54%
(74.20%)
三連複 6.51%
(77.43%)		 6.99%
(57.99%)		 5.95%
(98.04%)		 7.50%
(68.50%)		 19.18%
(72.97%)		 8.03%
(58.50%)		 4.86%
(84.15%)		 16.82%
(72.83%)
三連単 1.39%
(48.46%)		 1.48%
(52.96%)		 1.40%
(47.38%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 4.11%
(52.10%)		 1.48%
(34.92%)		 1.11%
(52.65%)		 16.82%
(68.66%)
総合 60.69%
(78.92%)		 60.92%
(77.66%)		 59.84%
(80.27%)		 69.17%
(77.89%)		 76.71%
(74.81%)		 65.88%
(77.48%)		 57.52%
(79.10%)		 89.93%
(72.91%)

これも単複の的中率は良いけどって感じだな^^;

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2026/07/25

モデルのサイズ

昨夜試した学習はイテレーション数2,000にしました。ここまで採用したのは3,000でしたが、モデルサイズが16MBでした。葉の数増やして細かくフィットされてみる為にイテレーション数を減らし葉を増やす。どの程度影響してるか把握はしてないけど分割数も減らす。で、昨夜は率は0.015でした。これだと13MB。

で、今試しているのは

NumberOfLeaves: 335
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.01
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 31
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点

なんですが、葉をさらに増やして率は0.01に。これだとほぼ15MBに近くなります。15回目でNDCG@1=0.7792 NDCG@3=0.7831

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 28.19%
(81.12%)		 28.18%
(83.61%)		 28.13%
(78.41%)		 29.17%
(83.08%)		 38.36%
(85.71%)		 29.30%
(83.20%)		 26.91%
(80.01%)		 57.97%
(76.82%)
複勝 59.25%
(84.19%)		 59.15%
(84.25%)		 59.05%
(84.28%)		 63.33%
(82.25%)		 72.15%
(88.68%)		 63.91%
(83.99%)		 56.53%
(83.86%)		 89.58%
(82.45%)
枠連 17.20%
(91.22%)		 17.10%
(98.08%)		 16.77%
(83.53%)		 25.25%
(115.96%)		 --
(--)		 19.16%
(83.76%)		 15.45%
(87.92%)		 31.25%
(76.44%)
馬連 13.43%
(86.48%)		 13.62%
(88.19%)		 12.88%
(84.61%)		 18.33%
(87.92%)		 25.57%
(69.36%)		 15.57%
(83.91%)		 11.62%
(88.88%)		 25.59%
(71.78%)
ワイド 27.70%
(87.24%)		 28.60%
(84.49%)		 26.49%
(90.47%)		 31.67%
(81.42%)		 51.14%
(82.74%)		 32.88%
(86.21%)		 23.86%
(87.99%)		 49.23%
(78.49%)
馬単 7.29%
(79.09%)		 7.10%
(77.99%)		 7.23%
(78.21%)		 10.83%
(106.67%)		 14.16%
(66.62%)		 8.53%
(79.68%)		 6.26%
(80.02%)		 25.59%
(68.85%)
三連複 6.11%
(69.57%)		 6.87%
(54.32%)		 5.22%
(85.29%)		 7.50%
(68.50%)		 18.26%
(65.89%)		 8.28%
(64.73%)		 4.29%
(71.51%)		 17.05%
(73.01%)
三連単 1.45%
(54.97%)		 1.84%
(75.58%)		 1.15%
(37.83%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 3.65%
(36.03%)		 2.22%
(54.89%)		 0.99%
(56.70%)		 17.05%
(68.31%)
総合 60.38%
(79.07%)		 60.45%
(80.45%)		 60.09%
(77.80%)		 63.33%
(77.38%)		 75.34%
(70.72%)		 64.77%
(77.55%)		 57.56%
(79.61%)		 89.87%
(71.43%)

まあまだのこり20回以上あるので良いものが出る事を期待したいです。ワイドが頑張ってる感じがします。なんか工夫次第で行ける範囲なきもする。

期待値で絞って攻めるのもありかも。これ、クラス別を作りこむの忘れてたのでこの後追加してみます。

追記 2026.7.25 20:34
21回目のNDCG@1=0.7799 NDCG@3=0.7828

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 28.45%
(83.55%)		 27.77%
(81.64%)		 28.86%
(83.94%)		 32.50%
(105.08%)		 41.10%
(94.79%)		 29.54%
(82.98%)		 26.95%
(82.73%)		 58.38%
(78.69%)
複勝 59.16%
(84.58%)		 58.85%
(83.69%)		 59.05%
(85.02%)		 65.00%
(91.00%)		 72.15%
(89.63%)		 64.03%
(84.10%)		 56.37%
(84.28%)		 89.70%
(83.06%)
枠連 15.96%
(85.98%)		 16.04%
(93.53%)		 15.37%
(78.35%)		 24.24%
(99.90%)		 --
(--)		 18.17%
(83.05%)		 14.22%
(81.50%)		 31.44%
(78.80%)
馬連 12.79%
(83.87%)		 13.08%
(86.83%)		 12.09%
(80.90%)		 18.33%
(83.08%)		 23.74%
(61.64%)		 15.45%
(86.60%)		 10.92%
(84.97%)		 25.93%
(80.49%)
ワイド 27.61%
(88.42%)		 28.72%
(85.54%)		 26.00%
(91.66%)		 34.17%
(84.42%)		 49.77%
(80.32%)		 32.51%
(83.77%)		 23.98%
(90.70%)		 49.73%
(81.11%)
馬単 6.98%
(76.81%)		 6.81%
(79.00%)		 6.93%
(75.03%)		 10.00%
(70.50%)		 13.24%
(60.14%)		 7.91%
(81.42%)		 6.10%
(76.78%)		 25.93%
(78.38%)
三連複 6.08%
(68.47%)		 6.63%
(51.05%)		 5.47%
(86.93%)		 6.67%
(60.50%)		 16.89%
(54.89%)		 8.53%
(65.34%)		 4.29%
(70.75%)		 16.96%
(79.24%)
三連単 1.27%
(33.22%)		 1.48%
(38.68%)		 1.15%
(30.04%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 4.11%
(45.48%)		 1.85%
(42.48%)		 0.82%
(29.03%)		 16.96%
(73.30%)
総合 60.26%
(75.47%)		 60.09%
(74.60%)		 60.09%
(76.47%)		 65.00%
(73.74%)		 75.34%
(69.56%)		 64.77%
(76.22%)		 57.40%
(75.09%)		 90.04%
(76.57%)

これはどうなんだろうって感じのモデルが最適なのか、24回目のNDCG@1=0.7779 NDCG@3=0.7832

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 28.02%
(81.60%)		 27.77%
(83.04%)		 28.01%
(79.29%)		 31.67%
(93.08%)		 35.62%
(79.50%)		 29.30%
(83.61%)		 26.91%
(81.12%)		 58.52%
(78.78%)
複勝 59.28%
(84.75%)		 58.67%
(83.57%)		 59.54%
(85.88%)		 64.17%
(85.92%)		 70.32%
(86.80%)		 65.51%
(87.24%)		 56.20%
(83.74%)		 89.29%
(82.66%)
枠連 16.35%
(87.24%)		 17.25%
(98.55%)		 15.25%
(77.03%)		 21.21%
(88.48%)		 --
(--)		 18.42%
(83.83%)		 14.63%
(82.84%)		 31.31%
(78.14%)
馬連 12.88%
(83.62%)		 13.91%
(90.11%)		 11.66%
(78.54%)		 15.00%
(61.92%)		 25.11%
(68.54%)		 15.33%
(83.50%)		 10.96%
(85.02%)		 26.05%
(74.98%)
ワイド 27.24%
(84.06%)		 29.31%
(85.88%)		 24.97%
(83.49%)		 29.17%
(66.42%)		 51.14%
(83.93%)		 33.00%
(84.03%)		 23.16%
(84.09%)		 49.52%
(79.86%)
馬単 6.98%
(76.44%)		 7.10%
(81.28%)		 6.68%
(72.64%)		 9.17%
(60.50%)		 13.24%
(60.73%)		 8.03%
(76.70%)		 6.06%
(77.78%)		 26.05%
(71.85%)
三連複 6.22%
(67.93%)		 6.87%
(53.17%)		 5.41%
(81.77%)		 8.33%
(85.83%)		 18.26%
(69.18%)		 8.90%
(70.44%)		 4.24%
(66.98%)		 16.53%
(74.02%)
三連単 1.30%
(41.31%)		 1.60%
(57.77%)		 1.09%
(27.44%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 3.65%
(34.20%)		 1.85%
(44.39%)		 0.91%
(40.93%)		 16.53%
(67.39%)
総合 60.67%
(75.71%)		 60.33%
(78.76%)		 60.75%
(73.24%)		 64.17%
(67.31%)		 75.34%
(68.98%)		 66.50%
(76.72%)		 57.40%
(75.31%)		 89.58%
(71.93%)

これはダメだorz これはちと葉の数がマイナスになってるかも^^;

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SQLite Version 3.53.4

昨日SQLite Version 3.53.4がリリースされてました。少し前にSourceGear.sqlite3は久しぶりに更新されて3.53.3になりましたが、これが更新される時期は読めないのでSQLiteからプリコンパイルされたビルドをダウンロードして導入。現在ランキング学習中ではありますが、一応新たなバージョンなので動作確認もかねてフルセットアップスタート。

特に問題なく終了。時間はやはり裏でランキング学習が走ってるから、ちと掛かってる感じです。

これ、必要ないかもなんですが、最適化もしました。こちらもやはり時間掛かって16分は長いなぁ^^; まあ、SQLiteの新バージョンでも特に問題なく行けてますね。

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新しいビルドでの学習

LightGBM Version 4.7.0でビルドしてランキング学習。

NumberOfLeaves: 303
NumberOfIterations: 2000
LearningRate: 0.015
MaximumBinCountPerFeature: 31
MinimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 50
CustomGains: 0～500 = 0点, 501～1000は1.8乗に0～1000点

一応40回回した。18回目のNDCG@1=0.7788 NDCG@3=0.7830

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 28.28%
(81.96%)		 28.06%
(85.30%)		 28.07%
(77.18%)		 34.17%
(100.58%)		 37.44%
(83.70%)		 29.54%
(83.08%)		 27.03%
(81.43%)		 58.23%
(78.31%)
複勝 58.78%
(83.72%)		 58.32%
(83.32%)		 58.75%
(83.79%)		 65.83%
(88.42%)		 68.49%
(84.29%)		 63.29%
(83.09%)		 56.41%
(83.88%)		 89.81%
(82.34%)
枠連 16.58%
(88.94%)		 16.75%
(96.06%)		 16.07%
(82.40%)		 22.22%
(91.62%)		 --
(--)		 17.06%
(72.50%)		 15.37%
(88.78%)		 31.38%
(79.52%)
馬連 12.97%
(86.72%)		 13.26%
(88.59%)		 12.45%
(86.36%)		 15.83%
(65.33%)		 24.20%
(64.70%)		 14.34%
(74.24%)		 11.50%
(92.87%)		 25.62%
(73.82%)
ワイド 27.18%
(85.60%)		 28.66%
(87.80%)		 25.64%
(84.91%)		 27.50%
(64.08%)		 48.86%
(79.22%)		 30.78%
(76.35%)		 24.02%
(89.26%)		 49.09%
(78.21%)
馬単 7.24%
(78.87%)		 7.05%
(76.10%)		 7.11%
(80.95%)		 11.67%
(89.08%)		 13.70%
(60.96%)		 8.53%
(87.33%)		 6.22%
(77.66%)		 25.62%
(71.92%)
三連複 6.02%
(60.33%)		 6.63%
(55.29%)		 5.35%
(64.51%)		 6.67%
(73.92%)		 18.26%
(71.51%)		 8.03%
(67.64%)		 4.24%
(56.88%)		 17.08%
(74.54%)
三連単 1.30%
(39.61%)		 1.36%
(33.70%)		 1.28%
(44.65%)		 0.83%
(53.75%)		 5.02%
(50.82%)		 1.73%
(39.12%)		 0.82%
(38.76%)		 17.08%
(70.54%)
総合 60.17%
(75.54%)		 59.92%
(75.34%)		 59.96%
(75.56%)		 66.67%
(78.05%)		 73.06%
(70.74%)		 63.91%
(72.92%)		 57.77%
(76.19%)		 90.07%
(73.39%)

36回目のNDCG@1=0.7790 NDCG@3=0.7827

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 27.93%
(81.43%)		 27.06%
(80.54%)		 28.43%
(81.14%)		 33.33%
(98.00%)		 38.81%
(87.72%)		 29.42%
(83.56%)		 26.45%
(80.15%)		 58.96%
(79.50%)
複勝 58.61%
(83.74%)		 57.84%
(82.82%)		 58.69%
(84.22%)		 68.33%
(90.08%)		 69.86%
(86.12%)		 64.52%
(85.46%)		 55.62%
(82.95%)		 89.61%
(83.23%)
枠連 16.77%
(85.95%)		 17.25%
(93.46%)		 15.95%
(78.27%)		 23.23%
(101.31%)		 --
(--)		 18.29%
(84.15%)		 15.20%
(81.10%)		 31.77%
(78.81%)
馬連 12.79%
(81.34%)		 13.50%
(83.96%)		 11.73%
(79.07%)		 17.50%
(75.67%)		 22.83%
(57.99%)		 15.33%
(85.23%)		 11.04%
(82.15%)		 26.48%
(77.19%)
ワイド 27.38%
(85.52%)		 28.42%
(82.10%)		 25.76%
(88.90%)		 35.00%
(87.33%)		 48.40%
(78.58%)		 32.76%
(83.25%)		 23.69%
(86.91%)		 49.96%
(80.45%)
馬単 7.09%
(82.00%)		 7.05%
(81.72%)		 6.93%
(80.77%)		 10.00%
(102.75%)		 12.79%
(54.02%)		 8.03%
(96.61%)		 6.26%
(79.65%)		 26.48%
(74.63%)
三連複 6.48%
(73.63%)		 7.52%
(59.99%)		 5.35%
(88.17%)		 7.50%
(66.17%)		 18.26%
(69.82%)		 8.90%
(65.64%)		 4.61%
(76.64%)		 16.73%
(74.36%)
三連単 1.33%
(39.77%)		 1.72%
(51.66%)		 0.97%
(26.37%)		 0.83%
(56.08%)		 3.65%
(40.27%)		 2.10%
(51.76%)		 0.87%
(35.72%)		 16.73%
(70.42%)
総合 59.88%
(76.55%)		 59.15%
(76.68%)		 60.02%
(75.85%)		 68.33%
(84.30%)		 73.06%
(67.79%)		 65.14%
(79.46%)		 56.94%
(75.66%)		 89.87%
(74.09%)

あとは、8回目のNDCG@1=0.7779 NDCG@3=0.7833

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 28.28%
(81.93%)		 27.59%
(81.51%)		 28.68%
(80.57%)		 32.50%
(106.50%)		 35.62%
(78.68%)		 30.41%
(86.67%)		 26.91%
(80.64%)		 58.47%
(78.75%)
複勝 59.19%
(84.56%)		 58.85%
(83.76%)		 59.23%
(85.01%)		 63.33%
(89.83%)		 69.41%
(85.75%)		 64.77%
(85.15%)		 56.41%
(84.26%)		 89.78%
(83.08%)
枠連 16.03%
(83.50%)		 15.68%
(86.12%)		 15.82%
(79.53%)		 24.24%
(109.39%)		 --
(--)		 18.79%
(86.76%)		 14.09%
(77.12%)		 31.25%
(77.56%)
馬連 12.47%
(80.34%)		 12.37%
(76.73%)		 12.15%
(83.52%)		 18.33%
(87.42%)		 23.74%
(64.20%)		 15.70%
(87.22%)		 10.38%
(79.50%)		 26.08%
(76.14%)
ワイド 26.83%
(86.25%)		 27.59%
(88.01%)		 25.70%
(85.12%)		 31.67%
(76.92%)		 50.23%
(80.78%)		 32.63%
(85.46%)		 22.79%
(87.00%)		 49.32%
(79.49%)
馬単 6.57%
(73.16%)		 5.98%
(65.16%)		 6.74%
(77.70%)		 12.50%
(123.50%)		 10.96%
(49.86%)		 8.16%
(94.03%)		 5.64%
(68.30%)		 26.08%
(73.64%)
三連複 6.22%
(69.25%)		 7.10%
(60.59%)		 5.22%
(77.79%)		 7.50%
(73.92%)		 18.26%
(66.53%)		 8.53%
(65.11%)		 4.37%
(70.88%)		 16.79%
(73.55%)
三連単 1.16%
(33.61%)		 1.24%
(39.47%)		 1.15%
(30.05%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 3.20%
(36.35%)		 1.36%
(30.43%)		 0.91%
(34.42%)		 16.79%
(70.27%)
総合 60.35%
(73.95%)		 60.09%
(72.38%)		 60.33%
(74.89%)		 64.17%
(82.85%)		 73.06%
(66.02%)		 65.51%
(77.61%)		 57.48%
(72.77%)		 90.07%
(73.58%)

32回目のNDCG@1=0.7776 NDCG@3=0.7833

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 28.63%
(82.59%)		 27.77%
(82.09%)		 28.98%
(81.57%)		 35.83%
(103.58%)		 34.70%
(74.43%)		 31.77%
(89.81%)		 27.03%
(80.92%)		 58.84%
(78.96%)
複勝 59.45%
(85.08%)		 58.85%
(84.00%)		 59.48%
(86.04%)		 67.50%
(87.08%)		 68.95%
(83.97%)		 66.01%
(87.28%)		 56.41%
(84.45%)		 90.01%
(82.82%)
枠連 16.35%
(87.17%)		 16.47%
(97.90%)		 15.95%
(77.04%)		 21.21%
(95.66%)		 --
(--)		 18.05%
(86.50%)		 14.75%
(81.87%)		 31.41%
(79.18%)
馬連 12.91%
(83.89%)		 13.08%
(87.95%)		 12.39%
(79.62%)		 17.50%
(85.33%)		 24.20%
(65.16%)		 15.33%
(86.70%)		 11.08%
(84.64%)		 25.88%
(74.24%)
ワイド 27.38%
(86.95%)		 28.54%
(86.52%)		 25.82%
(87.56%)		 32.50%
(84.58%)		 50.68%
(82.92%)		 32.39%
(87.64%)		 23.61%
(87.08%)		 49.41%
(79.65%)
馬単 6.95%
(75.72%)		 6.57%
(77.75%)		 6.99%
(70.87%)		 11.67%
(113.50%)		 11.42%
(51.78%)		 8.78%
(86.14%)		 5.93%
(74.40%)		 25.88%
(72.58%)
三連複 6.28%
(65.16%)		 6.99%
(59.48%)		 5.41%
(68.78%)		 8.33%
(95.42%)		 17.35%
(63.52%)		 8.78%
(78.45%)		 4.45%
(60.88%)		 16.67%
(72.69%)
三連単 1.24%
(38.48%)		 1.12%
(27.87%)		 1.28%
(32.28%)		 2.50%
(272.83%)		 3.20%
(33.65%)		 2.60%
(87.55%)		 0.62%
(22.56%)		 16.67%
(67.47%)
総合 60.67%
(75.47%)		 60.15%
(74.97%)		 60.63%
(72.95%)		 68.33%
(117.73%)		 72.60%
(65.06%)		 66.75%
(86.26%)		 57.56%
(72.10%)		 90.30%
(71.97%)

前2つはNDCG@1的に上位、後2つはNDCG@3的に上位です。最後のが単複共に的中率は最高ですが、もう少し上げたい。

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2026/07/23

LightGBM Version 4.7.0

気が付けば今週初め頃にリリースされた模様。ただ、NuGetはまだみたい。更に言えば、基本的にはMicrosoft.ML.LightGBMが現時点でVersion 6.0.0-preview.26160.2なんですが、これが多分正式に6.0.0になるのは.NET11がリリースされるタイミング。これ、今年の11月10日らしいので４か月弱後です。

先日の.NET10のリリースビルド作成時の不具合なんかも当然改善されるんだとは思うけど、その時にML.NETの正式リリースでLightGBM Version 4.7.0が採用されるとまた面白くなるかもだが、逆に面倒な事に全てのモデルの再学習とかも必要になるかも。ただ、それでもModel Builderは相変わらずLightGBM Version 3.3.5とかのままかもなので、そうであれば再学習は意味がない。

ただ、先日リリースした新機能的に、検証期間が1年では短過ぎる感じなので、学習データを例えば2004年～2020年の17年分として、検証期間2021～2025年なら5年あるのでってのも試す価値はあるかもです。

結局今年はズルズルと既に半年以上が過ぎた^^; .NET11のリリース時期絡みもあるが、年内にはどうにか出来ないと、年齢的にもきつくなってくるかも。

追記 2026.7.24 21:58
チェックしてみると、今日は既にNuGetがあったので、強引に入れて発行すると警告的なものは出る(笑) ただ、走らせてみると走ってるのでちょっと試してみようかと思います。

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2026/07/21

相変わらずのMicrosoftクオリティ

先週末はアプリの新たな機能実装してたのでリリース準備してました。既に随分前にアプリのプラットフォームは.NET10に移行してました。Visual Studioのデバッグでは全く問題なく普通にリリースビルドの発行してインストーラー準備。まあ、念の為のそのリリースビルドをこちらの環境で試すとアプリ事吹っ飛ぶorz 慌ててリリース中止して原因追及。

今回もAIに頼ってましたが、今回の原因はAIではなく、Microsoftです。まあ、別に驚きませんけどね。もう何十年もMicrosoftにはやられてますからね。驚くのは、Visual Studioでデバッグ時には問題ない。いたる所にtry...catchとかで即死は防止してると思ったが、そんのものともせずに吹っ飛びました。原因追及時にはCopilotに参戦してもらい、原因特定には大昔からの1行毎にPrint(笑) まあ、この時代ではMessageBoxでって事で原因は特定。その対処としてCopilotは.NET10でのリリースビルド作成時のVisual Studioのバグだと。確かにコードは一切変えずに.NET9にしてリリースビルド作成すれば全く問題なく走る。

ああ、そういえば、少し前にMicrosoftの開発チーム(?)とかから俺の開発状態をモニターしたい的な案内があったがスルーしてる。そうだ、また、クレーム入れようかな(笑) これまでにも何度か入れてますけど、決して良い反応は無いのがMicrosoftクオリティだからね。何度も助けてあげてるのに、そんなのも無視だし。

何にしても、最悪なのが今回ユーザー様方には多大な迷惑をかけている事。.NET10に移行するってランタイム入れてもらってるのに、時代に逆行して古いプラットフォームを再度インストールしてもらうお願いをする。まあ、一般ユーザー様方は俺みたいに何度もOSのクリーンインストールとかしなければ、古いのも残ってるかもだけど^^;

でもさ、アプリが吹っ飛ぶ様な状況が起きるものを正式リリースしてるのもどうなのかなぁって思います。いや、俺もバグ含んだアプリを何度もリリースしてるので偉そうな事は言えないけどね。

自分自身も気を引き締めてバグでユーザー様に迷惑かけない様に努めますm(__)m

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2026/07/18

何の為に競馬するの?

本当に単純な話として、なんで馬券買うの? これってスタンスの違いはあるとは思うけど、基本的にギャンブルで、純粋な競馬ファンも居るのは分かりますが金儲けです。永遠の課題の不労収入的に期待しますよね(笑)

まあ、その為のツールとして少しでも手助けになるかも的にアプリの開発してますけど、確実に儲けられるってなると簡単ではないです(笑) 仮にそんなアプリか出来たとして、リリースするの?って疑問はあるし、世の中にある競馬予想アプリでそんなアプリは存在しない?

これ、仮にあなたがそのアプリの作者だとして、確実に利益の出るアプリを開発したとして、それをあえてリリースしますか? まあ確かに、リリースする方もおられるかもですが、それはまれな話じゃないかと思います。

では、自分のアプリは? 当たり前ですが、100%勝てるものではないのでリリースしてます。でも、もしかすると100%勝てるかもなので、それにたどり着ける方はラッキー! ってのは、そもそも、自力で機械学習させて、そんなモデルに巡り合う方だとか(これはあくまでも運も含めてなので)、対応方法を独自に考えた方には可能だと。

ここ最近はモデルの学習は休憩してます。代わりにどうすれば勝てるかを検証出来る機能の実装作業してました。ちょっと前に期待値を導入してます。モデルの予測からの勝率求めて、そのオッズから得られるのですが、当たり前ですが、オッズは未知! でも、ある程度のオッズから投票するかしないかの判断すれば...

ちょっとこの辺りを攻めてみる機能追加してます^^

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2026/07/11

当然の話ではあるが

パソコン歴48年とかなると、まあ、色々とあるんだが^^; スタンドアローンからネット、まあインターネットもなんだが、モデム使ってリモートアクセスとかパソコン通信的なのも踏まえて現在に至ると、何本もLANケーブルは所持してた。貧乏性ってか、まあ、安易に繋がるじゃん的に所持してるケーブルを使い、二股したいとかだと、数十年前にもらったルーターをハブとして利用。

頻繁にネットのストリーミングは利用してるけど、速度低下からの画質が気になってたんです。まあ、当然と言えば当然の話だが、LANケーブルにも規格がある。スイッチングハブを20年も前のルーターでは規格外れorz

って事で、今回は

  • エレコム EHC-LG05M-B スイッチングハブ5ポート 1,980円
  • エレコム LANケーブル CAT6A 2m 578円
  • エレコム LANケーブル CAT6A 1m 493円×2

を計3,744円で全てアマギフでもらう事にしました。

これが新しくするとどの程度になるのかなんですが、明日到着予定なので追記します。

追記 2026.7.12 13:11
アマゾン配送は静かにポスト投函してくれてて2時間程気が付かず、更にスマホにも出てるがコーディングしてて全く気にしてなかった。

まあ、上りが微妙だが、基本は下りが良ければ良いわけで、確かGMOはIPv6接続だったと思うからって言い方は違うかなぁとは思うが、何んにしてもIPv6の下りがかなり改善されたのが吉と出るんじゃないかと。IPv4も少し改善してるし、全体的にこれなら動画視聴中に画質が落ちたりは避けられると良いかなっとね。

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2026/07/05

乗数の微調整

二乗からどうするか? 実は2.5乗は試したけど、あまり良い感じではなかったです。で、今回試したのは1.8乗でNDCG@1=0.7796 NDCG@3=0.7833で

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 28.36%
(82.42%)		 27.95%
(84.28%)		 28.49%
(79.53%)		 32.50%
(95.92%)		 37.90%
(85.84%)		 29.67%
(85.09%)		 27.07%
(81.22%)		 58.18%
(77.92%)
複勝 59.39%
(84.75%)		 59.33%
(84.77%)		 58.87%
(84.37%)		 67.50%
(89.50%)		 71.23%
(88.13%)		 65.27%
(86.35%)		 56.37%
(83.91%)		 89.81%
(82.64%)
枠連 16.26%
(83.16%)		 16.68%
(90.13%)		 15.25%
(74.79%)		 26.26%
(116.97%)		 --
(--)		 19.16%
(83.82%)		 14.26%
(77.66%)		 30.86%
(75.73%)
馬連 12.76%
(80.97%)		 13.03%
(79.01%)		 11.91%
(80.29%)		 20.83%
(117.83%)		 22.83%
(61.96%)		 16.19%
(87.18%)		 10.71%
(80.61%)		 25.67%
(72.02%)
ワイド 27.09%
(83.62%)		 27.95%
(80.17%)		 25.76%
(86.91%)		 33.33%
(87.00%)		 50.23%
(83.97%)		 32.63%
(80.56%)		 23.16%
(84.61%)		 48.97%
(78.26%)
馬単 6.89%
(76.29%)		 6.39%
(65.90%)		 7.11%
(82.86%)		 10.83%
(132.25%)		 12.79%
(60.18%)		 7.54%
(75.20%)		 6.14%
(78.10%)		 25.67%
(69.64%)
三連複 6.37%
(62.34%)		 7.10%
(58.73%)		 5.53%
(64.13%)		 7.50%
(88.58%)		 19.18%
(71.51%)		 8.28%
(59.67%)		 4.57%
(62.40%)		 16.70%
(78.23%)
三連単 1.53%
(54.67%)		 1.66%
(46.32%)		 1.46%
(63.13%)		 0.83%
(56.08%)		 3.65%
(41.37%)		 2.22%
(45.36%)		 1.11%
(58.97%)		 16.70%
(70.99%)
総合 60.78%
(75.93%)		 61.16%
(73.32%)		 59.90%
(77.01%)		 67.50%
(97.59%)		 76.26%
(70.42%)		 66.13%
(75.40%)		 57.60%
(75.93%)		 90.04%
(73.33%)

ちょっと時間節約で20回しかやってないけど、ダメか^^; 20回やるのに3時間20分程度です。次点としてはNDCG@1=0.7802 NDCG@3=0.7832で

3,455R 1点 芝(1,689R) ダート(1,646R) 障害(120R) 8頭以下(219R) 9～12頭(809R) 13頭以上(2,427R) 多点
単勝 27.84%
(79.19%)		 27.35%
(79.55%)		 27.95%
(77.54%)		 33.33%
(96.67%)		 39.27%
(90.05%)		 28.55%
(75.36%)		 26.58%
(79.48%)		 58.18%
(77.50%)
複勝 58.90%
(83.73%)		 58.85%
(83.93%)		 58.44%
(83.31%)		 65.83%
(86.67%)		 72.60%
(91.28%)		 64.15%
(83.51%)		 55.91%
(83.12%)		 89.35%
(82.76%)
枠連 15.93%
(83.25%)		 15.68%
(90.38%)		 15.76%
(75.91%)		 22.22%
(98.48%)		 --
(--)		 17.18%
(77.24%)		 14.50%
(79.97%)		 31.70%
(78.88%)
馬連 12.71%
(82.58%)		 12.73%
(83.62%)		 12.15%
(79.44%)		 20.00%
(110.83%)		 24.20%
(68.04%)		 14.59%
(78.50%)		 11.04%
(85.25%)		 26.37%
(76.91%)
ワイド 27.29%
(85.46%)		 28.30%
(84.67%)		 25.88%
(85.95%)		 32.50%
(89.75%)		 50.68%
(84.16%)		 31.52%
(81.25%)		 23.77%
(86.98%)		 49.32%
(80.55%)
馬単 6.74%
(73.34%)		 6.16%
(65.83%)		 7.05%
(77.28%)		 10.83%
(124.83%)		 11.87%
(53.20%)		 6.43%
(58.47%)		 6.39%
(80.11%)		 26.37%
(74.48%)
三連複 6.48%
(67.50%)		 7.34%
(66.22%)		 5.47%
(67.76%)		 8.33%
(82.00%)		 17.81%
(60.96%)		 8.78%
(71.97%)		 4.70%
(66.60%)		 17.02%
(77.05%)
三連単 1.33%
(49.85%)		 1.60%
(57.76%)		 1.15%
(45.37%)		 0.00%
(0.00%)		 3.65%
(40.18%)		 1.61%
(41.29%)		 1.03%
(53.58%)		 17.02%
(71.54%)
総合 59.94%
(75.51%)		 59.98%
(76.20%)		 59.48%
(74.06%)		 65.83%
(85.88%)		 75.80%
(69.69%)		 64.89%
(70.95%)		 56.86%
(76.89%)		 89.61%
(74.69%)

これは全然ダメだ(笑)

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