通常用モデルのメモ

86400_14142(16.2MB)

1,909R	1点	芝(921R)	ダート(912R)	障害(76R)	8頭以下(139R)	9～12頭(465R)	13頭以上(1305R)	多点
単勝	21.53% (76.62%)	18.46% (68.91%)	24.34% (85.44%)	25.00% (64.21%)	39.57% (109.50%)	24.73% (71.31%)	18.47% (75.01%)	50.24% (77.44%)
複勝	51.23% (84.81%)	46.04% (79.15%)	56.03% (89.79%)	56.58% (93.68%)	67.63% (92.45%)	57.42% (88.99%)	47.28% (82.51%)	86.38% (82.31%)
枠連	11.65% (72.49%)	10.14% (65.77%)	12.53% (77.24%)	18.03% (88.85%)	-- (--)	16.34% (82.80%)	9.20% (63.92%)	25.98% (78.57%)
馬連	9.11% (64.72%)	8.25% (59.34%)	10.09% (71.97%)	7.89% (42.89%)	22.30% (85.61%)	13.12% (86.39%)	6.28% (54.77%)	20.95% (83.28%)
ワイド	20.59% (74.52%)	18.02% (64.16%)	23.14% (86.34%)	21.05% (58.16%)	44.60% (85.76%)	27.10% (89.03%)	15.71% (68.15%)	41.54% (80.72%)
馬単	4.92% (64.62%)	3.80% (57.68%)	6.14% (74.43%)	3.95% (31.05%)	14.39% (77.12%)	7.31% (101.31%)	3.07% (50.21%)	20.95% (88.61%)
三連複	4.82% (51.58%)	4.56% (34.95%)	5.04% (70.90%)	5.26% (21.18%)	13.67% (69.64%)	7.74% (58.58%)	2.84% (47.16%)	13.31% (65.08%)
三連単	0.84% (41.03%)	0.76% (50.17%)	0.99% (35.21%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.60% (43.81%)	1.51% (96.22%)	0.31% (21.07%)	13.31% (58.26%)
総合	52.54% (66.20%)	47.77% (59.89%)	56.91% (73.89%)	57.89% (49.02%)	71.22% (80.55%)	58.71% (84.33%)	48.35% (57.85%)	87.01% (69.23%)

86400_14970(2MB)

1,909R	1点	芝(921R)	ダート(912R)	障害(76R)	8頭以下(139R)	9～12頭(465R)	13頭以上(1305R)	多点
単勝	22.68% (94.89%)	20.41% (91.40%)	24.89% (95.78%)	23.68% (126.58%)	27.34% (64.89%)	25.81% (102.80%)	21.07% (95.27%)	50.65% (80.88%)
複勝	50.81% (87.31%)	47.88% (86.49%)	53.84% (88.94%)	50.00% (77.63%)	61.87% (81.94%)	58.28% (93.59%)	46.97% (85.64%)	86.69% (83.02%)
枠連	11.83% (94.98%)	9.75% (97.50%)	13.69% (96.22%)	11.48% (46.07%)	-- (--)	12.47% (95.55%)	10.80% (88.37%)	26.52% (83.83%)
馬連	8.85% (93.60%)	7.93% (92.68%)	9.87% (94.71%)	7.89% (91.32%)	22.30% (83.96%)	9.46% (91.91%)	7.20% (95.23%)	19.59% (79.48%)
ワイド	20.22% (82.68%)	18.57% (79.48%)	22.15% (87.84%)	17.11% (59.47%)	41.01% (86.12%)	23.87% (81.57%)	16.70% (82.70%)	40.70% (80.27%)
馬単	4.87% (108.25%)	4.56% (105.20%)	5.15% (107.37%)	5.26% (155.66%)	11.51% (62.73%)	4.73% (87.46%)	4.21% (120.50%)	19.59% (77.53%)
三連複	4.71% (52.21%)	5.21% (51.49%)	4.39% (56.66%)	2.63% (7.63%)	15.83% (84.96%)	5.81% (68.24%)	3.14% (43.01%)	13.04% (66.22%)
三連単	1.00% (79.09%)	1.19% (94.15%)	0.88% (70.47%)	0.00% (0.00%)	5.04% (77.84%)	1.08% (144.28%)	0.54% (55.99%)	13.04% (60.07%)
総合	52.59% (86.50%)	49.84% (87.07%)	55.37% (87.19%)	52.63% (71.16%)	68.35% (77.49%)	59.78% (95.67%)	48.35% (83.34%)	86.96% (69.11%)

86400_14255(30MB)

1,909R	1点	芝(921R)	ダート(912R)	障害(76R)	8頭以下(139R)	9～12頭(465R)	13頭以上(1305R)	多点
単勝	19.17% (75.98%)	17.59% (68.84%)	20.29% (80.66%)	25.00% (106.32%)	28.06% (82.52%)	21.29% (72.34%)	17.47% (76.57%)	47.25% (77.68%)
複勝	48.35% (82.16%)	45.17% (80.10%)	50.99% (83.71%)	55.26% (88.55%)	58.99% (78.27%)	55.70% (86.37%)	44.60% (81.07%)	84.02% (81.57%)
枠連	12.84% (100.67%)	12.38% (98.87%)	12.53% (100.51%)	22.95% (125.25%)	-- (--)	15.91% (97.14%)	10.88% (95.13%)	24.79% (80.38%)
馬連	8.54% (86.30%)	7.60% (65.75%)	8.99% (104.87%)	14.47% (112.37%)	15.11% (48.49%)	11.61% (94.49%)	6.74% (87.40%)	19.28% (77.24%)
ワイド	18.86% (83.04%)	16.50% (77.46%)	20.83% (89.25%)	23.68% (76.18%)	33.09% (60.14%)	25.38% (88.49%)	15.02% (83.54%)	37.45% (79.38%)
馬単	4.09% (74.47%)	4.02% (65.55%)	3.95% (86.00%)	6.58% (44.21%)	7.91% (46.04%)	5.16% (69.51%)	3.30% (79.26%)	19.28% (75.72%)
三連複	5.13% (68.56%)	4.89% (70.67%)	5.15% (69.27%)	7.89% (34.61%)	14.39% (70.14%)	8.17% (83.53%)	3.07% (63.07%)	13.57% (94.17%)
三連単	0.84% (27.88%)	0.65% (17.63%)	0.88% (38.57%)	2.63% (23.82%)	2.88% (55.25%)	1.51% (34.92%)	0.38% (22.46%)	13.57% (89.89%)
総合	50.24% (74.49%)	47.34% (67.42%)	52.63% (81.47%)	56.58% (75.18%)	63.31% (62.98%)	57.20% (78.35%)	46.36% (73.56%)	84.39% (85.30%)

86400_14052(91.9MB)

1,909R	1点	芝(921R)	ダート(912R)	障害(76R)	8頭以下(139R)	9～12頭(465R)	13頭以上(1305R)	多点
単勝	21.58% (80.20%)	19.11% (73.12%)	23.68% (87.84%)	26.32% (74.34%)	34.53% (90.86%)	25.59% (87.05%)	18.77% (76.62%)	50.71% (75.85%)
複勝	50.65% (82.37%)	45.93% (76.84%)	54.50% (87.43%)	61.84% (88.55%)	61.15% (81.08%)	61.29% (93.38%)	45.75% (78.58%)	86.17% (82.52%)
枠連	12.54% (87.66%)	9.88% (62.98%)	14.04% (107.46%)	24.59% (114.92%)	-- (--)	15.91% (81.53%)	10.50% (83.93%)	27.35% (82.63%)
馬連	9.85% (76.90%)	7.93% (42.05%)	11.07% (106.97%)	18.42% (138.42%)	23.74% (87.19%)	12.90% (82.26%)	7.28% (73.90%)	22.52% (77.59%)
ワイド	21.42% (78.47%)	17.81% (63.46%)	24.12% (91.34%)	32.89% (105.92%)	45.32% (86.91%)	29.25% (94.88%)	16.09% (71.72%)	41.80% (84.25%)
馬単	5.29% (88.66%)	3.80% (33.53%)	6.36% (140.86%)	10.53% (130.39%)	15.83% (85.76%)	7.53% (109.40%)	3.37% (81.58%)	22.52% (75.12%)
三連複	5.87% (77.99%)	5.32% (58.32%)	6.25% (99.09%)	7.89% (63.29%)	13.67% (64.24%)	8.17% (76.92%)	4.21% (79.84%)	15.14% (114.25%)
三連単	1.10% (51.01%)	1.09% (29.45%)	1.10% (73.08%)	1.32% (47.50%)	5.04% (109.78%)	1.29% (54.47%)	0.61% (43.52%)	15.14% (134.67%)
総合	52.17% (77.76%)	47.88% (54.79%)	55.59% (99.20%)	63.16% (94.92%)	66.19% (86.55%)	62.58% (84.99%)	46.97% (73.71%)	86.64% (109.44%)

86400_14093(145.1MB)

1,909R	1点	芝(921R)	ダート(912R)	障害(76R)	8頭以下(139R)	9～12頭(465R)	13頭以上(1305R)	多点
単勝	21.37% (80.45%)	19.44% (74.22%)	23.03% (87.27%)	25.00% (73.95%)	39.57% (106.33%)	24.30% (83.40%)	18.39% (76.64%)	50.13% (79.30%)
複勝	52.49% (86.77%)	48.53% (82.20%)	55.15% (90.53%)	68.42% (96.97%)	71.22% (93.38%)	59.35% (88.43%)	48.05% (85.47%)	85.75% (83.29%)
枠連	11.53% (72.54%)	9.49% (62.06%)	12.53% (79.70%)	22.95% (101.80%)	-- (--)	15.05% (85.25%)	9.50% (63.12%)	26.46% (79.45%)
馬連	8.80% (68.52%)	7.38% (49.01%)	9.76% (85.36%)	14.47% (102.89%)	20.14% (72.09%)	10.97% (64.84%)	6.82% (69.46%)	21.11% (67.38%)
ワイド	20.95% (88.37%)	19.11% (77.23%)	22.59% (99.12%)	23.68% (94.21%)	40.29% (79.35%)	26.45% (88.88%)	16.93% (89.14%)	41.07% (85.18%)
馬単	4.87% (82.01%)	3.47% (41.11%)	6.03% (119.85%)	7.89% (123.68%)	12.23% (56.12%)	5.59% (54.75%)	3.83% (94.48%)	21.11% (67.33%)
三連複	5.55% (74.34%)	5.54% (76.91%)	5.48% (74.76%)	6.58% (38.16%)	12.23% (52.09%)	9.25% (85.83%)	3.52% (72.61%)	13.25% (70.22%)
三連単	1.15% (64.48%)	0.87% (21.41%)	1.43% (112.63%)	1.32% (8.68%)	2.88% (46.40%)	1.94% (112.00%)	0.69% (49.48%)	13.25% (64.77%)
総合	53.69% (77.25%)	49.84% (60.48%)	56.36% (93.75%)	68.42% (79.49%)	74.10% (72.25%)	60.86% (82.92%)	48.97% (75.05%)	86.17% (69.75%)

他にも沢山あるけど納得いくものは確かにないなorz

終わりが見えない学習

ちょっと一旦リリースはしたものの、納得したモデルは未だ出ないので昨日新馬戦用10時間をして帰宅後確認すると最適RMSE 1.6756だったのでそれ程期待してなくて放置。今朝まあ折角出たのでどんなものかと確認してみると

269R	1点	芝(176R)	ダート(93R)	8頭以下(26R)	9～12頭(74R)	13頭以上(169R)	多点
単勝	19.33% (73.42%)	20.45% (80.80%)	17.20% (59.46%)	26.92% (70.00%)	25.68% (77.70%)	15.38% (72.07%)	46.47% (70.07%)
複勝	47.96% (79.93%)	54.55% (90.85%)	35.48% (59.25%)	61.54% (80.38%)	54.05% (93.38%)	43.20% (73.96%)	81.78% (80.40%)
枠連	10.22% (83.29%)	12.41% (92.04%)	6.82% (69.66%)	-- (--)	6.76% (32.30%)	10.65% (96.75%)	23.11% (78.31%)
馬連	7.43% (103.01%)	9.09% (91.59%)	4.30% (124.62%)	15.38% (37.69%)	5.41% (31.89%)	7.10% (144.20%)	18.22% (83.51%)
ワイド	18.96% (97.70%)	22.73% (85.40%)	11.83% (120.97%)	38.46% (64.23%)	16.22% (51.89%)	17.16% (122.90%)	39.03% (94.92%)
馬単	4.46% (110.89%)	5.11% (106.82%)	3.23% (118.60%)	0.00% (0.00%)	4.05% (36.89%)	5.33% (160.36%)	18.22% (80.07%)
三連複	4.46% (79.93%)	6.25% (115.85%)	1.08% (11.94%)	19.23% (95.77%)	4.05% (83.11%)	2.37% (76.09%)	14.87% (231.01%)
三連単	0.74% (154.31%)	1.14% (235.85%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	1.18% (245.62%)	14.87% (360.30%)
総合	49.07% (98.11%)	55.68% (112.98%)	36.56% (70.57%)	65.38% (49.73%)	54.05% (50.90%)	44.38% (123.99%)	82.16% (232.18%)

予想外に悪くない。的中率はもっと欲しいけど、回収率は頑張ってる! 可能性はあるからひたすら学習継続するしかないなぁ😩

順位予測もして

久しぶりの順位予測の学習する為にShibaTimeCK36000_16720.mlnetとShouhaTimeCK86400_14018.mlnetを使った学習用CSV出力(3時間弱)をし、30分、1時間そして10時間学習させてみてRaceJuniFullCK36000_25588.mlnetを検証してみると

2,106R	1点	芝(1064R)	ダート(969R)	障害(73R)	8頭以下(163R)	9～12頭(526R)	13頭以上(1417R)	多点
単勝	21.94% (81.81%)	20.68% (79.00%)	23.22% (85.81%)	23.29% (69.59%)	36.20% (102.58%)	25.48% (79.77%)	18.98% (80.18%)	50.28% (78.44%)
複勝	50.85% (83.96%)	47.27% (79.78%)	54.28% (88.76%)	57.53% (81.10%)	63.80% (84.85%)	58.56% (89.41%)	46.51% (81.83%)	86.47% (83.14%)
枠連	12.40% (81.71%)	10.39% (71.05%)	13.88% (90.78%)	18.97% (97.93%)	-- (--)	13.50% (70.84%)	11.08% (79.75%)	25.61% (81.03%)
馬連	9.26% (72.71%)	7.42% (48.98%)	11.25% (99.60%)	9.59% (61.64%)	20.86% (69.08%)	10.46% (72.49%)	7.48% (73.20%)	20.32% (83.46%)
ワイド	20.94% (86.18%)	18.61% (73.59%)	23.53% (102.24%)	20.55% (56.44%)	40.49% (78.34%)	25.29% (84.26%)	17.08% (87.79%)	41.26% (84.65%)
馬単	4.89% (80.34%)	4.04% (52.99%)	5.99% (112.04%)	2.74% (58.08%)	10.43% (70.12%)	6.27% (90.00%)	3.74% (77.93%)	20.32% (82.59%)
三連複	4.94% (105.07%)	4.70% (60.67%)	5.06% (158.69%)	6.85% (40.41%)	11.04% (43.62%)	7.22% (69.03%)	3.39% (125.51%)	14.48% (90.63%)
三連単	1.00% (153.13%)	1.03% (86.91%)	1.03% (237.38%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.07% (80.61%)	0.95% (78.08%)	0.78% (189.33%)	14.48% (96.66%)
総合	52.33% (93.30%)	49.25% (69.08%)	55.21% (122.13%)	58.90% (57.10%)	69.33% (75.60%)	59.13% (79.23%)	47.85% (99.44%)	86.75% (90.10%)

もう少し頑張って欲しい気もあるが、このシリーズで行った変更申請してみようと思うので、今は人気予測用の学習用CSVの出力してます。多分これも3時間弱かかると思うので、その後学習させてセットアップファイル作ってとなるかと思います。

Microsoft Rewards 27回目

前回から36日目なので今回はちょっと前回よりは掛かったかな。5,040ポイントをamazon 600円にしました。毎回悩むけど、今回は選択肢に楽天もあったけど、楽天だと期間限定でしかもあまり長くないんだよね。まあ、使うから問題はないけど、なんとなくamazonにしちゃう。ただ、最近のamazonは自社ドライバー(?)なのが微妙に感じてる。更に時間指定不可なのも本当に微妙。いや、ドライバー不足とか負担を考えるとって事は理解するが、出来る方を選択したくはなっちゃうのも事実。

新馬戦用モデルの選定

そろそろ新バージョンの更新申請に向けてモデルの選定をと考えてます。現時点自分が使っている36000_16788は

265R	1点	芝(176R)	ダート(89R)	8頭以下(26R)	9～12頭(73R)	13頭以上(166R)	多点
単勝	20.00% (77.13%)	23.30% (93.41%)	13.48% (44.94%)	30.77% (80.38%)	20.55% (62.88%)	18.07% (82.89%)	45.66% (73.75%)
複勝	47.55% (79.32%)	52.84% (88.41%)	37.08% (61.35%)	61.54% (78.46%)	47.95% (85.21%)	45.18% (76.87%)	81.13% (76.54%)
枠連	9.05% (79.19%)	10.95% (100.58%)	5.95% (44.29%)	-- (--)	6.85% (86.71%)	9.04% (67.29%)	22.17% (70.48%)
馬連	6.79% (122.68%)	8.52% (141.36%)	3.37% (85.73%)	11.54% (52.31%)	4.11% (75.48%)	7.23% (154.46%)	18.11% (87.70%)
ワイド	18.87% (92.23%)	23.86% (106.65%)	8.99% (63.71%)	46.15% (77.31%)	16.44% (70.00%)	15.66% (104.34%)	36.23% (75.85%)
馬単	3.77% (163.74%)	5.68% (246.53%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	2.74% (117.26%)	4.82% (209.82%)	18.11% (84.94%)
三連複	4.15% (110.53%)	4.55% (140.11%)	3.37% (52.02%)	15.38% (92.69%)	4.11% (57.95%)	2.41% (136.45%)	11.70% (102.11%)
三連単	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	11.70% (79.86%)
総合	48.30% (90.84%)	53.98% (115.03%)	37.08% (44.00%)	69.23% (54.45%)	47.95% (69.43%)	45.18% (104.01%)	81.13% (81.52%)

あくまで芝よりなモデルだけど、根本的に三連単は全くダメ。これ、これまでの最適RMSEな36000_16720ですが、

265R	1点	芝(176R)	ダート(89R)	8頭以下(26R)	9～12頭(73R)	13頭以上(166R)	多点
単勝	21.89% (95.62%)	25.00% (114.77%)	15.73% (57.75%)	38.46% (87.31%)	27.40% (93.70%)	16.87% (97.77%)	48.30% (97.08%)
複勝	47.17% (85.43%)	51.70% (84.83%)	38.20% (86.63%)	65.38% (82.69%)	56.16% (83.56%)	40.36% (86.69%)	84.53% (89.06%)
枠連	8.60% (57.10%)	11.68% (81.68%)	3.57% (17.02%)	-- (--)	8.22% (55.34%)	7.83% (51.69%)	21.27% (78.45%)
馬連	5.28% (28.45%)	6.25% (32.61%)	3.37% (20.22%)	7.69% (16.15%)	5.48% (30.96%)	4.82% (29.28%)	18.49% (113.77%)
ワイド	18.49% (108.23%)	21.59% (72.95%)	12.36% (177.98%)	34.62% (61.15%)	21.92% (78.77%)	14.46% (128.55%)	41.89% (103.61%)
馬単	3.40% (35.21%)	4.55% (47.67%)	1.12% (10.56%)	3.85% (13.85%)	5.48% (52.05%)	2.41% (31.14%)	18.49% (125.50%)
三連複	3.77% (63.32%)	5.68% (95.34%)	0.00% (0.00%)	15.38% (55.77%)	4.11% (63.01%)	1.81% (64.64%)	13.21% (63.52%)
三連単	0.75% (152.64%)	1.14% (229.83%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	1.37% (61.23%)	0.60% (216.75%)	13.21% (56.47%)
総合	49.43% (78.70%)	55.11% (95.34%)	38.20% (46.48%)	69.23% (45.27%)	58.90% (64.83%)	42.17% (88.31%)	84.53% (77.71%)

微妙に的中率は良いものの回収率は劣る。参考までに現時点で公開しているモデルが

265R	1点	芝(176R)	ダート(89R)	8頭以下(26R)	9～12頭(73R)	13頭以上(166R)	多点
単勝	17.36% (77.51%)	17.61% (60.06%)	16.85% (112.02%)	34.62% (102.69%)	16.44% (59.45%)	15.06% (81.51%)	45.66% (79.11%)
複勝	44.53% (92.08%)	46.59% (82.33%)	40.45% (111.35%)	57.69% (80.38%)	45.21% (73.97%)	42.17% (101.87%)	83.77% (81.70%)
枠連	8.60% (80.72%)	11.68% (92.19%)	3.57% (62.02%)	-- (--)	8.22% (33.42%)	7.83% (92.77%)	19.00% (60.81%)
馬連	6.04% (67.32%)	7.39% (58.98%)	3.37% (83.82%)	15.38% (58.85%)	8.22% (40.68%)	3.61% (80.36%)	14.72% (60.33%)
ワイド	12.08% (48.98%)	15.91% (56.19%)	4.49% (34.72%)	34.62% (52.69%)	16.44% (51.51%)	6.63% (47.29%)	31.70% (85.72%)
馬単	2.26% (54.34%)	2.84% (25.17%)	1.12% (112.02%)	7.69% (81.92%)	2.74% (23.01%)	1.20% (63.80%)	14.72% (60.62%)
三連複	4.15% (164.57%)	5.68% (170.74%)	1.12% (152.36%)	19.23% (56.15%)	4.11% (32.60%)	1.81% (239.58%)	11.70% (109.02%)
三連単	1.13% (381.28%)	1.14% (33.75%)	1.12% (1,068.54%)	7.69% (228.46%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.60% (572.89%)	11.70% (115.41%)
総合	45.66% (121.70%)	48.30% (71.86%)	40.45% (218.20%)	65.38% (94.45%)	45.21% (39.33%)	42.77% (160.01%)	84.15% (95.84%)

パット見は回収率に目が行くが、的中率は悪く、検証中のログ見てると気が付くけど、年明けてから悪化してる感じ。ただ、前出の2つに比べ、芝・ダートの差がそれ程感じられない。これ、3600_19662だったりします。ああ、これ最初の数字が秒数で後の数字がRMSEです。

悩む中36000_16742は

265R	1点	芝(176R)	ダート(89R)	8頭以下(26R)	9～12頭(73R)	13頭以上(166R)	多点
単勝	20.75% (68.53%)	23.86% (80.23%)	14.61% (45.39%)	42.31% (92.69%)	24.66% (67.26%)	15.66% (65.30%)	47.55% (68.20%)
複勝	50.94% (83.13%)	59.09% (98.64%)	34.83% (52.47%)	76.92% (118.46%)	54.79% (92.88%)	45.18% (73.31%)	84.53% (81.01%)
枠連	9.05% (69.10%)	10.95% (84.89%)	5.95% (43.33%)	-- (--)	8.22% (68.36%)	8.43% (61.93%)	23.53% (74.43%)
馬連	7.17% (84.79%)	9.09% (117.44%)	3.37% (20.22%)	19.23% (72.69%)	8.22% (180.00%)	4.82% (44.82%)	19.25% (71.94%)
ワイド	18.11% (70.79%)	22.73% (86.82%)	8.99% (39.10%)	46.15% (77.31%)	20.55% (88.63%)	12.65% (61.93%)	41.13% (79.67%)
馬単	3.77% (64.64%)	5.11% (91.99%)	1.12% (10.56%)	11.54% (43.46%)	5.48% (180.27%)	1.81% (17.11%)	19.25% (65.11%)
三連複	3.77% (40.11%)	5.11% (47.73%)	1.12% (25.06%)	15.38% (41.15%)	4.11% (55.21%)	1.81% (33.31%)	14.72% (230.01%)
三連単	0.38% (2.79%)	0.57% (4.20%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.85% (28.46%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	14.72% (348.02%)
総合	52.08% (60.30%)	59.66% (76.25%)	37.08% (29.42%)	76.92% (67.75%)	54.79% (91.58%)	46.99% (44.71%)	84.53% (222.12%)

地味だけど的中率は、まあ、特にってか芝しか良くないんだけどね^^; ただ、ふと、ここまでの検証結果見ててダートより芝の方が倍近くレースがある。これ、学習に何らかの影響があっての結果かもです。

偏りは目をつぶって36000_16720で行くのが良いのかなぁと思ってます。

内緒

久しぶりに新しい芋焼酎を購入しました。

濱田酒造 内緒 1.8Lです。3本 8,250円なので2,750円です。濱田酒造は好きな蔵なのですが、この値段でこの味では残念ながらリピ無です。DIAMEの方がはるかに安くて旨いからです。いや、決して悪い訳ではなく、今もストレートで飲んでるんです。ストレートで飲んでも変な癖はなく、香りも芋っぽさがそれ程しない。でも、値段的にこの味ならもっと安いDIAMEを買います。

この所、年末年始もコスパ重視で焼酎を購入してたので、久しぶりにストレートで飲める芋焼酎ではあるので嬉しいですけどね😋

昨夜のモデル

昨夜寝る前に終わった通常用の24時間学習はRMSE 1.4018はこの学習シリーズでは最適でした。

1,781R	1点	芝(862R)	ダート(848R)	障害(71R)	8頭以下(134R)	9～12頭(439R)	13頭以上(1208R)	多点
単勝	22.63% (81.19%)	19.95% (71.97%)	25.24% (92.33%)	23.94% (60.00%)	30.60% (82.39%)	24.83% (74.62%)	20.94% (83.44%)	51.04% (76.68%)
複勝	52.44% (85.49%)	47.45% (79.87%)	56.60% (90.54%)	63.38% (93.38%)	60.45% (78.28%)	59.45% (89.36%)	49.01% (84.88%)	87.14% (84.35%)
枠連	13.39% (86.79%)	11.00% (73.78%)	14.57% (94.97%)	26.79% (134.29%)	-- (--)	17.08% (98.02%)	11.18% (77.04%)	27.55% (83.56%)
馬連	10.33% (85.04%)	8.58% (54.88%)	11.67% (113.79%)	15.49% (107.75%)	23.88% (78.28%)	13.21% (116.15%)	7.78% (74.48%)	21.79% (84.30%)
ワイド	21.79% (82.11%)	19.61% (69.76%)	23.58% (95.04%)	26.76% (77.61%)	43.28% (80.60%)	27.33% (83.85%)	17.38% (81.64%)	42.56% (85.52%)
馬単	5.50% (87.74%)	4.87% (68.20%)	6.01% (111.12%)	7.04% (45.63%)	10.45% (61.72%)	7.74% (131.34%)	4.14% (74.78%)	21.79% (82.32%)
三連複	5.22% (114.70%)	4.64% (52.83%)	5.66% (184.13%)	7.04% (36.62%)	10.45% (30.22%)	7.52% (67.65%)	3.81% (141.17%)	14.43% (87.48%)
三連単	0.90% (116.08%)	0.93% (46.32%)	0.83% (192.45%)	1.41% (50.85%)	2.99% (24.85%)	1.14% (91.59%)	0.58% (135.10%)	14.43% (86.95%)
総合	54.07% (92.48%)	49.30% (64.50%)	58.02% (121.98%)	64.79% (74.18%)	67.16% (62.33%)	60.14% (94.07%)	50.41% (94.07%)	87.70% (85.20%)

確かにポテンシャルはあるかな?相変わらずダート向きで芝は? これ、もう少しやりたいけど、時間的に新馬用をもうちょっとやって一旦新バージョンリリースに向けてまとめたいと思う。

追記 2026.2.10 18:33
連勝は止まりましたorz いや、勝ち続けるのも嬉しいが実際としてはそんなの無理だし、更に今回のは雪の影響での中止や諸々でね。しかも、オッズマスターズがらみで微妙な買い方しちゃったしorz オッズマスターズはあまり意識せずに勝負に徹した方が良いかなぁと思ってます。

今挑んでる学習

3,366R	1点	芝(1,569R)	ダート(1668R)	障害(129R)	8頭以下(195R)	9～12頭(775R)	13頭以上(2396R)	多点
単勝	22.01% (79.89%)	19.06% (71.02%)	24.28% (87.09%)	28.68% (94.81%)	29.23% (70.10%)	24.52% (85.81%)	20.62% (78.78%)	50.89% (79.15%)
複勝	51.75% (84.38%)	47.36% (81.03%)	54.98% (87.08%)	63.57% (90.31%)	59.49% (78.36%)	57.29% (87.41%)	49.33% (83.89%)	86.16% (83.32%)
枠連	12.91% (89.34%)	12.46% (101.55%)	13.02% (80.38%)	16.82% (71.96%)	-- (--)	15.35% (92.49%)	11.35% (82.98%)	26.95% (81.24%)
馬連	9.51% (79.09%)	8.92% (82.76%)	9.89% (77.46%)	11.63% (55.50%)	17.95% (55.08%)	11.74% (88.13%)	8.10% (78.12%)	20.89% (72.89%)
ワイド	21.63% (83.79%)	19.76% (81.64%)	22.78% (84.66%)	29.46% (98.60%)	36.92% (66.97%)	28.26% (92.79%)	18.24% (82.25%)	40.79% (79.53%)
馬単	4.52% (66.57%)	4.08% (69.23%)	4.86% (65.87%)	5.43% (43.26%)	8.21% (33.79%)	5.55% (68.35%)	3.88% (68.66%)	20.89% (70.19%)
三連複	5.29% (69.55%)	4.97% (58.23%)	5.46% (79.70%)	6.98% (76.05%)	13.85% (68.92%)	7.23% (76.23%)	3.96% (67.45%)	13.34% (75.48%)
三連単	0.98% (66.84%)	1.02% (39.66%)	1.02% (97.57%)	0.00% (0.00%)	3.08% (80.97%)	1.29% (30.92%)	0.71% (77.30%)	13.34% (72.70%)
総合	53.09% (77.28%)	49.14% (72.57%)	56.00% (82.49%)	63.57% (66.19%)	64.62% (64.89%)	58.45% (77.76%)	50.42% (77.43%)	86.81% (74.55%)

これ、この所試してる学習で得たRMSE 1.4313なんですが、微妙な出来です。何がやばいって、歳を取ったからか、これに使った学習データが何年からだったかの記憶に自信がないorz いや、試しに検証で１年出来る様に2024.12.31までにしたのは覚えてます。スタートは前回2015.1.1にしたのでそれよりも少なくしてるんだけど、2018.1.1にしたか、その前の年にしたのか...

3,366R	1点	芝(1,569R)	ダート(1668R)	障害(129R)	8頭以下(195R)	9～12頭(775R)	13頭以上(2396R)	多点
単勝	22.16% (82.53%)	19.06% (76.89%)	24.28% (85.58%)	32.56% (111.86%)	28.21% (72.77%)	25.16% (89.03%)	20.70% (81.23%)	50.42% (78.82%)
複勝	52.14% (87.60%)	47.55% (84.57%)	55.70% (90.05%)	62.02% (92.79%)	61.03% (88.21%)	56.65% (87.64%)	49.96% (87.54%)	86.07% (83.46%)
枠連	12.32% (77.97%)	11.40% (86.70%)	13.09% (70.83%)	12.15% (76.45%)	-- (--)	13.94% (81.88%)	11.06% (72.05%)	26.42% (75.49%)
馬連	9.24% (72.76%)	8.16% (79.24%)	10.25% (67.94%)	9.30% (56.20%)	19.49% (78.15%)	10.32% (80.36%)	8.06% (69.86%)	20.50% (70.67%)
ワイド	20.74% (82.94%)	18.99% (82.52%)	22.12% (82.84%)	24.03% (89.30%)	35.90% (67.85%)	25.03% (84.63%)	18.11% (83.62%)	41.33% (82.78%)
馬単	4.93% (64.15%)	4.21% (67.41%)	5.52% (62.46%)	6.20% (46.36%)	10.77% (85.03%)	6.19% (75.07%)	4.05% (58.91%)	20.50% (68.84%)
三連複	4.81% (69.20%)	4.27% (68.90%)	5.22% (72.15%)	6.20% (34.81%)	11.79% (70.36%)	6.58% (67.95%)	3.67% (69.52%)	13.22% (78.21%)
三連単	0.89% (72.41%)	0.64% (85.98%)	1.08% (63.03%)	1.55% (28.76%)	3.08% (108.82%)	0.90% (26.17%)	0.71% (84.41%)	13.22% (75.98%)
総合	53.48% (76.17%)	49.14% (78.87%)	56.89% (74.38%)	62.02% (66.86%)	65.13% (81.60%)	57.29% (74.09%)	51.29% (75.89%)	86.57% (75.98%)

次点のRMSE 1.4314がこれ。狙いが悪いのかの判断に困ってます。もう少し粘ってみる価値があるのかがねぇ。このシリーズの新馬戦用はこれまで１回のみしかしてないけど、RMSE 1.7345で、

329R	1点	芝(214R)	ダート(115R)	8頭以下(31R)	9～12頭(91R)	13頭以上(207R)	多点
単勝	19.45% (67.26%)	21.96% (80.05%)	14.78% (43.48%)	32.26% (81.29%)	21.98% (64.62%)	16.43% (66.33%)	44.38% (60.75%)
複勝	51.67% (91.12%)	56.07% (93.50%)	43.48% (86.70%)	74.19% (95.48%)	54.95% (95.05%)	46.86% (88.74%)	83.89% (77.54%)
枠連	10.07% (71.29%)	14.20% (105.68%)	3.67% (17.98%)	-- (--)	10.99% (71.87%)	8.70% (64.15%)	18.35% (52.59%)
馬連	7.90% (72.25%)	11.21% (105.37%)	1.74% (10.61%)	25.81% (80.00%)	9.89% (159.56%)	4.35% (32.71%)	15.20% (44.27%)
ワイド	20.67% (94.92%)	25.23% (83.64%)	12.17% (115.91%)	51.61% (85.81%)	23.08% (89.12%)	14.98% (98.84%)	38.60% (81.04%)
馬単	3.95% (33.13%)	5.61% (45.56%)	0.87% (10.00%)	12.90% (50.00%)	3.30% (24.29%)	2.90% (34.49%)	15.20% (36.49%)
三連複	3.65% (45.65%)	5.61% (70.19%)	0.00% (0.00%)	25.81% (115.48%)	3.30% (34.40%)	0.48% (40.14%)	10.94% (55.08%)
三連単	0.61% (4.77%)	0.93% (7.34%)	0.00% (0.00%)	6.45% (50.65%)	0.00% (0.00%)	0.00% (0.00%)	10.94% (40.82%)
総合	52.28% (59.83%)	57.01% (73.06%)	43.48% (35.70%)	77.42% (79.82%)	54.95% (67.36%)	47.34% (53.18%)	84.50% (48.26%)

これはこれで微妙な出来。まあ、１回のみなので、もう少しやれば化けるかも?

何にしても、どうするのが良いのかは手探りなので時間が掛かっても下手な妥協はしたくないね。

追記 2026.2.7 0:24
ちょっと記述に間違いがあったので修正しましたが、結局このシリーズは断念しました。あまり期待出来ない感じがしたのでね。新馬も何度か試したけど1.7333が何度かやって出たのみだし、通常用は1.4313のままorz いや、もう少し根気強く試せば...PCが何台もあれば色んなパターンをとことんも可能だけど、限られた資源なので^^;

4連勝したけど

無事に４連勝出来ました^^

もう少し勝てると思ったけど、欲はダメだよね。しかし、ネックは芝レースが勝負出来ないのが問題かと^^: まあ、その為に学習は続けてますが...現状では良いものが出ないのが辛い。